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Nov 13, 2019

Low Inflation Expectations Imply Fed Can Be Quick With Rate Cut
The five-year TIPS contract now puts the expected annual rate of CPI inflation just under 1.6%. Analysis
Nov 13, 2019

Economic Roundup: Not Enough to Sway the Fed
Firming U.S. inflation will not divert the Federal Reserve from its current course. Analysis
Nov 13, 2019

Budget Deadlines on Collision Course With Impeachment Hearings
U.S. lawmakers must pass another short-term spending bill next week to prevent a shutdown. Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

Economic Roundup: Some Temporary U.S. Economy Drags Are Lifting
The resolution of the UAW strike should boost manufacturing in November and December. Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

U.S. High-Yield Downgrade per Upgrade Ratio May Ease for Third Straight Quarter
The high-yield default rate of U.S. issuers rose from October 2018's 3.16% to October's 3.56%. Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

Trade Troubles on the Farm
Recent data highlight the extent of the trade war's damage to the U.S. farm sector. Analysis
Nov 12, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: No Warning Bells
Minor disappointments indicate a slowing economy but are not a cause for alarm. Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

Loan Spreads Remain Well Above Bond Spreads for High-Yield Credits
The average high-yield loan spread was 58 bps wider than Barclays average high-yield bond spread. Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: Not Much to Like in U.K. Q3 GDP
The U.K. dodged a technical recession, but Brexit continues to hurt. Analysis
Nov 11, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 11, 2019
Key data coming up include retail sales, consumer and producer prices, industrial production, and business inventories. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Lowest Ratio of Riskiest Bonds to Outstanding High-Yield Bonds Since 1987
Third-quarter 2019's $1.256 trillion of outstanding high-yield U.S. corporate bonds included $319 billion of bonds from the riskiest credit ratings. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Economic Roundup: 10-Year Is Streaking
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has continued its tear. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Canada Weekly: Trading Down
Cooling of international trade may trigger a slowdown despite strong Q2 growth. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Is the Fed Killing the Signal From the Yield Curve?
Long-term rates have risen, helping steepen the yield curve, but there could be a cost. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Global Outlook: Sinking in Uncertainty
Growth has slowed in 2019, and will remain below potential in 2020. Analysis
Nov 08, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: 15 Asian Nations Agree to New Trade Pact
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership represents the world's largest trade deal. Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Spreads Narrow for 71% of Yearly Advances by Broad Equity Market
An easing of recession risk has driven benchmark bond yields higher. Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Economic Roundup: Figuring Out U.S. Unemployment's Message
We will watch initial claims, but they are not perfect. Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Economic Roundup: Figuring Out Unemployment's Message
We will watch initial claims, but they are not perfect. Analysis
Nov 07, 2019

Updated U.S. Risk Matrix: A Little Less Threatening
There have been some positive developments with regard to the U.S.-China trade tensions and Brexit. Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

U.S. Investment-Grade Corporate-Bond Issuance Has Been Led by Single-A
These bonds have advanced by 28.4% annually to $396 billion in 2019. Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Moving on From Late-Stage Expansion
We now put the economy at risk of a recession, but that does not mean it is imminent. Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Road to Recession: A New Phase
The U.S. consumer is shouldering all the burden in preventing the slowing from turning into something worse. Analysis
Nov 06, 2019

Boeing's Impact on U.S. Growth
Issues with the 737 MAX are likely shaving tenths of a percentage point off GDP. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Economic Roundup: Is the Trade Tide Turning?
Net exports have a shot at adding to Q4 U.S. GDP. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

No New Cycle Lows for Credit Spreads Despite Record Highs for U.S. Equity Market
The slowdown with the profits recession of 2015-2016 was more severe than the latest deceleration. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Fed Likely Done, for Now
We are leaning toward removing the December rate cut and putting it in mid-2020. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Fed Likely Down, for Now
We are leaning toward removing the December rate cut and putting it in mid-2020. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: No Tricks, Just Treats
Third-quarter output and October employment surprised to the upside. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

September Trade Deficit Sets Up Better for Q4 U.S. GDP
Fourth quarter growth is now tracking 1.2%. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Student Loans and the Housing Market
While U.S. homeownership has fallen and student debt has risen, the causal link is ambiguous. Analysis
Nov 05, 2019

Stress-Testing States 2019
The overall results of the latest exercise relative to a year ago are unmistakably positive. Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Solid U.S. Labor Market Implies Recent High-Yield Spread Is Not Too Thin
Three models generated a midpoint of 413 basis points for the high-yield bond spread. Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Economic Roundup: Don't Sleep on the SLOOS
Banks are tightening lending standards on C&I, but not enough to raise a red flag, yet. Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Welcome to Economic View: Real Time has a new look, new features, and a new name. Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

Canada Risk Matrix: Trouble in Every Direction
The U.S.-China trade war remains at the forefront. Analysis
Nov 04, 2019

2020 Election Tracker Update: Early Signs Point to Trump
Nonetheless, our forecast is fraught with a handful of wild cards. Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Economic Roundup: Sometimes It's Good to Be Wrong
U.S. job growth was noticeably better than we expected in October. Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Q4 U.S. GDP: One Is the Loneliest Number
We have begun tracking fourth-quarter growth, and it is not looking good. Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Average U.S. Annual Increase for Those Over 80 Will Outpace Working-Age Cohort
Over the next 10 years, 20- to 64-year-olds are expected to increase by only 360K. Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: No Rest From Uncertainty
The U.K. is navigating snap elections amid Brexit anxieties. Analysis
Nov 01, 2019

Canada Weekly: Trouble or Turnaround?
The recent increase in business borrowing sends mixed signals for investment. Analysis
Oct 31, 2019

Sluggish Growth Assures Very Low Benchmark Interest Rates
By no means has the Fed unequivocally indicated that 1.625% is the absolute bottom for fed funds' midpoint. Analysis
Oct 31, 2019

Economic Roundup: Don't Let Friday's Employment Report Spook You
It could look bad on the surface, but it is more noise than signal. Analysis
Oct 31, 2019

California's Wildfires Becoming More Frequent and More Costly
Our preliminary estimate is that the Kincade fire will cost at least $580 million to $800 million. Analysis
Oct 31, 2019

Final Thoughts Ahead of U.S. Employment
Watch out; there will be more noise than signal in this report. Analysis
Oct 31, 2019

Analysis: The Trump Administration's Perplexing Plans for Fannie and Freddie
The prospect that Treasury does succeed in privatizing the GSEs is most concerning. Analysis
Oct 30, 2019

Stocks Set New High Following Powell's Press Conference
The market value of U.S. common equity increased by 0.27% to an all-time high. Analysis
Oct 30, 2019

Economic Roundup: For It's One, Two, Three Cuts and the Fed's Out
Fed gearing up to take a seat on the bench and see if three cuts were enough. Analysis
Oct 30, 2019

Q3 GDP Confirms What We Already Knew
U.S. consumers keep spending, and business investment's poor run continues with no sign of a recession. Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

Third-Quarter NAI Says High-Yield Spread Is Too Narrow by More Than 125 Bps
The recent below-average high-yield bond spread shows that the market has priced in return of above-trend business activity. Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumers Less Cheery but Still Buying Homes
Consumer confidence fell in October, but pending home sales posted a solid gain in September. Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

Final Thoughts Ahead of Q3 U.S. GDP
We look for third-quarter growth of 1.6% annualized. Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

U.S. Credit Outlook: Unsecured Lending Leads
Households continue to take on credit despite rising economic uncertainty. Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Much Ado About Housing
Home sales slipped in September, but the broader trend remains positive. Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

Stress-Testing States
Economic conditions for U.S. state and local governments are as good as they will get this business cycle. Analysis
Oct 29, 2019

Major Fallen-Angel Downgrade Boosts Third-Quarter Outstandings of High-Yield Bonds
A record high for the market value of common stock is not a trustworthy leading indicator of the business cycle. Analysis
Oct 28, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Q3 GDP Could Be Soft
Inventories will be a noticeable drag. Analysis
Oct 28, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 28, 2019
We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points. Analysis
Oct 28, 2019

U.S. Employment Outlook: Not Too Cool, Not Too Hot
The deceleration in job growth is likely to persist into next year. Analysis
Oct 25, 2019

Average EDF-Implied Rating of Baa3 Issuers Improves
The implied EDF ratings of the 86 Baa3 credits averaged nearly Baa2. Analysis
Oct 25, 2019

Economic Roundup: Next Week Is a Doozy
The lineup features Brexit, U.S. GDP, employment, and the FOMC. Analysis
Oct 25, 2019

FOMC Preview: Time to Start Managing Expectations
A cut, two hawkish dissents, and a hint that this easing cycle could be coming to an end. Analysis
Oct 25, 2019

Canada Weekly: The Election and the Damage Done
Our overall outlook stays the same, but a few changes after the vote are noteworthy. Analysis
Oct 24, 2019

Global High-Yield Loan Default Rate Expected to Top Bond Default Rate
Moody's Investors Service forecasts a global default rate of 3.2% by September 2020. Analysis
Oct 24, 2019

Economic Roundup: Super Mario's Quest Ends
The ECB's Lagarde will pick up where Draghi left off. Analysis
Oct 23, 2019

Caa Bond Spreads Widen by 326 Basis Points From a Year Earlier
The latest data showed U.S. businesses had $1.207 trillion of outstanding high-yield bonds. Analysis
Oct 23, 2019

Caa Bond Spreads Widens by 326 Basis Points from a Year Earlier
The latest data showed U.S. businesses had $1.207 trillion of outstanding high-yield bonds. Analysis
Oct 23, 2019

Economic Roundup: Upcoming Final Piece of GDP Puzzle
We look for durable goods orders to have fallen in September because of transportation. Analysis
Oct 23, 2019

U.S. Regional Outlook: Holding Steady for Now
A slowing national economy will have broad regional ramifications. Analysis
Oct 22, 2019

Housing and Transports Defy Tuesday's Equity Market Slide
If a recession risk were on the rise, share prices of companies with exposure would be declining. Analysis
Oct 22, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Existing-Home Sales Slip
Sales can be choppy but the trend in September has clearly improved thanks to lower mortgage rates. Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

How This Yield Curve Inversion Differs From 2008-2009 and 2001
With its presumed October rate cut, the Fed could make this the shortest inversion since 1998. Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

Economic Roundup: Businesses Can't Shake the Blues
Brexit and the trade tensions are not helping. Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: But Enough About Geopolitics
Temporary factors may have distorted data on industrial production, housing starts and retail sales. Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 21, 2019
Expect the Fed to be quiet in the blackout period before its October FOMC meeting. Analysis
Oct 21, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: A Big 'If'
Will policymakers figure out their mistakes and fix them in time to avoid recession? Analysis
Oct 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: No Pushback From Clarida
All signs point toward a Fed rate cut later this month, but then things get interesting. Analysis
Oct 18, 2019

Solid Case for an October 30 Fed Rate Cut
A further upturn by home sales would strengthen the case for a continued upswing by U.S. consumer spending. Analysis
Oct 18, 2019

Canada Weekly: Brexit Deal Could Be a Boon
The effects for commodity prices and trade flows would help offset a slowdown in global growth. Analysis
Oct 17, 2019

Milder Business Activity Swings Boost Equity Valuations, Keep Rates Low
Since 1984, the NAI's moving three-month average has exceeded 0.70 in only 15 of 416 months. Analysis
Oct 17, 2019

Economic Roundup: Drama on the Thames
Brexit agreement sets up key weekend vote for U.K. Parliament. Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Transportation Index Prices in a Reduced Risk of Recession
Over the last six trading days, the index advanced 6.1% to outrun the market. Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Retail Sales Come Up Short, but Don't Worry
A number of possible temporary factors hurt spending in September. Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Strong U.S. Economy Helps Balance Spending
High-income households dominate, but the strong labor market supports lower-income spending. Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

Retail Sales and Business Inventories Cut Into Q3 GDP
Growth in the latest quarter is now on track to rise 1.5% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Oct 16, 2019

U.S. Retail Sales Disappointing, Not Disastrous
A number of transitory factors may have weighed on results. Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

High-Yield Loan and Bond Default Rates Have Yet to Alarm
High-yield spreads are more likely to widen than narrow. Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

Economic Roundup: Early Look at 2020 Election
All signs point toward Trump winning re-election. Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

Analysis: Vice President Biden's Student Loan Plan
It would ease the financial pressure on borrowers and support stronger economic growth. Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

Our 2020 Presidential Election Models
Early signs point to Trump, though turnout is key. Analysis
Oct 15, 2019

U.S. Energy Spending Up for 2018
A sharp collapse of oil prices at the end of the year has kept 2019 spending lower. Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

Predicted High-Yield Spread Tops Actual Spread for 12 Straight Months
One model estimates a midpoint of 489 basis points for the composite high-yield bond spread. Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

Economic Roundup: Why Wait?
New York Fed releases manufacturing survey a day early and the data were mixed. Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 14, 2019
Data this week, including industrial production, could be impacted by the UAW strike that began in September. Analysis
Oct 14, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: A Green Light for the FOMC
The most recent data give the Fed cover for another rate cut this month. Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: Phase One Done
The U.S. and China have agreed to address some of their short-term rifts. Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Leveraged Loans Have Priced In More Risk Than High-Yield Bonds
The VIX dropped to its lowest level since September 23. Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Lights Out in California
PG&E cut power to much of California this week in an attempt to prevent wildfires. Analysis
Oct 11, 2019

Canada Weekly: Rethinking Vancouver's Foreign Buyers
With a novel approach, we separate the effect of foreign demand from overall nonresident demand.

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