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Apr 22, 2021

Economic Roundup: Healthy Decline in U.S. Existing-Home Sales
Sales fell in March, reversing only some of the enormous jump in the second half of last year. Analysis
Apr 22, 2021

An Assessment of the American Housing and Economic Mobility Act of 2021
The proposal is fiscally responsible and empowers programs already in place and shown to be effective in meeting the challenges of providing affordable housing. Analysis
Apr 22, 2021

Capital Market View: High-Yield Hot Streak Continues
Issuance in March was strong and the near-term outlook is favorable. Analysis
Apr 22, 2021

A (More Comprehensive) Look Back at the COVID-19 Exposure Index
Revised data for 2020 show that early predictions about U.S. regional impacts generally proved correct. Analysis
Apr 21, 2021

Economic Roundup: Inflation's Transitory Acceleration Is Contagious
Base effects are going to juice consumer prices across many developed economies. Analysis
Apr 21, 2021

Capital Market View: If the Hypothetical Becomes Reality
A jump in long-term rates and drop in stock prices will hurt corporate bonds. Analysis
Apr 20, 2021

Economic Roundup: Vaccine Hesitation Could Slow Progress Toward Herd Immunity
Vaccination progress still mixed among developed economies. Analysis
Apr 20, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Ready, Set, Go
The recovery is gaining traction following a difficult winter. Analysis
Apr 20, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Half of U.S. Adults Have a Shot
Conditions are mixed in Europe, while Japan faces an uphill task. Analysis
Apr 20, 2021

U.S. Auto Credit Hits Cruise Control
Outstanding auto credit balances reach new heights as delinquencies remain at near-record lows Analysis
Apr 20, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Up, Up and Away
A trifecta of vaccine progress, payback from winter storms, and the American Rescue Plan drove last week's string of superlative economic data. Analysis
Apr 20, 2021

Capital Market View: Lull in U.S. Muni Debt Issuance Is Coming
Stimulus will weigh on issuance but talk of Build Back Bonds has caught our attention. Analysis
Apr 19, 2021

Economic Roundup: Global Businesses Are Feeling Better
The recovering global economy is beginning to lift spirits. Analysis
Apr 19, 2021

Capital Market View: Last Week's Drop in U.S. 10-year Treasury Yield Is a Fluke
U.S. economic data are strong but noisy; good news could be bad news on the fiscal front. Analysis
Apr 19, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 19, 2021
Pending home sales support our forecast for a drop in existing-home sales. Analysis
Apr 19, 2021

U.S. Federal Outlook: From COVID Relief to "Build Back Better"
Amid progress in vaccinations, Biden is turning to structural investments in the economy's productive capacity. Analysis
Apr 18, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 3—Inflection Points and Inflation
Economists don't agree on much, especially inflation. Analysis
Apr 16, 2021

Canada Weekly: Semiconductor Shortfall, Auto Stall
The semiconductor chip shortfall is adding to the auto sector's laundry lists of challenges. Analysis
Apr 16, 2021

Economic Roundup: Mother Nature Taketh and Giveth
Bad weather reduced housing starts in February but boosted them in March. Analysis
Apr 16, 2021

The 'Economic Fair Value' of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
The rise of long-term rates is justified given the improvement in the economy. Analysis
Apr 16, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Economy Ramping Up
Parts of the U.S. are approaching pre-pandemic levels of activity. Analysis
Apr 16, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: ECB in Spotlight Next Week
The central bank's policy decision is due next week, but no change is expected. Analysis
Apr 16, 2021

U.S. Retail Sales Were Strong, but Diverse
Growth was not as strong as year-over-year growth suggests. Analysis
Apr 15, 2021

Everything Is Awesome, for Now
Core profits should outpace debt, leading to improved corporate credit quality. Analysis
Apr 15, 2021

Economic Roundup: Unpack Your Adjectives
U.S. retail sales were gangbusters, jobless claims were surprising, and IP was fine. Analysis
Apr 15, 2021

U.S. Retailers Ramp Up Productivity During Pandemic
Fewer workers are selling more goods in most retail segments. Analysis
Apr 15, 2021

Money Burns a Hole in U.S. Consumer Pockets
Retail sales jumped in March, boosting our tracking estimate of Q1 GDP. Analysis
Apr 15, 2021

Strength of U.S. Recovery Depends on Where You Look
Differences are evident not just by region, but by type of activity. Analysis
Apr 15, 2021

Global Outlook: Recovery Fraught With Risk
Fiscal and monetary stimulus continue to support domestic demand, though economies are diverging amid virus outbreaks and vaccine rollouts. Analysis
Apr 14, 2021

Mortgage Applications Yet to Signal Peak Selling Season for Housing
Third straight weekly decline shows home sales pace may be overestimated. Analysis
Apr 14, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Importing Some Inflation, For Now
Import prices rose 1.2% in March, but Thursday should bring a gangbuster retail sales report. Analysis
Apr 14, 2021

U.S. Credit Outlook: Good Times Ahead
Active balances across all products moved higher in March and are up more than 4.1% relative to year-ago levels. Analysis
Apr 14, 2021

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Vaccine Issues and Frothy Markets
The FDA decision on the J&J vaccine may not significantly alter the timing of herd immunity but could pose logistical issues. Analysis
Apr 13, 2021

High-Yield Bond Spread Again Correctly Predicts Decline by VIX
The high-yield bond spread has led the VIX lower for a fourth time since the Great Recession. Analysis
Apr 13, 2021

U.S. Inflation Heat Map Update
Price pressures stepped up in March. Analysis
Apr 13, 2021

Economic Roundup: Energy, Reopening Boosts U.S. CPI in March
Core inflation remains in check, up 1.9% annualized over the prior three months. Analysis
Apr 13, 2021

U.S. Inflation Volatility Has Returned
Core CPI hasn't been this turbulent since the early 1980s. Analysis
Apr 13, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Reopening Boosts CPI
Hotels and motels saw a 4.4% jump. Analysis
Apr 13, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: New Hurdle to Herd Immunity
An FDA decision to temporarily halt the use of the J&J vaccine poses a setback. Analysis
Apr 13, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Another 'Inflection Point'
March could mark a turning in the economy as a so-called dark winter fades away. Analysis
Apr 12, 2021

Getting 5% Bond Yield Requires Tolerating High Risks
Those seeking that level of return need to seek low single-B and high Caa. Analysis
Apr 12, 2021

Economic Roundup: Ignore Those Year-Over-Year Comparisons
All of the distortions in the data from the start of the pandemic are about to hit. Analysis
Apr 12, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 12, 2021
Higher gasoline prices and a jump in unit vehicle sales also point toward a sizable gain in retail sales. Analysis
Apr 12, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 2—Back to Normal and Build Back Better
We discuss key economic data and Biden's infrastructure plan. Analysis
Apr 09, 2021

Refinancings, Acquisitions Led Use of Q1 New Loan Proceeds
The period had the most acquisition-related loans since 2018. Analysis
Apr 09, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Economy Eyes Return to Normal
U.S. economic data remain mostly positive with the recovery expected to accelerate this year. Analysis
Apr 09, 2021

Canada Weekly: Productivity From Home
The output from at-home workers will determine the speed of potential GDP growth. Analysis
Apr 09, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Mostly Green Lights for U.S. Economy
Rioting in Northern Ireland over the past week will bring Brexit back into the spotlight. Analysis
Apr 09, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Mostly Greet Lights for U.S. Economy
Rioting in Northern Ireland over the past week will bring Brexit back into the spotlight. Analysis
Apr 09, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: All Clear for Now
Europe's short-time work schemes are keeping job losses at bay. Analysis
Apr 08, 2021

With C&I Loan Growth, Deleveraging May Be Interrupted
C&I loans increased by 0.6% monthly in February to $2.590 trillion. Analysis
Apr 08, 2021

Economic Roundup: Where's the Improvement in Claims?
Initial claims bucked expectations for a further decline, contrasting recent favorability. Analysis
Apr 08, 2021

The Evolution of the Vaccine: It's Getting Late Early
Demand for COVID-19 vaccines now matters more to states than shortages. Analysis
Apr 07, 2021

Job Openings Jump Complements Small-Business Survey Results
February's NFIB survey found 40% of small-business jobs were hard to fill. Analysis
Apr 07, 2021

Economic Roundup: New Fiscal Policy Assumptions Cause Changes to April U.S. Baseline
We have revised our forecast higher for GDP growth this year, but trimmed it a little for 2022. Analysis
Apr 07, 2021

It Will Take Time for U.S. Consumer Confidence to Fully Recover
Consumer confidence is holding up better than business sentiment, and the gap betweem them could widen. Analysis
Apr 07, 2021

Mapping Economic Scenarios for IFRS 9, CECL and Other Applications
Discretization of a continuous distribution depends critically on the assumptions made and on the shape and regularity of the underlying distribution. Analysis
Apr 06, 2021

Lowest High-Yield Default Risk Metrics Since 2007
The Bloomberg/Barclays high-yield bond spread closed at 295 basis points. Analysis
Apr 06, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: A Spring Bounce in the Economy
The U.S. will likely be the first major economy to achieve herd immunity to the virus. Analysis
Apr 06, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Steps Forward and Back
South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam will be hit by vaccine shipment delays on vaccines. Analysis
Apr 06, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Businesses Gearing Up to Hire
Job openings increased in February, even among industries hit hardest by the COVID-19 crisis. Analysis
Apr 06, 2021

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Women's Employment: An International Perspective
The crisis has slammed female-dominated industries such as hospitality, healthcare, personal services and government much harder than previous downturns. Analysis
Apr 05, 2021

Look for a Less-than-300 BP High-Yield Bond Spread
This threshold could be reached by the end of the week. Analysis
Apr 05, 2021

Look for a Less-Than-300 Bps High-Yield Bond Spread
This threshold could be reached by the end of the week. Analysis
Apr 05, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, April 5, 2021
The state of the economy makes this is an especially propitious time to increase infrastructure investment. Analysis
Apr 05, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Mojo Rising
Though there's plenty of healing left to do, the U.S. economic recovery has entered a new, accelerated phase. Analysis
Apr 05, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. ISMs Looking Good
The ISM nonmanufacturing survey jumps in March. Analysis
Apr 05, 2021

ISM Surveys Show U.S. Economy Is Heating Up
Momentum is growing as we head into the second quarter. Analysis
Apr 05, 2021

U.S. Road to Recovery: Jobs and Transitory Inflation
March likely began a string of several months of strong labor market growth. Analysis
Apr 05, 2021

This Week in the COVID Crisis
For the next six months, probably for the next year, and perhaps even well into next year, real GDP growth and job gains will boom. Analysis
Apr 05, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 1—Booming U.S. Economy and Bubbles
Subscribe to our new weekly podcast. Analysis
Apr 02, 2021

High Times for High Yield
The high-yield bond spread narrowed its thinnest width since June 2007. Analysis
Apr 02, 2021

Economic Roundup: Only the Beginning?
Job growth should be very strong as more of the economy continues to open. Analysis
Apr 02, 2021

Canada Weekly: Winners and Losers
A closer look at industry GDP data shows how uneven the recovery has been. Analysis
Apr 02, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Biden Releases His Infrastructure Plan
France declared a new COVID-19 lockdown. Analysis
Apr 02, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Biden Announces Bigger Spending Plans
The U.S. president proposes laying out nearly $2 trillion for an infrastructure bill. Analysis
Apr 01, 2021

March ISM Index Revives Memories of 1984
After the initial manufacturing growth, GDP set a 69-year record. Analysis
Apr 01, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Manufacturing Is on a Roll
The ISM manufacturing index jumps to its highest level since 1983. Analysis
Apr 01, 2021

Closing the U.S. Tax Refund Gap
Refunds have picked up and are only slightly behind that seen over the past five years. Analysis
Apr 01, 2021

The Macroeconomic Consequences of the American Jobs Plan
The biggest boost to spending goes to traditional infrastructure, including transportation projects, and to shore up the nation's crumbling water and power infrastructure. Analysis
Apr 01, 2021

Final Thoughts Ahead of March U.S. Employment
We look for a 965,000 net gain in employment, which is well above the consensus. Analysis
Apr 01, 2021

Output Gap Extracted From Full Employment
We run our methodology for main countries in N. America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific region and Africa. Analysis
Mar 31, 2021

Record-Low Quarter For Net High-Yield Downgrades
The quarter nearly doubled the record low from 2010. Analysis
Mar 31, 2021

Economic Roundup: Pop in U.S. Employment
The ADP National Employment Report showed a net 517,000 gain in March. Analysis
Mar 30, 2021

NASDAQ, Dow Jones Utilities Show Similar 2021-to-Date Gains
Both indexes have risen a little more than 1% for the year. Analysis
Mar 30, 2021

Economic Roundup: Sell 'Em If You Got 'Em
Lean U.S. housing inventories are driving prices higher, something that will likely continue. Analysis
Mar 30, 2021

Overcoming the Nation's Daunting Housing Supply Shortage
Policymakers should respond to the challenge soon and aggressively to easing the trade, labor, financing and land-use headwinds. Analysis
Mar 30, 2021

U.S.COVID-19 Tracker Update: Economy Bounces Back in March
March data should be strong thanks to weather-related payback and vaccination progress. Analysis
Mar 30, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker Update: Can't Come Soon Enough
We are still expecting that a majority of the population in the EU won't be vaccinated until the autumn. Analysis
Mar 29, 2021

Margin Calls, "Impending Doom" Weigh on Equities
The CDC director warns of another COVID-19 wave, but businesses may be better prepared this time. Analysis
Mar 29, 2021

Economic Roundup: Ever Given Is Free, but Supply-Chain Issues Will Still Be Felt
The week is off to a slow start on the data front, but U.S. manufacturing survey jumps. Analysis
Mar 29, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Temporary Headwinds
Winter weather was a drag on several datapoints last week, but spring promises stronger growth. Analysis
Mar 29, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 29, 2021
For March, the unemployment rate likely fell from 6.2% to 6%. Analysis
Mar 26, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumers Sitting on Boatload of Cash
This boat of cash lends upside to spending while another boat blocks the Suez Canal. Analysis
Mar 26, 2021

Q1 U.S. GDP Tracking Estimate Keeps Sliding
GDP is now tracking 4.8% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Mar 26, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Spain Tops Up Direct Supports
The country's government adds aid to pandemic-battered firms. Analysis
Mar 26, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Kicks Into High Gear
The pandemic's demographic impact will have repercussions. Analysis
Mar 26, 2021

Canada Weekly: Timber!
Skyrocketing lumber prices aren't going away anytime soon. Analysis
Mar 25, 2021

Corporate Credit Cycle Takes Direction From Core Pretax Profits
The 2021 fourth-quarter default rate may be well under fourth-quarter 2020's 8.5%. Analysis
Mar 25, 2021

Economic Roundup: New U.S. Unemployment Filings Drop Below 700,000
Total initial claims were less than 1 million for the first time since the pandemic began.

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