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Apr 25, 2019
The U.S. high-yield default rate is likely to fall from its 2.4% average of 2019's first quarter to 2.2% for 2019's final quarter.
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Apr 25, 2019
We look for 2.7% annualized output growth in the first quarter.
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Apr 25, 2019
We look for a solid 2.7% gain in GDP.
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Apr 24, 2019
Futures market gives odds of 61% that the Fed will cut its rate by the end of the year.
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Apr 24, 2019
Bank of Canada is on hold for the foreseeable future.
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Apr 24, 2019
Fundamentals support further—but less impressive—stock market gains.
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Apr 23, 2019
Although markets have largely ignored the jump by the downgrade per upgrade ratio of U.S. high-yield credit rating revisions.
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Apr 23, 2019
Also, don't look now, but the effective fed funds rate is drifting higher.
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Apr 23, 2019
New data confirm growth in inequality, but show it has not been linear.
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Apr 23, 2019
OPEC's estimated output for March implies a nearly balanced oil market.
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Apr 22, 2019
Investment intentions have fallen to levels last seen in the early part of the expansion.
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Apr 22, 2019
Existing-home sales fell in March but rose 5% at an annualized rate in Q1.
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Apr 22, 2019
The Trump administration will no longer exempt certain countries from sanctions.
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Apr 22, 2019
Despite the March drop, existing-home sales were up 5% at an annualized rate in Q1.
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Apr 22, 2019
The economy got a recent lift from the central bank, but the criticism will go on.
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Apr 22, 2019
The latest tracking estimates of output growth signal that the economy is growing around its potential.
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Apr 19, 2019
We anticipate that past declines in mortgage rates will push home sales, primarily of new homes, higher.
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Apr 19, 2019
Lower mortgage rates will eventually boost residential investment.
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Apr 19, 2019
China launches an attack on Canada's canola industry.
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Apr 18, 2019
String of better data has U.S. Q1 GDP tracking 2.8%.
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Apr 18, 2019
The labor market will face more binding supply constraints as the unemployment rate continues to fall.
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Apr 18, 2019
First-quarter U.S. GDP is on track to post a solid gain, but it could have been better.
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Apr 18, 2019
The key, control retail sales, rose 1% in March.
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Apr 17, 2019
The nominal trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in March.
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Apr 17, 2019
First-quarter GDP is now on track to rise 2.2% at an annualized rate.
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Apr 17, 2019
A downturn in financial markets would sting the Northeast, while trade tensions remain an impediment for the Pacific Northwest and Farm Belt.
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Apr 16, 2019
Production fell 0.1% in March, bucking expectations for a small gain.
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Apr 16, 2019
Its output dropped 1.1% at an annualized rate in the first quarter.
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Apr 15, 2019
Global business sentiment is stable but soft.
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Apr 12, 2019
The U.S. equity market is closing in on its September 20, 2018 zenith.
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Apr 12, 2019
We look for improvement in housing-related data as past declines in mortgage rates begin to pay dividends.
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Apr 12, 2019
Higher energy prices will be transitory on inflation; the Fed can sit tight.
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Apr 12, 2019
Prices are expected to rise modestly in coming months but remain below $3.25 per million BTU for the duration of the year.
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Apr 12, 2019
The output cuts hurt now but will help oil producers later this year.
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Apr 11, 2019
Though higher Treasury yields were to blame for the accompanying 0.1% daily drop by an investment-grade corporate bond ETF.
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Apr 11, 2019
With a drop below 200,000, the four-week moving average decreased from 214,000 to 207,000.
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Apr 11, 2019
Robust U.S. production lowers the trajectory for prices.
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Apr 10, 2019
Inflation is increasingly important in assessing where the Fed is headed.
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Apr 10, 2019
The outstandings of U.S. high-yield corporate bonds have now declined from their year-earlier mark for nine consecutive quarters.
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Apr 10, 2019
Some of the weights on inflation will lift, but the Fed shouldn't and won't respond until 2020.
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Apr 09, 2019
We have changed our Fed call and now look for no hikes this year.
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Apr 09, 2019
Four of the six downgrades were a result of the California wildfires.
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Apr 09, 2019
We now look for no rate hikes this year and one in 2020.
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Apr 09, 2019
The Treasury will not exhaust its borrowing capacity until October 3.
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Apr 08, 2019
Brexit's big week and why it will continue to hurt sentiment.
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Apr 08, 2019
However, the consensus looks for an acceleration of revenues per share to a 4.9% pace in 2019's final quarter.
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Apr 08, 2019
A run of solid data tempered concerns about a downturn.
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Apr 05, 2019
The week is all about inflation.
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Apr 05, 2019
The hourly wage's yearly increase eased from 3.4% to 3.2%.
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Apr 05, 2019
U.S. job growth bounced back in March and though the trend has slowed, it remains solid.
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Apr 05, 2019
Weakened prospects have forced central banks around the world to press the pause button.
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Apr 05, 2019
March U.S. employment should ease recession concerns while keeping the Fed on the sidelines.
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Apr 05, 2019
The distribution of average firm size is morphing due to structural and cyclical changes.
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Apr 04, 2019
Job market remains strong and we look for a 180,000 gain in nonfarm employment for March.
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Apr 04, 2019
Net interest expense's annual rise was surprisingly meager given the climb by three-month Libor's yearlong average.
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Apr 04, 2019
It may be telling us something different than in the past.
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Apr 03, 2019
Lower benchmark interest rates will improve the outlooks for both corporate credit quality and the near record-long business cycle upturn.
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Apr 03, 2019
Supply constraints and rising costs are tapping the brakes on private sector employment.
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Apr 02, 2019
Q1 GDP is on track to rise 2%, not too shabby given the temporary drags.
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Apr 02, 2019
Temporary factors have hurt the economy in the short term.
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Apr 02, 2019
Supply chains and cross-border transactions could be damaged.
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Apr 02, 2019
Last year, the yearlong average 10-year Treasury yield of 2.91% trailed 5.2% nominal GDP growth by 2.3 percentage points.
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Apr 02, 2019
The composition of U.S. growth implies more in the first quarter, a little less in the second.
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Apr 01, 2019
A weeklong inversion falls considerably short of being the harbinger of a forthcoming slump.
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Apr 01, 2019
Consumers are not helping but inventories and construction spending are nudging Q1 GDP higher.
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Apr 01, 2019
Some indicators disappointed due to fleeting factors, but the labor market is sanguine.
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Apr 01, 2019
U.S. retail sales disappointed, but construction spending jumped.
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Mar 29, 2019
A consumer sentiment survey for March revealed a much improved assessment of household incomes.
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Mar 29, 2019
U.K.'s MPs reject May's Brexit deal, but now circle your calendar for April 12.
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Mar 29, 2019
A run of solid data would temper concerns about a downturn.
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Mar 29, 2019
January earnings figures show declining wages for higher-paying industries as the economy slows.
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Mar 29, 2019
Recession signal likely overdone unless we talk ourselves into a downturn.
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Mar 28, 2019
The annual percent changes of world economic growth and Moody's industrial metals price index have generated a relatively high correlation.
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Mar 28, 2019
The trend looks more solid and has distanced itself from our estimate of the break-even level.
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Mar 28, 2019
The biggest surprise was net exports, now shown to be less of a drag.
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Mar 27, 2019
CME Group's FedWatch sees a lower rate by the fall or December.
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Mar 27, 2019
Fed cut rates in the 1990s when the expansion hit some bumps.
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Mar 27, 2019
Boeing's issues could eventually show up in the trade data.
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Mar 26, 2019
The perception of business activity is what drives both Treasury bond yields and stock prices.
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Mar 26, 2019
There are other factors that have contributed to the sudden slowing in the economy.
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Mar 25, 2019
By lowering fed funds' midpoint to 2.125%, the Fed can lower the perceived risk of a recession.
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Mar 25, 2019
The economy wobbled into 2019 but a turnaround appears to be under way.
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Mar 25, 2019
Fourth quarter GDP will likely be revised lower, to 2.1%.
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Mar 25, 2019
If all immigration stopped, labor force growth would be cut by more than half in coming decades.
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Mar 22, 2019
Perhaps a slight and momentary inversion of the Treasury yield curve will not be the precursor to a recession, especially if the FOMC is quick to cut rates.
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Mar 22, 2019
Some of what ails the economy could be fixed quickly if the trade war were to end.
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Mar 22, 2019
Recent political events in the U.S. and Canada lower the likelihood of the USMCA's passage.
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Mar 22, 2019
Inventories are on track to add to first quarter GDP growth.
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Mar 22, 2019
The category added almost 250,000 jobs in 2018, the most in three decades.
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Mar 21, 2019
To make America great again, you needed to make America young again. And that is next to impossible.
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Mar 21, 2019
Even if there is a delay, odds are the BoE hikes rates sometime this year.
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Mar 21, 2019
The runoff ends this year, but the composition will continue to shift.
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Mar 21, 2019
Debate will heat up this year, but it may already be influencing some policymakers views.
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Mar 20, 2019
Also, the Fed's less-restrictive tone was not enough to prevent a post-FOMC sell-off of equities.
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Mar 20, 2019
'Cause a no rate hike-party don't stop.
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Mar 20, 2019
The economic expansion should begin to move forward again.
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Mar 20, 2019
The ongoing pressure has hammered sales growth.
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Mar 19, 2019
As advanced economies' share of world GDP dropped over the previous five years, U.S. core PCE inflation slowed to 1.6%.
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