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Jun 17, 2019
Since June 14, 2018, the yield has dropped from 2.94% to a recent 2.09%.
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Jun 17, 2019
The FOMC will likely leave interest rates unchanged this week, but Powell's statements will be telling.
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Jun 17, 2019
No glaring potential macroeconomic imbalances are forming yet.
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Jun 17, 2019
Chairman Powell will need to thread a needle.
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Jun 14, 2019
Although the average of both predicted midpoints warn of a wider high-yield bond spread.
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Jun 14, 2019
May data reports for the U.S. and China were positive, but that may complicate negotiations.
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Jun 14, 2019
The economy was gathering momentum before the trade tensions escalated.
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Jun 14, 2019
A drop in exports held back stronger GDP growth in the first quarter.
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Jun 13, 2019
The 10-year Treasury yield will probably average something less than 2.5% through the end of 2020.
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Jun 13, 2019
Claims may be signaling that worker confidence has peaked and job growth is slowing.
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Jun 13, 2019
Federal relief can matter a lot in disaster-stricken regional economies.
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Jun 12, 2019
Year-over-year retail sales growth slowed from 4.8% in 2018 to 3.0% in 2019.
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Jun 12, 2019
Mandatory programs push U.S. deficits higher.
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Jun 12, 2019
Real growth in federal outlays has actually been slowing.
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Jun 11, 2019
First-quarter 2019's corporate debt advanced by 8.1% year over year to $9.913 trillion.
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Jun 11, 2019
Year-over-year PPI growth is decelerating due to falling energy prices.
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Jun 11, 2019
This may seem surprising considering the trade war between the U.S. and its top trading partners.
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Jun 11, 2019
Expansion is slowing amid rising downside risks.
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Jun 11, 2019
The labor market is in good shape, but manufacturing is on edge.
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Jun 11, 2019
The market value of U.S. common stock edged higher by 2.3% from its close of last June 14.
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Jun 10, 2019
Trump's tariff threats pivot from Mexico to China while the Fed mulls a pivot to interest rate cuts.
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Jun 10, 2019
President Trump again threatened levies on nearly $300 billion worth of Chinese goods imports.
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Jun 10, 2019
The June baseline will include no Fed hike in 2020 and a lower 10-year yield forecast.
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Jun 10, 2019
The April tax windfall was only a fleeting relief for the Treasury under the debt limit.
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Jun 07, 2019
Job growth was weak in May, but eventually this will be normal.
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Jun 07, 2019
Also, the market now thinks the Fed will cut rates three times in 2019.
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Jun 07, 2019
Key data ahead include retail sales, industrial production and consumer prices.
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Jun 07, 2019
Slower growth in the U.S. and elsewhere could exacerbate Canada's problems.
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Jun 07, 2019
If employment falls, chances are good we are in a recession.
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Jun 07, 2019
Our takeaway from the central bank's conference is that it will adopt average inflation targeting next year.
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Jun 06, 2019
The assets of U.S. private depository institutions equal 45% of loans, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds.
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Jun 06, 2019
We are adjusting our forecast for the ECB and now don't anticipate a hike this year.
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Jun 06, 2019
The calendar could be a positive, and we look for a 190,000 net gain.
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Jun 05, 2019
The weak NAI may help explain why the annual rate of core PCE price index inflation was 1.8% despite a low jobless rate.
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Jun 05, 2019
The president reiterates his tariff threats on Mexico as the U.S. labor market softens.
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Jun 05, 2019
The Fed's cutting of interest rates in response to the yield curve in 1998 prevented a recession.
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Jun 04, 2019
Markets were happy to hear that the central bank would step in if the economy needs it.
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Jun 04, 2019
Small components of GDP account for a large share of volatility in growth.
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Jun 04, 2019
The use of tariffs as a policy lever could cause us to adjust the odds around our trade war scenarios.
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Jun 04, 2019
The presidential candidate has a proposal to address climate change and infrastructure.
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Jun 03, 2019
U.S. bond market is on edge, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield down toward 2%.
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Jun 03, 2019
As the trade wars escalate, threats to the U.S. economy are mounting.
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Jun 03, 2019
Rate cuts in 1998 helped avoid a recession after a yield-curve inversion.
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Jun 03, 2019
Last week's data predate the latest rounds of trade war escalation.
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Jun 03, 2019
Just as growth begins to regain momentum, downside risks intensify.
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May 31, 2019
Also, industrial metals price index sunk to its lowest since January 6.
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May 31, 2019
A fresh trade war with Mexico could hurt sentiment and boost recession risks.
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May 31, 2019
Employment data and Fed speeches will dominate the week ahead.
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May 31, 2019
Trade tensions could do even more damage, and the central bank may have to respond.
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May 31, 2019
What does the move against Mexico mean for the U.S. trade discussions with China?
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May 31, 2019
The potential for this to escalate quickly, boosts recession risks and odds of a Fed cut.
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May 30, 2019
The default rate was higher 12 months after a Treasury yield curve inversion 79% of the time.
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May 30, 2019
Fed unlikely to get worked up over the downward revision to Q1 core PCE deflator.
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May 30, 2019
Is use of the term an excuse rather than an explanation?
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May 30, 2019
Nearly 6 months into the year, we look back at our projections; there have been some surprises.
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May 29, 2019
Moody's long-term Baa industrial company bond yield average only slightly dipped.
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May 29, 2019
Recent drop in the 10-year Treasury yield is roughly equivalent to a Fed rate cut.
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May 29, 2019
Expect national demand to rise slowly but steadily.
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May 28, 2019
The unemployment rate has done little to boost inflation risks, so the Fed can raise rates.
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May 28, 2019
U.S. consumers haven't responded to the escalation in the trade tensions, yet.
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May 28, 2019
Business confidence will likely sour even further.
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May 28, 2019
The trade war and low housing affordability drove some disappointments.
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May 25, 2019
We look for a downward revision to first-quarter GDP.
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May 24, 2019
The U.S. offices of Economy.com will be closed Monday.
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May 24, 2019
The chances of a no-deal Brexit have significantly increased.
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May 24, 2019
Higher interest rates are having a counterintuitive effect on inflation.
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May 23, 2019
Markets beginning to feel that the trade tensions won't go away soon.
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May 23, 2019
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of 2.31% looks incredibly generous in comparison.
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May 23, 2019
Overall economic conditions are strong, but there are spending challenges in education, healthcare and infrastructure.
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May 22, 2019
FOMC minutes don't alter our view that rates are on hold for the foreseeable future.
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May 22, 2019
Fed funds target is 64% likely to be reduced by May 2020.
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May 22, 2019
Will Trump push too far?
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May 21, 2019
The cross-party sweeteners in Prime Minister May's new Brexit deal may be too little, too late.
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May 21, 2019
The Fed chair doesn't think the record debt poses a Great Recession-sized threat to systemic financial liquidity.
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May 21, 2019
There are good reasons the think CLOs won't be catalysts of the next recession.
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May 20, 2019
We have cut our subjective odds of a deal by the G-20 meeting, again.
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May 20, 2019
New loans rated Baa or lower fell by 31% year over year.
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May 20, 2019
Souring trade relations loom over a healthy, if softening U.S. economy.
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May 20, 2019
Still, the overall impact of the tariffs on inflation has been modest.
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May 20, 2019
Year-to-date payroll gains have averaged 205,000 per month.
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May 17, 2019
Resolving trade issues should be easier than it was remedying the 2002-2006 housing bubble.
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May 17, 2019
A U.S. agreement with Canada and Mexico reduces the odds for a quick one with China.
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May 17, 2019
Expect a decent gain in existing-home sales, and a slew of Fed speeches.
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May 17, 2019
The NAFTA replacement free-trade pact faces increasing peril.
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May 16, 2019
The outstandings of nonfinancial-business debt grew from 1998's 57.7% to 2018's near-record 73.1% of nominal GDP.
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May 16, 2019
Lower mortgage rates should begin to help housing soon.
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May 16, 2019
Wealth and income gains make household financial burdens extremely low by historical standards.
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May 15, 2019
U.S. and Chinese economic data were weak.
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May 15, 2019
A continued drop would harm both corporate earnings and corporate credit quality.
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May 15, 2019
Odds of an 'insurance' rate cut by the central bank are still low.
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May 15, 2019
April retail sales were weak across the board, cutting into Q2 GDP.
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May 15, 2019
Never mind the hand-wringing; total household indebtedness has fallen sharply since the financial crisis.
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May 15, 2019
High tech will remain concentrated in only a handful of regions.
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May 14, 2019
Tariffs have yet to accelerate U.S. import price inflation.
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May 14, 2019
No big surprises on how the use of tariffs has impacted the U.S. economy.
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May 14, 2019
The trade war has gone from bad to worse.
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May 13, 2019
The 10-year Treasury yield was down to 2.4% for its lowest close since the 2.38% of March 27.
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May 13, 2019
China retaliates after the U.S. increases tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imported goods.
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