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 NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 03, 2023

Canada Weekly: Misguided Ban
Statistics and precedents show Canada's new ban on foreign property buyers will not work.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 03, 2023

Economic Roundup: A Stunning Jobs Report
January's increase in U.S. payrolls was more than double our above-consensus forecast.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 03, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, February 3, 2023
Payroll gains far surpassed expectations in January.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 03, 2023

U.S. Jobs Report Cont'd: Didn't See That Coming
Orthodox macroeconomic theory had a head-scratching morning.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 03, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Blinken-Xi Meeting Postponed
An alleged spy balloon was floating over Montana just days before the U.S. secretary of state was due to confer with China's leader.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 02, 2023

U.S. Wage-Price Spiral Looks Less Likely
Wages slowed and productivity firmed in the fourth quarter.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 02, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Market to Remain Strong
We look for the economy to have added 220,000 jobs, on net, in January.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 02, 2023

Credit Market View: Behind Faltering Bond Issuance
Expressed as a share of GDP, the previous comparable level of issuance was in 2005 during a previous Fed tightening cycle.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 02, 2023

Final Thoughts Ahead of January U.S. Employment
We look for Friday's report to show that the economy added 220,000 jobs on net last month.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 01, 2023

Economic Roundup: Another Step-Down
After front-loading rate hikes in 2022, the FOMC has now slowed the pace of increases.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Feb 01, 2023

U.S. Inflation Tracker: The Fed's Laser Focus
The central bank is keyed into the labor market as the main channel by which to slow rising prices.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 31, 2023

Economic Roundup: Critical Data Prior to FOMC Decision
Wage growth is slowing but not by enough to get the Fed to back off hiking rates in February.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 31, 2023

Reading the Inflation Tea Leaves
Incoming U.S. economic data on Tuesday continue to suggest it would be premature for the Fed to declare victory against inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 31, 2023

Final Thoughts Ahead of the FOMC
Employment Cost Index data show wage growth slowing, but the Fed will need to see more before it halts rate hikes.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 31, 2023

U.S. B2B Tracker: Not Much Momentum
The economic pain from persistently elevated inflation, rising borrowing costs, and shifting consumer behavior is hitting industries unequally.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 30, 2023

Economic Roundup: A Consequential Week
U.S. labor market data and February's FOMC meeting headline a busy week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 30, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: On Thin Ice
Despite solid growth in the back half of 2022, other indicators paint a more uncertain picture.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 30, 2023

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 96—Crazy Data, Claims and Cowbells
Were the latest U.S. growth numbers positive for the economy?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 30, 2023

U.S. Credit Outlook: Difficulties Ahead
Household spending is expected to slow further, which will weigh on balance growth across consumer finance products.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 27, 2023

Economic Roundup: All Eyes on U.S. Consumers and Inflation
Real personal spending fell in December; the PCE deflator confirmed inflation is moderating.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 27, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 27, 2023
The Fed is on track to hike rates another 25 basis points next week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 27, 2023

Canada Weekly: One More Hike
The Bank of Canada has signaled its intention to pause rate hikes after a 25-basis point raise.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 27, 2023

Our U.S. GDP Estimate: A Bit of an Overshoot
Housing was a negative in the fourth quarter, but we overestimated how much investment was going on elsewhere.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 27, 2023

Credit Market View: Spreads Ease
Odds of the Fed achieving its desired soft-landing have increased.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 27, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S.-China Tensions Could Grow
The likelihood that stress between the two countries increases is rising.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 26, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Economy Ended 2022 Better Than It Started
While GDP growth was strong in the fourth quarter, we expect the economy to struggle in 2023.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 26, 2023

U.S. Risk Matrix: New Year, New Threats
We're wary of the debt limit debate, a potential crypto crash, and the chance of OPEC oil production cuts.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 26, 2023

U.S. Economy Posts Positive End to 2022
GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, capping a much-improved second half of the year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 26, 2023

Why is the U.S. Labor Market so Tight?
In a series of analyses, we'll examine factors constraining labor supply.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 25, 2023

Economic Roundup: Expectations for Q4 U.S. GDP
We anticipate real GDP expanded at a healthy 3.3% annualized rate in the final quarter of 2022.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 25, 2023

Final Thoughts Ahead of Q4 U.S. GDP
We look for healthy 3.3% growth at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 25, 2023

Global Outlook: Glimmers of Hope
Slowing inflation, improving gas markets, and China's comeback bring upside risks for 2023.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 25, 2023

Beyond the Firewall: Handicapping an Emerging Markets Crisis
The most likely genesis of a crisis lies not in a sovereign default but rather in a global overheating scenario.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 24, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Household Wealth on the Way Down
While wealth has fallen substantially, it grew at an unprecedented rate in late 2020 and early 2021.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 24, 2023

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 95—Possiblism and Probablism
What is the path through the looming debt-limit debate?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 24, 2023

U.S. Household Wealth May Fall Further
Balance sheets remain strong.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 24, 2023

Metal Commodities Melting Down? Not Really
Metal prices are expected to decline in 2023, but a faster-than-expected China recovery could keep prices up.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 23, 2023

Economic Roundup: Leading Indicators and Recession Risks
The Conference Board's leading economic index decline isn't as sharp as before previous recessions.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 23, 2023

Debt Limit Brinkmanship (Again)
The U.S. Treasury must use "extraordinary measures" to pay its bills, but those measures will be exhausted by no later than early October.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 23, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Bad News Comes in Threes
Retail sales, industrial production and residential construction weighed heavily on our fourth-quarter estimate of real GDP growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 23, 2023

U.S. Recession Risks Still Flashing Red, but Not so Fast
The Conference Board's leading economic index declined for a 10th straight month in December.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 20, 2023

Economic Roundup: Quiet End to a Busy Week
U.S. housing activity remains muted amid high interest rates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 20, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 20, 2023
Housing data next week will reflect a market that is being crushed by a lack of affordability and still-rising interest rates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 20, 2023

Canada Weekly: The Winning Wage?
The forces driving inflation are also powering uneven wage growth across industries.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 20, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Signs of U.S.-China Détente
Trade tensions between the two countries have cooled.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 20, 2023

Signs Point to a Soft Opening for U.S. Manufacturing
Factory payrolls will be little changed this year as the weakness in goods spending persists.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 19, 2023

Economic Roundup: Ticktock Goes the Debt-Limit Clock
If lawmakers fail to act in time, the federal government could be at risk of a default as early as August.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 19, 2023

Capital Market View: 2022 Corporate Issuance Near Decade Low
Credit spreads have stabilized after narrowing considerably last month.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 19, 2023

Return of the U.S. Debt Limit
If lawmakers do not act, the federal government would be at risk of a default as early as August.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 18, 2023

U.S. Holiday Spending Disappoints
A year from now, these might look like the good old days.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 18, 2023

Economic Roundup: Clear Signs of Slowing U.S. Economy
December data on industrial production and retail sales weigh on fourth-quarter output.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 18, 2023

U.S. High-Frequency GDP Estimate Slides
Disappointing retail sales and IP data lowered our tracking on Q4 growth from 4.3% to 3.6%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 18, 2023

U.S. High Frequency GDP Estimate Slides
Disappointing retail sales and IP data lowered our tracking on Q4 growth from 4.3% to 3.6%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 18, 2023

Supply-Chain Stress Eased Through 2022
Weakening demand for goods will continue to allow inventories to be restocked.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 17, 2023

Economic Roundup: Awaiting More December Data
Wednesday will bring U.S. GDP growth in the fourth quarter into clearer view.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 17, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Meaningful Progress
December's CPI report confirmed an ongoing easing of inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 17, 2023

U.S. Used-Vehicle Price Report: Still Falling
Wholesale price declines will continue into 2023 as new-vehicle production grows.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 17, 2023

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 94—Debt Ceiling
Inflation is clearly softening across the board.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 15, 2023

Holiday Note
Our U.S. offices will be close Monday in observance of the Birthday of Martin Luther King, Jr.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 13, 2023

Canada Weekly: When Will Inflation Normalize?
We preview factors affecting inflation in 2023.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 13, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 13, 2023
The labor market remains resilient but is slowly moderating.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 13, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumers Turn a Corner?
Consumer sentiment beat expectations to start the year, but concerns remain.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 13, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. House Speaker Race Portends Future Issues
Congress will have to address government funding and the debt limit.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 13, 2023

U.S. High-Frequency GDP Estimate Improves...for Now
Softening inflation data boosted our Q4 estimate from 4.1% to 4.3%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 13, 2023

Surprise Shifts in U.S. State Populations
Changes in migration led to a noticeable realignment, but Equifax estimates anticipated them.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 12, 2023

Economic Roundup: An Encouraging Trend
As expected, December's U.S. CPI data showed a further easing of price growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 11, 2023

Economic Roundup: All Eyes on Thursday's CPI Report
Inflation likely continued to cool after peaking in June.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 11, 2023

Final Thoughts Ahead of December's CPI
We expect a headline rise of 0.1% from the month before, a touch higher than consensus.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 11, 2023

U.S. Road to Recession: Perhaps Just a 'Slowcession'
Under almost any scenario, the economy is set to have a difficult year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 11, 2023

Prices Fall, but Housing Remains Overvalued
By 2025, U.S. house prices will be back to their late-2021 level, eliminating an estimated $4 trillion in housing wealth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 10, 2023

Economic Roundup: How the U.S. Baseline Changed in January
Our January baseline contained subtle changes to our monetary policy outlook.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 10, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: A Promising Start
The December employment report brought good news for the Fed's mission to squash inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 09, 2023

Economic Roundup: Global Businesses Remain on Edge
The global economy is struggling but continues to avoid a full-blown recession.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 09, 2023

Surveying the Runway
Recent U.S. data have inspired well-founded optimism for a soft landing in the economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 09, 2023

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 93—Slowcession
Where's the line between recession and no recession?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 06, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 6, 2023
All signs point to inflation continuing to moderate on a year-over-year basis.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 06, 2023

Economic Roundup: Final 2022 U.S. Jobs Report
The U.S. added an extraordinary 4.5 million jobs in 2022, but a slowdown is underway.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 06, 2023

U.S. Jobs Report Cont'd: Much for the Fed to Like
The labor market is undergoing a steady loosening.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 06, 2023

Canada Weekly: Bountiful Harvest
Canadian farm yield is nearing a record high, which could translate to higher export volume.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 06, 2023

U.S. Inflation Tracker: Fed Awaits More Evidence
The central bank will keep communications hawkish.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 06, 2023

Capital Market View: Adieu to 2022
Bond, stock and cryptocurrency investors alike are nursing heavy losses over the past 12 months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 05, 2023

Construction and Trade Move Q4 U.S. GDP Higher
Data released in the new year put our tracking estimate of fourth-quarter growth at 4.1% annualized.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 05, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Job Market Train Still Likely Running
We look for the economy to have added 215,000 jobs on net in December.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 05, 2023

Final Thoughts Ahead of December U.S. Employment
We look for the economy to have added 215,000 jobs on net last month.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 04, 2023

Economic Roundup: Contrasting Signals
The ISM manufacturing index fell again, and job openings remain stubbornly high.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 03, 2023

Economic Roundup: Kicking Off 2023
The U.S. economy will struggle this year, although we expect a recession will be averted.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 03, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: All About Demand
Cooling markets for housing, oil and imported goods are among drivers of the softening outlook.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 03, 2023

Slowcession
The U.S. economy is sure to have a difficult 2023 as the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively push up interest rates to quell the painfully high inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jan 03, 2023

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 92—New Year, New Outlook
The wider consensus now says there will be a recession, but...

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 30, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, December 30, 2022
We expect job gains continued to cool in December with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 30, 2022

Global Outlook: Rough Start for the New Year
Persistent core inflation and an aggressive monetary response are taking a toll on the global expansion.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 29, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Job Market Still a Model of Strength
Jobless claims give little cause for concern ahead of next week's employment report.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 28, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Housing Market Goes Lower and Lower
Pending home sales fell even more than expected in November.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 28, 2022

Inflation Is Changing Under the Hood
U.S. service prices now lead consumer price growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 28, 2022

U.S. Credit Outlook: A Look Back
Overly aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve is the main threat to lending in the months ahead.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 27, 2022

Economic Roundup: Global Businesses Anxious at Year's End
Concerns surrounding the economic and geopolitical environment continue to mount.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 27, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: You're a Mean One, Mr. Housing Market
Mortgage rates have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, leaving buyers less willing and able to purchase new and existing homes.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 27, 2022

Trade and Inventories Brighten Our U.S.GDP Estimate
Our tracker is showing growth at 1.3% in the final quarter of 2022.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 27, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 91—Ho-Hum Savings
Have low-income households already burned through pandemic savings?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 27, 2022

U.S. Employment Outlook: It's Not Your Father's Labor Market
A descent into recession if the Fed fails to achieve a soft landing is the greatest threat facing the labor market over the next year.

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