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 NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 03, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Drops More Than Anticipated
It is not a recession but the details are troubling.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 03, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Turbulent Times
A natural disaster hits, inflation broadens, and financial market conditions tighten.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 30, 2022

Economic Roundup: Point Break
Red flags are emerging in the corporate bond market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 30, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: EU-Russian Tensions Rise
A possible pipeline sabotage and proposed sanctions strain relationship.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 30, 2022

Canada Weekly: The Loonie, the Sterling and the Buck
Foreign exchange markets are in disarray but some currencies are faring better than others.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 30, 2022

The Pandemic and the Unbanked
Survey results due soon should shed light on how U.S. household banking habits and access to financial services may have changed during COVID-19.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 29, 2022

Economic Roundup: Annual GDP Revisions Suggest Fed Has More Work to Do
Stronger growth and higher inflation put the Fed in a more difficult situation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 29, 2022

Capital Market View: Spreads On the Move
Spreads widen as financial markets remain tumultuous.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 29, 2022

Initial Estimates for the Cost of Hurricane Ian
The storm is on track to rank among the more costly natural disasters of recent years.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 29, 2022

U.S. Consumer Debt Payments Rise Rapidly
Rising interest rates and inflation are the big drivers.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 29, 2022

Stress-Testing States: Looking Toward the Next Recession
Two years of rapid, stimulus-fueled growth are quickly coming to a close.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 28, 2022

Economic Roundup: Emergencies in the U.K. and Florida
BoE intervenes in the bond market and Hurricane Ian makes landfall in Florida.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 28, 2022

Q3 U.S. GDP Tracking Estimate Nudged Higher
GDP is looking a little better, and annual revisions will be released on Thursday.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 28, 2022

U.S. Housing Feels Pain of Higher Rates
Pending home sales dropped in August, and more decline is to come.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 27, 2022

Economic Roundup: Opportunistic U.S. Homebuying
New-home sales jumped in August as rates fell.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 27, 2022

U.S. B2B Tracker: Fed Tightening Will Constrict Spending
Higher borrowing costs mean investments in capacity enhancements like new plants and equipment are pricier.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 27, 2022

Emerging Market View: Living on a Prayer
The forecast calls for a broad-based slowdown.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 27, 2022

U.S. Employment Outlook: Tempering Expectations
Tight labor supply and stubbornly high inflation have left businesses and consumers on edge about the future course of the economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 26, 2022

Economic Roundup: What We've Got Here Is a Failure to Reassure
The Bank of England's statement fails to settle foreign exchange or bond markets.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 26, 2022

Capital Market View: Reverse Currency War
The U.S. dollar is on a tear and shows no signs of stopping.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 26, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 26, 2022
Reading between the lines, the Fed could stomach a recession to help tame inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 26, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Fed Promises Pain
Last week's FOMC meeting demonstrated just how serious the central bank is about reining in inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 26, 2022

U.S. Credit Outlook: Stable for Now
The Fed's impact on rate-sensitive consumer credit products will be significant.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 26, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 77—Careening Markets
Recession fears surge as the message sinks in from Jerome Powell and the Fed hawks.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 23, 2022

Economic Roundup: A Bloodbath
Central banks want financial market conditions to tighten and they're getting it.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 23, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Russia Plans to Increase Invasion
The EU looks to sever energy ties to Russia.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 23, 2022

Canada Weekly: Business-Cycle Brinksmanship
Recession odds are rising as the Bank of Canada maintains its aggressive push to whip inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 23, 2022

Capital Market View: Asset Prices in Stagflation
Most asset classes had weak returns in the stagflationary environment from 1965 to 1984.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 23, 2022

Sahm Rule Raises a Yellow Flag in Fed's 'Dot Plot'
U.S. central bank policymakers' median projection for the unemployment rate now implies that a recession is unavoidable, based on a crucial indicator.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 22, 2022

Economic Roundup: Claims Buck What Fed Wants
The Fed wants the labor market to cool off but new filings suggest it is still hot.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 22, 2022

U.S. Consumers' Inflation Expectations High but Falling
Uncertainty remains correctly high.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 22, 2022

Line in the Sand for U.S. Initial Claims
New filings at 285,000 are consistent with no monthly job growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 22, 2022

Webinar Replay: Assessing the Specter of Stagflation
The risks of stagflation are higher in the U.K. and Europe than in the U.S.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 21, 2022

Economic Roundup: The Pain Hurts
The Fed is going to inflict more pain on the economy to curb inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 21, 2022

Global Outlook: Economy on Edge
Record-high inflation and a more aggressive monetary policy response dampen sentiment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 21, 2022

Global Outlook: Global Economy on Edge
Record-high inflation and a more aggressive monetary policy response dampen sentiment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 21, 2022

Economic Fallout From Hurricane Fiona in Puerto Rico
The island's resiliency, at least in the economic statistics, masks the high human toll of hurricanes.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 20, 2022

Economic Roundup: Housing Fluke
The improvement in U.S. starts isn't the new norm.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 20, 2022

U.S. Holiday Sales Will Feel Weak
Retail growth will mostly come from outside traditional segments.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 20, 2022

When the U.S. Economy Is Vulnerable, Watch the Small Things
Consumer spending doesn't falter first; watch housing and business equipment spending.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 20, 2022

Capital Market View: Learning From the 1970s
Stocks went nowhere for a decade while yields rose during stagflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 20, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Not Good Enough
Higher-than-expected CPI inflation gives the Fed cover for a 75-basis point rate hike.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 20, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 76—Remote Work and Rising Prices
This week, the podcast focuses on the U.S. labor market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 19, 2022

Economic Roundup: Higher Rates Cut Into U.S. Builder Confidence
This is the longest streak of declines since the inception of the data in 1985.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 19, 2022

This Week in the Economy
When good news is bad news.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 19, 2022

Capital Market View: FOMC to Hike Aggressively, Signal Higher for Longer
We look for a 75-basis point hike and for the dot plot to show a higher terminal rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2022

Economic Roundup: Lower Gasoline Prices, Higher U.S. Consumer Confidence
While confidence edged higher, it still remains low.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2022

U.S. Risk Matrix: A Narrow Path to the Target
The Federal Reserve has the difficult task of trying to tame inflation without pushing the economy into a recession.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2022

Canada Weekly: Messed Mixages
We evaluate some upside and downside risks of Trudeau's recent cost-of-living support package.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: EU Tries to Ease Energy-Price Pain
The bloc plans to tax energy companies to subsidise sky-high prices.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2022

U.S. CPI by Demographics Update: Strength in the Core
As gasoline prices fall, the focus shifts to inflation components like shelter that make up a large share of the core consumer price index.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 16, 2022

U.S. Supply-Chain Stress Index Update
Early indications from component data suggest further improvement is en route.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 15, 2022

Economic Roundup: Here We Go Again?
Thursday's data cut Q3 tracking from 1.7% to 1.1% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 15, 2022

Capital Market View: Spreads Continue to Bounce Around
A little issuance rush ahead of Fed meeting.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 15, 2022

Energy Price Swings Hurt U.S. Consumers, but Not Like Times Past
Lower-income households suffer more.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2022

Economic Roundup: The Economic Costs of a Railroad Strike
It won't take long for this to turn into a macroeconomic event.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2022

Capital Market View: Previewing Potential Changes to Our Fed Call
A new rate path implies weaker GDP growth and higher unemployment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2022

Not Working on the Railroad
A U.S. rail worker strike of several weeks would have significant economic and inflation costs.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2022

Student Loan Plan Makes a Splash, but Macroeconomic Impact Is Small
The U.S. president's plan will have only a marginal effect on growth and inflation in 2023.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2022

Student Loan Plan Makes a Splash, but Macroeconomic Ripple Is Small
The U.S. president's plan will have only a marginal effect on growth and inflation in 2023.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 14, 2022

Inflation Prevented Gains in U.S. Household Income in 2021
The poverty rate held nearly steady.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 13, 2022

Economic Roundup: Coming In (Too) Hot
August's CPI print all but ensures a 75-basis point increase at the Fed's FOMC meeting next week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 12, 2022

Economic Roundup: Global Businesses Feeling a Little Better
There is still a chance that the global economy avoids a recession.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 12, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 12, 2022
Odds rise for a 75-basis point rate hike.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 12, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 75—The Policy Debate
Jobless claims are a testament to the strength of the labor market, and the Fed won't like it.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 12, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Still Holding up
Despite headwinds the economy is showing continued strength.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 09, 2022

Economic Roundup: Blowing in the Wind
The Fed is sending a not-so-subtle message about its plans.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 09, 2022

Canada Weekly: Housing Market Correction or Crash?
A shake-up is in store for the housing market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 09, 2022

U.S. Road to Recession: Still Vulnerable
August employment doesn't settle the debate over whether the Fed will hike by 50 or 75 basis points this month.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 09, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: China, Russia to Meet
Presidents Xi and Putin will discuss continued partnership.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 09, 2022

U.S. Consumer Spending Moves Toward Normal Patterns
Survey data for 2021 showed an incomplete return to pre-pandemic habits.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 08, 2022

U.S. Inflation Tracker: Far From a Fed Victory
July's CPI and PCE deflator prints, like June's, benefited from the comedown in energy prices.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 08, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Initial Claims Decline; ECB Gets Aggressive
Unemployment numbers ease concern about U.S. economy while the ECB sees 75 as the new 25.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 08, 2022

U.S. Car Prices Should Be a Drag on CPI in August
There are more signs that used-car prices are moving in the right direction.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 08, 2022

Capital Market View: U.S. Economic Data Coming In Better Than Expected
This could give the Fed a window to hike by 75 basis points later this month.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 07, 2022

Economic Roundup: How the U.S. Baseline Forecast Changed Between August and September
Among the notable changes is monetary policy as the Fed is front-loading rate hikes.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 07, 2022

Capital Market View: September Seasonals in U.S. Bond Market
The 10-year Treasury yield has risen in each of the last five Septembers and seven of the past 10.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 06, 2022

Economic Roundup: Shift in U.S. Consumer Spending Helps ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey
It unexpectedly edged higher in August, pushing against recession concerns.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 06, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: A Step in the Right Direction
The Fed got what it wanted in the August jobs report, but further cooling is needed to quell wages and prices.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 06, 2022

U.S. GDP vs GDI: The Truth In-Between
Compensation of employees is deviating from the labor income proxy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 06, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 6, 2022
The nominal trade deficit likely narrowed in July.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 06, 2022

Capital Market View: The Rush Is On
U.S. companies are tapping the corporate bond market before rates rise again.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 06, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 74—Jobs and Jogging
Odds are that August U.S. job growth was stronger than the latest report indicates, and we explain why.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 02, 2022

Happy Holiday
Our U.S. offices will be closed Monday for Labor Day.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 02, 2022

Economic Roundup: This August Was Different
August normally disappoints, but job growth came in stronger this time.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 02, 2022

U.S. Jobs Report Cont'd: A Welcome Cooldown
August's report, caveats and quirks aside, landed in the Goldilocks zone.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 02, 2022

Canada Outlook: Policymakers or Breakers?
The sooner the Bank of Canada can stop tightening, the better the odds of avoiding recession.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 01, 2022

Economic Roundup: Assessment of U.S. Economy Depends on What You Are Viewing
ISM and initial claims suggest the economy is fine while GDP doesn't.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 01, 2022

Capital Market View: With Little Issuance, High-Yield Spreads Widen
There has been no high-yield issuance recently.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 01, 2022

Final Thoughts Ahead of U.S. Employment
Did the August effect strike again?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Sep 01, 2022

U.S. B2B Tracker: Spending Decelerates
Businesses appear to have had surprising success passing through cost increases to consumers.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 31, 2022

Economic Roundup: Euro Zone Inflation Accelerates
Unfortunately, inflation on the Continent is unlikely to have peaked.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 31, 2022

Capital Market View: Rising Rates Won't Bring Golden Age of Banking
Deposit rates have only slowly responded to the rising fed funds rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 31, 2022

Emerging Market View: Trouble on the Frontier
Debt crises in several smaller economies highlight broader fiscal troubles.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 30, 2022

Economic Roundup: What Goes Down Must Go Up
U.S. consumer sentiment jumps because of a strong labor market and a drop in gasoline prices.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 30, 2022

Capital Market View: U.S. Bond Market Not Immune to Volcker-Channeling Powell
Spreads have widened and perceptions of credit risk have risen.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 30, 2022

U.S. Housing More Overvalued Than Ever
House price appreciation will quickly cool in the coming quarters as higher mortgage rates zap demand.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 30, 2022

U.S. Labor Demand Still Red-Hot
The Fed faces a narrow path toward a soft landing.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 30, 2022

Corporate Investors Dominate Bottom End of Housing Market
Affordability pressures will persist despite a cooling U.S. market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Aug 29, 2022

Economic Roundup: Back to Reality
Powell sends a clear message about the potential for a pivot.

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