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Yahoo! BooksAug 20, 2019
Donald Trump Can Win Re-Election. But New Polls Show He's Right to Worry
(Bloomberg) -- Despite a barrage of polls that show him losing to Democratic rivals, Donald Trump's re-election hopes are far from doomed. But he's vulnerable on the two most important predictors: presidential approval ratings and the state of the economy.Trump's approval rating is 43% in two new surveys by NBC/Wall Street Journal and Fox News. Despite low unemployment and record stock market highs, his approval has averaged in the low 40s steadily through his presidency.Set against recent history, that's a dangerous place to be. On the eve of their successful re-elections, Presidents Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton all had approval ratings in positive territory, according to Gallup tracking polls. Worse yet, Trump's inflammatory and divisive style of politics has cemented a high negative rating and left him little room to grow.Despite all that, Trump could very well win in November 2020. He's raising more money than any Democrat and has the backing of a Republican Party apparatus that is working to define his foes as radical and out of touch. His geographic advantage is so strong he could lose the popular vote by 5 million and still win, according to one analysis.Economic LandmineThe most important uncertainty for Trump is the economy. Since World War II, presidents have won a second term unless they oversaw a recession on the road to Election Day — George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1980 were felled by a downturn.The U.S. economy has sputtered in recent days, with s
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