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Mar 24, 2020
The latest new-home sales report shows the housing market's strength before COVID-19 hit. New-home sales fell 4.4% in February to 765,000, but this was above the Moody's Analytics and consensus expectations. What is more, January's figure was revised higher to 800,000 (previously 764,000). Among the regional markets, the West recorded the steepest decline in February in percentage points. Sales in the Midwest also fell over the month, while sales rose in the Northeast and the South. The number of new homes listed for sale slipped between January and February, but the inventory-to-sales ratio increased from 4.8 to 5. The median price of a new home increased from $325,300 to $345,900.
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Mar 24, 2020
Manufacturing activity in the Richmond Federal Reserve District increased slightly this month. The Fifth District Manufacturing Index climbed 4 points, to 2. Shipments led the increase, while the volume of new orders was unchanged from February. Factories are beginning to lay off workers, and the number of new employees index fell by nearly 10 points. Six-month expectations have turned negative amid the COVID-19 pandemic, which has shuttered businesses across the nation and disrupted global supply chains.
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Mar 24, 2020
The Philadelphia Fed's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicates that business activity plummeted in March 2020. The diffusion index for general activity sank to -12.8 from 36.1 a month ago, reflecting COVID-19's heavy toll on the Third District's economy. Sales, new orders, and employment pull backed. More businesses are increasing investment spending than are not, but a plurality of firms reported no change in capital expenditures.
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Mar 20, 2020
Existing-home sales surged 6.5% in February, reversing the slight decline registered in January. Overall, year-over-year sales increased by 7.2%; single-family and condo/co-op sales both increased by 7.3% and 7.1%, respectively. Regionally, sales increased in the Midwest, South and West over the previous month, and increased in all four regions over the previous year. The findings, which are through February, reflect the state of the U.S. housing market prior to the extraordinary disruptions and shutdowns that U.S. officials have ordered in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.
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Mar 20, 2020
Canadian retail trade notched a modest gain in January, as the effects of COVID-19 have yet to surface. Sales were up 0.4% to C$52 billion. Higher sales in motor vehicles and parts dealers drove the headline numbers with a 1.8% gain. Gasoline station sales rose 1.5%. Sales increased in only four of the 11 subsectors, representing 48% of trade.
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Mar 20, 2020
The Moody's Delinquency Tacker total delinquency rate edged down 4 basis points to 2.56% in February. Retail contributed the most to this month's decline. Out of the six property types, three declined, two increased, and one remained the same. All regional delinquency rates fell in February except for the West. The total balance of CMBS conduit loans outstanding decreased thanks to payoffs and dispositions outweighing new issuance.
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Mar 19, 2020
Leading economic indicators, yet to capture current COVID-19-induced conditions, point to a fading U.S. expansion. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.1% in February to 112.1. This follows a 0.7% increase (revised from 0.8%) in January and a 0.3% dip in December. The slight gain in February was driven by the manufacturing optimism preceding the larger virus outbreak.
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Mar 19, 2020
The last employment report prior to the COVID-19 outbreak was weak but still positive. The ADP Canada National Employment Report estimates about 7,200 jobs were added in February.
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Mar 19, 2020
The Philadelphia Fed survey showed a pronounced pullback in manufacturing for March. The general activity diffusion index dropped to -12.7 from 36.7 a month ago and 14.9 a year ago. This month-to-month decline marks one of the sharpest decreases in the series' history. While the COVID-19 outbreak is taking a toll on business activity, so far, employment and workweek length have remained in decent shape.
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Mar 16, 2020
The employment figures for state and regional economies for January confirm what is already known, namely that the country's labor market was solid heading into the current period of stress. In January, nonfarm employment rose in 12 states, up from three in December, though fewer states reported lower unemployment rates. In January, Florida, New York and Illinois reported the largest absolute job gains, while the fastest over-the-month job growth occurred in New Hampshire and Kentucky. Utah, Arizona and Idaho were the top three in year-ago percentage gains. North Dakota had the lowest jobless rate, at 2.3%, while Alaska had the highest, at 6%. Six states—Alaska, Illinois, Nevada, New York, Oregon and Washington—set series lows for unemployment dating back to 1976.
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Mar 12, 2020
Nonfinancial corporate business wealth increased by $43 billion to $16.9 trillion during the fourth quarter behind an increase in the value of financial assets. The value of real estate assets, which had contributed solidly to a rise in net worth in the first three quarters of the year, fell by $243 billion in the fourth quarter. Year-over-year growth slowed to 2.5% from 9.4% in the third quarter.
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Mar 12, 2020
Household wealth rose strongly in the fourth quarter as the stock market continued to rise, before the spread of the coronavirus caused markets to plunge this year. Wealth increased by $3.1 trillion to $118.4 trillion, following a revised $800 billion increase in the third quarter. Year-over-year growth surged to 10.4%, as wealth fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018. Housing wealth shrank slightly as growth in debt outpaced growth in housing assets while components of wealth tied to the stock market rose strongly. Household liability growth was the largest in a little over a year. Wealth has since dropped sharply, as the stock market has fallen, so this release is out of date.
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Mar 03, 2020
The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the target fed funds rate by 50 basis points to 1% to 1.25% because of the heighten downside risks COVID-19 poses to the U.S. economy. But there is only so much monetary policy can do; the central bank will need help from fiscal policy. The intra-meeting decision is rare and risky, since it could be viewed as the central bank panicking, and financial market conditions may not respond as well as the central bank anticipates. In other words, some could see this as the Fed knowing something we don't, since policymakers have suggested recently that they wanted to see hard evidence that COVID-19 was impacting the U.S. economy before deciding if policy needed to be re-calibrated. Odds are the Fed isn't done.
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Feb 14, 2020
Boeing's decision to halt production of the 737 MAX contributed to the 0.3% drop in industrial production in January, near our and consensus expectations. Manufacturing output slipped 0.1%, but excluding production of civilian aircraft it was up 0.3%. Utilities output dropped 4%; coupled with the month's control retail sales, real consumer spending appears to have struggled. Mining output rose 1.2%, but given the recent slide in global oil prices this increase is unlikely to stick. Capacity utilization fell 0.3 percentage point to 76.8%. Manufacturing capacity utilization slipped from 75.2% to 75.1%. All told, Boeing is distorting the message from industrial production.
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Feb 13, 2020
U.S. household borrowing increased in January, up $34 billion from December. The total outstanding balance of retail credit topped $13.6 trillion last month, which stands 4.1% above its level in January 2019. There was growth in balances across all asset classes, with the most growth in terms of volume coming from the residential segment. In terms of percentage increase, consumer finance was by far the fastest-growing segment of retail credit, expanding at about a 9% annualized rate while the rest of the asset classes grew at an approximately 4% annualized rate.
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Feb 10, 2020
The coronavirus appears to be yet another geopolitical concern added to the long list of issues bothering global businesses. Although sentiment has improved since the truce in the trade war between the U.S. and China last fall, it dipped last week and remains highly tentative. Other worries include the fast-approaching U.S. presidential election, the Brexit transition, and tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Global business sentiment is consistent with a global economy that is barely expanding at its potential.
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Feb 07, 2020
Wholesale inventories fell 0.2% in December, below the consensus expectation of 0.1% growth. This comes after a 0.1% increase in November (revised from a 0.1% decline). Among the categories, durable goods inventories fell 0.3% while nondurable goods inventories stayed put. Wholesale sales dropped 0.7% after a revised 0.9% increase (from 1.5%) in November. The decreases kept the inventory-to-sales ratio at 1.36.
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Feb 05, 2020
Mortgage applications rose 5% over the week of January 31. The refinance index increased by 15.3% as the purchasing index fell by 9.5%. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined from the previous week to 3.71% from 3.81%. We expect that lower mortgage rates, a tightening labor market, and an acceleration in wage growth will boost home sales during the first quarter of 2020. But the shortage of housing in the low- and mid-price range is creating affordability issues for homebuyers, which could weigh on the market.
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Jan 27, 2020
U.S. used-vehicle prices notched up 1% on a year-over-year basis in December. December's uptick was the first after two consecutive months of decline, an indication of stagnating consumer demand. Light truck and SUV prices fell 0.6%, whereas car prices moved up 2.3%. Vehicle retention value, measured as price/MSRP, declined 1.2%, with the truck and SUV component declining 2.8% and car retention values ticking up 0.2%.
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Jan 03, 2020
New York City closed 2019 on a less-than-stellar note, according to the December ISM-New York Report on Business. The top-line current business conditions index dropped more than 10 points to 39.1, its worst result in more than 3½ years. This means that the index has now spent six of the past eight months at or below its neutral threshold of 50. Other indicators were more promising, with the six-month outlook index nudging slightly higher to 64.2, marking its third straight monthly increase, and the employment index increasing by double digits. The prices paid index continues to creep lower, while current and expected revenues both sit at or near their neutral thresholds.
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Dec 27, 2019
Agricultural prices increased 4.6% from October to November thanks to a rise in livestock prices, especially poultry and eggs. Prices for crops also increased. At 88.6, the Agricultural Prices Received Index was 0.2% higher than in November 2018. The crop production index rose 1.7% in November but was down 1.8% from a year earlier. The livestock production index increased 7%, putting it 4.2% higher than in November 2018.
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Dec 20, 2019
Real consumer spending growth continued near its recent trend in November. Real spending grew 0.3% following growth of 0.1% in October and 0.2% in September and August. Durable goods spending was strongest, rising 1.2%, while nondurable goods spending lagged, growing 0.1%. Prices rose 0.2%, the same as in October, but nominal spending rose 0.4% after rounding. The saving rate inched up to 7.9% from 7.8% in October as income growth also gained ground.
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Dec 20, 2019
The headline PCE deflator rose 0.2% in November, in line with our forecast. Food prices were flat after rising 0.2% in October and remaining flat in September. Energy goods and services prices rose for the second consecutive month, increasing 0.8% and offsetting previous declines. The core PCE deflator, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% for the fourth consecutive month. On a year-ago basis, the core PCE deflator ticked down a notch to 1.6%, compared with 1.7% in October. All told, inflation pressures remain muted, keeping the possibility of another rate cut alive. We expect the next rate cut to occur in June.
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Dec 20, 2019
Growth in nominal personal income accelerated to 0.5% in November after rising by a revised 0.1% in October. This figure outstripped both the consensus and Moody's Analytics forecasts for a 0.3% increase. Disposable income growth jumped to 0.5% on a nominal basis but fell to 0.4% when adjusted for inflation. Wage and salary growth fell to 0.4% in November, a hair below the 0.5% increase achieved in October. Proprietors' income rose 1.9% following a -1.1% decrease the prior month. Rental income rose 0.5%, and receipts on assets increased 0.8%. The personal saving rate rose to 7.9% from 7.8%.
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Dec 19, 2019
Household financial burdens are low and very modestly declining. The financial obligations ratio fell 4 basis points to 15.03% in the third quarter and was down 6 basis points over the preceding year. The second-quarter reading was revised up from 15.03% to 15.07%. The debt service ratio fell 2 basis points to 9.69% from its prior level and was down 1 basis point over the last year. The prior level was revised up 2 basis points. Debt service hit a record low, with the decline coming from the mortgage debt service ratio. The mortgage ratio dipped 2 basis points in the quarter while the consumer ratio was unchanged. Growth in debt payments and obligations slowed marginally in the quarter while income growth improved.
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Nov 29, 2019
The pace of GDP growth slowed markedly in the third quarter as exports fell. Canada's GDP advanced 1.3% at an annualized rate, only slightly exceeding our November baseline forecast. Consumer spending made a modest contribution, while fixed investment lent surprising strength to the headline on a pickup in residential construction. However, a sharp decline in inventories thwarted a more significant increase in total investment.
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