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May 24, 2020

This Week in the COVID Crisis
Political pressure should convince lawmakers to agree to another rescue package—one closer to $1 trillion in cost. Analysis
May 22, 2020

Economic Roundup: E-Commerce on the Rise
Online shopping was already doing well before the pandemic hit. Analysis
May 22, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: China's National People's Congress Convenes
Most of Asia puts coronavirus in remission. Analysis
May 22, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Unemployment Rate Is Still Rising
The jobless rate will continue to understate the severity of COVID-19. Analysis
May 22, 2020

Canada Weekly: An Opening Question
Phased reopenings across the country will allow the economy to begin its long rebound. Analysis
May 22, 2020

Q&A: COVID-19's Impact on U.S. Autos
We answer questions submitted in response to our webinar on automobile lending in the age of the pandemic. Analysis
May 22, 2020

Global Outlook: In the Grip of the Recession
Support from governments and central banks will be key to determining how quickly and efficiently economies rebound from the COVID-19 crisis. Analysis
May 22, 2020

U.S. Online Spending Returning to Its Roots
Home office related merchandise and books were among the fastest growing components of e-commerce sales in 2018. Analysis
May 22, 2020

The End of Driving? Not so fast.
High-frequency mobility data says U.S. driving is picking up. Analysis
May 21, 2020

Credit Analysts, Markets At Odds Over Severity of Climb by Defaults
The average high-yield EDF's monthlong average has climbed no higher than April's 9.09%. Analysis
May 21, 2020

Economic Roundup: Searching for U.S. Labor Market Bottom
The U.S. economy is still reeling more than two months after COVID-19 began shuttering businesses. Analysis
May 21, 2020

Still Scant Evidence of a Reopening Revival
Some progress for states that lifted lockdowns, but the "big bang" is a pipe dream. Analysis
May 21, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker Update: France, Germany Propose Recovery Fund
The EU takes a tentative step towards €500 billion in grants. Analysis
May 20, 2020

Yearly Increases by Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Impend
Mortgage applications narrowed from an April 10 bottom of down 34.9% to a decrease of 1.6%. Analysis
May 20, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed Favors QE Over YCC, but That Could Change
A few are on board with yield-curve control, although the Treasury could force support. Analysis
May 20, 2020

Auto-Manufacturing Restart Eases Supply Concerns; Demand Worry Remains
New-vehicle supply concerns have abated as Detroit's Big Three restarted production. Analysis
May 20, 2020

U.S. Housing Knocked Down but Not Out by COVID-19
Running counter to negative forces are pent-up demand, low vacancy rates, low interest rates, and a desire for homeownership. Analysis
May 20, 2020

Backing Out of PPP
Lending slowed in the U.S. program for small businesses as some borrowers changed their minds. Analysis
May 19, 2020

Lumber Futures May Be Sole Industrial Commodity Up from Year Earlier
The industrial commodity futures contract was up by 5.5% year to year on Monday. Analysis
May 19, 2020

Economic Roundup: Powell Avoids Fiscal Rabbit Hole
He reiterates the need for more stimulus but, as is common for Fed chairs, doesn't provide advice. Analysis
May 19, 2020

Businesses Struggle to Navigate the COVID-19 Storm
There could soon be a significant increase in U.S. business failures and bankruptcies. Analysis
May 19, 2020

Drop in Spending Costs Jobs
U.S. employment losses were largest where sales fell the most. Analysis
May 19, 2020

U.S. Regional COVID-19 Exposure Holds Steady
State and metro Z-scores have stabilized as the shock courses through the economy. Analysis
May 19, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Next Steps
Congress may deliver another round of stimulus as states rush to reopen. Analysis
May 19, 2020

U.S. Road to Recovery: Moving Beyond the Bottom
April was likely the worst month for this recession. Analysis
May 18, 2020

Rally Led by 9% Jump for Housing-Sector Stock Price Index
The market value of U.S. common stock on Monday leaped 3.41%. Analysis
May 18, 2020

Economic Roundup: Printing Money Won't Boost Inflation
The rapid growth in money supply isn't something to worry about. Analysis
May 18, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 18, 2020
Though new unemployment filings have been falling over the past several weeks, they remain massive. Analysis
May 18, 2020

Inflation Today Isn't Always a Monetary Phenomenon
The link between growth in the money supply and inflation has weakened. Analysis
May 18, 2020

Still Searching for U.S. Labor Market Bottom
New labor market data suggest that conditions have continued to worsen in recent weeks. Analysis
May 18, 2020

What Happens if Washington Says No to State and Local Governments?
Policymakers are facing the most challenging budget environment in at least a generation. Analysis
May 15, 2020

High-Yield Energy Debt Skewed Heavily Toward Bonds
Of the industry's high-yield obligations, bonds make up 84.9%. Analysis
May 15, 2020

Economic Roundup: April Was Awful
Last month should be the worst of the recession as signs point toward some improvement in May. Analysis
May 15, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Is the Worst Over?
Some high-frequency data suggest that the economy has ticked up but remains extremely depressed. Analysis
May 15, 2020

Canada Weekly: Measuring COVID-19 Economic Losses
The image of the ailing coronavirus economy is coming into focus. Analysis
May 15, 2020

Covid-19 Policy Tracker: As the Pendulum Swings
After decades of retreat, big government is back in the saddle. Analysis
May 15, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: COVID-19 Slows in Europe
The virus' resurgence in Singapore and S. Korea shows how hard it will be to stem new outbreaks. Analysis
May 15, 2020

U.S. Economy Dug Itself an Enormous Hole in April
Q2 GDP is now tracking -34.1% at an annualized rate, and it will likely get worse. Analysis
May 14, 2020

High Tech Dominates Baa3-Rated Obligations
The industry's $927 billion of rated obligations tops all other categories by a wide margin. Analysis
May 14, 2020

Economic Roundup: New Recession, New Paradox-of-Thrift Concerns
The savings rate hasn't peaked, but we are not worried about the paradox of thrift. Analysis
May 14, 2020

U.S. Labor Market Still Reeling From COVID-19
The Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program is still ramping up. Analysis
May 14, 2020

Forced Savings or the Paradox of Thrift?
The savings rate in the U.S. jumped in the first quarter, but some of this was not by choice. Analysis
May 14, 2020

The Mortgage Market Has Caught the Virus
We look at critical sources of stress in the U.S. housing finance system and what policymakers might do to address them. Analysis
May 14, 2020

Where Is the Reopening Bump?
More U.S. jobless claims data, more doubt about the efficacy of lifting lockdowns early. Analysis
May 14, 2020

Slow Decline in U.S. Jobless Claims Continues
There is a potential good sign in continuing claims. Analysis
May 13, 2020

Corporate Bond Issuance Transcends Latest Equity Sell-Off
Extraordinary support from the Federal Reserve has underpinned IG corporate bonds. Analysis
May 13, 2020

Economic Roundup: Powell Pushes Congress to Do More
The Fed Chairman is worried that liquidity issues could turn into solvency ones. Analysis
May 13, 2020

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Fiscal Policy Could Help or Hurt
A second wave of COVID-19 later this year is a key downside risk. Analysis
May 13, 2020

Lender, Not Spender of Last Resort
The Fed chairman was not so subtle in pushing Congress to do more. Analysis
May 13, 2020

COVID-19 Is Keeping the Roads Clear in U.S.
Traffic volume data reveal the extent of the impact from business closures and stay-at-home orders. Analysis
May 12, 2020

Fauci Speaks, Markets Plunge
The U.S. equity market dropped by 2.2%, or $651 billion. Analysis
May 12, 2020

Economic Roundup: Another Record Decline
This time it was the core CPI posting its largest monthly decline on record. Analysis
May 12, 2020

The Tweaks Made to the May U.S. Baseline
We have revised down the employment forecast and raised the unemployment rate projection. Analysis
May 12, 2020

Second Quarter U.S. GDP Heading South Quickly
Q2 is now tracking -23.8% at an annualized rate, and it will keep dropping. Analysis
May 12, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Could Be Worse...No, Not Really
Labor market data point to a long and difficult 2020. Analysis
May 11, 2020

May's US$-Denominated Investment-Grade Bond Issuance Could Set Record
April's record-high $300.18 billion of issuance could be eclipsed this month. Analysis
May 11, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed Pushes Back Against Negative Rates
The central bank shows no sign of warming to the idea of negative interest rate policy. Analysis
May 11, 2020

Canada Weekly: Auto Industry Strips Its Gears
Demand for vehicles will remain in the doldrums, weighing negatively on prices and signaling to manufacturers to reduce output. Analysis
May 11, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 11, 2020
The consumer price index likely declined in April for a second consecutive month. Analysis
May 11, 2020

Markets Say Maybe, Fed Says Not
Though some fed funds futures recently traded at a negative yield, NIRP isn't coming to the U.S. Analysis
May 11, 2020

Webinar Replay: U.S. and Canada Outlook, Fragile Recovery
Mark Zandi and other Moody's Analytics experts discuss the COVID-19 economic crisis to date and the shape of the coming recovery. Analysis
May 11, 2020

U.S. Unemployment Is More Than Meets the Eye
The official unemployment rate undersells the true labor market impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Analysis
May 10, 2020

This Week in the COVID Crisis
The economy should turn a corner by Memorial Day. Analysis
May 08, 2020

Stocks Rally Despite Jobs Loss
The latest employment numbers report job gains since February 2011 have been wiped out. Analysis
May 08, 2020

Economic Roundup: Feels Like a Knockout, But There Will Be a Comeback
Employment plummets by 20.5 million in April, but the labor market will recover. It always does. Analysis
May 08, 2020

A Recession Unlike Any Other
The sudden and severe drop in U.S. employment points toward a long road ahead. Analysis
May 08, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Devastating Blow to the Labor Market
Employment was crushed by COVID-19 and the recovery will take years. Analysis
May 08, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: COVID-19 May Have Peaked in Most of Europe
In the U.S., cases are rising exponentially. Analysis
May 08, 2020

Gut-Wrenching April Employment Report
The U.S. went from one of the best job markets ever to one of the worst. Analysis
May 08, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker Update: Taking Stock
Policymakers face new challenges as their economies reopen. Analysis
May 08, 2020

Reopening the U.S. Economy
We constructed a tool to forecast the supply-side implications for employment of states reopening. Analysis
May 07, 2020

Spreads Widen, Defaults Rise as Banks Reduce Business Credit
Standards tightened from the first quarter's 0 percentage point to the second quarter's 41.5 points. Analysis
May 07, 2020

Economic Roundup: Filings for Unemployment Insurance Remain Massive
It's going to take a while for the job market to heal. Analysis
May 07, 2020

Canada Risk Matrix Update: Risks Realized
The economy is headed for a stark recession, with the worst of the stress occurring in the second quarter. Analysis
May 07, 2020

Final Thoughts Ahead of April U.S. Employment
It will have been a month to forget as we look for employment to have fallen by 23.5 million. Analysis
May 07, 2020

Struggle is Real for State UI Trust Funds
California became the first U.S. state to borrow money from the federal government to cover jobless benefits stemming from COVID-19. Analysis
May 07, 2020

Nothing to Cheer About in U.S. Jobless Claims
The rise in continuing claims is troubling. Analysis
May 07, 2020

U.S. Initial Claims Data Cast More Doubt on Reopening Gambit
There is little evidence of an economic resurgence in states such as Georgia. Analysis
May 07, 2020

An Expansion Postmortem: Which U.S. Regions Won and Lost?
Tech and energy economies led the way, but nearly one in four metros never returned to prior height. Analysis
May 06, 2020

Diminished Outlooks for Corporate Credit Soared in March
COVID-19 triggered a surge in the month's number of lowered credit outlooks. Analysis
May 06, 2020

Economic Roundup: Tracking the Financial Relief for U.S. Hospitals
Nearly $72.4 billion from the Provider Relief Fund has so far been allocated. Analysis
May 06, 2020

State-by-State Breakdown of CARES Act Funding to Healthcare Providers
HHS has allocated $72.4 billion to beleaguered healthcare providers amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Analysis
May 05, 2020

Speculation Fuels Latest Equity Rally
The U.S. equity market has climbed by 11.4% thus far in the second quarter. Analysis
May 05, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Nonmanufacturing Got Clobbered in April
ISM nonmanufacturing index posts largest decline on record and it's even worse than it appears. Analysis
May 05, 2020

Round Two of PPP Goes Small
A week in, the second round of PPP is looking a lot different from the first. Analysis
May 05, 2020

U.S. Nonmanufacturing Tumbles for April
Supplier deliveries prevented the ISM survey from falling even further. Analysis
May 05, 2020

U.S. Retailers Lose Pricing Power, Again
The weakening in March was pervasive across major segments, with only a few exceptions. Analysis
May 04, 2020

VIX Hints of Stabilization
The latest consensus forecast has the COVID-19 recession ending around June. Analysis
May 04, 2020

Economic Roundup: Don't Look Now, But We're Tracking Q2 GDP
The initial estimate is likely optimistic, showing GDP tracking -19.1% at an annualized rate. Analysis
May 04, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 4, 2020
Focus will be on damage the COVID-19 crisis has done to the labor market. Analysis
May 04, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Deep Freeze
With shutdowns keeping much of the economy on ice, new data confirm a significant collapse. Analysis
May 04, 2020

The Unemployment Rate Will Undersell the Impact of COVID-19
The scale of U.S. job losses and mandated business closures add complexity to job-loss measures. Analysis
May 04, 2020

Taking U.S. Inflation's Temperature
The COVID-19 pandemic is generating imbalanced cost pressures. Analysis
May 01, 2020

Model Warns of Much Wider High-Yield Bond Spread
The reduction in COVID-19 risks may not follow a straight-line path downward. Analysis
May 01, 2020

Economic Roundup: If You Open, Will They Come?
States are beginning to open but supply may not create its own demand. Analysis
May 01, 2020

Tracking the U.S. COVID-19 Stimulus
Recession is unfolding with frightening speed, but policymakers have deployed economic relief with striking urgency. Analysis
May 01, 2020

Canada Weekly: COVID-19 Hammers Housing
Statistics Canada estimates that the total value of housing permits issued in March fell by 23%. Analysis
May 01, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Services Spending Collapses
Real services spending fell 9.5% in March. Analysis
May 01, 2020

Webinar Replay: COVID-19 Update
We continue to answer economic questions about the coronavirus pandemic. Analysis
May 01, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Countries Look to Ease COVID-19 Restrictions
The virus seems to have passed its peak in the worst-hit European countries.

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