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Aug 03, 2021
Asian economies are struggling against the spread of the COVID-19 variant.
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Aug 03, 2021
The economy is booming, but supply-side constraints continue to put pressure on prices.
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Aug 02, 2021
The strongest growth this cycle could be behind us, but the outlook remains bright.
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Aug 02, 2021
What is the latest on inflation, and when will business travel begin to ramp up?
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Aug 02, 2021
We estimate that if Congress does not act, the Treasury will hit the debt limit on November 18.
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Jul 30, 2021
The core PCE deflator rose 0.5% in June, leaving it up 3.5% on a year-ago basis.
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Jul 30, 2021
Though wage growth is strong, it's likely it will not set a wage-price spiral into motion.
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Jul 30, 2021
Though wage growth is strong, it's likely it will not set a wage-price spiral into motion.
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Jul 30, 2021
The Fed will likely announce its plans in September.
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Jul 30, 2021
Supply-chain bottlenecks and wage pressures give inflation some persistence.
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Jul 29, 2021
Inventories were a big drag in Q2 but will add to growth later.
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Jul 29, 2021
The gap between daytime and full-time population portends modest trouble for some big U.S. cities.
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Jul 28, 2021
The Fed is taking actions to make sure the tapering doesn't catch anyone off guard.
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Jul 28, 2021
The Fed's statement was interpreted differently by the bond market.
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Jul 28, 2021
But the Continent still faces some vaccine hesitancy.
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Jul 28, 2021
We now look for a 7.6% annualized gain, but watch the annual revisions.
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Jul 27, 2021
Durable goods were a letdown, but consumer confidence unexpectedly increased.
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Jul 27, 2021
Relationship between spending and confidence is loose in the short run.
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Jul 27, 2021
There were bits of good news for future residential construction in last week's housing data.
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Jul 27, 2021
The Delta variant should not have enormous economic costs, thanks to vaccinations.
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Jul 27, 2021
Why the shortage won't be equal across industries and sectors.
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Jul 26, 2021
U.S. new-home sales fell unexpectedly in June to their lowest since early last year.
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Jul 26, 2021
Tapering for the Fed will remain "a ways off."
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Jul 26, 2021
The U.S. economy may be poised to begin a period of accelerated productivity growth.
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Jul 26, 2021
The first hint of tapering is still a couple of meetings off.
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Jul 26, 2021
Delta-variant fears seem to have receded, but remain a risk to the economy.
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Jul 23, 2021
Labor Force Survey population estimates reveal disruptions to internal migration.
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Jul 23, 2021
Delta variant is a downside risk to the U.S. forecast, but there are few signs it's hurting.
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Jul 23, 2021
Without the aid, GDP would be about 7.5% smaller in the second and third quarters.
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Jul 22, 2021
Increase in initial claims is no cause for concern and not tied to the COVID-19 Delta variant.
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Jul 22, 2021
Stellar vaccination rates bolster the outlook for the months ahead.
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Jul 22, 2021
M&A was cited frequently as the use of proceeds from bond issuance in Q2.
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Jul 22, 2021
The demise of international and business travel has hit some U.S. metro areas harder than others.
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Jul 21, 2021
Economic gravity has caught up to the market.
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Jul 21, 2021
Washington DC weighs Biden's Build Back Better agenda and Fed Chairman Powell's renomination.
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Jul 21, 2021
The steepest increases in cases are in states where vaccination rates are the lowest.
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Jul 21, 2021
Positive momentum can't last forever.
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Jul 21, 2021
Greater investments in U.S. public infrastructure and social programs will lift productivity and labor force growth.
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Jul 20, 2021
Additional new-home supply in the U.S. is coming, although the timing is unclear.
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Jul 20, 2021
Based on the U.K. experience so far, the drag on the U.S. economy should be modest.
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Jul 20, 2021
The rapid spread of the Delta variant is causing jitters in markets and prompting renewed restrictions.
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Jul 20, 2021
Constraints to labor market participation should fall away with the reopening of schools in the fall and an increase in vaccinations.
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Jul 20, 2021
Gasoline prices were last this high in 2014.
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Jul 19, 2021
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield could drop to 1% before it bottoms.
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Jul 19, 2021
The economic recovery is on solid ground, but the variant represents a growing downside risk.
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Jul 19, 2021
Rising volatility in the equity market signals that corporate bond spreads could widen.
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Jul 19, 2021
The acceleration in U.S. consumer prices isn't over.
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Jul 19, 2021
Mortgage balance growth has been strongest in the South, mirroring unemployment rate data showing the region's job market has been stronger than the nation's overall.
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Jul 19, 2021
Does the performance of China's economy's presage what's coming for the U.S.?
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Jul 16, 2021
Consumers keep doing their part.
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Jul 16, 2021
Supply chain issues and so-so aggregate demand growth have been a headwind to manufacturing.
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Jul 16, 2021
Momentum has helped to support the bull market.
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Jul 16, 2021
The BoJ decided to keep its policy steady.
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Jul 15, 2021
Many key economic data for the U.S. and China were released on Thursday.
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Jul 15, 2021
Global economic data have come in weaker than expected, but don't be gloomy on the outlook.
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Jul 15, 2021
Numerous real-time sources show practically no benefit from ending additional $300 per week so far.
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Jul 14, 2021
He isn't ready to taper yet but some inflation jitters creep into his comments.
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Jul 14, 2021
The ECB will be more involved in the rapidly growing ESG-linked bond market.
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Jul 14, 2021
The reopening of the economy and new- and-used-vehicle prices were responsible for 55.6% of the increase in the headline CPI in June.
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Jul 14, 2021
Despite an eye-catching 0.9% increase, temporary factors kept driving CPI higher in June.
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Jul 14, 2021
The money is mostly held by older, higher-income households; will they spend it?
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Jul 13, 2021
The June CPI details strengthen the narrative that temporary factors are juicing inflation.
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Jul 13, 2021
Infections are ramping up across Europe.
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Jul 13, 2021
The bulk of the increase was once again in used cars and reopening segments.
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Jul 12, 2021
We look for the CPI to have risen 0.7% in June, stronger than the consensus.
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Jul 12, 2021
While there are signs the recovery has passed its peak growth period, the Fed is in no rush to begin tapering its monthly asset purchases.
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Jul 12, 2021
Treasury has to cut its cash balance at the Fed by $300 billion by the end of this month.
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Jul 12, 2021
Our GDP forecast for this year saw a small downward revision, the first in a while.
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Jul 12, 2021
A well functioning payment system that removes friction for people doing commerce enables economic growth.
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Jul 12, 2021
Ongoing lockdowns are illustrative of the difficulties emerging from the pandemic and getting economies on a sustained recovery path.
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Jul 11, 2021
Interest rates are tied to the economy's long-term growth—and they are headed higher.
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Jul 09, 2021
China's CPI was up 1.1% on a year-ago basis in June and will move lower over the next few months.
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Jul 09, 2021
In April—the most recent month of data—manufacturing sales in the auto industry plummeted a drastic 37% compared with March.
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Jul 09, 2021
Our forecast is down slightly from a total of $1.5 billion to $1.4 billion.
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Jul 08, 2021
Don't read too much into claims while concerns about the Delta variant are weighing on yields.
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Jul 08, 2021
Spreads will remain tight in the second half of this year, but will widen in 2022.
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Jul 08, 2021
There was a small downward revision to our GDP forecast for this year, the first in a while.
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Jul 08, 2021
More Americans are living in multigenerational homes either by choice or necessity.
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Jul 08, 2021
U.S. regional and local infection rates and economic data depend much on the uptake of vaccinations.
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Jul 07, 2021
Fed still on track to taper early next year and it's betting on inflation being transitory.
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Jul 07, 2021
The Treasury has drawn down its General Account faster than expected.
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Jul 07, 2021
The 'Phuket sandbox' could become a model for other vacation hotspots in Asia.
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Jul 06, 2021
There are more signs that the U.S. economy's peaking is pushing long-term rates lower.
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Jul 06, 2021
June's jobs report impressed...mostly.
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Jul 06, 2021
Can't keep pace with 2020, but still on track for a potent year.
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Jul 06, 2021
A stronger-than-expected jobs report capped off last week's packed release calendar.
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Jul 02, 2021
The workweek fell, long-term unemployed rose, and the participation rate didn't change.
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Jul 02, 2021
Our U.S. offices will be closed Monday, July 5 in observance.
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Jul 02, 2021
The net gain of 850,000 was higher than our above-consensus forecast of 750,000 and marks the biggest monthly gain since August.
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Jul 02, 2021
Airlines have held onto their staff, expecting a rebound.
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Jul 02, 2021
Labor force participation remains lower than before the pandemic.
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Jul 02, 2021
For each detail in the employment report that was encouraging, we can find one that wasn't.
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Jul 01, 2021
Strongest growth this cycle could be behind us, but growth will remain very strong.
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Jul 01, 2021
Bond market has digested the reports well this year, but that could change going forward.
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Jul 01, 2021
We look for a 750,000 net gain and a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.6%.
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Jun 30, 2021
ADP report shows solid gain in U.S. employment while pending home sales unexpectedly jumped.
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Jun 30, 2021
The Conference Board index is unique in approaching pre-pandemic levels.
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Jun 30, 2021
With lots of churn in the job market, first prints of employment could be less reliable.
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Jun 29, 2021
Consumers' assessment of the labor market is the highest it's been since 2000.
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Jun 29, 2021
Economic stress from price pressures remains localized.
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