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Sep 29, 2020
This year's $1,794 trillion has already topped 2017's zenith of $1.509 trillion.
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Sep 29, 2020
Net exports will be a drag but inventories will add around 5 percentage points to GDP growth.
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Sep 29, 2020
Historical data imply a recovery to pre-pandemic employment would take two to nine years.
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Sep 29, 2020
Most startup applications in 2020 are from firms unlikely to make hires in the near term.
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Sep 29, 2020
In a light calendar week of economic data, housing indicators shine bright.
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Sep 28, 2020
January-August revealed a 30.8% annual contraction by newly rated loans from high-yield issuers.
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Sep 28, 2020
A bunch of key U.S. economic data and the first presidential debate.
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Sep 28, 2020
The third revision of second-quarter GDP is likely to be uneventful.
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Sep 25, 2020
Core capital goods orders rose for a fourth straight month in August.
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Sep 25, 2020
Core capital goods shipments and orders boost our Q3 GDP tracking estimate.
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Sep 25, 2020
The good news is that there hasn't been a significant weakening, even as the fiscal stimulus has run its course.
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Sep 25, 2020
Permanent job losses are taking the place of temporary layoffs.
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Sep 25, 2020
COVID-19 is making a comeback.
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Sep 25, 2020
The British government announced a much-awaited extension to the furlough scheme.
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Sep 24, 2020
In this low-rate environment, companies opt to lengthen maturities at rock-bottom costs.
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Sep 24, 2020
Low mortgage rates and pent-up demand continue to push sales higher.
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Sep 24, 2020
Recent growth in U.S. used-vehicle prices and new vehicle sales is likely to slow in the coming months.
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Sep 24, 2020
Rural economies will suffer most if Congress fails to support state and local governments.
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Sep 24, 2020
U.S. regional labor market data for August showed progress but a long road back to normalcy.
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Sep 24, 2020
U.S. regional labor market data for August showed progress but a long road back to normalcy.
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Sep 24, 2020
The U.S. presidential candidates could not have more different governing approaches and policies, especially when it comes to economic policy.
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Sep 23, 2020
The passage of a fiscal stimulus package may require the spur of another 7% drop.
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Sep 23, 2020
The economic calendar heats up on Thursday.
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Sep 23, 2020
The country will not return to its pre-COVID-19 employment level until the end of 2023.
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Sep 22, 2020
The Richmond district has risen to 19.7 points after a bottom of -65.6 points in April.
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Sep 22, 2020
Sharp decline in lumber prices will ease cost pressures homebuilders were grappling with.
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Sep 22, 2020
With each passing week the potential for another, but much needed, U.S. fiscal stimulus has dimmed.
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Sep 22, 2020
Stock market values should gradually decline in the near term, followed by a gradual recovery.
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Sep 22, 2020
In the not too distant future, a reduction in the outstandings of corporate debt is likely.
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Sep 21, 2020
Odds of fiscal stimulus ahead of the election are fading.
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Sep 21, 2020
Data released last week offer no clear evidence that the economy's recovery accelerated.
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Sep 21, 2020
We expect another gain in existing-home sales.
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Sep 21, 2020
The economic outlook has marginally improved.
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Sep 18, 2020
The current cash assets of businesses and households exceed what they will hold long term.
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Sep 18, 2020
The Fed is deemphasizing the unemployment rate gap, but maybe it should turn to prime EPOP.
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Sep 18, 2020
The labor market continues to heal from the crisis.
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Sep 18, 2020
The industry is making a recovery after being rocked by the pandemic.
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Sep 18, 2020
Policymakers should focus on the prime-age employment to population ratio, not unemployment.
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Sep 18, 2020
U.K. prime minister took a few steps back, but the lines he has drawn will be quickly crossed.
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Sep 18, 2020
The two central banks will use less direct measures to support economies.
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Sep 18, 2020
Regional labor markets are exhibiting fatigue, but restaurants show signs of life.
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Sep 18, 2020
We review changes to our economic scenarios that could impact loss allowance estimates for Q3.
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Sep 17, 2020
Credit quality has stabilized as debt has moved to lower interest rates and longer maturities.
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Sep 17, 2020
With people exhausting their benefits, continuing claims dropped sharply last week.
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Sep 17, 2020
The risks remain very high.
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Sep 16, 2020
China's V-shape rebound sets itself apart, but downside risks predominate.
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Sep 16, 2020
The Fed was accommodative then despite Q3 and Q4 GDP increases of 5.1% and 6.6%.
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Sep 16, 2020
There are still some details to be ironed out but the guidance didn't rattle markets.
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Sep 16, 2020
Restaurant spending helped the numbers in August.
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Sep 16, 2020
Prices increased across a wide range of product categories in September.
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Sep 16, 2020
Poverty fell as median household income jumped; health coverage expanded.
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Sep 15, 2020
The high-tech component of manufacturing advanced by 1.1% monthly in August to a record high.
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Sep 15, 2020
Industrial production and import prices nudge our tracking estimate higher but retail sales could disappoint.
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Sep 15, 2020
The 2020 fire season will rank as one of the most destructive in recorded history.
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Sep 15, 2020
After industrial production and import prices, our model puts U.S. GDP at 26.4% annualized in the current quarter.
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Sep 15, 2020
The recovery has slowed as federal stimulus has waned and COVID-19 cases remain high.
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Sep 15, 2020
Moody's Analytics predicts Biden will narrowly win the Electoral College.
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Sep 14, 2020
Loan standards are tighter than they've been since the end of 2008.
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Sep 14, 2020
This week is packed with a Fed meeting, Congress returning to session, and the release of key data.
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Sep 14, 2020
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits likely increased in the week ended September 12.
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Sep 14, 2020
The economy is operating 20% below where it was prior to when the pandemic struck in March.
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Sep 14, 2020
New forward guidance is unlikely this week; the Fed will wait until November.
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Sep 14, 2020
We answer additional questions submitted in response to our recent webinar.
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Sep 11, 2020
After three straight increases in core CPI, deflation seems less of a threat than in the spring.
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Sep 11, 2020
Looking at how Canadians are moving around the country can provide insights on the recovery.
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Sep 11, 2020
Initial and continuing claims in regular programs have improved; the bigger picture is not so rosy.
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Sep 11, 2020
The week's events will hinder future negotiations.
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Sep 11, 2020
Fiscal and monetary support is key to avoiding a retrenchment.
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Sep 10, 2020
The issuance of US$-denominated corporate bonds has flourished throughout much of 2020.
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Sep 10, 2020
Stronger GDP growth and a lower unemployment rate, but we are still counting on more stimulus.
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Sep 10, 2020
Google Mobility, Homebase and U.S. jobless claims help meet the need for timely regional data.
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Sep 10, 2020
The Consumer Expenditure Survey shows health in income growth and mostly conservative spending.
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Sep 09, 2020
The market value of U.S. common stock partly recovered with a 2.01% increase.
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Sep 09, 2020
U.S. job openings jumped in July to the highest level since February.
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Sep 08, 2020
The market value of U.S. common stock fell 7.1%.
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Sep 08, 2020
U.S. small business conditions point to weak investment and wage growth.
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Sep 08, 2020
Employment data are improving, but the recovery is stalled amid COVID-19 infections.
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Sep 08, 2020
We continue to expect employment to be down by about 10 million jobs from its pre-pandemic peak at year's end.
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Sep 04, 2020
Failure to pass stimulus now is a policy error.
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Sep 04, 2020
Employment insurance is changing, and three programs are being introduced.
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Sep 04, 2020
The U.S. unemployment rate fell more than expected to 8.4%.
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Sep 04, 2020
EU states agreed to impose sanctions if Ankara refuses to withdraw from the Eastern Mediterranean.
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Sep 04, 2020
France will add €100 billion to its budget in the next two years.
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Sep 03, 2020
The market value of U.S. common stock plummeted by 3.56%, or $1.3 trillion.
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Sep 03, 2020
We look for a 1.1 million increase in nonfarm employment and a 9.9% unemployment rate.
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Sep 03, 2020
A disappointment could light a fire under lawmakers in Washington to pass stimulus.
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Sep 03, 2020
COVID-19 invades campuses, and risks rise for university-dependent economies.
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Sep 03, 2020
A brutal second quarter gives way to an initially strong rebound, but the momentum quickly fades.
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Sep 03, 2020
In part, corporate credit reflects some equity market subindexes remaining well under record highs.
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Sep 02, 2020
The ADP National Employment Report points toward weak August hiring.
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Sep 02, 2020
The decline in inventories is larger than previously thought.
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Sep 01, 2020
Permanent layoffs in virus-sensitive industries have rapidly increased.
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Sep 01, 2020
The Moody's Analytics industrial metals price index rose for a fourth consecutive month.
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Sep 01, 2020
U.S. manufacturing continues to recover from the recession, and the improvement is broadening.
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Sep 01, 2020
The COVID-19 crisis will do lasting damage to the U.S. labor market.
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Aug 31, 2020
After the seven years of a low rate following 2009, the default rate dropped from 14.7% to 1.6%.
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Aug 31, 2020
Slew of key U.S. economic data will be released and could provide color on recession risks.
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Aug 31, 2020
The economic recovery hinges on the prevalence of the virus and the next fiscal stimulus package.
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Aug 31, 2020
The ADP National Employment Report will help to gauge private employment.
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Aug 31, 2020
Our high-frequency GDP model now has third-quarter GDP tracking 29.2% at an annualized rate.
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