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Jun 18, 2018

U.S. Employment Outlook: Expansion Endures; Jobs Harder to Fill
Real wages are not accelerating nearly as much as they did in previous tight labor markets. Analysis
Jun 15, 2018

U.S. Default Forecast Edges Higher
The projected slide by the high-yield default rate bodes well for earnings-sensitive financial assets. Analysis
Jun 15, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 15, 2018
The week ahead won't match the week that was. Analysis
Jun 15, 2018

Economic Roundup: Every Hand Isn't a Winner
U.S. and China taking trade gambles. Analysis
Jun 15, 2018

Canada Weekly: Housing Fatigue
A growing number of forces will drag down growth in the housing market over 2018. Analysis
Jun 15, 2018

Trump Administration Slaps More Tariffs on China
The direct impact on U.S. GDP and inflation is small; knock-on effects are more concerning. Analysis
Jun 14, 2018

Borrowing Behavior Reflects Expectations of Limited Climb by Treasury Yields
Apparently, the government feels no pressing need to lock in recent fixed-rate borrowing costs. Analysis
Jun 14, 2018

Economic Roundup: Draghi Steals a Page From Bernanke's Playbook
Calendar-based guidance is risky, as it can be misinterpreted as a hard commitment. Analysis
Jun 14, 2018

Q2 U.S. GDP Still Coming in Hot
We still have GDP tracking 4% this quarter. Analysis
Jun 14, 2018

Q2 U.S. Growth Still Coming in Hot
We still have GDP tracking 4% this quarter. Analysis
Jun 14, 2018

U.S. Consumer Spending Heats Up
The tight labor market, tax legislation, and weather boosted retail sales in May. Analysis
Jun 14, 2018

Fed Could Be Playing With Fire
Options are available to avoid an inverted yield curve. Analysis
Jun 14, 2018

Solid Fed Consensus on Rate Path for Remainder of This Year
Something will have to go terribly wrong for the Fed not to raise rates two more times. Analysis
Jun 13, 2018

FOMC's New Rate Outlook Warns Against Complacency
The Federal Reserve expressed its limited tolerance for faster price growth. Analysis
Jun 13, 2018

Economic Roundup: An FOMC Smorgasbord
The Fed raises rates, drops forward guidance, adjusts rate path, makes technical change to IOER. Analysis
Jun 13, 2018

A Dissent: The Economic Consequences of Unrestricted Rent in California
Control measures may be the lesser of evils. Analysis
Jun 13, 2018

With Eye on Fed Funds Rate, Central Bank Likely to Adjust IOER
Two dominant players in the fed funds market could cause the central bank some headaches. Analysis
Jun 13, 2018

Operating Lease and Pension Interest Rates - May 2018 Analysis
Jun 12, 2018

High-Yield Borrowing: Bond Offerings Plunge, New Bank Loan Programs Soar
Faster CPI inflation lives up to expectations. Analysis
Jun 12, 2018

Economic Roundup: No Surprise That U.S. Inflation Is Perking Up
Consider the tight labor market, above-trend GDP growth, higher commodity prices, and tariffs. Analysis
Jun 12, 2018

Airing the Dirty Laundry About U.S. Tariffs
If there is any debate about tariffs' impact on inflation, look at laundry equipment. Analysis
Jun 12, 2018

In the Friend Zone
The U.S.-North Korea summit ended amiably, but a difficult road lies ahead. Analysis
Jun 11, 2018

Market Leads the Fed at Hiking Variable-Rate Borrowing Costs
The 3-month Libor is effectively ahead of the Fed, which will likely raise rates this week. Analysis
Jun 11, 2018

Economic Roundup: This Week Is About to Get Interesting
The geopolitical event risk and economic calendars heat up. Analysis
Jun 11, 2018

Global Outlook: Nearing the Peak
Growth will continue to accelerate in 2018, but gains will be less broad-based. Analysis
Jun 11, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Traders, not Traitors
Escalating rancor between the U.S. and its G-7 allies overshadows a week full of positive data. Analysis
Jun 11, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 8, 2018
The FOMC will raise the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points. Analysis
Jun 11, 2018

FOMC Preview: Lots to Digest
Fed will raise rates, realign IOER, and signal more rate hikes in 2018 and 2019. Analysis
Jun 08, 2018

Economic Roundup: Can the BoC Wait on NAFTA?
We have raised our subjective odds of a July rate hike by the Bank of Canada. Analysis
Jun 08, 2018

Low VIX and Upturn by Core Business Sales Bode Well for Credit
Core sales' livelier tone also a good sign for profitability, capital spending and hiring. Analysis
Jun 08, 2018

U.S. Mental Health Issues Have Social and Economic Consequences
Aside from the toll on society, the labor force is undermined. Analysis
Jun 08, 2018

Canada Weekly: Tariff Impact Will Be Minimal
U.S. levies on Canadian steel and aluminum will not cause a surge in the trade deficit. Analysis
Jun 07, 2018

Emerging-Market Worries Pare U.S. Treasury Yields
Federal debt rises, explaining 2018's interest rate upswing. Analysis
Jun 07, 2018

Economic Roundup: Job Market Still Most Impressive of U.S. Indicators
Also, final numbers show euro zone's economy decelerated in the first quarter. Analysis
Jun 07, 2018

Economic Growth Slows as Ratio of Debt to GDP Climbs Ever Higher (Capital Markets Research) Analysis
Jun 06, 2018

Economic Roundup: Downward Revision to U.S. Productivity Growth Leaves a Sour Taste
Hours were revised up and output was revised down; U.S. trade deficit narrowed. Analysis
Jun 06, 2018

Base Metals Price Index Upturn Warns of Higher Treasury Bond Yields
If the index extends its climb, so will yields and corporate borrowing costs. Analysis
Jun 06, 2018

Trade Should Add to Q2 U.S. GDP
Second quarter growth is tracking 4% after April trade data. Analysis
Jun 06, 2018

Uphill Climb for U.S. Labor Productivity
Tepid gains are weighing on profits and could slow business investment. Analysis
Jun 06, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Labor Market Shows Its Strength
It's a done deal that the Fed will raise interest rates in June. Analysis
Jun 05, 2018

Signs of Stress in Emerging Markets Will Limit Upside for U.S. Treasury Yields
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 2.92% despite some good news. Analysis
Jun 05, 2018

Economic Roundup: Job Openings Edge Higher to a New Record
Trade and the difficulty filling open positions are challenges for U.S. nonmanufacturing. Analysis
Jun 04, 2018

Equity Rally Reinforces Narrowing of Corporate Bond Yield Spreads
Bond markets outside the U.S. limit upside for Treasury yields. Analysis
Jun 04, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S. Factory Orders Nick Q2 GDP Growth
Trade risks may gain more visibility in coming U.S. factory order numbers. Analysis
Jun 04, 2018

U.S. Factory Orders Dropped More Than Expected in April
Implications for GDP are fairly small. Analysis
Jun 04, 2018

Canada Outlook: The Good, the Bad and the Risky
Positives for the economy still outweigh the negatives, but downside risks are escalating. Analysis
Jun 01, 2018

Containment of Labor Costs Preserves Margins, Curbs Inflation
Modest wage growth implies the jobless rate can drop further without triggering an inflation upturn. Analysis
Jun 01, 2018

Economic Roundup: How Low Can You Go?
The U.S. unemployment rate hit 3.8% in May and is going lower. Analysis
Jun 01, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, June 1, 2018
We'll get a look at the nonmanufacturing segment of the economy, which accounts for 88% of GDP. Analysis
Jun 01, 2018

A Done Deal
The Fed will raise rates in June; the bar for not moving in September is now higher. Analysis
Jun 01, 2018

U.S. Construction Spending Heated Up in April
There are no implications for Q2 GDP, but revisions were kind to Q1 GDP. Analysis
May 31, 2018

Low Savings Rate Implies Many Live Paycheck to Paycheck
Forecasts of inflation may be upended by many consumers' inability to afford price hikes. Analysis
May 31, 2018

Economic Roundup: Where Do We Begin?
What a day, with tariffs, U.S. consumer spending, yield curve, stagflation concerns in euro zone. Analysis
May 31, 2018

Final Thoughts Ahead of U.S. Employment
We are sticking with our below-consensus forecast, but risks are weighted to the upside. Analysis
May 31, 2018

Mother Nature Helps Lift U.S. Consumer Spending
Growth less impressive after adjusting for the boost from weather. Analysis
May 30, 2018

Market Is Ahead of the Fed on Hiking Short-Term Borrowing Costs
Meanwhile, higher mortgage yields may be curbing home sales. Analysis
May 30, 2018

Economic Roundup: Calm, but the Storm in Italy Is Likely Not Over
There will be more tensions, but we don't expect a repeat of the European debt crisis. Analysis
May 30, 2018

Looking Better for Q2 U.S. GDP
We are now tracking 3.4% at an annualized rate. Analysis
May 30, 2018

New U.S. Bank Rules Well Timed for Munis
Classifying munis as HQLA will increase muni demand just when issuers need it most. Analysis
May 30, 2018

U.S. Q1 GDP Revised Down, but Forecast Still Points Up
Revisions to intellectual property investment suggest productivity growth could eventually improve. Analysis
May 30, 2018

Lower Treasury Yields May Help Stabilize Volatile Equities
Italian political uncertainty isn't the only source of market jitters. Analysis
May 30, 2018

No Paradox in U.S. Manufacturing's Productivity Funk
There are good reasons for the slowdown. Analysis
May 29, 2018

Economic Roundup: Italy Could Be Headed for New Elections
Political issues in Italy and Spain spook financial markets. Analysis
May 29, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Economy Is on Track, Never Mind the Noise
The Fed will tolerate a modest and temporary overshoot of its 2% inflation target. Analysis
May 29, 2018

Lower Bund Yield Limits Upside for U.S. Treasury Yields
The 10-year Treasury yield is now at 252 basis points above the 10-year German bund yield. Analysis
May 25, 2018

Economic Roundup: Aircraft Behind Drop In Durable Goods Orders
There were some encouraging details but investment isn't booming this quarter. Analysis
May 25, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 25, 2018
Will April showers bring May flowers for the labor market? Analysis
May 25, 2018

Canada Weekly: Driving in Circles
With NAFTA talks stalling on auto demands, auto manufacturers reenter the spotlight. Analysis
May 25, 2018

Risks in the Potential U.S. Auto Tariff
If other countries retaliate, then U.S. GDP would decline. Analysis
May 25, 2018

For U.S. Gasoline Prices, Speed Can Kill
Effect on consumer spending depends on how quickly prices at the pump rise. Analysis
May 24, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S. Residential Investment Softens
Home sales drop; manufacturing surveys continue to improve; Trump cancels North Korea summit. Analysis
May 24, 2018

Flat-to-Lower Home Sales May Rein in Treasury Yields
March marked the 17th consecutive yearly decline by the home affordability index. Analysis
May 24, 2018

Volcano Won't Burn Hawaii's Economy
Eruption on the Big Island is hurting tourism, but its broader impact will be modest. Analysis
May 24, 2018

U.S. Existing-Home Sales Drop in April
Residential investment is off to a slow start this quarter. Analysis
May 23, 2018

Housing and Bond Issuance Hint of Lower Treasury Yields Ahead
The highest effective 30-year mortgage yield in seven years has depressed refinancing applications. Analysis
May 23, 2018

Economic Roundup: Fed Aiming for 2%-ish
Central bank will stomach a modest and temporary inflation overshoot. Analysis
May 23, 2018

Are U.S. Airfares About to Take Flight?
Limited pricing power is keeping fares low, for now. Analysis
May 23, 2018

U.S. New-Home Sales Fail to Meet Expectations
April sales dropped and annual revisions dinged the first quarter. Analysis
May 22, 2018

Default Rate's Expected Drop Favors Higher Equity Market in a Year
Moody's projects a decline by the U.S. high-yield default rate from 3.7% to 1.5%. Analysis
May 22, 2018

Economic Roundup: The Three T's
Transitory, trade and tariffs were the focus on Tuesday. Analysis
May 22, 2018

A Misguided Attempt to Make California's Housing More Affordable
Repealing Costa Hawkins would limit housing supply and boost construction costs, ultimately hurting more people than it would help. Analysis
May 22, 2018

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Income Growth Accelerates, Then Slips
Spending growth will follow income growth. Analysis
May 21, 2018

Economic Roundup: Friends With Deficits
Trade tensions between China and the U.S. ease, for now. Analysis
May 21, 2018

High-Yield Spread Now Resembles Its 2006 Average
The high-yield spread was recently at 349 basis points. Analysis
May 21, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Consumers Emerge From Funk While Manufacturing Is on a Roll
Q1 GDP is tracking 2.2% while Q2 is at 3.1%. Analysis
May 21, 2018

U.S.-China Trade Tensions Ease
The more controversial and complex sticking points between the two nations remain unaddressed. Analysis
May 21, 2018

U.S. Regional Outlook: In Late Stage, but Still Room to Run
The economy is growing, but traditional comparative advantage is shifting. Analysis
May 18, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, May 18, 2018
FOMC minutes should be uneventful while the Treasury will be busy. Analysis
May 18, 2018

Economic Roundup: NAFTA State of Mind for the BoC
Lack of progress on the trade pact is more important to the BoC than April CPI. Analysis
May 18, 2018

Bond Yields Now Rein In Equity Prices
The price of a corporate bond can rise despite higher Treasury yields. Analysis
May 18, 2018

Canada Weekly: Doing the Labor Market Twist
Part-time workers are transitioning to full-time. Analysis
May 18, 2018

Revisiting Key Questions for the U.S. Economy in 2018
Our confidence has improved for some projections but weakened for others. Analysis
May 17, 2018

High-Yield Spreads Narrow and Investment-Grade Spreads Widen since End of 2017
When the unemployment rate and the capacity utilization rate indicate declining rates of resource utilization, recessions impend or are present. Analysis
May 17, 2018

Cross-Sector: Market Data Highlights Analysis
May 17, 2018

Economic Roundup: What to Expect When You're Expecting ... Inflation
Philly Fed signals a pickup in producer prices while inflation expectations could be on the move. Analysis
May 17, 2018

Economic Roundup: What to Expect When Your're Expecting ... Inflation
Philly Fed signals a pickup in producer prices while inflation expectations could be on the move. Analysis
May 17, 2018

Inflation Expectations Should Be on the Move Soon
Inflation expectations should begin to move higher. Analysis
May 17, 2018

What to Expect When You're Expecting...Inflation
Inflation expectations should begin to move higher. Analysis
May 17, 2018

U.S. Employment Outlook: Hitting the Limits
Record vacancies amid a tight labor market and immigration restrictions could see job gains fall short of expectations. Analysis
May 17, 2018

Low Utilization Rate Favors Profits Growth and Fewer Defaults (Capital Markets Research)

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