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Sep 18, 2018

Shrinkage of High-Yield Bonds Outstanding Thins the High-Yield Spread
U.S. and Chinese equities get a small lift from trade news. Analysis
Sep 18, 2018

Economic Roundup: The New Tariff in Town
President Trump will impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods imports next week. Analysis
Sep 18, 2018

U.S. Population Growth Slightly Slower
We have a more pessimistic outlook for birth rates than in our prior forecast. Analysis
Sep 18, 2018

More Tariffs on the Way
The U.S.-China trade war escalates with 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports. Analysis
Sep 17, 2018

Tariff worries put a damper on markets again
If recession risks are rising, why did the consensus up its 2020 GDP forecast? Analysis
Sep 17, 2018

Economic Roundup: Counting the Hurricane Costs
Preliminary estimates for Florence are substantial, but the GDP impact will be minimal. Analysis
Sep 17, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Florence Delivers a Black Eye, Not a Knock Out
There's a long road ahead for the affected regional economies, but they will bounce back. Analysis
Sep 17, 2018

Consumer Outlook: Wages to Lead Income Growth in 2019
Wages will have less support from other spending drivers. Analysis
Sep 17, 2018

Preliminary Cost Figures for Hurricane Florence
The estimate of between $17 billion and $22 billion puts this among the top 10 costliest U.S. hurricanes. Analysis
Sep 17, 2018

Stress-Testing States 2018
U.S. states on the whole are better prepared than in the past for a downturn, but some are significantly unprepared. Analysis
Sep 15, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 14, 2018
The NAHB index will likely have slopped. Analysis
Sep 14, 2018

The VIX Is Low, and Spreads Are Thin
Markets see room for growth without the side effect of much faster price inflation. Analysis
Sep 14, 2018

Economic Roundup: Flirting with 4%, Again
U.S. data were solid, bumping up our tracking estimate of GDP. Analysis
Sep 14, 2018

Q3 U.S. GDP Flirts With 3.9%
Consumer spending is strong and inventories likely will provide a big boost. Analysis
Sep 14, 2018

Q3 U.S. GDP Growth Moves Higher
Consumer spending is strong and inventories likely will provide a big boost. Analysis
Sep 14, 2018

Canada Weekly: Trans Mountain Troubles Mounting
Transportation concerns are forcing oil producers to sell at a steep price discount. Analysis
Sep 14, 2018

Wild Swings Within August U.S. Retail
Though the details were mixed, sales suggest spending will be strong in Q3. Analysis
Sep 14, 2018

Bracing for the Next Tariff Wave
Anecdotes from public hearings on proposed U.S. tariffs preview the economic consequences. Analysis
Sep 14, 2018

The Saving Rate for the Young Remains Above Average
Higher U.S. student loan debt is crowding out consumption for those younger than 35. Analysis
Sep 13, 2018

Interest-Sensitive Shares Move in Two Very Different Directions
The recent narrowing of the high-yield bond spread should continue. Analysis
Sep 13, 2018

Economic Roundup: A Little Surprise From August U.S. CPI
Could be time to recall the lesson from the 1990s. Analysis
Sep 13, 2018

Tax Legislation Helps Parts of Business Investment More Than Others
Higher global oil prices, rather than fiscal stimulus, are behind much of the boost in business investment in structures. Analysis
Sep 13, 2018

U.S. Households Fared Well in 2017
Median household income grew for third straight year. Analysis
Sep 13, 2018

Middling Ratio of Net Corporate Debt to GDP Disputes Record Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP (Capital Markets Research) Analysis
Sep 12, 2018

Beige Book Sees Signs of Slowing Final-Product Price Growth
Tight labor markets have yet to stoke consumer price inflation appreciably. Analysis
Sep 12, 2018

Economic Roundup: Focus on Hurricane Florence, Fed's Brainard and PPI
The Fed governor is not sold on the idea of pausing anytime soon. Analysis
Sep 12, 2018

Brainard Dashes Hopes of a Fed Pause in 2019
Her comments highlighted the often overlooked difference between the short- and long-term equilibrium fed funds rates. Analysis
Sep 12, 2018

Economies at Risk From Hurricane Florence
A large U.S. population and key trade arteries are in the hurricane's path. Analysis
Sep 12, 2018

Survey Confirms Faster Spending Growth in 2017
The Consumer Expenditure Survey paints a picture of strong household spending growth but lower income. Analysis
Sep 11, 2018

Profits Growth Facilitates Deleveraging of Corporate Balance Sheets
The ongoing relatively strong performance by small business sales has been striking. Analysis
Sep 11, 2018

Economic Roundup: It's Getting Hot In Here
U.S. labor market is hot, but that doesn't mean overheating. Analysis
Sep 11, 2018

Hurricane Florence and the U.S. Economy
We address some questions about the economics of the storm. Analysis
Sep 11, 2018

Road to Recession: Boom Phase Under Way
The U.S. economy is in good shape and remains in a mid-cycle expansion. Analysis
Sep 10, 2018

Another Day, Another Drop by the Shanghai Composite
Meanwhile, slower growth of residential rents has big implications for core CPI inflation. Analysis
Sep 10, 2018

Economic Roundup: Slow Start to a Busy Week
Key U.S. data this week will include retail sales, IP and CPI. Analysis
Sep 10, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: The Fed Gets the Green Light
Strong U.S. job growth and firming wage growth support the plan to raise rates this month. Analysis
Sep 07, 2018

Faster Wage Growth Sends Housing-Related Shares Sharply Lower
However, rapid wage growth does not always assure rapid consumer price inflation. Analysis
Sep 07, 2018

Economic Roundup: Signed, Sealed and About to Be Delivered
August's U.S. employment report makes a Fed rate hike this month a done deal. Analysis
Sep 07, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 7, 2018
The CPI will be scrutinized even further following the August employment report. Analysis
Sep 07, 2018

Canada Weekly: It's Not Just a Game in Montreal
The video-game industry will continue to play an increasingly crucial role in the future. Analysis
Sep 07, 2018

Saving Rebounds for U.S. High-Income Households
Wealth effect spending is slowing. Analysis
Sep 07, 2018

Finally a Good Surprise in August Employment
Strong U.S. job growth and firming wage growth support the Fed's plan. Analysis
Sep 07, 2018

Operating Lease and Pension Interest Rates - August 2018 Analysis
Sep 06, 2018

More Modest Outlook for Treasury Yields Drives up Utility Shares
The Dow Jones Utility Index is among the U.S. equity markets' leaders. Analysis
Sep 06, 2018

Economic Roundup: There Is Much to Digest
U.S. labor market data were solid, ISM survey jumps, and trade tensions could spread to Japan. Analysis
Sep 06, 2018

Cross-Sector: Market Data Highlights Analysis
Sep 06, 2018

Final Thoughts Ahead of U.S. Employment: Will August Strike Again?
We are taking the under on employment. Analysis
Sep 06, 2018

Trade Deals Are More Symbolic Than Substantive
Tentative agreements don't justify any change to our forecast for the U.S. Analysis
Sep 06, 2018

U.S. Capital Spending Picks Up
There were favorable revisions to core capital goods orders and shipments. Analysis
Sep 06, 2018

There's No Place Like Home for U.S. Investors (Capital Markets Research) Analysis
Sep 05, 2018

Interest-Sensitive Equities Rally on Lower Base Metals Prices
Other equities markets were not as strong in Wednesday's trading. Analysis
Sep 05, 2018

Economic Roundup: More Room for U.S. Trade Deficit to Widen
July's deficit shaved a little off our Q3 GDP tracking estimate. Analysis
Sep 05, 2018

No Help From Trade for Q3 U.S. GDP
The nominal trade deficit widened in July as ag exports slid. Analysis
Sep 05, 2018

Global Outlook: Passing the Peak
The expansion remains robust, but international politics loom as a key downside risk. Analysis
Sep 04, 2018

Economic Roundup: ISM Survey Suggests Manufacturing Is Humming Along
ISM index hits a 14-year high in August. Analysis
Sep 04, 2018

Emerging Markets Worsen as Dollar Strengthens, Base Metals Prices Sink
The August global manufacturing PMI dipped by 0.7 point from a year earlier. Analysis
Sep 04, 2018

Sentiment Boosts the ISM Manufacturing Survey
Uncertainty could be behind the glaring gap between the U.S. hard and soft data on deliveries. Analysis
Sep 04, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Let's Make a Trade Deal
A revised agreement was inked with Mexico, leaving out Canada, as the trade deficit widens. Analysis
Aug 31, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 31, 2018
Employment would have to be a disaster for the Fed to waver on a September rate hike. Analysis
Aug 31, 2018

Economic Roundup: Waiting Impatiently
Markets are looking for the U.S. and Canada to strike a deal. Analysis
Aug 31, 2018

Happy Labor Day From
We will return on Tuesday. Analysis
Aug 31, 2018

Canada Outlook: Goldilocks Growth
Not too fast, not too slow; GDP growth will achieve a more sustainable pace. Analysis
Aug 30, 2018

Economic Roundup: Emerging Market Concerns Intensify
Turkey and Argentina's currencies dropped sharply Thursday. Analysis
Aug 30, 2018

U.S. State and Local Outlook: In Search of the Next Recession
Subnational governments in general did an extremely poor job anticipating and preparing for the Great Recession. Analysis
Aug 29, 2018

Economic Roundup: A Minor Tweak to U.S. Q2 GDP
Growth was revised slightly higher, but pending home sales continue housing's poor run. Analysis
Aug 29, 2018

Nothing to See Here
Revisions to second quarter U.S. GDP were fairly uneventful. Analysis
Aug 28, 2018

Economic Roundup: Trade Set to Ding Q3 U.S. GDP
Growth is now tracking 3.7% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Aug 28, 2018

U.S. Net Exports Make a U-Turn
Trade is shifting from a noticeable support to significant drag on GDP. Analysis
Aug 27, 2018

For North American Automakers, Preliminary U.S.-Mexico Trade Agreement Is More Bark Than Bite
Stricter content rules will not reshape regional supply chains. Analysis
Aug 27, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S., Mexico Strike Trade Deal
Our initial assessment is that the agreement won't materially change the trade balance between the two countries. Analysis
Aug 27, 2018

Economic Roundup: Impact of the U.S., Mexico Trade Deal
Our initial assessment is that the agreement won't materially change the trade balance between the two countries. Analysis
Aug 27, 2018

U.S. and Mexico Reach Trade Agreement
A new NAFTA still requires Canada to return to negotiations. Analysis
Aug 27, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Fed on Course as Economy Grows
Powell leans hawkish, while U.S. housing is in the midst of a soft patch. Analysis
Aug 27, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 24, 2018
We look for second quarter GDP growth to be unrevised between the government's first and second estimates. Analysis
Aug 24, 2018

Economic Roundup: Powell Presses On
The Fed chair reiterated the plan to gradually raise interest rates. Analysis
Aug 24, 2018

Powell Keeps Fed on the Course of 'Gradual' Hikes
Inflation expectations could be an important factor in whether the central bank pauses in 2019. Analysis
Aug 24, 2018

Tighter Lending Standards Hurt U.S. Credit Card Balance Growth
Lenders responded strongly to deteriorating credit quality. Analysis
Aug 24, 2018

Drop in U.S. Durable Goods Orders Masks Favorable Details
Core capital goods orders rose 1.4% in July while shipments gained 0.9%. Analysis
Aug 24, 2018

Canada Weekly: The Scoop on Saskatchewan
The province, with its mix of agriculture and mining, is underperforming. Analysis
Aug 23, 2018

Economic Roundup: Don't Throw In the Towel on U.S. Housing, Yet
New-home sales declined in July, but there is still room for growth. Analysis
Aug 23, 2018

Tracking the Trade War
Our new Tariffs Tracker monitors which industries will be directly affected. Analysis
Aug 23, 2018

U.S. New-Home Sales Slip in July
Sales were down 1.7%, the second consecutive monthly decline. Analysis
Aug 23, 2018

Significant Differences, Eerie Similarities (Capital Markets Research) Analysis
Aug 22, 2018

Economic Roundup: No Sizzle from FOMC Minutes
The Fed signaled a September rate hike but also discussed how to approach the next downturn. Analysis
Aug 22, 2018

Squint to See Revision to U.S. Employment
Preliminary benchmark changes point toward an upward adjustment of 43,000 jobs. Analysis
Aug 22, 2018

U.S. Federal Outlook: A Cure for Medicare?
The pain could worsen quickly for budget makers, healthcare providers and retirees as insolvency approaches. Analysis
Aug 21, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S. Tariffs on Autos Put Into Neutral, for Now
Trade policy continues to keep uncertainty elevated. Analysis
Aug 21, 2018

Outstandings of Single-A and High-Yield Corporate Bonds Shrink Since Year-End 2017
The breadth of the equity market's advance implies that systemic liquidity remains ample. Analysis
Aug 21, 2018

How Likely Is a U.S. Foreign Exchange Intervention?
Trump can influence the Fed via forex policy, but monetary policy implications are insignificant. Analysis
Aug 20, 2018

Economic Roundup: Gone Fishin'
Its a very quiet week, but eyes will be on the Fed. Analysis
Aug 20, 2018

Markets Focus on This Week's Trade Talks and Jackson Hole Symposium
Talks with China will probably prove productive. Analysis
Aug 20, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Powering Through
The economy remains resilient in the face of looming tariff threats and the crisis in Turkey. Analysis
Aug 20, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 17, 2018
The focus will be on the Federal Reserve and geopolitical developments. Analysis
Aug 20, 2018

U.S. Employment Outlook: Party On
Payroll gains have continued to be more than enough to keep pace with growth in the working-age population. Analysis
Aug 17, 2018

Economic Roundup: Inflation, Eh? Canada CPI Jumps
The BoC will take note but may not rush into action. Analysis
Aug 17, 2018

Emerging Markets May Be a Bigger Systemic Risk Than U.S. High-Yield Corporates
Chinese share prices have fallen considerably, Analysis
Aug 17, 2018

Canada Weekly: Pedal to the Metals
Despite tariffs disrupting steel and aluminum trade, the metals industry will continue to thrive. Analysis
Aug 16, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S. Housing Stuck in a Rut
Homebuilding will pick up. Analysis
Aug 16, 2018

Base Metals Prices Partly Rebound From Wednesday's Drubbing
The earnings-sensitive high-yield bond market has yet to panic. Analysis
Aug 16, 2018

Round Two of Trump's U.S. Tax Cuts?
Don't expect the second act of the TCJA to be easy for Republicans.

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