Setup News Ticker
Nov 24, 2022

Happy Thanksgiving
Our U.S. offices are closed for the holiday; we will return Monday, November 28. Analysis
Nov 23, 2022

Economic Roundup: Some Good News and Some Bad
U.S. economic data come in mixed to end the holiday-shortened week. Analysis
Nov 23, 2022

U.S. Weekly Preview
The U.S. economic calendar will pick up significantly next week. Analysis
Nov 22, 2022

Economic Roundup: Soft Data Point to Further Cooling of U.S. Economy
The Philly Fed's Nonmanufacturing Survey points to a contraction in activity for November. Analysis
Nov 22, 2022

U.S. Employment Outlook: Job Gains Easing
Weak productivity growth is raising concerns, since productivity growth along with a growing labor force can help stem inflation pressures. Analysis
Nov 22, 2022

Worker Shortage Complicates Fed's Inflation Fight
Millions of missing workers will hold up the labor supply recovery, which could indirectly mute the impact of monetary policy. Analysis
Nov 22, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Waiting With Bated Breath
A barrage of indicators suggested the economy is softening as chances of a Fed misstep worsen. Analysis
Nov 22, 2022

Canada Risk Matrix: The Nervous Wait
The negative effects of the central bank's policy actions on the broader economy will likely become more evident in the first half of 2023. Analysis
Nov 21, 2022

Economic Roundup: Trouble on the Railroad
The threat of a rail strike is back, but Congress can intervene after the Thanksgiving break. Analysis
Nov 21, 2022

This Week in the Economy
Most leading economic indicators point to a coming recession, but while recession risks are uncomfortably high and the economy will have a tough 2023, our baseline outlook remains recession free as inflation moderates, consumers do their part, and businesses remain reluctant to lay off workers. Analysis
Nov 21, 2022

Why U.S. Oil Production Lags Demand
Fundamental changes in global energy markets will keep per-barrel prices unusually high, giving firms confidence to pick up the pace of capital expenditures. Analysis
Nov 18, 2022

Canada Weekly: Extreme House-Price Makeover
We dive into Montreal's runaway house prices since the pandemic. Analysis
Nov 18, 2022

Economic Roundup: Existing-Home Sales Still Searching for a Bottom
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index is sending an ominous message on the risk of recession. Analysis
Nov 18, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 18, 2022
We expect new-home sales to have fallen in October, wiping out nearly all of August's sharp increase. Analysis
Nov 18, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: G-20 Agrees on Price Stability, Food Security
The summit also condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Analysis
Nov 17, 2022

Economic Roundup: Jobless Claims, Multifamily Activity Defiant Amid Uncertainty
Jobless claims fell, while multifamily activity is holding its own. Analysis
Nov 17, 2022

The Implication of Tech Layoffs for U.S. Jobless Claims
The headlines about job cuts in tech are eye-grabbing, but the impact on jobless claims will underwhelm. Analysis
Nov 17, 2022

Multifamily Housing Punches Above Weight
U.S. residential construction showcase a bifurcation between sluggish single-family and growing multifamily activity. Analysis
Nov 16, 2022

Economic Roundup: A Bit Brighter for U.S. GDP
October data boosted our high-frequency GDP estimate for the fourth quarter. Analysis
Nov 16, 2022

New Data Raise Q4 U.S. High-Frequency GDP
Incoming data this week have raised our estimate. Analysis
Nov 16, 2022

Strong U.S. Retail Sales Growth Bypasses Holiday Segments
October gains were concentrated in spending segments such as gasoline stations, restaurants, grocery stores and vehicle dealers. Analysis
Nov 16, 2022

U.S. Supply-Chain Stress Index Update
A reversal (and then some) from the latest increase in the index is due in the coming months. Analysis
Nov 16, 2022

Inflation Hits Consumers Hard
U.S. households are raiding the piggy bank to keep spending; it is uncertain how long they can keep that going. Analysis
Nov 15, 2022

Economic Roundup: More Signs Point to U.S. Inflation Easing
The U.S. producer price index sends a similar message as the consumer price index. Analysis
Nov 15, 2022

Easing of Inflation Varies Across U.S. Regions
October's CPI moderation brought sighs of relief, but they were more muted in the West and Northeast. Analysis
Nov 15, 2022

The Macroeconomic Cost of Climate Inaction
The U.S. economy can be decarbonized at a modest economic cost provided that the transition begins soon and occurs gradually. Analysis
Nov 14, 2022

Economic Roundup: Big Week for U.S. Data
Later this week will see the release of important housing and consumer data in the U.S. Analysis
Nov 14, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: A Week of Surprises
Midterm election results and the latest numbers on inflation were unexpected, but their implications for policymaking are limited. Analysis
Nov 14, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 84—Inflation and the Midterms
Will the Fed keep rates higher for longer? Analysis
Nov 11, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 11, 2022
A slew of data will arrive next week including PPI, retail sales and the housing market. Analysis
Nov 11, 2022

Economic Roundup: Inflation Remains Top Concern
Despite some reason for optimism on the U.S. inflation front, global data are not so rosy. Analysis
Nov 11, 2022

First Look at Q4 U.S. High-Frequency GDP Model
A more-timely estimate of the economy's current growth rate and direction. Analysis
Nov 11, 2022

Canada Weekly: Debt Laden With Fewer Savings
Consumer debt is on the rise as household savings fall. Analysis
Nov 11, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S.-China Meeting Could Have Limited Impact
Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping plan to meet ahead of the G-20 summit. Analysis
Nov 11, 2022

Signs of the U.S. Inflationary Fever Breaking
Used vehicles and health insurance subtracted from the CPI in October, while relief in other CPI components is forthcoming. Analysis
Nov 10, 2022

Economic Roundup: Moving in the Right Direction
The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% in October, less than we or the consensus anticipated. Analysis
Nov 10, 2022

Far From Declaring Victory
October's CPI report will not alter the Fed's near-term plans. Analysis
Nov 10, 2022

Capital Market View: Rates Weigh on Lending
Worldwide investment-grade corporate bonds see 30% dip. Analysis
Nov 10, 2022

U.S. Road to Recession: Cautiously Optimistic
The economic expansion is highly vulnerable to anything that might go wrong. Analysis
Nov 09, 2022

Economic Roundup: How the U.S. Baseline Forecast Changed Between October and November
There were notable changes to global oil prices and U.S. house prices. Analysis
Nov 09, 2022

Macroeconomic Implications of the Midterm Elections
If the U.S. economy enters a recession next year, don't expect a divided government to provide economic support. Analysis
Nov 08, 2022

Economic Roundup: Midterm Election Day
A Republican House win would mean no further fiscal legislation is passed before 2024. Analysis
Nov 08, 2022

Preview of the 2022 U.S. Midterm Elections
Republicans are poised to sweep both the House and Senate on Election Day. Analysis
Nov 08, 2022

Pandemic, Transformed
The triple threat of COVID-19, the flu and RSV poses risks to the U.S. labor market. Analysis
Nov 07, 2022

U.S. Credit Card Lending Spigot Tightens in Third Quarter
Lending standards for credits card have tightened significantly, though demand remains strong. Analysis
Nov 07, 2022

Economic Roundup: Global Businesses Remain Uneasy
Our global business survey suggests that recession risks remain uncomfortably high. Analysis
Nov 07, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: A Big Week
After another jumbo rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the central bank's chairman set new parameters for the path forward. Analysis
Nov 07, 2022

Climate Tracker: Major Emitters Not United
Progress to date, as measured by greenhouse gas emissions and by pledges and commitments for future action, has been limited. Analysis
Nov 07, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, November 7, 2022
We expect headline CPI to move higher. Analysis
Nov 07, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 83—Debating Jobs and Forecasts
The unemployment rate rose in October, and that's what the Fed wanted to see. Analysis
Nov 04, 2022

Economic Roundup: A Tale of Two Surveys
Payrolls increased more than expected, but household employment dropped. Analysis
Nov 04, 2022

U.S. Jobs Report Cont'd: October Update
The strength of the U.S. labor market will keep the Fed from making dovish turns anytime soon. Analysis
Nov 04, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Brazilian Elections Not Disputed
The incumbent president conceded and urged his supporters to respect the vote. Analysis
Nov 04, 2022

Canada Weekly: Avoiding Investors' Ire
Without energy, Canada's current account deficit will garner more concern. Analysis
Nov 04, 2022

Regional Inflation Shifts Arrive in Time for Midterms
Mountain West costs are now rising most quickly, but the implications for elections remain murky. Analysis
Nov 03, 2022

Economic Roundup: Final Thoughts Ahead of October U.S. Employment
We look for the economy to have added 175,000 jobs, on net, in October. Analysis
Nov 03, 2022

U.S. Inflation Tracker Update: Upward Pressure Persists
Labor demand continues to exceed labor supply, or the labor force. Analysis
Nov 03, 2022

U.S. Rental Vacancy Rate Will Be a Headwind to Inflation
Historically, the higher the rental vacancy rate, the slower rental inflation has been. Analysis
Nov 02, 2022

Economic Roundup: Slower But Higher?
After four consecutive 75-basis point rate hikes, the Fed hints at a slowdown. Analysis
Nov 01, 2022

Economic Roundup: Mixed Messages About U.S. Soft Landing
The ISM manufacturing survey had some favorable details, but the JOLTS did not. Analysis
Nov 01, 2022

JOLTS Raises Risk of Harder Push by Fed
The supply-demand imbalance in the U.S. labor market worsened in September, raising the risk of a hard landing for the economy. Analysis
Nov 01, 2022

More Than Meets the Eye in U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey
The Fed will cheer certain aspects of the survey, but the outlook for monetary policy is unchanged. Analysis
Oct 31, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Check Engine Light On
Data released last week point to trouble for important engines of U.S. economic growth. Analysis
Oct 31, 2022

Economic Roundup: Quiet Start to Busy Week
We expect that the Federal Reserve will press on with another 75-basis point rate hike. Analysis
Oct 31, 2022

Weakening U.S. Capex Intentions Continue Into Fourth Quarter
Regional Fed surveys point to further weakness in core capital-goods shipments. Analysis
Oct 31, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 31, 2022
We'll see how tight the labor market is with the JOLTS and unemployment data. Analysis
Oct 31, 2022

Nowcasting Recession With Google Searches
At the end of October, the signals of a U.S. downturn are small but rising compared with the previous nine months. Analysis
Oct 31, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 82—Multifamily Housing Outlook
U.S. wage growth overall has begun to cool in a trend that could help slow inflation. Analysis
Oct 28, 2022

Economic Roundup: Fast and Furious
The Federal Reserve will remain uncomfortable with the pace of wage and price gains in the U.S. Analysis
Oct 28, 2022

Canada Weekly: Recession and the Thomas Theorem
How should beliefs frame our understanding of recession? Analysis
Oct 28, 2022

U.S. Residential Construction Set to Pause
Housing market conditions will continue deteriorate as higher mortgage rates weaken demand. Analysis
Oct 28, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: China's Xi Secures Third Term
While the outcome was expected, it is unclear how the government will tackle the near-term problems. Analysis
Oct 28, 2022

U.S. House Prices Drop as Mortgage Rates Climb
Prices will continue to fall nearly 10% from their recent peaks by the end of 2025. Analysis
Oct 27, 2022

Economic Roundup: Recession Averted, For Now
The increase in third-quarter GDP quashes any fears that the economy is in recession. Analysis
Oct 27, 2022

Unbanked Rate Declines, Aided by Fiscal Stimulus
A third of U.S. households that were newly banked last year opened an account to facilitate receipt of government payments—stimulus checks or unemployment benefits. Analysis
Oct 26, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Housing Market Takes It on the Chin
New-home sales are rapidly slowing as interest rates continue to erode affordability. Analysis
Oct 26, 2022

Capital Market View: Moral Hazard in U.S. HY Corporate Bond Market?
The relationship between the VIX and high-yield spreads has broken down since the pandemic. Analysis
Oct 26, 2022

Q3 U.S. GDP: The Final Countdown
The gain in quarterly growth will be misleading. Analysis
Oct 26, 2022

This Week in the Economy: Catching a Break
The coming year will be a difficult one for the U.S. economy; just how difficult depends on whether the economy is able to catch a break. Analysis
Oct 26, 2022

What to Make of 'Technical Recessions' Across States
No regional economy is truly contracting, but a few post-pandemic patterns are changing. Analysis
Oct 25, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Not Anxious About Recession
Confidence is holding up and not flashing red about a downturn. Analysis
Oct 25, 2022

Global Outlook: Europe Will Go Down First
While the world economy is still expected to skirt recession, some regions are already entering a downturn. Analysis
Oct 25, 2022

U.S. Consumer Spending Still Distorted
There will be a further shift back toward old patterns, but not all the changes that took place because of the pandemic will reverse. Analysis
Oct 25, 2022

Canada Housing Market Outlook: Chill in the Air
The combination of increased borrowing costs, elevated inflation, and a softening labour market spells the end for the housing boom. Analysis
Oct 25, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Changing Behaviors
Consumers are backing off housing and goods purchases. Analysis
Oct 25, 2022

U.S. Employment Outlook: Still Got It
The period of above-trend job growth driven by the recovery from the pandemic is drawing to a close. Analysis
Oct 24, 2022

Economic Roundup: Whirlwind in U.K. Continues
Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak is now poised to become the next U.K.'s prime minister. Analysis
Oct 24, 2022

Capital Market View: Under the Magnifying Glass
Despite worsening indicators, the loss exposure of U.S. banks is moderate. Analysis
Oct 24, 2022

Q3 U.S. GDP Tracking Edges Higher, but Details Are Worrisome
Our model now estimates quarterly growth at an annualized rate of 2.4%, thanks to trade. Analysis
Oct 24, 2022

U.S. Midterm Election: Divided Government Ahead
We evaluated 14 economic and political variables, and they overwhelmingly point to a Republican takeover of the House. Analysis
Oct 24, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 81—Consumer Sentiment and a Sentimental Farewell
U.S. house prices have declined quickly in many places; are sellers capitulating in a weakening market? Analysis
Oct 21, 2022

Economic Roundup: What We Learned This Week
U.S. housing feeling the pain of higher rates and it is not over. Analysis
Oct 21, 2022

U.S. B2B Tracker: Building Activity Slows Quickly
The effects of the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening cycle are rippling their way through the U.S. economy. Analysis
Oct 21, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.K. Heads for New Prime Minister
This will be the third PM for the country this year. Analysis
Oct 21, 2022

Canada Weekly: Oil Update
Canadian GDP will continue to weaken, with trade and oil particular letdowns. Analysis
Oct 20, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.K. in Disarray
Political uncertainty will weigh on U.K. financial conditions and its economic outlook. Analysis
Oct 20, 2022

U.S. Credit Outlook: Market Slows, Recession Risk Grows
As inflation persists, there's concern that overextended lower-income borrowers may push up delinquency and default rates. Analysis
Oct 17, 2022

Economic Roundup: More on the September U.S. CPI
Goods disinflation is here but not for services, giving the Fed a headache. Analysis
Oct 17, 2022

Capital Market View: Goods Disinflation Is Here
But services inflation is sticky and is accelerating. Analysis
Oct 17, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 17, 2022
Our baseline forecast is still for the Fed to engineer a soft landing and the economy to skirt a recession.

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