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Mar 27, 2020
New April baseline will show a sharp decline in Q2 GDP and a spike in the unemployment rate.
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Mar 27, 2020
Unemployment skyrockets, and there's fear of a second wave in China.
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Mar 27, 2020
The record spike in applications indicates that unemployment will soar above 8% and possibly higher.
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Mar 27, 2020
The economic tsunami rolls on.
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Mar 27, 2020
Central bank revs up Treasury purchases while discount window and credit facilities are tapped.
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Mar 27, 2020
Rightly or wrongly, markets sense that America may begin to normalize by the start of May.
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Mar 26, 2020
We answer questions submitted in response to our recent webinar.
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Mar 26, 2020
New filings hit a historic high, coming in at over 3 million.
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Mar 26, 2020
The need is great because affected U.S. workers are concentrated in industries paying the lowest wages.
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Mar 26, 2020
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits soared to 3.283 million.
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Mar 26, 2020
Congress is hoping small business treads water until a post-pandemic level of normalcy returns to consumer spending.
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Mar 26, 2020
New filings hit a record 3.283 million in the week ended March 21.
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Mar 26, 2020
The iShares iBoxx IG corporate bond ETF has soared by 16.7% during the past four trading days.
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Mar 25, 2020
A fiscal policy response was agreed upon but hasn't been signed, delaying when it will help.
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Mar 25, 2020
Home sales and construction activity will plummet in the second quarter.
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Mar 25, 2020
The deal is a crucial third step toward easing the economic hardships to come, but more can be done.
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Mar 25, 2020
A real shock will come when UI claims for last week are released; claims are widely expected to surpass 1 million.
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Mar 24, 2020
U.S. common stock jumped upward by 9.47%, albeit from a depressed base.
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Mar 24, 2020
Survey-based data continue to deteriorate, but to varying degrees.
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Mar 24, 2020
How can filers adjust their loss estimates in a reasonable and supportable manner?
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Mar 24, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic starts to exact its toll on the U.S. economy.
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Mar 24, 2020
The Fed will create special purpose vehicles that will purchase investment-grade corporate bonds.
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Mar 23, 2020
A historic day that pushes the Fed into uncharted territory.
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Mar 23, 2020
Key data will be initial claims, which we forecast to have surged in the latest week to exceed 2.7 million.
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Mar 23, 2020
Fed move is not enough to guarantee liquidity for all issuers. Fiscal policymakers need to step in.
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Mar 23, 2020
More financial pain is quickly coming as layoffs mount, businesses curtail investment, and retirement nest eggs evaporate.
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Mar 23, 2020
The spreading virus has created a worldwide economic tsunami that is now hitting the United States and Europe with full force.
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Mar 20, 2020
Yields dropped despite an ascent of U.S. government debt from 2007 to 2019.
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Mar 20, 2020
The U.S. economy is contracting as some industries are grinding to a halt.
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Mar 20, 2020
Large state and metro-area economies and those that rely heavily on tourism are most exposed.
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Mar 20, 2020
The rising costs have led lawmakers to accelerate and increase the size of their response.
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Mar 20, 2020
Parliament is out, but it may reconvene early to speed up action to fight the pandemic and its economic consequences.
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Mar 20, 2020
Oil-output talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia have broken down, and COVID-19 cases soar.
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Mar 19, 2020
This is the first time since the financial crisis that it's reached double digits.
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Mar 19, 2020
New filings jump and the worst is still to come.
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Mar 19, 2020
A new tool provides a window into which states and metro areas face the greatest economic threat
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Mar 19, 2020
Demand will be sapped not once but twice as the ripples of this devastating virus pulse through the economy.
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Mar 19, 2020
Initial claims jumped but the big surge is still to come.
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Mar 19, 2020
Don't be surprised to see a few defaults in the U.S. along the way.
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Mar 18, 2020
OpenTable shows enormous year-over-year declines in seated restaurant dinners.
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Mar 18, 2020
With no end in sight, the market value of U.S. common stock plunged by 5.85%.
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Mar 18, 2020
To date, our cumulative lost output estimate is -0.3% at an annualized rate.
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Mar 18, 2020
A COVID-19 outbreak is occurring, and the economic costs are rising quickly.
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Mar 18, 2020
Last week saw a massive shift toward discount stores.
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Mar 17, 2020
New York Fed's nonmanufacturing survey fell sharply in March.
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Mar 17, 2020
New York Fed's nonmanufacturing survey falls sharply for March.
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Mar 17, 2020
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 1.09%.
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Mar 17, 2020
The U.S. is only just starting to feel the economic fallout of COVID-19.
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Mar 17, 2020
Prices will fall but by less than crude oil.
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Mar 16, 2020
New record-high VIX warns of much wider corporate bond spreads.
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Mar 16, 2020
After using most of its tools, the Fed has some left.
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Mar 16, 2020
After using most of its tools, the Fed has some left.
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Mar 16, 2020
The Empire State manufacturing survey tanked in March.
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Mar 16, 2020
Little source data released for GDP are capturing the impact of COVID-19.
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Mar 16, 2020
The Fed is going big, but it can't control fiscal policy.
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Mar 16, 2020
The more widespread and virulent the virus, the greater the odds of a global downturn and the weaker the subsequent recovery.
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Mar 16, 2020
The onus is on the Trump administration and Congress to provide economic support.
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Mar 16, 2020
We will be watching initial claims.
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Mar 16, 2020
Some are hurt worse than others, and there are some offsetting positives.
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Mar 16, 2020
It is up to Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. government to determine the oil market's path.
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Mar 13, 2020
Friday's drop by the VIX favors lower EDFs.
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Mar 13, 2020
The president declares a national emergency along with fiscal stimulus.
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Mar 13, 2020
The economic costs have risen in the U.S. with the calls for citizens to practice social distancing.
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Mar 13, 2020
Downside risks abound to our sanguine forecast.
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Mar 13, 2020
With COVID-19 savaging demand, the last thing oil producers needed was a supply shock.
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Mar 13, 2020
A recession in the oil-producing provinces is almost guaranteed.
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Mar 13, 2020
Some segments of spending will decline sharply.
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Mar 13, 2020
The March baseline has global real GDP growth of 1.9%, compared with 2.4% in the February baseline.
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Mar 12, 2020
Policies to limit the virus are more important to markets than fiscal or monetary programs.
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Mar 12, 2020
Trump's proposal underwhelms, and the ECB did not go all in.
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Mar 12, 2020
Fiscal policymakers should worry more about its effectiveness than its price tag.
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Mar 12, 2020
It is not QE and not designed to stimulate the economy.
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Mar 12, 2020
We are not adopting a recession as the baseline yet, but risks of a downturn are rising quickly.
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Mar 12, 2020
COVID-19 has spurred significant changes to the outlook over the last two months.
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Mar 12, 2020
The degree to which the fall is cushioned varies by property type.
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Mar 12, 2020
Without a large, thought-out stimulus package, recession looks increasingly likely.
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Mar 12, 2020
U.S. political news coverage has shifted dramatically to the frantic scramble over the coronavirus.
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Mar 12, 2020
There were some hits but more misses.
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Mar 11, 2020
Short-term economic pain now is preferable to a long-term contraction.
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Mar 11, 2020
The U.K. launches fiscal stimulus and the BoE cuts interest rates.
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Mar 11, 2020
The tight labor market and coronavirus risks will weigh on recruitment.
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Mar 11, 2020
The White House and Congress need to act quickly.
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Mar 11, 2020
We answer questions submitted in response to our recent webinar.
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Mar 11, 2020
The first half of this year will be dicey; the policy response is key.
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Mar 11, 2020
COVID-19 has battered global growth expectations for 2020.
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Mar 10, 2020
The U.S. equity market would need to sink by another 17.4% to return to its 2018 low.
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Mar 10, 2020
Trump floats the possibility of a 0% payroll tax rate.
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Mar 10, 2020
The flurry of activity in financial markets is a boon to U.S. muni investors who saw prices rise to their highest levels in decades.
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Mar 09, 2020
COVID-19 fears and a crude oil plunge set markets panicking.
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Mar 09, 2020
The central bank is headed to a 0% fed funds rate.
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Mar 09, 2020
All eyes will remain on financial markets and whether the Federal Reserve opts to cut rates again ahead of its March meeting.
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Mar 09, 2020
The oil price collapse drags energy states into the coronavirus morass.
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Mar 09, 2020
Upbeat incoming data don't capture the expanding global reach of COVID-19.
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Mar 09, 2020
Oil's swoon yields three key consequences.
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Mar 09, 2020
Whether the economy crosses from expansion to recession may depend on the response of lawmakers and the White House.
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Mar 09, 2020
Get ready for oil in the $30s.
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Mar 09, 2020
They will have to be aggressive at their March meeting, if not sooner.
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Mar 09, 2020
The list of weights on the economy are quickly adding up.
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Mar 06, 2020
Job growth in February was strong but that was before COVID-19 came to the U.S.
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Mar 06, 2020
Global recession odds have increased with the number of countries and confirmed patients continuing to rise.
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