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Sep 17, 2019
Consumers' pocketbooks stay open in the face of rising headwinds.
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Sep 17, 2019
The attack on the Saudi oil infrastructure brings Saudi Arabia, Iran and the U.S. to the brink.
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Sep 17, 2019
Recession fears increase as trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks linger.
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Sep 16, 2019
U.S. economy can weather higher oil prices.
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Sep 16, 2019
The Fed will cut rates on Wednesday but won't signal that more is necessarily on its way.
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Sep 16, 2019
The change is in response to attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure.
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Sep 16, 2019
Although U.S. consumers help alleviate pressure from Saudi oil attacks and China trade tensions.
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Sep 16, 2019
Barometers of future recession give an almost two-thirds probability of a downturn by the middle of next year.
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Sep 16, 2019
We expect the FOMC to cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points.
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Sep 13, 2019
But the FOMC's anticipated cut to 1.875% will remove the inverted yield curve.
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Sep 13, 2019
Concerns of a looming recession may have been premature.
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Sep 13, 2019
The factory segment will not be the source of strength the economy needs.
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Sep 12, 2019
Since the end of 2016, there has been an average of about eight per year.
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Sep 12, 2019
Core CPI overstates acceleration in U.S. inflation. ECB dovish, but central bank was divided.
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Sep 12, 2019
The medical care CPI is unreliable given the low response rate.
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Sep 12, 2019
The proposal addresses the system's financial challenges while substantially increasing benefits.
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Sep 12, 2019
The latest global deceleration of business activity has yet to match the severity of 2015-2016's slump.
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Sep 11, 2019
China will exempt some U.S. goods imports from being subject to a tariff.
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Sep 11, 2019
A combination of events rather than a single one could cause enough damage to trigger a downturn.
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Sep 11, 2019
Devastation in the Bahamas drives an initial overall price tag between $3.5 billion and $6.5 billion.
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Sep 11, 2019
The weakness shown in the Consumer Expenditure Survey contrasts with retail and personal expenditure data.
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Sep 10, 2019
Online searches for "recession" have jumped.
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Sep 10, 2019
The lack of qualified individuals has slowed the growth of private-sector payrolls.
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Sep 10, 2019
Poverty fell as median household income inched higher, but health coverage shrank.
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Sep 10, 2019
Risks remain very high.
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Sep 09, 2019
At long last, this tendency has finally received attention from a leading financial newspaper.
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Sep 09, 2019
Business confidence suggests the global economy is nearing recession.
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Sep 09, 2019
Expansions ebb and flow, but fickle sentiment could push the U.S. economy into reverse.
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Sep 09, 2019
Our new baseline will include three, rather than two, additional cuts this year.
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Sep 09, 2019
Economic and political pressures have raised the stakes for the U.S. and China with little sign either side will stand down.
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Sep 09, 2019
We answer questions submitted in response to our recent webinar.
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Sep 09, 2019
Key data will be consumer prices, retail sales and jobless claims.
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Sep 06, 2019
Thursday's industrial metals price index was the highest base metals price index since April 30.
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Sep 06, 2019
August employment has fallen short of consensus expectations in eight of the past 11 years.
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Sep 06, 2019
The storm created a humanitarian crisis but the economic implications are likely less severe.
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Sep 06, 2019
Despite slowing global growth and trade tensions, the country's economy ended August on a high note.
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Sep 06, 2019
Our preliminary estimate is that losses to the storm's will be between $600 million and $900 million.
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Sep 06, 2019
Labor supply constraints are more binding in August.
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Sep 06, 2019
As the country chooses new leaders in October the economy also looks for a new source of strength.
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Sep 05, 2019
The U.S. and China will meet and it's looking more likely that Brexit will be delayed, again.
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Sep 05, 2019
Too many businesses overestimated demand and ability to pass on higher costs to product prices.
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Sep 05, 2019
Watch for potential Census Bureau hiring.
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Sep 04, 2019
August's high-yield EDF metric of 4.59% favors an increase by the default rate from 3% to 4% by May 2020.
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Sep 04, 2019
Power shift? U.K. House of Commons passes the Benn bill.
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Sep 04, 2019
As the trade war and other risks mount, an economic downturn appears ever more likely.
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Sep 03, 2019
A consensus of equity market pros sees the current global slowdown as resembling 2015-2016's short-lived slump.
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Sep 03, 2019
ISM manufacturing index drops below 50 while odds of a no-deal Brexit increase.
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Sep 03, 2019
Either one party gives way, or both get hurt.
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Sep 03, 2019
It may get a bit harder to differentiate between signal and noise.
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Sep 03, 2019
The trade war looms large, but consumers have yet to feel the pain.
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Sep 03, 2019
Already elevated leverage heightens the imperative for businesses to maintain profit margins and contain indebtedness.
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Sep 02, 2019
We will return on Tuesday.
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Aug 31, 2019
We will monitor Hurricane Dorian to assess the potential economic costs.
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Aug 30, 2019
Hurricane Dorian could be economically costly.
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Aug 30, 2019
The storm could shave a little off third quarter GDP growth.
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Aug 29, 2019
The mortgage yield spread last widened to 186 bps in early July 2016.
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Aug 29, 2019
China and U.S. resume trade talks while revision to Q2 U.S. GDP was uneventful.
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Aug 29, 2019
Higher tariffs could rob U.S. companies of a key market.
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Aug 29, 2019
Widely watched measures have moved differently of late.
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Aug 28, 2019
A barely inverted Treasury coupon yield curve hardly assures the arrival of a recession by 2020's final quarter.
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Aug 28, 2019
Share of metros with positive job growth is declining.
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Aug 28, 2019
If lawmakers can't agree on details for fiscal 2020, Washington will be at risk of another shutdown.
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Aug 27, 2019
The leveraged loan market has yet to hint of a recessionary "credit crunch."
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Aug 27, 2019
Dudley's op-ed is misguided and could turn up the heat on the current FOMC.
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Aug 27, 2019
Labor and housing markets look okay, but manufacturing is wobbling.
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Aug 26, 2019
The market has yet to signal a recessionary seizing-up of the credit market.
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Aug 26, 2019
China and the U.S. might be talking...or perhaps not.
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Aug 26, 2019
States are adding to their rainy-day funds at a pace seldom seen.
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Aug 26, 2019
Details were mixed, with U.S. third quarter GDP still tracking 1.8%.
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Aug 23, 2019
More tariffs and tweets have markets on edge and increase the risk of a recession.
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Aug 23, 2019
We will be keeping our eye out for developments on the trade front, as risks of further escalation have risen.
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Aug 23, 2019
Trump talk of replacing the Fed chairman could rattle financial markets.
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Aug 23, 2019
After a large upward revision to June, July saw a big decline in purchases despite help from lower mortgage rates.
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Aug 23, 2019
Offshore drilling has not been the economic boom once expected.
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Aug 23, 2019
The Fed chairman's comments were dovish enough.
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Aug 22, 2019
Survey-based data weakened for July.
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Aug 22, 2019
Specialty retailers focused on home goods are suffering.
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Aug 21, 2019
Fed minutes show the central bank leaving the door open for more cuts, but there was little agreement.
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Aug 21, 2019
Consumer confidence will be increasingly important for sales.
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Aug 21, 2019
Average monthly job growth between April 2018 and March 2019 now is much weaker.
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Aug 21, 2019
Read our comparative analysis of household credit data from the New York Fed and Moody's Analytics.
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Aug 20, 2019
Concerns about a recession have reached the White House and the Fed.
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Aug 20, 2019
A 10-year close to 1% could be more likely than a return soon to 2%.
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Aug 20, 2019
There will be less wealth effect spending.
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Aug 20, 2019
Inversions tend to signal recessions in the U.S. but are noisier elsewhere.
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Aug 20, 2019
Recession fears shook financial markets as the trade war dragged on and global growth soured.
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Aug 19, 2019
It's time to watch the weekly data on initial claims and bank lending.
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Aug 19, 2019
Despite solid average job gains this year, the level of uncertainty in the economy is on the rise.
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Aug 16, 2019
Will the Fed chairman send policy signals at Jackson Hole?
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Aug 16, 2019
Trade tensions and a drop in stock prices have dampened U.S. consumers' moods in August.
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Aug 16, 2019
The two national economies are more correlated during periods of distress.
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Aug 15, 2019
New data confirm U.S. consumer is fine, but manufacturing's woes continue.
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Aug 15, 2019
On Wednesday, the Baa industrial yield closed at 4.08%.
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Aug 15, 2019
Manufacturing has had a poor run, but the economy can still move forward.
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Aug 15, 2019
July retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 0.7%.
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Aug 14, 2019
The market now scoffs at the June 19 estimate of a 2.5% long-term average for the federal funds rate.
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Aug 14, 2019
The 10/2 yield curve inverted but it doesn't mean a recession is imminent, a la 1998.
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Aug 14, 2019
Places that rely on exports to China, particularly crops and livestock, are most at risk.
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Aug 13, 2019
Moody's long-term Baa industrial company bond yield sank to 4.13% on Monday.
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Aug 13, 2019
Trump opts to delay some tariffs until December 15 to avoid hurting holiday shopping.
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