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Will Trump's Trade War stall and crash the economy, or will it reshape and replace the world trade structure created by the US after WWII?

Stall and crash the economy
Reshape and grow the economy
Something else

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1. Patricia Pomerleau CEOExpressSelect Member
     Forum Moderator
     (6/24/2018 7:58:25 PM)
     Message ID #306289

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Many Economists are worried that President Donald Trump's recent trade crackdown could slow down US economic growth, according to a new survey.

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Outlook survey asked 45 economists their forecasts over the next few quarters and how a several issues, including Trump's trade policies, could change those projections.

President Donald Trump's trade war is supposed to help boost America's job market, but new tariffs could actually make things ugly for US workers.

On Thursday, Trump announced that the US would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from three key US allies: Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. The move follows earlier metals tariffs on countries around the world.

Peter Navarro, Trump's protectionist-leaning trade adviser, wrote in a USA Today op-ed that the metals tariffs will be a boon for American workers.

But economists and trade experts say the ultimate result will be a net loss in US jobs — perhaps in the hundreds of thousands.

The tariffs will likely boost the price of steel and aluminum in the US, since metal imports will be subject to the additional tax. These higher prices are good news for steel and aluminum manufacturers, but they present a problem for companies that use those metals.

Increased costs for businesses that use steel and aluminum will put pressure on profits and force those companies to cut costs. Some of the necessary cost cutting is likely to come from the workforce, leading to layoffs.

Joseph Francois and Laura M. Baughman, economists at consulting group The Trade Partnership, found in a recent study that the number of jobs lost in industries that rely on steel and aluminum to produce goods would far outweigh the jobs protected in the metals industry.

The recent spate of tariffs and protectionist policies did not earn high marks:

  • Just 12.2% of those surveyed thought Trump's policies would end up being a net positive for the economy.
  • Of those, 0% said the measures would be strongly positive.
  • On the other side 46.3% said the tariffs would be marginally negative
  • 26.8% said the moves would be moderately negative,
  • and 2.4% said they would be strongly negative.

The survey asked economists at major Wall Street banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, academic economists at universities, and economists at trade groups like the Chamber of Commerce to give their forecasts through 2019. The median forecast for US GDP growth in 2018 was 2.8% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.

However, Trump's advisors believe that imposing US tariffs on other countries will get them to bend to the US's will and get rid of their import taxes on US goods. Robert Scott, senior economist and director of trade and manufacturing policy research at the Economic Policy Institute, who says tariffs are long overdue — as long as they're part of a larger economic strategy.

So, most economists think that a trade war is a bad tactic in an economic strategy. However, there are a few who believe that its long overdue as other countries have been taking advantage of the US.

What do you think? Disaster or opportunity or something else?

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2. D Robb
     (6/25/2018 5:59:13 AM)
     Message ID #306293

This message is in response to Patricia Pomerleau ( message id #306289 )  View All Related Messages

Patricia, you don't need your polls to tell you that Trump's tariffs are unpopular - all around the world, and within the US. US farmers can testify that the initial responses from our former allies have hurt them, and car manufacturers appear to be next.
Interestingly, foreign countries are now openly talking about going after Trump businesses. China initially reacted by playing nice with Trump businesses in hopes of getting favorable results, especially Ivanka's, but that may change.

3. Noel Meyer
     (6/25/2018 7:04:55 AM)
     Message ID #306294

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Trade war or "PROTECTIONISM"? There is a difference - One acknowledges Fairness, one denotes failure to compete.

"Robert Scott, senior economist and director of trade and manufacturing policy research at the Economic Policy Institute, who says tariffs are long overdue — as long as they're part of a larger economic strategy."

Trump's campaign goes for 'clean coal' don't know where it will come from when RENEWABLE ENERGY, natural gas and other programs not only exist, but are cheaper than coal.

Steel and aluminum workers are UNION JOBS are they not. So are coal jobs and Trump is championing them both only to create attacks on UNION MEMBERSHIP in almost every industry.

"as long as they're part of a larger economic strategy."

Trump has been in campaign mode since the 2016 election paying off his base with policies that do not make overall economic sense for the nation. Throwing $hit against the wall to see what his supporters like is NOT "part of a larger economic strategy."

What's NEXT? What happens to bourbon and motorcycles and other industries hit by foreign tariffs? What is Trump's policy for the collateral damage his tariffs cause?

Steel and aluminum......... maybe of strategic concern to the nation, but in a global economy where are the lines especially when AMERICAN Corporations own international sources sold in America?

4. Fred Herrera
     (6/25/2018 7:16:31 AM)
     Message ID #306295

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will it reshape and replace the world trade structure created by the US after WWII?

Truly Reshape and help world structure for a better world, just like he’s making immigration better, example:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on Sunday that people who enter the United States illegally should be sent back immediately to where they came from without any judicial process, likening them to invaders who are trying to "break into" the country.
Good idea..crooks are bad guys.

5. D Robb
     (6/25/2018 7:29:47 AM)
     Message ID #306296

This message is in response to Fred Herrera ( message id #306295 )  View All Related Messages

You do realize that your two ideas are not related, don't you?

It is like saying that you don't like blonds. Good idea. Dumb women are bad for the country.

Immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than domestically born Americans. Immigrants have higher average incomes than domestically born Americans.
Some of the reasons for the last is that immigrants value education more than domestically born Americans, are more highly motivated, and are willing to travel to where the jobs are.

6. D James
     (6/25/2018 7:57:41 AM)
     Message ID #306297

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Not "Trump's Trade War". It is "America Trades With the World and Safeguards Its Citizens". A 21st Century development that takes into account what is rather than the architecture of 1946, or even 1996. As the President himself stated "...“‘Ultimately that’s what you want, you want tariff free, no barriers, and you want no subsides because you have some countries subsidizing industries and that’s not fair,’ Trump said. ‘So you go tariff free, you go barrier free, you go subsidy free.…’”

"Free trade" - isn't, at least in the terms of what is. So, let's work toward understandable and coherent policies that benefit all parties, but in the end place our own citizens first. Frankly, it's about time. If the chattering classes and antis would just let the adults in the room clean up the mess their daddies and granddaddies made, life would be much better.

Oh, and in the context of this discussion, how about after Paul Ryan gets out of Dodge and Jim Jordan becomes next Speaker of the House, legislation be furthered toward implementation of real tax reform that is more than just a tax cut? Either a flat tax a la that proposed by Steve Forbes in the 90s or, better, yet, a national sales tax to replace the current income tax, would do more to generate jobs and an economy with legs than any tinkering around the edges.

Have a good day. Need to do my part for the economy and do some work. There's plenty of it, and it's growing.

7. Michael O'Neill
     (6/25/2018 8:31:13 AM)
     Message ID #306298

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The problem is it depends upon Dennison, the worst presidential deal maker in history.

MY Times 2 days ago: "His 17 months in office have in fact been an exercise in futility for the art-of-the-deal president. No deal on immigration. No deal on health care. No deal on gun control. No deal on spending cuts. No deal on Nafta. No deal on China trade. No deal on steel and aluminum imports. No deal on Middle East peace. No deal on the Qatar blockade. No deal on Syria. No deal on Russia. No deal on Iran. No deal on climate change. No deal on Pacific trade."

8. Michael O'Neill
     (6/25/2018 9:00:26 AM)
     Message ID #306299

This message is in response to D James ( message id #306297 )  View All Related Messages

Forbes magazine doesn't even support the Fair Tax. The only entity I find supporting it is, most likely to sell books. Everyone who has done the math concludes it is a recessive tax even with the "prebate." They also conclude it will massively expand the deficit, although that point is now moot with conservatives.

9. Patricia Pomerleau CEOExpressSelect Member
     Forum Moderator
     (6/25/2018 9:16:34 AM)
     Message ID #306300

This message is in response to D James ( message id #306297 )  View All Related Messages

Well then you need to talk with the republican Wall Street Journal and most of the other conservative press.

Wall street HATES this trump trade war.


Stocks sink on trade fears, oil falls

10. Heiress Jones
     (6/25/2018 9:18:40 AM)
     Message ID #306301

This message is in response to Fred Herrera ( message id #306295 )  View All Related Messages

That is the most common sense post I've seen on this forum. The rest have mostly been hysterical nonsense.

What is that saying; "keep it simple stupid"

To all the lefties, stop trying to complicate everything using phony 'logic' and claiming to be caring patriots.

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