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Oct 18, 2018

September's FOMC Meeting Preceded October's Equity Turmoil
The market couldn't have been reacting to talk of a restrictive Fed policy. Analysis
Oct 18, 2018

Economic Roundup: Watch U.S. Initial Claims
If financial market conditions affect the economy, it would first be visible in claims. Analysis
Oct 18, 2018

U.S. Employment Outlook: Hot Enough for You?
One factor helping to contain wage growth and overheating is the lingering effect of the Great Recession. Analysis
Oct 17, 2018

Fed Policy Has Already Turned Restrictive for Interest-Sensitive Shares
Home and vehicle sales are among the first to feel the pinch of higher interest rates. Analysis
Oct 17, 2018

Economic Roundup: Stating the Obvious
There's a strong consensus within the Fed that monetary policy will need to turn restrictive. Analysis
Oct 17, 2018

U.S. Regional Outlook: Job Growth Accelerates
Fiscal stimulus has contributed to faster job gains despite a shrinking pool of available workers. Analysis
Oct 17, 2018

U.S. Housing Can't Break Out of Its Minor Slump
Starts dropped in September but there appears to be some hurricane effect. Analysis
Oct 17, 2018

Cost Update on the U.S. Hurricanes
Damage from Michael looks worse one week later, while Florence's price tag has been lowered. Analysis
Oct 16, 2018

Surge by Share Prices Fails to Lift Treasury Yields Materially
If you adhere to the 4% or higher prediction for the 10-year Treasury, the best is yet to come for U.S. equities. Analysis
Oct 16, 2018

Economic Roundup: A Day of Welcome Surprises
Industrial production rose more than anticipated. Analysis
Oct 16, 2018

U.S. Energy Consumption Rose in 2017
Fossil fuel price increases drove up spending. Analysis
Oct 15, 2018

M&A-Linked Downgrades Are Well Under 2007's Count
Thus far, the equity market has had difficulty shouldering a 10-year Treasury yield above 3%. Analysis
Oct 15, 2018

Economic Roundup: The U.S. Consumer is Fine
Retail sales disappointed, but the details were better than the headlines would suggest. Analysis
Oct 15, 2018

U.S. Macro Outlook: Geopolitical Threats
The most immediate concern for investors is the escalating trade war. Analysis
Oct 15, 2018

U.S. Retail Sales Not as Weak as They Appear
Control sales posted a solid gain for the month of September. Analysis
Oct 15, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Riding Out the Storm
The Fed is the likely catalyst for the recent selloff in U.S. equities, because it isn't tied to economic fundamentals. Analysis
Oct 12, 2018

A Neutral Federal Funds Rate Is Far From Universally Neutral
The range could set a top for one industry and put downward pressure on another. Analysis
Oct 12, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 12, 2018
We are watching for the hurricane effects. Analysis
Oct 12, 2018

Economic Roundup: No U.S. Inflation Threat in Import Prices
Inflation expectations, which declined, are clearly on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's radar. Analysis
Oct 12, 2018

Hurricane Michael's Initial Price Tag: $15 Billion to $21 Billion
Storm unleashed massive devastation in a few areas while disrupting much of the Southeast. Analysis
Oct 12, 2018

Canada Weekly: Beware of Entangling Alliances
The USMCA trade deal contains a clause aimed at preventing Canada from forging a pact with China. Analysis
Oct 12, 2018

Little Movement in Our Tracking Estimate of Q3 U.S. GDP
Next week brings some key inputs and there could be a hurricane effect. Analysis
Oct 11, 2018

Will Thin High-Yield Spread Again Overrule Above-Trend VIX?
Meanwhile, what has become of the Phillips curve? Analysis
Oct 11, 2018

Economic Roundup: Used-Car Prices Ding U.S. Core Inflation in September
It was another bad day on Wall Street but neither the Fed or economy will budge, for now. Analysis
Oct 11, 2018

In Defense of the Fed
Trust the process. Analysis
Oct 11, 2018

Slow Start for U.S. Government Spending Buildup
We have revised our near-term federal fiscal assumptions as the stimulus is spread over a longer period. Analysis
Oct 10, 2018

Higher Interest Rates May Be the Source of Their Own Demise
Free-falling share prices might drive the 10-year Treasury yield under 3% fairly soon. Analysis
Oct 10, 2018

Economic Roundup: This, Too, Shall Pass
Economy's fundamentals will win the day. Analysis
Oct 10, 2018

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Holiday Sales Will Be Strong Again
The robust labor market is the key support. Analysis
Oct 09, 2018

Index of Housing Stock Prices Sinks by 20% Year to Date
The next recession may show that real estate prices are too high in a number of regions. Analysis
Oct 09, 2018

Economic Roundup: Confidence Still Hovering on Cloud 9
U.S. small business sentiment slipped in September but remains near its historical high. Analysis
Oct 09, 2018

Homeowners Prop Up U.S. Saving
Ten years after the financial crisis, personal saving for households is in much better shape. Analysis
Oct 09, 2018

Hurricane Michael's Potential Cost
The storm's impact on fourth quarter U.S. GDP will be small. Analysis
Oct 09, 2018

Softness Abroad, Higher Interest-Sensitive Shares at Home Hint of a Top for Treasury Yields
Monday's gains by public utility and housing shares may be in anticipation of a Tuesday dip by Treasury bond yields. Analysis
Oct 08, 2018

Economic Roundup: China Steps on Accelerator but Focus Remains on U.S. 10-year
Term premium is rising, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up, and there is more room to run. Analysis
Oct 08, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 5, 2018
September CPI unlikely to have significant monetary policy implications. Analysis
Oct 08, 2018

Assessing Florence's Impact on U.S. Employment
Storm likely subtracted 40,000 to 50,000 from September gain. Analysis
Oct 08, 2018

Global Outlook: Diverging Growth
The expansion will become more uneven as tighter financial conditions and trade risks intensify. Analysis
Oct 05, 2018

Markets Sense More Downside Risk for Corporate Earnings
September jobs report doesn't boost inflation expectations materially. Analysis
Oct 05, 2018

Economic Roundup: Here We Go Again
A storm sinks September payrolls for the second year in a row. Analysis
Oct 05, 2018

U.S. Labor Market Keeps Sailing Along
Hurricane Florence and calendar quirks hurt job growth but the unemployment rate dropped. Analysis
Oct 05, 2018

Canada Weekly: The Dairy Deal
The new trade deal will hurt Canadian dairy, benefit consumers. Analysis
Oct 05, 2018

Operating Lease and Pension Interest Rates - September 2018 Analysis
Oct 04, 2018

Interest-Sensitive Equities Issue a Warning
Weak housing- and motor vehicle-related stocks imply an outlook that is not universally rosy. Analysis
Oct 04, 2018

Economic Roundup: September Is Special
U.S. job growth in September will likely underperform the previous six-month average. Analysis
Oct 04, 2018

Final Thoughts Ahead of U.S. September Employment
Expect some hurricane effect, and a calendar quirk also could weigh on job growth. Analysis
Oct 04, 2018

Equities Suggest Latest Climb by Treasury Yields Is Excessive (Capital Markets Research) Analysis
Oct 03, 2018

Third Quarter's High-Yield Outlook Changes Turn Positive
Ten-year Treasury bond yield jumps in daily trading. Analysis
Oct 03, 2018

Economic Roundup: Vehicle Sales Make a U-Turn in September
GDP growth in the third quarter is still on track to rise 3.2% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Oct 03, 2018

Cross-Sector: Market Data Highlights Analysis
Oct 03, 2018

Outstandings of High-Yield Bonds Continue Seven-Quarter Fall
High-yield downgrades were off 69% y/y, while upgrades dropped 13%. Analysis
Oct 02, 2018

Economic Roundup: No More Hand-Holding by the Fed
Fed's forward guidance is dead, but don't expect any surprises by the central bank. Analysis
Oct 02, 2018

Better Educated Drive Most Shifts in U.S. Saving
Households with a college degree do nearly all of the saving. Analysis
Oct 02, 2018

Saving in U.S. Concentrated Among the Better Educated
Households with a college degree do nearly all of the saving. Analysis
Oct 02, 2018

Saving in U.S. Is Concentrated Among the Better Educated
Households with a college degree do nearly all of the saving. Analysis
Oct 02, 2018

Bull's-Eye Now on China
U.S. trade policy is likely in the process of shifting. Analysis
Oct 02, 2018

Under the Hood of the New NAFTA
Beyond modest benefits for U.S. automakers and dairy producers, the new trade pact brings little change. Analysis
Oct 01, 2018

High-Yield Downgrade Ratio Drops to 25-Year Low
Newly rated loans from high-yield issuers decelerate. Analysis
Oct 01, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S. Manufacturing Continues to Motor Ahead
ISM manufacturing index fell in September, but the details remained favorable. Analysis
Oct 01, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Braced for a Tariff Bite
The trade war and rising interest rates will add speed bumps to the expansion. Analysis
Sep 28, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 28, 2018
Hurricane Florence will have added uncertainty to the latest employment numbers. Analysis
Sep 28, 2018

Softer Home, Auto Sales Belie Forecasts of 5% 10-year Treasury Yield
In fact, yields may drop in in face of weakening interest-sensitive sales. Analysis
Sep 28, 2018

Economic Roundup: Nothing to Fear in U.S. Inflation
With the economy in the sweet spot, the Fed's focus should shift to engineering a soft landing. Analysis
Sep 28, 2018

Canada Weekly: The Canadian Dream
The country has created an immigration system that fosters growth and allows migrants to prosper. Analysis
Sep 28, 2018

Addressing the Affordable Housing Crisis
The gap between demand and supply is large and there are significant constraints on builders. Analysis
Sep 27, 2018

Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP Alone Can't Predict Defaults
Ratio is more reliable if accompanied by shrinkage in core profits. Analysis
Sep 27, 2018

Economic Roundup: Trade Is Going to Sting Q3 GDP
GDP for the quarter is now tracking 3.2% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Sep 27, 2018

Re-Evaluating Q3 U.S. GDP
Trade is going to take a big bite off growth this quarter. Analysis
Sep 26, 2018

Economic Roundup: Harping on One Word
Fed drops "accommodative," and a debate is born. Analysis
Sep 26, 2018

Housing Sector Share Price Drop Deeper Than on Shanghai Composite
A further climb by benchmark interest rates could drive home sales even lower. Analysis
Sep 26, 2018

Housing Share Prices Drop Deeper Than on Shanghai Composite
A further climb by benchmark interest rates could drive home sales even lower. Analysis
Sep 26, 2018

U.S. New-Home Sales Can't Buck the Trend
The string of disappointing housing data continues. Analysis
Sep 26, 2018

So You're Saying There's a Chance
Chatter about a possible U.S. government shutdown picks up, but the economic costs would be very small. Analysis
Sep 26, 2018

Faster Productivity Growth May Offset the Drag of an Aging Population
Labor productivity's performance matters considerably. Analysis
Sep 25, 2018

Economic Roundup: Smiling From Ear to Ear
Consumer confidence increases in September, hitting a high for the cycle. Analysis
Sep 25, 2018

Brexit Deal or No Deal
Five scenarios define the range of possibilities; we assess their impact on the U.K., the EU and global economies. Analysis
Sep 25, 2018

U.S. Regional Outlook: Hallmarks of a Late Cycle
Capacity constraints and cost pressures are growing increasingly prevalent. Analysis
Sep 24, 2018

Markets Fret Over a Possibly Aggressive Fed
Adding to the unease are uncertainties about trade disputes and the midterms. Analysis
Sep 24, 2018

Economic Roundup: Not the Last We Have Seen of U.S. Tariffs
U.S. implements more levies on China, and odds are rising more are on their way. Analysis
Sep 24, 2018

Tariffs Tracker: President Trump Ups the Ante
The U.S. has now put levies on more than $300 billion worth of goods, or about 13% of total imports. Analysis
Sep 24, 2018

Webinar Replay: The Cost of Hurricane Florence
Hear our discussion of the storm's price tag and its effect on the wider economy. Analysis
Sep 24, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Trouble in the East, Far East
Significant hurricane damage to the East Coast and new tariffs against China are both bad news. Analysis
Sep 24, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 24, 2018
The focus this week is on the FOMC and a likely interest rate hike. Analysis
Sep 24, 2018

U.S. Employment Outlook: Where Are We Now?
The labor market will start to face more binding supply constraints next year. Analysis
Sep 21, 2018

Flow of Funds' New Definition of Liquid Assets Invites Dissent
Both recent definitions may not be liquid enough in a time of systemic stress. Analysis
Sep 21, 2018

Economic Roundup: Recess Needed in Divorce Court
Tensions escalated between the U.K. and the European Union; a deal is still likely. Analysis
Sep 21, 2018

FOMC Preview: Signed Sealed and Delivered
The Fed will raise rates, but the main events will be the economic and interest rate projections. Analysis
Sep 21, 2018

Canada Weekly: Investors' Big Bet
Actions speak louder than words and Canadian investors are betting against a NAFTA deal. Analysis
Sep 20, 2018

The Economics of Puerto Rico's Post-Maria Recovery
Rebuilding is far from over, and policymakers can still shape the island's economic prospects. Analysis
Sep 20, 2018

Second-Quarter Corporate Debt Hits a Record 46.2% of GDP
Higher yields now trim investment-grade bond issuance. Analysis
Sep 20, 2018

Economic Roundup: Hurricane Florence Likely Depressed Initial Claims
New filings will jump in the next couple of weeks. Analysis
Sep 20, 2018

Florence's Price Tag Rises
As U.S. flooding worsens, storm's cost approaches $50 billion. Analysis
Sep 19, 2018

Third Quarter's High-Yield Downgrade Ratio May Set a New Low
Upgrades, meanwhile, may be due to deleveraging, profits growth, better cash flow, and revenue growth. Analysis
Sep 19, 2018

Third-Quarter's High-Yield Downgrade Ratio May a Set a New Low
Upgrades, meanwhile, may be due to deleveraging, profits growth, better cash flow, and revenue growth. Analysis
Sep 19, 2018

Economic Roundup: Hold Your Horses on U.S. Housing
Starts jumped in August, but permits were a little troubling. Analysis
Sep 19, 2018

U.S. Macro Outlook: Mistakes Will Happen
Risk-taking, leveraged lending and fiscal and monetary policy bear watching for missteps. Analysis
Sep 18, 2018

Shrinkage of High-Yield Bonds Outstanding Thins the High-Yield Spread
U.S. and Chinese equities get a small lift from trade news. Analysis
Sep 18, 2018

Economic Roundup: The New Tariff in Town
President Trump will impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods imports next week. Analysis
Sep 18, 2018

U.S. Population Growth Slightly Slower
We have a more pessimistic outlook for birth rates than in our prior forecast. Analysis
Sep 18, 2018

More Tariffs on the Way
The U.S.-China trade war escalates with 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports.

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