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Jun 26, 2019
Some signs of hope, then confusion on trade deal progress.
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Jun 26, 2019
Current business activity deceleration has not approached 2015-2016's profits recession.
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Jun 26, 2019
U.S. growth is now reading 1.8% at an annualized rate; inventories are a key culprit.
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Jun 26, 2019
They do, especially when the debate stage is crowded.
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Jun 26, 2019
Revisions are minor in aggregate, but recent volatility is more extreme than prior data showed.
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Jun 25, 2019
Lower interest rates need to rejuvenate business activity if M&A is to appreciably grow again.
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Jun 25, 2019
A downturn is coming, but the timing is uncertain.
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Jun 25, 2019
New-home sales didn't alter our estimate of Q2 GDP, but revisions to retail sales did.
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Jun 25, 2019
Sentiment is most important around inflection points in the economy.
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Jun 25, 2019
Sentiment numbers are swooning despite the still-strong economy.
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Jun 24, 2019
A three-month Treasury bill rate of 2.13% has already priced in a federal funds rate of 2.125% by the end of July.
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Jun 24, 2019
Confidence is consistent with a global economy that is stalling.
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Jun 24, 2019
The U.S. economy has deviated little from the playbook since the 2017 tax law.
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Jun 21, 2019
The country accounted for 72.5% of the emerging markets' outstanding nonfinancial corporate debt.
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Jun 21, 2019
With the central bank almost committed to a rate cut, the end of the trade issues would boost equity markets.
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Jun 21, 2019
We expect a deal between the U.S. and China at the G-20 meeting, or at a minimum a truce.
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Jun 21, 2019
The estimated odds of a recession in Canada are reaching concerning levels.
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Jun 20, 2019
However, if companies substantially increase their debt, credit will suffer.
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Jun 20, 2019
Fed not alone, as RBA could eye another cut.
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Jun 20, 2019
It will take a lot to prevent a cut in July, but nothing is certain.
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Jun 20, 2019
This is dovish for the path of interest rates and could lead to a cut.
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Jun 20, 2019
Costs drive movement to cheaper areas—to a degree.
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Jun 20, 2019
The implied probability of fed funds' midpoint staying at 2.375% sank to 0% after the FOMC meeting.
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Jun 19, 2019
Bar is much lower for a cut this year and it could come in July.
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Jun 19, 2019
Recession fears have suddenly come to the fore.
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Jun 19, 2019
The implied probability of fed funds finishing 2019 above their current 2.375% midpoint is 0%.
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Jun 18, 2019
ECB's Mario Draghi turns more dovish while Trump has considered demoting Powell.
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Jun 18, 2019
The European Central Bank president signals the bank is ready to act, if needed.
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Jun 18, 2019
The put has helped the market in the past but could pack less of a punch down the road.
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Jun 17, 2019
Since June 14, 2018, the yield has dropped from 2.94% to a recent 2.09%.
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Jun 17, 2019
The FOMC will likely leave interest rates unchanged this week, but Powell's statements will be telling.
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Jun 17, 2019
No glaring potential macroeconomic imbalances are forming yet.
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Jun 17, 2019
Chairman Powell will need to thread a needle.
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Jun 14, 2019
Although the average of both predicted midpoints warn of a wider high-yield bond spread.
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Jun 14, 2019
May data reports for the U.S. and China were positive, but that may complicate negotiations.
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Jun 14, 2019
The economy was gathering momentum before the trade tensions escalated.
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Jun 14, 2019
A drop in exports held back stronger GDP growth in the first quarter.
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Jun 13, 2019
The 10-year Treasury yield will probably average something less than 2.5% through the end of 2020.
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Jun 13, 2019
Claims may be signaling that worker confidence has peaked and job growth is slowing.
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Jun 13, 2019
Federal relief can matter a lot in disaster-stricken regional economies.
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Jun 12, 2019
Year-over-year retail sales growth slowed from 4.8% in 2018 to 3.0% in 2019.
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Jun 12, 2019
Mandatory programs push U.S. deficits higher.
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Jun 12, 2019
Real growth in federal outlays has actually been slowing.
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Jun 11, 2019
First-quarter 2019's corporate debt advanced by 8.1% year over year to $9.913 trillion.
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Jun 11, 2019
Year-over-year PPI growth is decelerating due to falling energy prices.
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Jun 11, 2019
This may seem surprising considering the trade war between the U.S. and its top trading partners.
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Jun 11, 2019
Expansion is slowing amid rising downside risks.
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Jun 11, 2019
The labor market is in good shape, but manufacturing is on edge.
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Jun 11, 2019
The market value of U.S. common stock edged higher by 2.3% from its close of last June 14.
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Jun 10, 2019
Trump's tariff threats pivot from Mexico to China while the Fed mulls a pivot to interest rate cuts.
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Jun 10, 2019
President Trump again threatened levies on nearly $300 billion worth of Chinese goods imports.
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Jun 10, 2019
The June baseline will include no Fed hike in 2020 and a lower 10-year yield forecast.
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Jun 10, 2019
The April tax windfall was only a fleeting relief for the Treasury under the debt limit.
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Jun 07, 2019
Job growth was weak in May, but eventually this will be normal.
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Jun 07, 2019
Also, the market now thinks the Fed will cut rates three times in 2019.
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Jun 07, 2019
Key data ahead include retail sales, industrial production and consumer prices.
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Jun 07, 2019
Slower growth in the U.S. and elsewhere could exacerbate Canada's problems.
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Jun 07, 2019
If employment falls, chances are good we are in a recession.
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Jun 07, 2019
Our takeaway from the central bank's conference is that it will adopt average inflation targeting next year.
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Jun 06, 2019
The assets of U.S. private depository institutions equal 45% of loans, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds.
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Jun 06, 2019
We are adjusting our forecast for the ECB and now don't anticipate a hike this year.
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Jun 06, 2019
The calendar could be a positive, and we look for a 190,000 net gain.
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Jun 05, 2019
The weak NAI may help explain why the annual rate of core PCE price index inflation was 1.8% despite a low jobless rate.
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Jun 05, 2019
The president reiterates his tariff threats on Mexico as the U.S. labor market softens.
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Jun 05, 2019
The Fed's cutting of interest rates in response to the yield curve in 1998 prevented a recession.
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Jun 04, 2019
Markets were happy to hear that the central bank would step in if the economy needs it.
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Jun 04, 2019
Small components of GDP account for a large share of volatility in growth.
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Jun 04, 2019
The use of tariffs as a policy lever could cause us to adjust the odds around our trade war scenarios.
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Jun 04, 2019
The presidential candidate has a proposal to address climate change and infrastructure.
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Jun 03, 2019
U.S. bond market is on edge, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield down toward 2%.
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Jun 03, 2019
As the trade wars escalate, threats to the U.S. economy are mounting.
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Jun 03, 2019
Rate cuts in 1998 helped avoid a recession after a yield-curve inversion.
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Jun 03, 2019
Last week's data predate the latest rounds of trade war escalation.
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Jun 03, 2019
Just as growth begins to regain momentum, downside risks intensify.
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May 31, 2019
Also, industrial metals price index sunk to its lowest since January 6.
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May 31, 2019
A fresh trade war with Mexico could hurt sentiment and boost recession risks.
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May 31, 2019
Employment data and Fed speeches will dominate the week ahead.
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May 31, 2019
Trade tensions could do even more damage, and the central bank may have to respond.
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May 31, 2019
What does the move against Mexico mean for the U.S. trade discussions with China?
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May 31, 2019
The potential for this to escalate quickly, boosts recession risks and odds of a Fed cut.
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May 30, 2019
The default rate was higher 12 months after a Treasury yield curve inversion 79% of the time.
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May 30, 2019
Fed unlikely to get worked up over the downward revision to Q1 core PCE deflator.
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May 30, 2019
Is use of the term an excuse rather than an explanation?
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May 30, 2019
Nearly 6 months into the year, we look back at our projections; there have been some surprises.
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May 29, 2019
Moody's long-term Baa industrial company bond yield average only slightly dipped.
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May 29, 2019
Recent drop in the 10-year Treasury yield is roughly equivalent to a Fed rate cut.
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May 29, 2019
Expect national demand to rise slowly but steadily.
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May 28, 2019
The unemployment rate has done little to boost inflation risks, so the Fed can raise rates.
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May 28, 2019
U.S. consumers haven't responded to the escalation in the trade tensions, yet.
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May 28, 2019
Business confidence will likely sour even further.
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May 28, 2019
The trade war and low housing affordability drove some disappointments.
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May 25, 2019
We look for a downward revision to first-quarter GDP.
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May 24, 2019
The U.S. offices of Economy.com will be closed Monday.
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May 24, 2019
The chances of a no-deal Brexit have significantly increased.
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May 24, 2019
Higher interest rates are having a counterintuitive effect on inflation.
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May 23, 2019
Markets beginning to feel that the trade tensions won't go away soon.
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May 23, 2019
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of 2.31% looks incredibly generous in comparison.
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May 23, 2019
Overall economic conditions are strong, but there are spending challenges in education, healthcare and infrastructure.
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May 22, 2019
FOMC minutes don't alter our view that rates are on hold for the foreseeable future.
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