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Econbrowser

Visit Site - http://www.econbrowser.com/

James D.  Hamilton

A well-produced blog covering a range of contemporary economic issues. Run by James Hamilton, a professor of e [Read More]

Categories: Finance/Investing


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Latest Posts:

Drumpfarmageddon, Tabulated
Heretofore, I've approached in a piecemeal manner the assessment of the impact of massive tax cuts for the wealthy, building a really, really great wall, a final solution for the presence of undocumented immigrants, and the imposition a 45% tariff on...
Econbrowser
Wednesday, June 22, 2016


Contextualizing the North Carolina Experience
Defenders of the Kansas and Wisconsin misadventures in supply side economics keep on pointing to North Carolina as the counter-example that proves tax cuts do prompt faster growth (e.g., [1] [2]). A quick look at the data provides the following obser...
Econbrowser
Tuesday, June 21, 2016


No, I Don't Think This Is the Reason BEA is Predicting a Massive Downward Revision in GDP
Political Calculations arrives at an alarming conclusion that real GDP will be downwardly revised by a large amount when the annual benchmark revision comes out in July. The Assertion In [releas[ing] its estimates of state level Gross Domestic Produc...
Econbrowser
Saturday, June 18, 2016


Wisconsin Employment Evaluated against a Counterfactual based on Historical Correlations
The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development trumpeted May figures today. What if the relationship between US and Wisconsin employment over the 1994-2009M06 period persisted into the Walker era? We would have expected 60,000 more jobs than we go...
Econbrowser
Friday, June 17, 2016


Mass Shooting Casualties, by Religion of Perpetrator: Muslim vs. Non-Muslim, Updated
A previous post on mass shooting casualties has been widely circulated. Here I update to include recent data, and to normalize by population. An upward trend indicates the incidence of casualties is rising. Here is the aggregate series (expressed per...
Econbrowser
Wednesday, June 15, 2016


Manufacturing and the Dollar's Value
New industrial output numbers, including for manufacturing, confirm a slowdown in at least part of the tradables sector. Figure 1: Real value of the US dollar against broad basket (black, left scale), manufacturing production (red, right scale), manu...
Econbrowser
Wednesday, June 15, 2016


Kansas in (Technical) Recession
The BEA released quarterly state GDP figures today. As of 2015Q4, Kansas has just experienced two consecutive negative GDP growth, a distinction shared with only three other states — Alaska, Oklahoma and Wyoming (North Dakota experienced three quarte...
Econbrowser
Tuesday, June 14, 2016


Recession Risks: The View from Wall Street Economists
The Wall Street Journal‘s June survey of economists is out. Interestingly, no one's mean forecast is for two quarters of negative growth in 2016Q2-Q3 (or even one quarter!), but the assigned probabilities of recession remain elevated. One point 1, se...
Econbrowser
Saturday, June 11, 2016


Data Paranoia Watch: Employment Edition
Which one of these texts is drawn from a real article? What a coincidence. Just as momentum was building towards an interest rate hike by the Fed, along comes a dismal jobs report that takes any increase off the table. Contrary to the general percept...
Econbrowser
Friday, June 10, 2016


Thinking about Wages, Inflation and Productivity… and Capital's Share
On the release of the Productivity and Costs release, the WSJ reports "Weak Productivity, Rising Wages Putting Pressure on U.S. Companies: Economists fret how trends may affect inflation and broader growth". When wage compensation outruns productivit...
Econbrowser
Thursday, June 9, 2016



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