NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2019

Low Inflation Expectations Imply Fed Can Be Quick With Rate Cut
The five-year TIPS contract now puts the expected annual rate of CPI inflation just under 1.6%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2019

Economic Roundup: Not Enough to Sway the Fed
Firming U.S. inflation will not divert the Federal Reserve from its current course.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2019

Budget Deadlines on Collision Course With Impeachment Hearings
U.S. lawmakers must pass another short-term spending bill next week to prevent a shutdown.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

Economic Roundup: Some Temporary U.S. Economy Drags Are Lifting
The resolution of the UAW strike should boost manufacturing in November and December.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

U.S. High-Yield Downgrade per Upgrade Ratio May Ease for Third Straight Quarter
The high-yield default rate of U.S. issuers rose from October 2018's 3.16% to October's 3.56%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

Trade Troubles on the Farm
Recent data highlight the extent of the trade war's damage to the U.S. farm sector.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: No Warning Bells
Minor disappointments indicate a slowing economy but are not a cause for alarm.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

Loan Spreads Remain Well Above Bond Spreads for High-Yield Credits
The average high-yield loan spread was 58 bps wider than Barclays average high-yield bond spread.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: Not Much to Like in U.K. Q3 GDP
The U.K. dodged a technical recession, but Brexit continues to hurt.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 11, 2019
Key data coming up include retail sales, consumer and producer prices, industrial production, and business inventories.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Lowest Ratio of Riskiest Bonds to Outstanding High-Yield Bonds Since 1987
Third-quarter 2019's $1.256 trillion of outstanding high-yield U.S. corporate bonds included $319 billion of bonds from the riskiest credit ratings.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Economic Roundup: 10-Year Is Streaking
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has continued its tear.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Canada Weekly: Trading Down
Cooling of international trade may trigger a slowdown despite strong Q2 growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Is the Fed Killing the Signal From the Yield Curve?
Long-term rates have risen, helping steepen the yield curve, but there could be a cost.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Global Outlook: Sinking in Uncertainty
Growth has slowed in 2019, and will remain below potential in 2020.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: 15 Asian Nations Agree to New Trade Pact
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership represents the world's largest trade deal.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Spreads Narrow for 71% of Yearly Advances by Broad Equity Market
An easing of recession risk has driven benchmark bond yields higher.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Economic Roundup: Figuring Out U.S. Unemployment's Message
We will watch initial claims, but they are not perfect.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Economic Roundup: Figuring Out Unemployment's Message
We will watch initial claims, but they are not perfect.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Updated U.S. Risk Matrix: A Little Less Threatening
There have been some positive developments with regard to the U.S.-China trade tensions and Brexit.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

U.S. Investment-Grade Corporate-Bond Issuance Has Been Led by Single-A
These bonds have advanced by 28.4% annually to $396 billion in 2019.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Moving on From Late-Stage Expansion
We now put the economy at risk of a recession, but that does not mean it is imminent.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Road to Recession: A New Phase
The U.S. consumer is shouldering all the burden in preventing the slowing from turning into something worse.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Boeing's Impact on U.S. Growth
Issues with the 737 MAX are likely shaving tenths of a percentage point off GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Economic Roundup: Is the Trade Tide Turning?
Net exports have a shot at adding to Q4 U.S. GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

No New Cycle Lows for Credit Spreads Despite Record Highs for U.S. Equity Market
The slowdown with the profits recession of 2015-2016 was more severe than the latest deceleration.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Fed Likely Done, for Now
We are leaning toward removing the December rate cut and putting it in mid-2020.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Fed Likely Down, for Now
We are leaning toward removing the December rate cut and putting it in mid-2020.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: No Tricks, Just Treats
Third-quarter output and October employment surprised to the upside.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

September Trade Deficit Sets Up Better for Q4 U.S. GDP
Fourth quarter growth is now tracking 1.2%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Student Loans and the Housing Market
While U.S. homeownership has fallen and student debt has risen, the causal link is ambiguous.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Stress-Testing States 2019
The overall results of the latest exercise relative to a year ago are unmistakably positive.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Solid U.S. Labor Market Implies Recent High-Yield Spread Is Not Too Thin
Three models generated a midpoint of 413 basis points for the high-yield bond spread.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Economic Roundup: Don't Sleep on the SLOOS
Banks are tightening lending standards on C&I, but not enough to raise a red flag, yet.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Welcome to Economic View: Real Time
Economy.com has a new look, new features, and a new name.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Canada Risk Matrix: Trouble in Every Direction
The U.S.-China trade war remains at the forefront.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

2020 Election Tracker Update: Early Signs Point to Trump
Nonetheless, our forecast is fraught with a handful of wild cards.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Economic Roundup: Sometimes It's Good to Be Wrong
U.S. job growth was noticeably better than we expected in October.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Q4 U.S. GDP: One Is the Loneliest Number
We have begun tracking fourth-quarter growth, and it is not looking good.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Average U.S. Annual Increase for Those Over 80 Will Outpace Working-Age Cohort
Over the next 10 years, 20- to 64-year-olds are expected to increase by only 360K.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: No Rest From Uncertainty
The U.K. is navigating snap elections amid Brexit anxieties.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Canada Weekly: Trouble or Turnaround?
The recent increase in business borrowing sends mixed signals for investment.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 31, 2019

Sluggish Growth Assures Very Low Benchmark Interest Rates
By no means has the Fed unequivocally indicated that 1.625% is the absolute bottom for fed funds' midpoint.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 31, 2019

Economic Roundup: Don't Let Friday's Employment Report Spook You
It could look bad on the surface, but it is more noise than signal.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 31, 2019

California's Wildfires Becoming More Frequent and More Costly
Our preliminary estimate is that the Kincade fire will cost at least $580 million to $800 million.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 31, 2019

Final Thoughts Ahead of U.S. Employment
Watch out; there will be more noise than signal in this report.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 31, 2019

Analysis: The Trump Administration's Perplexing Plans for Fannie and Freddie
The prospect that Treasury does succeed in privatizing the GSEs is most concerning.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 30, 2019

Stocks Set New High Following Powell's Press Conference
The market value of U.S. common equity increased by 0.27% to an all-time high.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 30, 2019

Economic Roundup: For It's One, Two, Three Cuts and the Fed's Out
Fed gearing up to take a seat on the bench and see if three cuts were enough.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 30, 2019

Q3 GDP Confirms What We Already Knew
U.S. consumers keep spending, and business investment's poor run continues with no sign of a recession.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

Third-Quarter NAI Says High-Yield Spread Is Too Narrow by More Than 125 Bps
The recent below-average high-yield bond spread shows that the market has priced in return of above-trend business activity.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumers Less Cheery but Still Buying Homes
Consumer confidence fell in October, but pending home sales posted a solid gain in September.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

Final Thoughts Ahead of Q3 U.S. GDP
We look for third-quarter growth of 1.6% annualized.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

U.S. Credit Outlook: Unsecured Lending Leads
Households continue to take on credit despite rising economic uncertainty.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Much Ado About Housing
Home sales slipped in September, but the broader trend remains positive.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

Stress-Testing States
Economic conditions for U.S. state and local governments are as good as they will get this business cycle.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

Major Fallen-Angel Downgrade Boosts Third-Quarter Outstandings of High-Yield Bonds
A record high for the market value of common stock is not a trustworthy leading indicator of the business cycle.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 28, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Q3 GDP Could Be Soft
Inventories will be a noticeable drag.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 28, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 28, 2019
We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 28, 2019

U.S. Employment Outlook: Not Too Cool, Not Too Hot
The deceleration in job growth is likely to persist into next year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 25, 2019

Average EDF-Implied Rating of Baa3 Issuers Improves
The implied EDF ratings of the 86 Baa3 credits averaged nearly Baa2.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 25, 2019

Economic Roundup: Next Week Is a Doozy
The lineup features Brexit, U.S. GDP, employment, and the FOMC.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 25, 2019

FOMC Preview: Time to Start Managing Expectations
A cut, two hawkish dissents, and a hint that this easing cycle could be coming to an end.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 25, 2019

Canada Weekly: The Election and the Damage Done
Our overall outlook stays the same, but a few changes after the vote are noteworthy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 24, 2019

Global High-Yield Loan Default Rate Expected to Top Bond Default Rate
Moody's Investors Service forecasts a global default rate of 3.2% by September 2020.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 24, 2019

Economic Roundup: Super Mario's Quest Ends
The ECB's Lagarde will pick up where Draghi left off.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 23, 2019

Caa Bond Spreads Widen by 326 Basis Points From a Year Earlier
The latest data showed U.S. businesses had $1.207 trillion of outstanding high-yield bonds.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 23, 2019

Caa Bond Spreads Widens by 326 Basis Points from a Year Earlier
The latest data showed U.S. businesses had $1.207 trillion of outstanding high-yield bonds.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 23, 2019

Economic Roundup: Upcoming Final Piece of GDP Puzzle
We look for durable goods orders to have fallen in September because of transportation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 23, 2019

U.S. Regional Outlook: Holding Steady for Now
A slowing national economy will have broad regional ramifications.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 22, 2019

Housing and Transports Defy Tuesday's Equity Market Slide
If a recession risk were on the rise, share prices of companies with exposure would be declining.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 22, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Existing-Home Sales Slip
Sales can be choppy but the trend in September has clearly improved thanks to lower mortgage rates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

How This Yield Curve Inversion Differs From 2008-2009 and 2001
With its presumed October rate cut, the Fed could make this the shortest inversion since 1998.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

Economic Roundup: Businesses Can't Shake the Blues
Brexit and the trade tensions are not helping.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: But Enough About Geopolitics
Temporary factors may have distorted data on industrial production, housing starts and retail sales.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 21, 2019
Expect the Fed to be quiet in the blackout period before its October FOMC meeting.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: A Big 'If'
Will policymakers figure out their mistakes and fix them in time to avoid recession?

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: No Pushback From Clarida
All signs point toward a Fed rate cut later this month, but then things get interesting.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 18, 2019

Solid Case for an October 30 Fed Rate Cut
A further upturn by home sales would strengthen the case for a continued upswing by U.S. consumer spending.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 18, 2019

Canada Weekly: Brexit Deal Could Be a Boon
The effects for commodity prices and trade flows would help offset a slowdown in global growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 17, 2019

Milder Business Activity Swings Boost Equity Valuations, Keep Rates Low
Since 1984, the NAI's moving three-month average has exceeded 0.70 in only 15 of 416 months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 17, 2019

Economic Roundup: Drama on the Thames
Brexit agreement sets up key weekend vote for U.K. Parliament.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Transportation Index Prices in a Reduced Risk of Recession
Over the last six trading days, the index advanced 6.1% to outrun the market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Retail Sales Come Up Short, but Don't Worry
A number of possible temporary factors hurt spending in September.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Strong U.S. Economy Helps Balance Spending
High-income households dominate, but the strong labor market supports lower-income spending.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Retail Sales and Business Inventories Cut Into Q3 GDP
Growth in the latest quarter is now on track to rise 1.5% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

U.S. Retail Sales Disappointing, Not Disastrous
A number of transitory factors may have weighed on results.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

High-Yield Loan and Bond Default Rates Have Yet to Alarm
High-yield spreads are more likely to widen than narrow.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

Economic Roundup: Early Look at 2020 Election
All signs point toward Trump winning re-election.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

Analysis: Vice President Biden's Student Loan Plan
It would ease the financial pressure on borrowers and support stronger economic growth.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

Our 2020 Presidential Election Models
Early signs point to Trump, though turnout is key.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

U.S. Energy Spending Up for 2018
A sharp collapse of oil prices at the end of the year has kept 2019 spending lower.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

Predicted High-Yield Spread Tops Actual Spread for 12 Straight Months
One model estimates a midpoint of 489 basis points for the composite high-yield bond spread.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

Economic Roundup: Why Wait?
New York Fed releases manufacturing survey a day early and the data were mixed.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 14, 2019
Data this week, including industrial production, could be impacted by the UAW strike that began in September.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: A Green Light for the FOMC
The most recent data give the Fed cover for another rate cut this month.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: Phase One Done
The U.S. and China have agreed to address some of their short-term rifts.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Leveraged Loans Have Priced In More Risk Than High-Yield Bonds
The VIX dropped to its lowest level since September 23.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Lights Out in California
PG&E cut power to much of California this week in an attempt to prevent wildfires.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Canada Weekly: Rethinking Vancouver's Foreign Buyers
With a novel approach, we separate the effect of foreign demand from overall nonresident demand.

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