Setup News Ticker
Mar 27, 2020

Economic Roundup: A Darker Forecast
New April baseline will show a sharp decline in Q2 GDP and a spike in the unemployment rate. Analysis
Mar 27, 2020

Global COVID-19 Tracker: An Economic Counterpunch
Unemployment skyrockets, and there's fear of a second wave in China. Analysis
Mar 27, 2020

Canada Weekly: Jobless Claims Calamity
The record spike in applications indicates that unemployment will soar above 8% and possibly higher. Analysis
Mar 27, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Tops China and Italy in COVID-19 Infections
The economic tsunami rolls on. Analysis
Mar 27, 2020

Fed's Balance Goes Up, Up and Away
Central bank revs up Treasury purchases while discount window and credit facilities are tapped. Analysis
Mar 27, 2020

Market Soars and Spreads Narrow Despite Record 3.3 Million Jobless Claims
Rightly or wrongly, markets sense that America may begin to normalize by the start of May. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

COVID-19: Global Recession Q&A
We answer questions submitted in response to our recent webinar. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

Economic Roundup: Jobless Claims Show Economy Ran Into a Brick Wall
New filings hit a historic high, coming in at over 3 million. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

What the Stimulus Can Do
The need is great because affected U.S. workers are concentrated in industries paying the lowest wages. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker: Hitting a Brick Wall
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits soared to 3.283 million. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

Making Main Street a Priority
Congress is hoping small business treads water until a post-pandemic level of normalcy returns to consumer spending. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

U.S. Initial Claims Show Severity of COVID-19 Economic Shock
New filings hit a record 3.283 million in the week ended March 21. Analysis
Mar 26, 2020

Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETF Soars Higher From March 19's Close
The iShares iBoxx IG corporate bond ETF has soared by 16.7% during the past four trading days. Analysis
Mar 25, 2020

Economic Roundup: Progress, but Not a Done Deal Yet
A fiscal policy response was agreed upon but hasn't been signed, delaying when it will help. Analysis
Mar 25, 2020

A More Somber Tone as U.S. Housing Takes a Hit
Home sales and construction activity will plummet in the second quarter. Analysis
Mar 25, 2020

Washington Shouldn't Rest on Its Laurels After Historic Stimulus Deal
The deal is a crucial third step toward easing the economic hardships to come, but more can be done. Analysis
Mar 25, 2020

Looking for the U.S. Labor Market Impact of COVID-19
A real shock will come when UI claims for last week are released; claims are widely expected to surpass 1 million. Analysis
Mar 24, 2020

Earnings-Sensitive Securities Rebound, but COVID-19 Warns of a Relapse
U.S. common stock jumped upward by 9.47%, albeit from a depressed base. Analysis
Mar 24, 2020

Economic Roundup: Plenty of Signs the U.S. Economy Is Contracting
Survey-based data continue to deteriorate, but to varying degrees. Analysis
Mar 24, 2020

CECL and IFRS 9 Recommendations: Handling Shifting Economic Scenarios
How can filers adjust their loss estimates in a reasonable and supportable manner? Analysis
Mar 24, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Bracing for Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic starts to exact its toll on the U.S. economy. Analysis
Mar 24, 2020

Fed Sparks Big Advances for IG Corporates as High-Yield and Stocks Sink
The Fed will create special purpose vehicles that will purchase investment-grade corporate bonds. Analysis
Mar 23, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed Now Lender of Last Resort for Economy
A historic day that pushes the Fed into uncharted territory. Analysis
Mar 23, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 23, 2020
Key data will be initial claims, which we forecast to have surged in the latest week to exceed 2.7 million. Analysis
Mar 23, 2020

Tax Day Changes in U.S. Could Spell Trouble in Muniland
Fed move is not enough to guarantee liquidity for all issuers. Fiscal policymakers need to step in. Analysis
Mar 23, 2020

COVID-19: Global Economic Tsunami
More financial pain is quickly coming as layoffs mount, businesses curtail investment, and retirement nest eggs evaporate. Analysis
Mar 23, 2020

Webinar Replay: COVID-19, Global Recession
The spreading virus has created a worldwide economic tsunami that is now hitting the United States and Europe with full force. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

Bigger Federal Deficits Do Not Always Promise Higher Treasury Yields
Yields dropped despite an ascent of U.S. government debt from 2007 to 2019. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

Economic Roundup: Turning Off the Lights
The U.S. economy is contracting as some industries are grinding to a halt. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Shutting Down
Large state and metro-area economies and those that rely heavily on tourism are most exposed. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

Global COVID-19 Tracker: Economic Counterpunch
The rising costs have led lawmakers to accelerate and increase the size of their response. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

Canada Weekly: Responding to COVID-19
Parliament is out, but it may reconvene early to speed up action to fight the pandemic and its economic consequences. Analysis
Mar 20, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Tensions High Over Oil, COVID-19
Oil-output talks between Saudi Arabia and Russia have broken down, and COVID-19 cases soar. Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

Average High-Yield EDF Moves Above 10%
This is the first time since the financial crisis that it's reached double digits. Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

Economic Roundup: Initial Claims Sound an Alarm
New filings jump and the worst is still to come. Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

Quantifying U.S. Regional Exposure to COVID-19
A new tool provides a window into which states and metro areas face the greatest economic threat Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

The Road Less Traveled: COVID-19 Hits U.S. Autos
Demand will be sapped not once but twice as the ripples of this devastating virus pulse through the economy. Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

COVID-19 Delivers a Punch to the U.S. Labor Market
Initial claims jumped but the big surge is still to come. Analysis
Mar 19, 2020

Munis Holding Up Better Than Most Amid COVID-19 Crisis
Don't be surprised to see a few defaults in the U.S. along the way. Analysis
Mar 18, 2020

Economic Roundup: Timely Indicators Point Toward Collapse In Parts of Economy
OpenTable shows enormous year-over-year declines in seated restaurant dinners. Analysis
Mar 18, 2020

Recession-Like VIX Favors Higher Equity Market 12 Months From Now
With no end in sight, the market value of U.S. common stock plunged by 5.85%. Analysis
Mar 18, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker: A Devastating Blow
To date, our cumulative lost output estimate is -0.3% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Mar 18, 2020

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Reassessment
A COVID-19 outbreak is occurring, and the economic costs are rising quickly. Analysis
Mar 18, 2020

Virus Alters U.S. Consumer Spending
Last week saw a massive shift toward discount stores. Analysis
Mar 17, 2020

Economic Roundup: Confidence Sending an Ominous Sign
New York Fed's nonmanufacturing survey fell sharply in March. Analysis
Mar 17, 2020

Economic Roundup: Confidence Sends an Ominous Sign
New York Fed's nonmanufacturing survey falls sharply for March. Analysis
Mar 17, 2020

Stocks Soar as Trump Seeks $1 Trillion Antidote to COVID-19
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 1.09%. Analysis
Mar 17, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Eerie Calm Before the Storm
The U.S. is only just starting to feel the economic fallout of COVID-19. Analysis
Mar 17, 2020

Metals Are Not Oil
Prices will fall but by less than crude oil. Analysis
Mar 16, 2020

Trump's Latest COVID-19 Warning Sinks Markets
New record-high VIX warns of much wider corporate bond spreads. Analysis
Mar 16, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed Does All It Can, Up to Congress Now
After using most of its tools, the Fed has some left. Analysis
Mar 16, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed Reserved to Coming Off the Bench
After using most of its tools, the Fed has some left. Analysis
Mar 16, 2020

New York's Falling Index a Sign of What Is to Come
The Empire State manufacturing survey tanked in March. Analysis
Mar 16, 2020

A Word of Caution About the U.S. High-Frequency GDP Model
Little source data released for GDP are capturing the impact of COVID-19. Analysis
Mar 16, 2020

Fed Passes Baton to Fiscal Policy
The Fed is going big, but it can't control fiscal policy. Analysis
Mar 16, 2020

COVID-19: Darkening Global Outlook
The more widespread and virulent the virus, the greater the odds of a global downturn and the weaker the subsequent recovery. Analysis
Mar 16, 2020

COVID-19: A Fiscal Stimulus Plan
The onus is on the Trump administration and Congress to provide economic support. Analysis
Mar 16, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 16, 2020
We will be watching initial claims. Analysis
Mar 16, 2020

Coronavirus Impact on U.S. Consumers Not Uniform
Some are hurt worse than others, and there are some offsetting positives. Analysis
Mar 16, 2020

What Caused the Oil Shock, and What Happens Next
It is up to Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. government to determine the oil market's path. Analysis
Mar 13, 2020

U.S. Equity Market Soars Higher by 9% on Friday the 13th
Friday's drop by the VIX favors lower EDFs. Analysis
Mar 13, 2020

Economic Roundup: Trump Makes Full Use of His Mulligan
The president declares a national emergency along with fiscal stimulus. Analysis
Mar 13, 2020

COVID-19 Tracker: Time to Re-evaluate
The economic costs have risen in the U.S. with the calls for citizens to practice social distancing. Analysis
Mar 13, 2020

Oil Market Sails Through a Sea of Uncertainty
Downside risks abound to our sanguine forecast. Analysis
Mar 13, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Oil-Price Plunge, COVID-19 Batter World Economies
With COVID-19 savaging demand, the last thing oil producers needed was a supply shock. Analysis
Mar 13, 2020

Canada Weekly: Rough Patch Ahead for the Oil Patch
A recession in the oil-producing provinces is almost guaranteed. Analysis
Mar 13, 2020

Social Distancing and U.S. Consumer Spending
Some segments of spending will decline sharply. Analysis
Mar 13, 2020

COVID-19 Lowers Our Forecasts
The March baseline has global real GDP growth of 1.9%, compared with 2.4% in the February baseline. Analysis
Mar 12, 2020

A World of Couch Potatoes Wreaks Havoc on Markets
Policies to limit the virus are more important to markets than fiscal or monetary programs. Analysis
Mar 12, 2020

Economic Roundup: Policy Flops
Trump's proposal underwhelms, and the ECB did not go all in. Analysis
Mar 12, 2020

Assessing the Costs and Benefits of a U.S. 0% Payroll Tax Rate
Fiscal policymakers should worry more about its effectiveness than its price tag. Analysis
Mar 12, 2020

What the Fed Did and Didn't Do
It is not QE and not designed to stimulate the economy. Analysis
Mar 12, 2020

U.S. Recessions We Have Known
We are not adopting a recession as the baseline yet, but risks of a downturn are rising quickly. Analysis
Mar 12, 2020

Canada Forecast Revisions: Outbreak Fallout
COVID-19 has spurred significant changes to the outlook over the last two months. Analysis
Mar 12, 2020

CRE Is Not Immune From COVID-19
The degree to which the fall is cushioned varies by property type. Analysis
Mar 12, 2020

Trump's COVID-19 Response Falls Short
Without a large, thought-out stimulus package, recession looks increasingly likely. Analysis
Mar 12, 2020

2020 Election Tracker Update: From Impeachment to COVID-19
U.S. political news coverage has shifted dramatically to the frantic scramble over the coronavirus. Analysis
Mar 12, 2020

Markets Give The Fiscal Stimulus Proposal Two Thumbs Down
There were some hits but more misses. Analysis
Mar 11, 2020

Baa's Now Fare Worse Than High Yield
Short-term economic pain now is preferable to a long-term contraction. Analysis
Mar 11, 2020

Economic Roundup: Go Big or Go Home
The U.K. launches fiscal stimulus and the BoE cuts interest rates. Analysis
Mar 11, 2020

Census Hiring and COVID-19
The tight labor market and coronavirus risks will weigh on recruitment. Analysis
Mar 11, 2020

COVID-19: The Policy Response
The White House and Congress need to act quickly. Analysis
Mar 11, 2020

The Economic Impact of COVID-19 Under Alternative Scenarios: Q&A
We answer questions submitted in response to our recent webinar. Analysis
Mar 11, 2020

How Our U.S. Baseline Forecast Has Changed
The first half of this year will be dicey; the policy response is key. Analysis
Mar 11, 2020

Global Outlook: Knocked Off Course
COVID-19 has battered global growth expectations for 2020. Analysis
Mar 10, 2020

Durability of Relief Rally in Doubt
The U.S. equity market would need to sink by another 17.4% to return to its 2018 low. Analysis
Mar 10, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Crafting Fiscal Policy Response
Trump floats the possibility of a 0% payroll tax rate. Analysis
Mar 10, 2020

Coronavirus Comes to Muniland
The flurry of activity in financial markets is a boon to U.S. muni investors who saw prices rise to their highest levels in decades. Analysis
Mar 09, 2020

Black and Blue Monday
COVID-19 fears and a crude oil plunge set markets panicking. Analysis
Mar 09, 2020

Economic Roundup: No Need to Leave Any Powder Dry
The central bank is headed to a 0% fed funds rate. Analysis
Mar 09, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 9, 2020
All eyes will remain on financial markets and whether the Federal Reserve opts to cut rates again ahead of its March meeting. Analysis
Mar 09, 2020

U.S. Regional Recession Risks Widen
The oil price collapse drags energy states into the coronavirus morass. Analysis
Mar 09, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Bittersweet Employment and Housing Reports
Upbeat incoming data don't capture the expanding global reach of COVID-19. Analysis
Mar 09, 2020

Fallout From the Oil Shakeout
Oil's swoon yields three key consequences. Analysis
Mar 09, 2020

U.S. Macro Outlook: COVID-19 Loss of Faith
Whether the economy crosses from expansion to recession may depend on the response of lawmakers and the White House. Analysis
Mar 09, 2020

The Oil Price Forecast
Get ready for oil in the $30s. Analysis
Mar 09, 2020

Time May Not Be on the Fed's Side
They will have to be aggressive at their March meeting, if not sooner. Analysis
Mar 09, 2020

Tanking Oil Prices Could Push the Fed to Be More Aggressive
The list of weights on the economy are quickly adding up. Analysis
Mar 06, 2020

Economic Roundup: Don't Wait for Monthly Employment, Watch Jobless Claims
Job growth in February was strong but that was before COVID-19 came to the U.S. Analysis
Mar 06, 2020

COVID-19 Tracker: Engulfed
Global recession odds have increased with the number of countries and confirmed patients continuing to rise.

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