If you listen to financial markets, the U.S. is on a surefire path of accelerating productivity growth. Some measures of price-to-earnings ratios are higher than they have been in the past two decades. Stock market bulls can point to the productivity promise of artificial intelligence and the 19-fold investment jump since 2010 of the largest tech firms into research and development and capital expenditure. To boot, recent productivity figures look good: 2024 saw double the growth rate of the 2010s, write Olivia White, Rebecca J. Anderson, and Jan Mischke in Barron's.
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