NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 12, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S. Inflation Front Could Get Interesting
Lower inflation expectations matter, but not a lot. Other headwinds are more problematic.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 12, 2018

About 24% of Baa3 Issuers Carry a High-Yield Bond Spread
Lower Treasury yields boost mortgage applications.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 12, 2018

Where the Entrepreneurs Are
Our new broad-based startup rate shows which U.S. metro areas are more truly dynamic.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 11, 2018

Short-Term Debt Accounts for 31% of Nonfinancial-Corporate Debt
From a historical perspective, the share is far from alarming.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 11, 2018

Economic Roundup: Keeping Tabs on U.S. Inflation
PPI holds up in November, but further weakness is ahead.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 11, 2018

Uncertainty Surrounding U.S. Monetary Policy Remains Low, for Now
Uncertainty will likely rise next year, as markets and the Fed differ on rate hike expectations.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 10, 2018

Housing, Bank, Small-Company Stocks Sink Amid Market's Slight Gain
The now-2.86% 10-year Treasury yield may help to steady the overall equity market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 10, 2018

Economic Roundup: Got Us Thinking
Markets now put the odds of a single Fed rate hike next year at less than 50%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 10, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Cold Comfort
Weather aside, trend job growth has moderated but remains more than sufficient to lower the unemployment rate over time.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 07, 2018

Mr. Market May Need Some Hand-Holding From the Fed
Continued weakness may dissuade the FOMC from hiking rates at its next meeting

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 07, 2018

Economic Roundup: A Little Bit Softer Now
U.S. job growth slows but remains strong.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 07, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, December 7, 2018
The Fed could opt for a dovish rate hike.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 07, 2018

Canada Weekly: Less Tax, More Borrowing
The government unveils an investment tax break as it faces a widening fiscal deficit.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 07, 2018

Operating Lease and Pension Interest Rates - November 2018


Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 06, 2018

Reconsidering the Gloomy Assessment of Future Business Activity
Fears of a recession in the near future may be overblown.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 06, 2018

Economic Roundup: Markets Reassess Expectations for the Fed
Odds of a December hike have dropped, but we are sticking to our forecast.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 06, 2018

Final Thoughts Ahead of November U.S. Employment
We look for a 205,000 net gain in jobs, but weather is a wild card.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 06, 2018

A Little Tweak to Our Q3 GDP Estimate
The U.S. September quarter is now tracking 3.5%, while Q4 growth is still coming in at 2.8%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 06, 2018

For U.S. Automakers, an Eye on China's Internal Market
A tariff détente would bring benefits, but qualitative measures are of greater concern.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Foreign Bond Yields Rise Despite Lower Overseas Equity Markets
U.S. markets closed for President George H.W. Bush's funeral.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Economic Roundup: What if the Fed Pauses?
To make it count, an extended pause is needed, but it could be risky.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Making a Pause in Rate Hikes Count
If the Fed stood pat only briefly, the economic benefits would be small.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Don't Hold Your Breath for U.S. Inflation
The tariff timeout and lower transportation costs will limit gains in the core PCE deflator.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Gauging CECL Cyclicality
The new bank rules will lower odds that the financial system and economy will suffer as it did a decade ago.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

The Cost of Climate Change
The latest reports warn of steep losses ahead for the U.S. and global economies.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 05, 2018

Canada Outlook: Cause for Caution
The economy faces challenges over the next year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

Lower Interest Rates Might Yet Remedy Worsened Business Outlook
Core business sales' annual growth rate fell in October its slowest since January.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

Economic Roundup: Yield Curve Inversion No Immediate Threat
Despite the compression in the curve, the U.S. economy remains healthy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

Yield Curve Fears Return
Recent compression puts odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 27%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

U.S. Consumer Is Doing Well, Housing Isn't
Vehicle sales boost Q4 GDP, but residential investment came in weaker.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

The Trade War Cease-Fire
Getting China to play fairly in the global economy may have to wait for another day and another approach.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 04, 2018

A Path Forward
The first step has been taken to prevent further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 03, 2018

Corporate Bond Yield Spreads Show Strongest Correlation with Pretax Profits
The credit market is growing more confident that core inflation will be well contained.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 03, 2018

Economic Roundup: Pressing Snooze on the Escalation Clock
The U.S. and China will hold off on further tariffs until March 1.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 03, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Look Who's Talking
Chatter from the White House and Federal Reserve soothes markets, for now.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 03, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, December 3, 2018
The trade ceasefire is sure to garner a lot of attention.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Dec 03, 2018

One Small Step
A trade truce has bigger implications for markets than for the U.S. economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Shrinking Core Profits Tend to Quicken Growth of Net Interest Expense
However, comparisons falter between publicly- and privately held companies.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Economic Roundup: Turning Point for U.S.-China Trade
A comprehensive deal is possible, but we are not holding our breath.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Road to Recession: It's Supposed to Hurt
The Federal Reserve is attempting to cool the economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

U.S. Housing Supply Gap Continues to Grow
The spread between months' supply of new and existing homes widened further in October.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Growth Slows in More Countries
The share of decelerating global GDP has reached the highest level in years.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Acceleration of Decelerating Growth
The share of slowing global GDP has reached the highest level seen in years.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 30, 2018

Whither Trade Relations?
The U.S. and China will explore a trade deal at the G-20 Summit, but we are not holding our breath.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 29, 2018

Expectations of Slower Sales May Prompt Tighter Cost Controls
Employee compensation is tame despite the very low jobless rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 29, 2018

Economic Roundup: Making Fed-Watching Fun Again
The central bank is gearing up for another step to remove forward guidance.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 29, 2018

U.S. Consumer Spending Solid in October
Consumers are doing their part while farm subsidies boosted incomes.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 29, 2018

Don't Worry About the Rise in U.S. Initial Claims—Yet
The rise in initial claims is attributable to this year's early Thanksgiving.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 29, 2018

Cross-Sector: Market Data Highlights


Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 28, 2018

Chairman Powell Calms Mr. Market
The Fed chief's remarks diminished fears of a disruptive ascent by interest rates

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 28, 2018

Economic Roundup: Fixing a Rookie Mistake
Powell corrects his view on where interest rates are relative to neutral.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 28, 2018

Q4 U.S. GDP Tracking Estimate Slips
Wednesday's data were unfavorable, and the economy has lost a step.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 28, 2018

Powell Totally Redeems Himself
Comments by the Fed chair were more a correction than a dovish shift.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 27, 2018

Economic Roundup: Lending a Helping Hand to the Chair
Fed officials are helping to correct Powell's recent slip-up.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 27, 2018

Higher Spec-Grade Bond Yield May Reduce U.S. Business Borrowing
An even higher speculative-grade yield is favored for 2019.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 27, 2018

Walking It Back
Clarida is the latest Fed official to temper Powell's earlier hint on the neutral fed funds rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 27, 2018

U.S. Consumers See Strong Labor Market
The Conference Board's labor market differential points toward a drop in the unemployment rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 27, 2018

U.S. State and Local Outlook: As Good as It Gets?
Tax revenues have strengthened, but the pressures of Medicaid spending will not let up.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 26, 2018

Markets Sense Good News Is Coming on Monetary and Trade Policies
The focus is on possible favorable outcomes from Powell and the G20 meeting.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 26, 2018

Economic Roundup: Major Hurdles Ahead for Brexit Deal
The ball is now in the British prime minister's court.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 26, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Fed Tightening Is Supposed to Hurt
It will be painful, particularly for interest-rate-sensitive segments of the economy, including housing.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 26, 2018

U.S. Investment Taps the Brakes
Fundamentals remain supportive, but business confidence is becoming more cautious.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 26, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 26, 2018
We expect improvement in new-home sales.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 21, 2018

Core Capital Goods Orders Slow on Outlook for Business Sales
High-yield default insurance premium rises to two-year high.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 21, 2018

Economic Roundup: The Fed's Still Got It
Housing is feeling the Fed's pain, but weaker business investment is more about trade than rates.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 21, 2018

Happy Thanksgiving From Economy.com
The website will be fully updated on Monday, November 26.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 21, 2018

U.S. Business Investment Is in a Slump
More troubles are ahead because of the drop in oil prices.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 21, 2018

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Spending Loses Its Luster
Wealth effects have waned as asset price growth slows.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2018

Futures Market, FOMC at Odds on Year-End 2019's Likely Fed Funds Range
Unless the equity market recovers, the futures market should prove the better predictor.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2018

Economic Roundup: Not Supposed to Be a Walk in the Park
The Fed is trying to cool the economy, and that causes some pain.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 20, 2018

Weakening Continues for U.S. Housing Starts
Little improvement is likely through the remainder of this year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2018

Stocks Plunge, but 10-Year Treasury Yield Doesn't Follow
The yield surprisingly ended Monday unchanged at 3.06%.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S. Homebuilders' Mood Sours a Little
NAHB index drops in November but remains at a favorable level, for now.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2018

U.S. Macro Outlook: Fiscal Follies
Stimulus is supporting growth, but at great cost to the nation's economic health.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Spotlight on Inflation
Consumer prices are running right on the Fed's target.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 19, 2018

What Amazon's HQ2 Choices Tell Us
Costs didn't seem to matter to Amazon when choosing HQ2

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 16, 2018

For Yearlong Changes, Profits Grow When Capacity Utilization Rises
Stronger capacity utilization will help to ward off a rise in the high-yield default rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 16, 2018

Economic Roundup: Dust off the Fed Decorder Ring
With explicit forward guidance, central bank communication will be all over the place.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 16, 2018

U.S. Manufacturing Remains on Solid Footing
Manufacturing output rose 0.3% in October even with auto production dropping.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 16, 2018

Canada Weekly: Manitoba Checkup
Manitoba's economy is slowing, but Winnipeg is outperforming.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 16, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 16, 2018
We will be watching oil prices.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

Outstandings of Baa and Baa3 Corporate Bonds Set New Highs
Baa3 bonds are around an unprecedented 56.8% of high-yield U.S. corporates outstanding.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

Economic Roundup: A Smooth Transition
U.S. labor market is helping support spending as consumers come off a tax-cut sugar high.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

U.S. Housing Outlook: Prime-Age Adults Have Not Re-Entered the Market
Households headed by those 35 to 64 are the main culprit for sustained weakness in homeownership.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

California Wildfires' Price Tag Is Steep, and Likely to Rise
The fires' cost will almost certainly surpass $4 billion, perhaps by a large margin.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

Trimming Our Tracking Estimates for Q3 and Q4 U.S. GDP
The economy has slowed a notch this quarter.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

U.S. Retail Sales Were Solid, but Signs Emerge That Tax-Cut Support Is Fading
In October, control retail sales were up only 2% annualized over the prior three months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 15, 2018

Unprecedented Amount of Baa-Grade Bonds Menaces the Credit Outlook (Capital Markets Research)


Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 14, 2018

November's Average for 3-Month Libor Could Set a 10-Year High
Worries about crude oil, global business activity chip away at equities.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 14, 2018

Economic Roundup: It's Not Me, It's EU
A draft Brexit agreement has been drawn up, but the long approval process remains.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 14, 2018

HQ2 Winners Are Primed for Growth—and Growing Pains
Amazon will bring a surge in tech jobs but the story is nuanced for NYC, DC, and Nashville.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2018

Industrial Commodity Price Deflation Weighs on Higher Treasury Yields
Such commodities are sinking in light of lackluster global business activity.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2018

Economic Roundup: Amazon's Prime Picks
The internet behemoth's second headquarters will be split between Virginia and New York.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2018

Oil Dives With Iran in the Balance
Market participants are swiftly recalibrating their expectations for production declines.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 13, 2018

U.S. Regional Outlook: Times Are Good, but Warning Signs Abound
The robust job growth taking place in all four regions will not be matched again this cycle.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2018

Overestimation of Pricing Power Can Worsen the Business Outlook
Consumers appear to be balking at higher prices.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2018

Economic Roundup: Oh-Oil
The losing streak for oil prices continues.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 12, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Ushering in Gridlock
There's plenty to disagree about, but things still need to get done in DC.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 09, 2018

Markets Fret Over Possible Profits Slowdown Amid Rising Interest Rates
Higher U.S. interest rates will only make matters worse for the global economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Nov 09, 2018

Economic Roundup: Jump in U.S. PPI Won't Stick
The slide in oil prices will begin to feed into producer and consumer prices.

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