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 NEWS: BRAD IDEAS
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   NEWS: BRAD IDEAS
Brad Ideas
Jul 13, 2020

The NYT's Seen A "Future Without Cars" But What About 21st Century Cars?
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesLast week the NYT ran an piece on imagining Manhattan as a "city without cars." Definitely it would be more pleasant, but people also very much want personal transportation, and so closing or narrowing all the streets may not present a great solution and not beyond New York in any event. The problem is that planners still think about 20th century cars, with all their problems and downsides and without the new abilities the 21st century offers for traffic management using smartphones, self-driving and more.

I explore where we can really go in a city with the 21st century car in The future without cars changes with 21st century cars



Brad Ideas
Jul 09, 2020

Slower chargers (2KW and 50KW) might be better for EVs than 7KW and 250KW
Topic: Going GreenTransportationTags: forbesIn EV charging, there's a big contest to see who can be the fastest, with 250KW and 350KW chargers competing with Tesla's superchargers. But charge-really-fast is "gasoline" thinking and it's much more expensive. For the same money, for example, a corporate parking lot would be better served with 40 Level 1 (2KW) chargers and 4 Level 2 (7KW) than 15 Level 2. And a new generation of cheaper 50KW chargers in places we stop for an hour could make more sense than 250kw ones.

Read the analysis in my article on Forbes.com at The future of EV charging may be at 50kw



Brad Ideas
Jul 04, 2020

The wonder of "Hamilton" and the future of the filmed musical
Topic: MediaReviewfigure class=blogpic

Miranda in a close-up from Hamilton that perhaps shouldn't happen

Lin-Manuel Miranda's "Hamilton" is surely the greatest musical of the 21st century, and one of the best of all time. Michelle Obama gave it even greater praise than that. Miranda may not quite reach the level, but he deserves comparisons to Shakespeare -- presuming Shakespeare also set his plays to music he wrote and arranged, and played the lead role. While every aspect of the creation shines, it is as a lyricist that Miranda is unmatched in this history of the musical theatre.

I experienced Hamilton first by several listens of the cast album, then live on stage (which remains hard to do) and on Friday in the release of the Hamilton stage-movie on Disney Plus. While I still recommend this movie wholeheartedly, it disappointed me moderately in some of its technology, decisions and imperfections.

The big question revolves around the question of how you film a play. In the earliest days of cinema, movies were made by just filming a play with a fixed camera. Soon, they switched to shooting different angles and scenes, with close-ups and multiple takes and the way we make movies today. Movies of stage performances are more rarely done, but they are done in a way that loses the stage experience, because older tech did not have th

Brad Ideas
Jun 26, 2020

Amazon agrees to buy Zoox
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesRumoured for a few weeks, Amazon has now announced it will buy Zoox. The rumoured price is just $1.2B -- a major down-round for Zoox, but still a large investment for Amazon. Amaon says they plan to continue Zoox's robotaxi vision, but I have to suspect they will also do robotic delivery.

The implications are huge. The robotaxi business is bigger than Amazon's retail business. And making their logistics business more robotic -- both long haul and local delivery -- should scare the others involved in traditional retail and delivery.

Read my updated analysis at Amazon buys Zoox



Brad Ideas
Jun 25, 2020

Mercedes & BMW drop partnership and other Robocar News of the week
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesMany people may not have been aware that Mercedes and BMW planned to pool their self-driving efforts, which made sense as they were pulling back from trying to win that race. Now that deal is off and other deals are on. Read about that, along with news in LIDAR, testing and acquisitions in this Forbes site article:

Robocar News Roundup



Brad Ideas
Jun 25, 2020

Tesla scores dead last in JD Power new car survey -- because it's a computer
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesFans of Teslas were surprised to see the brand score dead last in JD Power's new survey of the number of problems people had with their cars.

The biggest reason, perhaps, is that a Tesla is more a computer than a car. And how many computers have you bought that didn't have many software and configuration problems?

Read it in JD Power Report Scores Tesla a Dismal Last



Brad Ideas
Jun 18, 2020

Why you need to restrict your freedom and stay at home
Topic: GovernanceHealthProtesters declare it's about tyranny vs. freedom.

As the lockdown wears on, people are bristling and trying to wonder why they should stay home. After all, aren't virus deaths on the decline? Isn't the risk very low for younger people, and from things like outdoor activities? Aren't people suffering great economic harm? Don't we have a free society where people have the right to decide for themselves what risks they want to take?

I have made a Covid song parody (a popular pastime) about the need to stay at home.

All these are true, but...

You're not staying at home to protect yourself. It's to protect others by not letting yourself be a virus-breeding vector Yes, the odds of death for young people are low enough that we wouldn't lock down the economy to prevent it. The problem is, while you do have the right to take on risks for yourself (or more questionably, for your family and house-mates) you don't have the right to put others at risk. Every risky activity increases the viruses chances to breed, and to move through you to other people. This is an epide

Brad Ideas
Jun 15, 2020

What we knew we should have done about Covid, and we didn't
Topic: GovernanceHealth Why did it take so long to figure out whether to wear masks?

3 months into lockdown, and more into the pandemic, the front page article in the San Jose Merc described 8 things we got wrong at first Some of the list is right, and a few of them are dangerously wrong, but I want to focus on something else, namely the things we got wrong even though we (or at least many of us) knew better. Things we have little excuse for getting wrong, particularly because others got them right.

Not putting immense effort into testing The most obvious and deadly error was not putting all effort into producing tests and distributing them as widely as possible as quickly as possible. Other countries cut off their outbreaks quickly doing this. Some of the things that went wrong were:

At first, all testing had to be done at the CDC. Almost no tests were done. Even after that ended, tests were rare enough that only people who met a very high bar -- contact with people from Wuhan, strong symptoms got tests. The lack of testing caused both under-reporting of extant cases, and a poor estimate of the case fatality rate. Even later, as better tests were dev

Brad Ideas
Jun 09, 2020

IIHS is wrong in claim that only 1/3rd of crashes can be prevented
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesThe IIHS (Insurance Institute) released a study claiming that in spite of claims that self-driving cars could prevent 90% of accidents (the ones where the driver is at fault) the number was only 1/3rd, namely the perception errors and impairment cases. I am not sure they could have got it more wrong, and outline this in a new Forbes.com article:

IIHS is wrong in claim that only 1/3rd of crashes can be prevented



Brad Ideas
Jun 02, 2020

Tesla Autopilot slams into truck; this one is strange
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesSo, yesterday in Taiwan a Tesla, claimed to be on Autopilot, smashed in broad daylight on a mostly empty road into a truck lying on its side, almost hitting the driver standing in front of it. While Tesla Autopilot is just driver assist, and not meant to catch everything, it's not great to miss a giant truck and a human. I explore why in my new Forbes site article found in at



Brad Ideas
May 31, 2020

Another Zoom Tank on Connected Car issues Tuesday, 11am PDT/2pm EDT
Topic: AnnouncementsRobocars

Coming up Tuesday 11am PDT, another self-driving car debate, this time on the issues around "connected" cars and the politics and technology of them. Those of you who have read my essay "The disconnected car" will know my views. Again, I'll be one of the sharks that tears into the arguments and proposals. It's free, and we get a pretty decent audience of 200-300 (which means, in spite of my last post, they do use Webinar mode but try to encourage audience to raise hand and come in.)

Register at The zoom tank page



Brad Ideas
May 29, 2020

Tricks for using Zoom to have a more human connection in large meetings
Topic: MediaTechnologyTags: forbes Allison hosting a Foresight Hivemind the way I set it up to see everything at once.

We're all doing tons of Zoom events and conferences, though often in the terrible "Webinar" mode that isolates the speakers from the audience, and the audience from each other. Zoom has some hidden tricks you can use to avoid Webinar and have a much better experience -- especially if your computer has two monitors, even though it doesn't strictly need them both. I have written up a guide on how to do it on Forbes' site, read:

Your Guide To Feeling A Human Connection With The Group In Zoom Meetings



Brad Ideas
May 27, 2020

Zoox saga continues -- Amazon may be in neogitations
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesI reported last week about Zoox shopping for a buyer. Now reports have surfaced that Amazon is in negotiations. It's a strange matchup but would still have big consequences. A big push into self-driving by Amazon could upend logistics and retail, but Zoox's efforts at a vehicle custom designed for taxi service might be wasted.

Read about it on Forbes.com at Match and Mismatch of Amazon buying Zoox



Brad Ideas
May 21, 2020

MobilEye reaffirms prediction of robotaxi service by 2022
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesIn a year when several other companies have slowed development and plans for full robocars, MobilEye's CEO this week indicated they were on track to deploy Robotaxi service in Israel in early 2022, and will follow on with France, Korea and China.

Analysis is at MobilEye reaffirms prediction of robotaxi service by 2022



Brad Ideas
May 19, 2020

Bitcoin reward cut in half again, with much less effect than one should expect
Topic: TechnologyTags: bitcoin Chart of the last year of Bitcoin hashrate

On May 11, a major event took place in the bitcoin world, yet it had no negative effect on the price of the coin and much less effect on mining than it would seem it should. This event is known as the "halving," and it means the reward for mining bitcoins was suddenly cut in half.

This happens about every 4 years, and is the reason that the total number of bitcoins mined in the future, and thus the lifetime supply, is constrained. It was designed in from the start to attain this goal.

To understand what this is all about, you do need to understand some of the complexities of bitcoin mining. Bitcoin transactions are recorded into the immutable ledger that is known as the "blockchain" by machines (and their owners) called miners. These miners need to be super-high-performance computing hardware, and they are expensive to buy and they need a lot of electricity to run.

If you run one, spending that money, then you (or rather the pool of fellow miners you join) will win at mining a block with some predictable regularity. Each time your group mines a block, it g

Brad Ideas
May 17, 2020

Monday 2pm EDT, Zoom Tank on future of Public Roadway Transit
Topic: RobocarsI didn't pick the topic, in spite of having written a bunch on in yesterday, but tomorrow we will do another debate in our "Zoom Tank" on the topic of the good and bad news for roadway public transit.

The main debaters are Jarrett Walker from Human Transit, and Randal O'Toole, the "antiplanner" from Cato Institute who is always full of amazing data.

After the short debate, the four sharks, including yours truly, tear into the debaters and their arguments, and then the audience has a go.

Pre-register at Zoom Tank and there should also be a link available to watch the stream on YouTube without participating.



Brad Ideas
May 15, 2020

EasyMile develops plan to get back in operation using seatbelts. But is the whole idea of transit stops the mistake?
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesEarlier I wrote about how EasyMile had to stop operations after a sudden stop in one of their vehicles gave minor injuries to a passenger.

Today they announced their plan to resume operations. It includes seatbelts and education. It's a start, but I wonder if the whole idea of "stops" is the problem. Stops are inherent in the 20th century thinking that surrounds public transit. Big vehicles need to make lots of stops picking up and dropping off passengers. But that's a problem if you expect the vehicle not to start until everybody has their seatbelt on!

Smaller vehicles can do public transportation with very few intermediate stops. They were already the best choice for efficiency, comfort, speed and more, but it turns out they are the right choice for safety.

Read my new Forbes site article at EasyMile adds seatbelts to get back in operation



Brad Ideas
May 13, 2020

Waymo and others resume robocar testing
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesEverybody shut down testing during the Covid crisis. It's not over but now Waymo and others are getting back on the road, testing vehicles with nobody inside, with one safety driver, and sometimes with two. Yes, delivery and rides are essential services, but what are the issues around this?

Read some thoughts at Forbes's site in Waymo and others resume testing



Brad Ideas
May 08, 2020

Custom robocar startup Zoox shops for a buyer
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesI've known Zoox since before it began and their vision has always been bold. In a possible hiccup, the downturn has led them to shop around for a potential buyer if they can't get more investment.

I analyse what this means in my story Zoos searches for a buyer on the Forbes site.



Brad Ideas
May 07, 2020

Justifying lockdowns from a standpoint of defending individual rights
Topic: GovernanceHealth Entrance of new Apple Computer HQ, one of the world's largest office buildings, at 5pm

Many people opposed to lockdowns feel they are an improper state interference with our liberty. Possibly an unconstitutional one, particularly in the case of religious gatherings.

For people who believe in a strong state, the lockdowns don't need much justification. For those who believe in limited government, it's a harder question.

Even the most libertarian people tend to feel the state has a legitimate role in protecting the lives and safety of the people. It has a monopoly on force, operating police, courts and the military to protect people, which is its legitimate role.

Here I explore some theories of lockdown justification based on principles of individual rights and small government.

If you breed and foster viruses, you are a threat A person with an infectious fatal disease is a dangerous threat. They expose those they come into contact with to great, even mortal risk. Society lets people expose others to risks, but we don't tend to accept high mortal risk. We have a right to defend ourselves against it, or in particular to expect the government to act in our defence.

The personal right to life is the first of the individual rights, and you don't have the right

Brad Ideas
May 04, 2020

Zoox shows an hour live driving video, impressive and unimpressive
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesZoox is the $1B funded startup trying to build a radical design self-driving car. Last week they released a video of an hour long drive through Las Vegas, going through pick-up zones in hotels and the airport. The car does a number of impressive things, but at the same time, showing these things and an hour of driving are only the tip of the iceberg of what you need to do, making the video unimpressive at the same time.

In this new article, I go into what goes on in the video, and what it means.

Read Zoox shows an hour live driving video, impressive and unimpressive



Brad Ideas
Apr 30, 2020

Would you cruise across the Atlantic rather than fly?
Topic: Air TravelTags: forbesReady to get on a 10 hour overseas flight, wearing an N95 mask, sharing bathrooms, in the middle seat between two coughing passengers? I didn't think so. With all the idle cruise ships out there, would you sail across the ocean like your grandparents in a private cabin if they followed good virus procedure? 4 days stuck in a room (kinda like now) to prove that your virus test is accurate to the country you're heading to.

I discuss the potential in my new Forbes site article Will you fly across the ocean or will the transatlantic cruise return?



Brad Ideas
Apr 28, 2020

Will Covid-19 sound the death knell for old school public transit?
Topic: FuturismRobocarsTags: forbes Ready to get into a packed Tokyo subway car soon?

Current public transit is based on century-old ideas, and was already under threat from 21st century technology. Now, in the Covid-19 era, we have to wonder how long it will be before people are willing to pack tightly on crowded buses and subways -- the only thing that gave transit any shot at being efficient. Will the virus sound the death knell for old-school public transit?

I discuss this in a new Forbes site article at Will Covid-19 sound the death knell for old school public transit?



Brad Ideas
Apr 22, 2020

Tesla "reverse summon" won't be very exciting, but the eventual consequences are
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesLast year Tesla released "smart summon" which let you (very slowly) call your car to you from across a parking lot. It was cute but a bit of a dud, as it's not just very useful. Now Elon Musk promises "reverse summon" that will valet park your car for you. But if you have to watch it, it's not going to be very useful either.

Eventually, though, we'll get a robotic valet park that works without supervision. That will be very useful, allowing cheaper parking and better charging. Even today, the basic summon could allow slightly denser parking for cars that have it.

Read about this in my new Forbes site article at Tesla auto-park might someday be better than useless



Brad Ideas
Apr 22, 2020

Online self-driving debate and lively panel (including me) Apr 27, 11am PDT
Topic: Announcements

Next Monday, we will be doing an online version of a popular panel session we have done every year at the "Automated Vehicle Summit" -- the oldest self-driving car conference.

In this session we have a speaker propose a controversial idea, and then, a bit like a "shark tank" our panel (myself included) tear into the concepts and discuss them, and the audience asks questions too.

This time we're going to start off with a debate on whether self-driving cars will be the best of times or worst of times. It features Princeton professor Alain Kornhauser (normally one of the Sharks) and Sven Beiker, a silicon valley consultant.

The shark panel includes myself, VC Jim Scheinman, TRB and TRI top researcher Jane Lappin and Michael Sena of "The Dispatcher" newsletter, moderated by Richard Mudge.

It should be lively and fun, and interactive -- and it's free with no risk of Covid-19.

Go to Zoom Tank to learn more and sign up.

I didn't pick the use of Driverless in the title -- Alain loves that term, though he uses it in a different way from everybody else, to mean "more than self-driving."



Brad Ideas
Apr 20, 2020

Car Companies Are Making Ventilators, But Ventilator Companies, Hackers And CPAP Companies Are Working Harder
Topic: HealthTransportationTags: forbesIf you read my earlier report on efforts to convert CPAP machines into ventilators with new firmwware](https://ideas.4brad.com/creating-plan-reprogram-smart-cpap-machines-become-emergency-ventilators) the good news is that the feared massive ventilator shortage seems (for now) to have been avoided.

I got a chance to talk with the CMO of ResMed, one of the world's leading CPAP companies, which also makes ventilators, to get their take on the shortage and efforts to convert their machines for this purpose. They get asked this hundreds of times a day, he says, but so far the demand has not been there from hospitals, and so they have kept their priority on their more advanced machines.

Read Car Companies Are Making Ventilators, But Ventilator Companies, Hackers And CPAP Companies Are Working Harder



Brad Ideas
Apr 17, 2020

Even if 2020 hindsight reveals the lockdown wasn't right, it was still the right choice at the time
Topic: HealthPolitics Highway 280 near Apple is not normally like this

A frequent question I've seen these days is, "Is the lockdown worse than the disease?" The lockdowns are hugely expensive, and there are even many arguments that they will also result in large numbers of deaths. Some even advance that the death toll of the lockdowns will be higher than the toll of the virus. The economic cost is high and not evenly distributed. In addition, other diseases with similar death-tolls are survived without lockdowns.

Some also speculate that the virus will turn out to be not as fatal as predicted, or more or less virulent.

There's lots of debate on these points, but I want to sidestep that, and stipulate, for the purpose of argument, that this theory is correct. Let's presume that we learn, when it all winds down, that the lockdown was a big mistake.

The question becomes, was it a mistake to do them back in March, when we knew less than we know today? It might be possible for the lockdowns become wrong in hindsight, but nonetheless still correct, because you have to examine the question of decision making with imperfect information.

In February and March, we had many conflicting pieces of information. We saw what happened in China, and had some data from cruise ships. Italy's horror was

Brad Ideas
Apr 14, 2020

Does pseduo-LIDAR help Tesla or its competitors more?
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesTesla doesn't want to use LIDAR. So they are hoping for success in a technique known as pseudo-LIDAR, where you train neural networks to look at images and calculate the distance to everything in the scene, as though you had a LIDAR. It's not here yet, but an interesting question is, should this succeed, is it better for Tesla or for their LIDAR using competitors who already have tons of experience using 3D point clouds?

Read about that at Does pseduo-LIDAR help Tesla or its competitors more?



Brad Ideas
Apr 13, 2020

How do Robotaxis deal with a pandemic?
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesUber, Lyft, Scooters and Transit have all cratered in ridership. Will people be more likely to ride in self-driving taxis if they had them during a pandemic crisis? I discuss some of the Covid-19 issues around robotaxis in this new article.

It's found at Can robotaxis survive a pandemic?



Brad Ideas
Apr 07, 2020

What happens after lockdowns diminish Covid-19? What next?
Topic: ObservationsPrivacyTechnology Empty shelves during the Covid-19 panic We're all sitting in lockdown in much of the world. Lockdown should reduce the famous R0 number for the virus to less than one -- which means that each patient who gets it infects less than one person. An R0 of more than 1 means a virus spreads. More than 2 means it spreads like wildfire. Less than one means it dies out. Much less than one means it dies out fast. That's what they did in Wuhan.

There's a problem not being spoken of as much, namely what happens then. Unless you wipe out the disease completely in a region, once you end the lockdown measures, it will come back, and you need to lockdown again. This cycle of waves has been called "The hammer and the dance" and it's better than the horror of unchecked growth, but it's a very long slog.

If you can wipe it out completely in a town, you can open up again, but not to the outside world. You need to build a border around your virus-free-zone and don't allow anybody in without highly accurate testing and isolation. If your region is an island or country, this may be doable. Even so, air travel becomes highly minimal until the vaccine.

Completely wiping it out is hard, though

Brad Ideas
Apr 03, 2020

Covid deaths could change election results: Do more Republican voters die than Democrats?
Topic: PoliticsThe projected deaths for Covid-19 in the USA are horrific -- 100,000 to 240,000. Let's hope it's not nearly that bad, but those numbers are enough that they actually could alter the election. Not simply because Covid-19 will be the top issue in the election, but because voters will die.

While right now most deaths are in "blue states" like New York, California and the like, it won't affect their votes. As always, it revolves around the swing states: FL, PA, MI, NC, WI, AZ. Especially Florida and Pennyslvania. By definition these states have evenly balanced numbers of Trump supporters and Biden supporters.

Covid-19 overwhelmingly kills those over 65. It kills a few younger people but far fewer. Older people vote much more than younger people. Seniors favoured Trump 52% to 45% in 2016, Twentysomethings favoured Clinton 55% to 36%.

Covid-19 also kills 50% more men than women. Men favoured Trump 52 to 41 in 2016, women favoured Clinton 54 to 41.

There is speculation Covid will strike lower income people more for a variety of reasons. This is as yet unproven, but they favoured Clinton 53 to 41, while those over $50K in income slightly favoured Trump, 48 to 47. Lower income people are less able to self-isolate and give up work and have less health care access.

At present, Covid-19 is more present in cities. It is unknown if this will persist as it spreads. In theory it should not, but since it began in cities, and slows down after lockdown, it might stay mostly in cities. Urban voters favour Democrats over GOP by

Brad Ideas
Apr 02, 2020

Starsky Robotics is very open about why their robotruck company died
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesRecently, Stefan Seltz-Axmacher, the founder of Starsky Robotics -- a startup doing self-driving and remove-driven transport trucks that I advised before they started going -- wrote a detailed and complex blog post about why he feels his company had to shut down. He goes into several issues, including failures of Deep Learning to meet hype, VC desires, strangeness of the trucking industry and lack of love for safety.

In my new article for the Forbes site, I dig into those reasons and whether he's right that nobody else will succeed soon, either.

Read Starsky Robotics Shuts Down And Worries Everybody Else Will Also Fail In Robotic Trucks.



Brad Ideas
Mar 31, 2020

Guide to having a good ZOOM video meeting
Topic: InternetTechnologyTelecom A Zoom 9 person meeting with smiling attractive people professionally lit and not wearing headsets.

People are doing huge amounts of videoconferencing during the Covid crisis. The tools keep improving, but there's a great deal that individual participants can do to make the meetings better. They take some effort but it's worth it.

TL;DR: Be a participant, not a lurker, and wear a headset

Be a participant, not a lurker In the past, you would have driven or flown to a meeting and given most of your attention while in the meeting or session. Don't take the online meeting as an excuse to be barely there.

Turn on your video, even just to watch. Let people see you. Yes, this takes bandwidth. Yes, it's harder for you to goof off without people noticing. That's part of the point. Today, people are going all day without seeing anybody. Don't let that happen.

Zoom has two modes, which you toggle with a button in the upper right corner. "Speaker view" shows the current speaker large, and 4-5 others at the top. It's good to get a closer look at the speaker but it's less social.

The other mode, "Gallery View" will show you up to 20 other participants. Even when

Brad Ideas
Mar 25, 2020

ExoWorld conference on the future of the world with rapidly changing technology comes April 14-16
Topic: AnnouncementsGoing GreenHealthInternetRobocarsTechnologyTransportation

Pretty much every conference around the globe has vanished, so a group of colleagues is putting on a new virtual conference starting April 14 on the world's future with the exponential technologies (Computing, Digital Bio, Energy, Medicine and much more.) It includes the great team of speakers I worked with regularly at Singularity University, and a star-studded array of great speakers and attendees. The virtual conference software will allow some approximation of "hallway" conversations and breakouts as well. I will be speaking on the future of mobility and cities, expanding from robocars to the sidewalks, scooters and flying.

We'll cover not just that but AI, medicine (including virus updates,) digital biology, digital manufacturing, crime and security, neuroscience, governance, energy and much more with over 100 speakers, including folks like former President of Mexico Vicente Fox

Brad Ideas
Mar 23, 2020

Creating a plan to reprogram smart CPAP machines to become emergency ventilators
NOTE: This is a draft plan, and many areas of it are still being researched and confirmed. It may not work at all.

This $600 CPAP machine has a computer controlled blower, humidifier, data connection and other ingredients, if given new firmware, of creating a ventilator.

As I'm sure, you've heard about the need that many Covid-19 patients have for ventilators which keep them breathing when their lungs fail, as they do during the "ARDS" (acute respiratory distress syndrome) phase of Covid-19 which is the thing that kills you. The problem is that there are at most around 200,000 ventilators (including tapping older models sitting in storage, a government strategic reserve and a military reserve.) It is feared that as many as 900,000 could be needed if the worst projections are true. Around the world, many more.

Companies that make ventilators are ramping up manufacturing as fast as they can. It still won't be enough. That's even true if one applies a special technique devised years ago to put 2, 4 and even 9 patients on the same machine, if the patients can be matched so they need the same pressures, airflow and oxygen. This technique was tested under fire during the Las Vegas massacre and saved hundreds of lives, but it's still only barely tested for something like this -- ARDS patients may need to be on the ventilator for up to a month, if they live.

One tragedy for the ventilator makers -- if they are able to produce hundreds of thousands of their FDA approved modern ventilators, they will save many lives -- but then no hospital, anywhere in the world, will need to buy a new ventilator f

Brad Ideas
Mar 22, 2020

Will the Covid crisis sink Trump?
Topic: PoliticsIn some discussion, I have seen it become almost an assumption that the economic meltdown and the Covid crisis will erode confidence in the President and settle the election, presuming things continue to November as they likely will. Historical patterns suggest that Presidents with good economies and stock markets get elected, those without them don't. We're seeing economic meltdown, high unemployment, fear and more.

However, we don't see this in the data yet. While I normally advise you to disregard all national polls (and I still do -- Clinton has great national poll numbers in 2016 after all) you can look at wide trends in them. I plotted all Biden vs. Trump polls from pollsters rated A/B or better on 538.



Here we see that Biden's margins over Trump, while always positive, have not been improving and possibly are in decline, including into March when we start seeing the effect of the crisis. Presidential Approval polls, also national and thus low value, show only a slight decline of about 0.7% in March. A large fraction of polled voters state they approve of how well Trump is handling the virus crisis.

As always, we must look to swing state polls for the real data, though again they only talk about what happens if the election is held today. And for that,

Brad Ideas
Mar 19, 2020

Delivery robots could have saved the day if the virus had come a bit later
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes

I've been involved with delivery robots for a long time, and on my walk through empty streets yesterday, I noticed a certain irony. We have a desperate need for more delivery capacity, especially without humans handling packages, and teams have been working hard to make deliverbots safe enough to drive on our streets.

Now, when we need them, our streets are almost empty, and the robots could be safe, but there was no reason to aim for that goal, and they are not yet available at scale.

I muse some more about this in my new article at Delivery robots could have saved the day if the virus had come a bit later on Forbes.com



Brad Ideas
Mar 18, 2020

A triple-tie that results in President Pelosi on Jan 20 is not impossible -- plus cancelling elections
Topic: Politics Of course, sometimes a tie is resolved in the courts, not congress

It is possible if, among the swing states, Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and the Nebraska 2nd (Omaha), while Biden wins Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin. This is not one of the most likely scenarios, because Arizona and Wisconsin are currently more on Trump's side than Biden's, but it's possible.

This would result in a tie, or rather, no candidate getting a majority. That means the newly elected 117th House picks between them, and the Senate picks the VP, in what is called a Contingent Election.

The House votes by state, not by member. 26 state delegations are needed to win. Right now Republicans control 26 house delegations, and 2 are tied, and 22 are Democratic. That House would elect Trump. But if any weakly red delegation such as Florida or Wisconsin were to flip blue in the new congress, the house would deadlock.

It doesn't say in the constitution how a state decides its vote -- the decision is to be made immediately, though. One presumes the members of the state delegation themselves hold a sub vote -- more on that below.

If there is a deadlock, the new VP becomes acting President until the House comes to a decision. Who is the

Brad Ideas
Mar 16, 2020

Michigan now "Swing" -- swing polls spreadsheet updated
Topic: Politics 270towin.com maintains a map of which states analysts think are safe or swing.

I have updated my spreadsheet showing the Trump vs. Biden and Trump vs. Sanders polls in the five -- now six swing states. These polls, particularly Trump vs Biden, are the only polls that you should pay attention to. National polls are highly misleading. There are only 538 people who vote in a Presidential election, and that must never be forgotten.

The picture remains mixed, particularly when you factor in how much Trump surprised compared to the polls in 2016. I believe there is as much as 5 points of advantage for Trump not shown in the polls, so to be comfortable of Trump losing, you want him down by that much. All the swing states show mixed results -- that's why they are called swing states.

At present, Democrats must capture 38 votes from the swing states. In practice that means, of the six swing states:

Florida plus any of the other five, or Almost any 3 of the other five (AZ WI NC fails, and AZ NC MI wins only if Omaha, Nebraska's second, is won.) Unfortunately, Florida does not currently look great. Here's my rough judgment:

Florida: Low Pennsylvania: Decent chance for Bide

Brad Ideas
Mar 13, 2020

Home delivery when shopping stops in a virus shutdown
Topic: TransportationTags: forbesIf we shut down public areas, we're going to need a lot of online shopping and home delivery. How can we do that in a virus-infected world? Here's some plans for how to make it happen even with gig workers (who aren't driving Uber and Lyft much any more.)

I outline some of the ways to make it work in this Forbes.com article.



Brad Ideas
Mar 11, 2020

Could a working health care system be built by industry under the threat of the current industry's destruction?
Topic: PoliticsTechnology Making any phone or tablet able to read the vital signs is the sort of innovation that could bring down healthcare costs

Several former Democratic contenders have promoted single payer health care under the name "Medicare for All." While I'm not old enough for Medicare, I have lived for several decades under the Canadian system and several decades under the U.S. system. In addition, I spend 2-3 months/year in Europe and have had to make access as a tourist to the systems in the UK, Germany and France. The attraction of the single payer systems, with their much lower costs per citizen and equal or superior health outcome scores, are hard to resist. At the same time, many voters are concerned at having a government agency run their health care, or elimination of the free market system which works so well in so many areas. The current US system is deeply broken, and does not much resemble a free market system, if it ever did. So the political push for a single payer system has become stronger.

It's not going to happen soon. Biden has won the nomination (though only Sanders seems not to know it), and even if he somehow won, most analysts expect it's pretty unlikely the Democrats would win control of the Senate in 2020. If they do win control of the White House, the historic

Brad Ideas
Mar 08, 2020

LAX pushes Uber pickups to a remote lot. It's the wrong direction
Topic: Air TravelAs LAX and other airports push ride-hail to remote lots (which you have to take a shuttle to in the case of LAX-it) I examine why that's a crazy decision in my new article at Forbes.com. In the article I also touch on how we can eventually move to being picked up, not at the curb, but at the plane, in an airport with lots of robocar pods.

LAX won't let Uber pick you up at the curb. It should be at your plane

In the article I also state that there are much better ways to manage pickup that could eliminate congestion even in the smartphone world. Below is a sidebar you can read after reading the main article on the details of that.

Sidebar on managing airport pick-up (and drop-off) Ideally you do this not with a line of cars, but a long row of perpendicular, rather than parallel stopping spots. Cars only enter the airport when such spots are free, and immediately drive and stop in a free spot or even a spot they were assigned which their phone speaks and displays to them.

Cars coming in use an app or website (for Uber drivers it is of course their Uber app) as do passengers. On approach to their desired terminal they will be told to either come in or go to the holding lot until they get the word to come in. Once they come in, there will be an open spot for them to drive to directly, with no congestion. If they are picking up a passenger, the passe

Brad Ideas
Mar 03, 2020

Summary of swing state poll results, Democrat vs. Trump
Topic: PoliticsI have built a spreadsheet summarizing the recent poll results in head to head polls of a Democratic candidate and President Trump. These are the only polls that matter. Do not look at or cite national polls. Results and pollster quality ratings come via 538.

I have added some subjective content. Because of my handicap estimates I have highlighted results where the candidate has a 5 point advantage over Trump, and thus a win becomes more probable. If they are even or worse I score a loss as highly risky and use a red number.

Here is the spreadsheet



Brad Ideas
Mar 03, 2020

EasyMile Self-Driving Shuttle Banned After Sudden Stop Hurts Passenger — Are Seatbelts Needed?
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesAn EasyMile made a sudden stop from 7mph and a seated passenger fell off her seat to minor injuries. Now NHTSA has ordered EasyMile to stop testing with passengers.

Transit shuttles don't usually have seatbelts, but maybe EasyMile needs them during the testing phase. But can it ever take them out?

Read the issues in my new article on Forbes.com at EasyMile Self-Driving Shuttle Banned After Sudden Stop Hurts Passenger — Are Seatbelts Needed?



Brad Ideas
Mar 02, 2020

Nobody wins the GoFly Prize, but personal flight is coming
Topic: FuturismTags: forbesThis weekend I went to the finals of the GoFly prize, a Boeing sponsored contest for personal VTOL flying machines. Sadly, nobody was able to build one that could meet all the requirements in the rules, and only a few of the contestants could even fly. That was disappointing, but then so was the first Darpa Grand Challenge.

My summary of the demo day is in my new Forbes article at https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/03/02/nobody-wins-gofly-prize-but-personal-flight-is-coming/



Brad Ideas
Feb 28, 2020

Internet, AR, genomic and robotic technologies could make a pandemic much less disasterous
Topic: HealthInternetRobocars These masks don't help the uninfected very much, except stopping you from touching your face.

Back in 2005 during the H5N1 flu, I outlined a number of potential technological solutions to dealing with urban shutdowns due to an epidemic. Sad to say, we don't seem to have done them. We may try some of them in the next (or current) epidemic but some of them needed some simple planning.

A summary of the plans included:

*Plans for much more telecommuting and videoconferencing to facilitate working from home *Plans for video services (using spare TV channels and internet) to allow teachers to convene and teach class to students staying at home. * Plans to improve online shopping, including optimized grocery delivery for those sheltering at home, using delivery people with proper training, or who have received prioritized vaccines, or who are recovered victims with immunity. *In general, making the best use of recovered victims with immunity at all critical infrastructure.

At the time, the internet was not as widespread. I underestimated how quickly small amounts of vaccine can be generated -- it is possible to generate them, but takes many months to test them for

Brad Ideas
Feb 27, 2020

California Disengagement Reports aren't too engaging
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesThe California robocar disengagement reports are out. And everybody is now pointing out that they're not very useful because everybody uses different methods. So I have an article about what we do learn from the data, little as it is.

Read California Disengagement Reports aren't too engaging at Forbes.com



Brad Ideas
Feb 26, 2020

NTSB comes down hard on Tesla, Driver Monitoring, AEB
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesYesterday's NTSB hearings contained much stronger criticism of Tesla Autopilot than ever before. In particular the NTSB made recommendations:

To Tesla: Improve emergency braking to detect more stationary objects To Tesla: Improve driver monitoring to prevent driver distraction To Tesla: Don't permit Autopilot to be used on unapproved roads To Apple/Google: Lock phones while driving to forbid distracting apps To NHTSA: Start making regulations to force the above You can read my analysis of their findings in my new Forbes article at NTSB Report On Tesla Autopilot Fatality Comes Down Hard On Tesla, Driver Monitoring And Distraction



Brad Ideas
Feb 24, 2020

Researchers fool an old Tesla into misreading a speed limit sign; that fools the public into panic
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesMany of the media were keen to pick up on a report from McAfee researchers about how they were able to simply modify a speed limit sign to cause the MobilEye in old Teslas to misread it and speed up. We get spooked when AI software acts like an idiot. But in reality, this isn't the sort of attack that is likely to be done in the wild, and it's also unlikely to cause any danger.

I outline the reasons in this new Forbes site article at Exaggerated Stories About Simple Sign Modifications Fooling Old Teslas Fool Humans Into Panic



Brad Ideas
Feb 19, 2020

Panorama of Silicon Valley from Mt. Umunhum and a story of fraud and corruption
Topic: GovernancePhotographyRecently, we had a day of extremely clear air here in Silicon Valley, so we made our first trip up to Mount Umunhum, the high peak to the south of San Jose, and the former site of a SAGE radar station. Recently it was opened to the public. Close as it seems, it's an hour drive, but fun in the Tesla.

Up there I shot a high resolution panorama of the whole South Bay. I have shot many panoramas of the Bay Area so I add this one to the list.



Click on the thumbnail for a "zoom" viewer, then in the viewer click full screen, and wander around using your scroll wheel to zoom and your arrow keys or mouse.

I was reminded at the top of the campaign by my friend Les Earnest, who worked on Sage, to make it a monument to government waste. Sage cost the taxpayaers an immense amount of money, and never worked, and they knew it didn't work.

He tells the story in his essay here.

His story opens up an interesting question. After spending billions to detect Soviet bombers, they "decided" that the fact that it doesn't work should be classified. This silenced critics, but in theory, it was done because the real purpose of such a system is

Brad Ideas
Feb 18, 2020

$16 billion spending on robocars is a drop in the bucket compared to the trillions to be made
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesRecent coverage summed up robocar spending as about $16 billion to-date. Many have wondered how this can be worth it, since nobody is shipping. When you look at other analysis of how much the winners stand to gain, it's a drop in the bucket. I analyse the numbers in a new article on the Forbes site:

Companies Have Spent Over $16B On Robocars. It's A Drop In The Bucket



Brad Ideas
Feb 14, 2020

How should we handicap the political polls?
Topic: Politics

As I have written before, the US Presidential election will be decided solely by the voters in a small number of states. Florida and Pennsylvania are the most important, and Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin also play a role. In particular it will be decided there by the "weakly faithful" voters, the ones who don't vote reliably for their party, and in particular who sometimes don't vote at all. The party faithful, the "base," are already in the bag and these voters are all that counts.

(Sadly, the primary process is designed to choose the nominee based on the views of party faithful voters, mostly in safe states, with particular emphasis on Iowa and New Hampshire, but this is hard to fix.)

As such, national polls are dangerous and misleading. A lot of Democrats regularly take solace in the fact that Clinton won the press-tabulated national vote in 2016, because they wish that were the real election. It is not, and that wishful thinking should not let people get distracted by doing national polls. Because you have to poll 6 times as many people to poll the swing states with a large enough sample, we see a lot of these misleading national polls.

There are only a few swing state polls, and we should see more. They usually poll either registered voters or likely voters, and they don't put enough focus on the core question of "If th

Brad Ideas
Feb 13, 2020

NTSB report on Tesla Autopilot Silicon Valley Fatality is out
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesThe NTSB has released their docket on the fatal crash of a Tesla on Autopilot in Silicon Valley in 2018. In this article, I examine what they learned about the cause of the accident and the few new details and wrinkles found in the latest report. The full hearing will be Feb 25.

Read it at NTSB report on Tesla Autopilot Silicon Valley Fatality is out



Brad Ideas
Feb 11, 2020

Top 17 surprises from a year of driving a Tesla EV
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbesBefore I bought an electric car, I knew it would be different and I was ready for it. Even so, here is my list of 17 things that I didn't quite expect, that I only realized after driving one for a while.

See the list at my Forbes site article Top 17 surprises from the first year of a Tesla



Brad Ideas
Feb 04, 2020

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for average people to imagine they can control and use it
Topic: Politics We often repeat the misattributed quote that "for evil to triumph, it is only necessary that good men do nothing." We also often cite father Niemoeller's poem about how "First, they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out -- Because I was not a socialist... Then they came for the Jews ... Then they came for me."

These lines remind us to resist the forces of evil, and to do it early. And we definitely should.

But the real thing that enables the triumph of evil is not simply the lack of opposition by good people. The fascists did not rise in Germany and Italy because the left didn't protest enough. The problem was that the average people -- not particularly good and not specifically evil -- enabled the dark forces because they felt they could be useful tools that they could control.

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for average people to imagine they can control and use it.

In Germany, Hitler's NSDAP in 1930 got only 18.3% of the vote and 107 seats. Through machinations they worked their way up and in November 1932 they had 33% of the seats, becoming the largest party but far from a majority. The conservatives had already partnered with him. Then Hitler convinced President von Hindenburg and former Chancellor Papen to agree to make him Chancellor. Both men, and the conservatives in general, thought they could tame and use Hitler. They were wrong. Hitler used the power he got, along with violence, illegal tricks and of course, the Reichstag fire, to quic

Brad Ideas
Feb 03, 2020

Everybody's focused on "sharing" -- is it actually the right first path?
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesI wrote earlier about Cruise's "Origin" which they say is a vehicle devoted to shared rides. Many other companies also are hoping to make vehicles for shared rides -- it's treated as almost a received wisdom. But the reality is that sharing rides isn't all that it's cracked up to be, and to work what you really need is frictionless instant mode transfers so nobody goes out of their way. And for that you need automated single person pods, not big shared vehicles. In fact, the cost of a human driver, per passenger, isn't that bad on shared riding -- it's in the last mile that the cost is too high.

Read my analysis on Forbes.com at Shared ride vehicles may get it backwards



Brad Ideas
Jan 28, 2020

Early leaks and reports on Uber weren't too long on the truth
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesWith the story of the Uber fatality now behind us, I thought I would do a review of the various leaks and early releases that we saw about the incident, and how well they scored once the final NTSB report came out. The score is not at all good.

Read my report on Forbes.com at Early leaks and reports on Uber weren't too long on the truth



Brad Ideas
Jan 27, 2020

GM/Cruise releases a plan for a future custom designed robotaxi -- and it reminds me of Zoox
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesRecently, Cruise, the unit of GM (and partner of Honda) did a splash release of a new vehicle design which they say is "not a concept." It's a custom-designed robotaxi, and it reminds me a lot of the plan of Zoox, the $billion funded startup that I advised when it was just getting going.

I've written an article about the risks and benefits of making your own custom vehicle, and whether it's smart or crazy. You can find that at:

Cruise's new robotaxi presages a battle with Zoox on Forbes.com



Brad Ideas
Jan 15, 2020

LIDARS for robocars are everywhere at CES
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesI'm back from CES and my first report concerns the trends in the LIDAR industry I saw from the 43 LIDAR companies exhibiting there. I talked to most of them. Those trends include lowered cost, more robust instruments and scores of paths to victory. There is also much more attention on LIDAR for the ADAS market. Bosch even said it would make a LIDAR, but said nothing about it.

Read LIDARS for robocars are everywhere at CES on Forbes.com



Brad Ideas
Jan 02, 2020

Robocars 2019 Year In Review
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesHere is a summary of the Robocar stories from 2019 that were the most significant. It was actually not a year of very big change. Waymo is still the distant leader, in spite of having slipped a bit on their goals. I talk about the trough of the hype cycle and the challenges going ahead for the 2020s. If you skipped most of my coverage in the year, these are the selected ones to read.

Read the year in review at Robocars 2019 in review



Brad Ideas
Dec 28, 2019

California regulations are no cause for panic but they show "gasoline thinking"
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbesIf you read stories that California just put in new regulations that will change all the per-minute chargers and Tesla superchargers, don't worry, the changes are not that big and don't apply to chargers for some time. But it is worth examining how the regulations, such as they are, exhibit 20th century "gasoline thinking" by imagining that the same rules that apply to gas pumps should apply to electric charging stations. See about it in my Forbes site article:

California EV regs don't forbid per minute, but are still dumb gasoline thinking



Brad Ideas
Dec 20, 2019

The Dems may have chosen the two wrong articles of impeachment
Topic: PoliticsOne has to be impressed in a perverse way at the fact that no Republican broke ranks on Donald Trump in the impeachment vote. Some even defended their votes with passion. I've often felt that since we know several of them loathe Trump that they were just acting out of party loyalty and a sense of self-preservation within their party.

But I start to wonder that some serious number of them, and their voters, don't think Trump's actions are that big a deal. Here's why:

The first article is really about Trump using his office to help him cheat a bit in the upcoming election. Politicians don't think cheating in elections is wrong when it's done by their side. The second article is about obstruction. It's a fairly common attitude among non-jurists that obstruction isn't very wrong if the thing you're being investigated for isn't wrong. Together, they may be legitimately wondering why this was the crime that Democrats planted their flag on. They often remarked about how many Democrats have wanted, at some level, to impeach Trump since day one, and they're not wrong. These two articles cover just one incident in a long line of transgression by Trump, including those that predate his election, such as his call to Russia to get Clinton's e-mails and things outlined in the Mueller report meshed with his own statements about how it's OK to accept help from Russia as long as you don't ask for it. The Democrats have been itching, but at the same time

Brad Ideas
Dec 19, 2019

EV fast charging connector battles and standards wars might be OK
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbesIt's a common lament that because there are so many EV charging plugs (including the 4 fast-charging systems -- Tesla, Chademo, US-CCS and Euro-CCS) that we need a universal standard, so that we can get the goal everybody wants of being able to charge any car anywhere.

That's a great goal, but standards slow down innovation. Tesla's proprietary connector is markedly superior to the two competing "standards" and there is yet more innovation to happen. What's better is to expect things to be different, and make it possible to build adapters, and stock them at the charging stations. Tesla has a Chademo to Tesla adapter, but even though there are perhaps only 200 places it would be useful to have it, they sell it to owners for $450 rather than just putting it in those 200 places.

Here's a rundown of the charging plug standards and the fight among them at:

Cometing Electric Car Charging Standards Can Be Fixed



Brad Ideas
Dec 12, 2019

Trolleys, Risk and Consequences: A Model For Understanding Robocar Morality
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesOne of the most contentious issues in robocars are the moral issues involved in testing and deploying them. We hope they will prevent many crashes and save many lives, but know that due to imperfection, they also create a risk of causing other crashes, both in deployment, and during deployment. People regularly wonder if they should be out there tested on city streets, or ever deployed. Even with numbers that are perhaps the most overwhelmingly positive from a utilitarian standpoint, we remain uncertain.

I've written much on this over the years, have now prepared a fairly detailed analysis of why we think the way we think, both as individuals and a society, and offer a path to better understanding, by understanding the different and sometimes contradictory moral theories that exist simultaneously within ourselves, and searching for a path to reconciliation by looking at vast amounts of microrisk instead of tragedies.

With some irony, I even refer to the "trolley problem." Not the vexing and dangerous misapplication of that problem to robocars deciding "who to kill" that I have often railed against, but rather the original trolley problem, the philosophy class exercise built to help us understand our own moral thinking on issues involving machines, death and human action.

Bear with me -- this is not a short essay

Brad Ideas
Dec 11, 2019

How to save a lot of money when installing electric vehicle charging in your home
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbesOften when you attempt to install an EV charging station in an older home, you find that the old 100 amp service on your panel is not enough, and the electrician may quite a very large price to replace the panel and upgrade the service.

There are ways to avoid paying thousands of dollars by putting in a modestly smaller circuit, and you may find it charges you just fine. Here is a guide to how to get away with less than a 50 amp plug and save many thousands.

See Don't spend a fortune installing charging at the Forbes site.



Brad Ideas
Dec 10, 2019

In car navigation needs to learn to shut up
Topic: TechnologyTransportationTags: forbesI think driving navigation is a great thing, but the UI is all wrong. It needs to work to understand me, to see the routes I have driven with it 100 times, and only tell me when there is something unusual I need to know, not where to turn to get to my house (or telling me "You have arrived at your destination" at my driveway.) The ideal navigation system, on a commute, won't even say a word to me unless there is traffic that means I should not take my standard route. How do we make it smarter?

I explore these issues in a new Forbes site article In car navigation needs to learn to shut up



Brad Ideas
Dec 06, 2019

California Is Collecting the 2019 Robocar Disengagement Reports. It Should Stop
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesCalifornia is now collecting the 2019 "disengagement reports" for robocars, which always get lots of attention. But in fact, they are measuring the wrong thing -- it is the safety of testing they should measure in the public interest, not the quality of the prototypes -- and they are measuring it wrong, and pushing companies to do things that may be unsafe in order to meet their wrong and useless metric.

See my new article at California Is Collecting the 2019 Robocar Disengagement Reports. It Should Stop



Brad Ideas
Dec 05, 2019

Battery, ICE, Hybrid: What About Temporary Mixes?
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbesI was thinking about all the different variants of battery powered and hybrid cars, and thinking about the BMW i3 REX, which is a medium range PHEV that uses a small, cheap motorcycle engine to drive a generator. I think there might be two new types of semi-hybrid cars with this approach, so I wrote up a summary of all the types, and where the new modes fit it, particularly a plan to make cars with a receiver in which a temporary generator module can be placed.

See my Forbes.com article at Battery, ICE, Hybrid: What About Temporary Mixes?



Brad Ideas
Dec 01, 2019

Managing a Tesla charging line
Topic: Going Green Only one spot left -- grab it quick!

Apropos of my Thanksgiving article on EV charging shortages on peak travel days there have indeed been reports of very long waits of an hour or more at some chargers in California, though they may be partly attributed to road closures on I-5 in Southern California (or "The 5" as it is known down there) bunching up the cars. At one station with a very long wait (San Luis Obispo) Tesla brought in a portable supercharging station on a trailer, which had 8 chargers and a megapack battery. But it was gone by the time of the long wait](https://youtu.be/a1uFudf37JU), possibly to get recharged itself.

So, whatever the cause of the long wait, here are some thoughts on ways it might be made a bunch shorter, some of which would be controversial.

They would all start with Tesla managing the line, rather than having drivers queue up. This is to say that when you approached the station, Tesla would put in you a digital line, manage your place in the line, and alert you which charging station to go charge at when the time came. You could only charge at that station, and nobody else could and signs would clearly say that. Tesla knows where all cars are, and what their state of charge is, and even in most cases where they are going next. Cars are already told to

Brad Ideas
Nov 28, 2019

Can An Electric Car World Handle Thanksgiving Travel?
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbesIf the world switches to mostly electric cars, how will they handle the charging on peak travel days like Thanksgiving? I wrote an article on some thoughts for that, and on evacuations as well.

Read about it at Can An Electric Car World Handle Thanksgiving Travel?



Brad Ideas
Nov 25, 2019

EV Electric cost goes up 25%, nobody blinks, plus why your Uber isn't electric
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbesHere are two recent articles on the economics of electric vehicles.

On Nov 1, PG&E, probably the most common power company for electric vehicle owners, raised the cost of their EV off-peak rate by about 25% in exchange for making the off-peak period last longer. Nobody even noticed, even though a 25% rise in gas prices would be a major calamity in the eyes of many. I look into that math and why nobody cared in:

PG&E raises EV costs by 25% and nobody blinks

Why your Uber/Lyft is not an EV (yet) Second, the math now says that if you want to buy a new car to drive Uber/Lyft full time, some of the electrics are a clear win. Yet very rarely do you see this. I wrote an article going over the math, and outlining some of the reasons which get in the way (particularly the fact that Uber/Lyft drivers may not be homeowners who can put in charging, and that new cars are not the best choice for TNC and a few others.)

Read about that in Why isn't your Uber an electric car?



Brad Ideas
Nov 21, 2019

FCC starts to take the DSRC spectrum back for unlicenced
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesThe FCC has finally declared it intends to take 45mhz of the DSRC spectrum and make it unlicenced instead, though they are still leaving 20mhz for C-V2X (Qualcomm's LTE based replacement for DSRC that is mostly similar with 10mhz still to be figured out. Getting rid of DSRC and the silly idea of vehicle to vehicle communications is a good idea, but they should go even further -- and solve the V2V problem far better -- but making it all unlicenced and doing V2V in phones, not cars.

Read all about it in my new article at Forbes.com -- FCC chairman proposes making most of V2V band free for the people



Brad Ideas
Nov 19, 2019

NTSB holds hearing on Uber Fatality -- pedestrian out of crosswalk issue didn't play a role.
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes Robert Sumwalt, NTSB chairman

NTSB is holding its live hearings on the Uber robocar fatality. I have detailed live coverage (found in comment #1) which I am updating. Lots of new details, including the fact that what was previously reported --- that Uber's car could not identify pedestrians outside of crosswalks -- turns out to be wrong and played no role in the accident. We also learn that the victim was very high and more.

Read my live coverage and updates in my Forbes article at NTSB hearing blames humans, software and policy



Brad Ideas
Nov 18, 2019

Traffic doesn't go up 85%, and we can solve congestion
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesA recently released tiny study from UC Berkeley gave 13 people personal chauffeurs for a week to see how their travel habits changed. They found their car miles going up 85%, but in most cases it was for silly reasons that would not actually happen. Still, miles will go up with robotaxis -- but congestion doesn't have to increase at all.

See my article at Study suggests Robocars increase congestion for details of the flaws in the study and how we can have almost zero congestion if we're willing.



Brad Ideas
Nov 15, 2019

Daimler Makes Risky Bet Pulling Back From Robotaxi Business
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesDaimler's CEO has said they plan to "scale back" and "rightsize" their robotaxi efforts and focus on Trucking. Trucking is a good field for them, but this is a big bet.

Bet right and the company avoids wasting some money on being too early to the self driving game. Bet wrong and there may be no Daimler.

Read about it at Daimler Makes Risky Bet Pulling Back From Robotaxi Business



Brad Ideas
Nov 12, 2019

Cities stuck in last mile, Stupid Cities, Scooters and the future of Hydrogen
Topic: Going GreenRobocarsTags: forbesTwo articles this week from 3 conferences I attended.

First look at How Cities are Stuck in the "last mile" and other observations from a conferences on cities and new mobility. I examine how scooter companies are working with cities, and how self-driving car tech is mapping cities by keeping the infrastructure dumb.

Today, I write about the future of Hydrogen in transportation -- it's lost the battle for cars, but might have applications in electric flying cars, and in storage for the grid.



Brad Ideas
Nov 06, 2019

New NTSB report is out -- with damning information on Uber's fatal robocar crash
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbes 508 ringtmp$

In advance of the full hearing, an early NTSB report on the fatal Uber robocar crash last year is out. It contains some important new details, including the fact that the Uber system did not consider the possibility of pedestrians outside of crosswalks, and also kept throwing away past trajectory data on obstacles every time it reclassified them. Not able to classify Elaine Herzberg as a pedestrian, it constantly reclassified her and thus failed to track her, thus not realizing the problem until it was too late.

I have a new and very detailed analysis of the accident on the Forbes site, you can read it at:

New NTSB reports reveal major errors by Uber



Brad Ideas
Nov 05, 2019

Recharging in 10 minutes is less exciting than you think
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesLots of folks were forwarding a story about a battery lab at Penn State that has shown a battery that can be recharged in 10 minutes. This is good (and many other labs and companies have demonstrated other ways to do that. But my key reaction is that those who think it's a huge deal are still thinking of electric cars like gasoline cars that you fill up at filing stations. They aren't. With a recent EV, not on a road trip, you charge only at home while you sleep, which takes zero time. Fast charging is not of value there. An article about this can be found in

Read more in my Forbes article Recharging in 10 minutes is less exciting than you think



Brad Ideas
Oct 30, 2019

Twitter and FB shouldn't ban political ads. They should give them away to registered candidates
Topic: MediaNew DemocracyPoliticsTwitter's decision to no longer take political advertising is causing a stir, and people are calling on Facebook to do the same. Political advertising isn't just an issue now that we've learned that Russians are doing it to screw with elections. It's the sink for almost all the money spent by campaigns, and thus all the money they raise from donors. The reason that people in office spend more than half their time fundraising is they feel they have no choice.

Today, most of that money goes to old school media, like TV. We're on the cusp of the switch, where it moves over to online media. For many years, I have written on the opportunities that gives us to change the role of money in politics. I tried to get the leaders of sites like Google and others to early on decide to give away political advertising instead of selling it. It's much easier to give up billions of revenue before you get them, after all.

This is a tricky issue. Political speech is the most protected of speech, considered perhaps the core reason we have free speech at all. We want to be wary of how even private parties regulate it -- we have forbidden the government from doing so.

My New Democracy series included this article on fixing money in politics

Brad Ideas
Oct 30, 2019

Tesla "full" self-driving will jump to $7,000 tomorrow
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesElon has tweeted that the price to pay today to get future self-drive features will rise to $7,000 tomorrow. I write some more analysis of this offering and its price in light of this increase. If Tesla really pulls off a full self driving product ahead of everybody else, might it be better to just buy the stock and spend some of the profits on the higher price in the future?

Read about it at Tesla full self driving price goes up



Brad Ideas
Oct 29, 2019

How Peter Theil almost ruined TechDirt and the peril of the selective information attack
Topic: InternetPoliticsPrivacyNick Denton was a sleazebag. I knew that within one minute of meeting him, as he described the new web site he was planning, called "Valleywag." He was proud he had learned the name of Larry Page's girlfriend and he could break that story, as if who Larry was dating was worthy news of some kind.

Many years later, Denton met his downfall and few shed tears for him, for he published many far less newsworthy stories in his Gawker network of sites. Some of the sites (like io9) were worthwhile, others were not. His downfall came when he outed Peter Theil, and pissed off a billionaire. While Peter's sexual orientation was not, as far as I knew, a secret or something that anybody cared about in the San Francisco circles that we ran in, Theil's battle with Denton led to some consequences with ramifications for core principles of free speech.

Peter could not sue directly over this, but he didn't need to. Instead, he offered to fund anybody who had a claim against Denton. It wasn't hard to find them, and the big fish was wrestler Hulk Hogan. Gawker had disclosed a sex tape involving Hogan. The resulting lawsuit netted enough money to bankrupt Gawker.

So a sleazy gossip publisher was taken down for invading privacy he should not have invaded. Do we cheer along with Peter?

Theil funded other attacks on Gawker, some of them more dubious. He funded the

Brad Ideas
Oct 29, 2019

How Peter Thiel almost ruined TechDirt and the peril of the selective information attack
Topic: InternetPoliticsPrivacyNick Denton was a sleazebag. I knew that within one minute of meeting him, as he described the new web site he was planning, called "Valleywag." He was proud he had learned the name of Larry Page's girlfriend and he could break that story, as if who Larry was dating was worthy news of some kind.

Many years later, Denton met his downfall and few shed tears for him, for he published many far less newsworthy stories in his Gawker network of sites. Some of the sites (like io9) were worthwhile, others were not. His downfall came when he outed Peter Thiel, and pissed off a billionaire. While Peter's sexual orientation was not, as far as I knew, a secret or something that anybody cared about in the San Francisco circles that we ran in, Thiel's battle with Denton led to some consequences with ramifications for core principles of free speech.

Peter could not sue directly over this, but he didn't need to. Instead, he offered to fund anybody who had a claim against Denton. It wasn't hard to find them, and the big fish was wrestler Hulk Hogan. Gawker had disclosed a sex tape involving Hogan. The resulting lawsuit netted enough money to bankrupt Gawker.

So a sleazy gossip publisher was taken down for invading privacy he should not have invaded. Do we cheer along with Peter?

Thiel funded other attacks on Gawker, some of them more dubious. He funded the

Brad Ideas
Oct 28, 2019

Waymo unmanned vehicle has debatable encounter with erratic videographer
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesWatching a 3rd party video of a Waymo minivan operating entirely vacant, I was a bit surprised (at 1:05 in the video) when the van did not pause after the video-shooting driver of the other car pulled up next to it by going into the oncoming lane, and then it cut left in front of that car. All very slow and not dangerous, but not what I expected. In the article in comment #1 I link in the video and muse on the issues of handling situations like this.

Read about it at Forbes.com in Waymo operates vacant but makes potential misstep

You can also watch the Youtube Video



Brad Ideas
Oct 25, 2019

Tesla 3Q numbers are good but still have odd wording
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesTesla released their latest Autopilot safety numbers, and they show a good improvement over the previous quarter.

At the same time, they continue to use strange wording in the report and refuse to answer questions about what their wording means or give the clear statistics that would let us evaluate what the stats really mean.

I get into the numbers in my new article Tesla 3Q numbers are good but still have odd wording



Brad Ideas
Oct 22, 2019

What would the popular vote be in Canada?
Topic: Politics Preliminary results from Wikipedia

In yesterday's election, there's been a lot of talk of the popular vote totals. In particular, in the totals, made by incorrectly summing up the totals for each riding by party, Liberals (which will form a minority government with 157 seats (needing 170 for majority) took 31.1% while Conservatives get 121 seats with slightly more "popular" vote at 34.4%. Most robbed perhaps are the NDP with 15.9% of the "popular" vote but only 24 seats, compared to the BQ with less than half the "popular" votes and 32 seats.

As I've noted in US elections, there is no popular vote in Canada or the US Presidential election. Rather, there are 338 popular vote elections, conducted under the plurality rule called "first past the post." The media then sum these elections up to make a popular vote, even though that's misleading and statistically invalid.

It's invalid because only 60-70 of the 338 ridings are "in play." The rest are generally safe, though elections in Canada swing a lot more than in the USA, so it's a little harder to determine this number. The elections in those swing ridings are hard fought, and the federal parties spend real money there, and the leaders often come to visit. In Canada, even though the actual election is only for your local MP, in most, but certainly not all ridings this MP is seen as just a proxy for the

Brad Ideas
Oct 22, 2019

Report from Santiago protests and thoughts on mass protest in a robocar world
Topic: PoliticsRobocarsTags: forbes Street fire lit by protesters in Santiago, Chile

I just got back from Santiago, Chile, which was brought to a standstill this weekend by mass protests over economic conditions. Once out, I started thinking how mass protest (and even riots) might change in a world where robocars are providing the transportation, instead of the private cars and transit systems which were central in these protests.

It's a very mixed bag, with good and bad for both the city and the protesters. At some levels, a highly distributed transportation system can be more robust, but the nature of robots means it could be very easily to choke most of the streets quickly.

Read my new Forbes.com article Santiago Protests Shut Down Transit - what happens in the robocar world?

I am curious as to reader views on these issues, and what solutions might exist to them.



Brad Ideas
Oct 11, 2019

Tesla smart summon is a self-inflicted wound
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesI tried out smart summon on my Tesla yesterday. Both times it got confused and stuck for so long it blocked parking lot traffic and I had to run into it to move it. Videos have surfaced of the cars (gently) hitting things. Even if there it's working well for many people, these results erode confidence in the capability of Tesla's systems. Tesla has driven over its own foot releasing this product in this state, and for nothing, since it's not at all useful.

See Forbes.com story: Tesla rolls over own feet with pointless smart summon



Brad Ideas
Sep 24, 2019

Tabletop Augmented Reality (Tilt5) kickstarter begins today
Topic: AnnouncementsMediaI'm pleased to announce that Tilt5, an augmented reality company for which I am an investor and advisor, has gone live with its kickstarter today.



Tilt5's approach to AR is quite different from the others you've seen. The glasses require you place an inexpensive sheet of retroreflector on a surface (table, wall or stand) and it can display anything in 3D where that surface is. Real world objects can then be placed on the table and mix with the virtual ones. This may seem quite limiting, it doesn't try to paint things on top of the arbitrary world like Magic Leap, but it has some big advantages because of this method:

The image is quite bright and vivid You can cover a much larger field of view. (Other glasses tend to do only 30 to 50 degrees due to their waveguides and the illusion of reality is broken all the time.) The glasses are light, large and have big lenses, so you can actually see the eyes of the person wearing them. This allows for social interaction with other wearers. The first focus is on tabletop games. You get a magic table which can turn into anything, and you can place gam

Brad Ideas
Sep 17, 2019

Uber drivers as employees, competing with robotaxis
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesWith a new California law threatening to classify Uber drivers as employees, I examine if a law like that could really work or Uber can get around it, and also what happens if this makes drivers cost more -- and leads them to a tougher battle against their real competitor, the robotaxi.

Read more in my Forbes.com article If Uber drivers become employees, can uber escape that, plus how they compete with robotaxis



Brad Ideas
Sep 13, 2019

Falling asleep with Autopilot on -- does it explain Tesla's numbers?
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesIf you fall asleep while driving with Autopilot, it's not a good idea, but you're much safer than falling asleep in a car that doesn't have it. Since a lot of accidents are caused by falling asleep, could this be the reason for Tesla's claim that driving with Autopilot is much safer than not? Or is that claim itself even valid? I outline the logic and math in my new Forbes site article at:

Sleeping with Tesla Autopilot may explain some of Tesla's numbers



Brad Ideas
Sep 09, 2019

Tesla battery guru and new super-lifetime cell
Topic: Going GreenRobocarsTags: forbesTesla's "battery guru" from Halifax, NS released a paper on some new battery cells they have been testing in his lab and getting 6,000 cycles from 0 to 100% on. That's a lot better than today's cells which offer 2000 cycles from 20% to 80% if you are lucky. This could be very big for electric cars, grid storage and it is suggested even robotaxis -- but their needs turn out to be more straightforward than originally thought. But it does bring down the cost.

See my analysis of what longer lasting batteries mean at Forbes.com in Tesla battery guru describes a new cell with massive lifetime



Brad Ideas
Sep 06, 2019

NTSB lets us look inside a new Tesla accident, what does it tell us?
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesBecause Tesla Autopilot is driving tons of miles it's having accidents, and the NTSB in investigating them. That gives us a window we would not have into what's happening. The NTSB report on a non-injury Autopilot accident came out recently, and let's just learn what Tesla's autopilot didn't perceive.

I have some analysis in a new Forbes site article Tesla autopilot accident shows what's inside -- and it's not pretty for full self drive



Brad Ideas
Sep 05, 2019

Ford's sensor cleaner and handling sensor failure in robocars
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesA recent Ford article on how they clean bug splatter off their LIDAR prompted me to write about how you do redundancy in robocars to deal with the inevitable failure of sensors and other components. It's a software way of thinking, not a "make the hardware more reliable" approach.

Read it at Ford's sensor cleaner keeps it seeing, but how do we handle failures?



Brad Ideas
Sep 04, 2019

How to pick which range of Tesla or other EV to buy
Topic: Going GreenTags: forbesA big question for most EV buyers is how much range they need. It depends on your commute, your driving area and how much you want to take long road trips, and where you want to take them, but most people will be pretty happy with the 200-250 mile range cars that are starting to come out. But do you want to pay extra for more than 300 miles of range and get that long range Tesla?

Here's an article where I outline how to make that decision:

How to choose what range Tesla or other EV to buy



Brad Ideas
Aug 29, 2019

Will networked self driving cars become a surveillance nightmare?
Topic: PrivacyRobocarsTags: forbesAs I've written earlier, Tesla has the ability to load special "search" neural networks into the cars to hunt for things they want to use to train with. In this article on Forbes, I hypothesize the day when there's an Amber Alert, and police ask to load networks to search for the car and people involved, and it quickly works. And then police get a taste for this, not just in the USA but China and other places. Where does it lead and can we stop it?

Read Will networked self driving cars become a surveillance nightmare?



Brad Ideas
Aug 26, 2019

Is Waymo's 70% satisfaction score bad news or good news
Topic: RobocarsTags: forbesSome customer satisfaction scores leaked from Waymo and were posted by "The Information." The story depicts the 70% 5-star rating as very much a glass-half-empty story, worrying about the problem rides. I think that's actually a very impressive score, and a sign of great things to come, which I detail in the new Forbes site story at:

Waymo's poor 70% satisfaction rate is actuall

Other Waymo news You may also be interested in my coverage of Waymo's release (for academic use only) of a large corpus of training data.

Waymo gives away free self driving data



Brad Ideas
Aug 26, 2019

A solar panel on an electric car is probably false green
Topic: Going GreenTransportationTags: forbesHyundai has put a solar panel on an electric car. Turns out that's "false green" and may end up using a lot of the solar energy to cool down the car after you park it in the sun. What do the economics on solar panels in cars look like?

See Hyundai puts a solar panel on an EV but it's probably false green



Brad Ideas
Aug 13, 2019

Brad Ideas
Brad Templeton is Chairman Emeritus of the EFF, Singularity U founding computing faculty, software architect and internet entrepreneur, robotic car strategist, futurist lecturer, photographer and Burning Man artist. This is an "ideas" blog rather than a "cool thing I saw today" blog. Many of the items are not topical. If you like what you read, I recommend you also browse back in the archives, starting with the best of blog section. It also has various "topic" and "tag" sections (see menu on right) and some are sub blogs like Robocars, photography and Going Green. Try my home page for more info and contact data.

Brad Ideas
Aug 12, 2019

Tesla Autopilot alleged failure makes you wonder about how they train it
Topic: Going GreenRobocarsTags: forbesAnother Tesla car crash, allegedly on autopilot, teaches us something about how well (or not well) Tesla is doing with its claimed ability to use its fleet of cars to quickly learn to identify unusual obstacles and situations. Here, a Tesla on autopilot crashes into a tow truck sticking out into the right lane (injuring the Tesla driver.) The driver says it was on Autopilot but that he was distracted for a few seconds. Driver's fault, but why did the Tesla, whose Autopilot is supposedly just months from turning into "feature complete full self driving" miss this sort of thing, when this has happened before, and Tesla has great tools to understand things that have happened before. New Forbes article in comment #1

Plus I look into new things about an old Tesla accident, where it seems the driver was completely abusing Autopilot, treating it like self-driving, and just wiggling the wheel every few minutes to keep Autopilot going, but missed and it was off when he probably thought he had kept it on.

Read some analysis at this Forbes site article Alleged Tesla Autopilot failure raises questions on how they train

Brad Ideas
Aug 12, 2019

It's not just micromobility -- minimobility is where the action is
Topic: Going GreenRobocarsTransportationTags: forbes

With all the excitement about micromobility (scooters) I want to talk more about "minimobility" where is where I think the action will be in short-haul urban transportation. Narrow, small short-range cars for 1-2 people, enclosed and self driving. Half the energy and road space of cars, 1/5th the parking space and many other things to love. Few buy these today because they are too special purpose, but most should be willing to ride in them as self-driving taxis.

More details are in this Forbes site article Between cars and micromobility there is a revolution in minimobility



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