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 NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

Capital Spending Tops Earlier Expectations
Core capital goods orders rose for a fourth straight month in August.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

Economic Roundup: Some Parts of Business Investment Doing Better Than Others
Core capital goods shipments and orders boost our Q3 GDP tracking estimate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Not an Encouraging Trend
The good news is that there hasn't been a significant weakening, even as the fiscal stimulus has run its course.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

Canada Weekly: How Bad Is Unemployment?
Permanent job losses are taking the place of temporary layoffs.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Restrictions Returning to Europe
COVID-19 is making a comeback.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: New Jobs Support Coming to U.K.
The British government announced a much-awaited extension to the furlough scheme.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

Bond Issuance Boom Led by Refinancings That Boost Liquidity
In this low-rate environment, companies opt to lengthen maturities at rock-bottom costs.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. New-Home Sales Jump to Highest Since 2006
Low mortgage rates and pent-up demand continue to push sales higher.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

Speed Trap Ahead for Autos
Recent growth in U.S. used-vehicle prices and new vehicle sales is likely to slow in the coming months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

Fiscal Risks for Rural America
Rural economies will suffer most if Congress fails to support state and local governments.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

State Economies Warmed in Summer but Never Caught Fire
U.S. regional labor market data for August showed progress but a long road back to normalcy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

State Economies Warmed This Summer
U.S. regional labor market data for August showed progress but a long road back to normalcy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

The Macroeconomic Consequences: Trump vs. Biden
The U.S. presidential candidates could not have more different governing approaches and policies, especially when it comes to economic policy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 23, 2020

Scary Markets Might Frighten Congress Into Boosting Fiscal Stimulus
The passage of a fiscal stimulus package may require the spur of another 7% drop.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 23, 2020

Economic Roundup: Flash PMIs Mixed in U.S., Rough in Europe
The economic calendar heats up on Thursday.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 23, 2020

U.S. Employment Outlook: Attenuated Recovery
The country will not return to its pre-COVID-19 employment level until the end of 2023.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 22, 2020

Housing, Manufacturing Question Claims of Major Deceleration
The Richmond district has risen to 19.7 points after a bottom of -65.6 points in April.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 22, 2020

Economic Roundup: Timber!
Sharp decline in lumber prices will ease cost pressures homebuilders were grappling with.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 22, 2020

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Fiscal Follies Pose Significant Threat
With each passing week the potential for another, but much needed, U.S. fiscal stimulus has dimmed.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 22, 2020

U.S. Financial Outlook: Riding High on Equities
Stock market values should gradually decline in the near term, followed by a gradual recovery.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 22, 2020

Corporate Debt Growth Slows From Second Quarter's Unsustainable Advance
In the not too distant future, a reduction in the outstandings of corporate debt is likely.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 21, 2020

Economic Roundup: When You Come to a Fork in the Road, You Take It
Odds of fiscal stimulus ahead of the election are fading.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 21, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Recovery Cooling With the Weather
Data released last week offer no clear evidence that the economy's recovery accelerated.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 21, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 21, 2020
We expect another gain in existing-home sales.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 21, 2020

U.S. State and Local Government Shortfall Update
The economic outlook has marginally improved.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

M2's Liftoff Reflects Unsustainable Accumulation of Cash
The current cash assets of businesses and households exceed what they will hold long term.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed Searching for New North Star
The Fed is deemphasizing the unemployment rate gap, but maybe it should turn to prime EPOP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Reason for Optimism
The labor market continues to heal from the crisis.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

Canada Weekly: New Motor Vehicle Sales Gain Ground
The industry is making a recovery after being rocked by the pandemic.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

Fed Still Needs a Guiding Star for the Labor Market
Policymakers should focus on the prime-age employment to population ratio, not unemployment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Brexit Talks Remain at Cliff's Edge
U.K. prime minister took a few steps back, but the lines he has drawn will be quickly crossed.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Fed, ECB Remain Dovish
The two central banks will use less direct measures to support economies.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

Americans Clocked Out and Dined Out in Early September
Regional labor markets are exhibiting fatigue, but restaurants show signs of life.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

CECL 2020Q3: Moody's Analytics Economic Scenarios
We review changes to our economic scenarios that could impact loss allowance estimates for Q3.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 17, 2020

High-Yield Refinancings Transcend Fast-Rising Defaults
Credit quality has stabilized as debt has moved to lower interest rates and longer maturities.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 17, 2020

Economic Roundup: Layoffs Decline but Remain Alarmingly High
With people exhausting their benefits, continuing claims dropped sharply last week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 17, 2020

U.S. Holiday Sales Should Outperform the Economic Environment
The risks remain very high.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

Global Outlook: A Divergent Recovery
China's V-shape rebound sets itself apart, but downside risks predominate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

Like Late 1998, Interest Rates May Again Be Unsustainably Low
The Fed was accommodative then despite Q3 and Q4 GDP increases of 5.1% and 6.6%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed's New Forward Guidance Launches Without a Hitch
There are still some details to be ironed out but the guidance didn't rattle markets.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

Food for Thought on U.S. Retail Sales
Restaurant spending helped the numbers in August.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

U.S. Inflation Accelerates
Prices increased across a wide range of product categories in September.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

U.S. Household Income Was Strong in 2019
Poverty fell as median household income jumped; health coverage expanded.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

High-Tech Manufacturing Output at Record High
The high-tech component of manufacturing advanced by 1.1% monthly in August to a record high.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

Economic Roundup: Homing In On Q3 U.S. GDP
Industrial production and import prices nudge our tracking estimate higher but retail sales could disappoint.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

Costs Mount as Fires Rage in the U.S. West
The 2020 fire season will rank as one of the most destructive in recorded history.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

Q3 Tracking Inches Higher
After industrial production and import prices, our model puts U.S. GDP at 26.4% annualized in the current quarter.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Losing Traction
The recovery has slowed as federal stimulus has waned and COVID-19 cases remain high.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

U.S. Federal Outlook: Presidential Election Update
Moody's Analytics predicts Biden will narrowly win the Electoral College.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

High-Yield Issuance Booms Alongside Tighter Business Loan Standards
Loan standards are tighter than they've been since the end of 2008.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

Economic Roundup: A Busy Week Ahead
This week is packed with a Fed meeting, Congress returning to session, and the release of key data.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 14, 2020
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits likely increased in the week ended September 12.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

This Week in the COVID Crisis
The economy is operating 20% below where it was prior to when the pandemic struck in March.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

FOMC Preview: No Rush
New forward guidance is unlikely this week; the Fed will wait until November.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

How Far from Normal? Moody's Analytics & CNN Business on the U.S. Economic Recovery: Q&A
We answer additional questions submitted in response to our recent webinar.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 11, 2020

Economic Roundup: August CPI Eases Earlier Deflationary Concerns
After three straight increases in core CPI, deflation seems less of a threat than in the spring.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 11, 2020

Canada Weekly: Where To?
Looking at how Canadians are moving around the country can provide insights on the recovery.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 11, 2020

U.S. Jobless Claims Show Recovery Has a Long Way to Go
Initial and continuing claims in regular programs have improved; the bigger picture is not so rosy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 11, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Brexit Talks Veer Off Course
The week's events will hinder future negotiations.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 11, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Outside of Asia, Momentum Fades
Fiscal and monetary support is key to avoiding a retrenchment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 10, 2020

Corporate Bond Issuance Soars as Equities Sink
The issuance of US$-denominated corporate bonds has flourished throughout much of 2020.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 10, 2020

Economic Roundup: Behind the September Baseline Forecast
Stronger GDP growth and a lower unemployment rate, but we are still counting on more stimulus.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 10, 2020

Real-Time Data Add to Picture of State Labor Markets
Google Mobility, Homebase and U.S. jobless claims help meet the need for timely regional data.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 10, 2020

Last Year Was Good for U.S. Consumers
The Consumer Expenditure Survey shows health in income growth and mostly conservative spending.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 09, 2020

Election-Year Worries Subside, Stocks Recover
The market value of U.S. common stock partly recovered with a 2.01% increase.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 09, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Market Open for Business, but Challenges Remain
U.S. job openings jumped in July to the highest level since February.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 08, 2020

Election-Year Risks Now Weigh on Equities
The market value of U.S. common stock fell 7.1%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 08, 2020

Economic Roundup: Mixed Trends for U.S. Small Businesses
U.S. small business conditions point to weak investment and wage growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 08, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Can't Find the Accelerator
Employment data are improving, but the recovery is stalled amid COVID-19 infections.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 08, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 8, 2020
We continue to expect employment to be down by about 10 million jobs from its pre-pandemic peak at year's end.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 04, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Lawmakers Still Need to Act
Failure to pass stimulus now is a policy error.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 04, 2020

Canada Weekly: Working Papers
Employment insurance is changing, and three programs are being introduced.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 04, 2020

Economic Roundup: Convalescent U.S. Job Market Still Has Ways to Go
The U.S. unemployment rate fell more than expected to 8.4%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 04, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Escalating Tensions Could Harm EU-Turkey Cooperation
EU states agreed to impose sanctions if Ankara refuses to withdraw from the Eastern Mediterranean.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 04, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: France Spends Big as COVID Makes Comeback
France will add €100 billion to its budget in the next two years.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Tax Worries May Have Stoked Equity Market's Dive
The market value of U.S. common stock plummeted by 3.56%, or $1.3 trillion.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Market Growth Ongoing, But Slowing
We look for a 1.1 million increase in nonfarm employment and a 9.9% unemployment rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Final Thoughts Ahead of August Employment
A disappointment could light a fire under lawmakers in Washington to pass stimulus.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Can U.S. College Towns Make the Grade?
COVID-19 invades campuses, and risks rise for university-dependent economies.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Canada Outlook: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
A brutal second quarter gives way to an initially strong rebound, but the momentum quickly fades.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Corporate Bonds' Partial Recovery Lags Equities' New Zenith
In part, corporate credit reflects some equity market subindexes remaining well under record highs.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 02, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Hiring Hits Late-Summer Lull
The ADP National Employment Report points toward weak August hiring.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 02, 2020

U.S. Factory Orders Shave a Bit Off Q3 GDP Estimate
The decline in inventories is larger than previously thought.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 01, 2020

U.S. Road to Recovery: Labor Reallocation
Permanent layoffs in virus-sensitive industries have rapidly increased.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 01, 2020

ISM Survey, Base Metal Prices Signal Manufacturing Upturn
The Moody's Analytics industrial metals price index rose for a fourth consecutive month.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 01, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Factory Production on the Upswing
U.S. manufacturing continues to recover from the recession, and the improvement is broadening.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 01, 2020

Permanent Layoffs Sting Some Industries Harder Than Others
The COVID-19 crisis will do lasting damage to the U.S. labor market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 31, 2020

Persistently Low Fed Funds Rate Favors Lower Default Rate
After the seven years of a low rate following 2009, the default rate dropped from 14.7% to 1.6%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 31, 2020

Economic Roundup: Slow Start to Hectic Week
Slew of key U.S. economic data will be released and could provide color on recession risks.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 31, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Where Do We Go From Here?
The economic recovery hinges on the prevalence of the virus and the next fiscal stimulus package.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 31, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 31, 2020
The ADP National Employment Report will help to gauge private employment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 31, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: School's in Session, for Now
Our high-frequency GDP model now has third-quarter GDP tracking 29.2% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 30, 2020

This Week in the COVID-19 Crisis
While the Trump administration and Congress dither, the Fed continues to act.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 28, 2020

Economic Roundup: A Hurricane in the Political Calculus
U.S. deflation fears eased, but it will take several months for inflation to approach the Fed's 2% target.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 28, 2020

Q3 U.S. GDP Tracking Estimate Gets a Boost
July consumer spending has GDP tracking 29.2% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 28, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Japan's Abe Unexpectedly Resigns
The pandemic rages on as COVID-19 infections are rising in many parts of the world.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 28, 2020

Laura Raises Odds of Another Stimulus Bill
The 2020 hurricane season threatens the longevity the president's Lost Wages Assistance program.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 28, 2020

Laura's Economic Impact Should Prove Modest
Thursday's U.S. Gulf Coast storm was intense, but its financial toll could have been far worse.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 27, 2020

Updated Fed Strategy Lifts Inflation Expectations a Bit
Powell stated that the trade-off between price inflation and unemployment has improved considerably.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 27, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Jobless Claims Signal Steady Improvement
The labor market is set to add more jobs in August as continuing claims fell for 4th straight week.

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