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Feb 03, 2023
Statistics and precedents show Canada's new ban on foreign property buyers will not work.
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Feb 03, 2023
January's increase in U.S. payrolls was more than double our above-consensus forecast.
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Feb 03, 2023
Payroll gains far surpassed expectations in January.
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Feb 03, 2023
Orthodox macroeconomic theory had a head-scratching morning.
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Feb 03, 2023
An alleged spy balloon was floating over Montana just days before the U.S. secretary of state was due to confer with China's leader.
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Feb 02, 2023
Wages slowed and productivity firmed in the fourth quarter.
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Feb 02, 2023
We look for the economy to have added 220,000 jobs, on net, in January.
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Feb 02, 2023
Expressed as a share of GDP, the previous comparable level of issuance was in 2005 during a previous Fed tightening cycle.
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Feb 02, 2023
We look for Friday's report to show that the economy added 220,000 jobs on net last month.
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Feb 01, 2023
After front-loading rate hikes in 2022, the FOMC has now slowed the pace of increases.
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Feb 01, 2023
The central bank is keyed into the labor market as the main channel by which to slow rising prices.
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Jan 31, 2023
Wage growth is slowing but not by enough to get the Fed to back off hiking rates in February.
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Jan 31, 2023
Incoming U.S. economic data on Tuesday continue to suggest it would be premature for the Fed to declare victory against inflation.
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Jan 31, 2023
Employment Cost Index data show wage growth slowing, but the Fed will need to see more before it halts rate hikes.
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Jan 31, 2023
The economic pain from persistently elevated inflation, rising borrowing costs, and shifting consumer behavior is hitting industries unequally.
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Jan 30, 2023
U.S. labor market data and February's FOMC meeting headline a busy week.
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Jan 30, 2023
Despite solid growth in the back half of 2022, other indicators paint a more uncertain picture.
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Jan 30, 2023
Were the latest U.S. growth numbers positive for the economy?
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Jan 30, 2023
Household spending is expected to slow further, which will weigh on balance growth across consumer finance products.
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Jan 27, 2023
Real personal spending fell in December; the PCE deflator confirmed inflation is moderating.
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Jan 27, 2023
The Fed is on track to hike rates another 25 basis points next week.
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Jan 27, 2023
The Bank of Canada has signaled its intention to pause rate hikes after a 25-basis point raise.
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Jan 27, 2023
Housing was a negative in the fourth quarter, but we overestimated how much investment was going on elsewhere.
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Jan 27, 2023
Odds of the Fed achieving its desired soft-landing have increased.
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Jan 27, 2023
The likelihood that stress between the two countries increases is rising.
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Jan 26, 2023
While GDP growth was strong in the fourth quarter, we expect the economy to struggle in 2023.
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Jan 26, 2023
We're wary of the debt limit debate, a potential crypto crash, and the chance of OPEC oil production cuts.
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Jan 26, 2023
GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, capping a much-improved second half of the year.
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Jan 26, 2023
In a series of analyses, we'll examine factors constraining labor supply.
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Jan 25, 2023
We anticipate real GDP expanded at a healthy 3.3% annualized rate in the final quarter of 2022.
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Jan 25, 2023
We look for healthy 3.3% growth at an annualized rate.
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Jan 25, 2023
Slowing inflation, improving gas markets, and China's comeback bring upside risks for 2023.
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Jan 25, 2023
The most likely genesis of a crisis lies not in a sovereign default but rather in a global overheating scenario.
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Jan 24, 2023
While wealth has fallen substantially, it grew at an unprecedented rate in late 2020 and early 2021.
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Jan 24, 2023
What is the path through the looming debt-limit debate?
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Jan 24, 2023
Balance sheets remain strong.
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Jan 24, 2023
Metal prices are expected to decline in 2023, but a faster-than-expected China recovery could keep prices up.
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Jan 23, 2023
The Conference Board's leading economic index decline isn't as sharp as before previous recessions.
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Jan 23, 2023
The U.S. Treasury must use "extraordinary measures" to pay its bills, but those measures will be exhausted by no later than early October.
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Jan 23, 2023
Retail sales, industrial production and residential construction weighed heavily on our fourth-quarter estimate of real GDP growth.
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Jan 23, 2023
The Conference Board's leading economic index declined for a 10th straight month in December.
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Jan 20, 2023
U.S. housing activity remains muted amid high interest rates.
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Jan 20, 2023
Housing data next week will reflect a market that is being crushed by a lack of affordability and still-rising interest rates.
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Jan 20, 2023
The forces driving inflation are also powering uneven wage growth across industries.
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Jan 20, 2023
Trade tensions between the two countries have cooled.
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Jan 20, 2023
Factory payrolls will be little changed this year as the weakness in goods spending persists.
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Jan 19, 2023
If lawmakers fail to act in time, the federal government could be at risk of a default as early as August.
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Jan 19, 2023
Credit spreads have stabilized after narrowing considerably last month.
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Jan 19, 2023
If lawmakers do not act, the federal government would be at risk of a default as early as August.
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Jan 18, 2023
A year from now, these might look like the good old days.
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Jan 18, 2023
December data on industrial production and retail sales weigh on fourth-quarter output.
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Jan 18, 2023
Disappointing retail sales and IP data lowered our tracking on Q4 growth from 4.3% to 3.6%.
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Jan 18, 2023
Disappointing retail sales and IP data lowered our tracking on Q4 growth from 4.3% to 3.6%.
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Jan 18, 2023
Weakening demand for goods will continue to allow inventories to be restocked.
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Jan 17, 2023
Wednesday will bring U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter into clearer view.
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Jan 17, 2023
December's CPI report confirmed an ongoing easing of inflation.
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Jan 17, 2023
Wholesale price declines will continue into 2023 as new-vehicle production grows.
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Jan 17, 2023
Inflation is clearly softening across the board.
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Jan 15, 2023
Our U.S. offices will be close Monday in observance of the Birthday of Martin Luther King, Jr.
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Jan 13, 2023
We preview factors affecting inflation in 2023.
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Jan 13, 2023
The labor market remains resilient but is slowly moderating.
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Jan 13, 2023
Consumer sentiment beat expectations to start the year, but concerns remain.
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Jan 13, 2023
Congress will have to address government funding and the debt limit.
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Jan 13, 2023
Softening inflation data boosted our Q4 estimate from 4.1% to 4.3%.
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Jan 13, 2023
Changes in migration led to a noticeable realignment, but Equifax estimates anticipated them.
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Jan 12, 2023
As expected, December's U.S. CPI data showed a further easing of price growth.
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Jan 11, 2023
Inflation likely continued to cool after peaking in June.
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Jan 11, 2023
We expect a headline rise of 0.1% from the month before, a touch higher than consensus.
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Jan 11, 2023
Under almost any scenario, the economy is set to have a difficult year.
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Jan 11, 2023
By 2025, U.S. house prices will be back to their late-2021 level, eliminating an estimated $4 trillion in housing wealth.
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Jan 10, 2023
Our January baseline contained subtle changes to our monetary policy outlook.
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Jan 10, 2023
The December employment report brought good news for the Fed's mission to squash inflation.
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Jan 09, 2023
The global economy is struggling but continues to avoid a full-blown recession.
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Jan 09, 2023
Recent U.S. data have inspired well-founded optimism for a soft landing in the economy.
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Jan 09, 2023
Where's the line between recession and no recession?
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Jan 06, 2023
All signs point to inflation continuing to moderate on a year-over-year basis.
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Jan 06, 2023
The U.S. added an extraordinary 4.5 million jobs in 2022, but a slowdown is underway.
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Jan 06, 2023
The labor market is undergoing a steady loosening.
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Jan 06, 2023
Canadian farm yield is nearing a record high, which could translate to higher export volume.
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Jan 06, 2023
The central bank will keep communications hawkish.
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Jan 06, 2023
Bond, stock and cryptocurrency investors alike are nursing heavy losses over the past 12 months.
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Jan 05, 2023
Data released in the new year put our tracking estimate of fourth-quarter growth at 4.1% annualized.
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Jan 05, 2023
We look for the economy to have added 215,000 jobs on net in December.
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Jan 05, 2023
We look for the economy to have added 215,000 jobs on net last month.
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Jan 04, 2023
The ISM manufacturing index fell again, and job openings remain stubbornly high.
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Jan 03, 2023
The U.S. economy will struggle this year, although we expect a recession will be averted.
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Jan 03, 2023
Cooling markets for housing, oil and imported goods are among drivers of the softening outlook.
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Jan 03, 2023
The U.S. economy is sure to have a difficult 2023 as the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively push up interest rates to quell the painfully high inflation.
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Jan 03, 2023
The wider consensus now says there will be a recession, but...
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Dec 30, 2022
We expect job gains continued to cool in December with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%.
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Dec 30, 2022
Persistent core inflation and an aggressive monetary response are taking a toll on the global expansion.
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Dec 29, 2022
Jobless claims give little cause for concern ahead of next week's employment report.
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Dec 28, 2022
Pending home sales fell even more than expected in November.
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Dec 28, 2022
U.S. service prices now lead consumer price growth.
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Dec 28, 2022
Overly aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve is the main threat to lending in the months ahead.
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Dec 27, 2022
Concerns surrounding the economic and geopolitical environment continue to mount.
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Dec 27, 2022
Mortgage rates have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, leaving buyers less willing and able to purchase new and existing homes.
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Dec 27, 2022
Our tracker is showing growth at 1.3% in the final quarter of 2022.
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Dec 27, 2022
Have low-income households already burned through pandemic savings?
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Dec 27, 2022
A descent into recession if the Fed fails to achieve a soft landing is the greatest threat facing the labor market over the next year.
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