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 NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 24, 2024

Economic Roundup: Awaiting Q1 GDP
Moody's Analytics expects U.S. real growth at an annualized rate of 2.5%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 24, 2024

U.S. Retail Revisions Lower Sales but Not Recent Growth
Retail remains under pressure from the rebound in service spending and the likelihood of reduced growth in employment and wage rates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 24, 2024

Final Thoughts Ahead of Q1 U.S. GDP
Moody's Analytics expects U.S. real growth at an annualized rate of 2.5%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 24, 2024

U.S. Presidential Election Model Update: Battleground Races Get Tighter
We provide monthly updates to our 2024 presidential election prediction to assess the impact of new economic data and changes in our U.S. national and state forecasts.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 24, 2024

U.S. State and Local Outlook: Temporary Funds, Permanent Cuts
Success in keeping expense growth under control will be vital for avoiding a funding cliff as revenue growth slows and federal aid dries up.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 23, 2024

Economic Roundup: U.S. New-Home Sales Holding Up in the Face of Challenges
A dearth of available housing supply has kept a floor under demand for new homes.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 22, 2024

Economic Roundup: Expect a High Note on Growth
Slated for release this week are first-quarter U.S. GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 22, 2024

U.S. Chartbook: Under Pressure
High interest rates continue to weigh on housing, while oil markets face geopolitical pressure.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 22, 2024

U.S. Credit Outlook: New Consumer Loans
Consumer credit gains in March were broad-based; measured on a year-ago basis, first mortgage lending gained 2.3%, auto balances moved 2.7% higher.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 22, 2024

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 160—Rockey on Real Estate
What are the chances of a commercial real estate doom loop?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 19, 2024

Economic Roundup: No Surprises to End the Week
The U.S. state employment report confirms that the labor market remains strong everywhere.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 19, 2024

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 19, 2024
Despite wild fluctuations in retail sales, the underlying trend is for modest growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 19, 2024

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Israel, Allies Thwart Iranian Attack; Israel Responds
Rising Middle Eastern tensions will likely unsettle economic and political landscapes.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 19, 2024

Canada Weekly: Leery Lenders Hold Their Breath
An upward inflection in delinquency rates and unemployment is sparking concern.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 19, 2024

Oil Market Appears to Dodge a Bullet
Israel has retaliated against Iran, but early indications are that the response was not severe.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 18, 2024

Economic Roundup: Mixed Message on U.S. Manufacturing
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey provides some upside, but the outlook remains unclear.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 18, 2024

Credit Market View: Corporate Debt Quality Improves
Through the first quarter, corporate bond issuance picked up significantly compared with last year, and ratings of the majority of the existing bonds started to improve.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 17, 2024

Economic Roundup: Oil Prices Head Lower
Structural factors are keeping prices from running away, but the situation is precarious.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 17, 2024

U.S. Household Financial Obligations Inch Higher
Burdens remain historically low.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 17, 2024

Hoping to Avoid Escalation in the Middle East
Energy prices will rise quickly if Israel responds aggressively to Iran's recent attack.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 17, 2024

U.S. Chartbook: All About Inflation
Another hotter-than-expected CPI report signals caution.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 17, 2024

U.S. Employment Outlook: A No-Landing Job Market
The brief slowdown in job creation at the end of 2023 appears now to be an aberration rather than the beginning of a trend.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 16, 2024

Economic Roundup: Starts Fall in March
U.S. housing starts took a sharper than expected decline in March.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 16, 2024

Oil Price Outlook: Hanging by a Thread
Will Israel choose escalation or de-escalation?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 16, 2024

Paying a Premium
Despite declining vehicle prices, U.S. car insurance keeps rising.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 16, 2024

Global Outlook: World-Weary and Wide Awake
Geopolitical risks are many, but the middling performance of the global economy in the opening months of the year owes to pedestrian factors.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 15, 2024

Economic Roundup: Consumers Remain Strong
U.S. retail sales surprised to the upside, but several risks remain.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 15, 2024

U.S. Tax Day
April 15 marks the official close of tax season, but the story is not over.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 15, 2024

Oil Markets on Edge Amid Growing Middle East Tensions
The initial muted response by oil prices to Iran's attack on Israel could be short-lived.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 15, 2024

U.S. Outlook: The Inflation Story
Inflation remains above the Fed's target, forestalling the rate cuts necessary to conclude the economy has soft-landed; but given positive developments on the economy's supply side, there is reason to be optimistic that inflation is headed to target, the Fed will soon ease, and the expansion will continue.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 15, 2024

Used-Vehicle Price Declines Fail to Come to Complete Stop
Real prices on the U.S. secondary market remain 30% higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 12, 2024

Economic Roundup: Consumer Sentiment Holding Up, for Now
It's too early to tell whether another unfavorable inflation print will weigh on consumers.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 12, 2024

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 12, 2024
A wealth of housing market data are also due next week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 12, 2024

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: FISA Gets a Hearing
The spy measure has drawn a significant amount of controversy regarding privacy rights in general, though former President Trump has his own bone to pick with the law.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 12, 2024

Canada Weekly: Survey Says
Two surveys reveal that Canadians are feeling more optimistic.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 12, 2024

U.S. Road to Recession: It's Complicated
Inflation's graceful moderation in 2023 appears to have stalled with the turning of the calendar.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 12, 2024

U.S. Risk Matrix: Attempting a Thaw in Sino-U.S. Relations
Tensions are at risk of escalating in the Middle East.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 12, 2024

Immigration Has Kept the Labor Market Rolling
New estimates from the Congressional Budget Office paint a vastly different picture of recent immigration.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 11, 2024

Economic Roundup: ECB Holds Steady
Inflation remains above target and central banks are hesitant to lower interest rates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 11, 2024

Assessing the Impact of Low Survey Response Rates on the Monthly Jobs Report
Fewer businesses are responding to employment surveys, raising questions about the accuracy of estimates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 10, 2024

Economic Roundup: June...We've Changed Our Tune
March's hot CPI print will delay the Fed's plans to begin loosening policy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 09, 2024

Economic Roundup: Main Street Blues
Despite a strong economy and robust job growth, U.S. small businesses face challenges.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 09, 2024

U.S. Household Debt Tracker: Counting Risks
The delinquency rate on auto loans jumped 14 basis points in March to its highest since April 2010.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 09, 2024

U.S. Household Debt Tracker: Holding Pattern
The delinquency rate on auto loans jumped 14 basis points in March to its highest since April 2010.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 09, 2024

Final Thoughts Ahead of March's CPI
Our below-consensus forecast calls for 0.2% growth in the core rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 09, 2024

Inflation on Main Street
More small businesses raised prices in March, adding to inflation pressures.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 09, 2024

U.S. Chartbook: A Booming Labor Market
March's job report came in hot, but minimal monetary policy implications meant investors weren't too rattled.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 08, 2024

Economic Roundup: Off to a Slow Start
After a quiet start, this week will see a number of important inflation indicators.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 05, 2024

Economic Roundup: Jobs, Jobs and More Jobs
The labor market continues to deliver a string of impressive performances.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 05, 2024

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 5, 2024
Projected growth in the March CPI would bring the annual rate up from 3.2% in February to 3.4%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 05, 2024

The Tax Gap
Each year, around 20% of individual income taxes due are left unpaid.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 05, 2024

Entrepreneurship on the Rise in the U.S. for Immigrants
Increased immigration has been a net positive for U.S. economic growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 05, 2024

Canada Weekly: A Floor and a Ceiling
The housing market continues to cool.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 05, 2024

U.S. Jobs Report Cont'd: Another Big Jobs Number
The first quarter of 2024 saw a booming 829,000 jobs added in the U.S.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 05, 2024

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Biden Shifts on Israel
The White House did not specify how support for Israel would change if its demands were not met.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 04, 2024

U.S. Presidential Election Model Update: Biden Projected to Win Keystone State
We provide monthly updates to our 2024 presidential election prediction to assess the impact of new economic data and changes in our U.S. national and state forecasts.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 04, 2024

Economic Roundup: All Eyes on Jobs Friday
The U.S. economy likely gained 220,000 jobs in March.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 04, 2024

Final Thoughts Ahead of March U.S. Employment
We look for the economy to have added 220,000 jobs on net in March.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 03, 2024

Economic Roundup: Vehicle Sales Solid in Q1
Improving affordability is helping U.S. auto sales.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 03, 2024

U.S. Inflation Tracker: Progress Slows
Like the Federal Reserve, we mostly looked through the hot CPI reports at the start of 2024 and expect policy will soon begin to be eased.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 02, 2024

Economic Roundup: No Jolt to the Labor Market
New data on job openings and labor turnover did little to alter the outlook.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 01, 2024

Economic Roundup: In an Employment State of Mind
The tone has been set for the week with an upside surprise to the ISM manufacturing index; the focus now turns to the labor market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 01, 2024

U.S. Chartbook: Goods Prices Hop
The Fed's favorite basket got a little more expensive in February, but still had some sweet surprises.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 01, 2024

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 157—Bridge Out
What are the economic consequences of the deadly collapse of an important river crossing in Baltimore?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 01, 2024

The Tax Man Cometh
The U.S. tax season is more than halfway over and there are a number of important dynamics to watch.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 29, 2024

Economic Roundup: Wrapping Up With a Trifecta
Three key U.S. economic reports were released Friday, closing out a busy week for data.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 29, 2024

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 29, 2024
The U.S. economic calendar will keep busy following the Easter weekend as a flurry of jobs and manufacturing data are released.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 29, 2024

Canada Weekly: The Wages of Industry
The evolving mix of industry wage growth signals deceleration ahead.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 29, 2024

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Consequences of the Bridge Collapse
An extended disruption at the Port of Baltimore could mean a supply shock that extends to Asia and potentially reverberates back into global supply chains.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 28, 2024

Economic Roundup: Preparing for the Fed's Preferred Measure
We expect that the core PCE deflator rose 0.3% again in February.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 28, 2024

U.S. Banking Conditions Tracker: One Year Later
The banking system is on solid ground but a sense of fragility remains.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 28, 2024

Preparing for the Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure
We expect that the core PCE deflator rose 0.3% again in February.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 27, 2024

Economic Roundup: Economic Implications of Baltimore Bridge Collapse
The tragedy adds risk but does not fundamentally alter the U.S. or Maryland outlooks.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 27, 2024

The Economic Ramifications of the Baltimore Bridge Collapse
Tuesday morning's tragedy creates risk but does not fundamentally alter the U.S. or Maryland outlooks.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 27, 2024

Global Energy Outlook: Beyond Recession Fears
If OPEC decides not to wind down its production cuts, growth in global oil demand will have to be met by non-OPEC producers and existing inventories.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 26, 2024

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumers Still Watching and Waiting
Despite a strong labor market, consumer confidence remains in an extended holding pattern.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 26, 2024

U.S. Household Income Growth to Moderate
Wild swings and atypical drivers have ended.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 26, 2024

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 156—Inequality, Interest Rates, Immigration…
How do we slice the economic pie?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 26, 2024

U.S. Employment Outlook: On a Roll, Mostly
We expect the unemployment rate to edge up to 4% by the end of the year before peaking just above that in mid-2025.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 25, 2024

Economic Roundup: New-Home Sales Move Sideways
Sales fell slightly, but they remain on the high end of the pre-pandemic range.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 25, 2024

U.S. Federal Government Chooses to Keep the Lights On
Congress and the White House signed a $1.2 trillion bill to fund the rest of the government through September.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 25, 2024

U.S. Economic Outlook: Wealth Effects
The runup in stock prices and housing values since the pandemic is eye-popping, reflecting the strong economy and helping to power it. But prices may be too pricey and vulnerable to a significant correction. Asset prices would quickly swing from providing a tailwind to growth to potentially undermining it.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 25, 2024

U.S. Credit Outlook: Lower Rates on the Horizon
We expect performance to worsen, though much of the deterioration has already played out.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 22, 2024

Economic Roundup: A Quiet Finish
The U.S. economic calendar closed with a whisper after the FOMC drew most of this week's attention.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 22, 2024

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 22, 2024
Fed policymakers are more upbeat about a soft landing than they were in December.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 22, 2024

Are Stocks More Sensitive Now?
Markets have been more reactive to certain economic releases than in prior periods.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 22, 2024

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Immigration, Elections and Trade
Tensions between the Biden administration and Texas mount as the border crisis intensifies.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 22, 2024

Canada Weekly: How We Gonna Pay Last Year's Rent?
Despite a cooler-than-expected CPI report, rent growth is still piping hot.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 21, 2024

Economic Roundup: Looking Through It
Wednesday's FOMC projections indicate the Fed considers recent CPI data more noise than signal.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 21, 2024

U.S. Election Tracker: Headwinds and Tailwinds
President Biden has the upper hand heading into the election.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 21, 2024

Snakes and Property Ladders: The Global Ramifications of a China Real Estate Crisis
We consider two adverse scenarios for China's property market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 21, 2024

Global Outlook: Taking Stock
The pandemic and its aftershocks have left scars, but damage has been uneven across the globe.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 20, 2024

Economic Roundup: No Surprises
As expected, the FOMC opted to leave the fed funds rate range unchanged at its March meeting.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 20, 2024

U.S. Chips Act Awards Mount
The White House has announced the biggest award yet, approximately $8.5 billion in direct subsidies to Intel along with up to $11 billion in loans.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 20, 2024

Credit Market View: Monetary Policy Assumptions Become More Restrictive
In our March baseline, rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2024 are slightly delayed, now beginning in June and with three instead of four by year's end.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 19, 2024

Economic Roundup: U.S. Homebuilding Bounces Back
After a downbeat January, building activity roared back to life in February.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 19, 2024

U.S. Chartbook: Coming In Hot
Last week brought a higher-than-anticipated inflation report, but is it cause for concern?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 19, 2024

U.S. Consumer Inflation Trends Are a Mixed Bag
Housing services aren't the only thing boosting inflation, nor is inflation uniformly higher than pre-pandemic norms.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 18, 2024

Economic Roundup: Staring Down the Shutdown Barrel
U.S. lawmakers have yet to reach an agreement on the second batch of appropriations, while the Fed will likely hold interest rates steady.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Mar 18, 2024

Watch What Firms Do, Not What They Say
The relationship between hiring intentions and U.S. monthly job gains has broken down since the pandemic.

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