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Aug 03, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Dealing With Delta
Asian economies are struggling against the spread of the COVID-19 variant. Analysis
Aug 03, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Back to Square One
The economy is booming, but supply-side constraints continue to put pressure on prices. Analysis
Aug 02, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey Weathers Storm
The strongest growth this cycle could be behind us, but the outlook remains bright. Analysis
Aug 02, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 17—ECI and ECB
What is the latest on inflation, and when will business travel begin to ramp up? Analysis
Aug 02, 2021

U.S. Debt Ceiling Tracker Update: The Clock Is Ticking
We estimate that if Congress does not act, the Treasury will hit the debt limit on November 18. Analysis
Jul 30, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Core Inflation Hot, but Not as Hot as Feared
The core PCE deflator rose 0.5% in June, leaving it up 3.5% on a year-ago basis. Analysis
Jul 30, 2021

Capital Market View: Labor Supply Putting Upward Pressure on Wages
Though wage growth is strong, it's likely it will not set a wage-price spiral into motion. Analysis
Jul 30, 2021

Capital Markets View: Labor Supply Putting Upward Pressure on Wages
Though wage growth is strong, it's likely it will not set a wage-price spiral into motion. Analysis
Jul 30, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Fed Tapering Clarity Is Coming
The Fed will likely announce its plans in September. Analysis
Jul 30, 2021

Canada Weekly: Feeling Unfulfilled
Supply-chain bottlenecks and wage pressures give inflation some persistence. Analysis
Jul 29, 2021

Economic Roundup: Kicking Some U.S. GDP Down the Road
Inventories were a big drag in Q2 but will add to growth later. Analysis
Jul 29, 2021

Commuting in the Work-From-Anywhere Age
The gap between daytime and full-time population portends modest trouble for some big U.S. cities. Analysis
Jul 28, 2021

Economic Roundup: One Small Step Toward Tapering
The Fed is taking actions to make sure the tapering doesn't catch anyone off guard. Analysis
Jul 28, 2021

Capital Market View: Was It Hawkish or Dovish?
The Fed's statement was interpreted differently by the bond market. Analysis
Jul 28, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Vaccines Keep European Outlook Healthy
But the Continent still faces some vaccine hesitancy. Analysis
Jul 28, 2021

Final Thoughts Ahead of Q2 U.S. GDP
We now look for a 7.6% annualized gain, but watch the annual revisions. Analysis
Jul 27, 2021

Economic Roundup: Streak of Disappointment Continued, Then Ended
Durable goods were a letdown, but consumer confidence unexpectedly increased. Analysis
Jul 27, 2021

Capital Market View: U.S. Confidence Doesn't Alter Spending Forecast
Relationship between spending and confidence is loose in the short run. Analysis
Jul 27, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: What's Next for Yields, Housing?
There were bits of good news for future residential construction in last week's housing data. Analysis
Jul 27, 2021

U.S. Risk Matrix: Delta Variant, Cyberattacks Added as Downside Risks
The Delta variant should not have enormous economic costs, thanks to vaccinations. Analysis
Jul 27, 2021

What to Expect: Semiconductor Chip Shortage
Why the shortage won't be equal across industries and sectors. Analysis
Jul 26, 2021

Economic Roundup: After the Boom, Housing Not Set to Bust
U.S. new-home sales fell unexpectedly in June to their lowest since early last year. Analysis
Jul 26, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, July 26, 2021
Tapering for the Fed will remain "a ways off." Analysis
Jul 26, 2021

The Case for a Post-Pandemic Productivity Boom
The U.S. economy may be poised to begin a period of accelerated productivity growth. Analysis
Jul 26, 2021

Capital Market View: Don't Hold Your Breath for Taper Clarity
The first hint of tapering is still a couple of meetings off. Analysis
Jul 26, 2021

This Week in the COVID-19 Recovery
Delta-variant fears seem to have receded, but remain a risk to the economy. Analysis
Jul 23, 2021

Canada Weekly: Staying Put
Labor Force Survey population estimates reveal disruptions to internal migration. Analysis
Jul 23, 2021

Economic Roundup: Delta Bad Hand?
Delta variant is a downside risk to the U.S. forecast, but there are few signs it's hurting. Analysis
Jul 23, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Pandemic Economic Relief Peaking
Without the aid, GDP would be about 7.5% smaller in the second and third quarters. Analysis
Jul 22, 2021

Economic Roundup: All Noise, No Signal
Increase in initial claims is no cause for concern and not tied to the COVID-19 Delta variant. Analysis
Jul 22, 2021

Canada Risk Matrix Update: Optimism Rising for Second Half
Stellar vaccination rates bolster the outlook for the months ahead. Analysis
Jul 22, 2021

Capital Market View: M&A Activity Remains Hot
M&A was cited frequently as the use of proceeds from bond issuance in Q2. Analysis
Jul 22, 2021

Regional Tourism in the Age of Covid: Bad and Worse
The demise of international and business travel has hit some U.S. metro areas harder than others. Analysis
Jul 21, 2021

U.S. Used-Vehicle Demand Decelerates
Economic gravity has caught up to the market. Analysis
Jul 21, 2021

Economic Roundup: Fiscal Impulse Peaking as Congress Gets Down to Business
Washington DC weighs Biden's Build Back Better agenda and Fed Chairman Powell's renomination. Analysis
Jul 21, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Delta Testing
The steepest increases in cases are in states where vaccination rates are the lowest. Analysis
Jul 21, 2021

Capital Market View: Momentum Everywhere?
Positive momentum can't last forever. Analysis
Jul 21, 2021

Macroeconomic Consequences of the Infrastructure and Budget Reconciliation Plans
Greater investments in U.S. public infrastructure and social programs will lift productivity and labor force growth. Analysis
Jul 20, 2021

Economic Roundup: On Its Way
Additional new-home supply in the U.S. is coming, although the timing is unclear. Analysis
Jul 20, 2021

Capital Market View: Assessing Delta-Variant Risks to U.S. Economy
Based on the U.K. experience so far, the drag on the U.S. economy should be modest. Analysis
Jul 20, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Distribution Issues
The rapid spread of the Delta variant is causing jitters in markets and prompting renewed restrictions. Analysis
Jul 20, 2021

U.S. Employment Outlook: Surge of Opportunity
Constraints to labor market participation should fall away with the reopening of schools in the fall and an increase in vaccinations. Analysis
Jul 20, 2021

U.S. Consumers Paying More at the Pump
Gasoline prices were last this high in 2014. Analysis
Jul 19, 2021

Economic Roundup: Delta-Variant Worries Slam Stocks, Bonds
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield could drop to 1% before it bottoms. Analysis
Jul 19, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Tracking Delta
The economic recovery is on solid ground, but the variant represents a growing downside risk. Analysis
Jul 19, 2021

Capital Market View: Corporate Bonds Not Immune to Equities' Wild Ride
Rising volatility in the equity market signals that corporate bond spreads could widen. Analysis
Jul 19, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, July 19, 2021
The acceleration in U.S. consumer prices isn't over. Analysis
Jul 19, 2021

U.S. Credit Outlook: Consumer Lending Heats Up
Mortgage balance growth has been strongest in the South, mirroring unemployment rate data showing the region's job market has been stronger than the nation's overall. Analysis
Jul 19, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 15—China, and Cris Votes No
Does the performance of China's economy's presage what's coming for the U.S.? Analysis
Jul 16, 2021

Economic Roundup: Surprise Increase in U.S. Retail Sales
Consumers keep doing their part. Analysis
Jul 16, 2021

Canada Weekly: A Rock and a Hard Place
Supply chain issues and so-so aggregate demand growth have been a headwind to manufacturing. Analysis
Jul 16, 2021

Capital Market View: What a Run
Momentum has helped to support the bull market. Analysis
Jul 16, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Growth Slowed but Remains Strong
The BoJ decided to keep its policy steady. Analysis
Jul 15, 2021

Economic Roundup: What a Day
Many key economic data for the U.S. and China were released on Thursday. Analysis
Jul 15, 2021

Capital Market View: Not the Surprises Markets Want
Global economic data have come in weaker than expected, but don't be gloomy on the outlook. Analysis
Jul 15, 2021

State UI Cuts Don't Look Like the Answer
Numerous real-time sources show practically no benefit from ending additional $300 per week so far. Analysis
Jul 14, 2021

Economic Roundup: Powell Preaches Patience
He isn't ready to taper yet but some inflation jitters creep into his comments. Analysis
Jul 14, 2021

Capital Market View: Greening QE
The ECB will be more involved in the rapidly growing ESG-linked bond market. Analysis
Jul 14, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Cooler Growth, Cooler Inflation Ahead
The reopening of the economy and new- and-used-vehicle prices were responsible for 55.6% of the increase in the headline CPI in June. Analysis
Jul 14, 2021

U.S. Inflation Heat Map Update
Despite an eye-catching 0.9% increase, temporary factors kept driving CPI higher in June. Analysis
Jul 14, 2021

Distribution of U.S. Excess Saving
The money is mostly held by older, higher-income households; will they spend it? Analysis
Jul 13, 2021

Economic Roundup: Feeding the Transitory Narrative
The June CPI details strengthen the narrative that temporary factors are juicing inflation. Analysis
Jul 13, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: The Delta Threat
Infections are ramping up across Europe. Analysis
Jul 13, 2021

Capital Market View: Bond Market Gives Cold Shoulder to Hot CPI
The bulk of the increase was once again in used cars and reopening segments. Analysis
Jul 12, 2021

Economic Roundup: Another Month, Another Hot U.S. CPI Print
We look for the CPI to have risen 0.7% in June, stronger than the consensus. Analysis
Jul 12, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Fed Doesn't Rock the Boat
While there are signs the recovery has passed its peak growth period, the Fed is in no rush to begin tapering its monthly asset purchases. Analysis
Jul 12, 2021

Capital Market View: Debt Ceiling Could Limit Rise in 10-Year This Month
Treasury has to cut its cash balance at the Fed by $300 billion by the end of this month. Analysis
Jul 12, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, July 12, 2021
Our GDP forecast for this year saw a small downward revision, the first in a while. Analysis
Jul 12, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 14—Confidence and Consumer Spending Momentum
A well functioning payment system that removes friction for people doing commerce enables economic growth. Analysis
Jul 12, 2021

Global Outlook: Emerging Disparities
Ongoing lockdowns are illustrative of the difficulties emerging from the pandemic and getting economies on a sustained recovery path. Analysis
Jul 11, 2021

This Week in the COVID Recovery
Interest rates are tied to the economy's long-term growth—and they are headed higher. Analysis
Jul 09, 2021

Economic Roundup: China's Inflation Remains Tame
China's CPI was up 1.1% on a year-ago basis in June and will move lower over the next few months. Analysis
Jul 09, 2021

Canada Weekly: Chipping Away
In April—the most recent month of data—manufacturing sales in the auto industry plummeted a drastic 37% compared with March. Analysis
Jul 09, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Future U.S. Infrastructure Spending Reduced
Our forecast is down slightly from a total of $1.5 billion to $1.4 billion. Analysis
Jul 08, 2021

Economic Roundup: Initial Claims Tick Higher; 10-year U.S. Treasury Yield Moves Even Lower
Don't read too much into claims while concerns about the Delta variant are weighing on yields. Analysis
Jul 08, 2021

Capital Market View: Forecast Tweak Has High-Yield Spreads Tighter
Spreads will remain tight in the second half of this year, but will widen in 2022. Analysis
Jul 08, 2021

New Fiscal Assumptions, Modest Tweaks to July U.S. Baseline
There was a small downward revision to our GDP forecast for this year, the first in a while. Analysis
Jul 08, 2021

July Baseline Lowers Household Formation Forecast
More Americans are living in multigenerational homes either by choice or necessity. Analysis
Jul 08, 2021

South Bears Brunt of New Virus Cases
U.S. regional and local infection rates and economic data depend much on the uptake of vaccinations. Analysis
Jul 07, 2021

Economic Roundup: FOMC Minutes Don't Alter Taper Timeline
Fed still on track to taper early next year and it's betting on inflation being transitory. Analysis
Jul 07, 2021

Capital Market View: A Reverse Taper Tantrum?
The Treasury has drawn down its General Account faster than expected. Analysis
Jul 07, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Euro Cases Up, Delta Dominant in U.S.
The 'Phuket sandbox' could become a model for other vacation hotspots in Asia. Analysis
Jul 06, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey Rattles Bond Market
There are more signs that the U.S. economy's peaking is pushing long-term rates lower. Analysis
Jul 06, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, July 6, 2021
June's jobs report impressed...mostly. Analysis
Jul 06, 2021

Capital Market View: A Look at June Issuance
Can't keep pace with 2020, but still on track for a potent year. Analysis
Jul 06, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Off and Running
A stronger-than-expected jobs report capped off last week's packed release calendar. Analysis
Jul 02, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Job Growth Accelerates but Details Temper Enthusiasm
The workweek fell, long-term unemployed rose, and the participation rate didn't change. Analysis
Jul 02, 2021

Happy Fourth of July
Our U.S. offices will be closed Monday, July 5 in observance. Analysis
Jul 02, 2021

U.S. Jobs Report, Cont'd
The net gain of 850,000 was higher than our above-consensus forecast of 750,000 and marks the biggest monthly gain since August. Analysis
Jul 02, 2021

Canada Weekly: Plane, Train and Automobile Traffic
Airlines have held onto their staff, expecting a rebound. Analysis
Jul 02, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Growth May Have Peaked
Labor force participation remains lower than before the pandemic. Analysis
Jul 02, 2021

Capital Market View: Still Walking Rather Than Running
For each detail in the employment report that was encouraging, we can find one that wasn't. Analysis
Jul 01, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey Hints at Peak Growth
Strongest growth this cycle could be behind us, but growth will remain very strong. Analysis
Jul 01, 2021

Capital Market View: U.S. Employment Reports Could Cause Indigestion
Bond market has digested the reports well this year, but that could change going forward. Analysis
Jul 01, 2021

Final Thoughts Ahead of June U.S. Employment
We look for a 750,000 net gain and a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.6%. Analysis
Jun 30, 2021

Economic Roundup: No U.S. Labor Market Surprise, but Twist on Housing Front
ADP report shows solid gain in U.S. employment while pending home sales unexpectedly jumped. Analysis
Jun 30, 2021

Measures of U.S. Consumer Confidence Diverge
The Conference Board index is unique in approaching pre-pandemic levels. Analysis
Jun 30, 2021

Capital Market View: Employment Revisions Often Ignored
With lots of churn in the job market, first prints of employment could be less reliable. Analysis
Jun 29, 2021

Economic Roundup: Didn't See This During the Last Expansion
Consumers' assessment of the labor market is the highest it's been since 2000. Analysis
Jun 29, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Still On Track
Economic stress from price pressures remains localized.

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