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Feb 06, 2023
Though consumer finances remain strong, they are being undermined by high inflation, increased borrowing, and exhausted excess saving for at least some. Hence, bankruptcy filings are showing a deterioration in household finances. A fourth-quarter decline is seasonally normal, and this year's decrease was smaller than last year. U.S. Courts reported that non-business filings were 4% above their year-ago level after rising 2.9% the prior quarter. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, filings fell 6.4%. Business filings dipped in the quarter, falling 0.2% from the third quarter. They were up 11.4% from a year earlier. This compares with a 12.1% increase on a year-ago basis in the prior quarter.
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Dec 22, 2022
Household financial burdens rose for the sixth consecutive time in the third quarter as growth in debt payments and obligations strengthened while accelerating income growth improved but lagged. Despite the gains, burdens remain extremely low by historic standards, though they are approaching levels seen prior to the pandemic. The financial obligations ratio rose 13 basis points to 14.49%. The second quarter was revised up from 14.27% to 14.36%. The debt service ratio rose 12 basis points to 9.75% from its prior level, which was revised up from 9.58% to 9.63%. The mortgage debt service ratio led the gain with the consumer ratio rising nearly as much.
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Dec 21, 2022
The colder months have slowed inflation's deceleration. The consumer price index rose 0.4% in November from the prior month as falling energy prices failed to offset increases in food and shelter costs. The modest monthly increase yielded a 6.8% annual inflation rate, a hair softer than October's 6.9% pace. More troubling, two out of the Bank of Canada's three preferred core inflation measures accelerated. The persistence of elevated inflation complicates the Bank of Canada's hope to pause rate hikes soon and may warrant an upward revision to the rate forecast.
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Dec 12, 2022
After an uptick in the previous month, the Moody's Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate returned to its downward trend, decreasing 11 basis points to 4.14% in November. The hotel and industrial sectors contributed the most to this decline. The property type delinquency rates were mixed. Meanwhile, all four regional scores fell.
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