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Is America's leadership in Asia waxing or waning?

Waxing
Waning
Neutral or too soon to know
Something else — what?



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1. Patricia Pomerleau CEOExpressSelect Member
     Forum Moderator
     (11/4/2017 7:08:35 PM)
     Message ID #293008

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President Trump and his entourage have embarked on a 12-day tour of Asia, the longest of a president since George H.W. Bush in 1991. By now, the president is wrapping up his visit to Japan and will be in S. Korea, China, Vietnam, and the Philippines — in that order — before returning to the U.S.

The president has withdrawn the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the 'Asia pivot,' but it's hard to know what has replaced the agreements made by his predecessor. Here is a short speculation from the CSM:

President Trump clearly places a high priority on US relations with Asia. His 12-day trip to the region beginning this weekend – the longest by a US president since George H. W. Bush’s 1991 marathon – attests to that.

And it’s a priority the American people share with the president: Surveys consistently show that Americans consider Asia more important than any other region for furthering US security and economic interests.

But much less clear nine months into the Trump presidency is what policies and overarching vision will guide US relations with Asia, home to most of the world’s fastest-growing economies and responsible for more than 40 percent of global economic output.

President Obama had his 'Asia pivot,' but Mr. Trump knocked the legs out from under that policy when he withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the 12-nation trade deal designed to secure US economic leadership in a region increasingly dominated by China and its hybrid statist-capitalist economic model.

But if TPP and the 'pivot' are out, leaders at every one of the stops Trump will make – Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Da Nang and Hanoi in Vietnam, and Manila, with regional summits adding more leaders to the mix – will want to know what is 'in.'

With no clear policies as guideposts, leaders will be watching the unconventional American president for clues on key questions: What does 'America First' mean for relations, particularly economic, with Asia? What will Trump’s preference for bilateral relations mean for America’s traditional leadership role in multilateral arenas? Will a Trump focus on North Korea suck the air out of every other issue of interest with the US?

And underpinning them all: Is American leadership waxing or waning in Asia?

Read the rest at CSM: http://snips.ly/38G4KJ
While it's still early in the itinerary, what do you think will emerge from the administration's Asia trip?
  • What will be the focus and highlight? Trade? Security? Threats from N. Korea?

  • Since President Trump has withdrawn from the TPP under the banner of 'America First,' should some sort of trade program replace TPP? What?

  • N. Korea has been rather quiet lately. Any thoughts?

  • Earlier, European leaders did not seem to know what to do with President Trump's direct manner. We wonder how Asian leaders will react ...

  • In contrast to President Obama, President Trump takes a bilateral approach to agreements. How do you think 'America First' will turn out in Asia?

  • Not on the itinerary, but not unrelated either: What about India? After China, India perhaps is the world's largest under-tapped economy and yet remains largely a mystery to many Americans.


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Message edited by user at 11/5/2017 11:46:09 AM

2. Noel Meyer
     (11/6/2017 4:53:16 AM)
     Message ID #293059

This message is in response to Patricia Pomerleau ( message id #293008 )  View All Related Messages

"President Trump clearly places a high priority on US relations with Asia. His 12-day trip to the region beginning this weekend – the longest by a US president since George H. W. Bush’s 1991 marathon – attests to that.

YOU RE CONFUSING "activity" for "action"

"But much less clear nine months into the Trump presidency is what policies and overarching vision will guide US relations with Asia, home to most of the world’s fastest-growing economies and responsible for more than 40 percent of global economic output.

With no clear policies as guideposts, leaders will be watching the unconventional American president for clues on key questions: What does 'America First' mean for relations, particularly economic, with Asia?"


I expect Trump is spending so much time in Asia as a means to escape his failures here at home. NO 'repeal & replace', no wall, no tax reform, civil unrest and possibly ties to Russian interference with American elections.

"N. Korea has been rather quiet lately. Any thoughts?"

Sun Tzu comes to mind, hitting your enemy when and where your enemy does not think you will.

China's 'persuasion' and control over N. Korea is holding back the insanity till China can make use of it.

"Earlier, European leaders did not seem to know what to do with President Trump's direct manner. We wonder how Asian leaders will react ..."

Just my opinion, but the Asians will see his bluster just as that - senseless, useless cries of a madman who has lost the will of the American people. China's leader knows how to consolidate and use true power and even the frog in N. Korea knows how much control he enjoys in his tiny land. Japan looks upon the madman with growing surrender to the insanity such 'direct manner' portrays in the intricacies of world affairs and the 'plans within plans' of other Asian nations.

3. D Robb
     (11/6/2017 5:26:51 AM)
     Message ID #293060

This message is in response to Patricia Pomerleau ( message id #293008 )  View All Related Messages

trump has been too lazy to read briefing books, consider the many alternatives available and to choose one. That has meant that he has had no policy or direction to push as ‘his’ policy, and build consensus behind. He has been so inept at legislating that the GOP Congress has repeatedly asked him not to involve himself while they are attempting to write and pass bills. His lack of accomplishment speaks for itself.
Internationally, trump has repeatedly undercut his Secretaries of State and Defense, and caused equal confusion among our allies as to what US objectives are. It began with NATO and has continued with the US response to N Korea.
His Tweets have made things worse. Even trumpites have come to believe they are counterproductive and that he should stop, especially when attacks and belittles individuals.
All of these negatives are much more negative in Asia where “Face” is all important. Business and diplomacy is carried out very politely with intensive preparation and behind the scenes building of support. Observing the social norms is important, especially showing respect for the country by showing respect for the leadership. Understanding your ally’s or foe’s point of view is important. None of these necessities are things that trump does well. He can’t even keep a pleasant or poker face at joint press conferences.
With the US having withdrawn from the TPP, China has been dealt a huge hand. The future does not look good. All the US has to offer is the US Navy keeping the sea lanes open. That has not gone well, and China is busy building and fortifying bases to reclaim the South China Sea as its own.
I am hoping for the best, but I do not see trump accomplishing anything significant on this trip. I see it as an attempt to change the subject from the recent indictments in Mueller’s investigation. More indictments are coming.

4. D Robb
     (11/6/2017 5:54:26 AM)
     Message ID #293061

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There is no question that, at the moment, US leadership is waning. The NYT Editorial opined today that trump has already undercut his two main priorities for the trip. He has urged China to exert more pressure on North Korea by completely cutting off purchases of North Korean coal, closing North Korean bank accounts and sending North Korean workers home. Mr. Xi has repeatedly rejected these demands, because doing so could destabilize North Korea, and he has pushed for a negotiated solution to the crisis. Trump undercut his own Secretary of State has refused talks, preferring bombastic threats to “destroy” North Korea that will be magnified if he repeats them in Asia.
Trump is pressing a campaign theme, and pushing hard for bilateral trade deals instead of the TPP. However, his administration is divided over trade policy, and the most he may get out of the Beijing visit is some commercial agreements between Chinese and American companies.

5. Thomas C CEOExpressSelect Member
     (11/6/2017 6:47:43 AM)
     Message ID #293062

This message is in response to Noel Meyer ( message id #293059 )  View All Related Messages

LOL!

Ya, he's running away from Donna Brazile.

On deck? Tony Podesta. Which opens a can of worms on Uranium One.

6. D Robb
     (11/6/2017 7:35:00 AM)
     Message ID #293063

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The administration has attempted to claim its their pending tax reform bill that has enticed Broadcom to return its headquarters to the US. As previously posted, it is more related to the fact that the tax benefits Singapore offered are expiring. Another reason might be Broadcom’s attempt to build administration support for its unsolicited offer to buy Qualcomm, in a deal that that would be the largest technology acquisition ever.
The $70 a share bid, equal to more than $130 billion, is comprised of $60 in cash and $10 per share in stock. It also include Broadcom's willingness to have Qualcomm complete its pending acquisition of NXP Semiconductors for more than $38 billion in cash, sources told CNBC, which reported Sunday evening the offer was likely coming Monday.
But the bid stands whether that acquisition is completed or not, Broadcom said.

7. Michael O'Neill
     (11/6/2017 8:18:09 AM)
     Message ID #293064

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Why narrow it to Asia? It's waning everywhere. Trump has scuttled the State Department to the point Tillerson is a eunuch and confused countries no longer able to get responses have begun calling Nikki Haley. Why would the world respect a reality show host?

8. Noel Meyer
     (11/6/2017 8:24:24 AM)
     Message ID #293065

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Is America's leadership in Asia waxing or waning?

America's "leadership" is waning at home and abroad.

1. Police are being shot and their actions are under investigation

2. A special prosecutor is investigation and casting doubt upon the Trump's campaign operations.

3. Republicans were shot playing baseball, Rand Paul was attacked by his next door neighbor.

4 White supremacy is coming out without fear of federal rebuke or investigation by that lawn gnome Sessions.

5. America is less effective against ISIS and Russian oligarchs as such groups laugh at American law and national intelligence.

The list is growing. I won't say it all started this year but
" European leaders did not seem to know what to do with President Trump's direct manner. We wonder how Asian leaders will react " even as Americans question the Velveeta Raccoon's TWITTERING.

9. Noel Meyer
     (11/6/2017 8:35:00 AM)
     Message ID #293066

This message is in response to Patricia Pomerleau ( message id #293008 )  View All Related Messages

"What will be the focus and highlight? Trade? Security? Threats from N. Korea?
What about India? After China, India perhaps is the world's largest under-tapped economy and yet remains largely a mystery to many Americans."


1. How can Trump focus on trade when his America first strategy is jobs here at home? Japanese car makers Trump has the audacity to jokingly ask them to stop shipping cars to America and build them here!

HELLO Donald! Asian nations have population problems needing jobs in their homelands even worse than America needs jobs.

2. America is bankrupt. Trump can't throw money he doesn't have at any problems. So the lil' hands guy will throw insults, level fear-mongering at 'the evil' and generally won't do anything of value.

3. Trump visits South Korea. N.Korea is only miles away and its missiles can reach South Korea. Any betting on whether that frog will nuke Trump in South Korea killing a sitting US president, US troops as well South Korea military and political leaders?

4. India - massive poverty, ethnic classes, government corruption sounds like Trump's America of failed promises and extremism and criminal actions.

10. Tams Bixby CEOExpressSelect Member
     (11/6/2017 8:58:56 AM)
     Message ID #293067

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Well, as usual I voted "Something Else" and here's why (this time around):


GHWB (#41) famously said he considered President Trump (i.e. the Velveeta Raccoon) was a "Blowhard" and FWIW I agree. Hitching your wagon to Trump is like taking a walk through an unkempt corral. You really really have to watch where you step.

And following along after him is dangerous since you never know what he'll say or when he'll say it. The only thing you CAN say is that unless he's kept on a very short leash whatever comes out of his mouth or perhaps from his thumbs (in either case courtesy of his narcissism) will be half-baked and poorly supported by a well-reasoned and in-depth understanding of the facts.

For these reasons the Asian Leaders will listen to what he says and go along (as long as they themselves agree w/ what he says) but will reserve the right to disagree and proceed their own way if and when they disagree. This means the influence long wielded by the U.S. and U.S. policy has waned since Trump took office and I suspect will continue to wane until either Trump shows some maturity or somehow is replaced in office. It would be nice if the former were the case (it's less traumatic to the country and world) but I won't be holding my breath.
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