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Jan 22, 2021

Post-COVID-19, Upside Surprises May Slash Yield Spreads
M2's estimate of systemic liquidity was up by 25.1% year over year, besting its 1983 record. Analysis
Jan 22, 2021

Economic Roundup: Only Higher Mortgage Rates Can Cool U.S. Housing Market
The risk is that house prices increase too quickly this year. Analysis
Jan 22, 2021

Canada Weekly: Is the Price Right?
Inflation in 2020 will end up at just 0.7%, the slowest year of price growth since 2009. Analysis
Jan 22, 2021

Averting an Eviction Crisis
Millions of Americans struggling with the economic fallout from the virus may soon face months of back rent that they can't possibly afford. Analysis
Jan 22, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: ECB Holds Fast on Pandemic Approach
Much of the euro zone remains in lockdown, but may need to extend stimulus soon. Analysis
Jan 22, 2021

FOMC Preview: Monetary Policy on Autopilot for a While
The only potential surprise next week could come from Jerome Powell's post-meeting presser. Analysis
Jan 22, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Struggles With Slow Rollout of Vaccines
In his first full day in office, President Biden takes on the pandemic. Analysis
Jan 21, 2021

High-Yield EDF Now Signals Lower Default Rate Nine Months Hence
Our expected default frequency metric fell to its lowest point since November 2018. Analysis
Jan 21, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Starts Jump but Signs Point Toward Some Moderation
Housing starts leap but gap between single-family starts and permits isn't favorable. Analysis
Jan 21, 2021

U.S. Consumer Auto Lending Finishes a Tumultuous Year With Steady Growth
Auto credit balances were able to rise and delinquencies remained low through the end of 2020. Analysis
Jan 21, 2021

What Is Budget Reconciliation?
Democrats' razor-thin majority put budget reconciliation in play, but it won't be a smooth process. Analysis
Jan 21, 2021

Initial Claims Hint at Trouble Spots Across U.S.
Restrictions and virus spread are both to blame for a pickup in unemployment. Analysis
Jan 21, 2021

State and Local Policymakers Breathing a Bit Easier
Changing assumptions are creating a more manageable mess. Analysis
Jan 20, 2021

January to Date's High-Yield Corporate Bond Issuance Soars
The month's offerings so far include more than $47 billion of new high-yield supply. Analysis
Jan 20, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Housing Coming Off the Boil
The NAHB housing market index drops more than expected in January but remains near historic highs. Analysis
Jan 20, 2021

U.S. Inauguration Day: Trump's Legacy, Biden's Prospects
The Trump era was consequential in many ways, particularly for fiscal policy. Analysis
Jan 19, 2021

Low Ratio of Net Stock Buybacks to Cash Improves Equities' Outlook
Third-quarter 2020 net stock buybacks were the lowest since 2009's third quarter. Analysis
Jan 19, 2021

Economic Roundup: Yellen Wants to Go Big With Stimulus, But Meets Pushback
The Treasury Secretary nominee argues that more support is needed to avoid a slow recovery. Analysis
Jan 19, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Signs the Tide Could Turn
Consumer services will begin to recover as the share of the population that is vaccinated increases. Analysis
Jan 19, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview: January 19, 2021
Initial claims and housing data will be released. Analysis
Jan 19, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Not Out of the Woods Yet
Despite improving economic prospects for later this year, the recovery faces a difficult winter. Analysis
Jan 17, 2021

Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day
Our U.S. offices will reopen Tuesday, January 19. Analysis
Jan 15, 2021

December Retail Sales' Monthly Drop Was Far From Universal
Lockdowns contributed to the divergence of categories that lost and gained. Analysis
Jan 15, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Spending Limps Into 2021
A drop in December retail sales cuts into our tracking estimate of fourth-quarter GDP. Analysis
Jan 15, 2021

COVID-19 Forecast Update: The Race Between U.S. Infections and Vaccinations
Vaccine distribution logistics dictate the speed of resolving the pandemic and economic recovery. Analysis
Jan 15, 2021

Canada Weekly: Bricks or Clicks?
Where are retail trade and e-commerce now, and where are they going? Analysis
Jan 15, 2021

U.S. Retail Sales Drop in December Because of COVID-19
Our estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth fell from 7.1% to 6% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Jan 15, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Democratic Control Changes U.S. Economic Prospects
In Europe, concerns are mounting about the government crisis in Italy. Analysis
Jan 15, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Biden to Deliver Large Stimulus Package
With a Democratic majority in the Senate, we expect a larger aid package this quarter. Analysis
Jan 15, 2021

The Biden Fiscal Rescue Package: Light on the Horizon
With this additional economic support, real GDP growth would be robust at nearly 8% this year and almost 4% next. Analysis
Jan 14, 2021

Economic Roundup: Powell Tests Our Fed-Call Confidence
The Fed could keep rates unchanged for longer than we anticipate. Analysis
Jan 14, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Footprint Shifts Again
The Southwest is the latest epicenter, but the slow vaccine rollout is a concern everywhere. Analysis
Jan 13, 2021

Borrowing Improved Fourth-Quarter 2020's High-Yield Ratings
Some credit rating upgrades were partly due to new loan programs. Analysis
Jan 13, 2021

Economic Roundup: New Year, New U.S. Baseline Forecast
New fiscal policy assumptions cause GDP growth to hit 5% this year and next. Analysis
Jan 13, 2021

U.S. Inflation Heat Map Update
Price pressures remained on a relatively even keel in December. Analysis
Jan 13, 2021

New Fiscal Policy Assumptions Lead to Big Changes in January U.S. Baseline
Our forecast of 5% GDP growth this year and next is even more above the consensus. Analysis
Jan 13, 2021

Oil-Service Company and Bank Shares Lead 2021-to-Date's U.S. Equity Market
The PHLX index of oil-service company stocks is up by 21.2% since the end of 2020. Analysis
Jan 13, 2021

Hard-to-Fill Job Openings Hint of Fast Recovery by U.S. Labor Market
Along with taxes, small businesses say that a lack of qualified labor is one of the biggest problems they now face. Analysis
Jan 12, 2021

Economic Roundup: Rise in Long-Term U.S. Interest Rates Is Good News
Anticipation of additional fiscal support is causing markets to adjust their economic expectations. Analysis
Jan 11, 2021

10-Year Treasury Yield Already Tops Predicted 2021 Average
The yield edged up to 1.15%, which already bests the 1.1% forecasted yearly average. Analysis
Jan 11, 2021

Economic Roundup: Life After the Vaccine
Lots of pent-up demand is set to be released for consumer services. Analysis
Jan 11, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Travel Will Revive
It doesn't appear that the pandemic has caused a huge change in people's willingness to travel, raising our confidence for a spending rebound. Analysis
Jan 11, 2021

Should 3% PCE Headline Inflation Warrant Panic?
Core PCE price index inflation will determine if alarm is justified. Analysis
Jan 11, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 11, 2021
The outcome of the Georgia Senate races and Democratic control of the federal government have a significant bearing on prospects for fiscal policy. Analysis
Jan 11, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: The Recovery Gets a Black Eye
A downbeat jobs report headlined last week's key economic data releases. Analysis
Jan 10, 2021

This Week in the COVID Crisis
Expected fiscal support will quickly boost the economy, pushing real GDP growth to more than 5% for all of 2021. Analysis
Jan 08, 2021

Record Ratio of M2 to GDP Signals Surfeit of Cash
Current holdings of M2-type liquid assets exceed normalized holdings by roughly $3.5 trillion. Analysis
Jan 08, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Market Ends Awful Year on Sour Note
The enormous drop in restaurant employment weighed heavily on the job market in December. Analysis
Jan 08, 2021

Canada Weekly: A Dismal December
Problems in the labor market in December show that Canada's economy is moving in the wrong direction. Analysis
Jan 08, 2021

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Spelling Fiscal Relief
It is difficult to forecast what happens in DC. Analysis
Jan 08, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: More Stimulus On the Way
Now that Democrats have control of the U.S. Senate, more economic aid is likely. Analysis
Jan 08, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Struggles to Avoid a Double-Dip
COVID-19 infection rates are running high in Europe. Analysis
Jan 08, 2021

December U.S. Employment Drop Is All About COVID-19
Vaccines and fiscal stimulus will provide a big boost to the labor market later this year. Analysis
Jan 07, 2021

Markets Climb on Potential Stimulus, Economic Activity
The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 outperformed the general market. Analysis
Jan 07, 2021

Economic Roundup: Trade Will Ding Q4 U.S. GDP
The real trade deficit is the widest it's been since the inception of the data in 1994. Analysis
Jan 07, 2021

Trade May Drag on U.S. Economy More Than Anticipated
Fiscal stimulus and the shift in consumer spending could cause the deficit to remain wide and cut into GDP. Analysis
Jan 07, 2021

Pandemic's Impact on U.S. State Populations
Broad patterns still hold, but economic effects carried the most weight in mid-year estimates. Analysis
Jan 07, 2021

Final Thoughts Ahead of December U.S. Employment
We look for nonfarm employment to have declined by 25,000 and the unemployment rate to rise to 6.8%. Analysis
Jan 06, 2021

Equity Market Surge Helps to Firm High-Yield Credit Ratings
In 2020's final quarter, 15 upgrades were at least partly ascribed to infusions of equity capital. Analysis
Jan 06, 2021

Economic Roundup: Revisiting Our U.S. Fiscal Policy Assumptions
The Georgia Senate elections signal that more stimulus is likely this quarter. Analysis
Jan 06, 2021

U.S. Inflation's Roller-Coaster Ride in 2021
Don't fret too much about the acceleration in the first half of the year; it will be transitory. Analysis
Jan 06, 2021

How Lifting the Blockade Will Change Qatar's Trade
The Saudi-led blockade of Qatar has been lifted but regional trade is likely to evolve slowly. Analysis
Jan 05, 2021

High-Yield Upgrades Exceed Downgrades for First Time Since 2018
During 2020, net downgrades rose to 368 before dropping to -22. Analysis
Jan 05, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Manufacturing Holding Up Well
ISM manufacturing index beats expectations in December. Analysis
Jan 05, 2021

Severe U.S. Service-Employment Decline Bucks History
An effective vaccination effort could result in a speedy recovery for hard-hit jobs that rely on in-person interaction. Analysis
Jan 05, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: A Dim Ending to a Dark Year
The economy entered the new year still struggling under the weight of the pandemic. Analysis
Jan 05, 2021

U.S. Fiscal Outlook Hinges on Georgia's Senate Runoffs
Tuesday will put to bed the 2020 election cycle, with potential consequences for the baseline forecast. Analysis
Jan 05, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Vaccinations Are Behind Schedule
Until the vaccines are widely distributed, the economy will struggle. Analysis
Jan 04, 2021

Business Activity Gets Ample Support from Fiscal, Monetary Policies and Cheap Dollar
The Baa industrial yield ended 2020 at its lowest level since August 1952. Analysis
Jan 04, 2021

Economic Roundup: 2020 Is Hindsight
New year but same economic and public health crises remain. Analysis
Jan 04, 2021

Fiscal Relief Package Lends Upside Risk to the 10-Year Treasury Forecast
Inflation expectations are on the move and could push the 10-year higher. Analysis
Jan 04, 2021

Pandemic Dramatically Alters U.S. Spending Patterns
Some long-running trends were reversed, others accelerated. Analysis
Jan 04, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 4, 2021
Our preliminary forecast is for nonfarm employment to have declined 25,000 between November and December. Analysis
Jan 04, 2021

This Week in the COVID-19 Crisis
For the first time in a long time, risks to our baseline outlook appear more skewed to the upside than to the downside. Analysis
Dec 31, 2020

Happy New Year From Economic View
We will be back on Monday. Analysis
Dec 31, 2020

Canada Weekly: Trade Tumult in 2020
Overall exports fell 7% versus the preceding five-year trend. Analysis
Dec 31, 2020

Inventories Set to Add Even More to Q4 U.S. GDP
Our tracking estimate of the current quarter increases from 6.5% to 7.1% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Dec 30, 2020

Key Questions for 2021
The path of the U.S. economy remains tied to the pandemic and distribution of the vaccines. Analysis
Dec 29, 2020

U.S. Road to Recovery: Stimulus Prevents Double-Dip
If the vaccine rollout sticks to script, the pandemic should be receding and the economy ramping-up in the second half of 2021. Analysis
Dec 29, 2020

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Goodbye to Some Risks, Hello to Others
With the COVID-19 relief and government funding bill, fiscal policy error is no longer a risk. Analysis
Dec 29, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Another Year Over—Mercifully
The economy remains in a precarious position. Analysis
Dec 29, 2020

U.S. Used-Vehicle Prices Cool Down to End the Year
Seasonal price decreases from early fall have accelerated in November and December. Analysis
Dec 28, 2020

U.S. Stimulus Coming as Trump Puts Pen to Paper
Some changes to our baseline forecast are likely needed. Analysis
Dec 28, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, December 28, 2020
The key data will be initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits; they likely rose. Analysis
Dec 28, 2020

U.S. Macro Outlook: Making Our Way Back
There is pent-up demand for activities consumers have been avoiding, and higher-income households have banked considerable financial firepower. Analysis
Dec 24, 2020

Happy Holidays From Economic View!
We will return on Monday, December 28. Analysis
Dec 24, 2020

Economic Roundup: No-Deal Brexit Now Off the Table
The U.K. and European Union agree to a trade deal but it won't eliminate disruptions. Analysis
Dec 23, 2020

Economic Roundup: Where's the Tylenol?
Trump throws wrench in stimulus agreement while there was a flurry of U.S. economic data. Analysis
Dec 23, 2020

Q4 U.S. GDP Looks a Little Lighter
The composition of growth is also shifting as rebuilding inventories will provide a big boost. Analysis
Dec 23, 2020

Which States Struggled in November?
Trends in hospital strain showed strong correlation with November employment growth. Analysis
Dec 22, 2020

Jump in Corporate America's Liquid Assets Is a Favorable Portent
The estimate of these assets this year bodes well for 2021's capital spending and hiring activity. Analysis
Dec 22, 2020

Economic Roundup: Surging COVID-19 Hits U.S. Consumer Sentiment
Consumer confidence index drops in December, but there's no change to the spending forecast. Analysis
Dec 22, 2020

Canada Risk Matrix Update: New Year, New Risks
Vaccine approvals reduced the greatest risks for the Canadian economy, but new risks are appearing. Analysis
Dec 22, 2020

Why We Have a Different View of Where the U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Headed
An increase in the labor force participation rate next year will keep the unemployment rate high. Analysis
Dec 22, 2020

Don't Sweat the Dip in U.S. Existing-Home Sales
Sales are still among the strongest since 2006, and lean inventories aren't hurting too much. Analysis
Dec 21, 2020

Net Stock Buybacks Never Even Approached 2007's Record High
September's 12-month moving average of 2.5% was the lowest since June 2010's 1.6%. Analysis
Dec 21, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Stimulus Likely Helps to Avoid a Double-Dip Recession
The latest round of stimulus will probably require us to make minor tweaks to the baseline forecast. Analysis
Dec 21, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview: December 21, 2020
Consumer confidence and home sales highlight a holiday-shortened week. Analysis
Dec 21, 2020

Replacing Libor in the Global Macroeconomic Model
Our methodology for finding a suitable economic replacement. Analysis
Dec 21, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Tidings of Slowdown and Stimulus
The agreement on additional fiscal stimulus is encouraging given signs of a waning recovery.

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