Setup News Ticker
Dec 17, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, December 14, 2018
The Fed will hike rates but will turn dovish in its statement and dot plot. Analysis
Dec 17, 2018

FOMC Preview: A Dovish Hike
Fed will raise rates but signal fewer hikes in 2019 and a heightened sensitivity to incoming data. Analysis
Dec 17, 2018

The Podcast: Inflation and the Trade War
The Federal Reserve is gathering for its final meeting of the year, and Jerome Powell has a lot on his mind. Analysis
Dec 14, 2018

Profit Worries Dispute a 3%-Plus Equilibrium for 10-year Treasury Yield
Political instability is putting downward pressure on U.S. share prices. Analysis
Dec 14, 2018

Economic Roundup: Oy Vey
Worry about the global economy takes a toll on Wall Street. Analysis
Dec 14, 2018

Tariffs Tracker: An Uncertain Truce
The pause agreed by Trump and Xi is a small step, but there's a long way to go. Analysis
Dec 14, 2018

Global Outlook: Summing Up
The year disappointed on some fronts but was solid overall. Analysis
Dec 14, 2018

Q4 U.S. GDP Looking Better Thanks to the Consumer
Real consumer spending is on track to rise 4% this quarter. Analysis
Dec 14, 2018

Canada Weekly: A Move to Shore Up Oil Prices
Alberta producers will have to reduce output by 8.7% for the first quarter of 2019. Analysis
Dec 13, 2018

Economic Roundup: ECB Shuts Down QE
The central bank's balance sheet won't decline soon, therefore monetary policy isn't tightening. Analysis
Dec 13, 2018

Medium-Grade's Worry Differs From High-Yield's Complacency
The investment-grade bond market appears more anxious about the future than the high-yield bond market. Analysis
Dec 13, 2018

OPEC Returns to Form
OPEC producers no longer want a price war with the U.S. oil industry. Analysis
Dec 12, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S. Inflation Front Could Get Interesting
Lower inflation expectations matter, but not a lot. Other headwinds are more problematic. Analysis
Dec 12, 2018

About 24% of Baa3 Issuers Carry a High-Yield Bond Spread
Lower Treasury yields boost mortgage applications. Analysis
Dec 12, 2018

Where the Entrepreneurs Are
Our new broad-based startup rate shows which U.S. metro areas are more truly dynamic. Analysis
Dec 11, 2018

Short-Term Debt Accounts for 31% of Nonfinancial-Corporate Debt
From a historical perspective, the share is far from alarming. Analysis
Dec 11, 2018

Economic Roundup: Keeping Tabs on U.S. Inflation
PPI holds up in November, but further weakness is ahead. Analysis
Dec 11, 2018

Uncertainty Surrounding U.S. Monetary Policy Remains Low, for Now
Uncertainty will likely rise next year, as markets and the Fed differ on rate hike expectations. Analysis
Dec 10, 2018

Housing, Bank, Small-Company Stocks Sink Amid Market's Slight Gain
The now-2.86% 10-year Treasury yield may help to steady the overall equity market. Analysis
Dec 10, 2018

Economic Roundup: Got Us Thinking
Markets now put the odds of a single Fed rate hike next year at less than 50%. Analysis
Dec 10, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Cold Comfort
Weather aside, trend job growth has moderated but remains more than sufficient to lower the unemployment rate over time. Analysis
Dec 07, 2018

Mr. Market May Need Some Hand-Holding From the Fed
Continued weakness may dissuade the FOMC from hiking rates at its next meeting Analysis
Dec 07, 2018

Economic Roundup: A Little Bit Softer Now
U.S. job growth slows but remains strong. Analysis
Dec 07, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, December 7, 2018
The Fed could opt for a dovish rate hike. Analysis
Dec 07, 2018

Canada Weekly: Less Tax, More Borrowing
The government unveils an investment tax break as it faces a widening fiscal deficit. Analysis
Dec 07, 2018

Operating Lease and Pension Interest Rates - November 2018 Analysis
Dec 06, 2018

Reconsidering the Gloomy Assessment of Future Business Activity
Fears of a recession in the near future may be overblown. Analysis
Dec 06, 2018

Economic Roundup: Markets Reassess Expectations for the Fed
Odds of a December hike have dropped, but we are sticking to our forecast. Analysis
Dec 06, 2018

Final Thoughts Ahead of November U.S. Employment
We look for a 205,000 net gain in jobs, but weather is a wild card. Analysis
Dec 06, 2018

A Little Tweak to Our Q3 GDP Estimate
The U.S. September quarter is now tracking 3.5%, while Q4 growth is still coming in at 2.8%. Analysis
Dec 06, 2018

For U.S. Automakers, an Eye on China's Internal Market
A tariff détente would bring benefits, but qualitative measures are of greater concern. Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Foreign Bond Yields Rise Despite Lower Overseas Equity Markets
U.S. markets closed for President George H.W. Bush's funeral. Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Economic Roundup: What if the Fed Pauses?
To make it count, an extended pause is needed, but it could be risky. Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Making a Pause in Rate Hikes Count
If the Fed stood pat only briefly, the economic benefits would be small. Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Don't Hold Your Breath for U.S. Inflation
The tariff timeout and lower transportation costs will limit gains in the core PCE deflator. Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Gauging CECL Cyclicality
The new bank rules will lower odds that the financial system and economy will suffer as it did a decade ago. Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

The Cost of Climate Change
The latest reports warn of steep losses ahead for the U.S. and global economies. Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Canada Outlook: Cause for Caution
The economy faces challenges over the next year. Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

Lower Interest Rates Might Yet Remedy Worsened Business Outlook
Core business sales' annual growth rate fell in October its slowest since January. Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

Economic Roundup: Yield Curve Inversion No Immediate Threat
Despite the compression in the curve, the U.S. economy remains healthy. Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

Yield Curve Fears Return
Recent compression puts odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 27%. Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

U.S. Consumer Is Doing Well, Housing Isn't
Vehicle sales boost Q4 GDP, but residential investment came in weaker. Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

A Path Forward
The first step has been taken to prevent further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions. Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

The Trade War Cease-Fire
Getting China to play fairly in the global economy may have to wait for another day and another approach. Analysis
Dec 03, 2018

Corporate Bond Yield Spreads Show Strongest Correlation with Pretax Profits
The credit market is growing more confident that core inflation will be well contained. Analysis
Dec 03, 2018

Economic Roundup: Pressing Snooze on the Escalation Clock
The U.S. and China will hold off on further tariffs until March 1. Analysis
Dec 03, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Look Who's Talking
Chatter from the White House and Federal Reserve soothes markets, for now. Analysis
Dec 03, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, December 3, 2018
The trade ceasefire is sure to garner a lot of attention. Analysis
Dec 03, 2018

One Small Step
A trade truce has bigger implications for markets than for the U.S. economy. Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Shrinking Core Profits Tend to Quicken Growth of Net Interest Expense
However, comparisons falter between publicly- and privately held companies. Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Economic Roundup: Turning Point for U.S.-China Trade
A comprehensive deal is possible, but we are not holding our breath. Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Road to Recession: It's Supposed to Hurt
The Federal Reserve is attempting to cool the economy. Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

U.S. Housing Supply Gap Continues to Grow
The spread between months' supply of new and existing homes widened further in October. Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Growth Slows in More Countries
The share of decelerating global GDP has reached the highest level in years. Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Acceleration of Decelerating Growth
The share of slowing global GDP has reached the highest level seen in years. Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Whither Trade Relations?
The U.S. and China will explore a trade deal at the G-20 Summit, but we are not holding our breath. Analysis
Nov 29, 2018

Expectations of Slower Sales May Prompt Tighter Cost Controls
Employee compensation is tame despite the very low jobless rate. Analysis
Nov 29, 2018

Economic Roundup: Making Fed-Watching Fun Again
The central bank is gearing up for another step to remove forward guidance. Analysis
Nov 29, 2018

U.S. Consumer Spending Solid in October
Consumers are doing their part while farm subsidies boosted incomes. Analysis
Nov 29, 2018

Don't Worry About the Rise in U.S. Initial Claims—Yet
The rise in initial claims is attributable to this year's early Thanksgiving. Analysis
Nov 29, 2018

Cross-Sector: Market Data Highlights Analysis
Nov 28, 2018

Chairman Powell Calms Mr. Market
The Fed chief's remarks diminished fears of a disruptive ascent by interest rates Analysis
Nov 28, 2018

Economic Roundup: Fixing a Rookie Mistake
Powell corrects his view on where interest rates are relative to neutral. Analysis
Nov 28, 2018

Q4 U.S. GDP Tracking Estimate Slips
Wednesday's data were unfavorable, and the economy has lost a step. Analysis
Nov 28, 2018

Powell Totally Redeems Himself
Comments by the Fed chair were more a correction than a dovish shift. Analysis
Nov 27, 2018

Economic Roundup: Lending a Helping Hand to the Chair
Fed officials are helping to correct Powell's recent slip-up. Analysis
Nov 27, 2018

Higher Spec-Grade Bond Yield May Reduce U.S. Business Borrowing
An even higher speculative-grade yield is favored for 2019. Analysis
Nov 27, 2018

Walking It Back
Clarida is the latest Fed official to temper Powell's earlier hint on the neutral fed funds rate. Analysis
Nov 27, 2018

U.S. Consumers See Strong Labor Market
The Conference Board's labor market differential points toward a drop in the unemployment rate. Analysis
Nov 27, 2018

U.S. State and Local Outlook: As Good as It Gets?
Tax revenues have strengthened, but the pressures of Medicaid spending will not let up. Analysis
Nov 26, 2018

Markets Sense Good News Is Coming on Monetary and Trade Policies
The focus is on possible favorable outcomes from Powell and the G20 meeting. Analysis
Nov 26, 2018

Economic Roundup: Major Hurdles Ahead for Brexit Deal
The ball is now in the British prime minister's court. Analysis
Nov 26, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Fed Tightening Is Supposed to Hurt
It will be painful, particularly for interest-rate-sensitive segments of the economy, including housing. Analysis
Nov 26, 2018

U.S. Investment Taps the Brakes
Fundamentals remain supportive, but business confidence is becoming more cautious. Analysis
Nov 26, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 26, 2018
We expect improvement in new-home sales. Analysis
Nov 21, 2018

Core Capital Goods Orders Slow on Outlook for Business Sales
High-yield default insurance premium rises to two-year high. Analysis
Nov 21, 2018

Economic Roundup: The Fed's Still Got It
Housing is feeling the Fed's pain, but weaker business investment is more about trade than rates. Analysis
Nov 21, 2018

Happy Thanksgiving From
The website will be fully updated on Monday, November 26. Analysis
Nov 21, 2018

U.S. Business Investment Is in a Slump
More troubles are ahead because of the drop in oil prices. Analysis
Nov 21, 2018

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Spending Loses Its Luster
Wealth effects have waned as asset price growth slows. Analysis
Nov 20, 2018

Futures Market, FOMC at Odds on Year-End 2019's Likely Fed Funds Range
Unless the equity market recovers, the futures market should prove the better predictor. Analysis
Nov 20, 2018

Economic Roundup: Not Supposed to Be a Walk in the Park
The Fed is trying to cool the economy, and that causes some pain. Analysis
Nov 20, 2018

Weakening Continues for U.S. Housing Starts
Little improvement is likely through the remainder of this year. Analysis
Nov 19, 2018

Stocks Plunge, but 10-Year Treasury Yield Doesn't Follow
The yield surprisingly ended Monday unchanged at 3.06%. Analysis
Nov 19, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S. Homebuilders' Mood Sours a Little
NAHB index drops in November but remains at a favorable level, for now. Analysis
Nov 19, 2018

U.S. Macro Outlook: Fiscal Follies
Stimulus is supporting growth, but at great cost to the nation's economic health. Analysis
Nov 19, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Spotlight on Inflation
Consumer prices are running right on the Fed's target. Analysis
Nov 19, 2018

What Amazon's HQ2 Choices Tell Us
Costs didn't seem to matter to Amazon when choosing HQ2 Analysis
Nov 16, 2018

For Yearlong Changes, Profits Grow When Capacity Utilization Rises
Stronger capacity utilization will help to ward off a rise in the high-yield default rate. Analysis
Nov 16, 2018

Economic Roundup: Dust off the Fed Decorder Ring
With explicit forward guidance, central bank communication will be all over the place. Analysis
Nov 16, 2018

U.S. Manufacturing Remains on Solid Footing
Manufacturing output rose 0.3% in October even with auto production dropping. Analysis
Nov 16, 2018

Canada Weekly: Manitoba Checkup
Manitoba's economy is slowing, but Winnipeg is outperforming. Analysis
Nov 16, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 16, 2018
We will be watching oil prices. Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

Outstandings of Baa and Baa3 Corporate Bonds Set New Highs
Baa3 bonds are around an unprecedented 56.8% of high-yield U.S. corporates outstanding. Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

Economic Roundup: A Smooth Transition
U.S. labor market is helping support spending as consumers come off a tax-cut sugar high. Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

U.S. Housing Outlook: Prime-Age Adults Have Not Re-Entered the Market
Households headed by those 35 to 64 are the main culprit for sustained weakness in homeownership. Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

California Wildfires' Price Tag Is Steep, and Likely to Rise
The fires' cost will almost certainly surpass $4 billion, perhaps by a large margin. Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

Trimming Our Tracking Estimates for Q3 and Q4 U.S. GDP
The economy has slowed a notch this quarter. Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

U.S. Retail Sales Were Solid, but Signs Emerge That Tax-Cut Support Is Fading
In October, control retail sales were up only 2% annualized over the prior three months. Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

Unprecedented Amount of Baa-Grade Bonds Menaces the Credit Outlook (Capital Markets Research)

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