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Sep 17, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Keep Calm and Shop on
Consumers' pocketbooks stay open in the face of rising headwinds. Analysis
Sep 17, 2019

After Attack in Saudi Arabia, Code Red
The attack on the Saudi oil infrastructure brings Saudi Arabia, Iran and the U.S. to the brink. Analysis
Sep 17, 2019

Global Outlook: In the Downswing
Recession fears increase as trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks linger. Analysis
Sep 16, 2019

Economic Roundup: Oil Would Have to Keep Soaring to Do Damage
U.S. economy can weather higher oil prices. Analysis
Sep 16, 2019

FOMC Preview: Another Cut Is Coming
The Fed will cut rates on Wednesday but won't signal that more is necessarily on its way. Analysis
Sep 16, 2019

Moody's Analytics Raises Oil Price Forecast
The change is in response to attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure. Analysis
Sep 16, 2019

New Macro Risks Weigh Against Below-Trend Credit Risk Premiums
Although U.S. consumers help alleviate pressure from Saudi oil attacks and China trade tensions. Analysis
Sep 16, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: The Policy Threat
Barometers of future recession give an almost two-thirds probability of a downturn by the middle of next year. Analysis
Sep 16, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 16, 2019
We expect the FOMC to cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points. Analysis
Sep 13, 2019

Ten-Year Treasury Yield Now Tops September 18's Prospective Fed Funds Rate
But the FOMC's anticipated cut to 1.875% will remove the inverted yield curve. Analysis
Sep 13, 2019

Economic Roundup: In the Consumer We Trust
Concerns of a looming recession may have been premature. Analysis
Sep 13, 2019

Canada Weekly: Manufacturing Checkup
The factory segment will not be the source of strength the economy needs. Analysis
Sep 12, 2019

Fallen-Angel Downgrades Remain Rare Despite Outstandings of Baa3-Grade Bonds
Since the end of 2016, there has been an average of about eight per year. Analysis
Sep 12, 2019

Economic Roundup: More Than Meets the Eye
Core CPI overstates acceleration in U.S. inflation. ECB dovish, but central bank was divided. Analysis
Sep 12, 2019

Less Fizzle to U.S. Core CPI's Recent Sizzle
The medical care CPI is unreliable given the low response rate. Analysis
Sep 12, 2019

Evaluating Senator Warren's Social Security Reform Plan
The proposal addresses the system's financial challenges while substantially increasing benefits. Analysis
Sep 12, 2019

Bond-Implied Ratings of Baa3-Grade Issuers Have Worsened Since End of 2018
The latest global deceleration of business activity has yet to match the severity of 2015-2016's slump. Analysis
Sep 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Little Goods News on the Trade Front
China will exempt some U.S. goods imports from being subject to a tariff. Analysis
Sep 11, 2019

Road to Recession: A Perfect Storm
A combination of events rather than a single one could cause enough damage to trigger a downturn. Analysis
Sep 11, 2019

Initial Thoughts on Dorian's Overall Price Tag
Devastation in the Bahamas drives an initial overall price tag between $3.5 billion and $6.5 billion. Analysis
Sep 11, 2019

Spending Growth Contradictions in 2018
The weakness shown in the Consumer Expenditure Survey contrasts with retail and personal expenditure data. Analysis
Sep 10, 2019

Economic Roundup: Google It
Online searches for "recession" have jumped. Analysis
Sep 10, 2019

Labor Quality: Record Percent of Small Businesses Report as Major Problem
The lack of qualified individuals has slowed the growth of private-sector payrolls. Analysis
Sep 10, 2019

Mostly Positives for U.S. Households in 2018
Poverty fell as median household income inched higher, but health coverage shrank. Analysis
Sep 10, 2019

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Holiday Sales Should Outgrow Last Year
Risks remain very high. Analysis
Sep 09, 2019

Paradoxical Link Between Systemic Leverage and Benchmark Yields Gets Wider Recognition
At long last, this tendency has finally received attention from a leading financial newspaper. Analysis
Sep 09, 2019

Economic Roundup: That Sinking Feeling
Business confidence suggests the global economy is nearing recession. Analysis
Sep 09, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Talking Ourselves Into Recession
Expansions ebb and flow, but fickle sentiment could push the U.S. economy into reverse. Analysis
Sep 09, 2019

Not Wanting to Spook Markets, Fed Will Likely Cut In October
Our new baseline will include three, rather than two, additional cuts this year. Analysis
Sep 09, 2019

Trade War Chicken: The Tariffs and the Damage Done
Economic and political pressures have raised the stakes for the U.S. and China with little sign either side will stand down. Analysis
Sep 09, 2019

The Next Recession: Q&A
We answer questions submitted in response to our recent webinar. Analysis
Sep 09, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 9, 2019
Key data will be consumer prices, retail sales and jobless claims. Analysis
Sep 06, 2019

Base Metals Price Index Increase May Lead Treasury Yield Climb
Thursday's industrial metals price index was the highest base metals price index since April 30. Analysis
Sep 06, 2019

Economic Roundup: Death, Taxes and Disappointing U.S. August Employment
August employment has fallen short of consensus expectations in eight of the past 11 years. Analysis
Sep 06, 2019

Dorian's Economic Impact on the Bahamas
The storm created a humanitarian crisis but the economic implications are likely less severe. Analysis
Sep 06, 2019

Canada Weekly: Resilience Despite Threats
Despite slowing global growth and trade tensions, the country's economy ended August on a high note. Analysis
Sep 06, 2019

Dorian's U.S. Economic Cost
Our preliminary estimate is that losses to the storm's will be between $600 million and $900 million. Analysis
Sep 06, 2019

U.S. Employment Confirms Weakening Economy, Not a Recession
Labor supply constraints are more binding in August. Analysis
Sep 06, 2019

Canada Outlook: Searching for a Leader
As the country chooses new leaders in October the economy also looks for a new source of strength. Analysis
Sep 05, 2019

Economic Roundup: The Sagas Continue
The U.S. and China will meet and it's looking more likely that Brexit will be delayed, again. Analysis
Sep 05, 2019

More Than Trade Tensions Weigh on Financial Markets and Business Outlook
Too many businesses overestimated demand and ability to pass on higher costs to product prices. Analysis
Sep 05, 2019

Final Thoughts Ahead of August U.S. Employment
Watch for potential Census Bureau hiring. Analysis
Sep 04, 2019

Latest Climb by High-Yield EDF Signals a Higher Default Rate
August's high-yield EDF metric of 4.59% favors an increase by the default rate from 3% to 4% by May 2020. Analysis
Sep 04, 2019

Economic Roundup: Bypassing Boris
Power shift? U.K. House of Commons passes the Benn bill. Analysis
Sep 04, 2019

Webinar Replay: The Next Recession
As the trade war and other risks mount, an economic downturn appears ever more likely. Analysis
Sep 03, 2019

Spreads Ballooned and Equities Plunged in 2016 Despite No Recession
A consensus of equity market pros sees the current global slowdown as resembling 2015-2016's short-lived slump. Analysis
Sep 03, 2019

Economic Roundup: Things That Make You Go Hmmm...
ISM manufacturing index drops below 50 while odds of a no-deal Brexit increase. Analysis
Sep 03, 2019

Tariffs Tracker: Trade War Chicken
Either one party gives way, or both get hurt. Analysis
Sep 03, 2019

Declines in U.S. GDP Could Be More Common
It may get a bit harder to differentiate between signal and noise. Analysis
Sep 03, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: The Steadfast Consumer
The trade war looms large, but consumers have yet to feel the pain. Analysis
Sep 03, 2019

Now Elevated Ratio of Corporate Debt to Core Pretax Profits Heightens Credit Risk
Already elevated leverage heightens the imperative for businesses to maintain profit margins and contain indebtedness. Analysis
Sep 02, 2019

Happy Holiday from
We will return on Tuesday. Analysis
Aug 31, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 30, 2019
We will monitor Hurricane Dorian to assess the potential economic costs. Analysis
Aug 30, 2019

Economic Roundup: Weather Watching
Hurricane Dorian could be economically costly. Analysis
Aug 30, 2019

Potential Economic Cost of Hurricane Dorian
The storm could shave a little off third quarter GDP growth. Analysis
Aug 29, 2019

Widening of Mortgage Yield Spread May Not Largely Reflect Worsened Outlook for Consumer Credit
The mortgage yield spread last widened to 186 bps in early July 2016. Analysis
Aug 29, 2019

Economic Roundup: Let's Talk
China and U.S. resume trade talks while revision to Q2 U.S. GDP was uneventful. Analysis
Aug 29, 2019

Trade War Casts a Shadow on U.S. Oil Producers
Higher tariffs could rob U.S. companies of a key market. Analysis
Aug 29, 2019

U.S. Consumer Confidence Depends on the Questions
Widely watched measures have moved differently of late. Analysis
Aug 28, 2019

High-Yield Has Correctly Spotted an Unduly Anxious Equity Market Four Times since 2009
A barely inverted Treasury coupon yield curve hardly assures the arrival of a recession by 2020's final quarter. Analysis
Aug 28, 2019

Economic Roundup: Some Regional Economies are Looking Tired
Share of metros with positive job growth is declining. Analysis
Aug 28, 2019

U.S. Federal Outlook: About That Budget
If lawmakers can't agree on details for fiscal 2020, Washington will be at risk of another shutdown. Analysis
Aug 27, 2019

High-Yield EDF's Default Rate Prediction Tops That of the High-Yield Bond Spread
The leveraged loan market has yet to hint of a recessionary "credit crunch." Analysis
Aug 27, 2019

Economic Roundup: Dudley Do-Wrong
Dudley's op-ed is misguided and could turn up the heat on the current FOMC. Analysis
Aug 27, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Tariffs Test Resilience
Labor and housing markets look okay, but manufacturing is wobbling. Analysis
Aug 26, 2019

Corporate Bonds Shrug Off Recession Fears for Now
The market has yet to signal a recessionary seizing-up of the credit market. Analysis
Aug 26, 2019

Economic Roundup: Call Me Maybe
China and the U.S. might be talking...or perhaps not. Analysis
Aug 26, 2019

U.S. State and Local Outlook: As Good as It Gets
States are adding to their rainy-day funds at a pace seldom seen. Analysis
Aug 26, 2019

Aircraft Orders Boost July Durable Goods
Details were mixed, with U.S. third quarter GDP still tracking 1.8%. Analysis
Aug 23, 2019

Economic Roundup: Trouble Is Brewing
More tariffs and tweets have markets on edge and increase the risk of a recession. Analysis
Aug 23, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 23, 2019
We will be keeping our eye out for developments on the trade front, as risks of further escalation have risen. Analysis
Aug 23, 2019

Updated U.S. Risk Matrix: It's Getting Crowded
Trump talk of replacing the Fed chairman could rattle financial markets. Analysis
Aug 23, 2019

Volatility Up for U.S. New-Home Sales
After a large upward revision to June, July saw a big decline in purchases despite help from lower mortgage rates. Analysis
Aug 23, 2019

Canada Weekly: The Other Oil Industry
Offshore drilling has not been the economic boom once expected. Analysis
Aug 23, 2019

Powell Threads the Needle
The Fed chairman's comments were dovish enough. Analysis
Aug 22, 2019

Economic Roundup: U.S. Manufacturing Continues to Sour
Survey-based data weakened for July. Analysis
Aug 22, 2019

U.S. Consumers Cut Back on Home-Related Purchases
Specialty retailers focused on home goods are suffering. Analysis
Aug 21, 2019

Economic Roundup: Optionality Without Unity
Fed minutes show the central bank leaving the door open for more cuts, but there was little agreement. Analysis
Aug 21, 2019

Lower Mortgage Rates Boost U.S. Existing-Home Sales
Consumer confidence will be increasingly important for sales. Analysis
Aug 21, 2019

Preliminary U.S. Employment Revisions Sting
Average monthly job growth between April 2018 and March 2019 now is much weaker. Analysis
Aug 21, 2019

U.S. Household Credit Data Analysis
Read our comparative analysis of household credit data from the New York Fed and Moody's Analytics. Analysis
Aug 20, 2019

Economic Roundup: Trump Talking More Tax Cuts
Concerns about a recession have reached the White House and the Fed. Analysis
Aug 20, 2019

Low Long-Term U.S. Interest Rates May Hang Around
A 10-year close to 1% could be more likely than a return soon to 2%. Analysis
Aug 20, 2019

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Trade War Threatens Household Balance Sheets
There will be less wealth effect spending. Analysis
Aug 20, 2019

The Inverted Yield Curve at Home and Abroad
Inversions tend to signal recessions in the U.S. but are noisier elsewhere. Analysis
Aug 20, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Tariff Tremors
Recession fears shook financial markets as the trade war dragged on and global growth soured. Analysis
Aug 19, 2019

Economic Roundup: Still Some Jitters About the Yield Curve
It's time to watch the weekly data on initial claims and bank lending. Analysis
Aug 19, 2019

U.S. Employment Outlook: Where Do We Go From Here?
Despite solid average job gains this year, the level of uncertainty in the economy is on the rise. Analysis
Aug 16, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 16, 2019
Will the Fed chairman send policy signals at Jackson Hole? Analysis
Aug 16, 2019

Economic Roundup: You Didn't Think We Would Notice
Trade tensions and a drop in stock prices have dampened U.S. consumers' moods in August. Analysis
Aug 16, 2019

Canada Weekly: When the U.S. Sneezes...
The two national economies are more correlated during periods of distress. Analysis
Aug 15, 2019

Economic Roundup: What Did We Learn?
New data confirm U.S. consumer is fine, but manufacturing's woes continue. Analysis
Aug 15, 2019

Lowest Investment-Grade Industrial Company Bond Yields Since 1956
On Wednesday, the Baa industrial yield closed at 4.08%. Analysis
Aug 15, 2019

U.S. Manufacturing Continues to Struggle
Manufacturing has had a poor run, but the economy can still move forward. Analysis
Aug 15, 2019

U.S. Consumer Shows No Sign of Slowing Down
July retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 0.7%. Analysis
Aug 14, 2019

Recent 2.02% 30-year Treasury Yield Mocks FOMC Estimate
The market now scoffs at the June 19 estimate of a 2.5% long-term average for the federal funds rate. Analysis
Aug 14, 2019

Economic Roundup: Eighty Percent of the Time, It Works Every Time
The 10/2 yield curve inverted but it doesn't mean a recession is imminent, a la 1998. Analysis
Aug 14, 2019

U.S. Regional Outlook: Separating From the Pack
Places that rely on exports to China, particularly crops and livestock, are most at risk. Analysis
Aug 13, 2019

Spec-Grade Bonds: Spread Widens by 120 bps Yearly, but Yield Falls
Moody's long-term Baa industrial company bond yield sank to 4.13% on Monday. Analysis
Aug 13, 2019

Economic Roundup: Olive Branch or Mistletoe
Trump opts to delay some tariffs until December 15 to avoid hurting holiday shopping.

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