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Jul 13, 2020
For now, the market hasn't seen the same setbacks as during previous default climbs.
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Jul 13, 2020
Most of the key new data won't provide a clear picture of the current state of the economy.
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Jul 13, 2020
The key data include consumer prices, industrial production, retail sales, and housing starts and permits.
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Jul 13, 2020
Rising cases have led a number of states to either pause or roll back some of their reopenings.
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Jul 13, 2020
Requiring international students to take in-person U.S. classes could do short- and long-term damage.
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Jul 10, 2020
Because of oil and gas price deflation, energy is one of the riskiest sectors.
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Jul 10, 2020
Because of oil and gas price deflation, energy is one of the riskiest sectors.
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Jul 10, 2020
The U.S. and China are unlikely to make progress on a Phase Two trade deal any time soon.
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Jul 10, 2020
The rapid reopenings have reignited the virus.
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Jul 10, 2020
A dive into the details reveals signs of a more substantial and persistent slowdown in the housing market.
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Jul 10, 2020
Even where we can see glimpses of recovery, unemployment will continue to rise through the rest of the year.
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Jul 09, 2020
Social distancing shouldn't slow car and home sales like it has for indoor dining.
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Jul 09, 2020
Rising COVID-19 case counts weigh on the near-term employment outlook.
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Jul 09, 2020
Policy missteps in the U.S. take center stage, but structural factors still matter.
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Jul 08, 2020
The tech stock index led all markets with a gain of 1.44%.
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Jul 08, 2020
We've adjusted our baseline to include a greater COVID-19 case increase.
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Jul 08, 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic is generating imbalanced cost pressures.
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Jul 07, 2020
From March through May, it saw a 60.1% contraction.
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Jul 07, 2020
During the month, 6.5 million workers were hired as businesses began to recall workers.
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Jul 07, 2020
There is widespread support by the American people for another economic package that helps businesses and workers.
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Jul 07, 2020
Much of the June data came in before many states started seeing a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases.
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Jul 06, 2020
Indexes around the world soared higher led by the Shanghai composite.
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Jul 06, 2020
Jump in the ISM nonmanufacturing survey doesn't raise odds of a V-shape recovery.
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Jul 06, 2020
We look for a slight increase in the number of people filing for unemployment insurance benefits.
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Jul 02, 2020
We will return on Monday, July 6.
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Jul 02, 2020
The June jobs report was impressive, but uncertainty is mounting as COVID-19 case counts rise.
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Jul 02, 2020
The economy is beginning to turn a corner, but the amount of lost ground proves staggering.
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Jul 02, 2020
States change course after premature reopenings, but it may already be too late.
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Jul 02, 2020
Given the current shock, it is prudent for the Fed to restrict bank operations until clearer signs of economic recovery prevail.
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Jul 01, 2020
Investment-grade corporates now appear to be relatively more attractive than comparably dated and lower-yielding U.S. Treasury bonds.
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Jul 01, 2020
The U.S. central bank is not as close to adopting yield-curve control as we previously thought.
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Jul 01, 2020
We look for a 4.25 million increase in nonfarm employment and a 12.9% unemployment rate.
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Jun 30, 2020
Illinois tops states in the cost of insuring debt against possibility of default.
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Jun 30, 2020
U.S. house prices move higher despite COVID-19-fueled turbulence.
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Jun 30, 2020
It will take several years of persistent investment efforts to put global output back to potential.
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Jun 30, 2020
The primary risk to the oil market forecast is the path of the COVID-19 outbreak.
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Jun 29, 2020
Pending home sales surged 44.3% in May.
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Jun 29, 2020
Consensus forecasts infer that COVID-19 will cost the U.S. economy approximately $1.879 trillion in forgone nominal GDP.
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Jun 29, 2020
We expect an increase in vehicle sales from 12.2 million annualized units in May to 13 million in June.
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Jun 29, 2020
With green shoots emerging and the pandemic intensifying, the U.S. is nearing a critical juncture.
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Jun 26, 2020
Personal savings soared to $4.1 trillion annualized during March to May.
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Jun 26, 2020
New data on personal income and spending lifted our GDP tracking estimate for the second quarter.
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Jun 26, 2020
We have a better sense of the severity of the recession and the subsequent recovery.
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Jun 26, 2020
The Canadian economy will have likely contracted by near 40% in Q2 in annualized terms.
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Jun 26, 2020
COVID-19 infections are rising in the U.S.
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Jun 26, 2020
May consumer spending nudges our tracking estimate up, but GDP is still set to plunge.
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Jun 26, 2020
Africa's largest economy adds to its stimulus.
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Jun 25, 2020
The yield often declines more than a year after a recession.
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Jun 25, 2020
The yield often declines more than a year after a recession.
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Jun 25, 2020
Firms continue to lay off workers at a rapid pace even as the economy has turned a corner.
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Jun 25, 2020
Stimulus separates job losers from spending slashers.
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Jun 25, 2020
Growth has resumed, and the recession is likely technically over.
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Jun 25, 2020
Reopenings spurred surprisingly strong numbers, but seeded a June COVID-19 surge.
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Jun 25, 2020
We raised the odds of an oil-price spike, but the probability remains low.
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Jun 24, 2020
This type of recession would likely drive the yield to 0.25% to 0.50%.
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Jun 24, 2020
Additional stimulus is needed sooner, rather than later.
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Jun 24, 2020
The biggest question remains how much, if any, help is on the way.
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Jun 24, 2020
The recession of 2020 will go down in history for both its speed and magnitude.
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Jun 23, 2020
With an aging demographic, the U.S. will struggle to have GDP above 2%.
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Jun 23, 2020
U.S. new-home sales bounced in May, but revisions to April were unfavorable.
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Jun 23, 2020
Manufacturing optimism returned in full force.
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Jun 23, 2020
The COVID-19-fueled downturn will be remembered for its breadth and depth, not the brief duration.
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Jun 22, 2020
The Blue Chip consensus expects a convincing recover over the next 18 months.
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Jun 22, 2020
Sales should start rising again in June.
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Jun 22, 2020
U.S. states with more PPP loans have had less job loss, but other factors are at play.
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Jun 22, 2020
Stabilizing conditions provide welcome news after a disastrous April.
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Jun 22, 2020
Stabilizing conditions provide welcome news after a disastrous April.
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Jun 22, 2020
Nominal personal income likely dropped 8% in May after being boosted by fiscal stimulus in April.
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Jun 21, 2020
Overwhelming uncertainty regarding the virus is the principal reason the economy is unlikely to quickly kick back into high gear.
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Jun 19, 2020
Many newly offered high-yield bonds are refinancing outstanding loans.
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Jun 19, 2020
Nevada, Hawaii and Michigan had the highest unemployment rates in the U.S. in May.
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Jun 19, 2020
Our survey shows hard issues like childcare and concerns about COVID-19 could keep the U.S. labor market struggling for years.
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Jun 19, 2020
The labor market remains troubled, suggesting the initial bounce in the economy will fade.
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Jun 19, 2020
Surprising May numbers for U.S. come into focus and show limitations of aggressive reopening decisions.
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Jun 19, 2020
May retail sales gains were led by discretionary segments, but not apparel.
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Jun 19, 2020
Coronavirus cases are ticking up in more than a dozen states.
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Jun 19, 2020
The central bank is purchasing assets at a breakneck pace.
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Jun 19, 2020
Indonesia and China announce rate cuts this week.
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Jun 18, 2020
The number of U.S. high-yield net downgrades dropped from April's 214 to May's 90.
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Jun 18, 2020
While economic data signal modest improvement, the road ahead is long.
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Jun 18, 2020
Reopening state and local economies in the U.S. is a choppy process, and it comes at a cost.
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Jun 18, 2020
Fiscal and monetary policy have softened the blow, yet negative effects will linger through 2021.
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Jun 18, 2020
Defaults are not spiking with unemployment.
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Jun 18, 2020
The unknown course of COVID-19 remains the biggest threat to the business outlook.
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Jun 17, 2020
Permits were solid and point toward an increase in construction in June.
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Jun 17, 2020
This legislation would go a long way to ensure the nascent U.S. recovery remains intact and the economy returns to full employment more quickly.
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Jun 17, 2020
The economic crisis has broadly peaked but will take years to unwind.
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Jun 17, 2020
Hiring for temporary positions has been delayed but is likely to peak in August.
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Jun 16, 2020
May's sales were still down but by much less than April's contraction.
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Jun 16, 2020
Our high-frequency model now has second-quarter GDP tracking -39.7% at an annualized rate.
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Jun 16, 2020
Income equality and racial integration are linked to faster house price growth.
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Jun 16, 2020
Sales rose 17.7% in May but remain well below that seen prior to COVID-19.
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Jun 16, 2020
Interest rates will remain at rock-bottom for the foreseeable future.
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Jun 15, 2020
The 2020s may be home to record-low, decade-long averages for interest rates.
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Jun 15, 2020
Lawmakers should include more for SNAP in the next stimulus as it has a big multiplier.
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Jun 15, 2020
The U.S. economy continues to turn the corner on the COVID-19 recession.
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Jun 15, 2020
Additional support for SNAP could be needed.
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Jun 12, 2020
COVID-19 cases have been picking up globally and in the U.S. since late May.
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Jun 12, 2020
The reopening of many U.S. state economies has led to a gradual economic pickup.
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Jun 12, 2020
An accelerated reopening may seem appealing, but the provinces should keep an eye on their neighbors to the south.
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