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Oct 18, 2018
The market couldn't have been reacting to talk of a restrictive Fed policy.
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Oct 18, 2018
If financial market conditions affect the economy, it would first be visible in claims.
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Oct 18, 2018
One factor helping to contain wage growth and overheating is the lingering effect of the Great Recession.
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Oct 17, 2018
Home and vehicle sales are among the first to feel the pinch of higher interest rates.
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Oct 17, 2018
There's a strong consensus within the Fed that monetary policy will need to turn restrictive.
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Oct 17, 2018
Fiscal stimulus has contributed to faster job gains despite a shrinking pool of available workers.
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Oct 17, 2018
Starts dropped in September but there appears to be some hurricane effect.
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Oct 17, 2018
Damage from Michael looks worse one week later, while Florence's price tag has been lowered.
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Oct 16, 2018
If you adhere to the 4% or higher prediction for the 10-year Treasury, the best is yet to come for U.S. equities.
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Oct 16, 2018
Industrial production rose more than anticipated.
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Oct 16, 2018
Fossil fuel price increases drove up spending.
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Oct 15, 2018
Thus far, the equity market has had difficulty shouldering a 10-year Treasury yield above 3%.
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Oct 15, 2018
Retail sales disappointed, but the details were better than the headlines would suggest.
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Oct 15, 2018
The most immediate concern for investors is the escalating trade war.
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Oct 15, 2018
Control sales posted a solid gain for the month of September.
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Oct 15, 2018
The Fed is the likely catalyst for the recent selloff in U.S. equities, because it isn't tied to economic fundamentals.
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Oct 12, 2018
The range could set a top for one industry and put downward pressure on another.
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Oct 12, 2018
We are watching for the hurricane effects.
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Oct 12, 2018
Inflation expectations, which declined, are clearly on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's radar.
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Oct 12, 2018
Storm unleashed massive devastation in a few areas while disrupting much of the Southeast.
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Oct 12, 2018
The USMCA trade deal contains a clause aimed at preventing Canada from forging a pact with China.
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Oct 12, 2018
Next week brings some key inputs and there could be a hurricane effect.
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Oct 11, 2018
Meanwhile, what has become of the Phillips curve?
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Oct 11, 2018
It was another bad day on Wall Street but neither the Fed or economy will budge, for now.
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Oct 11, 2018
Trust the process.
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Oct 11, 2018
We have revised our near-term federal fiscal assumptions as the stimulus is spread over a longer period.
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Oct 10, 2018
Free-falling share prices might drive the 10-year Treasury yield under 3% fairly soon.
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Oct 10, 2018
Economy's fundamentals will win the day.
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Oct 10, 2018
The robust labor market is the key support.
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Oct 09, 2018
The next recession may show that real estate prices are too high in a number of regions.
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Oct 09, 2018
U.S. small business sentiment slipped in September but remains near its historical high.
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Oct 09, 2018
Ten years after the financial crisis, personal saving for households is in much better shape.
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Oct 09, 2018
The storm's impact on fourth quarter U.S. GDP will be small.
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Oct 09, 2018
Monday's gains by public utility and housing shares may be in anticipation of a Tuesday dip by Treasury bond yields.
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Oct 08, 2018
Term premium is rising, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up, and there is more room to run.
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Oct 08, 2018
September CPI unlikely to have significant monetary policy implications.
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Oct 08, 2018
Storm likely subtracted 40,000 to 50,000 from September gain.
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Oct 08, 2018
The expansion will become more uneven as tighter financial conditions and trade risks intensify.
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Oct 05, 2018
September jobs report doesn't boost inflation expectations materially.
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Oct 05, 2018
A storm sinks September payrolls for the second year in a row.
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Oct 05, 2018
Hurricane Florence and calendar quirks hurt job growth but the unemployment rate dropped.
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Oct 05, 2018
The new trade deal will hurt Canadian dairy, benefit consumers.
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Oct 04, 2018
Weak housing- and motor vehicle-related stocks imply an outlook that is not universally rosy.
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Oct 04, 2018
U.S. job growth in September will likely underperform the previous six-month average.
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Oct 04, 2018
Expect some hurricane effect, and a calendar quirk also could weigh on job growth.
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Oct 03, 2018
Ten-year Treasury bond yield jumps in daily trading.
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Oct 03, 2018
GDP growth in the third quarter is still on track to rise 3.2% at an annualized rate.
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Oct 03, 2018
High-yield downgrades were off 69% y/y, while upgrades dropped 13%.
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Oct 02, 2018
Fed's forward guidance is dead, but don't expect any surprises by the central bank.
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Oct 02, 2018
Households with a college degree do nearly all of the saving.
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Oct 02, 2018
Households with a college degree do nearly all of the saving.
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Oct 02, 2018
Households with a college degree do nearly all of the saving.
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Oct 02, 2018
U.S. trade policy is likely in the process of shifting.
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Oct 02, 2018
Beyond modest benefits for U.S. automakers and dairy producers, the new trade pact brings little change.
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Oct 01, 2018
Newly rated loans from high-yield issuers decelerate.
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Oct 01, 2018
ISM manufacturing index fell in September, but the details remained favorable.
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Oct 01, 2018
The trade war and rising interest rates will add speed bumps to the expansion.
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Sep 28, 2018
Hurricane Florence will have added uncertainty to the latest employment numbers.
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Sep 28, 2018
In fact, yields may drop in in face of weakening interest-sensitive sales.
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Sep 28, 2018
With the economy in the sweet spot, the Fed's focus should shift to engineering a soft landing.
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Sep 28, 2018
The country has created an immigration system that fosters growth and allows migrants to prosper.
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Sep 28, 2018
The gap between demand and supply is large and there are significant constraints on builders.
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Sep 27, 2018
Ratio is more reliable if accompanied by shrinkage in core profits.
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Sep 27, 2018
GDP for the quarter is now tracking 3.2% at an annualized rate.
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Sep 27, 2018
Trade is going to take a big bite off growth this quarter.
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Sep 26, 2018
Fed drops "accommodative," and a debate is born.
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Sep 26, 2018
A further climb by benchmark interest rates could drive home sales even lower.
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Sep 26, 2018
A further climb by benchmark interest rates could drive home sales even lower.
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Sep 26, 2018
The string of disappointing housing data continues.
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Sep 26, 2018
Chatter about a possible U.S. government shutdown picks up, but the economic costs would be very small.
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Sep 26, 2018
Labor productivity's performance matters considerably.
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Sep 25, 2018
Consumer confidence increases in September, hitting a high for the cycle.
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Sep 25, 2018
Five scenarios define the range of possibilities; we assess their impact on the U.K., the EU and global economies.
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Sep 25, 2018
Capacity constraints and cost pressures are growing increasingly prevalent.
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Sep 24, 2018
Adding to the unease are uncertainties about trade disputes and the midterms.
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Sep 24, 2018
U.S. implements more levies on China, and odds are rising more are on their way.
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Sep 24, 2018
The U.S. has now put levies on more than $300 billion worth of goods, or about 13% of total imports.
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Sep 24, 2018
Hear our discussion of the storm's price tag and its effect on the wider economy.
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Sep 24, 2018
Significant hurricane damage to the East Coast and new tariffs against China are both bad news.
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Sep 24, 2018
The focus this week is on the FOMC and a likely interest rate hike.
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Sep 24, 2018
The labor market will start to face more binding supply constraints next year.
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Sep 21, 2018
Both recent definitions may not be liquid enough in a time of systemic stress.
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Sep 21, 2018
Tensions escalated between the U.K. and the European Union; a deal is still likely.
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Sep 21, 2018
The Fed will raise rates, but the main events will be the economic and interest rate projections.
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Sep 21, 2018
Actions speak louder than words and Canadian investors are betting against a NAFTA deal.
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Sep 20, 2018
Rebuilding is far from over, and policymakers can still shape the island's economic prospects.
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Sep 20, 2018
Higher yields now trim investment-grade bond issuance.
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Sep 20, 2018
New filings will jump in the next couple of weeks.
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Sep 20, 2018
As U.S. flooding worsens, storm's cost approaches $50 billion.
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Sep 19, 2018
Upgrades, meanwhile, may be due to deleveraging, profits growth, better cash flow, and revenue growth.
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Sep 19, 2018
Upgrades, meanwhile, may be due to deleveraging, profits growth, better cash flow, and revenue growth.
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Sep 19, 2018
Starts jumped in August, but permits were a little troubling.
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Sep 19, 2018
Risk-taking, leveraged lending and fiscal and monetary policy bear watching for missteps.
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Sep 18, 2018
U.S. and Chinese equities get a small lift from trade news.
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Sep 18, 2018
President Trump will impose tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods imports next week.
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Sep 18, 2018
We have a more pessimistic outlook for birth rates than in our prior forecast.
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Sep 18, 2018
The U.S.-China trade war escalates with 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports.
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