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INSEAD Global Economy Blog

Visit Site - http://fatasmihov.blogspot.com/

Antonio Fatas  Ilian Mihov

Antonio Fatas and Ilian Mihov are professors of economics at INSEAD, an international business school with cam [Read More]

Categories: Business | Economics | Finance/Investing | International Business


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Latest Posts:

This time might not be different
Estimating the probability of a recession over a short horizon has so far proven to be a challenging task for economists. Each cycle looks slightly different from the previous one and trying to come up with precise indicators of crises leads to eithe...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Friday, June 7, 2019


The 2020 (US) Recession
Summary: This post is based on a research note I wrote asking whether low unemployment is sustainable. The answer is a clear no for the US. Low level of unemployment are good predictors of the tail risk event of a recession, a sharp increase in unemp...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Tuesday, March 12, 2019


How low is low for Chinese GDP growth?
The deceleration in the Chinese economy over the last decade has raised concerns about the sustainability of the Chinese economic "miracle". But is that deceleration unusual when compared to other countries? What is to be expected in the coming years...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Monday, December 17, 2018


Global Rebalancing
Prior to the Global Financial Crisis the world economy experienced a period of increasing global imbalances where a group of countries saw their surpluses increase rapidly while, on the other side, a group of countries increased their deficits. These...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Tuesday, November 27, 2018


Digital money and payments
New technologies in the financial sector are opening the door for potential disruptions: cryptocurrencies, M-Pesa, WeChat,... Many of them are seen as alternatives to either traditional currencies issued by central banks or to the intermediation role...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Wednesday, November 14, 2018


Is the Great Moderation back?
The "Great Moderation" was a term used to describe the reduction in business cycle volatility observed in several advanced economies. It started in the mid-1980s and it coincided with the period of time where inflation had successfully brought down t...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Monday, September 10, 2018


Lost decades: Italy 3 - Japan 0.
The last decade has not been good for many advanced economies. The Global Financial Crisis, a second recession in the Euro area and central banks hitting the zero lower bound have led to disappointing GDP growth rates. But GDP growth rates can be a  ...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Wednesday, June 6, 2018


It's a (low inflation) trap!
Mark Carney did his best yesterday to justify the decision of keeping interest rates at 0.5% at the same time that it was promising that the economic momentum will be regained and that interest rates will have to rise soon.Unfortunately, this is not ...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Friday, May 11, 2018


The shrinking (US) Risk Premium
As the US stock market continues to climb and reaches "record-high" levels, questions on overvaluation and bubbles become more common. Robert Shiller CAPE measure of the US stock market shows now a market that is at a higher level than during the Gre...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Friday, January 19, 2018


The narrative of high debt and powerful central banks
In 2017 GDP growth picked up solidifying a global expansion phase that had previously been slow and erratic. The number of countries growing at rates consistent with their potential increased to levels not seen since prior to the global financial cri...
INSEAD Global Economy Blog
Friday, January 5, 2018



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