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 NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
May 27, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Russia Cuts Supply to Finland
Other EU countries that are more reliant on imports have opened ruble accounts.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 27, 2022

Canada Weekly: Searching for Oil
With global oil markets undersupplied, Canadian oil producers stand to benefit.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 27, 2022

Capital Market View: U.S. Corporate Credit Quality Is Mixed
Moody's rating downgrades outstripped upgrades 6-to-3 recently.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 27, 2022

Tracking Entrepreneurship in the U.S.
The Moody's Analytics Broad Based Startup Rate investigates the drivers of business creation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 26, 2022

Economic Roundup: Drop in U.S. Initial Claims Is Encouraging
Claims would have to increase a lot to raise a red flag about the state of the economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 25, 2022

Economic Roundup: FOMC Minutes Increase Odds of Pause, MBS Sales
The Fed likely will hike aggressively over the next few meetings, and then take a breather.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 25, 2022

Takeaways from the April Regional Jobs Report
Performance gaps across regions will likely persist in some fashion.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 25, 2022

Capital Market View: 10-Year Hits a Wall as Economic Data Surprise
The U.S. data have been coming in weaker than expected as the economy cools.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 25, 2022

U.S. B2B Tracker Update: Business Cycle at Hyper-Speed
A pullback in consumer demand due to rising costs would result in an oversupply of some goods.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2022

Economic Roundup: Is U.S. Housing Cooling?
U.S. new-home sales came in soft, though the data should be taken with a grain of salt.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2022

Capital Market View: Possible Pause
Markets are slowly dialing back their expectations for Fed tightening.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2022

Drop in U.S. New-Home Sales Looks Overstated
Something happened in April that has never happened before.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Some Big Tests Ahead
Retail sales and industrial production performed well last month, but the outlook for each is mixed.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2022

U.S. Inflation Heat Map Update
Energy prices eased temporarily in April but have since risen.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2022

Record Gas Prices Won't Ease Soon
It will take the supply side of the economy months if not years to adjust to the new global energy landscape.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 24, 2022

U.S. Credit Outlook: Consumer Installment Soaring
Accelerating inflation and a policy misstep would be near-term obstacles.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 23, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 23, 2022
New-home sales likely declined in April, while jobless claims rise.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 23, 2022

Economic Roundup: Quiet Start to Busy Week
We expect home sales fell in April as rates rose.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 23, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 59—Recession Lessons
We take a world tour of the measures and effects of economic downturns.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 23, 2022

Emerging Market View: The Growth Recession
The labor market in the emerging world remains an open wound.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 23, 2022

U.S. Employment Outlook: Hints of Softening
The sustained pace of payroll gains brings employment within 1.2 million of its pre-pandemic level.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 20, 2022

Economic Roundup: Brutal Week for Equities, But Fed Won't Flinch
Since 1929, there have been 26 bear markets; only 15 coincided with a U.S. economic recession.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 20, 2022

Canada Weekly: The Kids Are All Right
Why aren't rising wages motivating more young Canadians to join the labor force?

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 20, 2022

U.S. Consumers Are Going Back to Stores
The return remains incomplete, according to revised data.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 20, 2022

U.S. Road to Recession: Signs of Cooling
Some of the recent deterioration in sentiment could be a knee-jerk reaction to what has occurred in financial markets.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 20, 2022

Capital Market View: Bear Markets Don't Guarantee Recession
Stock markets traditionally bottom when the Fed comes to the rescue, but that may not happen soon.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 20, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Turkey Delays NATO Membership for Sweden, Finland
Although some negotiations will occur, it's unlikely that the two countries will not be admitted.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 19, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Economy Is Cooling
Growth shows signs of moderating, but it will not tank.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 19, 2022

Capital Market View: A Check on Spreads, Defaults and Issuance
Spreads continue to widen while defaults are higher than this time last year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 19, 2022

U.S. Labor Market Tightness Varies by Region
Differences are due to divergent responses to quits and job openings.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 18, 2022

Economic Roundup: Busy Homebuilders Have Hard Time Adding More
U.S. housing starts decline with a record number of single-family homes under construction.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 18, 2022

Capital Market View: Inflation Surprises Hurt
Historically, assets performed significantly worse during periods of positive inflation surprises.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 18, 2022

U.S. Supply-Chain Stress Rises
Our index shows pressure growing because of China's zero-COVID policy and geopolitics in Eastern Europe.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 18, 2022

Mixed Signals on U.S. Regional Inflation
Seasonally adjusted inflation in the Northeast was the nation's highest last month, the first time this has happened since June.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2022

Economic Roundup: Unhappy U.S. Consumers Still Spend
U.S. retail sales increased in April, boosting our tracking estimate of second-quarter GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2022

The Fed's Policy Mistake
Prolonged monetary expansion helped fuel inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Glimmer of Hope
March's CPI report offered a few bright spots, but risks to the outlook still loom.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 17, 2022

Rising Interest Rates to Hurt U.S. Consumer Budgets—Gradually
Debt burdens will rise but with a lag, since most existing debt is fixed-rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 16, 2022

Economic Roundup: A (Not So) Empire State of Mind
Empire State manufacturers are looking wobbly, while U.S. vehicle affordability deteriorates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 16, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 58—Regional CPI and R-Star
Is this the price of avoiding a depression?

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 16, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 16, 2022
Housing starts and permits likely declined in April.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 16, 2022

Capital Market View: Watch What U.S. Consumers Do, Not Say
Consumer spending isn't likely to backtrack in the near term.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 16, 2022

This Week in the Economy: Are We on the Road to Recession?
Risks are uncomfortably high and rising as the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates to slow growth and quell inflation; a few indicators are worth watching to gauge whether we are headed for a downturn.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Import Prices Cool in April
It still won't keep the Fed from raising up rates in June.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: EU Commission to Reveal REPowerEU Plan
The plan's aim is to end Russian fuel imports by 2027.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2022

Canada Weekly: Abundant Harvest
The latest Farm Credit Canada report highlights accelerated farmland price appreciation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2022

Capital Market View: If You Think U.S. Stocks Are Volatile, Look at the Bond Market
Bond market volatility continues to climb rapidly and the Fed hasn't started QT yet.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 13, 2022

Global Outlook: The Inflation Era
Global GDP growth has been downwardly revised for 2022.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 12, 2022

Economic Roundup: Jobless Claims Inch Higher While PPI Signals Softer Inflation
Initial claims increased but the job market is really tight.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 12, 2022

Capital Market View: Spreads Are on the Move
As spreads widen, issuance has softened.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 12, 2022

Global View of Central Bank Tightening
The vast majority of policymakers around the world are expected to hike rates sharply.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 12, 2022

U.S. CPI by Demographics: April Update
Inflation may have peaked, but this comes as little relief for consumers.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 11, 2022

Economic Roundup: April U.S. CPI Is a Mixed Bag
Energy takes the edge off headline inflation but core prices came in hot.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 11, 2022

U.S. Regional Recession Odds on the Rise
As late-cycle dynamics take hold, the Sun Belt and South flash some warning signs.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 10, 2022

Economic Roundup: Dropping Fiscal Reconciliation Package From U.S. Baseline
The hit to growth this year is small, but tighter financial market conditions are a bigger issue.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 10, 2022

Canada Housing Market: Prices Will Moderate as Demand Pulls Back
Higher rates and the significant deterioration in housing affordability will reduce the number of potential new buyers.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 10, 2022

Global Vaccine Tracker: China's COVID-19 Fight
The economic impact of Shanghai's lockdown is extreme.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 10, 2022

Change in U.S. House-Price Equation
We have revised variables within our forecast model of the FHFA index.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 10, 2022

EU-Russia Proposal Would Reshape Global Energy Market
Russia will look east but can't replace European customers.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 09, 2022

Economic Roundup: Fed Getting What It Wanted
Tighter financial market conditions are needed to slow the economy, but things could get dicey.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 09, 2022

Capital Market View: All Eyes on U.S. April CPI
It will be another mixed report as headline inflation moderates and core accelerates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 09, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 9, 2022
Inflation is this week's economic focus.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 09, 2022

Labor Supply May Not Be as Glaring an Issue
There is a pool of available workers that eliminates the imbalance between supply and demand.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 09, 2022

Inflation Lifts U.S. Consumer Borrowing
Credit usage is normalizing at the same time.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 09, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Houston, We Have Liftoff
The Fed accelerated its interest-rate increases amid a tight labor market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2022

Economic Roundup: A Few Blemishes on April U.S. Employment Report
It doesn't warrant a significant forecast change nor will it prevent the Fed's aggressive hiking.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2022

Canada Weekly: Who Will Avoid the Housing Hangover?
Rising interest rates push concerns about overbuilding to the forefront.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2022

Labor Market Challenges and Opportunities for the Fed
Record U.S. job openings could prove a critical buffer as the central bank attempts to pull off a soft landing for the economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2022

Some Measures of U.S. Employment Less Volatile Than Others
April's gain in payroll employment is closer to reality than the drop in household employment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2022

Capital Market View: Ebbing, Flowing Fears Cause Big Swings in Equities
Volatility is climbing as there were some notable moves in equity returns this week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: European Commission Proposes Russian Oil Ban
The sanctions would phase out crude oil in six months and refined oil by year's end.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 06, 2022

Surviving the Global Food Crunch
Food prices will soon pass the peak, but emerging economies face additional strain.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 05, 2022

Economic Roundup: BoE Hikes; U.S. Productivity Tanks
U.S. corporate profit margins could start to come under pressure.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 05, 2022

Capital Market View: Spreads Widen, ESG Issuance Softens
Green, social and sustainability debt was the weakest since August.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 05, 2022

Final Thoughts Ahead of April U.S. Employment
One word will describe this report—quirks.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 04, 2022

Economic Roundup: Fed Talked the Talk, Walked the Walk
No surprises as Fed hikes by 50 basis points and announces balance sheet runoff.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 04, 2022

Capital Market View: U.S. Q2 GDP Looks to Bounce Back
Our initial tracking estimate has GDP rising 2.2% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 04, 2022

In Monetary Policy, One Size Does Not Fit All
The Federal Reserve's hawkish posture is warranted but carries added costs for some U.S. regions.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 04, 2022

U.S. Inflation Tracker: Fuel on the Fire
Oil and gas prices have been elevated and volatile throughout the spring, a script that will hold over the next few weeks.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 03, 2022

Economic Roundup: How Big Is the U.S. Labor Gap?
It is sizable, but not as large as it may first appear.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 03, 2022

Capital Market View: Money Illusion and Recession Risks
We find reasons that the Fed can pull off a soft landing.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 03, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: ECI, Not GDP, Matters Most for the Fed
The Fed likely paid more attention to continued strength in the ECI, rather than the drop in GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 02, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 2, 2022
Along with raising the target range for the fed funds rate the Fed will announce the reduction in the size of its balance sheet.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 02, 2022

Economic Roundup: ISM Shows Signs of Stress In U.S. Supply Chains
ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly dropped again and the details were generally weak.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 02, 2022

Capital Market View: Outcome of FOMC Meeting Already Determined
Fed will hike by 50 basis points and start cutting its balance sheet.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 02, 2022

Inside Economics: Episode 56—Dr. Doom, a Stiff Drink, and Deflators
Nouriel Roubini explains why the U.S. economy is on a knife edge between soft- and hard-landing scenarios.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2022

Economic Roundup: Fed Has No Choice
It has to raise rates by 50 basis points next week since wage growth is accelerating.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2022

Canada Weekly: I'm Outta Here
An aging population will increase retirements in the next decade and affect labor supply.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2022

As Labor Market Normalizes, Nominal Wage Growth Should Decelerate
The increase in the ECI has been stronger than our calculation using the wage growth Phillips curve.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2022

What's Going on With U.S. Defense Spending?
Real spending by the Pentagon weighed on GDP growth more than expected due in large part to surging fuel costs.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Russia Cuts Gas Supply
Some countries refuse to pay in the Russian-demanded currency.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 29, 2022

U.S. Social Security Benefits Not Keeping Up With Inflation
The 2022 cost-of-living adjustment falls short of inflation by $173 per month for retirees.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 28, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Q1 GDP Fades
Net exports and inventories were enormous weights. The Fed's on track for a 50-basis point hike.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 28, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Q1 GDP Fades
Net exports and inventories were enormous weights. The Fed's on track for a 50-basis point hike.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 28, 2022

Capital Market View: High-Yield Spreads Widen, Issuance Improves
High-yield issuance has perked up a little.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 28, 2022

First-Quarter U.S. GDP: Not Great, Not a Recession
The economy contracted 1.4% on an annualized basis, according to the BEA's preliminary estimate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 28, 2022

Deconstructing U.S. Regional Inflation Differences
CPI data show the importance of demographics and housing costs.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 27, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Q1 GDP Will Be Misleading
Inventories and trade will take a heavy toll on first-quarter GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 27, 2022

U.S. Used-Vehicle Price Growth Takes a Breather
Not seasonally adjusted price growth cooled through the first quarter.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Apr 26, 2022

Economic Roundup: Mixed Bag of U.S. Economic Data
Consumer confidence and new-home sales decline but durable goods rise.

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