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Jul 23, 2021
Labor Force Survey population estimates reveal disruptions to internal migration.
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Jul 23, 2021
Delta variant is a downside risk to the U.S. forecast, but there are few signs it's hurting.
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Jul 23, 2021
Without the aid, GDP would be about 7.5% smaller in the second and third quarters.
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Jul 22, 2021
Increase in initial claims is no cause for concern and not tied to the COVID-19 Delta variant.
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Jul 22, 2021
Stellar vaccination rates bolster the outlook for the months ahead.
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Jul 22, 2021
M&A was cited frequently as the use of proceeds from bond issuance in Q2.
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Jul 22, 2021
The demise of international and business travel has hit some U.S. metro areas harder than others.
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Jul 21, 2021
Economic gravity has caught up to the market.
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Jul 21, 2021
Washington DC weighs Biden's Build Back Better agenda and Fed Chairman Powell's renomination.
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Jul 21, 2021
The steepest increases in cases are in states where vaccination rates are the lowest.
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Jul 21, 2021
Positive momentum can't last forever.
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Jul 21, 2021
Greater investments in U.S. public infrastructure and social programs will lift productivity and labor force growth.
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Jul 20, 2021
Additional new-home supply in the U.S. is coming, although the timing is unclear.
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Jul 20, 2021
Based on the U.K. experience so far, the drag on the U.S. economy should be modest.
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Jul 20, 2021
The rapid spread of the Delta variant is causing jitters in markets and prompting renewed restrictions.
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Jul 20, 2021
Constraints to labor market participation should fall away with the reopening of schools in the fall and an increase in vaccinations.
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Jul 20, 2021
Gasoline prices were last this high in 2014.
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Jul 19, 2021
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield could drop to 1% before it bottoms.
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Jul 19, 2021
The economic recovery is on solid ground, but the variant represents a growing downside risk.
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Jul 19, 2021
Rising volatility in the equity market signals that corporate bond spreads could widen.
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Jul 19, 2021
The acceleration in U.S. consumer prices isn't over.
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Jul 19, 2021
Mortgage balance growth has been strongest in the South, mirroring unemployment rate data showing the region's job market has been stronger than the nation's overall.
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Jul 19, 2021
Does the performance of China's economy's presage what's coming for the U.S.?
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Jul 16, 2021
Consumers keep doing their part.
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Jul 16, 2021
Supply chain issues and so-so aggregate demand growth have been a headwind to manufacturing.
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Jul 16, 2021
Momentum has helped to support the bull market.
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Jul 16, 2021
The BoJ decided to keep its policy steady.
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Jul 15, 2021
Many key economic data for the U.S. and China were released on Thursday.
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Jul 15, 2021
Global economic data have come in weaker than expected, but don't be gloomy on the outlook.
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Jul 15, 2021
Numerous real-time sources show practically no benefit from ending additional $300 per week so far.
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Jul 14, 2021
He isn't ready to taper yet but some inflation jitters creep into his comments.
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Jul 14, 2021
The ECB will be more involved in the rapidly growing ESG-linked bond market.
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Jul 14, 2021
The reopening of the economy and new- and-used-vehicle prices were responsible for 55.6% of the increase in the headline CPI in June.
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Jul 14, 2021
Despite an eye-catching 0.9% increase, temporary factors kept driving CPI higher in June.
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Jul 14, 2021
The money is mostly held by older, higher-income households; will they spend it?
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Jul 13, 2021
The June CPI details strengthen the narrative that temporary factors are juicing inflation.
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Jul 13, 2021
Infections are ramping up across Europe.
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Jul 13, 2021
The bulk of the increase was once again in used cars and reopening segments.
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Jul 12, 2021
We look for the CPI to have risen 0.7% in June, stronger than the consensus.
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Jul 12, 2021
While there are signs the recovery has passed its peak growth period, the Fed is in no rush to begin tapering its monthly asset purchases.
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Jul 12, 2021
Treasury has to cut its cash balance at the Fed by $300 billion by the end of this month.
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Jul 12, 2021
Our GDP forecast for this year saw a small downward revision, the first in a while.
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Jul 12, 2021
A well functioning payment system that removes friction for people doing commerce enables economic growth.
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Jul 12, 2021
Ongoing lockdowns are illustrative of the difficulties emerging from the pandemic and getting economies on a sustained recovery path.
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Jul 11, 2021
Interest rates are tied to the economy's long-term growth—and they are headed higher.
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Jul 09, 2021
China's CPI was up 1.1% on a year-ago basis in June and will move lower over the next few months.
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Jul 09, 2021
In April—the most recent month of data—manufacturing sales in the auto industry plummeted a drastic 37% compared with March.
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Jul 09, 2021
Our forecast is down slightly from a total of $1.5 billion to $1.4 billion.
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Jul 08, 2021
Don't read too much into claims while concerns about the Delta variant are weighing on yields.
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Jul 08, 2021
Spreads will remain tight in the second half of this year, but will widen in 2022.
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Jul 08, 2021
There was a small downward revision to our GDP forecast for this year, the first in a while.
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Jul 08, 2021
More Americans are living in multigenerational homes either by choice or necessity.
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Jul 08, 2021
U.S. regional and local infection rates and economic data depend much on the uptake of vaccinations.
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Jul 07, 2021
Fed still on track to taper early next year and it's betting on inflation being transitory.
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Jul 07, 2021
The Treasury has drawn down its General Account faster than expected.
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Jul 07, 2021
The 'Phuket sandbox' could become a model for other vacation hotspots in Asia.
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Jul 06, 2021
There are more signs that the U.S. economy's peaking is pushing long-term rates lower.
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Jul 06, 2021
June's jobs report impressed...mostly.
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Jul 06, 2021
Can't keep pace with 2020, but still on track for a potent year.
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Jul 06, 2021
A stronger-than-expected jobs report capped off last week's packed release calendar.
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Jul 02, 2021
The workweek fell, long-term unemployed rose, and the participation rate didn't change.
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Jul 02, 2021
Our U.S. offices will be closed Monday, July 5 in observance.
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Jul 02, 2021
The net gain of 850,000 was higher than our above-consensus forecast of 750,000 and marks the biggest monthly gain since August.
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Jul 02, 2021
Airlines have held onto their staff, expecting a rebound.
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Jul 02, 2021
Labor force participation remains lower than before the pandemic.
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Jul 02, 2021
For each detail in the employment report that was encouraging, we can find one that wasn't.
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Jul 01, 2021
Strongest growth this cycle could be behind us, but growth will remain very strong.
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Jul 01, 2021
Bond market has digested the reports well this year, but that could change going forward.
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Jul 01, 2021
We look for a 750,000 net gain and a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.6%.
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Jun 30, 2021
ADP report shows solid gain in U.S. employment while pending home sales unexpectedly jumped.
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Jun 30, 2021
The Conference Board index is unique in approaching pre-pandemic levels.
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Jun 30, 2021
With lots of churn in the job market, first prints of employment could be less reliable.
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Jun 29, 2021
Consumers' assessment of the labor market is the highest it's been since 2000.
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Jun 29, 2021
Economic stress from price pressures remains localized.
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Jun 29, 2021
Highest yields and largest returns continue to entice investors to take on more risk.
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Jun 29, 2021
There are now 18 COVID-19 vaccines that are approved in at least one country.
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Jun 28, 2021
What would be the catalyst for a correction?
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Jun 28, 2021
The factors that pushed up inflation in the previous month moderated a bit.
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Jun 28, 2021
The economic calendar is busy but backloaded.
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Jun 28, 2021
Fundamentals remain supportive and investment should continue to climb.
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Jun 28, 2021
We look for the unemployment rate to decline from 5.8% to 5.6% for June.
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Jun 25, 2021
New data bite into the Q2 U.S. GDP tracking estimate.
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Jun 25, 2021
Many retail segments see strong price growth, but not all.
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Jun 25, 2021
The pandemic has created structural shifts in industry employment, creating labor market frictions.
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Jun 25, 2021
They favor oil prices ending this year higher than we expect.
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Jun 25, 2021
Many businesses that closed were likely the smallest and most vulnerable.
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Jun 24, 2021
The infrastructure deal could lead to some minor adjustments to the baseline forecast.
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Jun 24, 2021
The July baseline will likely include less in infrastructure outlays, but not a large reduction.
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Jun 24, 2021
The continuing semiconductor chip shortage could stretch into early 2022.
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Jun 24, 2021
By our estimate, the drop-dead date for raising the debt ceiling is October 18.
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Jun 23, 2021
New-home sales data for May will likely force a downgrade to our near-term baseline forecast.
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Jun 23, 2021
Favorable rating changes haven't been this high since 2013.
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Jun 22, 2021
With Asia's pickup, the world will likely see its 3 billionth vaccination this week.
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Jun 22, 2021
Homes are not sitting on the market for very long.
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Jun 22, 2021
Consumers are more likely to use excess savings to pay for oil price increases.
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Jun 22, 2021
Repricing activity has strengthened and will likely end the month on a solid note.
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Jun 22, 2021
Job growth is strong and the economy could return to full employment by the end of 2022.
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Jun 21, 2021
Key data released this week include home sales, durable goods orders, and PCE deflators.
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Jun 21, 2021
It has a poor track record, so we don't put too much stock in it beyond the current year.
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Jun 21, 2021
Busy week of May data, including new-home sales, shouldn't rattle the Fed.
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