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Oct 18, 2021
As the Delta wave of the pandemic winds down, the recovery and job market will rev back up.
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Oct 15, 2021
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in September, but not enough to keep Q3 tracking from sliding.
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Oct 15, 2021
There was a productive call between the EU and China on Friday.
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Oct 15, 2021
Self-employed small-business owners are being left out of the recovery.
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Oct 15, 2021
The pandemic and ESG could support M&A activity over the next couple of years.
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Oct 15, 2021
The COVID-19 variant weighed more on the economy in the third quarter than previously anticipated.
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Oct 14, 2021
Claims are now at their lowest since March 2020, thanks to the seasonal adjustment process.
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Oct 14, 2021
Spreads have widened but remain tight from a historical perspective.
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Oct 14, 2021
Vaccination rates are still crucial, but U.S. COVID-19 cases are shifting north.
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Oct 14, 2021
The consumer price index came in slightly stronger than expected in September.
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Oct 14, 2021
It's okay to be nervous, but a wage-price spiral isn't setting in.
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Oct 13, 2021
U.S. CPI was up 0.4% in September but it wasn't the reopening of the economy or vehicles this time.
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Oct 13, 2021
Markets are pricing in an earlier liftoff as September CPI comes in hotter than anticipated.
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Oct 13, 2021
Index components not directly related to the economy's reopening pushed consumer prices higher in September.
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Oct 13, 2021
The impact on U.S. inflation is transitory, but the central bank can go to that well only so many times.
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Oct 12, 2021
We revised the forecast lower for growth this year, but made little changes to 2022.
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Oct 12, 2021
Harmonization of border protocols and increased vaccination of essential travel workers are a must if the logistics and transportation industry is to forge ahead.
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Oct 12, 2021
We look for the CPI to have risen 0.3% in September, but it could come in hotter the next month.
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Oct 11, 2021
Case counts are declining and that should boost job growth in October.
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Oct 11, 2021
Economic data are set to improve and that could push rates higher, but tapering won't.
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Oct 11, 2021
Some of the weakness in September's employment report is misleading; expect improvement for October.
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Oct 11, 2021
The Delta variant left its fingerprints on the economic data released last week.
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Oct 11, 2021
The September U.S. jobs report was disappointing, but October will be stronger.
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Oct 11, 2021
Deteriorating conditions will cut into GDP growth and raise prices.
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Oct 08, 2021
Delta variant keeps people from re-entering the labor force, but they will come back.
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Oct 08, 2021
Leaders have been disappointed about continued military violence in the country.
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Oct 08, 2021
Soft hiring at schools weighed heavily on the September jobs number.
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Oct 08, 2021
Delta variant continued to weigh on the job market in September, but better times are ahead.
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Oct 08, 2021
Job growth should be stronger in October as a number of high-frequency data we track have improved.
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Oct 08, 2021
The small tax has a minimal effect on both the economy and emissions.
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Oct 08, 2021
Recent developments are a reminder that Washington DC is extremely unpredictable.
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Oct 07, 2021
Lawmakers play their cherished childhood game, kick the can.
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Oct 07, 2021
Congress kicks the can slightly down the road with a raised debt limit until December.
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Oct 07, 2021
We look for a 475,000 net gain in September and a dip in the unemployment rate.
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Oct 07, 2021
The Northeast held on to many high-wage jobs, but energy states' pain runs deep.
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Oct 07, 2021
Fast price growth is widespread across retail and has yet to moderate.
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Oct 06, 2021
ADP National Employment Report bests expectations, adding 568,000 jobs in September.
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Oct 06, 2021
It adds up to real money that could substantially improve the long-term financial success of all Americans.
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Oct 06, 2021
Consumer prices may remain volatile in the first half of 2022.
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Oct 05, 2021
Our tracking estimate of third-quarter U.S. GDP growth continues to drop.
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Oct 05, 2021
In Asia, the current wave of coronavirus is ebbing, but a rapid response to ease restrictions could set up the region for another virus variant.
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Oct 05, 2021
Congress averted a government shutdown, but action on the debt-limit and the fate of Build Back Better agenda are in flux.
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Oct 05, 2021
If the debt ceiling is breached, the implications for corporate bond spreads are very dark.
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Oct 05, 2021
Seasonal adjustment factors could be hard on U.S. consumer spending data.
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Oct 04, 2021
Supply-chain issues are not showing signs of easing.
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Oct 04, 2021
The Fed's taper and higher oil prices are pulling the term premium higher.
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Oct 04, 2021
Our new Supply-Chain Stress Index will help assess if conditions are improving or not.
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Oct 01, 2021
A look into the latest tourism spending data sheds light on the industry's recovery.
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Oct 01, 2021
Real spending rose in August, but our tracking estimate of Q3 GDP drops again.
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Oct 01, 2021
Global supply-chain issues will remain problematic, particularly for autos.
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Oct 01, 2021
Our tracking estimate of Q3 GDP keeps falling, but that won't prevent rates from rising.
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Oct 01, 2021
Kishida will be the new prime minister, beating out the popular Kono.
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Sep 30, 2021
The Q2 GDP estimate was revised up, but growth slowed in the second half of 2021.
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Sep 30, 2021
Investment-grade bonds would be hurt more if long-term rates spike.
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Sep 30, 2021
Weakness in real-time data was more pronounced in virus hot spots.
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Sep 30, 2021
The risk of shutdown has abated, but uncertainty still surrounds the debt limit and the Build Back Better agenda.
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Sep 29, 2021
Some improvement in the housing inventory helps pending-home sales increase 8.1% in August.
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Sep 28, 2021
There are no immediate implications for near-term consumer spending.
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Sep 28, 2021
Latin America still falls well short of the vaccination rate needed to protect from any new severe wave of COVID-19 infections.
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Sep 28, 2021
The sooner drop-dead date for U.S. debt ceiling isn't behind the rise in long-term rates.
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Sep 28, 2021
Inventories are going to account for the bulk of the gain in growth.
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Sep 27, 2021
Core durable-goods orders have moderated. On the policy front, new faces coming to the Fed.
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Sep 27, 2021
Homebuilders have been busy working through their backlogs but have seen some easing in supply issues.
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Sep 27, 2021
High-yield corporate bond issuance is a little disappointing in September.
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Sep 27, 2021
The deadline for Congress to renew expiring government spending authority is fast approaching.
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Sep 27, 2021
Latest data on U.S. state-level employment refutes the notion that extended jobless benefits held back job growth.
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Sep 24, 2021
New-home sales rose in August, but higher mortgage rates are coming.
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Sep 24, 2021
The concentration supports the view it will be temporary.
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Sep 24, 2021
Another round of Child Tax Credits went out last week.
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Sep 24, 2021
Scuttled submarine deal between Australia and France has hit EU-U.S. relations.
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Sep 24, 2021
Investment and structural shifts are fueling productivity and wage growth.
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Sep 23, 2021
Hurricane Ida and the pandemic could bite into September employment.
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Sep 23, 2021
Looking back at 2011 and 2013, and the impact on financial market conditions.
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Sep 23, 2021
Getting workers and merchandise will not be easy.
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Sep 23, 2021
COVID-19's rise, supply-chain bottlenecks, and elevated inflation confront a fragile recovery.
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Sep 23, 2021
It is time to start contemplating the economic costs.
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Sep 23, 2021
Industry growth rates were unusually predictive, and the unemployment insurance cutoff looks like a mistake.
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Sep 22, 2021
FOMC issues advance notice while Powell all but says tapering begins in November.
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Sep 22, 2021
Unless something goes wrong, tapering will begin in November.
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Sep 22, 2021
The simultaneous removal of fiscal support and lender accommodations has the potential to push default rates past the baseline forecast.
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Sep 21, 2021
U.S. housing starts were solid in August but the focus is on the Fed.
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Sep 21, 2021
A U.S. default would be a catastrophic blow to the nascent economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Sep 21, 2021
China's corporate debt is a risk, but it doesn't warrant a change to the forecast yet.
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Sep 21, 2021
The Moody's Analytics Broad Based Startup Rate investigates the potential driver of business creation.
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Sep 21, 2021
The pandemic is being contained in the developed world but still raging in much of the emerging world.
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Sep 20, 2021
The U.S. elderly and disabled population will grow quickly in coming decades, putting enormous strain on the fragile system that provides vital care.
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Sep 20, 2021
U.S. homebuilder sentiment rose, but global equity markets were spooked by a China developer.
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Sep 20, 2021
Typical lead times for chip production is over 26 weeks.
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Sep 20, 2021
The Fed's communication around tapering is unlikely to catch financial markets off guard.
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Sep 20, 2021
Delta muddies the picture, but price growth slowed in August.
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Sep 20, 2021
The Fed will likely borrow language from 2017 to signal that a tapering announcement is coming.
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Sep 20, 2021
Job gains will exceed 6 million this year and nearly 4 million more jobs will be added next year.
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Sep 17, 2021
Costs to the U.S. economy are mounting, but the weakness in confidence is the least concerning.
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Sep 17, 2021
A return to remote learning will delay the recovery in labor force participation.
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Sep 17, 2021
The forecast is still for equity prices to gradually decline.
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Sep 17, 2021
The short-term prognosis for resupplying the world with semiconductors is grim.
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Sep 17, 2021
The agreement between the U.S., the U.K. and Australia changes the security landscape.
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Sep 17, 2021
Buyer fatigue brings an end to Canada's pandemic-induced housing frenzy.
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Sep 17, 2021
Some central banks have loosened their policy, while others have had to tighten.
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Sep 17, 2021
Many U.S. consumers will wait to see EV sticker prices drop below those of gasoline-powered vehicles before making the switch.
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