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Nov 13, 2019
The five-year TIPS contract now puts the expected annual rate of CPI inflation just under 1.6%.
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Nov 13, 2019
Firming U.S. inflation will not divert the Federal Reserve from its current course.
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Nov 13, 2019
U.S. lawmakers must pass another short-term spending bill next week to prevent a shutdown.
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Nov 12, 2019
The resolution of the UAW strike should boost manufacturing in November and December.
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Nov 12, 2019
The high-yield default rate of U.S. issuers rose from October 2018's 3.16% to October's 3.56%.
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Nov 12, 2019
Recent data highlight the extent of the trade war's damage to the U.S. farm sector.
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Nov 12, 2019
Minor disappointments indicate a slowing economy but are not a cause for alarm.
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Nov 11, 2019
The average high-yield loan spread was 58 bps wider than Barclays average high-yield bond spread.
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Nov 11, 2019
The U.K. dodged a technical recession, but Brexit continues to hurt.
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Nov 11, 2019
Key data coming up include retail sales, consumer and producer prices, industrial production, and business inventories.
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Nov 08, 2019
Third-quarter 2019's $1.256 trillion of outstanding high-yield U.S. corporate bonds included $319 billion of bonds from the riskiest credit ratings.
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Nov 08, 2019
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has continued its tear.
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Nov 08, 2019
Cooling of international trade may trigger a slowdown despite strong Q2 growth.
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Nov 08, 2019
Long-term rates have risen, helping steepen the yield curve, but there could be a cost.
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Nov 08, 2019
Growth has slowed in 2019, and will remain below potential in 2020.
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Nov 08, 2019
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership represents the world's largest trade deal.
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Nov 07, 2019
An easing of recession risk has driven benchmark bond yields higher.
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Nov 07, 2019
We will watch initial claims, but they are not perfect.
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Nov 07, 2019
We will watch initial claims, but they are not perfect.
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Nov 07, 2019
There have been some positive developments with regard to the U.S.-China trade tensions and Brexit.
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Nov 06, 2019
These bonds have advanced by 28.4% annually to $396 billion in 2019.
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Nov 06, 2019
We now put the economy at risk of a recession, but that does not mean it is imminent.
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Nov 06, 2019
The U.S. consumer is shouldering all the burden in preventing the slowing from turning into something worse.
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Nov 06, 2019
Issues with the 737 MAX are likely shaving tenths of a percentage point off GDP.
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Nov 05, 2019
Net exports have a shot at adding to Q4 U.S. GDP.
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Nov 05, 2019
The slowdown with the profits recession of 2015-2016 was more severe than the latest deceleration.
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Nov 05, 2019
We are leaning toward removing the December rate cut and putting it in mid-2020.
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Nov 05, 2019
We are leaning toward removing the December rate cut and putting it in mid-2020.
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Nov 05, 2019
Third-quarter output and October employment surprised to the upside.
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Nov 05, 2019
Fourth quarter growth is now tracking 1.2%.
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Nov 05, 2019
While U.S. homeownership has fallen and student debt has risen, the causal link is ambiguous.
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Nov 05, 2019
The overall results of the latest exercise relative to a year ago are unmistakably positive.
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Nov 04, 2019
Three models generated a midpoint of 413 basis points for the high-yield bond spread.
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Nov 04, 2019
Banks are tightening lending standards on C&I, but not enough to raise a red flag, yet.
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Nov 04, 2019
Economy.com has a new look, new features, and a new name.
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Nov 04, 2019
The U.S.-China trade war remains at the forefront.
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Nov 04, 2019
Nonetheless, our forecast is fraught with a handful of wild cards.
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Nov 01, 2019
U.S. job growth was noticeably better than we expected in October.
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Nov 01, 2019
We have begun tracking fourth-quarter growth, and it is not looking good.
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Nov 01, 2019
Over the next 10 years, 20- to 64-year-olds are expected to increase by only 360K.
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Nov 01, 2019
The U.K. is navigating snap elections amid Brexit anxieties.
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Nov 01, 2019
The recent increase in business borrowing sends mixed signals for investment.
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Oct 31, 2019
By no means has the Fed unequivocally indicated that 1.625% is the absolute bottom for fed funds' midpoint.
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Oct 31, 2019
It could look bad on the surface, but it is more noise than signal.
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Oct 31, 2019
Our preliminary estimate is that the Kincade fire will cost at least $580 million to $800 million.
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Oct 31, 2019
Watch out; there will be more noise than signal in this report.
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Oct 31, 2019
The prospect that Treasury does succeed in privatizing the GSEs is most concerning.
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Oct 30, 2019
The market value of U.S. common equity increased by 0.27% to an all-time high.
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Oct 30, 2019
Fed gearing up to take a seat on the bench and see if three cuts were enough.
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Oct 30, 2019
U.S. consumers keep spending, and business investment's poor run continues with no sign of a recession.
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Oct 29, 2019
The recent below-average high-yield bond spread shows that the market has priced in return of above-trend business activity.
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Oct 29, 2019
Consumer confidence fell in October, but pending home sales posted a solid gain in September.
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Oct 29, 2019
We look for third-quarter growth of 1.6% annualized.
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Oct 29, 2019
Households continue to take on credit despite rising economic uncertainty.
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Oct 29, 2019
Home sales slipped in September, but the broader trend remains positive.
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Oct 29, 2019
Economic conditions for U.S. state and local governments are as good as they will get this business cycle.
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Oct 29, 2019
A record high for the market value of common stock is not a trustworthy leading indicator of the business cycle.
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Oct 28, 2019
Inventories will be a noticeable drag.
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Oct 28, 2019
We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points.
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Oct 28, 2019
The deceleration in job growth is likely to persist into next year.
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Oct 25, 2019
The implied EDF ratings of the 86 Baa3 credits averaged nearly Baa2.
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Oct 25, 2019
The lineup features Brexit, U.S. GDP, employment, and the FOMC.
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Oct 25, 2019
A cut, two hawkish dissents, and a hint that this easing cycle could be coming to an end.
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Oct 25, 2019
Our overall outlook stays the same, but a few changes after the vote are noteworthy.
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Oct 24, 2019
Moody's Investors Service forecasts a global default rate of 3.2% by September 2020.
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Oct 24, 2019
The ECB's Lagarde will pick up where Draghi left off.
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Oct 23, 2019
The latest data showed U.S. businesses had $1.207 trillion of outstanding high-yield bonds.
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Oct 23, 2019
The latest data showed U.S. businesses had $1.207 trillion of outstanding high-yield bonds.
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Oct 23, 2019
We look for durable goods orders to have fallen in September because of transportation.
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Oct 23, 2019
A slowing national economy will have broad regional ramifications.
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Oct 22, 2019
If a recession risk were on the rise, share prices of companies with exposure would be declining.
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Oct 22, 2019
Sales can be choppy but the trend in September has clearly improved thanks to lower mortgage rates.
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Oct 21, 2019
With its presumed October rate cut, the Fed could make this the shortest inversion since 1998.
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Oct 21, 2019
Brexit and the trade tensions are not helping.
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Oct 21, 2019
Temporary factors may have distorted data on industrial production, housing starts and retail sales.
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Oct 21, 2019
Expect the Fed to be quiet in the blackout period before its October FOMC meeting.
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Oct 21, 2019
Will policymakers figure out their mistakes and fix them in time to avoid recession?
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Oct 18, 2019
All signs point toward a Fed rate cut later this month, but then things get interesting.
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Oct 18, 2019
A further upturn by home sales would strengthen the case for a continued upswing by U.S. consumer spending.
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Oct 18, 2019
The effects for commodity prices and trade flows would help offset a slowdown in global growth.
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Oct 17, 2019
Since 1984, the NAI's moving three-month average has exceeded 0.70 in only 15 of 416 months.
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Oct 17, 2019
Brexit agreement sets up key weekend vote for U.K. Parliament.
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Oct 16, 2019
Over the last six trading days, the index advanced 6.1% to outrun the market.
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Oct 16, 2019
A number of possible temporary factors hurt spending in September.
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Oct 16, 2019
High-income households dominate, but the strong labor market supports lower-income spending.
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Oct 16, 2019
Growth in the latest quarter is now on track to rise 1.5% at an annualized rate.
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Oct 16, 2019
A number of transitory factors may have weighed on results.
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Oct 15, 2019
High-yield spreads are more likely to widen than narrow.
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Oct 15, 2019
All signs point toward Trump winning re-election.
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Oct 15, 2019
It would ease the financial pressure on borrowers and support stronger economic growth.
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Oct 15, 2019
Early signs point to Trump, though turnout is key.
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Oct 15, 2019
A sharp collapse of oil prices at the end of the year has kept 2019 spending lower.
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Oct 14, 2019
One model estimates a midpoint of 489 basis points for the composite high-yield bond spread.
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Oct 14, 2019
New York Fed releases manufacturing survey a day early and the data were mixed.
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Oct 14, 2019
Data this week, including industrial production, could be impacted by the UAW strike that began in September.
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Oct 14, 2019
The most recent data give the Fed cover for another rate cut this month.
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Oct 11, 2019
The U.S. and China have agreed to address some of their short-term rifts.
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Oct 11, 2019
The VIX dropped to its lowest level since September 23.
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Oct 11, 2019
PG&E cut power to much of California this week in an attempt to prevent wildfires.
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Oct 11, 2019
With a novel approach, we separate the effect of foreign demand from overall nonresident demand.
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