|
Apr 15, 2024
U.S. retail sales surprised to the upside, but several risks remain.
|
|
Apr 15, 2024
April 15 marks the official close of tax season, but the story is not over.
|
|
Apr 15, 2024
The initial muted response by oil prices to Iran's attack on Israel could be short-lived.
|
|
Apr 15, 2024
Inflation remains above the Fed's target, forestalling the rate cuts necessary to conclude the economy has soft-landed; but given positive developments on the economy's supply side, there is reason to be optimistic that inflation is headed to target, the Fed will soon ease, and the expansion will continue.
|
|
Apr 15, 2024
Real prices on the U.S. secondary market remain 30% higher than pre-pandemic levels.
|
|
Apr 12, 2024
It's too early to tell whether another unfavorable inflation print will weigh on consumers.
|
|
Apr 12, 2024
A wealth of housing market data are also due next week.
|
|
Apr 12, 2024
The spy measure has drawn a significant amount of controversy regarding privacy rights in general, though former President Trump has his own bone to pick with the law.
|
|
Apr 12, 2024
Two surveys reveal that Canadians are feeling more optimistic.
|
|
Apr 12, 2024
Inflation's graceful moderation in 2023 appears to have stalled with the turning of the calendar.
|
|
Apr 12, 2024
Tensions are at risk of escalating in the Middle East.
|
|
Apr 12, 2024
New estimates from the Congressional Budget Office paint a vastly different picture of recent immigration.
|
|
Apr 11, 2024
Inflation remains above target and central banks are hesitant to lower interest rates.
|
|
Apr 11, 2024
Fewer businesses are responding to employment surveys, raising questions about the accuracy of estimates.
|
|
Apr 10, 2024
March's hot CPI print will delay the Fed's plans to begin loosening policy.
|
|
Apr 09, 2024
Despite a strong economy and robust job growth, U.S. small businesses face challenges.
|
|
Apr 09, 2024
The delinquency rate on auto loans jumped 14 basis points in March to its highest since April 2010.
|
|
Apr 09, 2024
The delinquency rate on auto loans jumped 14 basis points in March to its highest since April 2010.
|
|
Apr 09, 2024
Our below-consensus forecast calls for 0.2% growth in the core rate.
|
|
Apr 09, 2024
More small businesses raised prices in March, adding to inflation pressures.
|
|
Apr 09, 2024
March's job report came in hot, but minimal monetary policy implications meant investors weren't too rattled.
|
|
Apr 08, 2024
After a quiet start, this week will see a number of important inflation indicators.
|
|
Apr 05, 2024
The labor market continues to deliver a string of impressive performances.
|
|
Apr 05, 2024
Projected growth in the March CPI would bring the annual rate up from 3.2% in February to 3.4%.
|
|
Apr 05, 2024
Each year, around 20% of individual income taxes due are left unpaid.
|
|
Apr 05, 2024
Increased immigration has been a net positive for U.S. economic growth.
|
|
Apr 05, 2024
The housing market continues to cool.
|
|
Apr 05, 2024
The first quarter of 2024 saw a booming 829,000 jobs added in the U.S.
|
|
Apr 05, 2024
The White House did not specify how support for Israel would change if its demands were not met.
|
|
Apr 04, 2024
We provide monthly updates to our 2024 presidential election prediction to assess the impact of new economic data and changes in our U.S. national and state forecasts.
|
|
Apr 04, 2024
The U.S. economy likely gained 220,000 jobs in March.
|
|
Apr 04, 2024
We look for the economy to have added 220,000 jobs on net in March.
|
|
Apr 03, 2024
Improving affordability is helping U.S. auto sales.
|
|
Apr 03, 2024
Like the Federal Reserve, we mostly looked through the hot CPI reports at the start of 2024 and expect policy will soon begin to be eased.
|
|
Apr 02, 2024
New data on job openings and labor turnover did little to alter the outlook.
|
|
Apr 01, 2024
The tone has been set for the week with an upside surprise to the ISM manufacturing index; the focus now turns to the labor market.
|
|
Apr 01, 2024
The Fed's favorite basket got a little more expensive in February, but still had some sweet surprises.
|
|
Apr 01, 2024
What are the economic consequences of the deadly collapse of an important river crossing in Baltimore?
|
|
Apr 01, 2024
The U.S. tax season is more than halfway over and there are a number of important dynamics to watch.
|
|
Mar 29, 2024
Three key U.S. economic reports were released Friday, closing out a busy week for data.
|
|
Mar 29, 2024
The U.S. economic calendar will keep busy following the Easter weekend as a flurry of jobs and manufacturing data are released.
|
|
Mar 29, 2024
The evolving mix of industry wage growth signals deceleration ahead.
|
|
Mar 29, 2024
An extended disruption at the Port of Baltimore could mean a supply shock that extends to Asia and potentially reverberates back into global supply chains.
|
|
Mar 28, 2024
We expect that the core PCE deflator rose 0.3% again in February.
|
|
Mar 28, 2024
The banking system is on solid ground but a sense of fragility remains.
|
|
Mar 28, 2024
We expect that the core PCE deflator rose 0.3% again in February.
|
|
Mar 27, 2024
The tragedy adds risk but does not fundamentally alter the U.S. or Maryland outlooks.
|
|
Mar 27, 2024
Tuesday morning's tragedy creates risk but does not fundamentally alter the U.S. or Maryland outlooks.
|
|
Mar 27, 2024
If OPEC decides not to wind down its production cuts, growth in global oil demand will have to be met by non-OPEC producers and existing inventories.
|
|
Mar 26, 2024
Despite a strong labor market, consumer confidence remains in an extended holding pattern.
|
|
Mar 26, 2024
Wild swings and atypical drivers have ended.
|
|
Mar 26, 2024
How do we slice the economic pie?
|
|
Mar 26, 2024
We expect the unemployment rate to edge up to 4% by the end of the year before peaking just above that in mid-2025.
|
|
Mar 25, 2024
Sales fell slightly, but they remain on the high end of the pre-pandemic range.
|
|
Mar 25, 2024
Congress and the White House signed a $1.2 trillion bill to fund the rest of the government through September.
|
|
Mar 25, 2024
The runup in stock prices and housing values since the pandemic is eye-popping, reflecting the strong economy and helping to power it. But prices may be too pricey and vulnerable to a significant correction. Asset prices would quickly swing from providing a tailwind to growth to potentially undermining it.
|
|
Mar 25, 2024
We expect performance to worsen, though much of the deterioration has already played out.
|
|
Mar 22, 2024
The U.S. economic calendar closed with a whisper after the FOMC drew most of this week's attention.
|
|
Mar 22, 2024
Fed policymakers are more upbeat about a soft landing than they were in December.
|
|
Mar 22, 2024
Markets have been more reactive to certain economic releases than in prior periods.
|
|
Mar 22, 2024
Tensions between the Biden administration and Texas mount as the border crisis intensifies.
|
|
Mar 22, 2024
Despite a cooler-than-expected CPI report, rent growth is still piping hot.
|
|
Mar 21, 2024
Wednesday's FOMC projections indicate the Fed considers recent CPI data more noise than signal.
|
|
Mar 21, 2024
President Biden has the upper hand heading into the election.
|
|
Mar 21, 2024
We consider two adverse scenarios for China's property market.
|
|
Mar 21, 2024
The pandemic and its aftershocks have left scars, but damage has been uneven across the globe.
|
|
Mar 20, 2024
As expected, the FOMC opted to leave the fed funds rate range unchanged at its March meeting.
|
|
Mar 20, 2024
The White House has announced the biggest award yet, approximately $8.5 billion in direct subsidies to Intel along with up to $11 billion in loans.
|
|
Mar 20, 2024
In our March baseline, rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2024 are slightly delayed, now beginning in June and with three instead of four by year's end.
|
|
Mar 19, 2024
After a downbeat January, building activity roared back to life in February.
|
|
Mar 19, 2024
Last week brought a higher-than-anticipated inflation report, but is it cause for concern?
|
|
Mar 19, 2024
Housing services aren't the only thing boosting inflation, nor is inflation uniformly higher than pre-pandemic norms.
|
|
Mar 18, 2024
U.S. lawmakers have yet to reach an agreement on the second batch of appropriations, while the Fed will likely hold interest rates steady.
|
|
Mar 18, 2024
The relationship between hiring intentions and U.S. monthly job gains has broken down since the pandemic.
|
|
Mar 18, 2024
How has the U.S. managed to slow inflation and avoid a recession?
|
|
Mar 15, 2024
All eyes will be on next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
|
|
Mar 15, 2024
A decline in expectations weighed on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
|
|
Mar 15, 2024
Real GDP growth in the U.S. is tracking at 2.1% in the first quarter.
|
|
Mar 15, 2024
Businesses bankruptcy filings reached a decade-long high in December 2023.
|
|
Mar 15, 2024
CRE prices will fall short term, but the banking sector is prepared to weather the storm.
|
|
Mar 15, 2024
Despite House passage, its fate is unclear in the Senate.
|
|
Mar 14, 2024
After falling sharply to start off the year, retail sales moved higher in February.
|
|
Mar 14, 2024
Early numbers indicate only a slight easing this year.
|
|
Mar 13, 2024
After falling 0.8% in January, we expect U.S. retail sales bounce back in February.
|
|
Mar 13, 2024
Security fears may spur massive immigration to the U.S.
|
|
Mar 13, 2024
It feels like just yesterday that egg prices were soaring...because it was.
|
|
Mar 13, 2024
It feels like just yesterday that egg prices were soaring...because it was.
|
|
Mar 13, 2024
Household debt is stabilizing, but delinquencies are rising.
|
|
Mar 12, 2024
For the second straight month, the consumer price index rose faster than expected.
|
|
Mar 12, 2024
Lags and measurement issues with OER could lead to incorrect conclusions about inflation.
|
|
Mar 11, 2024
Moody's Analytics expects inflation to moderate slightly in February.
|
|
Mar 11, 2024
Last week's calendar was full of labor indicators, notably the jobs report and JOLTS.
|
|
Mar 11, 2024
We expect headline and core CPI rose 0.3% in February.
|
|
Mar 11, 2024
Determining the right time to stop the Fed's balance sheet drawdown is more art than science.
|
|
Mar 11, 2024
Households across the income spectrum are trying to make sense of the economy's missed fundamentals and uncertain prospects.
|
|
Mar 08, 2024
The February employment report was more of a mixed bag than recent months.
|
|
Mar 08, 2024
February's key CPI report will come one week ahead of the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
|
|
Mar 08, 2024
A heady 275,000 jobs were added in February as January's figure was revised downward significantly.
|
|
Mar 08, 2024
President Joe Biden announced a U.S. military effort to build a port off the coast of Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid to Palestinians.
|
|
Mar 08, 2024
Spreads between both investment-grade and junk-rated corporate bond yields and U.S. Treasuries fell in February to their narrowest levels in more than two years, a sign of overall investor confidence growing.
|
|
