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With the congressional midterm elections only weeks away, here's how we think things will shake out.
In early spring, Republicans appeared well on their way to steamroll through the midterms and win back control of the House and Senate. Democrats were struggling to compete, weighed down by an unpopular president and sky-high inflation and gas prices.
But as the summer wore on, Democrats' prospects improved. Gas prices dropped, supply chain problems got better and the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade energized their voters - all good news for the party. Some big-ticket Democratic bills that passed Congress in recent months also helped.
Meanwhile, several Republican candidates, particularly Senate hopefuls endorsed by former President Donald Trump, underwhelmed, both on the campaign trail and with fundraising. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) even downplayed his party's chances of retaking the Senate, openly worrying about the "quality" of many GOP candidates.
On top of everything else, Trump's high-profile legal woes have been a drag on his party's midterm hopes.
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But momentum in politics is fickle and can swing back quickly. In recent weeks, Republican candidates have done better in midterm polls and improved on the campaign trail.
So it's increasingly likely that control of the next Congress in January will be split. We anticipate that Republicans still will take control of the House, though they'll likely net fewer seats in the 435-member chamber than we initially expected - 15, versus the 25 sea
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