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May 17, 2021
On an ISM-composite basis, the Empire State survey remained north of 60.
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May 17, 2021
Do economists have superstitions?
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May 17, 2021
U.S. consumer prices popped in April, but the pickup looks transitory.
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May 17, 2021
The biggest near-term risk is a jump in mortgage rates, but that's unlikely with peaking GDP growth.
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May 17, 2021
We now look for real GDP to rise 6.8% this year, compared with the 6.4% in the April baseline.
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May 14, 2021
There will likely be a significant shift away from goods spending in favor of services.
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May 14, 2021
Rising prices at the pump boost consumers inflation expectations, but it's unlikely to stick.
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May 14, 2021
Despite poor performance in April, both supply and demand for labor are on the upswing.
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May 14, 2021
Malaysia is hit hard by a contagious COVID-19 variant.
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May 14, 2021
The frequency of this post will shift from weekly to monthly.
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May 14, 2021
There are few precedents for the government, corporate, household and financial sector borrowing binge.
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May 14, 2021
As government's contribution fades, more fundamental sources of income including compensation and investment income will be major supports.
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May 13, 2021
U.S. initial claims drop below 500,000; another day, another hot reading on inflation.
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May 13, 2021
Inflation expectations dip even as the PPI comes in hotter than expected.
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May 13, 2021
Urban areas of the U.S. lost residents in 2020, but this partly reflects a continuation of pre-pandemic patterns.
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May 12, 2021
Reopening, stimulus and chip shortage boost April U.S. CPI.
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May 12, 2021
Leisure, hospitality, travel and autos have pushed inflation higher.
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May 12, 2021
The jump in April's U.S. CPI, which is temporary, was attributed to the reopening of the economy.
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May 11, 2021
New fiscal, EPI assumptions and incoming data alter the forecast for the U.S. economy.
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May 11, 2021
Fewer infections and a rising share of the population vaccinated has led states to loosen restrictions.
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May 11, 2021
Odds are that U.S. shelter CPI will surprise to the upside, but the implications for inflation are minor.
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May 11, 2021
The central bank cautions that equity prices could drop if sentiment shifts.
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May 11, 2021
The job market faces a new challenge, though the economy is still booming.
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May 11, 2021
The expansion of unemployment insurance benefits may be a factor in limiting the supply of labor.
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May 11, 2021
The April employment report gave credence to what the Fed has been preaching: patience.
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May 10, 2021
Regional gasoline price jumps have been avoided, for now.
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May 10, 2021
Other than the underwhelming jobs number, economic data released last week was broadly positive.
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May 10, 2021
Normally, we wouldn't grumble about the U.S. economy adding a net 266,000 jobs in a month, but these aren't normal times.
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May 10, 2021
After another pass, claims offered a clue that job growth would be weak.
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May 10, 2021
If Colonial Pipeline petroleum flows are restored within a week or two, the shock waves will be minimal.
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May 10, 2021
We discuss the April employment report and work from anywhere.
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May 07, 2021
We dig deeper into April's disappointing jobs report.
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May 07, 2021
April U.S. employment falls well short of expectations, supporting Fed's approach of patience.
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May 07, 2021
Several factors are weighing on labor supply, some are temporary.
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May 07, 2021
Economic growth is poised to surge once the latest wave of infections abates.
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May 07, 2021
New jobs in April came in at one-third of our expectation.
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May 07, 2021
The central bank will leave its key interest rate at the record-low 0.1%.
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May 06, 2021
Initial claims are now below 500,000 while a strong rebound in productivity continued in Q1.
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May 06, 2021
As national population growth slows, states lean on advantages to increase in-migration.
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May 06, 2021
As national population growth slows, states lean on advantages to increase in-migration.
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May 06, 2021
The Treasury Department warns about the need to raise the debt ceiling.
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May 06, 2021
The forecast is for a net 900,000 gain in nonfarm employment.
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May 05, 2021
The recovery in job growth continues to accelerate.
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May 05, 2021
The ADP National Employment Report signals a strong April jobs report.
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May 05, 2021
Our initial estimate puts second-quarter growth at 13% at an annualized rate.
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May 05, 2021
Costs per gallon on average are comparable to two years ago.
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May 05, 2021
Zombie firms have been on the rise in recent decades.
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May 04, 2021
U.S. fiscal stimulus has contributed to a red-hot auto market and a widening nominal trade deficit.
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May 04, 2021
Available data indicate that nearly 1 in 20 of the world's adults are fully inoculated against COVID-19.
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May 04, 2021
The president's proposal is a bold effort to invest in the nation's infrastructure and labor force.
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May 03, 2021
ISM manufacturing survey and construction spending fail to live up to expectations.
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May 03, 2021
The overwhelming amount of liquidity in the money markets could force the Fed to alter IOER and RRP.
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May 03, 2021
We talk the Biden administration's American Families Plan and who deserves credit for the booming U.S. economy.
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May 03, 2021
Economic indicators last week left us feeling optimistic.
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May 03, 2021
Metro-area job growth is occurring evenly across the country.
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May 03, 2021
U.S. population flows could see a major shake-up.
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May 02, 2021
Once the economy has returned to full employment, addressing our long-term fiscal problems will become critical.
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Apr 30, 2021
Nominal personal income jumped 21.1% in March, but only 1.4% excluding transfer payments.
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Apr 30, 2021
Number of high-yield rating upgrades outnumber downgrades in the first quarter.
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Apr 30, 2021
Our new measure was stable last week but has been quickening.
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Apr 30, 2021
The president proposes a $1.8 trillion plan for workers, families and children.
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Apr 30, 2021
The president's two-part plan would call for $4.6 trillion over the next decade.
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Apr 29, 2021
We may need to revise our forecast higher for this year but not because of Biden's address.
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Apr 29, 2021
Fiscal policy took center stage in the President's speech, but nothing was said to alter our assumptions.
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Apr 29, 2021
Prices were up 28.8% on a year-over-year basis in March.
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Apr 29, 2021
Growth was 6.4% at an annualized rate, another big step in closing the output gap.
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Apr 29, 2021
Fed's commitment to flexible average inflation targeting will be tested, but uncertainty is low.
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Apr 29, 2021
COVID-19 still influenced monthly growth, but vaccine uptake is having a positive effect.
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Apr 28, 2021
We look for GDP to have risen 7.1% at an annualized rate.
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Apr 28, 2021
The Biden proposal would provide further economic support with $1 trillion in spending and $900 billion in tax credits.
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Apr 28, 2021
High-yield corporate bond spreads will remain tight, but a return of volatility would change that.
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Apr 28, 2021
Expectations lead the way.
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Apr 27, 2021
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index has jumped over the past couple of months.
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Apr 27, 2021
The money is available.
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Apr 27, 2021
It is unclear if resumed use of the Johnson & Johnson product will boost U.S. inoculations.
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Apr 27, 2021
The corporate segment recovery seems remarkable.
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Apr 27, 2021
Our tracking estimate of first-quarter GDP has edged higher recently and is at 7.3% at an annualized rate.
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Apr 27, 2021
A third wave of the pandemic has got Central and Eastern Europe off to a slow start.
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Apr 27, 2021
Revisions are minor in aggregate and show no change in patterns of growth before the pandemic.
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Apr 26, 2021
The details for goods orders were better than the 0.5% headline gain would suggest.
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Apr 26, 2021
Our high-frequency GDP model puts annualized GDP growth in the first quarter at over 7%.
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Apr 26, 2021
Neither higher corporate or capital gains taxes will significantly dent the stock market or economy.
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Apr 26, 2021
There will not be any significant changes, including to the Fed's forward guidance.
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Apr 26, 2021
The American economy will almost surely best China's as Chinese growth cools from a torrid pace.
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Apr 26, 2021
Different inflation forecasts lead to different view on U.S. interest rates.
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Apr 23, 2021
Sales for two of the past three months have topped 1 million.
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Apr 23, 2021
The central bank is first out of the gate in reducing the pace of quantitative easing purchases.
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Apr 23, 2021
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will probably stick to a narrow range for a period of time.
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Apr 23, 2021
March was the strongest month in decades for the economy.
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Apr 23, 2021
The European Central Bank made no changes to its highly accommodative policy stance.
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Apr 23, 2021
The gender gap for prime-age adults widened during the COVID-19 school year.
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Apr 22, 2021
Sales fell in March, reversing only some of the enormous jump in the second half of last year.
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Apr 22, 2021
The proposal is fiscally responsible and empowers programs already in place and shown to be effective in meeting the challenges of providing affordable housing.
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Apr 22, 2021
Issuance in March was strong and the near-term outlook is favorable.
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Apr 22, 2021
Revised data for 2020 show that early predictions about U.S. regional impacts generally proved correct.
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Apr 21, 2021
Base effects are going to juice consumer prices across many developed economies.
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Apr 21, 2021
A jump in long-term rates and drop in stock prices will hurt corporate bonds.
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Apr 20, 2021
Vaccination progress still mixed among developed economies.
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Apr 20, 2021
The recovery is gaining traction following a difficult winter.
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Apr 20, 2021
Conditions are mixed in Europe, while Japan faces an uphill task.
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