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Jan 22, 2021
M2's estimate of systemic liquidity was up by 25.1% year over year, besting its 1983 record.
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Jan 22, 2021
The risk is that house prices increase too quickly this year.
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Jan 22, 2021
Inflation in 2020 will end up at just 0.7%, the slowest year of price growth since 2009.
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Jan 22, 2021
Millions of Americans struggling with the economic fallout from the virus may soon face months of back rent that they can't possibly afford.
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Jan 22, 2021
Much of the euro zone remains in lockdown, but may need to extend stimulus soon.
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Jan 22, 2021
The only potential surprise next week could come from Jerome Powell's post-meeting presser.
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Jan 22, 2021
In his first full day in office, President Biden takes on the pandemic.
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Jan 21, 2021
Our expected default frequency metric fell to its lowest point since November 2018.
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Jan 21, 2021
Housing starts leap but gap between single-family starts and permits isn't favorable.
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Jan 21, 2021
Auto credit balances were able to rise and delinquencies remained low through the end of 2020.
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Jan 21, 2021
Democrats' razor-thin majority put budget reconciliation in play, but it won't be a smooth process.
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Jan 21, 2021
Restrictions and virus spread are both to blame for a pickup in unemployment.
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Jan 21, 2021
Changing assumptions are creating a more manageable mess.
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Jan 20, 2021
The month's offerings so far include more than $47 billion of new high-yield supply.
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Jan 20, 2021
The NAHB housing market index drops more than expected in January but remains near historic highs.
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Jan 20, 2021
The Trump era was consequential in many ways, particularly for fiscal policy.
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Jan 19, 2021
Third-quarter 2020 net stock buybacks were the lowest since 2009's third quarter.
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Jan 19, 2021
The Treasury Secretary nominee argues that more support is needed to avoid a slow recovery.
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Jan 19, 2021
Consumer services will begin to recover as the share of the population that is vaccinated increases.
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Jan 19, 2021
Initial claims and housing data will be released.
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Jan 19, 2021
Despite improving economic prospects for later this year, the recovery faces a difficult winter.
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Jan 17, 2021
Our U.S. offices will reopen Tuesday, January 19.
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Jan 15, 2021
Lockdowns contributed to the divergence of categories that lost and gained.
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Jan 15, 2021
A drop in December retail sales cuts into our tracking estimate of fourth-quarter GDP.
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Jan 15, 2021
Vaccine distribution logistics dictate the speed of resolving the pandemic and economic recovery.
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Jan 15, 2021
Where are retail trade and e-commerce now, and where are they going?
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Jan 15, 2021
Our estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth fell from 7.1% to 6% at an annualized rate.
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Jan 15, 2021
In Europe, concerns are mounting about the government crisis in Italy.
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Jan 15, 2021
With a Democratic majority in the Senate, we expect a larger aid package this quarter.
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Jan 15, 2021
With this additional economic support, real GDP growth would be robust at nearly 8% this year and almost 4% next.
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Jan 14, 2021
The Fed could keep rates unchanged for longer than we anticipate.
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Jan 14, 2021
The Southwest is the latest epicenter, but the slow vaccine rollout is a concern everywhere.
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Jan 13, 2021
Some credit rating upgrades were partly due to new loan programs.
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Jan 13, 2021
New fiscal policy assumptions cause GDP growth to hit 5% this year and next.
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Jan 13, 2021
Price pressures remained on a relatively even keel in December.
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Jan 13, 2021
Our forecast of 5% GDP growth this year and next is even more above the consensus.
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Jan 13, 2021
The PHLX index of oil-service company stocks is up by 21.2% since the end of 2020.
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Jan 13, 2021
Along with taxes, small businesses say that a lack of qualified labor is one of the biggest problems they now face.
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Jan 12, 2021
Anticipation of additional fiscal support is causing markets to adjust their economic expectations.
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Jan 11, 2021
The yield edged up to 1.15%, which already bests the 1.1% forecasted yearly average.
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Jan 11, 2021
Lots of pent-up demand is set to be released for consumer services.
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Jan 11, 2021
It doesn't appear that the pandemic has caused a huge change in people's willingness to travel, raising our confidence for a spending rebound.
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Jan 11, 2021
Core PCE price index inflation will determine if alarm is justified.
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Jan 11, 2021
The outcome of the Georgia Senate races and Democratic control of the federal government have a significant bearing on prospects for fiscal policy.
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Jan 11, 2021
A downbeat jobs report headlined last week's key economic data releases.
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Jan 10, 2021
Expected fiscal support will quickly boost the economy, pushing real GDP growth to more than 5% for all of 2021.
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Jan 08, 2021
Current holdings of M2-type liquid assets exceed normalized holdings by roughly $3.5 trillion.
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Jan 08, 2021
The enormous drop in restaurant employment weighed heavily on the job market in December.
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Jan 08, 2021
Problems in the labor market in December show that Canada's economy is moving in the wrong direction.
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Jan 08, 2021
It is difficult to forecast what happens in DC.
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Jan 08, 2021
Now that Democrats have control of the U.S. Senate, more economic aid is likely.
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Jan 08, 2021
COVID-19 infection rates are running high in Europe.
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Jan 08, 2021
Vaccines and fiscal stimulus will provide a big boost to the labor market later this year.
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Jan 07, 2021
The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 outperformed the general market.
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Jan 07, 2021
The real trade deficit is the widest it's been since the inception of the data in 1994.
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Jan 07, 2021
Fiscal stimulus and the shift in consumer spending could cause the deficit to remain wide and cut into GDP.
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Jan 07, 2021
Broad patterns still hold, but economic effects carried the most weight in mid-year estimates.
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Jan 07, 2021
We look for nonfarm employment to have declined by 25,000 and the unemployment rate to rise to 6.8%.
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Jan 06, 2021
In 2020's final quarter, 15 upgrades were at least partly ascribed to infusions of equity capital.
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Jan 06, 2021
The Georgia Senate elections signal that more stimulus is likely this quarter.
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Jan 06, 2021
Don't fret too much about the acceleration in the first half of the year; it will be transitory.
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Jan 06, 2021
The Saudi-led blockade of Qatar has been lifted but regional trade is likely to evolve slowly.
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Jan 05, 2021
During 2020, net downgrades rose to 368 before dropping to -22.
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Jan 05, 2021
ISM manufacturing index beats expectations in December.
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Jan 05, 2021
An effective vaccination effort could result in a speedy recovery for hard-hit jobs that rely on in-person interaction.
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Jan 05, 2021
The economy entered the new year still struggling under the weight of the pandemic.
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Jan 05, 2021
Tuesday will put to bed the 2020 election cycle, with potential consequences for the baseline forecast.
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Jan 05, 2021
Until the vaccines are widely distributed, the economy will struggle.
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Jan 04, 2021
The Baa industrial yield ended 2020 at its lowest level since August 1952.
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Jan 04, 2021
New year but same economic and public health crises remain.
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Jan 04, 2021
Inflation expectations are on the move and could push the 10-year higher.
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Jan 04, 2021
Some long-running trends were reversed, others accelerated.
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Jan 04, 2021
Our preliminary forecast is for nonfarm employment to have declined 25,000 between November and December.
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Jan 04, 2021
For the first time in a long time, risks to our baseline outlook appear more skewed to the upside than to the downside.
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Dec 31, 2020
We will be back on Monday.
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Dec 31, 2020
Overall exports fell 7% versus the preceding five-year trend.
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Dec 31, 2020
Our tracking estimate of the current quarter increases from 6.5% to 7.1% at an annualized rate.
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Dec 30, 2020
The path of the U.S. economy remains tied to the pandemic and distribution of the vaccines.
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Dec 29, 2020
If the vaccine rollout sticks to script, the pandemic should be receding and the economy ramping-up in the second half of 2021.
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Dec 29, 2020
With the COVID-19 relief and government funding bill, fiscal policy error is no longer a risk.
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Dec 29, 2020
The economy remains in a precarious position.
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Dec 29, 2020
Seasonal price decreases from early fall have accelerated in November and December.
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Dec 28, 2020
Some changes to our baseline forecast are likely needed.
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Dec 28, 2020
The key data will be initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits; they likely rose.
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Dec 28, 2020
There is pent-up demand for activities consumers have been avoiding, and higher-income households have banked considerable financial firepower.
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Dec 24, 2020
We will return on Monday, December 28.
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Dec 24, 2020
The U.K. and European Union agree to a trade deal but it won't eliminate disruptions.
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Dec 23, 2020
Trump throws wrench in stimulus agreement while there was a flurry of U.S. economic data.
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Dec 23, 2020
The composition of growth is also shifting as rebuilding inventories will provide a big boost.
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Dec 23, 2020
Trends in hospital strain showed strong correlation with November employment growth.
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Dec 22, 2020
The estimate of these assets this year bodes well for 2021's capital spending and hiring activity.
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Dec 22, 2020
Consumer confidence index drops in December, but there's no change to the spending forecast.
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Dec 22, 2020
Vaccine approvals reduced the greatest risks for the Canadian economy, but new risks are appearing.
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Dec 22, 2020
An increase in the labor force participation rate next year will keep the unemployment rate high.
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Dec 22, 2020
Sales are still among the strongest since 2006, and lean inventories aren't hurting too much.
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Dec 21, 2020
September's 12-month moving average of 2.5% was the lowest since June 2010's 1.6%.
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Dec 21, 2020
The latest round of stimulus will probably require us to make minor tweaks to the baseline forecast.
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Dec 21, 2020
Consumer confidence and home sales highlight a holiday-shortened week.
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Dec 21, 2020
Our methodology for finding a suitable economic replacement.
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Dec 21, 2020
The agreement on additional fiscal stimulus is encouraging given signs of a waning recovery.
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