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Jan 21, 2022
Investor sentiment needs a boost, but it won't come from the Fed.
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Jan 21, 2022
The Bank of Canada may raise rates sooner than previously anticipated given mounting cost pressures.
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Jan 21, 2022
As Omicron cases begin to subside, the economic recovery and the U.S. Back-to-Normal Index will pick up steam.
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Jan 21, 2022
Aside from the first wave, the effects on financial markets of subsequent waves have been small.
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Jan 21, 2022
With firms' balance sheets in good shape, the outlook for business-to-business spending is favorable.
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Jan 21, 2022
How risk managers can deal with late-breaking events for their CECL and IFRS 9 scenarios.
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Jan 21, 2022
Indonesia eases its coal exports ban as Malaysia adds to the international pressure.
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Jan 21, 2022
As governments look to unwind the effects of pandemic-era support, risks to the outlook rise.
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Jan 20, 2022
Initial claims increased 55,000 to 286,000 in the week ended January 15.
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Jan 20, 2022
Moody's Analytics expects the economy to reach full employment by the end of 2022.
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Jan 20, 2022
Financial market conditions tightened the last time the Fed let its balance sheet decline.
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Jan 20, 2022
The pickup is being driven disproportionately by the Northeast and states with more cases.
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Jan 19, 2022
The outlook is solid as permits continue to run ahead of starts.
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Jan 19, 2022
The COVID-19 Omicron variant's adverse effect on the U.S. economy is increasingly visible.
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Jan 19, 2022
Last year was a record year for high-yield issuance but it is set to slow.
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Jan 18, 2022
Empire State manufacturing survey's general business conditions index plunged in January.
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Jan 18, 2022
Despite damage from Omicron, the central bank has plenty of reasons to hike rates in March.
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Jan 18, 2022
We look for housing starts to have risen from 1.679 million annualized units in November to 1.689 million in December.
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Jan 18, 2022
The worst appears over, but Omicron will stall improvement.
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Jan 18, 2022
The U.S. consumer is in much better shape than the latest retail sales numbers imply.
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Jan 14, 2022
Our U.S. offices will be closed Monday, January 17, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
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Jan 14, 2022
Seasonal adjustment factors were challenging and contributed to the decline.
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Jan 14, 2022
It is unclear how rate hikes and quantitative tightening will interact with each other.
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Jan 14, 2022
Lifting monetary policy accommodation isn't going to go smoothly.
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Jan 14, 2022
The pandemic-induced migration boom is more than just a big-city exodus.
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Jan 14, 2022
Due to a strong recovery, the Fed is gearing up to tighten its policy this year.
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Jan 14, 2022
In the short term, Australia's coal exports will rise.
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Jan 14, 2022
Strength was widespread, but the magnitude varied by segment.
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Jan 14, 2022
Spending is still solid as retail sales are 8.4% above their pre-pandemic trend.
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Jan 13, 2022
Initial claims increase but remain fairly low.
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Jan 13, 2022
Besides a slight decline in energy prices, cost pressures held firm in December.
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Jan 13, 2022
A staggering 17 states plus Washington DC lost residents in 2021.
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Jan 13, 2022
The Fed will lean on its balance sheet to keep the yield curve from inverting.
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Jan 13, 2022
Our 2022 U.S. view reflects the rising infections due to Omicron along with other evolving factors.
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Jan 12, 2022
Energy and supply chains continue to account for the bulk of the year-over-year increase in the CPI.
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Jan 12, 2022
Republicans and some Democrats have expressed concerns that BBB legislation will add to inflation.
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Jan 11, 2022
January's baseline has a small fiscal package and a more aggressive Fed.
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Jan 11, 2022
Discussion of shrinking the balance sheet has pushed 10-year real Treasury yields higher.
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Jan 11, 2022
Companies are learning to mitigate supply-chain disruptions by building inventory and exploring alternative sourcing.
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Jan 10, 2022
Some signs emerge that Omicron is cutting into the economy.
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Jan 10, 2022
The consumer price index for December, due out this week, will show that year-over-year growth exceeded 7% and hasn't peaked yet.
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Jan 10, 2022
The Fed may need to remove policy accommodation soon as inflation north of 7% won't sit well.
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Jan 10, 2022
On average, 537,000 jobs were added per month in 2021.
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Jan 10, 2022
Workers in low-wage jobs lead the way in the record rate of employees quitting their jobs.
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Jan 10, 2022
Limited supply and favorable demographics will prevent a collapse in 2022.
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Jan 07, 2022
December U.S. employment is much stronger than it appears as seasonal adjustment issues continue.
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Jan 07, 2022
The virus variant will temporarily disrupt the job market, and the January employment report could be ugly.
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Jan 07, 2022
December's results show nearly 6.5 million jobs were added in 2021.
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Jan 07, 2022
Surging COVID-19 cases are going to weigh heavily on U.S. job growth this month.
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Jan 07, 2022
The labor market is healing faster than it appears and the Fed may need to act soon.
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Jan 07, 2022
Longer workweeks are driving turnover and job switching.
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Jan 07, 2022
COVID-19 vaccination means production is unlikely to be stymied the same way that it was during the mid-2021 Delta wave.
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Jan 07, 2022
If some form of the legislation isn't passed by February, it likely won't pass at all.
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Jan 07, 2022
The path of the U.S. economy and inflation remain tied to the pandemic.
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Jan 06, 2022
Historically, the ISM nonmanufacturing index rarely stays above 60 for long.
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Jan 06, 2022
We look for nonfarm employment to have jumped by 580,000.
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Jan 06, 2022
Spreads widen while the holidays impacted corporate bond issuance.
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Jan 06, 2022
Under our baseline forecast, we expect Chinese officials to work through property market troubles and avoid a hard landing.
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Jan 06, 2022
Strides in harder-hit U.S. regions are less pronounced, but reasons for hope remain.
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Jan 05, 2022
Minutes suggest earlier rate hikes and aggressive balance sheet runoff.
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Jan 05, 2022
The economic costs are mounting, and our assumption that each passing wave of COVID-19 will be less costly could be optimistic.
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Jan 05, 2022
It won't be the employment data or CPI, but the Q4 ECI will not sit well with the central bank.
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Jan 05, 2022
We now have fourth-quarter growth on track to rise 6.8% at an annualized rate.
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Jan 05, 2022
Surging U.S. cases are going to keep people from working and delay re-entry into the labor force.
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Jan 05, 2022
Bond market not overly concerned that Omicron will have significant economic costs.
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Jan 05, 2022
Despite it all, the U.S. economy's ability to overcome the pandemic has been admirable.
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Jan 04, 2022
Omicron is spreading rapidly across the U.S. and it's going to take a big bite out of growth.
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Jan 04, 2022
China's so-called zero-tolerance policy regarding COVID-19 clouds the outlook for supply chains and prices.
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Jan 04, 2022
Excess savings are unlikely to be reduced meaningfully until more of the pent-up demand for consumer services is unleashed.
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Jan 04, 2022
Virus risks still cloud the outlook, but there is room for optimism in the new year.
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Jan 04, 2022
Regional Fed presidents may not sway the path of policy, but they can move markets.
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Jan 03, 2022
We're a bit more optimistic than the consensus on U.S. growth, but not by much.
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Dec 31, 2021
Our Europe office will reopen Monday, January 3; Americas and Australia offices will reopen Tuesday, January 4.
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Dec 30, 2021
U.S. state and local current receipts have surpassed current expenditures in their longest streak since the 1970s.
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Dec 29, 2021
The cartel could decide it is better served pumping less oil so that it can fetch higher prices.
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Dec 28, 2021
The labor market's strength remains an important driver for consumer activity as we take stock of late-2021 economic data.
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Dec 28, 2021
All jobs lost during the pandemic will be recovered by the second half of 2022.
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Dec 27, 2021
The U.S. dollar's value and status as the world's leading reserve currency remain strong.
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Dec 27, 2021
Performance is the biggest worry for 2022.
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Dec 23, 2021
We will return on Monday, December 27.
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Dec 23, 2021
Inflation relief is coming while real consumer spending didn't budge in November.
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Dec 23, 2021
The Mountain West leads the way and the South makes strides, but the broader story is mixed.
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Dec 22, 2021
Confidence increased in December, but as cases continue to rise, it could be tested in January.
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Dec 22, 2021
State-level details reveal where new-home sales have contributed to moderating price gains.
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Dec 22, 2021
The Fed's patience is thin and there are hints rate hikes will start soon after tapering ends.
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Dec 21, 2021
If lawmakers don't pass the legislation, it would shave 0.75 of a percentage point off of growth.
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Dec 21, 2021
Despite the holiday, this is a jam-packed week.
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Dec 21, 2021
The new variant is responsible for more than 70% of new infections.
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Dec 21, 2021
We were mostly correct on the economy's performance but inflation and politics deviated.
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Dec 21, 2021
Odds are high and rising that the Build Back Better bill will not become law.
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Dec 21, 2021
Optimism surrounds supply chains but there is plenty of downside risk.
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Dec 20, 2021
The uncertainty around our fiscal policy assumptions just increased significantly.
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Dec 20, 2021
It will likely let its balance sheet naturally decline shortly after the first rate hike.
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Dec 20, 2021
Federal windfalls boost bottom lines, but hiring shortfalls spell trouble.
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Dec 17, 2021
Another COVID-19 wave is underway in the U.S. and states are tightening restrictions.
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Dec 17, 2021
Rising prices are hurting consumers and goods producers, but are showing signs of slowing.
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Dec 17, 2021
The U.S. is also pressuring American corporations on their Winter Game sponsorship.
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Dec 17, 2021
If things don't change, it will end well below where the Fed expects it to.
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Dec 17, 2021
The bill will be passed in late December.
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Dec 16, 2021
Housing starts enjoyed their strongest one-month increase since March.
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