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Sep 29, 2023
What are the economic consequences of a government shutdown?
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Sep 29, 2023
Did borrowers have the foresight to lock in when rates were low?
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Sep 29, 2023
Congress has so far failed to reach a spending agreement, upping the odds of a federal government closure this weekend.
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Sep 29, 2023
Barring a government shutdown that persists, the latest employment report is due next week.
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Sep 29, 2023
The U.S. government has begun notifying federal employees of the imminent shutdown.
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Sep 28, 2023
The current four-week moving average for initial claims is the lowest since February.
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Sep 28, 2023
We expect OPEC to maintain its production cuts through 2024, but we expect Saudi Arabia to end its excess 1 million-bpd cut.
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Sep 28, 2023
Rising borrowing costs have stunted demand—most evidently in the first mortgage and consumer installment markets.
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Sep 27, 2023
How much longer can excess savings support U.S. consumer spending?
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Sep 27, 2023
The more time passes, the less we know about U.S. consumers' excess savings and whether it will be spent.
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Sep 26, 2023
Business confidence moved down, while house prices continued on an upward climb.
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Sep 25, 2023
Once WGA members vote in favor of the new deal, the monthslong strike will come to an end.
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Sep 25, 2023
The Fed held its target range, and homebuilders' confidence fell.
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Sep 22, 2023
Borrowing costs are up, top-line growth is down, and consumer debt burdens are getting heavier.
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Sep 22, 2023
The United Auto Workers union launched additional strikes on Friday.
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Sep 22, 2023
Builders have stayed busy given the dearth of existing homes being listed for sale.
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Sep 22, 2023
The U.S. and Iran struck an agreement that brought home five Americans but sparked controversy over the release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian oil revenues.
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Sep 21, 2023
Sentiment metrics were a large weight on the index in August, but the hard data tell a different story.
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Sep 21, 2023
Sentiment metrics were a large weight on the index, but the hard data tell a different story.
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Sep 21, 2023
The Bank of England decided to pause rate hikes following better-than-expected inflation numbers.
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Sep 20, 2023
In an expected move, the FOMC did not lift the fed funds rate's target range at September's meeting.
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Sep 20, 2023
Risks are high that fuel costs will again hurt lower-income households.
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Sep 19, 2023
The clock is ticking on the October 1 deadline for the U.S. government to avert a shutdown.
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Sep 19, 2023
Core CPI, retail sales and industrial production came in stronger than expected for August.
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Sep 19, 2023
The biggest weight on retail growth is the shifting mix in consumer spending.
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Sep 19, 2023
U.S.-China decoupling is underway, but only a small cohort of economies stands to gain.
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Sep 19, 2023
the psychological effect for borrowers making their first student loan payments in over three years leads to an even greater pullback in spending than our simulations through the U.S. macroeconomic model would suggest.
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Sep 18, 2023
In addition to Wednesday's FOMC meeting, we await a handful of housing data this week.
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Sep 18, 2023
The economy is at full employment and enjoying stronger GDP and slower inflation. This should continue as long as consumers keep doing their part, and we expect they will. There are threats, but the consumer remains resilient.
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Sep 15, 2023
There will be a spotlight on the housing market next week, when we expect to see a slip in homebuilder confidence.
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Sep 15, 2023
UAW launched ‘staggered' strikes against the Big Three U.S. automakers on Friday.
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Sep 15, 2023
A new trade dispute is brewing between the EU and China.
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Sep 15, 2023
The impasse in the U.S. auto industry adds to recent labor strife, but effects on the wider economy remain uncertain.
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Sep 14, 2023
The ECB lifted policy rates by a quarter point, but we do not expect the Fed follows suit next week.
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Sep 13, 2023
Energy boosted U.S. inflation last month, while an unusual Treasury surplus was due to the Supreme Court.
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Sep 13, 2023
The Fed will look past this bout of higher energy prices ahead of its September meeting.
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Sep 13, 2023
Still, we are sticking to our baseline assumption that the Fed is done with interest-rate hikes for the current tightening cycle.
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Sep 13, 2023
Delinquencies on auto loans have risen to their highest level since the Great Recession and have refused to take a step back.
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Sep 13, 2023
Our third-quarter high-frequency growth estimate rose from 4.1% to 4.4% annualized.
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Sep 13, 2023
Commercial real estate prices are set to fall 14.4% peak to trough by 2025.
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Sep 13, 2023
Recent growth in the U.S. labor force can largely be attributed to foreign-born workers.
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Sep 13, 2023
The U.S. poverty rate held nearly steady.
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Sep 12, 2023
The NFIB's small business optimism index continues to reflect a difficult operating environment.
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Sep 12, 2023
While job growth appears to be slowing gracefully, wage growth is still too high to bring price inflation down to the Fed's 2% target.
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Sep 11, 2023
The slow start to the week is causing all eyes to zero in on Wednesday's CPI inflation report.
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Sep 11, 2023
A drop in orders last week—primarily due to the aircraft segment—was less severe than anticipated.
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Sep 11, 2023
Total U.S. consumer spending grew 9% in 2022, according to the latest Consumer Expenditure Survey.
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Sep 11, 2023
Most disconcerting is the prospect for more defaults on commercial real estate loans, which are in train.
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Sep 08, 2023
With inflation beginning to roll over, the Fed will pause hikes, but rates will stay high.
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Sep 08, 2023
We expect the strongest monthly increase in the headline CPI since June 2022.
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Sep 08, 2023
The Myanmar crisis made it to the top of the agenda at the ASEAN leaders' summit in Indonesia.
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Sep 07, 2023
The latest employment report showed some weakness, while UI claims remain quite low.
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Sep 07, 2023
A collision of two trends will weigh on future revisions to the U.S. August employment report.
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Sep 06, 2023
We continue to monitor for signs of a downturn, but incoming data have been promising.
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Sep 05, 2023
Volatile aircraft orders weighed on July factory orders, while new-vehicle sales have improved much from a year ago.
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Sep 05, 2023
The labor market data are softening, giving the Federal Reserve a better picture ahead of its September meeting.
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Sep 05, 2023
The fever is breaking, but consumer sentiment is still downbeat from a historical perspective.
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Sep 05, 2023
The drop in U.S. factory orders is deceptive, as it reflects volatility in aircraft orders.
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Sep 05, 2023
The August report on U.S. jobs has soft landing written all over it.
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Sep 03, 2023
Our U.S. offices are closed Monday, September 4, for the Labor Day holiday.
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Sep 01, 2023
August saw 187,000 jobs added in the U.S., though recent figures were revised downward significantly.
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Sep 01, 2023
We expect second-quarter productivity to be revised down but remain on its improved trajectory.
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Sep 01, 2023
Previous months' job gains were revised downward significantly and August's is usually revised up.
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Sep 01, 2023
In addition, the release of China's latest ‘standard map' was met with objections closer to home.
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Aug 31, 2023
It is too soon to tell.
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Aug 31, 2023
A bevy of employment data this week will be capped off with Friday's jobs report.
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Aug 31, 2023
In the coming weeks, we will analyze several factors influencing labor productivity in the U.S.
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Aug 31, 2023
Our third-quarter high-frequency GDP estimate jumped to an annualized 4.9%.
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Aug 31, 2023
Despite the storm's intensity, its speed and path made it far less costly than it could have been.
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Aug 31, 2023
We look for the economy to have added 162,000 jobs, on net, in the latest month.
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Aug 30, 2023
U.S. GDP rose 2.1% in the second quarter, a touch slower than initially reported.
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Aug 29, 2023
The Beveridge curve and other new U.S. employment data flow the Fed's way.
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Aug 29, 2023
Evidence of a slowing job market reduces odds of an interest-rate hike by the Fed in September.
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Aug 29, 2023
The budgeting environment will grow more complex as the economy cools.
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Aug 29, 2023
The Fed is committed to its 2% inflation target, even though the path ahead for monetary policy is uncertain.
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Aug 28, 2023
The U.S. economic calendar heats up in the final week of August.
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Aug 28, 2023
Weakness in credit performance continued across the entire credit score strata.
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Aug 28, 2023
Demand is somewhat weak, which has kept prices from running higher.
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Aug 25, 2023
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reasserts the central bank's resolve to bring inflation down to target.
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Aug 25, 2023
We expect August employment growth to be the slowest since December 2020.
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Aug 25, 2023
The SAG-AFTRA work stoppage has us lowering our forecast for August job growth by 18,000.
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Aug 25, 2023
Cross-industry performance helps explain the rise in both new business formation and bankruptcies.
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Aug 25, 2023
Mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin's death highlighted Russia's internal political risks.
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Aug 24, 2023
Our third-quarter high-frequency GDP estimate for the U.S. has growth at a healthy 3.9% annualized.
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Aug 23, 2023
New-home sales increased in line with expectations in July.
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Aug 23, 2023
Our third-quarter high-frequency GDP estimate for the U.S. has growth at a healthy 4% annualized.
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Aug 23, 2023
The specter of a Chinese property market crisis looms larger.
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Aug 23, 2023
Employment growth from April 2022 to March 2023 is weaker than previously assumed.
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Aug 23, 2023
Student loan payments are set to resume and will pressure some borrowers, particularly younger individuals.
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Aug 22, 2023
The U.S. economy remains resilient but economic data on Tuesday confirm that some weakness exists.
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Aug 22, 2023
The financial system remains under extraordinary pressure, and the crisis may not be over.
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Aug 22, 2023
The weakening of the labor market is underway and will continue through the end of the year.
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Aug 21, 2023
The U.S. economic calendar was empty on Monday and will stay quiet this week.
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Aug 21, 2023
Among loan types, delinquencies on auto loans and consumer finance loans have increased most.
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Aug 21, 2023
Consumers are spending and firms are producing, suggesting that the economy remains on solid footing.
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Aug 18, 2023
A dive into the CPI to see if all items have inflated in price relative to 2019.
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Aug 18, 2023
U.S. economic data released Friday confirmed what we already knew about the labor market and service sector.
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Aug 18, 2023
We expect new-home sales to have ticked higher in July as lack of resale inventory pushes homebuyers to support demand for new construction.
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Aug 18, 2023
Javier Milei surprised pundits and markets by garnering the most votes in Argentina's presidential primary.
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Aug 18, 2023
A frozen existing-home market pushes buyers to the new-home market.
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