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Jul 18, 2019

Likelihood of a 1.88% Fed Funds Rate by End of July Soars to 71%
However, caution should be used, as these implied probabilities are subject to wide swings. Analysis
Jul 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fed Should Underpromise, Overdeliver
Market expectations for a 50-basis point cut this month have jumped but Fed may not deliver. Analysis
Jul 18, 2019

What Could Trigger a U.S. Recession in 2020
A recession isn't our baseline, but there are some nontraditional threats. Analysis
Jul 18, 2019

U.S. Consumers May Not Know They Won
Tax payments for 2018 were down, but filing season pain may have left consumers with a bad taste. Analysis
Jul 17, 2019

U.S. Investment-Grade Space Shows Growing Number of Bond-Derived High-Yield Ratings
The market also sees a 50-basis point fed funds cut later this month. Analysis
Jul 17, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S Economy Is Fine, Singapore's Is Not
U.S. housing starts dip in June while Singapore's exports fell sharply. Analysis
Jul 17, 2019

A Year of U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
Protectionism has brought little if any economic benefit. Analysis
Jul 17, 2019

U.S. Equipment Investment Should Be Slowing
Fundamentals have turned, but the expansion can move forward. Analysis
Jul 17, 2019

Multifamily Drags Housing Starts and Permits Lower
Lower mortgage rates haven't provided much of a boost to U.S. homebuilding. Analysis
Jul 16, 2019

Consumers May Lead a Rejuvenation of U.S. Business Activity
Rejuvenation of core business sales growth would firm profitability and lower recession risk. Analysis
Jul 16, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Finding a Groove
Retails sales beat expectations in June and real consumption is tracking north of 4% in Q2. Analysis
Jul 16, 2019

U.S. Employment Outlook: Reading Signals Through the Noise
The labor market roller coaster has been in full effect so far this year. Analysis
Jul 16, 2019

U.S. Q2 GDP Now Tracking 1.7%
Inventories took a bite out of growth in the second quarter. Analysis
Jul 16, 2019

U.S. Consumer Proves the Sky Isn't Falling
Control retail sales were solid in June. Analysis
Jul 16, 2019

The Fed Shouldn't Fret Too Much Over U.S. Business Investment
Investment is volatile, and there can be more noise than signal. Analysis
Jul 16, 2019

Interest Rate Expectations Drop in Response to Sluggish Business Outlook
The consensus view of equity analysts is that operating leverage will return in 2020. Analysis
Jul 15, 2019

Economic Roundup: What's Up Is Down, What's Down Is Up
The Chinese economy has cooled noticeably while U.S. manufacturer sentiment rebounds. Analysis
Jul 15, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Mr. Powell Goes to Washington
The Fed will most likely cut interest rates in July. Analysis
Jul 15, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: A Fragile Place
The expansion is vulnerable if anything goes wrong, and there is plenty that could go wrong. Analysis
Jul 15, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, July 12, 2019
The incoming data won't alter the Fed's plan for a rate cut. Analysis
Jul 12, 2019

Economic Roundup: Inching Closer
PPI and CPI suggest core PCE deflator rose 0.2% in June, leaving it up 1.7% on a year-ago basis. Analysis
Jul 12, 2019

Outstandings' 10th Straight Yearly Drop of High-Yield Bonds Reins in Spreads
The spread is thinner than predicted by a recent high-yield expected default frequency metric of 4.08%. Analysis
Jul 12, 2019

Canada Weekly: Central Bank Holds Steady
December will be the next chance for a rate hike. Analysis
Jul 11, 2019

Only Baa3 Spread Was Wider Than Its Long-Term Median in June
Buyers of Baa3 obligations might demand additional yield as compensation for the above-average risk of a fallen-angel downgrade. Analysis
Jul 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: Powell Goes to Capitol Hill Again and Yadda Yadda Yadda
Core inflation posted a solid gain in June, but that won't deter the Fed from cutting. Analysis
Jul 11, 2019

Debt Ceiling Tracker: Uh-Oh
The Treasury may run out of cash in the first half of September. Analysis
Jul 10, 2019

Powell's Testimony Ends a Three-Day Losing Streak for Corporate Bond ETFs
Corporate bond ETFs moved higher despite a slight uptick by longer-dated Treasury bond yields. Analysis
Jul 10, 2019

Economic Roundup: Powell Speaks and Removes All Doubt
Fed is going to cut in July. Analysis
Jul 10, 2019

U.S. Retailers Need Dollars to Hire
Falling employment in the sector stems from weak nominal sales growth. Analysis
Jul 10, 2019

Quick Thoughts on Powell's Prepared Remarks
Tying a potential Fed rate cut to the downside risks to the outlook suggests this is an insurance move. Analysis
Jul 09, 2019

Economic Roundup: Will Powell Turn to Parenting 101?
July is likely a done deal, but Powell will have to convince markets that future tantrums won't work. Analysis
Jul 09, 2019

For Baa3 Issuers, Bond Market Says Ratings Too High, EDFs Suggest Ratings Too Low
Perhaps bonds sense a worsening of credit fundamentals that EDFs have yet to detect. Analysis
Jul 09, 2019

Road to Recession: No Repeal of the Business Cycle
With this latest update, we have added several new features. Analysis
Jul 09, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Labor Market Roller Coaster
No red flags, but manufacturing warrants a close watch. Analysis
Jul 09, 2019

Global Outlook: Weakness, Uncertainty and Ructions
Significant and unresolved geopolitical risks plague the world's economies. Analysis
Jul 08, 2019

Futures Market Now Senses Only Two Fed Rate Cuts in 2019
It senses a fed funds rate no greater than 1.88% by year's end. Analysis
Jul 08, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor's Magic Number Still 100,000
Job growth less than that will push the unemployment rate higher. Analysis
Jul 08, 2019

Credit Unions: Ready for the Downturn?
With challenging new accounting standards on the horizon, loan portfolios have topped $1 trillion. Analysis
Jul 08, 2019

U.S. Labor Market: Perception vs. Reality
Job growth this year is noticeably weaker than last, but that's likely comparing apples to oranges. Analysis
Jul 05, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, July 5, 2019
The catalyst for cutting rates has much to do with trade tensions and slowing in the global economy. Analysis
Jul 05, 2019

Economic Roundup: Markets Caught Over Their Skis
Fed will do an 'insurance' cut, but that could be it. Analysis
Jul 05, 2019

Fed's Next Move Is to Cut in July
The Fed has boxed itself in, and we are now changing our forecast. Analysis
Jul 05, 2019

Good News for the Economy, Bad News for Markets
The solid U.S. jobs report takes a 50-basis point Fed rate cut off the table for July. Analysis
Jul 05, 2019

Whatever Happened to Offshoring?
The threat of sending jobs overseas has largely bypassed U.S. services employment. Analysis
Jul 03, 2019

Happy Fourth of July
Our U.S. economic coverage will resume Friday. Analysis
Jul 03, 2019

Economic Roundup: At Least Thursday Is a Holiday
U.S. economic data mostly disappointed, and we have cut our tracking estimate for Q2 GDP. Analysis
Jul 03, 2019

A 2015-2016 Type Slowdown by Core Business Sales Would Roil Corporate Credit
Here's what could get the FOMC to consider a 50-basis point rate cut. Analysis
Jul 03, 2019

Trade and Factory Orders Ding Q2 Growth
GDP is now tracking 1.6% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Jul 03, 2019

One Fed Nominee Faces an Easier Path Than the Other
Christopher Waller of the St. Louis Fed will likely be confirmed; Judy Shelton faces difficulties. Analysis
Jul 03, 2019

The Economic Implications of Climate Change
Climate change will create many losers, but also some winners. Analysis
Jul 02, 2019

Economic Roundup: 121 Months and Counting
The U.S. expansion is now the longest on record, but the trade war could kill it. Analysis
Jul 02, 2019

Even June's Lower Ratio of High-Yield Downgrades per Upgrade Warns of a Higher Default Rate
When corporate bond yield spreads swell despite a positive trend and outlook for corporate earnings, yield spreads are likely to narrow dramatically. Analysis
Jul 02, 2019

Tariffs Tracker: Haven't We Done This Already?
Another truce with China, another handshake agreement. Analysis
Jul 02, 2019

A Chunk of the Yield Curve Is Inverted, but Not All of It
One model implies a 40% probability of recession within 12 months, but interesting dynamics are at work. Analysis
Jul 01, 2019

Plunge by First Half's Newly Rated Loans Hints of Slower Growth by Nonfinancial Business Debt
Each lower-rated category posted a substantial annual decline in terms of the dollar volume of newly rated loans. Analysis
Jul 01, 2019

Economic Roundup: Markets Still Bet on a Fed Cut
Even with a U.S.-China trade truce, a 25-basis point rate reduction in July is fully priced in. Analysis
Jul 01, 2019

Sentiment Pulling the ISM Lower
Trade tensions are taking their toll and the U.S.-China truce may not provide a big boost. Analysis
Jul 01, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Consumers and Businesses Point in Different Directions
Low inflation, though a concern at the Fed, is not the main reason the central bank may cut rates. Analysis
Jul 01, 2019

Cost of the Central American Migrant Crisis
Economic, demographic, and social pressures will keep flows elevated. Analysis
Jul 01, 2019

Trump and Xi Call a Time Out
With the truce, we now expect the status quo through the rest of this year and into next. Analysis
Jun 28, 2019

Problematic Business Outlook Menaces a Below-Trend High-Yield Bond Spread
The latest high-yield expected default frequency favors a nearly 500-bps midpoint. Analysis
Jun 28, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 28, 2019
We look for job growth to have bounced back in June, but the unemployment rate likely rose. Analysis
Jun 28, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Meeting Between Frenemies
We have fairly low expectations fro the Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20. Analysis
Jun 28, 2019

Handicapping the Outcome of the Trump-Xi Meeting
No deal but an agreement to keep talking is the most likely scenario. Analysis
Jun 28, 2019

Canada Weekly: China's Beef With Canadian Bacon
A diplomatic dispute has continued to escalate behind the scenes. Analysis
Jun 27, 2019

Markets Expect a Declining Ratio for High-Yield Downgrades per Upgrade
Hope can be gleaned from the drop by calendar-quarter version of the high-yield downgrade per upgrade ratio. Analysis
Jun 27, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. GDP Unrevised but BEA Finds a Little More Inflation
Revisions to Q1 GDP didn't alter our view of growth in the second quarter. Analysis
Jun 27, 2019

Is It the G-20 or the G-2?
All member countries have skin in the game when it comes to the U.S.-China trade war. Analysis
Jun 26, 2019

Economic Roundup: Verb! That's What's Happenin'
Some signs of hope, then confusion on trade deal progress. Analysis
Jun 26, 2019

Rating Revisions and EDF Metric Warn of Wider High-Yield Bond Spread
Current business activity deceleration has not approached 2015-2016's profits recession. Analysis
Jun 26, 2019

Cutting Our Tracking Estimate for Q2 GDP
U.S. growth is now reading 1.8% at an annualized rate; inventories are a key culprit. Analysis
Jun 26, 2019

Do U.S. Primary Election Debates Matter?
They do, especially when the debate stage is crowded. Analysis
Jun 26, 2019

U.S. Retail Revisions Deepen the Puzzle
Revisions are minor in aggregate, but recent volatility is more extreme than prior data showed. Analysis
Jun 25, 2019

Ten-Year Treasury Yield Closes Under 2% for First Time Since Election Day 2016
Lower interest rates need to rejuvenate business activity if M&A is to appreciably grow again. Analysis
Jun 25, 2019

Economic Roundup: Watching the Collective Psyche
Consumer sentiment drops in June, but it's businesses that are down in the dumps. Analysis
Jun 25, 2019

U.S. Employment Outlook: Not if, but When
A downturn is coming, but the timing is uncertain. Analysis
Jun 25, 2019

U.S. New-Home Sales Dropped in May, but Trend Has Improved
New-home sales didn't alter our estimate of Q2 GDP, but revisions to retail sales did. Analysis
Jun 25, 2019

U.S. Consumers Feel Better Than Businesses
Sentiment is most important around inflection points in the economy. Analysis
Jun 25, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Not Feeling So Hot
Sentiment numbers are swooning despite the still-strong economy. Analysis
Jun 24, 2019

Evidence Favors Lower Benchmark Interest Rates and Wider High-Yield Spreads
A three-month Treasury bill rate of 2.13% has already priced in a federal funds rate of 2.125% by the end of July. Analysis
Jun 24, 2019

Economic Roundup: Global Business Sentiment Turns Grim
Confidence is consistent with a global economy that is stalling. Analysis
Jun 24, 2019

A Look Back at the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
The U.S. economy has deviated little from the playbook since the 2017 tax law. Analysis
Jun 21, 2019

Greater China Leads the World in Outstanding Nonfinancial Corporate Debt
The country accounted for 72.5% of the emerging markets' outstanding nonfinancial corporate debt. Analysis
Jun 21, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fed Is Losing the Game Theory Battle With Trump
With the central bank almost committed to a rate cut, the end of the trade issues would boost equity markets. Analysis
Jun 21, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 21, 2019
We expect a deal between the U.S. and China at the G-20 meeting, or at a minimum a truce. Analysis
Jun 21, 2019

Canada Weekly: Yield Curve Flashes Recession Warning
The estimated odds of a recession in Canada are reaching concerning levels. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

Lower Corporate Bond Yields Boost Credit Quality Via Refinancings
However, if companies substantially increase their debt, credit will suffer. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

Economic Roundup: Upping the Odds of a Fed Cut in July
Fed not alone, as RBA could eye another cut. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

Where Will the Fed Go From Here?
It will take a lot to prevent a cut in July, but nothing is certain. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

Powell Not Convinced U.S. Has Reached Full Employment
This is dovish for the path of interest rates and could lead to a cut. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

U.S. Regional Outlook: The Rise of Midsize Metro Areas
Costs drive movement to cheaper areas—to a degree. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

Ten-Year Treasury Yield May Soon Close Under 2% for First Time Since Trump's Election
The implied probability of fed funds' midpoint staying at 2.375% sank to 0% after the FOMC meeting. Analysis
Jun 19, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fed Almost Waved the White Flag
Bar is much lower for a cut this year and it could come in July. Analysis
Jun 19, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: Losing Faith
Recession fears have suddenly come to the fore. Analysis
Jun 19, 2019

U.S. Treasury Yields Tower Over Yields of Other Advanced Economies
The implied probability of fed funds finishing 2019 above their current 2.375% midpoint is 0%. Analysis
Jun 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: Super Mario Reboot
ECB's Mario Draghi turns more dovish while Trump has considered demoting Powell. Analysis
Jun 18, 2019

Draghi Turns More Dovish
The European Central Bank president signals the bank is ready to act, if needed. Analysis
Jun 18, 2019

The Power of the Trump Put
The put has helped the market in the past but could pack less of a punch down the road. Analysis
Jun 17, 2019

Year-Long U.S.-China Trade War Pushed Down 10-Year Treasury
Since June 14, 2018, the yield has dropped from 2.94% to a recent 2.09%. Analysis
Jun 17, 2019

Economic Roundup: Sending the Right Message
The FOMC will likely leave interest rates unchanged this week, but Powell's statements will be telling.

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