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 NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 21, 2024

Economic Roundup: Low Inventory Keeps Lifting Prices
The dearth of homes for sale in the U.S. continues to push prices up.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 21, 2024

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 21, 2024
Two key measures of consumer confidence, from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan, will be released next week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 21, 2024

Canada Weekly: (Don't Fear) the Repo
Does building pressure in Canada's repo markets indicate broader liquidity stress?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 21, 2024

U.S. Household Debt Tracker: Baby Steps
Total dollar delinquencies are the highest since April 2020 but remain well below the five-year average leading up to the pandemic.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 21, 2024

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Middle East Tensions Rise
Hezbollah, a terrorist group in Lebanon, is increasing threats against Israel.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 20, 2024

Economic Roundup: BoE Willing to Wait
The Bank of England kept its main policy rate unchanged in June.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 20, 2024

Assessing the Macroeconomic Consequences of Biden vs. Trump
Both major candidates for U.S. president have a wide range of proposals that could have significant impacts on the econoomy for years to come.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 20, 2024

Inside Economics Podcast: Stubborn Inflation, Reluctant Fed
Mark Zandi hosts a webinar on the course ahead for inflation and monetary policy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 18, 2024

Happy Holiday
Our U.S. offices will be closed Wednesday for Juneteenth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 18, 2024

Economic Roundup: Big Day for Data
A flurry of economic data in the U.S. will contribute positively to growth in the second quarter.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2024

Economic Roundup: A More Encouraging Month for NY Factories
Though negative, demand pushed the Empire State Manufacturing index to its highest point in months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2024

U.S. Risk Matrix: Isolationism and Its Costs
Increased tensions between the U.S. and China, through tariffs and financial sanctions, will boost prices.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2024

U.S. Chartbook: The Fight Goes On
The Federal Reserve needs more evidence that inflation is moving in the right direction before cutting interest rates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2024

Global Outlook: Tick Tock
We are projecting a slight deceleration in global growth in 2024 to 2.5% from 2.7% in 2023.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2024

Lots of Red Flags, but No Action
What has caused several tried-and-true U.S. recession indicators to throw false positives?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 14, 2024

Canada Weekly: The ZEV Race to 2035
By 2035, all new-vehicle registrations must be for zero-emission vehicles. Are we close to target?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 14, 2024

Economic Roundup: What's Up With Consumers?
University of Michigan consumer sentiment posted a fourth decline in the last five months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 14, 2024

U.S. Road to Recession: More Modest Growth
After a few quarters of hot growth, economic expansion will cool in the year ahead.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 14, 2024

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 14, 2024
Homebuilders' confidence likely has remained low in June.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 14, 2024

Institutional Investors Maintain Strong Presence in U.S. Housing
We look at trends, regional disparities and implications for homeownership.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 14, 2024

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Shakeup for the EU Parliament
Voters moved to the right, creating uncertainty for the trajectory of policies on trade, climate and immigration.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 13, 2024

Prices Still Have U.S. Consumers on Edge
Inflation may be falling, but inflation expectations and uncertainty remain high and confidence low.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 13, 2024

Economic Roundup: More Good News on Inflation
Following an encouraging CPI report, PPI cooled more than expected in May.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 12, 2024

Economic Roundup: Doubleheader
May's CPI report and June's FOMC meeting made for a busy Wednesday.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 11, 2024

Economic Roundup: U.S. Small Businesses Remain on Edge
Main Street is anxious about the future, and we made few major changes to our baseline in June.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 11, 2024

New Border Policy Will Limit, Not Derail Immigration
If immigration is sharply curtailed, either by this order or other changes to federal immigration policy, it will have substantial consequences for the U.S. economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 11, 2024

Final Thoughts Ahead of May's U.S. CPI
We expect 0.1% and 0.3% growth, respectively, in the headline and core consumer price index.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 11, 2024

Main Street Expects the Worst Amid Heightened Uncertainty
The gap between the NFIB's hard and soft data indexes is about the largest it's ever been.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 11, 2024

U.S. Chartbook: A Balancing Act
A loosening but resilient labor market remains on steady footing.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 10, 2024

Economic Roundup: Business Sentiment Stuck in Neutral
Inflation and the Federal Reserve will be in focus this week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 10, 2024

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 167—Making Sense of the Jobs #
Mark Zandi says the Fed needs to cut interest rates soon.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 07, 2024

U.S Jobs Report Cont'd: Bulwark
Despite pervasive gloom, the labor market keeps the U.S. economic expansion rolling along.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 07, 2024

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 7, 2024
May's CPI should show some easing.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 07, 2024

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Market Does It Again
Payroll employment rose by 272,000 in May, coming in stronger than our above-consensus projection.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 07, 2024

Canada Outlook: First-Mover Advantage
The Bank of Canada's pivot ahead of other G-7 central banks will help jump-start growth later this year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 07, 2024

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Europe Elects a New Parliament
The institution will likely be more divisive in the next five years.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 07, 2024

Struggling U.S. Households Are Not So Easy to Describe
The various and diverse drivers of consumer finances make it difficult to generalize by income group or demographics.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 06, 2024

Economic Roundup: ECB Transitions to Rate Cuts
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June; now, all eyes in the U.S. are on Friday's jobs report.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 06, 2024

Final Thoughts Ahead of May U.S. Employment
We look for the economy to have added 225,000 jobs, on net, in May.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 05, 2024

Economic Roundup: Bank of Canada Makes the First Move
The June rate cut marks the first central bank pivot among G-7 countries.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 04, 2024

Economic Roundup: Job Openings Cool
According to April's JOLTS report, openings fell to just 8.1 million, the lowest level since 2021.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 04, 2024

U.S. High-Frequency GDP Update
The 1.9% annualized growth in the second quarter would mark a modest acceleration.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 04, 2024

OPEC Abandons Dream of $100 Oil
The cartel's production cuts are proving unsustainable.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 04, 2024

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 166—Economic Exceptionalism
Why is the U.S. economy outperforming much of the world?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 04, 2024

Assessing the Impact of Homeowners Insurance on House Prices and Affordability
Moody's Analytics will incorporate costs of insurance and property taxes into its house price forecasting models.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 03, 2024

Economic Roundup: Goods Producers Facing Headwinds
The latest data on U.S. construction spending and the ISM Manufacturing Survey were soft.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 03, 2024

U.S. Chartbook: Inflation Holds Steady
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation advanced 0.2% in April, keeping the annual rate unchanged from the previous month and still above target.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 31, 2024

Economic Roundup: Keeping a 2024 Cut Alive
As expected, April's PCE deflator showed some welcome moderation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 31, 2024

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 31, 2024
The May employment report is likely to show a second straight month of moderating job growth after an impressive first quarter.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 31, 2024

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Trump Convicted
The former U.S. president and his legal team are likely to appeal, as they believe he was prosecuted on political grounds.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 31, 2024

Canada Weekly: Monetary Mismatch
Why is the Bank of Canada concerned about cutting rates too soon before the Fed?

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 30, 2024

Economic Roundup: Pending Home Sales Hit a New Low
In April, the pending home sales index fell 7.7% from the prior month.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 30, 2024

A Slow Return to the Office
Across U.S. metro areas, remote work, which grew during the pandemic, continues to varying degrees.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 29, 2024

Economic Roundup: Mixed Messages on U.S. Manufacturing
The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index improved in May, but the outlook remains cloudy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 29, 2024

U.S. Chartbook: Soldiering On
The Federal Reserve cleared up any misconception about coming rate cuts.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 29, 2024

U.S. Regional Outlook: Labor Market Tightness Still Matters
Income gains are pronounced in the Mountain West, an area that has struggled to digest rapid cost increases.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 28, 2024

Economic Roundup: Consumer Confidence Perks Up...but Not Much
Consumer confidence ticked up in May, but high prices and interest rates are keeping anxiety high.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 28, 2024

Explaining the Biden Administration's Latest Tariffs
Though narrow, the latest levies represent further distancing between the U.S. and China.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 28, 2024

Canada Risk Matrix: Decision Time
The time is nearing for the Bank of Canada to pivot.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 28, 2024

U.S. State and Local Outlook: The Rising Costs of Public Sector Compensation
Success in keeping expense growth under control will be vital to avoid a funding cliff as revenue growth slows and federal aid dries up.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 28, 2024

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 165—Assets and Answers
Listener questions are on the agenda.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 26, 2024

Holiday Notice
Our U.S. offices will be closed Monday, May 27 for Memorial Day.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2024

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 24, 2024
The latest report on Fed's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditure deflator, is due from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2024

Economic Roundup: Consumer Confidence Weakens
Consumer confidence plummeted in the U.S. as Canada and the U.K. face retail sales declines.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2024

U.S. CPI by Demographics: Younger Americans Face Hotter Inflation
An update on how rising prices affect demographic groups indicates that higher-income households are faring better.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2024

Canada Weekly: All the Way to the Floor?
This week signaled the start of a new phase in monetary policy at the central bank.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2024

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Iran's President Dies in Crash
Ramifications of Ebrahim Raisi's death are likely to be limited.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2024

U.S. Election Tracker: Tighter and Tighter
We project Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania to be won on less than 1-percentage point margins of victory.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 23, 2024

Economic Roundup: A Slower Month for New-Home Sales
Though sales came in under expectations, the market for new homes is performing historically well.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 23, 2024

Credit Market View: Corporate Defaults Rebound
Distressed exchange remained the predominant type of default.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 23, 2024

U.S. Credit Outlook: Past the Peak
The credit cycle is entering a stage of progressively slower growth, if not decline, accompanied by gradually deteriorating performance.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 22, 2024

A Quick Look at Biden's New Student Loan Forgiveness Plan
The proposal would provide relief for a narrower group of borrowers than prior plans.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 22, 2024

Economic Roundup: Housing Still Handcuffed
U.S. existing-home sales fell by more than expected in April.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 22, 2024

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 164—Inflation...Could've Been Worse
Should the Fed start lowering rates rates sooner than later?

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 22, 2024

Biden Targets the Northeast for Gasoline Price Relief
The inventory release moves the needle, but not by much.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 22, 2024

Delinquencies and Rates: Higher for Longer
U.S. consumer auto credit remained under the yellow caution flag through the first quarter of 2024.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 21, 2024

Economic Roundup: Canada's CPI Hits All the Right Notes
Top-line inflation cooled to 2.7% following a 0.2% monthly gain.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 21, 2024

Harmonizing the Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure
A new way to look at U.S. inflation should calm nerves.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 21, 2024

U.S. Bankruptcy Filings Will Rise
The two biggest weights on household finances at present are high and rising prices and high interest rates that are driving up the cost of borrowing.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 21, 2024

Progress Toward a Balanced U.S. Housing Market Stalls
Homeowners feel locked into lower-rate mortgages, and for-sale inventories are about half those of a healthy market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 21, 2024

Global Outlook: Approaching the Dawn of Rate Cuts
The coming, much-awaited easing in monetary policy rates will boost global growth in the latter half of the year and into 2025.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 21, 2024

U.S. Chartbook: The Thorn in Inflation's Side
The CPI resumed its descent, but owners' equivalent rent continues to limit progress.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 20, 2024

Economic Roundup: It's Oh So Quiet
Housing data and business and consumer sentiment surveys highlight the week's economic reports.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 20, 2024

U.S. Presidential Election Model Update: Trump Gains Two States
We provide monthly updates to our 2024 presidential election prediction to assess the impact of new economic data and changes in our U.S. national and state forecasts.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 20, 2024

U.S. Outlook: Considering the Alternatives
The economy is performing well, and the most likely scenario is for a soft landing in the coming year; still, there are better and worse alternative scenarios in the distribution of possible outcomes.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 20, 2024

A New U.S. E-Commerce Sales Equilibrium
The pandemic permanently increased online shopping.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2024

Economic Roundup: Poor Expectations Weigh on LEI
While the LEI no longer flashing red, it suggests the economy will face near-term headwinds.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2024

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 17, 2024
A quieter week awaits after this week's flood of economic news.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2024

Canada Weekly: Dialing In Next Week's CPI
The details of the forthcoming inflation report will prove crucial to the BoC's next announcement.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2024

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Assassination Attempt in Slovakia Undermines National Stability
Social unrest follows the attack on Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 16, 2024

Economic Roundup: Homebuilding Reaccelerates
After declining in March, new residential construction moved up again in April.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 15, 2024

Economic Roundup: Expected News Is Good News
The 0.3% increase in the headline and core CPI in April was expected and welcome.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 15, 2024

Q2 U.S. GDP Tracking Is Off and Running
Our model's first run puts second-quarter growth at 1.9% annualized.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 14, 2024

Economic Roundup: Feeling Anxious
Producer price inflation surprised to the upside and Fed Chair Powell reiterates patience.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 14, 2024

Final Thoughts Ahead of April's U.S. CPI
Following a 0.4% monthly increase in March, we expect headline and core inflation of 0.3% in April.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 14, 2024

Credit Market View: Monetary Policy Forecast Changes
Persistent high inflation and recent statements from Fed officials did cause us to remove one interest rate cut from 2024 with the first cut now in September.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2024

Economic Roundup: A Big Week Ahead
Global business sentiment is on the rise, but inflation will draw most of the attention this week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2024

U.S. Consumers Lead, Tentatively
Spending growth looks set to slow but not stop.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2024

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 163—Houser on the Green Energy Transition
We explore the potential impact of the upcoming election on the green energy transition.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2024

U.S. Chartbook: Confidence Tumbles
There is hope that consumers' faith in the economy will revive; gasoline prices appear to be at or near their peak, and both house prices and the labor market remain strong.

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