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Jul 05, 2022
Q2 GDP tracking estimate nudged higher, but financial markets are acting like a recession is here.
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Jul 05, 2022
The stock market puts the odds of a recession much higher than the corporate bond market.
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Jul 05, 2022
Sentiment has pulled the measure lower over the past few months.
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Jul 05, 2022
Employment numbers and Fed minutes are in focus this week.
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Jul 05, 2022
The key U.S. bond market appears less worried about inflation than do other corners of the economy.
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Jul 05, 2022
We aren't in the midst of a recession, but that won't stop recession fears from looming large.
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Jul 01, 2022
Our U.S. offices will reopen Tuesday, July 5.
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Jul 01, 2022
The country will not veto the applications of Finland and Sweden to join the alliance.
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Jul 01, 2022
The details were mixed as employment and new orders dropped but supplier deliveries improved.
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Jul 01, 2022
Real spending is little changed over the last seven months.
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Jul 01, 2022
New-vehicle sales continue to underperform.
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Jun 30, 2022
Consumer spending for May puts second-quarter tracking estimate negative.
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Jun 30, 2022
Clearly captured in the latest update is the economic pain Russia's invasion of Ukraine is generating.
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Jun 30, 2022
A second quarter in the red would raise fear of a recession, but it doesn't mean we are in one.
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Jun 30, 2022
By late summer year-on-year price gains will begin to ease, shifting attention to what comes after.
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Jun 30, 2022
High-yield spreads are among the widest since 2020.
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Jun 29, 2022
Revisions to first-quarter GDP look boring, but it was far from it.
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Jun 28, 2022
The Conference Board consumer sentiment survey dropped in June.
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Jun 28, 2022
Copper prices are not good at predicting U.S. recessions.
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Jun 28, 2022
The Supreme Court's decision does not materially change the outlook, but does pose new risks.
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Jun 28, 2022
The Supreme Court's decision does not materially change the outlook, but does pose new risks.
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Jun 28, 2022
Data from the real economy and consumer sentiment are diverging in some confounding ways.
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Jun 27, 2022
Durable-goods orders and shipments nudge the second-quarter GDP tracking estimate higher.
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Jun 27, 2022
The unemployment rate will eclipse pre-pandemic lows by year's end.
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Jun 27, 2022
U.S. durable-goods inventories nudge second-quarter GDP a little higher.
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Jun 27, 2022
The solid labor market can't fully offset the hit to sentiment from higher food and gasoline prices.
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Jun 27, 2022
U.S. durable-goods inventories nudge second-quarter GDP a little higher.
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Jun 27, 2022
U.S. consumers feel down, but they're still spending.
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Jun 27, 2022
First-mortgage lending is downshifting, causing the entire credit market to decelerate.
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Jun 24, 2022
New-home sales had fallen every month this year until they rose in May.
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Jun 24, 2022
The Bank of Canada needs to be careful about its response to the latest CPI report.
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Jun 24, 2022
It's the first step in multiyear process to becoming a full member.
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Jun 24, 2022
Issuance is coming in weaker than expected for the first half of the year.
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Jun 24, 2022
The shift will push up debt burdens.
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Jun 23, 2022
Weekly claims will be a key to watch as the Federal Reserve attempts a soft landing.
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Jun 23, 2022
May was a strong month for much of the nation, but employment growth stalled in smaller states.
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Jun 22, 2022
Savings over the three-month tax holiday would amount to less than $30 for the average driver.
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Jun 22, 2022
A gas tax holiday, even if it were to pass Congress, would provide little relief for consumers.
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Jun 22, 2022
High oil prices, the downturn in asset markets, soaring real estate prices, and persisting inflation are weighing on the psyche of consumers.
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Jun 22, 2022
To squelch inflation, the Fed will take its chances with recession.
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Jun 21, 2022
Rising mortgage rates are behind the drop in sales.
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Jun 17, 2022
Our U.S. offices will be close Monday, June 20, for the federal holiday observance.
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Jun 17, 2022
Industrial production rose less than anticipated in May, putting GDP tracking at 0.6% SAAR.
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Jun 17, 2022
Trade bottlenecks have been a dominant force driving inflation pressures.
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Jun 17, 2022
Some measures of U.S. consumer and business confidence suggest doom and gloom.
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Jun 17, 2022
Rising interest rates at home and in Europe may prove more problematic than previously expected.
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Jun 17, 2022
The country heads to the polls on Sunday to vote for a new president.
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Jun 17, 2022
Inflation tops the list for policymakers worldwide.
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Jun 16, 2022
Housing starts dropped in May and lowered our tracking estimate of second-quarter GDP.
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Jun 16, 2022
Housing starts cut second-quarter GDP to 0.7% at an annualized rate.
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Jun 16, 2022
Discounts on excess goods could slow inflation, at least in some segments.
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Jun 16, 2022
Odds of a downturn have grown but remain well below the threshold needed to change our outlook.
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Jun 16, 2022
The Fed is determined to tame inflation and that means a more aggressive tightening cycle.
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Jun 15, 2022
Fed hikes rates by the most since 1994 and it's just getting started.
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Jun 15, 2022
We continue to monitor developments closely as we adjust our coverage of the pandemic.
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Jun 15, 2022
Don't rule out a second consecutive decline in GDP.
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Jun 15, 2022
U.S. confidence measures diverge.
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Jun 14, 2022
PPI keeps pressure on the Fed, so it will likely hike rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday.
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Jun 14, 2022
Reading the tea leaves strongly suggests the Fed wants to hike more than we thought.
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Jun 14, 2022
The differences in headline and core inflation affect less-educated household finances more.
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Jun 13, 2022
Recessions are, in the end, a loss of faith.
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Jun 13, 2022
Growth in consumer prices accelerated in May, which won't sit well with the Fed or consumers.
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Jun 13, 2022
The Fed will likely send a hawkish signal at its FOMC meeting this week.
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Jun 13, 2022
We take a look at what's really driving inflation.
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Jun 13, 2022
The Fed will likely hike rates by 50 basis points, but be more hawkish in its statement.
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Jun 13, 2022
Concentration shows supply constraints still matter and relief may be coming.
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Jun 10, 2022
The jump in energy prices is one reason U.S. inflation keeps hanging around.
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Jun 10, 2022
Higher vehicle, energy and rental prices continue to pressure some population groups more than others.
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Jun 10, 2022
Consumers are not happy with higher prices, particularly at the pump.
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Jun 10, 2022
The housing market is cooling but demand remains robust, while supply-chain constraints are a headwind.
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Jun 10, 2022
Markets are pricing in three more 50-basis point hikes as inflation remains red hot.
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Jun 10, 2022
Prime Minister Johnson survived a no-confidence vote, but 40% of his party want him out.
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Jun 09, 2022
It is too early to worry about initial claims, as they are volatile around holidays.
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Jun 09, 2022
High-yield issuance was ice cold, but there was an improvement last week.
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Jun 09, 2022
To assess the economic costs, we ran two scenarios through our macroeconomic model.
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Jun 08, 2022
Tariffs usually make more political sense than economic sense and might not be a game changer.
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Jun 08, 2022
U.S. teens have been drawn back to work thanks to rising wages and increased flexibility.
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Jun 08, 2022
The May print could rekindle talk of a 75-basis point hike by the Fed, but it is still unlikely.
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Jun 08, 2022
Boosting the economy's supply side is key to avoiding a recession.
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Jun 07, 2022
There were some revisions to the forecast, but most were fairly modest.
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Jun 07, 2022
The labor market is slowing, but not enough to warrant chatter about an imminent recession.
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Jun 06, 2022
Global business confidence improved a little last week but they're still glum.
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Jun 06, 2022
May's decline in retail employment is a bit puzzling.
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Jun 06, 2022
Green bond issuance jumped in May, supported by larger, rather than more, deals.
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Jun 06, 2022
As the economy moves away from goods and toward services, underlying growth continues but may be vulnerable.
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Jun 03, 2022
Job growth is moderating but remains very strong, keeping pressure on the Fed.
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Jun 03, 2022
Not seasonally adjusted U.S. retail employment fell in May; that hasn't happened since the 1960s.
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Jun 03, 2022
The sanctions would immediately impact 75% of oil imports from Russia.
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Jun 03, 2022
Rapid interest-rate increases put highly leveraged households back in the spotlight.
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Jun 02, 2022
Businesses are hesitant to lay off workers as initial claims remain low.
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Jun 02, 2022
Energy prices dipped slightly in April, shaving more than 20 basis points off the headline.
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Jun 02, 2022
Survey data provide some hints of relief.
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Jun 02, 2022
High-yield issuance remains cold.
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Jun 02, 2022
The economy is slowing and the labor market is not immune.
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Jun 01, 2022
Gasoline prices are going to rise further, but the consumer can weather it.
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Jun 01, 2022
Term premiums on long-term bonds have barely moved.
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Jun 01, 2022
The Fed signaled that it may take a breather later in the year to assess the effects of its hawkish pivot.
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Jun 01, 2022
The global energy supply crunch will get worse before it gets better.
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Jun 01, 2022
China's 2020 ban on Australian coal gives us an insight into how commodity markets might respond to sanctions against Russia.
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May 31, 2022
Conference Board survey is holding up better than other measures, thanks to the job market.
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