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Nov 29, 2023
Oil prices could see some downward pressure, as crude oil inventories expanded by 1.6 million barrels in the week ended November 24, besting consensus predictions of a 900,000-barrel build. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels, well above analyst expectations of a 100,000-barrel build. Distillate fuel inventories increased by an impressive 5.2 million barrels after the consensus expected an 800,000-barrel draw. Over the last four weeks, total U.S demand was 1.5% lower than a year earlier.
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Nov 21, 2023
Minutes from the October-November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee reaffirm the stance among the majority of policymakers that interest rates should be held higher for longer. Tighter financial and credit conditions will continue to weigh on the labor market, economic growth and inflation, setting the committee up for another pause at its December meeting, if everything sticks to script. Participants noted that third-quarter GDP exceeded expectations but reiterated their belief that monetary policy should be kept sufficiently restrictive to bring economic growth to below potential to drive inflation down to target. The FOMC continues to view risks to inflation as skewed to the upside. Therefore, the possibility of additional rate hikes was not taken off the table.
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Nov 15, 2023
Mortgage activity rose in the week ended November 10, with new issuance up 2.8%. This was the second straight week of increases in applications. On a yearly basis, the composite index was down 16.9%, nearly equal to the 17% registered the prior week. Some mortgage rates were up while others were down, and still others held pat. The important 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stayed the same at 7.61%, a level that is still very challenging for markets.
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Nov 06, 2023
The collective psyche of global businesses remains fragile. Approximately one-fourth of responses to the nine questions posed in the global business survey are positive, one-half are neutral, and the remaining one-fourth are negative. The most encouraging responses to the business survey are with regard to payrolls, as few respondents are laying off workers, and to a lesser degree investment in equipment and software. The weakest responses remain to the survey's broad-based questions regarding present business conditions and prospects into next year. Sentiment is consistent with a slowly growing global economy.
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Oct 26, 2023
Consumer finances remain strong but are being undermined by high inflation, increased interest rates and borrowing, and exhausted excess savings for some. Hence, bankruptcy filings are showing a deterioration in household finances. A third-quarter decline in filings had been seasonally normal, but filings rose for the second straight year. U.S. courts reported that non-business filings came in 13.9% above their year-ago level after rising 14.9% the prior quarter. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, filings rose 2.2%. Business filings also rose in the quarter, up 6.6% from the second quarter. They were up 37.7% from a year earlier. This compares with a 37% increase on a year-ago basis in the prior quarter.
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Sep 28, 2023
According to the Kansas City Fed's Manufacturing Survey, activity declined in September. At -8, the latest reading of the survey's headline index was down from August's headline value of 0. Current business conditions weakened meaningfully. The production index fell from 12 in August to -13 in September. The volume of shipments index worsened as well, dropping from 1 to -15. Employment indexes are faring better. The primary employment index rose from 1 to 2 while the average employee workweek index ticked up from -6 to 0.
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Sep 28, 2023
With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate pushing 7% in August, many potential buyers pulled back on their search for a home. The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales declined in August, falling 7%. The decline reversed two consecutive months of gains in pending sales, as buyers reel under the crushing weight of the lowest housing affordability in four decades. All regions registered declines, but pending sales contracted the most in the South, falling more than 9%.
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Sep 28, 2023
U.S. GDP rose a healthy 2.1% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' third estimate, the fourth consecutive quarter of growth near or above the economy's potential. Inventories switched from a major drag to neutral as many components, including consumer spending, imports, government spending, and nonresidential business investment, contributed to growth with none dominating. Exports and residential investment weighed on growth. Real disposable income also posted its fourth quarterly gain, up 3.5%. The saving rate rose to 5.2%, up from a revised 4.8% in the first quarter. Profits increased 0.2% (not annualized) after decreasing 2.6% in the first quarter. Gross domestic income rose 0.7% after rising 0.5%. Comprehensive revisions impacted data back decades.
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