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 NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 23, 2020

Economic Roundup: AstraZeneca Adds to Vaccine Optimism
Vaccinations against COVID-19 in the U.S. are likely to begin in earnest prior to Inauguration Day.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 23, 2020

Giant Rally by Small-Company Stocks Thins High-Yield Spreads
Once markets are convinced that COVID-19 has been defeated, indexes will set record highs.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 23, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 23, 2020
We expect third-quarter GDP to be revised higher in the government's second estimate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 23, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Winter Is Coming
Bright spots remain, but rising infections and persistent labor market turmoil do not bode well.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 23, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Consumer Spending Takes a Hit
The increase in U.S. retail sales in October was the weakest this recovery.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 22, 2020

COVID-19 and Related Worries Push Shares and Corporates Lower
If corporate and municipal borrowing costs again soar, the backstop credit facilities will probably be restored immediately.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

Economic Roundup: Pandemic Takes a Dangerous Turn in the U.S.
As case counts reach new record highs on a near-daily basis, cracks emerge in the economic recovery.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Pandemic Enters Dangerous New Phase in U.S.
The "dark winter" experts warned of is about to take a major toll on regions' tenuous recoveries.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

Canada Weekly: A Regional Real Estate Recovery
Not all provinces and metro areas have been quite so bulletproof.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

Fed Stripped of Tools
Some emergency credit facilities will not be extended.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

Webinar Q&A: The Economic Consequences of the U.S. Election
Questions include the implications of a divided Congress and the importance of new stimulus.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Austria Compensates Frontline Sectors
The second wave of infections warrants more support for businesses.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2020

2021: Below-Average Interest Rates Despite Rapid Growth
U.S. real GDP growth of between 4% and 5% next year seems possible.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2020

Economic Roundup: Falling Through the Cracks
Millions of struggling Americans risk losing jobless benefits after December 31.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2020

Unsteady on the Fiscal Cliffs
A number of U.S. support measures, including some jobless benefits, are set to expire December 31.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2020

New Frontiers in the U.S. COVID-19 Crisis
The pandemic causes lines to be crossed, both literally and figuratively.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2020

Pandemic's Lasting Impact on U.S. Consumer Spending
The crisis will have more implications for what people buy than how much.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 18, 2020

COVID-19 Fears Sink Most, But Not All, U.S. Equities
The market value of U.S. common stock dropped by 1.02%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 18, 2020

Economic Roundup: Claims Confusion
As of now, 13 million are on unemployment programs set to expire but not all will lose them.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 18, 2020

New Vehicles Less Affordable as Incomes Drop
A new index captures components to gauge the American consumer's ability to purchase a new car, truck or SUV.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 18, 2020

Global Outlook: Virus Surge Pains Recovery
We now expect a weaker rebound through early 2021.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 17, 2020

Business Cycle-Sensitive Securities Ignore COVID-19 Risks
The Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transports, and Value Line Geometric were up.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 17, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Takes a Breather in October
The increase in retail sales in October was the weakest of this recovery.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 17, 2020

U.S. Statewide Lockdowns Back in Vogue
The federal government is expected to remain on the sidelines.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 17, 2020

Tweaking Our Tracking Estimates of Q3 and Q4 U.S. GDP
The third quarter had stronger growth, but the final three months aren't booming.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 17, 2020

Consumer Fatigue Sets In
U.S. retail sales rose 0.3% in October, the weakest this recovery.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

Vaccine Outlook Gives Markets Shot of Courage
The market value of U.S. common stock advanced by 1.24% to a record high.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

Economic Roundup: Ominous Sign from Canada's Thanksgiving
COVID-19 cases spiked in Canada after the holiday, and the U.S. could be next.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Approaching a Tipping Point
The U.S. recovery is entering the new COVID-19 surge in a fragile state.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 16, 2020
Housing data should be solid.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

2020 U.S. Election: No Big Surprises
Our 2020 presidential election models were accurate, with only a couple of blind spots.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 16, 2020

2020 U.S. Elections: No Big Surprises
Our 2020 presidential election models were accurate, with only a couple of blind spots.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

Cash-Rich America Primed to Spend Once COVID-19 Is Over
There's around $1.45 trillion in excess savings in U.S. accounts.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

U.S. Expected to Avoid a Broad Lockdown
Despite the rapid rise in COVID-19 cases, fresh shutdowns will be confined to state and local hotspots.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

Economic Roundup: Surging COVID-19 Cases Force States to Act
Oregon announced a state "freeze" while rising cases are hurting consumer confidence.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: It'll Get Worse Before It Gets Better
Odds for another pandemic relief bill getting passed in the lame-duck session are about as low as they've ever been.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Fading Chance for U.S. Stimulus
With a high probability of a divided government, pandemic aid soon is unlikely.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

Canada Weekly: Getting a Clearer Picture
Next week will include a number of economic releases.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: U.K. Extends Job Scheme Into 2021
The government also extended pay holidays on mortgages and other consumer credit instruments.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2020

U.S. Regional Economies Exhibiting Fatigue
Colder weather and a drastic increase in new COVID-19 infections weakened real-time metrics.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2020

Resurgent COVID-19 Fears Sink Equities, High-Yield Bonds
Business prospects have suddenly worsened in light of more coronavirus cases.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2020

Economic Roundup: Facing a Benefits Cliff
Continuing claims are declining as individuals lose their eligibility.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2020

U.S. Inflation Heat Map Update
Tuition declines combine with easing fuel inflation to temper CPI growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2020

Webinar Q&A: Pandemic Economics
Questions ranged from job security across sectors to mounting debt problems.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2020

Webinar Replay: The Economic Consequences of the U.S. Election
Big changes in policy are dead ahead.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 11, 2020

Upgrades Top Downgrades Thus Far in 2020's Final Quarter
After hitting a record-high 368 downgrades in the second quarter, it fell to 29 in the third.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 11, 2020

Economic Roundup: Elections Usually Don't Matter for U.S. Consumer Confidence
We don't find any evidence of political bias in two key measures of sentiment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 11, 2020

Business Closures and Entrepreneurship During COVID-19
We look at the impact in the U.S. on small-business closures and plans to start new businesses.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 10, 2020

Spec-Grade Bond Yields Drop to Record Lows
The Bloomberg/Barclays speculative-grade bond yield fell by 45 basis points.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 10, 2020

Economic Roundup: How the U.S. Baseline Changed Between October and November
The more things changed, the more they stayed the same.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 10, 2020

A COVID Winter Is Coming
Confirmed U.S. cases could continue to climb, and there won't be any fiscal stimulus to offset the impact.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 10, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: A Long Way to Go
The economy is regaining lost jobs, but rising coronavirus cases threaten to derail the recovery.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 09, 2020

Laggards Lead and Leaders Lag In Reaction to Vaccine News
The biggest winners were those most adversely affected by COVID-19.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 09, 2020

Economic Roundup: A Whirlwind Few Days
Election results and progress on a vaccine occurred but they don't warrant changes to the forecast.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 09, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 9, 2020
Stock investors appear cheered by the prospects for a divided government.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2020

This Week in the COVID Crisis
Having a clear political path forward will go a long way to shore up frayed psyches and the struggling economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 07, 2020

Biden and the Federal Reserve
Fiscal actions will factor into the timing of the first rate hike.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

High-Yield Spread Narrows to Late February's Range
If it holds, the market value of U.S. common stock will set a record high by year's end.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

Economic Roundup: Not Many Tricks But Plenty of Treats in October Employment
Unemployment rate continues to drop more quickly than anticipated, reducing odds of stimulus soon.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

Canada Weekly: Symptoms of Asymmetry
The pandemic's divergent impact across industries is solidifying.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: BoE Expands QE as Outlook Darkens
The Bank of England expanded its quantitative easing by £150 billion at its November meeting.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

Inventories Add Even More to Q3 U.S. GDP
We have nudged up our tracking estimate of Q3 GDP to 31.3%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: All Eyes on the U.S. Presidential Election
The outcome has enormous implications for the nation's economic prospects.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2020

Q4 U.S. GDP Tracking Is Up and Running
Preliminary estimate is for fourth-quarter GDP to rise 2.3% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2020

High-Yield CDX Sinks by 58 BPS Since October's End
The index fell by another 20 bps to 363 on Thursday.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2020

Economic Roundup: Drama in Georgia
It's possible that we may not know the makeup of the Senate until January.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2020

Final Thoughts Ahead of October U.S. Employment
We look for a 375,000 increase as the labor market's recovery slows.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2020

U.S. Regional COVID-19 Exposure Update
Structural factors and virus prevalence are now negatively correlated.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2020

Split Congress Lowers Bond Yields
Extreme changes in tax and regulations is highly unlikely.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2020

Economic Roundup: Par for the Course in 2020
The election is a nail-bitter, but there is no need to alter our baseline forecast.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2020

U.S. Election Update: A True Nail-Biter
Tuesday's results so far favor a narrow Biden victory and a divided Congress.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

World Equities Show China Leading U.S. with Europe Well Behind
China's Shanghai Composite has outperformed U.S. equities since the end of 2019.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed Wants You to Forget It Meets This Week
The meeting this week will be a snoozer.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

Final Thoughts Ahead of 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
Former Vice President Biden will win the White House, with Pennsylvania as the decider.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

Third Quarter Solid Rebound
Roughly 75% of the U.S. GDP decline in the second quarter was reversed.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Third Quarter Solid Rebound
Roughly 75% of the U.S. GDP decline in the second quarter was reversed.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 2, 2020
The key data released this week will take a backseat to the U.S. presidential election.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

U.S. Approaches a Rental Housing Crisis
The market continues to deteriorate due to the negative effects of COVID-19 and is quickly approaching a breaking point.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 02, 2020

Webinar Replay: Pandemic Economics
How COVID-19 is shaping American household behavior.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

U.S. Road to Recovery: Still K-Shaped
Third-quarter GDP jumped, but finances of those in the bottom half of the income distribution have been hit especially hard.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Spending Trajectory Is Favorable
But fading fiscal stimulus and rising COVID-19 cases will likely hurt consumption this quarter.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

Canada Weekly: The BoC Pivots to the Long Term
The central bank announced a recalibration of the quantitative easing program.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

Webinar Q&A: Final U.S. Election Model Update
Questions ranged from the effect of the pandemic to a new Supreme Court justice on Tuesday's vote.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

A Pattern Emerges in the Fed's MBS Holdings
Prepayments are behind drops in the Fed's balance sheet at the end of the past few months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: The Dismal Science
Hopes for a pre-election stimulus deal between congressional Democrats and the White House have dissipated.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

U.S. Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Europe Tightens Restrictions
As the pandemic worsens, the U.S. braces for the election.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 30, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: New Stimulus In Cards for Europe
Given the resurgence of COVID-19 on the Continent, new stimulus measures are on the horizon.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Corporates and Treasuries Question Equity Sell Off
The 10-year Treasury yield has barely budged from last Friday's close.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Corporates and Treasuries Question Equity Sell-Off
The 10-year Treasury yield has barely budged from last Friday's close.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Apple Mobility Trends Don't Fall Far From the Tree
Apple's high frequency data prove useful but not perfect for showing changes in U.S. driving.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Economic Roundup: What Goes Down, Must Go Up
U.S. GDP jumps in the third quarter, but there remains a sizable output gap.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: A Contested Election and the Economy
Delayed results could increase uncertainty and weigh on financial markets.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Now the Hard Work Begins
Reopening the economy and fiscal stimulus juiced Q3 U.S. GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Could Shifting COVID-19 Footprint Affect the U.S. Election?
In-person turnout may be affected as disease overtakes GOP strongholds in battleground states.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Changed U.S. Consumer Borrowing
Shifts in spending, income and lending standards have changed borrowing patterns substantially.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2020

Only Halfway Back in the U.S. Job Market
Half of the jobs lost to the pandemic shutdowns have come back, with low-wage industries still hardest hit.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 28, 2020

Credit Market Suggests Equity Market's Slide May Be Overdone
Despite the equity plunge, Treasuries didn't budge from their previous yield.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 28, 2020

Economic Roundup: Levels Don't Lie
We look for U.S. GDP growth of 3.59% in the second quarter, but this still isn't a V-shape recovery.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 28, 2020

Economic Challenges for Parents During COVID-19
U.S. households with children at home experienced sharper job and income losses than those with children not living at home.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 27, 2020

Stocks Fall Off a Wall of Worry
Uncertainty about the outcome of next week's elections causes markets to fret.

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