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Aug 14, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S. Economy Taking Emerging Market Issues in Stride
Small businesses were still joyful, while financial market conditions remain supportive for growth. Analysis
Aug 14, 2018

Unstable Emerging Markets May Force the Fed to Reconsider Tapering Strategy
The dollar has strengthened considerably across a large number of EM currencies. Analysis
Aug 14, 2018

Turkey's Troubles Spare the U.S. Economy, So Far
It's not the direct but the secondary effects that could be the issue. Analysis
Aug 14, 2018

U.S. Regional Outlook: Growth Paths Diverge
Job growth in the South has moved into the lead. Analysis
Aug 13, 2018

Economic Roundup: Contagion Fears Are Back
Contagion worries emerge amid Turkey's lira crisis. Analysis
Aug 13, 2018

Emerging Markets May Sink if 10-year Treasury Yield Climbs Above 3%
Brazil's currency is also undergoing a pronounced depreciation. Analysis
Aug 13, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Keeping It 'Real'
Drop in real average hourly earnings isn't cause for concern. Analysis
Aug 13, 2018

U.S. Macro Outlook: Significant Differences, Eerie Similarities
The parallels between today's leveraged lending and precrisis subprime lending bear watching. Analysis
Aug 13, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, 10 August, 2018
Amazon's Prime Day added some uncertainty to the forecast. Analysis
Aug 10, 2018

Economic Roundup: Warmer
U.S. core CPI is firming, but inflation isn't an immediate concern. Analysis
Aug 10, 2018

Recent Events Show How Higher Leverage Reins in Benchmark Interest Rates
FOMC's median forecast of a 3.125% midpoint for year-end 2019's federal funds rate seems ambitious. Analysis
Aug 10, 2018

Canada Weekly: Trouble on the Farm
China's agricultural tariffs against the U.S. will hurt Canadian farmers. Analysis
Aug 09, 2018

Markets Shrug Off Record Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP
Second quarter readings reflect a more positive outlook for earnings than for earlier highs. Analysis
Aug 09, 2018

Economic Roundup: Third Quarter Is Off to a Good Start
The initial estimate has Q3 GDP tracking 3.6%. Analysis
Aug 09, 2018

After a Late Start, U.S. GDP Tracker Showing a Strong Q3
The economy has solid momentum. Analysis
Aug 09, 2018

Profit Outlook Offsets Record Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP (Capital Markets Research) Analysis
Aug 08, 2018

Falling Mortgage Applications Weaken Case for Treasury Yields to Climb
Lower affordability seems to outweigh job growth for prospective buyers. Analysis
Aug 08, 2018

Economic Roundup: More Back and Forth Between U.S. and China
If trade tensions continue to build, China will implement more monetary and fiscal stimulus. Analysis
Aug 08, 2018

Tweaking Our Forecast for the U.S. Economy
We have made changes to our outlook for GDP, inflation and interest rates. Analysis
Aug 08, 2018

Global Outlook: Marching to Different Drummers
Growth is set to slow everywhere but in the U.S. and Latin America. Analysis
Aug 07, 2018

Market Value of U.S. Common Equity Hits a New High
The value has now increased by an ample 7.3% since the end of 2017. Analysis
Aug 07, 2018

Economic Roundup: Time Heals Many Wounds
Fears about higher structural unemployment in the U.S. following the recession have faded. Analysis
Aug 06, 2018

VIX Closes at Its Lowest Since U.S. Equities' Record High in January
Meanwhile, global business activity has lost momentum since the start of the year. Analysis
Aug 06, 2018

Economic Roundup: Federal Reserve's Latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
This is an additional support to an economy that has strong momentum. Analysis
Aug 06, 2018

The Anatomy of U.S. Housing's Recent Setback
This is not the time to panic. Analysis
Aug 06, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Labor Market Sizzles Without Overheating
Employers added fewer jobs than expected in July, but the economy is on a strong trajectory. Analysis
Aug 06, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 3, 2018
The focus is on inflation. Analysis
Aug 03, 2018

July Jobs Report Hints of Sustainable Profits Growth
A dwindling supply of qualified workers should push firms to get more output from existing workforces. Analysis
Aug 03, 2018

Economic Roundup: Don't Fret Over July Employment
Job growth is still impressive, suggesting remaining slack in the labor market. Analysis
Aug 03, 2018

U.S. Retail Pricing Power Improving
Revisions paint a stronger picture. Analysis
Aug 03, 2018

U.S. Labor Market Still Red Hot
Seasonal adjustment issues and Toys R Us put a dent in July employment. Analysis
Aug 03, 2018

Canada Weekly: Monetary Policy Update
Inflation and the labor market will force one more rate hike this year. Analysis
Aug 02, 2018

Older Workers' Record Share of Employment Curbs Wages
Compensation remains well-contained despite a low jobless rate. Analysis
Aug 02, 2018

Economic Roundup: Bank of England in No Hurry to Hike Again
BoE raised rates at its August meeting but may take a long breather. Analysis
Aug 02, 2018

Cross-Sector: Market Data Highlights Analysis
Aug 02, 2018

Operating Lease and Pension Interest Rates - July 2018 Analysis
Aug 02, 2018

Upon Further Review, Debt to EBITDA Still Falls Short as an Aggregate Predictor (Capital Markets Research) Analysis
Aug 01, 2018

The Relationship Between EBITDA and Corporate Debt
An examination of the ratio of the two tells a default risk story, depending on the ratio used. Analysis
Aug 01, 2018

Economic Roundup: Fed Takes a Summer Vacation
The August meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was simply a formality. Analysis
Aug 01, 2018

Revisions Save U.S. Construction Spending
Construction spending fell in June, but the implications for Q2 GDP are small. Analysis
Jul 31, 2018

More to Default Outlook Than High Corporate-Debt-to-GDP Ratio
U.S. equities come out of a three-day skid. Analysis
Jul 31, 2018

Economic Roundup: A Whirlwind of a Day
BoJ adopts forward guidance, euro zone GDP underwhelms, and U.S. ECI was just fine. Analysis
Jul 30, 2018

Pending Home Sales Troubled by 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Under 3%
The typical homebuyer is likely to balk at higher mortgage yields. Analysis
Jul 30, 2018

Economic Roundup: Trade Tensions Are Hurting Global Business Sentiment
Our business confidence survey is heading in the wrong direction. Analysis
Jul 30, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Economy on a Sugar High
Odds are 4% isn't the new normal. Analysis
Jul 30, 2018

U.S. Consumers Saving More Than Previously Thought
There are potential implications for understanding consumer behavior and the outlook. Analysis
Jul 30, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, July 30, 2018
The focus in this busy week will be on employment. Analysis
Jul 27, 2018

Economic Roundup: Enjoy the Best Stage of the Business Cycle
U.S. inflation is low, GDP growth is above trend, and unemployment is low. Analysis
Jul 27, 2018

GDP Revisions Lift Ratio of Corporate Debt to Operating Profits
The ratio jumped from 6.91-1 to 7.31-1, higher than in 2007 before the crisis. Analysis
Jul 27, 2018

FOMC Preview: August Is Just a Formality
Expect a few tweaks to the post-meeting statement but nothing overly significant. Analysis
Jul 27, 2018

Partying Like It's 2014
Juice from the U.S. fiscal stimulus and a still-accommodative Fed will keep the party going. Analysis
Jul 27, 2018

Partying Like Its 2014
Juice from the U.S. fiscal stimulus and a still-accommodative Fed will keep the party going. Analysis
Jul 27, 2018

Canada Weekly: Show Me the Money
A record tight labor market and rising oil prices are boosting earnings across the country. Analysis
Jul 26, 2018

Already-High Debt-to-Cash-Flow Ratio Limits Upside for Treasury Yields
Reduced expectations for benchmark Treasury yields may have lifted housing-share prices. Analysis
Jul 26, 2018

Economic Roundup: High Expectations for Q2 GDP
Durable goods orders, trade and inventories were disappointing, but GDP still tracking 4%. Analysis
Jul 26, 2018

Final Thoughts Ahead of Q2 U.S. GDP
Friday's report will contain a lot of moving parts. Analysis
Jul 26, 2018

Plenty of Disappointments
U.S. durable goods orders, the goods deficit, and inventories were all soft in June. Analysis
Jul 25, 2018

'Art of the Deal' Sparks Equity Rally, but Housing Shares Plunge
The PHLX index of housing sector share prices broke ranks with July 25's unexpected rise. Analysis
Jul 25, 2018

Economic Roundup: Ignore Monthly Swings in U.S. New-Home Sales
The trend remains decent, and a peak has yet to be reached. Analysis
Jul 25, 2018

Previewing the U.S. GDP Benchmark Revisions
The BEA is taking aim at residual seasonality. Analysis
Jul 25, 2018

U.S. New-Home Sales Hit a Soft Patch
A peak would be telling, but it hasn't come, yet. Analysis
Jul 25, 2018

Trump Offers Protection From His Own Trade Protectionism
Retaliatory sanctions on U.S. agricultural products are destabilizing areas already weighed down by low commodity prices. Analysis
Jul 25, 2018

U.S. Federal Outlook: Tick Tock Goes the Social Security Clock
Social Security will run out of money in 2034, but Congress can prevent this. Analysis
Jul 24, 2018

Housing-Sector Share Prices Lag the Overall Equity Market
The PHLX would need to rise by 20.2% to return to its recovery high of January 23. Analysis
Jul 24, 2018

Economic Roundup: U.S. Manufacturing Is Holding Up
Richmond Fed survey was decent. Trump administration announces aid to farmers. Analysis
Jul 24, 2018

U.S. Retail Pricing Power Weak but Improving
The recovery has been widespread across segments. Analysis
Jul 23, 2018

Housing Influencing U.S. Treasury Yields More Than Japan's Bond Yields Do
Continuing setbacks by existing-home sales limit the upside for Treasury bond yields. Analysis
Jul 23, 2018

Economic Roundup: Parts of U.S. Housing Have Peaked, Others Haven't
The yield curve staged quite the reversal, but the key is whether it will stick. Analysis
Jul 23, 2018

U.S. Employment Outlook: Job Engine Keeps Humming
The share of the population with jobs trends higher. Analysis
Jul 23, 2018

U.S. Existing-Home Sales Slide Continues
There was some better news on inventories, but sales have likely peaked. Analysis
Jul 23, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Just Keep Swimming
The economy is powering ahead as tariff threats loom on the horizon. Analysis
Jul 23, 2018

U.S. Existing-Home Sales May Have Already Peaked this Cycle
Though disappointing, the impact on GDP is small. New-home sales and starts matter more. Analysis
Jul 23, 2018

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, July 20, 2018
We'll get a first look at second quarter GDP growth. Analysis
Jul 20, 2018

President's Remarks on the Economy Drive Bond and Mortgage Yields Higher
Trump's call for an end to Fed rate hikes and a cheaper dollar have backfired so far. Analysis
Jul 20, 2018

Economic Roundup: As Trump Says More, Fed Can Say Less
The U.S. central bank can counter to the president's criticism; hopefully it won't need to. Analysis
Jul 20, 2018

Canada Weekly: Autos, Both Foreign and Domestic
Threats of U.S. vehicle tariffs are spoiling the great news from dealerships. Analysis
Jul 20, 2018

Does the Fed Have a Counter Punch to Trump's Jab?
The central bank will play it cool but should consider dialing back its forward guidance. Analysis
Jul 20, 2018

Unreal Acceleration in U.S. Retail Sales
Despite tax cuts, growth has more to do with prices than real spending. Analysis
Jul 19, 2018

Industrial Metals Price Slide Trims Treasury Bond Yields
The stunning collapse in Moody's metals index is due in part to trade-related uncertainty. Analysis
Jul 19, 2018

Economic Roundup: Festivus Comes Early This Year
Trump airs his grievances about the Fed. Analysis
Jul 19, 2018

Keep Calm and Hike On
Trump aired his grievances about the Fed's rate hikes, but that won't stop them. Analysis
Jul 19, 2018

U.S. Macro Outlook: Dangerous Curve Ahead
Ignore those voices that claim this time is different. Analysis
Jul 19, 2018

Another Reason Not to Fret About the Yield Curve, Yet
Correlation doesn't imply causation of a U.S. recession. Analysis
Jul 19, 2018

Base Metals Price Drop Suggests All Is Not Well (Capital Markets Research) Analysis
Jul 18, 2018

Speculative-Grade Yield Now Tops High-Yield's Coupon
High-yield's average coupon was last below its average yield in 2016. Analysis
Jul 18, 2018

Economic Roundup: One Bad Month Isn't a Trend
Housing starts drop in June, but the trend remains decent. Analysis
Jul 18, 2018

Powell Challenged to Identify the Unidentifiable
The Fed will know what the normal size of the balance sheet once it hits it. Analysis
Jul 18, 2018

Powell Gets Pressed on Fed's Policy Framework
A debate will occur within the central bank, but it won't be lively as the Fed will stick with the floor system. Analysis
Jul 18, 2018

Behind U.S. Housing Starts' Big Drop
Tariffs aren't helping, but they don't explain a decline of this magnitude. Analysis
Jul 18, 2018

U.S. Regional Outlook: Wage, Salary Growth Looking Up
Job growth is solid, but trade tensions are a significant risk. Analysis
Jul 17, 2018

High Yield Has Relatively More Loan Debt Than a Typical Nonfinancial Corporation
Some might argue that high-yield issuers have become overly reliant on loans. Analysis
Jul 17, 2018

Economic Roundup: A Snoozer
Powell sticks the Fed's script as the central bank remains comfortable with gradual rate hikes. Analysis
Jul 17, 2018

Short and Sweet for Fed's Powell
There was more bobbing and weaving than new substance from the central bank's chair. Analysis
Jul 17, 2018

U.S. Industrial Production Bounces Back
The slide in May proved to be temporary. Analysis
Jul 16, 2018

Retail Sales Report Improves Prospects for Corporate Credit Quality
The acceleration bolsters expectations of expanding profits and a further default rate slide Analysis
Jul 16, 2018

Economic Roundup: Another Solid Month for U.S. Retail Sales
Consumers are doing their part to keep this expansion rolling. Analysis
Jul 16, 2018

Beyond the Dollars and Cents of Tariffs
Uncertainty is a concern but past instances suggest the hit to U.S. industrial production is small. Analysis
Jul 16, 2018

U.S. Chartbook: Somethings Old, New, Borrowed and Blue
An expanding trade war has had only a limited effect on inflation, but confidence has begun to slip. Analysis
Jul 16, 2018

No Gripe With June U.S. Retail Sales
Control sales were soft but May's were revised higher. Analysis
Jul 16, 2018

Explaining the Wage Growth Mystery
If unemployment is so low, why has wage growth not picked up?

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