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Jun 26, 2019

Economic Roundup: Verb! That's What's Happenin'
Some signs of hope, then confusion on trade deal progress. Analysis
Jun 26, 2019

Rating Revisions and EDF Metric Warn of Wider High-Yield Bond Spread
Current business activity deceleration has not approached 2015-2016's profits recession. Analysis
Jun 26, 2019

Cutting Our Tracking Estimate for Q2 GDP
U.S. growth is now reading 1.8% at an annualized rate; inventories are a key culprit. Analysis
Jun 26, 2019

Do U.S. Primary Election Debates Matter?
They do, especially when the debate stage is crowded. Analysis
Jun 26, 2019

U.S. Retail Revisions Deepen the Puzzle
Revisions are minor in aggregate, but recent volatility is more extreme than prior data showed. Analysis
Jun 25, 2019

Ten-Year Treasury Yield Closes Under 2% for First Time Since Election Day 2016
Lower interest rates need to rejuvenate business activity if M&A is to appreciably grow again. Analysis
Jun 25, 2019

U.S. Employment Outlook: Not if, but When
A downturn is coming, but the timing is uncertain. Analysis
Jun 25, 2019

U.S. New-Home Sales Dropped in May, but Trend Has Improved
New-home sales didn't alter our estimate of Q2 GDP, but revisions to retail sales did. Analysis
Jun 25, 2019

U.S. Consumers Feel Better Than Businesses
Sentiment is most important around inflection points in the economy. Analysis
Jun 25, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Not Feeling So Hot
Sentiment numbers are swooning despite the still-strong economy. Analysis
Jun 24, 2019

Evidence Favors Lower Benchmark Interest Rates and Wider High-Yield Spreads
A three-month Treasury bill rate of 2.13% has already priced in a federal funds rate of 2.125% by the end of July. Analysis
Jun 24, 2019

Economic Roundup: Global Business Sentiment Turns Grim
Confidence is consistent with a global economy that is stalling. Analysis
Jun 24, 2019

A Look Back at the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
The U.S. economy has deviated little from the playbook since the 2017 tax law. Analysis
Jun 21, 2019

Greater China Leads the World in Outstanding Nonfinancial Corporate Debt
The country accounted for 72.5% of the emerging markets' outstanding nonfinancial corporate debt. Analysis
Jun 21, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fed Is Losing the Game Theory Battle With Trump
With the central bank almost committed to a rate cut, the end of the trade issues would boost equity markets. Analysis
Jun 21, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 21, 2019
We expect a deal between the U.S. and China at the G-20 meeting, or at a minimum a truce. Analysis
Jun 21, 2019

Canada Weekly: Yield Curve Flashes Recession Warning
The estimated odds of a recession in Canada are reaching concerning levels. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

Lower Corporate Bond Yields Boost Credit Quality Via Refinancings
However, if companies substantially increase their debt, credit will suffer. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

Economic Roundup: Upping the Odds of a Fed Cut in July
Fed not alone, as RBA could eye another cut. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

Where Will the Fed Go From Here?
It will take a lot to prevent a cut in July, but nothing is certain. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

Powell Not Convinced U.S. Has Reached Full Employment
This is dovish for the path of interest rates and could lead to a cut. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

U.S. Regional Outlook: The Rise of Midsize Metro Areas
Costs drive movement to cheaper areas—to a degree. Analysis
Jun 20, 2019

Ten-Year Treasury Yield May Soon Close Under 2% for First Time Since Trump's Election
The implied probability of fed funds' midpoint staying at 2.375% sank to 0% after the FOMC meeting. Analysis
Jun 19, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fed Almost Waved the White Flag
Bar is much lower for a cut this year and it could come in July. Analysis
Jun 19, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: Losing Faith
Recession fears have suddenly come to the fore. Analysis
Jun 19, 2019

U.S. Treasury Yields Tower Over Yields of Other Advanced Economies
The implied probability of fed funds finishing 2019 above their current 2.375% midpoint is 0%. Analysis
Jun 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: Super Mario Reboot
ECB's Mario Draghi turns more dovish while Trump has considered demoting Powell. Analysis
Jun 18, 2019

Draghi Turns More Dovish
The European Central Bank president signals the bank is ready to act, if needed. Analysis
Jun 18, 2019

The Power of the Trump Put
The put has helped the market in the past but could pack less of a punch down the road. Analysis
Jun 17, 2019

Year-Long U.S.-China Trade War Pushed Down 10-Year Treasury
Since June 14, 2018, the yield has dropped from 2.94% to a recent 2.09%. Analysis
Jun 17, 2019

Economic Roundup: Sending the Right Message
The FOMC will likely leave interest rates unchanged this week, but Powell's statements will be telling. Analysis
Jun 17, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Searching for the Warning Signs
No glaring potential macroeconomic imbalances are forming yet. Analysis
Jun 17, 2019

FOMC Preview: There's a Lot Going On
Chairman Powell will need to thread a needle. Analysis
Jun 14, 2019

Median and Average High-Yield EDFs Differ on Spreads and Default Rates
Although the average of both predicted midpoints warn of a wider high-yield bond spread. Analysis
Jun 14, 2019

Economic Roundup: Good News for the Economy, Bad News for Trade Talks
May data reports for the U.S. and China were positive, but that may complicate negotiations. Analysis
Jun 14, 2019

Q2 U.S. GDP Looks Better, for Now
The economy was gathering momentum before the trade tensions escalated. Analysis
Jun 14, 2019

Canada Weekly: Oil Exports Drag Down GDP
A drop in exports held back stronger GDP growth in the first quarter. Analysis
Jun 13, 2019

Downwardly Revised Earnings Forecasts Help to Lower Interest Rates
The 10-year Treasury yield will probably average something less than 2.5% through the end of 2020. Analysis
Jun 13, 2019

Economic Roundup: Initial Claims Flatten
Claims may be signaling that worker confidence has peaked and job growth is slowing. Analysis
Jun 13, 2019

Puerto Rico Since the Hurricane
Federal relief can matter a lot in disaster-stricken regional economies. Analysis
Jun 12, 2019

Lower Interest Rates Aim to End 2019-to-date's Business Slowdown
Year-over-year retail sales growth slowed from 4.8% in 2018 to 3.0% in 2019. Analysis
Jun 12, 2019

Economic Roundup: Bursting at the Seams
Mandatory programs push U.S. deficits higher. Analysis
Jun 12, 2019

U.S. Fiscal Stimulus Shifts to State and Local Spending
Real growth in federal outlays has actually been slowing. Analysis
Jun 11, 2019

Record-High Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP Adds to Downside Risks
First-quarter 2019's corporate debt advanced by 8.1% year over year to $9.913 trillion. Analysis
Jun 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: Producer Prices Soften
Year-over-year PPI growth is decelerating due to falling energy prices. Analysis
Jun 11, 2019

Tariffs Are Not Raising Producer Prices
This may seem surprising considering the trade war between the U.S. and its top trading partners. Analysis
Jun 11, 2019

Global Outlook: Feeling the Weight
Expansion is slowing amid rising downside risks. Analysis
Jun 11, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Feeling Some Jitters
The labor market is in good shape, but manufacturing is on edge. Analysis
Jun 11, 2019

High-Yield, Russell 2000, Value Line Index Fared Worst Since Trade Tensions Intensified Last June
The market value of U.S. common stock edged higher by 2.3% from its close of last June 14. Analysis
Jun 10, 2019

Economic Roundup: Pivot!
Trump's tariff threats pivot from Mexico to China while the Fed mulls a pivot to interest rate cuts. Analysis
Jun 10, 2019

Suspended Mexico Tariffs Shift Focus Back on China
President Trump again threatened levies on nearly $300 billion worth of Chinese goods imports. Analysis
Jun 10, 2019

A Change Is Coming
The June baseline will include no Fed hike in 2020 and a lower 10-year yield forecast. Analysis
Jun 10, 2019

Debt Ceiling Tracker: Back to Square One
The April tax windfall was only a fleeting relief for the Treasury under the debt limit. Analysis
Jun 07, 2019

Economic Roundup: This Looks Bad But Is It?
Job growth was weak in May, but eventually this will be normal. Analysis
Jun 07, 2019

High-Yield Rating Revisions Warn of Wider Spreads and More Defaults
Also, the market now thinks the Fed will cut rates three times in 2019. Analysis
Jun 07, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 7, 2019
Key data ahead include retail sales, industrial production and consumer prices. Analysis
Jun 07, 2019

Canada Weekly: Not in the Clear
Slower growth in the U.S. and elsewhere could exacerbate Canada's problems. Analysis
Jun 07, 2019

When to Worry About the Message From the U.S. Labor Market
If employment falls, chances are good we are in a recession. Analysis
Jun 07, 2019

Now Under Review: The Fed's Policy Framework
Our takeaway from the central bank's conference is that it will adopt average inflation targeting next year. Analysis
Jun 06, 2019

Financial System's Deeper Capitalization Lessens Risk of Another Financial Crisis
The assets of U.S. private depository institutions equal 45% of loans, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds. Analysis
Jun 06, 2019

Economic Roundup: Dovish Draghi
We are adjusting our forecast for the ECB and now don't anticipate a hike this year. Analysis
Jun 06, 2019

Final Thoughts Ahead of May U.S. Employment
The calendar could be a positive, and we look for a 190,000 net gain. Analysis
Jun 05, 2019

Chicago Fed's NAI Now Outperforms Jobless Rate at Capturing the Tone of Business Activity
The weak NAI may help explain why the annual rate of core PCE price index inflation was 1.8% despite a low jobless rate. Analysis
Jun 05, 2019

Economic Roundup: We're Not Calling Trump's Bluff on Tariffs
The president reiterates his tariff threats on Mexico as the U.S. labor market softens. Analysis
Jun 05, 2019

Share Prices of Motor Vehicle and Parts Companies Suddenly Burn Rubber
The Fed's cutting of interest rates in response to the yield curve in 1998 prevented a recession. Analysis
Jun 04, 2019

Economic Roundup: The Fed's Soothing Voice
Markets were happy to hear that the central bank would step in if the economy needs it. Analysis
Jun 04, 2019

As U.S. Expansion Ages, Maybe We Should Sweat the Small Stuff
Small components of GDP account for a large share of volatility in growth. Analysis
Jun 04, 2019

Road to Recession: Paved With Tariffs?
The use of tariffs as a policy lever could cause us to adjust the odds around our trade war scenarios. Analysis
Jun 04, 2019

The Macroeconomic Impact of Senator Elizabeth Warren's Clean Energy Plan
The presidential candidate has a proposal to address climate change and infrastructure. Analysis
Jun 03, 2019

Economic Roundup: Not a Happy Bunch
U.S. bond market is on edge, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield down toward 2%. Analysis
Jun 03, 2019

Tariffs Tracker: Oh the Places You'll Tariff
As the trade wars escalate, threats to the U.S. economy are mounting. Analysis
Jun 03, 2019

Market Now Expects a July Rate Cut
Rate cuts in 1998 helped avoid a recession after a yield-curve inversion. Analysis
Jun 03, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: The Calm Before the Tweetstorm
Last week's data predate the latest rounds of trade war escalation. Analysis
Jun 03, 2019

Canada Outlook: The Inflection Point
Just as growth begins to regain momentum, downside risks intensify. Analysis
May 31, 2019

High-Yield EDF Hints of a 500-Basis Points Spec-Grade Bond Spread
Also, industrial metals price index sunk to its lowest since January 6. Analysis
May 31, 2019

Economic Roundup: Fighting on Two Fronts
A fresh trade war with Mexico could hurt sentiment and boost recession risks. Analysis
May 31, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 31, 2019
Employment data and Fed speeches will dominate the week ahead. Analysis
May 31, 2019

Odds Now Favor a Fed Rate Cut This Year
Trade tensions could do even more damage, and the central bank may have to respond. Analysis
May 31, 2019

Trade War Damage Mounts
What does the move against Mexico mean for the U.S. trade discussions with China? Analysis
May 31, 2019

Trump Rekindles Trade Tensions With Mexico
The potential for this to escalate quickly, boosts recession risks and odds of a Fed cut. Analysis
May 30, 2019

Each Prior Quarter-Long Yield Curve Inversion Was Followed by a Profits Recession
The default rate was higher 12 months after a Treasury yield curve inversion 79% of the time. Analysis
May 30, 2019

Economic Roundup: Transitory to the Test
Fed unlikely to get worked up over the downward revision to Q1 core PCE deflator. Analysis
May 30, 2019

Fed Still Betting on 'Transitory' Factors
Is use of the term an excuse rather than an explanation? Analysis
May 30, 2019

Revisiting the Key U.S. Economic Questions for 2019
Nearly 6 months into the year, we look back at our projections; there have been some surprises. Analysis
May 30, 2019

Cross-Sector: Market Data Highlights Analysis
May 29, 2019

Baa-Grade Corporate Bonds Transcend Equity Market's May Battering
Moody's long-term Baa industrial company bond yield average only slightly dipped. Analysis
May 29, 2019

Economic Roundup: Bond Market Taking Matters Into Its Own Hands
Recent drop in the 10-year Treasury yield is roughly equivalent to a Fed rate cut. Analysis
May 29, 2019

U.S. Housing Outlook: In Search of Balance
Expect national demand to rise slowly but steadily. Analysis
May 28, 2019

The FOMC Has the Power to Quickly Cure an Inverted Yield Curve
The unemployment rate has done little to boost inflation risks, so the Fed can raise rates. Analysis
May 28, 2019

Economic Roundup: Watching the Collective Psyche
U.S. consumers haven't responded to the escalation in the trade tensions, yet. Analysis
May 28, 2019

Early Surveys Miss a Trade Tension Hit to Sentiment
Business confidence will likely sour even further. Analysis
May 28, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Just a Hiccup
The trade war and low housing affordability drove some disappointments. Analysis
May 25, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 24, 2019
We look for a downward revision to first-quarter GDP. Analysis
May 24, 2019

Memorial Day Observance, May 27, 2019
The U.S. offices of will be closed Monday. Analysis
May 24, 2019

Economic Roundup: May Bows Out. Who Comes Next?
The chances of a no-deal Brexit have significantly increased. Analysis
May 24, 2019

Canada Weekly: The Inflation Illusion
Higher interest rates are having a counterintuitive effect on inflation. Analysis
May 23, 2019

Economic Roundup: Can't Shake This Feeling
Markets beginning to feel that the trade tensions won't go away soon. Analysis
May 23, 2019

Ten-Year German Government Bond Yield Drops to -0.12%
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of 2.31% looks incredibly generous in comparison. Analysis
May 23, 2019

U.S. State Budgets Preview
Overall economic conditions are strong, but there are spending challenges in education, healthcare and infrastructure. Analysis
May 22, 2019

Economic Roundup: Federal Reserve Stays the Course
FOMC minutes don't alter our view that rates are on hold for the foreseeable future.

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