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Apr 25, 2019

Markets Expect High-Yield Default Rate to Remain Under Its Long-Term Median of 3.7%
The U.S. high-yield default rate is likely to fall from its 2.4% average of 2019's first quarter to 2.2% for 2019's final quarter. Analysis
Apr 25, 2019

Economic Roundup: The Last Clue Is In for U.S. GDP
We look for 2.7% annualized output growth in the first quarter. Analysis
Apr 25, 2019

Final Thoughts Ahead of Q1 U.S. GDP
We look for a solid 2.7% gain in GDP. Analysis
Apr 24, 2019

Calendar-Year Profits Outpace Corporate Debt for First Time Since 2012
Futures market gives odds of 61% that the Fed will cut its rate by the end of the year. Analysis
Apr 24, 2019

Economic Roundup: Dovish Bandwagon Adds One More
Bank of Canada is on hold for the foreseeable future. Analysis
Apr 24, 2019

Risks as U.S. Equities Reach New Highs
Fundamentals support further—but less impressive—stock market gains. Analysis
Apr 23, 2019

Lower T-Bond Yields and Wider Spreads Are Likely if High-Yield Downgrades Continue to Double Upgrades
Although markets have largely ignored the jump by the downgrade per upgrade ratio of U.S. high-yield credit rating revisions. Analysis
Apr 23, 2019

Economic Roundup: Some Good and Bad News From March U.S. New-Home Sales
Also, don't look now, but the effective fed funds rate is drifting higher. Analysis
Apr 23, 2019

Stock Market Contributes to U.S. Wealth Inequality
New data confirm growth in inequality, but show it has not been linear. Analysis
Apr 23, 2019

Commodity Outlook: Global Oil Market Surplus Vanishes
OPEC's estimated output for March implies a nearly balanced oil market. Analysis
Apr 22, 2019

Global Business Sentiment Needs to Improve
Investment intentions have fallen to levels last seen in the early part of the expansion. Analysis
Apr 22, 2019

Economic Roundup: Mortgage Rates Will Keep Floor Under Existing-Home Sales
Existing-home sales fell in March but rose 5% at an annualized rate in Q1. Analysis
Apr 22, 2019

Iranian Oil Waivers End
The Trump administration will no longer exempt certain countries from sanctions. Analysis
Apr 22, 2019

U.S. Existing-Home Sales Fall Short of Expectations
Despite the March drop, existing-home sales were up 5% at an annualized rate in Q1. Analysis
Apr 22, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: Bashing the Fed
The economy got a recent lift from the central bank, but the criticism will go on. Analysis
Apr 22, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: First Quarter Shapes Up
The latest tracking estimates of output growth signal that the economy is growing around its potential. Analysis
Apr 19, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 19, 2019
We anticipate that past declines in mortgage rates will push home sales, primarily of new homes, higher. Analysis
Apr 19, 2019

Economic Roundup: Still Waiting
Lower mortgage rates will eventually boost residential investment. Analysis
Apr 19, 2019

Canada Weekly: The Canola Kerfuffle
China launches an attack on Canada's canola industry. Analysis
Apr 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: Don't Call It a Comeback
String of better data has U.S. Q1 GDP tracking 2.8%. Analysis
Apr 18, 2019

U.S. Employment Outlook: An Enduring Expansion
The labor market will face more binding supply constraints as the unemployment rate continues to fall. Analysis
Apr 18, 2019

What Could Have Been
First-quarter U.S. GDP is on track to post a solid gain, but it could have been better. Analysis
Apr 18, 2019

U.S. Retail Sales Should Ease Concerns about the Consumer
The key, control retail sales, rose 1% in March. Analysis
Apr 17, 2019

Economic Roundup: Trade Set to Boost Q1 U.S. GDP
The nominal trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in March. Analysis
Apr 17, 2019

U.S. Trade Deficit Boosts Our Growth Estimate
First-quarter GDP is now on track to rise 2.2% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Apr 17, 2019

U.S. Regional Outlook: Hot but not Overheated
A downturn in financial markets would sting the Northeast, while trade tensions remain an impediment for the Pacific Northwest and Farm Belt. Analysis
Apr 16, 2019

Economic Roundup: Mild Disappointment in U.S. Industrial Production
Production fell 0.1% in March, bucking expectations for a small gain. Analysis
Apr 16, 2019

Manufacturing Hopes to Put Q1 Behind
Its output dropped 1.1% at an annualized rate in the first quarter. Analysis
Apr 15, 2019

Economic Roundup: Nothing to Write Home About
Global business sentiment is stable but soft. Analysis
Apr 12, 2019

Current Upturn's $2.385 Trillion of High-Yield Bond Offerings Towers Over $213 Billion Rise by Outstandings
The U.S. equity market is closing in on its September 20, 2018 zenith. Analysis
Apr 12, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 12, 2019
We look for improvement in housing-related data as past declines in mortgage rates begin to pay dividends. Analysis
Apr 12, 2019

Economic Roundup: Energy Boosts U.S. Import Prices
Higher energy prices will be transitory on inflation; the Fed can sit tight. Analysis
Apr 12, 2019

U.S. Oversupply Will Keep a Lid on Natural Gas Prices
Prices are expected to rise modestly in coming months but remain below $3.25 per million BTU for the duration of the year. Analysis
Apr 12, 2019

Canada Weekly: Mixed News From the Oil Patch
The output cuts hurt now but will help oil producers later this year. Analysis
Apr 11, 2019

Investment-Grade Bond Debt Grows by Less Than $2 Trillion Since June 2009 Despite Nearly $8 Trillion of Issuance
Though higher Treasury yields were to blame for the accompanying 0.1% daily drop by an investment-grade corporate bond ETF. Analysis
Apr 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: Initial Claims Make It Difficult to Worry Too Much About the Economy
With a drop below 200,000, the four-week moving average decreased from 214,000 to 207,000. Analysis
Apr 11, 2019

A New Equilibrium on Oil
Robust U.S. production lowers the trajectory for prices. Analysis
Apr 10, 2019

Economic Roundup: Inflation's Guiding Light
Inflation is increasingly important in assessing where the Fed is headed. Analysis
Apr 10, 2019

Outstandings of High-Yield Bonds Are Now 10% Under Fourth-Quarter 2016's Zenith
The outstandings of U.S. high-yield corporate bonds have now declined from their year-earlier mark for nine consecutive quarters. Analysis
Apr 10, 2019

The Case for U.S. Core Inflation to Move Closer to 2% This Year
Some of the weights on inflation will lift, but the Fed shouldn't and won't respond until 2020. Analysis
Apr 09, 2019

Economic Roundup: The Time Has Come
We have changed our Fed call and now look for no hikes this year. Analysis
Apr 09, 2019

Baa-Rated Industrial Credits Held Up Nicely During 2019's First Quarter
Four of the six downgrades were a result of the California wildfires. Analysis
Apr 09, 2019

Changing Our Fed Call
We now look for no rate hikes this year and one in 2020. Analysis
Apr 09, 2019

Debt Ceiling Tracker: Extraordinary Times, Extraordinary Measures
The Treasury will not exhaust its borrowing capacity until October 3. Analysis
Apr 08, 2019

Economic Roundup: Business Sentiment Hasn't Bottomed, Yet
Brexit's big week and why it will continue to hurt sentiment. Analysis
Apr 08, 2019

First Quarter Was Difficult for S&P 500 Earnings and High-Yield Credit Rating Changes
However, the consensus looks for an acceleration of revenues per share to a 4.9% pace in 2019's final quarter. Analysis
Apr 08, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: The Economy's Still Got It
A run of solid data tempered concerns about a downturn. Analysis
Apr 08, 2019

Operating Lease and Pension Interest Rates - March 2019 Analysis
Apr 05, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 5, 2019
The week is all about inflation. Analysis
Apr 05, 2019

The Average Hourly Wage Slows, but the Employment-Income Proxy Accelerates
The hourly wage's yearly increase eased from 3.4% to 3.2%. Analysis
Apr 05, 2019

Economic Roundup: No Recession Talk at the Dinner Table, for Now
U.S. job growth bounced back in March and though the trend has slowed, it remains solid. Analysis
Apr 05, 2019

Global Outlook: Triumph of Doves
Weakened prospects have forced central banks around the world to press the pause button. Analysis
Apr 05, 2019

Just What the Job Doctor Ordered
March U.S. employment should ease recession concerns while keeping the Fed on the sidelines. Analysis
Apr 05, 2019

Canada Weekly: Economies of Scale on Full Display
The distribution of average firm size is morphing due to structural and cyclical changes. Analysis
Apr 04, 2019

Economic Roundup: More Good News in U.S. Initial Claims
Job market remains strong and we look for a 180,000 gain in nonfarm employment for March. Analysis
Apr 04, 2019

Refinancing Surge of 2016-2017 Helped to Rein in 2018's Net Interest Expense
Net interest expense's annual rise was surprisingly meager given the climb by three-month Libor's yearlong average. Analysis
Apr 04, 2019

Listening to the U.S. Yield Curve
It may be telling us something different than in the past. Analysis
Apr 03, 2019

High Leverage Offset by Ample Interest Coverage
Lower benchmark interest rates will improve the outlooks for both corporate credit quality and the near record-long business cycle upturn. Analysis
Apr 03, 2019

Economic Roundup: Job Engine Losing Steam
Supply constraints and rising costs are tapping the brakes on private sector employment. Analysis
Apr 02, 2019

Economic Roundup: Could've Been Better
Q1 GDP is on track to rise 2%, not too shabby given the temporary drags. Analysis
Apr 02, 2019

Road to Recession: The R-Word Is Premature
Temporary factors have hurt the economy in the short term. Analysis
Apr 02, 2019

Update on the Economic Costs of Closing the U.S.-Mexico Border
Supply chains and cross-border transactions could be damaged. Analysis
Apr 02, 2019

Profits Growth Offsets the Drag of a Record-High Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP
Last year, the yearlong average 10-year Treasury yield of 2.91% trailed 5.2% nominal GDP growth by 2.3 percentage points. Analysis
Apr 02, 2019

Inventory Build Raises Q1 GDP Tracking to 2%
The composition of U.S. growth implies more in the first quarter, a little less in the second. Analysis
Apr 01, 2019

Treasury Yield Curve Is No Longer Inverted
A weeklong inversion falls considerably short of being the harbinger of a forthcoming slump. Analysis
Apr 01, 2019

Economic Roundup: No Joke, Q1 U.S. GDP Looking Better
Consumers are not helping but inventories and construction spending are nudging Q1 GDP higher. Analysis
Apr 01, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Temporary Weakness
Some indicators disappointed due to fleeting factors, but the labor market is sanguine. Analysis
Apr 01, 2019

Not Much Help From the Consumer
U.S. retail sales disappointed, but construction spending jumped. Analysis
Mar 29, 2019

Social Security and Medicare Receipts Approach Record High 20% of Wage and Salary Income
A consumer sentiment survey for March revealed a much improved assessment of household incomes. Analysis
Mar 29, 2019

Economic Roundup: How to Handle Rejection
U.K.'s MPs reject May's Brexit deal, but now circle your calendar for April 12. Analysis
Mar 29, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 29, 2019
A run of solid data would temper concerns about a downturn. Analysis
Mar 29, 2019

Canada Weekly: High-Wage Jobs Take a Hit
January earnings figures show declining wages for higher-paying industries as the economy slows. Analysis
Mar 29, 2019

Let's Talk About the Yield Curve
Recession signal likely overdone unless we talk ourselves into a downturn. Analysis
Mar 28, 2019

Firming of Base Metals Prices Weighs Against Nearness of a Recession
The annual percent changes of world economic growth and Moody's industrial metals price index have generated a relatively high correlation. Analysis
Mar 28, 2019

Economic Roundup: The Calming Effect of U.S. Initial Claims
The trend looks more solid and has distanced itself from our estimate of the break-even level. Analysis
Mar 28, 2019

Q4 U.S. GDP Revised Lower but Trend Remains Solid
The biggest surprise was net exports, now shown to be less of a drag. Analysis
Mar 28, 2019

Cross-Sector: Market Data Highlights Analysis
Mar 27, 2019

Recent Two- and Five-Year Treasury Yields Implicitly Project a Fed Rate Cut
CME Group's FedWatch sees a lower rate by the fall or December. Analysis
Mar 27, 2019

Economic Roundup: Odds of a Fed Rate Cut Are Rising
Fed cut rates in the 1990s when the expansion hit some bumps. Analysis
Mar 27, 2019

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows More Than Expected
Boeing's issues could eventually show up in the trade data. Analysis
Mar 26, 2019

It's What Drives Treasury Bond Yields Lower That Triggers an Equity Selloff
The perception of business activity is what drives both Treasury bond yields and stock prices. Analysis
Mar 26, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fed Bears Some, but Not All, of the Blame
There are other factors that have contributed to the sudden slowing in the economy. Analysis
Mar 25, 2019

Yellen Is Right…Inverted Yield Curve May Imply It's Time to Cut Fed Funds
By lowering fed funds' midpoint to 2.125%, the Fed can lower the perceived risk of a recession. Analysis
Mar 25, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Don't Call It a Comeback
The economy wobbled into 2019 but a turnaround appears to be under way. Analysis
Mar 25, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 22, 2019
Fourth quarter GDP will likely be revised lower, to 2.1%. Analysis
Mar 25, 2019

U.S. Employment Outlook: Immigration and the Labor Force
If all immigration stopped, labor force growth would be cut by more than half in coming decades. Analysis
Mar 22, 2019

Do Not Despair, PHLX Index of Housing-Sector Share Prices Jumps Higher by 1.4% Amid Market Rout
Perhaps a slight and momentary inversion of the Treasury yield curve will not be the precursor to a recession, especially if the FOMC is quick to cut rates. Analysis
Mar 22, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fear and Loathing the U.S. Yield Curve
Some of what ails the economy could be fixed quickly if the trade war were to end. Analysis
Mar 22, 2019

Canada Weekly: Trade-Deal Trouble
Recent political events in the U.S. and Canada lower the likelihood of the USMCA's passage. Analysis
Mar 22, 2019

Big Gains in U.S. Existing-Home Sales and Wholesale Inventories
Inventories are on track to add to first quarter GDP growth. Analysis
Mar 22, 2019

U.S. Manufacturing Breaks Out
The category added almost 250,000 jobs in 2018, the most in three decades. Analysis
Mar 21, 2019

An Aging Workforce Precludes Recurring Real GDP Growth of 3% or Faster
To make America great again, you needed to make America young again. And that is next to impossible. Analysis
Mar 21, 2019

Economic Roundup: BoE Can't Shake Brexit Uncertainty
Even if there is a delay, odds are the BoE hikes rates sometime this year. Analysis
Mar 21, 2019

What We Know About the Fed Balance Sheet
The runoff ends this year, but the composition will continue to shift. Analysis
Mar 21, 2019

Fed's Policy Framework Under Review
Debate will heat up this year, but it may already be influencing some policymakers views. Analysis
Mar 20, 2019

An Extended Shrinkage of Profits Would Prompt a Fed Rate Cut by Year's End
Also, the Fed's less-restrictive tone was not enough to prevent a post-FOMC sell-off of equities. Analysis
Mar 20, 2019

Economic Roundup: Ain't No Party Like a No Rate-Hike Party
'Cause a no rate hike-party don't stop. Analysis
Mar 20, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: Sink or Swim?
The economic expansion should begin to move forward again. Analysis
Mar 20, 2019

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Shoppers Still Benefit From Weak Retail Pricing
The ongoing pressure has hammered sales growth. Analysis
Mar 19, 2019

Global Competition and Workforce Demographics Curb Core Inflation
As advanced economies' share of world GDP dropped over the previous five years, U.S. core PCE inflation slowed to 1.6%.

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