|
Jul 15, 2021
The Moody's Analytics Beige Book Index rose to 198.6 in July from 156.9 in June. A top-line score around 100 indicates that U.S. economic activity expanded at a moderate tempo. July's score marks the third consecutive release where the Beige Book Index has registered north of 100. By Federal Reserve District, New York notched the largest increase from March to April while Boston recorded the only month-to-month decline.
|
|
Jul 08, 2021
The consumer credit market witnessed explosive growth in June, increasing $145 billion to $14.5 trillion outstanding. This was a 0.99% monthly increase, bringing the year-over-year growth rate to 5.52%. The increase was powered by continued strong growth in mortgages and auto loans but also by strong growth in unsecured lending as the recovery from the pandemic hits its stride and consumers begin spending in earnest. Delinquency rates inched upward while closed negative rates remained relatively unchanged. We continue to see rock-solid performance out of existing loans.
|
|
Jul 07, 2021
Household financial burdens plunged to new record lows in the first quarter as incomes surged on the back of two rounds of stimulus checks. Disposable income surged 68% at an annual rate in the quarter while growth in debt payments and obligations slowed. The financial obligations ratio tumbled 175 basis points to 12.88%. The fourth quarter was revised down from 14.71% to 14.63%. The debt service ratio dropped 113 basis points to 8.23% from its prior level, which was revised down 5 basis points from 9.41% to 9.36%. The mortgage debt service ratio fell somewhat less than the consumer ratio.
|
|
Jul 06, 2021
The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index fell from 331 to 326.3 in the week ended July 2. Fiscal policy uncertainty remains elevated. The Fed's new forward guidance hasn't impacted uncertainty about monetary policy, which remains fairly low even as policymakers debate when and how to taper monthly asset purchases.
|
|
Jun 25, 2021
U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded in June, reversing nearly half of May's large drop, according to the University of Michigan's final report. Its consumer sentiment index came in at 85.5, up from 82.9 in May but still below April's 88.3. It was also below the preliminary report's value of 86.4. Confidence remains down 15.5 points from February of last year, before the pandemic. The gain in June was led by the expectations component, which rose 5 points. The present conditions index fell 0.8 point after revision. Inflation expectations reversed a portion of their May gain. Median 12-month inflation expectations fell to 4.2% from May's 4.6%. Five-year expectations fell to 2.8% from 3%.
|
|
Jun 16, 2021
Mortgage applications grew 4.2% in the week of June 11 following three weeks of consecutive declines. The purchase index increased 1.6% and the refinance index bounced back, growing 5.5%. Contract rates inched down by 4 basis points this week to 3.11%. Home sales data have softened recently, a function of rising construction costs, labor-supply shortages, and a backlog of homes under construction. Looking through the housing market's current moderation, we see demand for new housing at elevated levels in 2021 before supply catches up later in the decade.
|
|
Jun 14, 2021
Global business sentiment is steadily improving as the pandemic winds down in the developed world. Assessment of present business conditions turned positive last week on a four-week moving average basis for the first time since the pandemic hit in early 2020. Businesses are also much more confident about the economy's prospects through the remainder of this year, and hiring and investment intentions remain firmly positive. Only office space demand remains weak. Global business sentiment is consistent with an expanding global economy.
|
|
May 18, 2021
The Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate edged up 3 basis points to 7.01% in April. Subcomponents were mixed this month. Retail's delinquency rate had the largest increase, and hotel's delinquency rate had the largest decrease. Even so, the execution of forbearance agreements and other temporary loan payment relief continued throughout April, keeping delinquencies in check. Regional delinquencies increased this month, except for the East.
|
|
May 17, 2021
Net long-term capital flows were positive for the 11th straight month in March. Net inflows totaled $262.2 billion, an increase from February's inflows of $4.3 billion. March's inflows were the largest monthly inflow on record. Foreign residents were net buyers of $208.1 billion worth of long-term U.S. securities in March, following net sales $7.3 billion in February. Private foreign investors were net buyers of $142.1 billion while official foreign investors increased their holdings by $65.9 billion. U.S. residents contributed to capital inflows, decreasing their holdings of long-term foreign securities by $54.1 billion.
|
|
May 17, 2021
Canadians poured into U.S. equities this month. Domestic investors added C$21.2 billion in foreign securities in March. The majority of those purchases were U.S. equities, with technology stocks being especially popular. Meanwhile, overseas investors added $3.2 billion of Canadian securities to their portfolios. The end result was an C$18 billion net outflow, continuing a recent trend. Combined with January and February, the first quarter's C$24.7 billion outflow was the largest since 2007.
|
|
May 07, 2021
Global semiconductor sales returned to form in March. After sales declined in two of the past three months, global semiconductor sales surged 3.6% in March to $41.1 billion. All four sales regions registered an increase on the month with Europe recording the largest monthly increase at 5.7%. The industry is performing well on a year-ago basis as sales expanded an impressive 9.2% from March 2020.
|
|
May 07, 2021
The seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index fell in April to 60.6 from 72.9 in March. The reading is still signaling expansion, though at a slower pace than last month. The index came in at 22.8 in April 2020, right in the midst of major pandemic stress. Of the four detailed measures, only the Ivey suppliers index was below 50 in March.
|
|
May 07, 2021
Mortgage delinquency rates dropped 35 basis points to 6.38% in the first quarter of 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's survey. Although this marks three straight quarters of decreases, the total delinquency rate is still 202 basis points above where it was at this point last year. Conventional loans saw a decrease in their delinquency rate while Veterans Affairs and Federal Housing Administration loans both saw increases.
|
|
May 07, 2021
Wholesale inventories expanded 1.3% in March, following an upwardly revised 1% increase in February. Durable goods stockpiles grew 1.2% while nondurable goods inventories increased 1.4%. Wholesale sales jumped 4.6% in March, and February data were revised up to show no change from January (previously -0.8%). The strong bounce in wholesale sales offset the inventory build, pulling the inventory-to-sales ratio down to 1.22 from 1.26.
|
|
May 07, 2021
Payroll employment was far weaker in April than expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that 266,000 net new jobs were added—one-third of our expectation—while the unemployment rate edged up to 6.1%. Moreover, March's figure was revised down to 770,000 from the 916,000 reported last month. Goods producers, retailers, transportation/warehousing and temp help all shed jobs. Chip shortages have resulted in declines in auto manufacturing, especially.
|
|
May 07, 2021
The U.S. economy has a lot of momentum heading into this quarter because of the fiscal stimulus and weather-related bounce in March. Our estimate of real monthly GDP increased 2.4% in March after falling a revised 2.1% in February (previously 0.9%). Monthly GDP in February was hurt more than previously thought by winter storms that swept across a good portion of the country. The gain in mark, leaves monthly GDP up 5.5% on a year-ago basis in March. This is misleading because of easy base effects. Last March was when the pandemic was intensifying. Our estimate of monthly GDP is consistent with the government's advance estimate of first quarter GDP, which showed a 6.4% annualized increase.
|
|
May 06, 2021
U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance are signaling optimism for the labor market. New filings fell from an upwardly revised 590,000 to 498,000 in the week ended May 1, posting the lowest total since the pandemic began and besting consensus expectations for a more modest decline. Continuing claims barely budged, rising from 3.653 million to 3.69 million in the week ended April 24. The number of those filing for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance dropped by about 20,000 in the week ended May 1 to 101,214, the lowest total since these benefits were first introduced in April 2020. Total initial claims are now around 600,000, by far the lowest level since the pandemic began, providing additional evidence that the labor market is gaining momentum.
|
|
May 06, 2021
Job cut announcements fell to 22,913 in April, marking the third decline in a row and falling to their lowest level since 2000. Entertainment/leisure, insurance and telecommunications accounted for the majority of the decline in job cuts. The decrease in layoff announcements was fairly concentrated for being so strong; only 14 of the 30 industries tracked by Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. saw job cut announcements decrease from March to April.
|
|
May 05, 2021
A much larger than expected decline in oil inventories will support oil prices. Commercial crude oil inventories fell by 8 million barrels in the week ended April 30, handily beating consensus expectations of a 2.6 million-barrel decline. Gasoline inventories rose by 737,000 barrels, contrary to analyst expectations that stocks would fall by 451,000 barrels. Distillate inventories fell by 2.9 million barrels, much more than analyst predictions of a 168,000-barrel draw. Refinery capacity utilization rose to 86.5% from the prior week's 85.4%. Over the last four weeks, total U.S. oil demand was 34.2% higher than in the same period last year.
|
|
May 05, 2021
The U.S. services activity expanded in April, albeit at a less frenetic pace than in March. The ISM nonmanufacturing survey's composite index slipped from an all-time high of 63.7 in March to 62.7, a touch lower than forecast. The details to the report highlight ongoing supply chain disruptions. Supplier deliveries were meaningfully slower, while inventories entered into contractionary territory. Business activity and new orders were a drag on the top-line index because of production-capacity constraints. On the bright side, employment was supportive of the overall index. All told, the nonmanufacturing segment of the economy is expanding into the spring and will benefit once U.S. consumers reach near-normalcy this summer.
|
|
May 05, 2021
The labor market is off and running. In April, private sector payrolls grew by 742,000 on net—a continued acceleration of growth and the strongest reading since September. Private sector payrolls are still more than 8 million jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels, but job gains have totaled 1.3 million over the last two months after adding only about 1 million jobs in the five months prior. Goods producers posted another solid gain in April, adding 106,000 jobs to go with the 98,000 added in March. Service providers continue to do most of the heavy lifting, adding 636,000 positions in April.
|
|
May 04, 2021
The nominal trade deficit widened to $74.4 billion in March, fueled by rising goods imports. The U.S. trade deficit did not yawn as much as we projected but came in on par with the consensus expectation. February's trade deficit was revised narrower by about $600 million. The trade deficit in services remained stable around $17.1 billion.
|
|
May 04, 2021
In March, Canada's merchandise exports increased slightly by 0.3%. Meanwhile, imports pushed higher by 5.5%. Canada's trade balance subsequently moved from a surplus of C$1.4 billion in February to a deficit of C$1.1 billion in March.
|
|
May 04, 2021
The booming pace of new residential construction shows no signs of abating, yet the nonresidential sector's struggles continue. Total building permits rose 5.7% in March from the prior month, reflecting a 15.9% increase on the residential side and a 15.6% decline in intentions for new nonresidential structures. Year-over-year comparisons have become skewed as the base period now marks the start of the pandemic. Still, residential permits have increased 69.8% from the prior year while nonresidential permits have mounted little to no recovery, up 2.2%. The pandemic-induced shifts in the housing market and construction industry will begin to reverse until interest rates start rising and vaccines allow social activities to return to normal.
|
|
May 04, 2021
U.S. new-vehicle sales put the pedal to the metal for the second month in a row. With 18.5 million annualized units sold, April 2021 is the strongest April sales in the history of the U.S auto market and the highest of any month since July 2005. Total light vehicles sold represent a monthly increase of 3.1% and were 112.2% above the pandemic-ravaged totals of April 2020. Sales of both passenger cars and light trucks remained strong. Seasonally adjusted annualized unit sales of light trucks and SUVs increased by 2.4% from March and were 21.9% above April 2019. Passenger car sales rose month over month, increasing 5.3% from March. Car sales beat last April's numbers by 109.4% but were 14% below April 2019 as consumers continue to shift towards larger vehicles.
|
|
May 04, 2021
The CoreLogic Home Price Index rose 2% in March from the previous month and 11.3% year over year. Year-ago house price appreciation has accelerated to the fastest pace since 2006 because housing supply is limited and demand is being boosted by historically low mortgage rates.
|
|
May 03, 2021
U.S. construction spending increased just 0.2% in March, well below the consensus expectation of a 2% increase. While residential outlays increased 1.7%, the top-line figure was weighed down by a 1.1% decrease in nonresidential spending. Public construction also declined, by 1.5%, and sits 4.6% below its March 2020 level. U.S. construction spending is up 5.3% over the past year thanks to the red-hot housing sector masking weakness elsewhere.
|
|
May 03, 2021
The ISM manufacturing survey unexpectedly fell in April, but it remains elevated and the outlook is favorable for factory conditions this quarter. The ISM manufacturing index fell from 64.7 in March to 60.7 in April. Across the board, the details were less impressive than in March. New orders fell from 68 to 64.3 while production dropped from 68.1 to 62.5. The employment index also fell. Supplier deliveries slipped but are still high and will likely remain this way for the next several months. The prices-paid index rose from 85.6 to 89.6 as the number of commodities noted as up in price and/or in short supply continues to grow.
|
|
