NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
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   NEWS: DISMAL.COM: ANALYSIS
Dismal.com: Analysis
Jul 05, 2022

Economic Roundup: Still Not Looking Good
Q2 GDP tracking estimate nudged higher, but financial markets are acting like a recession is here.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jul 05, 2022

Capital Market View: Recession Odds Depend on Whom You Ask
The stock market puts the odds of a recession much higher than the corporate bond market.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jul 05, 2022

Behind the Drop in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index
Sentiment has pulled the measure lower over the past few months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jul 05, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, July 5, 2022
Employment numbers and Fed minutes are in focus this week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jul 05, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 65—Energy, Expectations and Estonia
The key U.S. bond market appears less worried about inflation than do other corners of the economy.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jul 05, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Fear and Loathing in the Economy
We aren't in the midst of a recession, but that won't stop recession fears from looming large.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jul 01, 2022

Happy Fourth of July
Our U.S. offices will reopen Tuesday, July 5.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jul 01, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Turkey Drops NATO Objection
The country will not veto the applications of Finland and Sweden to join the alliance.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jul 01, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. ISM Drops, but No Recession Alarms
The details were mixed as employment and new orders dropped but supplier deliveries improved.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jul 01, 2022

U.S. Consumer Spending Has No Momentum
Real spending is little changed over the last seven months.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jul 01, 2022

Canada Weekly: Lost Summers
New-vehicle sales continue to underperform.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 30, 2022

Economic Roundup: So, You're Tellin' Me There's a Chance
Consumer spending for May puts second-quarter tracking estimate negative.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 30, 2022

U.S. B2B Tracker: Ripple Effects
Clearly captured in the latest update is the economic pain Russia's invasion of Ukraine is generating.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 30, 2022

U.S. GDP Declines Could Go Back to Back
A second quarter in the red would raise fear of a recession, but it doesn't mean we are in one.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 30, 2022

Emerging Market View: Calling Inflation's Peak
By late summer year-on-year price gains will begin to ease, shifting attention to what comes after.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 30, 2022

Capital Market View: Spreads Continue to Widen, Little Life in Issuance
High-yield spreads are among the widest since 2020.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 29, 2022

Economic Roundup: A Penny for Your Thoughts?
Revisions to first-quarter GDP look boring, but it was far from it.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 28, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumers Turning More Pessimistic About Future
The Conference Board consumer sentiment survey dropped in June.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 28, 2022

Capital Market View: Copper Price Drop More Good News Than Bad
Copper prices are not good at predicting U.S. recessions.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 28, 2022

Considering the Economic Consequences of the End of Roe v. Wade
The Supreme Court's decision does not materially change the outlook, but does pose new risks.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 28, 2022

The End of Roe v. Wade and Regional Economies
The Supreme Court's decision does not materially change the outlook, but does pose new risks.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 28, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Pessimism Goes Viral
Data from the real economy and consumer sentiment are diverging in some confounding ways.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 27, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Durable Goods Rose in May, but Trouble Is Ahead
Durable-goods orders and shipments nudge the second-quarter GDP tracking estimate higher.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 27, 2022

U.S. Labor Outlook: Job Train Keeps Rolling
The unemployment rate will eclipse pre-pandemic lows by year's end.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 27, 2022

Capital Market View: Not a Lot, but a Slightly Larger Cushion
U.S. durable-goods inventories nudge second-quarter GDP a little higher.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 27, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 27, 2022
The solid labor market can't fully offset the hit to sentiment from higher food and gasoline prices.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 27, 2022

Not a Lot, but a Slightly Larger Cushion
U.S. durable-goods inventories nudge second-quarter GDP a little higher.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 27, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 64—Negative Sentiment
U.S. consumers feel down, but they're still spending.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 27, 2022

U.S. Credit Outlook: Secured Markets to Slow
First-mortgage lending is downshifting, causing the entire credit market to decelerate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 24, 2022

Economic Roundup: A First for 2022
New-home sales had fallen every month this year until they rose in May.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 24, 2022

Canada Weekly: Riding Out the Inflation Storm
The Bank of Canada needs to be careful about its response to the latest CPI report.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 24, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: EU Grants Ukraine, Macedonia Candidate Status
It's the first step in multiyear process to becoming a full member.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 24, 2022

Capital Market View: Spreads Mixed, Defaults Edge Higher, and Issuance Remains Weak
Issuance is coming in weaker than expected for the first half of the year.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 24, 2022

U.S. Consumer Borrowing Moves Toward Pre-Pandemic Patterns
The shift will push up debt burdens.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 23, 2022

Economic Roundup: UI Claims Yet to Signal Distress
Weekly claims will be a key to watch as the Federal Reserve attempts a soft landing.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 23, 2022

U.S. Regional Winners Extend Their Lead
May was a strong month for much of the nation, but employment growth stalled in smaller states.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 22, 2022

Economic Roundup: Not the Holiday We Need
Savings over the three-month tax holiday would amount to less than $30 for the average driver.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 22, 2022

No Good Options for Biden Administration to Reduce Pump Prices
A gas tax holiday, even if it were to pass Congress, would provide little relief for consumers.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 22, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Breaking Inflation
High oil prices, the downturn in asset markets, soaring real estate prices, and persisting inflation are weighing on the psyche of consumers.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 22, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 22, 2022
To squelch inflation, the Fed will take its chances with recession.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 21, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Housing Market Returning to Earth
Rising mortgage rates are behind the drop in sales.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2022

Happy Juneteenth
Our U.S. offices will be close Monday, June 20, for the federal holiday observance.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2022

Economic Roundup: Another Day, Another Decline in Q2 U.S. GDP Tracking Estimate
Industrial production rose less than anticipated in May, putting GDP tracking at 0.6% SAAR.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2022

Canada Weekly: Trade Displacing
Trade bottlenecks have been a dominant force driving inflation pressures.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2022

Capital Market View: Lost That Lovin' Feeling
Some measures of U.S. consumer and business confidence suggest doom and gloom.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2022

U.S. Risk Matrix: A Shift
Rising interest rates at home and in Europe may prove more problematic than previously expected.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Colombia Presidential Endgame
The country heads to the polls on Sunday to vote for a new president.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 17, 2022

Global Outlook: The Big Challenge
Inflation tops the list for policymakers worldwide.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 16, 2022

Economic Roundup: Higher Rates Cooling U.S. Housing
Housing starts dropped in May and lowered our tracking estimate of second-quarter GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 16, 2022

U.S. Q2 GDP Tracking Is Getting Closer to Being Negative
Housing starts cut second-quarter GDP to 0.7% at an annualized rate.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 16, 2022

U.S. Retail Inventories Are High
Discounts on excess goods could slow inflation, at least in some segments.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 16, 2022

Recession Chatter, Risks and the U.S. Baseline Forecast
Odds of a downturn have grown but remain well below the threshold needed to change our outlook.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 16, 2022

Capital Market View: Preview of How We're Changing Our Fed Call
The Fed is determined to tame inflation and that means a more aggressive tightening cycle.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 15, 2022

Economic Roundup: I'm From the Fed and I'm Here to Help
Fed hikes rates by the most since 1994 and it's just getting started.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 15, 2022

COVID-19 Trackers: Turning the Page
We continue to monitor developments closely as we adjust our coverage of the pandemic.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 15, 2022

Capital Market View: Second-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Keeps Heading South
Don't rule out a second consecutive decline in GDP.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 15, 2022

Labor Markets and Household Budgets: A Wide Gulf
U.S. confidence measures diverge.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 14, 2022

Economic Roundup: Fed Has Nowhere to Hide
PPI keeps pressure on the Fed, so it will likely hike rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 14, 2022

Capital Market View: When the Facts Change, So Does the Forecast
Reading the tea leaves strongly suggests the Fed wants to hike more than we thought.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 14, 2022

Gap in U.S. Headline, Core Inflation Bodes Ill for Less Educated
The differences in headline and core inflation affect less-educated household finances more.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 13, 2022

Economic Roundup: Watching Business Confidence
Recessions are, in the end, a loss of faith.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 13, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Scorching Inflation and Souring Sentiment
Growth in consumer prices accelerated in May, which won't sit well with the Fed or consumers.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 13, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 13, 2022
The Fed will likely send a hawkish signal at its FOMC meeting this week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 13, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 62—Lousy Inflation and Life Lessons
We take a look at what's really driving inflation.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 13, 2022

Capital Market View: Fed Will Use Statement, Dot Plot to Send Strong Hawkish Signal
The Fed will likely hike rates by 50 basis points, but be more hawkish in its statement.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 13, 2022

Acceleration in U.S. Inflation Not Uniform
Concentration shows supply constraints still matter and relief may be coming.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 10, 2022

Economic Roundup: The Guest That Won't Leave
The jump in energy prices is one reason U.S. inflation keeps hanging around.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 10, 2022

U.S. CPI by Demographics: May Update
Higher vehicle, energy and rental prices continue to pressure some population groups more than others.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 10, 2022

What's Behind the Drop in U.S. Sentiment? Does It Matter?
Consumers are not happy with higher prices, particularly at the pump.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 10, 2022

Canada Weekly: Construction Slowdown
The housing market is cooling but demand remains robust, while supply-chain constraints are a headwind.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 10, 2022

Capital Market View: May CPI Puts Third Large Hike on Table
Markets are pricing in three more 50-basis point hikes as inflation remains red hot.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 10, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Cracks in U.K. Conservative Party
Prime Minister Johnson survived a no-confidence vote, but 40% of his party want him out.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 09, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Initial Claims Jump; ECB Hawks Fly
It is too early to worry about initial claims, as they are volatile around holidays.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 09, 2022

Capital Market View: Spreads Tighten, Issuance Picks Up
High-yield issuance was ice cold, but there was an improvement last week.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 09, 2022

What if Gasoline in the U.S. Goes to $6? $7?
To assess the economic costs, we ran two scenarios through our macroeconomic model.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 08, 2022

Economic Roundup: Biden Discussing Restructuring Tariffs
Tariffs usually make more political sense than economic sense and might not be a game changer.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 08, 2022

Young Workers Diverge in Return to the Labor Market
U.S. teens have been drawn back to work thanks to rising wages and increased flexibility.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 08, 2022

Capital Market View: Another Month, Another Hot U.S. CPI
The May print could rekindle talk of a 75-basis point hike by the Fed, but it is still unlikely.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 08, 2022

Canada Outlook: Invasion, Infections and Idling
Boosting the economy's supply side is key to avoiding a recession.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 07, 2022

Economic Roundup: Inside the June U.S. Baseline Forecast
There were some revisions to the forecast, but most were fairly modest.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 07, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: The Sweet Spot
The labor market is slowing, but not enough to warrant chatter about an imminent recession.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 06, 2022

Economic Roundup: Subdued Start to Slow Week
Global business confidence improved a little last week but they're still glum.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 06, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 6, 2022
May's decline in retail employment is a bit puzzling.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 06, 2022

Capital Market View: Greenwashing
Green bond issuance jumped in May, supported by larger, rather than more, deals.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 06, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 61—Return to Work and Recession Odds
As the economy moves away from goods and toward services, underlying growth continues but may be vulnerable.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 03, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Is Too Hot to Handle
Job growth is moderating but remains very strong, keeping pressure on the Fed.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 03, 2022

Fluke or Trend?
Not seasonally adjusted U.S. retail employment fell in May; that hasn't happened since the 1960s.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 03, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: European Council Announces Further Russian Ban
The sanctions would immediately impact 75% of oil imports from Russia.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 03, 2022

Canada Risk Matrix: Curb Your Credit
Rapid interest-rate increases put highly leveraged households back in the spotlight.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 02, 2022

Economic Roundup: Hoarding of U.S. Labor
Businesses are hesitant to lay off workers as initial claims remain low.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 02, 2022

U.S. Inflation Tracker: A Partial Respite
Energy prices dipped slightly in April, shaving more than 20 basis points off the headline.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 02, 2022

U.S. Consumers' Inflation Expectations May Have Peaked
Survey data provide some hints of relief.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 02, 2022

Capital Market View: Spreads Tighten, Issuance Remains Lackluster
High-yield issuance remains cold.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 02, 2022

Final Thoughts Ahead of May U.S. Employment
The economy is slowing and the labor market is not immune.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 01, 2022

Economic Roundup: Time to Worry About the U.S. Consumer?
Gasoline prices are going to rise further, but the consumer can weather it.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 01, 2022

Capital Market View: Bondholders Downplay Stagflation
Term premiums on long-term bonds have barely moved.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 01, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Hike Now, Pause Later
The Fed signaled that it may take a breather later in the year to assess the effects of its hawkish pivot.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 01, 2022

EU Decouples From Russia
The global energy supply crunch will get worse before it gets better.

Dismal.com: Analysis
Jun 01, 2022

Another Commodity Merry-Go-Round?
China's 2020 ban on Australian coal gives us an insight into how commodity markets might respond to sanctions against Russia.

Dismal.com: Analysis
May 31, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Sentiment Searching for Floor
Conference Board survey is holding up better than other measures, thanks to the job market.

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