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Feb 20, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: Holding It Together for Now
The economic expansion feels surprisingly tenuous. Analysis
Feb 19, 2019

High-Yield Spreads Will Widen If Downgrades Double Upgrades Through 2019's Second Quarter
Not since the 2.13:1 ratio of 2016's final quarter have high-yield downgrades at least doubled upgrades for an entire calendar quarter. Analysis
Feb 19, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Pep Talk Is Needed
Global business confidence continues to slide but odds are it should bottom soon. Analysis
Feb 19, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Help Still Wanted
The gap between job openings and hires widened, and a few lousy economic reports don't mean an end of the expansion. Analysis
Feb 19, 2019

Helping U.S. Families and the Economy
The Universal Child Care and Early Learning Act would assist households with working parents. Analysis
Feb 18, 2019

Happy Presidents Day
Our U.S./Canada posts will resume Tuesday, February 19. Analysis
Feb 15, 2019

Earnings-Sensitive Securities Often Stumble 12 Months After Very Low Jobless Rate
The median percent change by the market value of U.S. common stock one year after very low unemployment rates shows a 9.6% drop. Analysis
Feb 15, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, February 15, 2019
Odds are rising that the Fed's balance sheet runoff will end sooner than some anticipate. Analysis
Feb 15, 2019

Economic Roundup: Shakened but Not Stirred
The lousy week of data didn't significantly alter our confidence in the state of the economy. Analysis
Feb 15, 2019

Canada Weekly: A Sticky Situation
Canada's maple empire faces growing threats from U.S. producers and climate change. Analysis
Feb 15, 2019

The Political Economy of Trump's National Emergency Declaration
The politics of wall construction eclipse the economics. Analysis
Feb 15, 2019

Is U.S. Auto Credit Quality Beginning to Rust?
It is difficult to argue the loan quality is eroding significantly or signaling a broader problem in the economy. Analysis
Feb 14, 2019

Disappointing Retail Sales Hint of Lower Interest Rates
Soft retail sales reduced the likelihood of a 2019 Fed rate raise and increased the probability of a rate cut. Analysis
Feb 14, 2019

Economic Roundup: Feels Like Being Stood Up on Valentine's Day
Thursday's U.S. economic data was unpleasant. Analysis
Feb 14, 2019

Would Amazon Have Swamped New York?
The retail giant's decision to pull the plug on a Long Island City headquarters has significant ramifications. Analysis
Feb 14, 2019

Q4 U.S. GDP Now Tracking 2%
Retail sales and business inventories disappointed. Analysis
Feb 14, 2019

A Puzzling Plunge for U.S. Retail Sales
The unexpected weakness in December sales was broad-based. Analysis
Feb 14, 2019

Global Outlook: Synchronized Deceleration
Advanced economies will converge toward lower growth as geopolitical uncertainties weigh. Analysis
Feb 13, 2019

Tranches Rated Baa and Single-B Lead January's Newly Rated Loan Issuance
New Baa-grade loans soared higher by 220% from January 2018's $7.75 billion to $24.79 billion for January. Analysis
Feb 13, 2019

Economic Roundup: Energy Prices Continue to Weigh on U.S. CPI
Headline CPI was unchanged in January while the core index advanced 0.2%. Analysis
Feb 13, 2019

Webinar Replay: Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios
We examine details of the Fed's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review stress test for banks. Analysis
Feb 13, 2019

Casualties in the Trade War
Farmers and factory workers get the brunt as the U.S. and China approach the negotiation deadline. Analysis
Feb 12, 2019

Compromise on the Federal Budget Sparks an Equity Rally
However, January's very low U.S. unemployment rate of 4% increases the risk of a higher default rate. Analysis
Feb 12, 2019

Economic Roundup: Talking Fed's Balance Sheet
Fed's balance sheet is not that disruptive while there is progress on avoiding another shutdown. Analysis
Feb 12, 2019

A Quality Adjustment for U.S. CPI
The change for telecommunications services will not significantly impact January CPI. Analysis
Feb 11, 2019

High-Yield Downgrades More than Double Upgrades in the First Quarter
The U.S. high-yield downgrade per upgrade ratio has increased from the 1.45:1 of 2018's final quarter to 2.36:1 for the unfinished first quarter of 2019. Analysis
Feb 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: 'Tis the Season for Tax Refunds
Refunds are only slowly trickling out. Analysis
Feb 11, 2019

U.S. Tax Refunds Are Trickling Out
Refunds are running behind the past several years, and another shutdown would be a problem. Analysis
Feb 11, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Businesses, Lenders Get a Little Jittery
Sentiment among producers and lenders is moderating as conditions soften. Analysis
Feb 08, 2019

Germany's 10-Year Bond Yield of 0.09% Limits Upside for U.S. Treasury Yields
It's the lowest close since October 25, 2016, when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 1.76%. Analysis
Feb 08, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, February 8, 2019
Consumer price index deceleration may worry some. Analysis
Feb 08, 2019

Economic Roundup: Canada Joins the Party
Job growth popped in January. Analysis
Feb 08, 2019

Canada Weekly: Vancouver's looming housing hangover
Large imbalances between supply and demand persist. Analysis
Feb 07, 2019

Lower U.S. Interest Rates May Allay Global Growth Worries
If the latest drop by Treasury yields fails to lift unit home sales, the 10-year Treasury yield may dip under 2.5%. Analysis
Feb 07, 2019

Economic Roundup: The Silent Treatment
Trump and Xi won't meet before the March 1 deadline. Analysis
Feb 07, 2019

Something Fishy in U.S. Employment
Lower response rates will lead to larger revisions. Analysis
Feb 07, 2019

Operating Lease and Pension Interest Rates - January 2019 Analysis
Feb 07, 2019

Equity Analysts' Confidence Contrasts with Economists' Skepticism (Captial Markets Research) Analysis
Feb 06, 2019

Economic Roundup: Still Streaking
String of solid U.S. economic data continues as the trade deficit narrows in November. Analysis
Feb 06, 2019

Speculative-Grade Bond Yield Sinks but Is Up Year to Year
Though the latest spec-grade bond yield is the lowest since October 24, it remains above its February average. Analysis
Feb 06, 2019

The Outlook After Trump's State of the Union
The U.S. president called for bipartisanship but doubled down on the wall. Analysis
Feb 06, 2019

Should U.S. Stock Buybacks Be Restricted?
Share repurchases in 2018 totaled more than $1 trillion. Analysis
Feb 06, 2019

Big Swing in U.S. Trade Deficit
Net exports now appear to be a neutral for growth rather than a drag. Analysis
Feb 06, 2019

Graying of U.S. Population and Workforce Will Rein In Interest Rates
In 2019, the number of Americans age 65 years and older is projected to increase by 1.75 million people. Analysis
Feb 05, 2019

Economic Roundup: Hanging Tough
ISM manufacturing survey suggests the economy is growing above its potential. Analysis
Feb 05, 2019

Trump's State of the Union: What to Expect
The speech will give clues about the budget impasse and the rest of the fiscal agenda. Analysis
Feb 05, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Plenty of Life to This Expansion
We don't believe a recession is imminent. Analysis
Feb 04, 2019

More Banks Widened Than Narrowed Loan Spreads for First Time Since 2010's First Quarter
The net percentage of banks tightening C&I loan standards was the highest since 2016's third quarter. Analysis
Feb 04, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Capital Spending Looking Tired
Factory orders drop in November, suggesting equipment spending in Q4 is coming in soft. Analysis
Feb 04, 2019

Factory Orders Cut Into Q4 U.S. GDP
GDP is now tracking 2.1%. Analysis
Feb 04, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, February 4, 2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release its productivity report for the fourth quarter. Analysis
Feb 01, 2019

Fundamentals Concur With Recent High-Yield Bond Spread
However, car and light truck sales disappointed. Analysis
Feb 01, 2019

Economic Roundup: Time to Table the Recession Talk?
Markets got ahead of themselves, as the labor market shows no signs of weakness. Analysis
Feb 01, 2019

Q4 U.S. GDP Growth Still Tracking 2.5%
Construction spending is not as strong as it appears. Analysis
Feb 01, 2019

Canada Weekly: Business Bankruptcies Down
Lower bankruptcies over the last year underscore macroeconomic improvements. Analysis
Feb 01, 2019

U.S. Labor Market Keeps Rocking and Rolling
The inflation implications are modest, so the Fed can remain on the sidelines. Analysis
Jan 31, 2019

Economic Roundup: The Surprises Keep Coming
The jump in new-home sales and initial claims are misleading. Analysis
Jan 31, 2019

Strong January for Cyclical Shares Reflects Drop in Perceived Recession Risk
The Treasury bond market has yet to evince much anxiety regarding the inflation outlook. Analysis
Jan 31, 2019

Road to Recession: Into the Late Cycle
Financial market conditions have tightened and coincided with a slowing in the economy. Analysis
Jan 31, 2019

Final Thoughts Ahead of January Employment
December's strong U.S. jobs gain isn't sustainable. Analysis
Jan 31, 2019

Over? Did You Say Over?
The Fed pressed pause, but this tightening cycle could be over, or close to it. Analysis
Jan 31, 2019

Cross-Sector: Market Data Highlights Analysis
Jan 31, 2019

Misleading Jump in U.S. Initial Claims
The California teacher strike, rather than the shutdown, was behind the increase. Analysis
Jan 30, 2019

Lower Treasury Yields Spark Outsize Jump by Homebuyer Mortgage Applications
January's 12.8% jump from December by MBA's index of mortgage applications is potentially good news for housing. Analysis
Jan 30, 2019

Economic Roundup: The Power of Patience
Fed strikes a dovish tone. Analysis
Jan 30, 2019

Trump Trade War: An Uneasy Truce
We consider the fallout if current negotiations break down. Analysis
Jan 29, 2019

Business Cycle-Sensitive Shares Lead U.S. Equities in 2019
The equity market believes Treasury bond yields will be flat-to-lower at least until unit home sales enter a recurring ascent. Analysis
Jan 29, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumers Didn't Ignore Shutdown
Conference Board consumer sentiment has dropped over the past few months. Analysis
Jan 29, 2019

U.S. Shutdown Hurts Sentiment, Modestly Boosts Recession Risk
The Conference Board consumer confidence index dropped 17.7 points over the past three months. Analysis
Jan 29, 2019

Commodity Outlook: Finding a Footing
Global oil demand is expected to remain sturdy despite an economic slowdown in China. Analysis
Jan 29, 2019

The Podcast: The 35-Day Shutdown
After the longest government closure in history, how much damage has been done? Analysis
Jan 28, 2019

Low Ratio of High-Yield Bond Offerings to Outstandings Favors Growth
After plunging by 37.8% annually in 2018, high-yield bond issuance may grow by roughly 10% in 2019. Analysis
Jan 28, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Big Week, but a Slow Start
Focus this week will be on employment and the Fed. Analysis
Jan 28, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Shutdown Grinds Some Gears
The labor market is on a strong trajectory, while sore spots have emerged in housing and manufacturing. Analysis
Jan 25, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 25, 2019
January's unemployment rate will likely have risen slightly from December. Analysis
Jan 25, 2019

Economic Roundup: Open for Business, for Now
A deal was reached to end the partial U.S. government shutdown. Analysis
Jan 25, 2019

Projected Simultaneous Increases by U.S. and Europe Default Rates Reflect Global Slack
Unless markets are convinced that any unfolding upswing by default rates will be of limited height, corporate credit spreads could widen considerably. Analysis
Jan 25, 2019

Canada Weekly: Water, Water Everywhere, Nor Any Drop to Drink
In its current state, Quebec won't be able to reap the benefits of its job growth. Analysis
Jan 25, 2019

Evolving Picture of the U.S. Shutdown Costs
Delayed tax refunds and lapsed food stamp funding pose significant, though temporary, risks to growth Analysis
Jan 25, 2019

FOMC Preview: A Pause Isn't the End
The tightening cycle isn't necessarily over, but a restart will be data-dependent. Analysis
Jan 25, 2019

Shutdown Reveals Vulnerability in U.S. Consumer Finances
Many private sector workers are equally if not more exposed to disruptions in their employment and incomes. Analysis
Jan 25, 2019

U.S. Economic Data Affected by Partial Government Shutdown for 1/25/19
Durable goods and new-home sales won't be released. Analysis
Jan 24, 2019

Rating Changes May Keep High-Yield Bond Spread Above 400 bps
The U.S. high-yield downgrade-to-upgrade ratio jumped to 1.45:1 in the fourth quarter. Analysis
Jan 24, 2019

Economic Roundup: No Sense of Urgency
ECB unlikely to hike this year while U.S. lawmakers can't strike a deal. Analysis
Jan 24, 2019

U.S. Economic Data Affected by Partial Government Shutdown for 1/24/19
Industry GDP will not be released. Analysis
Jan 24, 2019

Rising Default Rate May be Difficult to Cap (Capital Markets Research) Analysis
Jan 23, 2019

Latest Two-Week Average for Homebuyer Mortgage Applications Is Best in Years
The latest surge suggests the recent drop by Treasury bond yields might still supply a powerful lift to home sales. Analysis
Jan 23, 2019

Economic Roundup: Waiting for the Refund
White House previously announced IRS would pay refunds on time but that may not happen. Analysis
Jan 23, 2019

U.S. Income Tax Refunds Back in Shutdown's Crosshairs
There could be delays in February, contrary to prior expectations. Analysis
Jan 23, 2019

U.S. Economic Data Affected by Partial Government Shutdown for 1/23/19
No indicators due this day are delayed. Analysis
Jan 22, 2019

Fed Rate Hike May Only Worsen a Downwardly Revised Growth Outlook
Existing-home sales have slowed as well, with affordability playing a large role. Analysis
Jan 22, 2019

Economic Roundup: A December Dud
Existing-home sales dropped sharply, but temporary factors were at play. Analysis
Jan 22, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Shutdown Will Sting
The costs of the partial government shutdown appear to be spreading. Analysis
Jan 22, 2019

U.S. Housing Outlook: The Job Market Effect
Slow house price appreciation hampers job growth in many professions. Analysis
Jan 22, 2019

U.S. Economic Data Affected by Partial Government Shutdown for 1/22/19
No indicators due this day are delayed. Analysis
Jan 21, 2019

U.S. Economic Data Affected by Partial Government Shutdown for 1/21/19
No indicators due this day are delayed. Analysis
Jan 21, 2019

Happy Holiday's U.S. offices are closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. birthday observance. Analysis
Jan 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: 28 Days Later
This shutdown hurts, but a bigger problem is brewing. Analysis
Jan 18, 2019

Deleveraging by Medium-Grade Credits May Extend the Business Cycle Upturn
Consumer sentiment has also reached the lowest level during President Trump's administration. Analysis
Jan 18, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 18, 2019
December may have been an ugly month for existing-home sales.

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