|
Sep 23, 2022
Household financial burdens rose for the fifth consecutive quarter in the second quarter as growth in debt payments and obligations strengthened while accelerating income growth failed to match the rise in obligations. Despite the gains, burdens remain extremely low by historic standards and have yet to return to levels seen prior to the pandemic. The financial obligations ratio rose 3 basis points to 14.27%. The first quarter was revised up from 14.22% to 14.24%. The debt service ratio rose 6 basis points to 9.58% from its prior level, which was unrevised. The consumer debt service ratio led the gain with the mortgage ratio rising only slightly.
|
|
Sep 23, 2022
The Moody's Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate dropped 19 basis points to 4.19% in August. The hotel and retail sectors contributed the most to the decrease. All property-type delinquency rates held steady or declined, except for multifamily. Meanwhile, all regional delinquency rates fell, except in the South.
|
|
Sep 21, 2022
Inflation expectations in the U.S. have stabilized of late. In the week ended September 18, the benchmark 10-year Inflation Expectations Pulse was 2.68%. The latest reading is slightly below the previous week's reading of 2.69%. At 2.68%, the four-week moving average has held unchanged for several weeks. August consumer price index data showed a broadening of price pressures, all but ensuring a 75-basis point increase to the federal funds rate is announced later Wednesday at the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
|
|
Sep 21, 2022
After six consecutive weekly declines, mortgage application volume rose 3.8% in the week ended September 16. With the Federal Reserve set to raise the fed funds rate by 75 basis points this week, on-the-fence homeowners may be rushing into borrowing terms that are set to rise even higher. The purchase index grew 1% this week while the refinance index jumped 10%. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate rose a further 24 basis points this week from 6.01% to 6.25%.
|
|
Sep 19, 2022
Global businesses remain nervous, as they have all year, but have become somewhat less so in recent weeks. The most encouraging responses to the business survey remain over hiring, as few firms are laying off workers, and investment in equipment and software. Office-space demand has stopped declining for the first time since the pandemic struck. However, sales are soft. Businesses remain on edge due to central bank tightening and higher interest rates, the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and disruptions to supply chains and labor markets due to the pandemic. Business sentiment is consistent with a global economy that continues to just avoid a downturn.
|
|
Aug 17, 2022
The minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee continued to show that the central bank isn't happy with the current rate of inflation, but some caution is creeping into mindsets about the current tightening cycle. Inflation was described as "unacceptably high," but there were concerns about overtightening. These concerns are rooted in the lag effect between changes in monetary policy and the impact on the economy. The Fed has been raising interest rates aggressively, and the view among policymakers is that the economy hasn't felt the full effect of it yet. They believe the pace of tightening could be reduced soon, but that will likely be dependent on the incoming data. The minutes downplay the weakness in GDP. Financial markets are shrugging off the minutes.
|
|
Aug 01, 2022
Changes to lending standards and demand were mixed across loan categories in the second quarter. Consumer lending, which includes credit card, auto and other consumer loans, was mostly unchanged in the period as demand weakened across most product categories. Banks reported tighter standards and stronger demand for commercial and industrial loans. Lenders reported significant tightening for all CRE loan categories while standards were largely unchanged for residential mortgages. Survey respondents anticipate further tightening in lending standards across all loan categories.
|
|
