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INSEAD Global Economy Blog

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Antonio Fatas  Ilian Mihov

Antonio Fatas and Ilian Mihov are professors of economics at INSEAD, an international business school with cam [Read More]

Categories: Business | Economics | Finance/Investing | International Business

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Latest Posts:

Stock market getting cheaper (relative to bonds)
Several indicators are signaling an increase in the probability of a recession. Most of these indicators are variables that have shown to be statistically leading the recession but they cannot always be seen as the cause of one (for example, an inver...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Thursday, August 29, 2019

Redefining money in a digital age
Economics textbooks use a definition of money as an asset that can be used as a means of payment, that constitutes a unit of account and serves as a store of value. This definition is being used often in debates about new forms of digital money and p...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Libra: not a currency board and (maybe) not a stable currency
Libra, the cryptocurrency backed by Facebook (and the other members of the Libra association) was announced yesterday. The web site and the white paper refer to the new currency as a stable currency:"Libra is designed to be a currency where any user ...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Wednesday, June 19, 2019

This time might not be different
Estimating the probability of a recession over a short horizon has so far proven to be a challenging task for economists. Each cycle looks slightly different from the previous one and trying to come up with precise indicators of crises leads to eithe...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Friday, June 7, 2019

The 2020 (US) Recession
Summary: This post is based on a research note I wrote asking whether low unemployment is sustainable. The answer is a clear no for the US. Low level of unemployment are good predictors of the tail risk event of a recession, a sharp increase in unemp...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Tuesday, March 12, 2019

How low is low for Chinese GDP growth?
The deceleration in the Chinese economy over the last decade has raised concerns about the sustainability of the Chinese economic "miracle". But is that deceleration unusual when compared to other countries? What is to be expected in the coming years...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Monday, December 17, 2018

Global Rebalancing
Prior to the Global Financial Crisis the world economy experienced a period of increasing global imbalances where a group of countries saw their surpluses increase rapidly while, on the other side, a group of countries increased their deficits. These...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Digital money and payments
New technologies in the financial sector are opening the door for potential disruptions: cryptocurrencies, M-Pesa, WeChat,... Many of them are seen as alternatives to either traditional currencies issued by central banks or to the intermediation role...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Is the Great Moderation back?
The "Great Moderation" was a term used to describe the reduction in business cycle volatility observed in several advanced economies. It started in the mid-1980s and it coincided with the period of time where inflation had successfully brought down t...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Monday, September 10, 2018

Lost decades: Italy 3 - Japan 0.
The last decade has not been good for many advanced economies. The Global Financial Crisis, a second recession in the Euro area and central banks hitting the zero lower bound have led to disappointing GDP growth rates. But GDP growth rates can be a  ...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Wednesday, June 6, 2018

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