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 NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Manufacturing Keeps Chugging Along
On an ISM-composite basis, the Empire State survey remained north of 60.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 7—CPI and Census
Do economists have superstitions?

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: The Tea Leaves on Inflation
U.S. consumer prices popped in April, but the pickup looks transitory.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2021

Capital Market View: Surging Construction Costs Not Dampening Builder Confidence
The biggest near-term risk is a jump in mortgage rates, but that's unlikely with peaking GDP growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 17, 2021
We now look for real GDP to rise 6.8% this year, compared with the 6.4% in the April baseline.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 14, 2021

Economic Roundup: As Economy Reopens, U.S. Retail Sales Could Struggle
There will likely be a significant shift away from goods spending in favor of services.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 14, 2021

Capital Market View: See Inflation, Expect Inflation
Rising prices at the pump boost consumers inflation expectations, but it's unlikely to stick.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 14, 2021

Canada Weekly: Labor Supply and Demand
Despite poor performance in April, both supply and demand for labor are on the upswing.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 14, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Labor Worries Should Ease
Malaysia is hit hard by a contagious COVID-19 variant.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 14, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Update to Tracker Publication
The frequency of this post will shift from weekly to monthly.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 14, 2021

The Global Debt Nexus: Surveying the Pandemic Surge in Global Leverage
There are few precedents for the government, corporate, household and financial sector borrowing binge.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 14, 2021

U.S. Job Growth Will Be Strong, Income Growth Will Not
As government's contribution fades, more fundamental sources of income including compensation and investment income will be major supports.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2021

Economic Roundup: With Drop in Claims, States Opting Out of Offering Expanded Benefits
U.S. initial claims drop below 500,000; another day, another hot reading on inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2021

Capital Market View: PPI Packs Less Punch Than CPI
Inflation expectations dip even as the PPI comes in hotter than expected.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2021

City Slackers? Yes and No
Urban areas of the U.S. lost residents in 2020, but this partly reflects a continuation of pre-pandemic patterns.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 12, 2021

Economic Roundup: Are Inflationists Finally Right, or Still Crying Wolf?
Reopening, stimulus and chip shortage boost April U.S. CPI.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 12, 2021

U.S. Inflation Heat Map Update
Leisure, hospitality, travel and autos have pushed inflation higher.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 12, 2021

Capital Market View: Keep Calm
The jump in April's U.S. CPI, which is temporary, was attributed to the reopening of the economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 11, 2021

Economic Roundup: Tweaking the U.S. Baseline Forecast
New fiscal, EPI assumptions and incoming data alter the forecast for the U.S. economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 11, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Cases Fall in U.S. and Europe
Fewer infections and a rising share of the population vaccinated has led states to loosen restrictions.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 11, 2021

Gimme Shelter
Odds are that U.S. shelter CPI will surprise to the upside, but the implications for inflation are minor.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 11, 2021

Capital Market View: Are Investors Heeding Fed's Warning?
The central bank cautions that equity prices could drop if sentiment shifts.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 11, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Speed Bump to Recovery
The job market faces a new challenge, though the economy is still booming.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 11, 2021

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Herd Hesitancy
The expansion of unemployment insurance benefits may be a factor in limiting the supply of labor.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 11, 2021

U.S. Road to Recovery: Facing a New Challenge
The April employment report gave credence to what the Fed has been preaching: patience.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 10, 2021

Economic Roundup: Pipeline Problems
Regional gasoline price jumps have been avoided, for now.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 10, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: April Showers Damp White-Hot Recovery Hopes
Other than the underwhelming jobs number, economic data released last week was broadly positive.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 10, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 10, 2021
Normally, we wouldn't grumble about the U.S. economy adding a net 266,000 jobs in a month, but these aren't normal times.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 10, 2021

Capital Market View: More on the Payroll Puzzle
After another pass, claims offered a clue that job growth would be weak.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 10, 2021

Time of the Essence in U.S. Pipeline Closure
If Colonial Pipeline petroleum flows are restored within a week or two, the shock waves will be minimal.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 10, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 6—Work and Work From Anywhere
We discuss the April employment report and work from anywhere.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 07, 2021

Jobs Report, Continued
We dig deeper into April's disappointing jobs report.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 07, 2021

Economic Roundup: Just a Bit Outside
April U.S. employment falls well short of expectations, supporting Fed's approach of patience.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 07, 2021

Capital Market View: Supply Doesn't Meet Demand
Several factors are weighing on labor supply, some are temporary.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 07, 2021

Canada Weekly: The Case for Optimism
Economic growth is poised to surge once the latest wave of infections abates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 07, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Jobs Disappoint
New jobs in April came in at one-third of our expectation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 07, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: BoE Keeps Policy Accommodative
The central bank will leave its key interest rate at the record-low 0.1%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2021

Economic Roundup: Initial Claims Drop, Productivity Bounces
Initial claims are now below 500,000 while a strong rebound in productivity continued in Q1.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2021

Initial Takeaways From 2020 Decennial Census Results
As national population growth slows, states lean on advantages to increase in-migration.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2021

Initial Takeaways From 2020 U.S. Census Results
As national population growth slows, states lean on advantages to increase in-migration.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2021

Capital Market View: It's Back
The Treasury Department warns about the need to raise the debt ceiling.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2021

Final Thoughts Ahead of April U.S. Employment
The forecast is for a net 900,000 gain in nonfarm employment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 05, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Carrying Momentum
The recovery in job growth continues to accelerate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 05, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Market Takes Center Stage
The ADP National Employment Report signals a strong April jobs report.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 05, 2021

Q2 U.S. GDP Tracking Begins
Our initial estimate puts second-quarter growth at 13% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 05, 2021

U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Up, but Not High
Costs per gallon on average are comparable to two years ago.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 05, 2021

Capital Market View: Night of the Living Dead?
Zombie firms have been on the rise in recent decades.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 04, 2021

Economic Roundup: Pedal to the Metal
U.S. fiscal stimulus has contributed to a red-hot auto market and a widening nominal trade deficit.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 04, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: All Eyes on India
Available data indicate that nearly 1 in 20 of the world's adults are fully inoculated against COVID-19.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 04, 2021

Macroeconomic Consequences of the American Families Plan and the Build Back Better Agenda
The president's proposal is a bold effort to invest in the nation's infrastructure and labor force.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 03, 2021

Economic Roundup: A Pair of Disappointments
ISM manufacturing survey and construction spending fail to live up to expectations.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 03, 2021

Capital Market View: Fed May Need to Make Technical Adjustment
The overwhelming amount of liquidity in the money markets could force the Fed to alter IOER and RRP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 03, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 5—Lumber and Labor Force
We talk the Biden administration's American Families Plan and who deserves credit for the booming U.S. economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 03, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Let the Good Times Roll
Economic indicators last week left us feeling optimistic.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 03, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 3, 2021
Metro-area job growth is occurring evenly across the country.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 03, 2021

How Will Remote Work Change Migration Patterns?
U.S. population flows could see a major shake-up.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 02, 2021

This Week in the COVID Crisis
Once the economy has returned to full employment, addressing our long-term fiscal problems will become critical.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 30, 2021

Economic Roundup: Record U.S. Personal Income Gain Thanks to Uncle Sam
Nominal personal income jumped 21.1% in March, but only 1.4% excluding transfer payments.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 30, 2021

Capital Market View: Booming Economy Limits Rating Downgrades
Number of high-yield rating upgrades outnumber downgrades in the first quarter.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 30, 2021

Taking the Pulse of U.S. Inflation Expectations
Our new measure was stable last week but has been quickening.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 30, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Biden Unveils Next Spending Plan
The president proposes a $1.8 trillion plan for workers, families and children.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 30, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Biden Makes Case for Additional U.S. Spending
The president's two-part plan would call for $4.6 trillion over the next decade.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Economy Off to Good Start
We may need to revise our forecast higher for this year but not because of Biden's address.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2021

U.S. Baseline Forecast Unchanged After Biden Address
Fiscal policy took center stage in the President's speech, but nothing was said to alter our assumptions.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2021

The U.S. Used-Vehicle Market Is Revved Up
Prices were up 28.8% on a year-over-year basis in March.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2021

Fiscal Stimulus Leaves Its Mark on Q1 U.S. GDP
Growth was 6.4% at an annualized rate, another big step in closing the output gap.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2021

Capital Market View: Monetary Policy Uncertainty Remains Extremely Low
Fed's commitment to flexible average inflation targeting will be tested, but uncertainty is low.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2021

For U.S. Regional Economies, March Was the Same, but Different
COVID-19 still influenced monthly growth, but vaccine uptake is having a positive effect.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 28, 2021

Economic Roundup: Final Thoughts Ahead of Q1 U.S. GDP
We look for GDP to have risen 7.1% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 28, 2021

First Take on the American Families Plan
The Biden proposal would provide further economic support with $1 trillion in spending and $900 billion in tax credits.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 28, 2021

Capital Market View: Fundamentals Support Low Volatility, Tight Spreads
High-yield corporate bond spreads will remain tight, but a return of volatility would change that.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 28, 2021

U.S. Confidence Approaches Pre-Pandemic Levels
Expectations lead the way.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 27, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumers Smiling More
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index has jumped over the past couple of months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 27, 2021

U.S. Consumers Could Spend Excess Saving Fast
The money is available.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 27, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker Update: One Billion Shots
It is unclear if resumed use of the Johnson & Johnson product will boost U.S. inoculations.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 27, 2021

Capital Market View: Taking It in Stride
The corporate segment recovery seems remarkable.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 27, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Plenty of Surprises
Our tracking estimate of first-quarter GDP has edged higher recently and is at 7.3% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 27, 2021

CEE Outlook: Down but Not Out
A third wave of the pandemic has got Central and Eastern Europe off to a slow start.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 27, 2021

U.S. Retail Revisions Downward and Uninformative
Revisions are minor in aggregate and show no change in patterns of growth before the pandemic.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 26, 2021

Economic Roundup: Don't Be Down on U.S. Durables
The details for goods orders were better than the 0.5% headline gain would suggest.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 26, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: When Will Infections Subside?
Our high-frequency GDP model puts annualized GDP growth in the first quarter at over 7%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 26, 2021

Capital Market View: Talking Taxes
Neither higher corporate or capital gains taxes will significantly dent the stock market or economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 26, 2021

FOMC Preview: No April Surprises, but Tapering Debate Will Heat Up
There will not be any significant changes, including to the Fed's forward guidance.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 26, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 26, 2021
The American economy will almost surely best China's as Chinese growth cools from a torrid pace.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 26, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 4—Rates and Reflation
Different inflation forecasts lead to different view on U.S. interest rates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 23, 2021

Economic Roundup: New-Home Sales Surge
Sales for two of the past three months have topped 1 million.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 23, 2021

Canada Weekly: Timing the taper
The central bank is first out of the gate in reducing the pace of quantitative easing purchases.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 23, 2021

Capital Market View: FOMC Meeting Unlikely to Rattle Bond Market
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will probably stick to a narrow range for a period of time.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 23, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Set for Gangbuster Year
March was the strongest month in decades for the economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 23, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: ECB Holds Course
The European Central Bank made no changes to its highly accommodative policy stance.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 23, 2021

U.S. Labor Market Participation for Women and Parents
The gender gap for prime-age adults widened during the COVID-19 school year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 22, 2021

Economic Roundup: Healthy Decline in U.S. Existing-Home Sales
Sales fell in March, reversing only some of the enormous jump in the second half of last year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 22, 2021

An Assessment of the American Housing and Economic Mobility Act of 2021
The proposal is fiscally responsible and empowers programs already in place and shown to be effective in meeting the challenges of providing affordable housing.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 22, 2021

Capital Market View: High-Yield Hot Streak Continues
Issuance in March was strong and the near-term outlook is favorable.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 22, 2021

A (More Comprehensive) Look Back at the COVID-19 Exposure Index
Revised data for 2020 show that early predictions about U.S. regional impacts generally proved correct.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 21, 2021

Economic Roundup: Inflation's Transitory Acceleration Is Contagious
Base effects are going to juice consumer prices across many developed economies.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 21, 2021

Capital Market View: If the Hypothetical Becomes Reality
A jump in long-term rates and drop in stock prices will hurt corporate bonds.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 20, 2021

Economic Roundup: Vaccine Hesitation Could Slow Progress Toward Herd Immunity
Vaccination progress still mixed among developed economies.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 20, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Ready, Set, Go
The recovery is gaining traction following a difficult winter.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 20, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Half of U.S. Adults Have a Shot
Conditions are mixed in Europe, while Japan faces an uphill task.

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