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Sudan marked four years since a bloody civil war began between its national army and the powerful Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group. The RSF revolted against the Sudanese Armed Forces after a 2021 military coup left it with diminished political power. The coup itself upended the civilian-led democratic revolution that ousted Sudan's longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Both the RSF and SAF have been accused of major war crimes since the conflict began, reportedly carrying out ethnic cleansing, systemic sexual violence and starvation tactics on the country's civilian population.
"This war is not just fought on the bodies of civilians by happenstance. It's not incidental to the fighting. It is precisely the point. This war is a war of succession between those who want to inherit the military security state," says Sudanese political analyst Kholood Khair, "and they're doing so in large part not just by fighting each other, but also by diminishing as much as possible the revolutionary fervor and the calls for civilian democratic rule in Sudan." Khair adds that the burgeoning U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, separated from Sudan by the Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea, threatens to deepen the humanitarian crisis in Sudan, as supply chain disruptions make agricultural production even harder and opportunities for resource exploitation incentivize other countries to turn the conflict into even more of a "proxy war."
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The world's worst humanitarian crisis threatens to engulf the wider region.
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After the first round of ceasefire negotiations in Pakistan collapsed over the weekend, we speak to two former nuclear negotiators about prospects for ending the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, including what another nuclear deal might look like. Robert Malley, a U.S. negotiator for the 2015 nuclear deal (which President Trump withdrew from in his first term), says Trump's "mercurial" behavior makes it difficult to predict his objectives and the course of any future talks. "Iran was in full compliance with the JCPOA" and was blindsided by the U.S.'s decision to pull out of the deal, says Seyed Hossein Mousavian, who served as spokesperson for Iran's nuclear negotiation team from 2003 to 2005. Now its leaders "don't know whether the U.S. is really for diplomacy or not."
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"The situation is so dynamic that at the moment commitment [from partners] does not constitute delivery," Ukraine Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said.
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