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Oct 19, 2021
Household financial burdens reversed some of their first quarter plunge in the second quarter as incomes reversed some of their stimulus-supported surge and payment rose. Growth in debt payments and obligations accelerated while disposable income dropped 25.7% after surging 60.6% at an annual rate in the prior quarter. The financial obligations rose 118 basis points to 13.81%. The first quarter was revised down from 12.88% to 12.65%. The debt service ratio rose 80 basis points to 9.18% from its prior level, which was revised up 15 basis points from 8.23% to 8.38%. The mortgage debt service ratio rose somewhat less than the consumer ratio.
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Oct 06, 2021
A larger-than-expected rise in crude oil inventories will put downward pressure on oil prices. Commercial crude oil inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended October 1, handily beating consensus predictions of a 796,000-barrel increase. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels, going well against analyst expectations that stocks would dip by 69,000 barrels. Distillate inventories declined by 396,000 barrels, under analyst predictions of an 844,000-barrel decline. Refinery capacity utilization rose to 89.6% from last week's 88.1%. During the last four weeks, total U.S. oil demand was 16.4% higher than the same period last year.
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Oct 06, 2021
The consumer market continued its strong growth trajectory in September. The total consumer credit market now stands at $14.8 trillion, up $113 billion from the previous month, a 0.9% increase that puts the year-over-year gain at 6.87%. Strong balance growth continued across most products. We witnessed another slight rise in delinquency rates but a decrease in loss rates across all products.
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Sep 27, 2021
Texas' factory sector expanded in September, with survey details broadly pointing to a stronger growth rate than a month ago. The general business activity diffusion index slipped from 9 to 4.6, but indicators for employment, production, capacity utilization and shipments all perked up from August to September. Supply-chain disruptions remain potent, and the prices received diffusion index reached an all-time high of 44.
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Aug 27, 2021
The Moody's Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate inched down 1 basis point to 6.67% in August. The slight improvement this month stems from a decline in the hotel delinquency rate. However, forbearance and loan modifications continue to keep delinquencies lower than they otherwise would be. The subcomponents and regional scores were mixed this month.
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Aug 24, 2021
Manufacturing in the Richmond Federal Reserve District is increasing at a slower pace. The composite index fell from 27 to 9 in August. Volume of new orders and shipments, the two largest components of the index, increased this month, but the pace of recovery fell to its lowest point since the pandemic began. Hiring slowed in August following July's record increase in payrolls. Further, prices paid by producers rose near their record fast pace, but the gap between prices paid and prices received narrowed.
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Aug 23, 2021
Existing-home sales increased 2% in July to 5.99 million units annualized, adding to June's gain, and are now positive on year-over-year basis. A sub-3% 30-year fixed mortgage rate along with a steadily improving labor market helped support the boost in existing-home sales. Single-family sales increased 2.7% and condo/co-op sales fell 2.7% in July. Overall, existing-home sales were higher in all census regions except the Northeast, where sales were flat from the previous month.
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Aug 19, 2021
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose 0.9% in July, slightly stronger than the consensus expectation of a 0.8% increase. July's growth follows a 0.5% increase in June and a 1.2% gain in May. The coincident index also increased in July, up 0.6% to 105.6.
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Aug 19, 2021
Manufacturing activity continues to expand, though it is decelerating. The headline number for the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing outlook survey dipped 2.5 points this week from 21.9 to 19.4. August's reading is below consensus expectations of a decline to 23, though it comes in higher than the Moody's Analytics forecast of a steeper decline to 17. Current conditions remain strong. The share of respondents reporting increases in new orders and employees grew in August. Though still elevated, the survey has steadily climbed down from April's peak reading.
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Aug 19, 2021
Employment growth in July more than made up for the decline in June. ADP Canada reports that employers added 221,300 jobs in July, and June's loss was revised down from 294,200 workers to only 106,000. Of the 10 reported sectors, all recorded an increase in July. Leisure and hospitality notched the largest gain with 64,300, more than a quarter of all jobs added.
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Aug 18, 2021
U.S. housing starts fell more than either we or the consensus expected in July, but the forward-looking permits improved. Housing starts fell 7% in July to 1.534 million annualized units. There was a small upward revision to housing starts in June, as they are now shown to be 1.65 million annualized units. The bulk of the weakness was in the volatile multifamily segment, with starts falling 13.1%, the third decline in the past four months. Single-family starts were down 4.5% after rising in each of the prior two months. Housing permits, a leading indicator for starts, were up 2.6% in July, snapping a streak of three consecutive monthly declines. Single-family permits fell but multifamily jumped.
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Aug 18, 2021
Mortgage applications declined 3.9% in the week of August 13 following the previous week's 2.8% increase. The purchase index also declined, by 0.8%. The refinance index contracted 5.3%. During the week, contract rates climbed 7 basis points to 3.06%. Mortgage application volume has softened toward normal levels after an extended period at elevated rates. Increased material costs and supply shortages continue to weigh on builder confidence.
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Aug 17, 2021
Homebuilder confidence fell 5 points to 75 in August. Increased material costs and supply shortages continue to weigh on builder confidence. Even so, the index remains well above the 50-point threshold indicating positive building conditions. The three subcomponents declined or held steady this month. Meanwhile, all regional scores on a three-month moving-average basis decreased in August.
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Aug 17, 2021
Business inventories increased in June. The inventory build increased by 0.8% from May, on par with consensus. Among the categories, manufacturing inventories grew 1% and retail grew 0.3%. The total business inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.25, down from 1.41 a year earlier.
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Aug 17, 2021
U.S. industrial production increased more than expected in July thanks to a rebound in motor vehicle and parts production. Industrial production was up 0.9% in July, stronger than both our and consensus expectations. Manufacturing production increased 1.4% in July after falling 0.3% in June. Manufacturing output has been seesawing during the past several months because of fluctuations in motor vehicle and parts production. The semiconductor shortage and other supply-chain issues have been problematic for manufacturers. Outside of manufacturing, weather weighed on utilities output, as it fell 2.1% in July, reversing some of the 3.1% gain in June. Mining output was up 1.2% in July, the third consecutive monthly gain.
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Aug 17, 2021
The shift of U.S. consumer spending from goods to services along with the timing of Amazon's Prime Day weighed on retail sales in July, as they dropped 1.1%. The decline was a little less than our forecast for -1.5% but larger than the consensus for a 0.2% decline. Autos were also a significant drag, falling 3.9% in July, their third consecutive monthly decline. Excluding autos, retail sales were down 0.4% after rising 1.6% in June. Nonauto retail sales have dropped in three of the past four months. Nonstore retail sales were down 3.1% in July but this is likely attributed to a shift in Prime Day, which normally occurs in July but occurred in June this year. Sales fell at building material, sporting goods, grocery and furniture stores.
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Aug 16, 2021
Global business sentiment weakened last week, with assessments of current business conditions turning notably softer. The percentage of respondents saying present conditions improved, less those that said they weakened, turned negative for the first time since this spring. Expectations regarding the economy's prospects into early next year also turned weaker, though responses remained positive on net. The mounting threat posed by the fast-spreading Delta variant of COVID-19 is likely the key factor in pushing sentiment lower.
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Aug 06, 2021
Another solid month of job growth has put total employment within striking distance of its pre-pandemic high. Employment increased by 94,000 in July, a slight disappointment relative to June's gain of 231,000 but still enough to bring the total number of workers within 246,000 of February 2020's pre-pandemic peak and push the unemployment rate down 0.3 percentage point to 7.5%. Stellar vaccination rates have allowed for the easing of public health restrictions and the reopening of hard-hit businesses. Strong hiring in accommodation, food service, trade, logistics and healthcare drove the headline gain.
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Aug 05, 2021
Worldwide sales of semiconductors continue to reach new heights. Global sales totaled a record-setting $44.5 billion in June. Using a three-month moving average to smooth the month-to-month volatility, global sales rose 2.1% from their revised May figure and were 29.2% higher year over year. Sales in all four regional markets increased in the month, with the Americas registering the strongest increase at 5.4%. Global sales have now increased a whopping 29.2% since June 2020.
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Aug 05, 2021
The increase in gas stocks last week was slightly under analyst predictions, suggesting that this report should provide a small amount of support to gas prices. Working gas in underground storage rose by 13 billion cubic feet during the week ended July 30, just below consensus predictions of an 18-bcf build.
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Aug 05, 2021
Financial stress rebounded last week, with the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index falling 22 basis points to -0.95. The four-week moving average rose 2 basis points to -0.89. The Standard & Poor's 500 finished the week down 0.4% while equity market volatility moved higher. Long-term Treasury yields moved lower for the fifth straight week.
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Aug 04, 2021
Our estimate of U.S. real monthly GDP didn't budge in June, suggesting the economy lost momentum heading into this quarter. This isn't surprising, as the boost to growth from the reopening and fiscal stimulus have faded. Monthly GDP is now shown to have declined 0.2% in May (previously -0.1%). GDP was up 6.4% on a year-ago basis in June.
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