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Oct 03, 2022
It is not a recession but the details are troubling.
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Oct 03, 2022
A natural disaster hits, inflation broadens, and financial market conditions tighten.
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Sep 30, 2022
Red flags are emerging in the corporate bond market.
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Sep 30, 2022
A possible pipeline sabotage and proposed sanctions strain relationship.
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Sep 30, 2022
Foreign exchange markets are in disarray but some currencies are faring better than others.
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Sep 30, 2022
Survey results due soon should shed light on how U.S. household banking habits and access to financial services may have changed during COVID-19.
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Sep 29, 2022
Stronger growth and higher inflation put the Fed in a more difficult situation.
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Sep 29, 2022
Spreads widen as financial markets remain tumultuous.
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Sep 29, 2022
The storm is on track to rank among the more costly natural disasters of recent years.
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Sep 29, 2022
Rising interest rates and inflation are the big drivers.
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Sep 29, 2022
Two years of rapid, stimulus-fueled growth are quickly coming to a close.
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Sep 28, 2022
BoE intervenes in the bond market and Hurricane Ian makes landfall in Florida.
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Sep 28, 2022
GDP is looking a little better, and annual revisions will be released on Thursday.
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Sep 28, 2022
Pending home sales dropped in August, and more decline is to come.
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Sep 27, 2022
New-home sales jumped in August as rates fell.
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Sep 27, 2022
Higher borrowing costs mean investments in capacity enhancements like new plants and equipment are pricier.
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Sep 27, 2022
The forecast calls for a broad-based slowdown.
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Sep 27, 2022
Tight labor supply and stubbornly high inflation have left businesses and consumers on edge about the future course of the economy.
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Sep 26, 2022
The Bank of England's statement fails to settle foreign exchange or bond markets.
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Sep 26, 2022
The U.S. dollar is on a tear and shows no signs of stopping.
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Sep 26, 2022
Reading between the lines, the Fed could stomach a recession to help tame inflation.
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Sep 26, 2022
Last week's FOMC meeting demonstrated just how serious the central bank is about reining in inflation.
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Sep 26, 2022
The Fed's impact on rate-sensitive consumer credit products will be significant.
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Sep 26, 2022
Recession fears surge as the message sinks in from Jerome Powell and the Fed hawks.
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Sep 23, 2022
Central banks want financial market conditions to tighten and they're getting it.
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Sep 23, 2022
The EU looks to sever energy ties to Russia.
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Sep 23, 2022
Recession odds are rising as the Bank of Canada maintains its aggressive push to whip inflation.
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Sep 23, 2022
Most asset classes had weak returns in the stagflationary environment from 1965 to 1984.
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Sep 23, 2022
U.S. central bank policymakers' median projection for the unemployment rate now implies that a recession is unavoidable, based on a crucial indicator.
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Sep 22, 2022
The Fed wants the labor market to cool off but new filings suggest it is still hot.
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Sep 22, 2022
Uncertainty remains correctly high.
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Sep 22, 2022
New filings at 285,000 are consistent with no monthly job growth.
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Sep 22, 2022
The risks of stagflation are higher in the U.K. and Europe than in the U.S.
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Sep 21, 2022
The Fed is going to inflict more pain on the economy to curb inflation.
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Sep 21, 2022
Record-high inflation and a more aggressive monetary policy response dampen sentiment.
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Sep 21, 2022
Record-high inflation and a more aggressive monetary policy response dampen sentiment.
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Sep 21, 2022
The island's resiliency, at least in the economic statistics, masks the high human toll of hurricanes.
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Sep 20, 2022
The improvement in U.S. starts isn't the new norm.
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Sep 20, 2022
Retail growth will mostly come from outside traditional segments.
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Sep 20, 2022
Consumer spending doesn't falter first; watch housing and business equipment spending.
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Sep 20, 2022
Stocks went nowhere for a decade while yields rose during stagflation.
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Sep 20, 2022
Higher-than-expected CPI inflation gives the Fed cover for a 75-basis point rate hike.
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Sep 20, 2022
This week, the podcast focuses on the U.S. labor market.
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Sep 19, 2022
This is the longest streak of declines since the inception of the data in 1985.
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Sep 19, 2022
When good news is bad news.
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Sep 19, 2022
We look for a 75-basis point hike and for the dot plot to show a higher terminal rate.
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Sep 16, 2022
While confidence edged higher, it still remains low.
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Sep 16, 2022
The Federal Reserve has the difficult task of trying to tame inflation without pushing the economy into a recession.
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Sep 16, 2022
We evaluate some upside and downside risks of Trudeau's recent cost-of-living support package.
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Sep 16, 2022
The bloc plans to tax energy companies to subsidise sky-high prices.
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Sep 16, 2022
As gasoline prices fall, the focus shifts to inflation components like shelter that make up a large share of the core consumer price index.
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Sep 16, 2022
Early indications from component data suggest further improvement is en route.
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Sep 15, 2022
Thursday's data cut Q3 tracking from 1.7% to 1.1% at an annualized rate.
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Sep 15, 2022
A little issuance rush ahead of Fed meeting.
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Sep 15, 2022
Lower-income households suffer more.
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Sep 14, 2022
It won't take long for this to turn into a macroeconomic event.
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Sep 14, 2022
A new rate path implies weaker GDP growth and higher unemployment.
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Sep 14, 2022
A U.S. rail worker strike of several weeks would have significant economic and inflation costs.
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Sep 14, 2022
The U.S. president's plan will have only a marginal effect on growth and inflation in 2023.
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Sep 14, 2022
The U.S. president's plan will have only a marginal effect on growth and inflation in 2023.
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Sep 14, 2022
The poverty rate held nearly steady.
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Sep 13, 2022
August's CPI print all but ensures a 75-basis point increase at the Fed's FOMC meeting next week.
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Sep 12, 2022
There is still a chance that the global economy avoids a recession.
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Sep 12, 2022
Odds rise for a 75-basis point rate hike.
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Sep 12, 2022
Jobless claims are a testament to the strength of the labor market, and the Fed won't like it.
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Sep 12, 2022
Despite headwinds the economy is showing continued strength.
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Sep 09, 2022
The Fed is sending a not-so-subtle message about its plans.
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Sep 09, 2022
A shake-up is in store for the housing market.
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Sep 09, 2022
August employment doesn't settle the debate over whether the Fed will hike by 50 or 75 basis points this month.
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Sep 09, 2022
Presidents Xi and Putin will discuss continued partnership.
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Sep 09, 2022
Survey data for 2021 showed an incomplete return to pre-pandemic habits.
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Sep 08, 2022
July's CPI and PCE deflator prints, like June's, benefited from the comedown in energy prices.
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Sep 08, 2022
Unemployment numbers ease concern about U.S. economy while the ECB sees 75 as the new 25.
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Sep 08, 2022
There are more signs that used-car prices are moving in the right direction.
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Sep 08, 2022
This could give the Fed a window to hike by 75 basis points later this month.
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Sep 07, 2022
Among the notable changes is monetary policy as the Fed is front-loading rate hikes.
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Sep 07, 2022
The 10-year Treasury yield has risen in each of the last five Septembers and seven of the past 10.
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Sep 06, 2022
It unexpectedly edged higher in August, pushing against recession concerns.
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Sep 06, 2022
The Fed got what it wanted in the August jobs report, but further cooling is needed to quell wages and prices.
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Sep 06, 2022
Compensation of employees is deviating from the labor income proxy.
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Sep 06, 2022
The nominal trade deficit likely narrowed in July.
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Sep 06, 2022
U.S. companies are tapping the corporate bond market before rates rise again.
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Sep 06, 2022
Odds are that August U.S. job growth was stronger than the latest report indicates, and we explain why.
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Sep 02, 2022
Our U.S. offices will be closed Monday for Labor Day.
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Sep 02, 2022
August normally disappoints, but job growth came in stronger this time.
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Sep 02, 2022
August's report, caveats and quirks aside, landed in the Goldilocks zone.
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Sep 02, 2022
The sooner the Bank of Canada can stop tightening, the better the odds of avoiding recession.
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Sep 01, 2022
ISM and initial claims suggest the economy is fine while GDP doesn't.
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Sep 01, 2022
There has been no high-yield issuance recently.
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Sep 01, 2022
Did the August effect strike again?
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Sep 01, 2022
Businesses appear to have had surprising success passing through cost increases to consumers.
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Aug 31, 2022
Unfortunately, inflation on the Continent is unlikely to have peaked.
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Aug 31, 2022
Deposit rates have only slowly responded to the rising fed funds rate.
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Aug 31, 2022
Debt crises in several smaller economies highlight broader fiscal troubles.
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Aug 30, 2022
U.S. consumer sentiment jumps because of a strong labor market and a drop in gasoline prices.
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Aug 30, 2022
Spreads have widened and perceptions of credit risk have risen.
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Aug 30, 2022
House price appreciation will quickly cool in the coming quarters as higher mortgage rates zap demand.
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Aug 30, 2022
The Fed faces a narrow path toward a soft landing.
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Aug 30, 2022
Affordability pressures will persist despite a cooling U.S. market.
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Aug 29, 2022
Powell sends a clear message about the potential for a pivot.
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