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Nov 24, 2022
Our U.S. offices are closed for the holiday; we will return Monday, November 28.
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Nov 23, 2022
U.S. economic data come in mixed to end the holiday-shortened week.
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Nov 23, 2022
The U.S. economic calendar will pick up significantly next week.
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Nov 22, 2022
The Philly Fed's Nonmanufacturing Survey points to a contraction in activity for November.
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Nov 22, 2022
Weak productivity growth is raising concerns, since productivity growth along with a growing labor force can help stem inflation pressures.
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Nov 22, 2022
Millions of missing workers will hold up the labor supply recovery, which could indirectly mute the impact of monetary policy.
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Nov 22, 2022
A barrage of indicators suggested the economy is softening as chances of a Fed misstep worsen.
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Nov 22, 2022
The negative effects of the central bank's policy actions on the broader economy will likely become more evident in the first half of 2023.
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Nov 21, 2022
The threat of a rail strike is back, but Congress can intervene after the Thanksgiving break.
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Nov 21, 2022
Most leading economic indicators point to a coming recession, but while recession risks are uncomfortably high and the economy will have a tough 2023, our baseline outlook remains recession free as inflation moderates, consumers do their part, and businesses remain reluctant to lay off workers.
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Nov 21, 2022
Fundamental changes in global energy markets will keep per-barrel prices unusually high, giving firms confidence to pick up the pace of capital expenditures.
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Nov 18, 2022
We dive into Montreal's runaway house prices since the pandemic.
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Nov 18, 2022
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index is sending an ominous message on the risk of recession.
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Nov 18, 2022
We expect new-home sales to have fallen in October, wiping out nearly all of August's sharp increase.
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Nov 18, 2022
The summit also condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Nov 17, 2022
Jobless claims fell, while multifamily activity is holding its own.
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Nov 17, 2022
The headlines about job cuts in tech are eye-grabbing, but the impact on jobless claims will underwhelm.
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Nov 17, 2022
U.S. residential construction showcase a bifurcation between sluggish single-family and growing multifamily activity.
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Nov 16, 2022
October data boosted our high-frequency GDP estimate for the fourth quarter.
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Nov 16, 2022
Incoming data this week have raised our estimate.
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Nov 16, 2022
October gains were concentrated in spending segments such as gasoline stations, restaurants, grocery stores and vehicle dealers.
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Nov 16, 2022
A reversal (and then some) from the latest increase in the index is due in the coming months.
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Nov 16, 2022
U.S. households are raiding the piggy bank to keep spending; it is uncertain how long they can keep that going.
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Nov 15, 2022
The U.S. producer price index sends a similar message as the consumer price index.
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Nov 15, 2022
October's CPI moderation brought sighs of relief, but they were more muted in the West and Northeast.
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Nov 15, 2022
The U.S. economy can be decarbonized at a modest economic cost provided that the transition begins soon and occurs gradually.
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Nov 14, 2022
Later this week will see the release of important housing and consumer data in the U.S.
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Nov 14, 2022
Midterm election results and the latest numbers on inflation were unexpected, but their implications for policymaking are limited.
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Nov 14, 2022
Will the Fed keep rates higher for longer?
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Nov 11, 2022
A slew of data will arrive next week including PPI, retail sales and the housing market.
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Nov 11, 2022
Despite some reason for optimism on the U.S. inflation front, global data are not so rosy.
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Nov 11, 2022
A more-timely estimate of the economy's current growth rate and direction.
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Nov 11, 2022
Consumer debt is on the rise as household savings fall.
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Nov 11, 2022
Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping plan to meet ahead of the G-20 summit.
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Nov 11, 2022
Used vehicles and health insurance subtracted from the CPI in October, while relief in other CPI components is forthcoming.
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Nov 10, 2022
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% in October, less than we or the consensus anticipated.
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Nov 10, 2022
October's CPI report will not alter the Fed's near-term plans.
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Nov 10, 2022
Worldwide investment-grade corporate bonds see 30% dip.
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Nov 10, 2022
The economic expansion is highly vulnerable to anything that might go wrong.
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Nov 09, 2022
There were notable changes to global oil prices and U.S. house prices.
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Nov 09, 2022
If the U.S. economy enters a recession next year, don't expect a divided government to provide economic support.
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Nov 08, 2022
A Republican House win would mean no further fiscal legislation is passed before 2024.
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Nov 08, 2022
Republicans are poised to sweep both the House and Senate on Election Day.
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Nov 08, 2022
The triple threat of COVID-19, the flu and RSV poses risks to the U.S. labor market.
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Nov 07, 2022
Lending standards for credits card have tightened significantly, though demand remains strong.
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Nov 07, 2022
Our global business survey suggests that recession risks remain uncomfortably high.
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Nov 07, 2022
After another jumbo rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the central bank's chairman set new parameters for the path forward.
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Nov 07, 2022
Progress to date, as measured by greenhouse gas emissions and by pledges and commitments for future action, has been limited.
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Nov 07, 2022
We expect headline CPI to move higher.
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Nov 07, 2022
The unemployment rate rose in October, and that's what the Fed wanted to see.
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Nov 04, 2022
Payrolls increased more than expected, but household employment dropped.
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Nov 04, 2022
The strength of the U.S. labor market will keep the Fed from making dovish turns anytime soon.
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Nov 04, 2022
The incumbent president conceded and urged his supporters to respect the vote.
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Nov 04, 2022
Without energy, Canada's current account deficit will garner more concern.
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Nov 04, 2022
Mountain West costs are now rising most quickly, but the implications for elections remain murky.
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Nov 03, 2022
We look for the economy to have added 175,000 jobs, on net, in October.
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Nov 03, 2022
Labor demand continues to exceed labor supply, or the labor force.
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Nov 03, 2022
Historically, the higher the rental vacancy rate, the slower rental inflation has been.
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Nov 02, 2022
After four consecutive 75-basis point rate hikes, the Fed hints at a slowdown.
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Nov 01, 2022
The ISM manufacturing survey had some favorable details, but the JOLTS did not.
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Nov 01, 2022
The supply-demand imbalance in the U.S. labor market worsened in September, raising the risk of a hard landing for the economy.
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Nov 01, 2022
The Fed will cheer certain aspects of the survey, but the outlook for monetary policy is unchanged.
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Oct 31, 2022
Data released last week point to trouble for important engines of U.S. economic growth.
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Oct 31, 2022
We expect that the Federal Reserve will press on with another 75-basis point rate hike.
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Oct 31, 2022
Regional Fed surveys point to further weakness in core capital-goods shipments.
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Oct 31, 2022
We'll see how tight the labor market is with the JOLTS and unemployment data.
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Oct 31, 2022
At the end of October, the signals of a U.S. downturn are small but rising compared with the previous nine months.
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Oct 31, 2022
U.S. wage growth overall has begun to cool in a trend that could help slow inflation.
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Oct 28, 2022
The Federal Reserve will remain uncomfortable with the pace of wage and price gains in the U.S.
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Oct 28, 2022
How should beliefs frame our understanding of recession?
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Oct 28, 2022
Housing market conditions will continue deteriorate as higher mortgage rates weaken demand.
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Oct 28, 2022
While the outcome was expected, it is unclear how the government will tackle the near-term problems.
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Oct 28, 2022
Prices will continue to fall nearly 10% from their recent peaks by the end of 2025.
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Oct 27, 2022
The increase in third-quarter GDP quashes any fears that the economy is in recession.
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Oct 27, 2022
A third of U.S. households that were newly banked last year opened an account to facilitate receipt of government payments—stimulus checks or unemployment benefits.
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Oct 26, 2022
New-home sales are rapidly slowing as interest rates continue to erode affordability.
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Oct 26, 2022
The relationship between the VIX and high-yield spreads has broken down since the pandemic.
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Oct 26, 2022
The gain in quarterly growth will be misleading.
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Oct 26, 2022
The coming year will be a difficult one for the U.S. economy; just how difficult depends on whether the economy is able to catch a break.
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Oct 26, 2022
No regional economy is truly contracting, but a few post-pandemic patterns are changing.
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Oct 25, 2022
Confidence is holding up and not flashing red about a downturn.
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Oct 25, 2022
While the world economy is still expected to skirt recession, some regions are already entering a downturn.
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Oct 25, 2022
There will be a further shift back toward old patterns, but not all the changes that took place because of the pandemic will reverse.
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Oct 25, 2022
The combination of increased borrowing costs, elevated inflation, and a softening labour market spells the end for the housing boom.
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Oct 25, 2022
Consumers are backing off housing and goods purchases.
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Oct 25, 2022
The period of above-trend job growth driven by the recovery from the pandemic is drawing to a close.
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Oct 24, 2022
Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak is now poised to become the next U.K.'s prime minister.
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Oct 24, 2022
Despite worsening indicators, the loss exposure of U.S. banks is moderate.
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Oct 24, 2022
Our model now estimates quarterly growth at an annualized rate of 2.4%, thanks to trade.
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Oct 24, 2022
We evaluated 14 economic and political variables, and they overwhelmingly point to a Republican takeover of the House.
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Oct 24, 2022
U.S. house prices have declined quickly in many places; are sellers capitulating in a weakening market?
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Oct 21, 2022
U.S. housing feeling the pain of higher rates and it is not over.
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Oct 21, 2022
The effects of the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening cycle are rippling their way through the U.S. economy.
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Oct 21, 2022
This will be the third PM for the country this year.
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Oct 21, 2022
Canadian GDP will continue to weaken, with trade and oil particular letdowns.
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Oct 20, 2022
Political uncertainty will weigh on U.K. financial conditions and its economic outlook.
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Oct 20, 2022
As inflation persists, there's concern that overextended lower-income borrowers may push up delinquency and default rates.
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Oct 17, 2022
Goods disinflation is here but not for services, giving the Fed a headache.
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Oct 17, 2022
But services inflation is sticky and is accelerating.
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Oct 17, 2022
Our baseline forecast is still for the Fed to engineer a soft landing and the economy to skirt a recession.
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