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Mar 27, 2023

Money on the Move
U.S. money market funds have gotten a big boost from rising interest rates and banking system turmoil. Analysis
Mar 24, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Manufacturing on Shaky Ground
New orders for durable goods fell 1% in February, the second straight monthly decline. Analysis
Mar 24, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 24, 2023
A key inflation indicator will not be to the Fed's liking. Analysis
Mar 24, 2023

Canada Weekly: The Wisdom in a Pause
The Bank of Canada appears justified in its decision to pause its monetary policy tightening cycle. Analysis
Mar 24, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: French Protests Threaten Economy
The ongoing protests against pension reform will likely hinder industrial production. Analysis
Mar 23, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Market Still Rock Solid
Jobless claims show no signs of deterioration despite heightened economic uncertainty. Analysis
Mar 23, 2023

U.S. Initial Claims Defy Surging Job Cut Announcements
Unemployed individuals are finding jobs at a higher rate than in the past two expansions. Analysis
Mar 22, 2023

Economic Roundup: The Fed Presses On
Amid uncertainty in the banking system, the Federal Reserve announced another 25-bps rate hike. Analysis
Mar 22, 2023

U.S. State Fiscal Policy Contributes to Delays in Tax Filing
Americans are filing returns later than usual, and state payments may explain some of the delay. Analysis
Mar 22, 2023

U.S. Consumers Are of Two Minds
Fundamentals are mixed, and consumers are not sure whether to be happy or sad. Analysis
Mar 21, 2023

Economic Roundup: Pausing to Think?
Financial stability will take precedent over price stability at March's FOMC meeting. Analysis
Mar 21, 2023

What If U.S. Small Banks Pull Back on Lending?
The CRE industry stands to lose most from a prolonged crisis of confidence in small banks. Analysis
Mar 21, 2023

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 103—Systemic Threats, Supervisory Shortfalls
Why are there many thousand fewer banks in the U.S. than a generation ago? Analysis
Mar 20, 2023

Economic Roundup: Countdown to Fed Decision Day
A pullback in lending by small banks would hit the CRE industry hard. Analysis
Mar 20, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Pressing Pause
Recent banking failures will complicate the path forward for the Fed. Analysis
Mar 17, 2023

Inferring Banking System Stress from Market Signals
The AMERIBOR® index provided a much earlier and stronger signal of the regional banking crisis. Analysis
Mar 17, 2023

Economic Roundup: Long Winter for U.S. Producers
Industrial production was unchanged in February, weighing on our estimate for first-quarter GDP. Analysis
Mar 17, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 17, 2023
All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee next week. Analysis
Mar 17, 2023

Credit Market View: Regulatory Pendulum Will Swing Back for U.S. Banks
Liquidity risk will further be addressed by the eventual complete adoption of Basel III standards. Analysis
Mar 17, 2023

Canada Weekly: The Eastern Trade Balance
Decreased Chinese imports have affected employment in Vancouver's logistics industry. Analysis
Mar 17, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Bank Failures Shake Financial System
The actions by the Federal Reserve, Treasury and FDIC have eased worries. Analysis
Mar 17, 2023

Bank Check
Despite the unfolding drama, the banking system will hold firm given its strong fundamentals and the U.S. government's explicit backstop. Analysis
Mar 17, 2023

U.S. Consumer Inflation Expectations Falling—For Now
It is less clear if declines will continue. Analysis
Mar 17, 2023

March (Banking) Madness
The private sector's rescue of First Republic Bank on Thursday will calm nerves. Analysis
Mar 16, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Housing Gets Temporary Bump
Housing starts jumped in February, but it is unlikely to be a turning point. Analysis
Mar 16, 2023

Drag From U.S. Residential Investment Set to Ease
Warm weather has pushed starts above permits in the single-family segment. Analysis
Mar 16, 2023

U.S. Manufacturing Finally Succumbs to Headwinds
Factory payrolls rolled over in February and the industry is poised for further losses. Analysis
Mar 16, 2023

U.S. Road to Recession: Where We Are Headed
The collapses of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank have altered our near-term outlook, though the effect should not be overstated. Analysis
Mar 15, 2023

Economic Roundup: How the U.S. Baseline Forecast Changed Between February and March
There were modest changes to the forecast in reaction to the recent bank failures. Analysis
Mar 15, 2023

U.S. High-Frequency GDP Estimate Inches Up
Our quarterly growth tracker for the first quarter rose from 1.6% to 1.9%. Analysis
Mar 15, 2023

U.S. Tax Refunds Didn't Juice February Retail
Rising control sales did lift our tracking estimate of first-quarter GDP. Analysis
Mar 15, 2023

Explaining a Tight U.S. Labor Market: Part IV
As childcare costs rise, more parents are stepping back from work to stay home. Analysis
Mar 15, 2023

The Fed's New Climate Stress Test and U.S. Regional Economies
While in more cases than not taking steps to mitigate climate risk causes pain as firms struggle to adjust, this is hardly a uniform outcome. Analysis
Mar 15, 2023

Looking for Signs of Weakness in the U.S. Labor Market
The breadth of job creation has narrowed considerably in recent months. Analysis
Mar 14, 2023

Economic Roundup: A Lot Can Change in a Week
February's CPI came in hot, but uncertainty in the financial system will cause the Fed to pause. Analysis
Mar 14, 2023

February CPI Complicates Fed's Balancing Act
We expect a March pause in central-bank rate hikes, but the latest data show the fight against U.S. inflation is not over. Analysis
Mar 13, 2023

Economic Roundup: Is There Another Shoe to Drop?
While highly uncertain, the impact of the bank failures on the economic outlook should be on the margin. Analysis
Mar 13, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Labor Market Still Tight
Indicators are little improved and will do little to alter the Fed's thinking. Analysis
Mar 13, 2023

Financial System Shaken, Not Rattled
The bank crisis is unlikely to push the U.S. economy into recession. Analysis
Mar 13, 2023

U.S. Risk Matrix: New Concerns
The possibility of a commercial real estate price crash has made its debut. Analysis
Mar 10, 2023

Canada Weekly: Tourism Activity Returns to Form
The final Canadian Tourism Activity Tracker has been released, highlighting tourism's recovery. Analysis
Mar 10, 2023

Credit Market View: Check on Bond Spreads
Despite the inverted Treasury yield curve, corporate credit markets have yet to flash warning signals of an impending recession. Analysis
Mar 10, 2023

Credit Market View: Check on Bond Spreads
Despite the inverted Treasury yield curve, corporate credit markets have yet to flash warning signals of an impending recession. Analysis
Mar 10, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 10, 2023
Next week's batch of economic indicators will shed further light on the state of inflation, consumer spending, residential construction and manufacturing output. Analysis
Mar 10, 2023

Economic Roundup: Mixed Messages
Despite some encouraging details, February's U.S. jobs report was stronger than the Fed wanted. Analysis
Mar 10, 2023

U.S. Jobs Report Cont'd: Growth Exceeds Expectations
February's labor market numbers do show some evidence of loosening. Analysis
Mar 10, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: EC Adopts Green Regulations
The new regulations will make it easier for EU members to spend on renewable energy. Analysis
Mar 10, 2023

Dude, Where's My Refund?
U.S. federal tax refunds are coming in lighter than before the pandemic, but it is not fully apparent why. Analysis
Mar 09, 2023

Economic Roundup: All Eyes on U.S. Labor Market
We look for the economy to have added 275,000 jobs, on net, in February. Analysis
Mar 09, 2023

U.S. High-Frequency GDP Estimate Declines
The latest data on inventories, trade and factory orders lowered our Q1 estimate from 2.6% to 1.9%. Analysis
Mar 09, 2023

Final Thoughts Ahead of the U.S. Employment Report
We look for the economy to have added 275,000 jobs, on net, in February. Analysis
Mar 09, 2023

Watching the U.S. Quits Rate
The latest JOLTS report shows signs of incremental loosening in the labor market. Analysis
Mar 08, 2023

Economic Roundup: Still Open for Business
U.S. job openings fall but remain high; workers quitting at the lowest rate in nearly two years. Analysis
Mar 08, 2023

U.S. Homebuilders Are Cautiously Optimistic
The single-family market may be approaching a turning point. Analysis
Mar 07, 2023

Economic Roundup: Debt Limit Clouds on the Horizon
If brinkmanship around the debt limit hurtles to the edge, the economic pain will be meaningful. Analysis
Mar 07, 2023

Amazon and the Risks of Betting Big on Tech
Northern Virginia's big HQ2 win still matters but not as much as it had seemed. Analysis
Mar 07, 2023

Going Down the Debt Limit Rabbit Hole
Lawmakers must increase or suspend the debt limit before the Treasury fails to make a payment later this summer. Analysis
Mar 07, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Slowing Sectors Highlight Economic Risks
Consumer confidence remains nowhere near the level associated with previous recessions. Analysis
Mar 06, 2023

Economic Roundup: Better Than It Looks
U.S. factory orders fell in January, though underlying details were positive. Analysis
Mar 06, 2023

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 101—Shaky Credit, Shifting Consumers
What's behind the dramatic increase in household debt? Analysis
Mar 03, 2023

Economic Roundup: All Eyes on Labor Next Week
The latest U.S. employment report and job openings data will be released. Analysis
Mar 03, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 3, 2023
The unemployment rate likely ticked up from 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969, to 3.5% in February. Analysis
Mar 03, 2023

Canada Outlook: High Hurdles
The obstacles confronting growth outnumber its supports. Analysis
Mar 03, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Russia Pulls Out of New Start
Putin said the country would no longer participate in the nuclear arms treaty with the U.S. Analysis
Mar 03, 2023

Credit Market View: Teasing Out the Recessionary Signals
The debt-ceiling face-off looms as a significant risk to markets should Congress fail to work out a deal. Analysis
Mar 03, 2023

Consumer Credit Moves Toward Pre-Pandemic Pattern
U.S. balances and credit quality remain high in total but not uniformly. Analysis
Mar 02, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Vehicle Sales Stall
Despite February's decline, we expect improvement in vehicle sales in 2023. Analysis
Mar 01, 2023

Economic Roundup: A Mixed Manufacturing Bag
U.S. manufacturing activity declined in February, but the contraction was not as bad as before. Analysis
Mar 01, 2023

U.S. Inflation Tracker: Inflation's Certainties and Uncertainties
January's PCE deflator report indicates a rough disinflation process is underway. Analysis
Mar 01, 2023

U.S. Housing Flips Have Fallen Significantly
Declining prices and limited inventory have put a strain on flippers. Analysis
Mar 01, 2023

Housing Flips Have Fallen Significantly
Declining prices and limited inventory have put a strain on house flippers. Analysis
Feb 28, 2023

Economic Roundup: Consumers Don't Believe Good Times Will Last
Consumers acknowledge the labor market is tight today but expect looser conditions in six months. Analysis
Feb 28, 2023

U.S. Consumer Confidence and Job Market Conditions Diverge
Expectations have soured, despite consumers' acknowledgement of a strong job market. Analysis
Feb 28, 2023

Canada Risk Matrix: Feeling Vulnerable
The end of rate hikes only marks the beginning of a perilous stretch for the economy. Analysis
Feb 27, 2023

Close the Gender Gap to Unlock Productivity Gains
Limited and divergent progress has been made elevating females in the workplace. Analysis
Feb 27, 2023

Economic Roundup: Business Sentiment on Edge
Surveys show firms have a negative view of the economy. Anything off-script could cause a recession. Analysis
Feb 27, 2023

U.S. B2B Tracker: The Consumer Firewall
Business-to-business spending saw the first sign of growth in five months. Analysis
Feb 27, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Inflation Certainties and Uncertainties
Inflation in core services excluding housing is the biggest wild card for the Fed. Analysis
Feb 24, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, February 24, 2023
Insights on the state of consumers will come next week. Analysis
Feb 24, 2023

Economic Roundup: Surprises All Around
U.S. personal spending, the core PCE deflator, and new-home sales all surprised to the upside. Analysis
Feb 24, 2023

Canada Weekly: Starts and HPI
Estimating the role housing starts play on house-price inflation. Analysis
Feb 24, 2023

U.S. High-Frequency GDP Update
Booming January data have pushed up our high-frequency estimate. Some payback is likely incoming. Analysis
Feb 24, 2023

U.S. Consumers Have More Income and Saving
Revised data suggest a slower drawdown of excess saving. Analysis
Feb 24, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Russia-Ukraine Tensions Remain
On the anniversary of the invasion, not much has been resolved. Analysis
Feb 23, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Holding Up Under Pressure
Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth was revised slightly lower, but remains above trend. Analysis
Feb 23, 2023

U.S. Personal Income Will Be Boomlike in January
A strong labor market will drive personal income notably higher. Analysis
Feb 23, 2023

The Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Subnational Economies
Moody's Analytics now offers climate risk at the regional level. Analysis
Feb 22, 2023

Economic Roundup: Reading Between the Lines
The minutes from the FOMC's February meeting show the difficult position the central bank is in. Analysis
Feb 22, 2023

Global Energy Outlook: Russia Recedes, China Reopens
Oil prices are expected to move sideways, averaging $90 per barrel in 2023 and $87 by the end of the year. Analysis
Feb 21, 2023

Economic Roundup: Quiet Start to Shortened Week
The start of the week was relatively calm, but things are set to pick up. Analysis
Feb 21, 2023

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 99—Inflation Head Fakes and Heartbreaks
Latest data say price deceleration may take longer than we had hoped. Analysis
Feb 21, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Unpacking a Busy Week
A swath of new data offer a clearer glimpse into the state of the economy at the start of 2023. Analysis
Feb 21, 2023

Keeping Faith
It will be a difficult year for the U.S. economy, but as long as consumers, businesses and lenders do not lose faith, there are better than even odds of skirting a full-blown downturn. Analysis
Feb 21, 2023

Explaining a Tight U.S. Labor Market: Part III
Elevated rates of drug abuse are correlated with lower labor force participation. Analysis
Feb 21, 2023

Strong Construction Employment Continues
U.S. homebuilding activity should remain robust throughout 2023 given the large number of homes not finished due to supply-chain bottlenecks. Analysis
Feb 17, 2023

Holiday Note
Our U.S. offices will be closed Monday, February 20, in observance of Presidents Day. Analysis
Feb 17, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, February 17, 2023
We look for the personal consumption expenditure deflators to have risen, confirming that the disinflationary process will be bumpy. Analysis
Feb 17, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Recession Risks Still Elevated
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index declined for the 11th straight month in January. Analysis
Feb 17, 2023

Credit Market View: The Decline in Corporate Issuance
Recent developments in debt markets have been more promising. Analysis
Feb 17, 2023

Canada Weekly: Consumer Debt on the Rise
Canadians have been taking on more debt—but with a recession looming, insolvency concerns are growing.

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