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Sep 29, 2020

Investment-Grade Bond Offerings Set September Record
This year's $1,794 trillion has already topped 2017's zenith of $1.509 trillion. Analysis
Sep 29, 2020

Economic Roundup: Getting a Clearer View of Q3 U.S. GDP
Net exports will be a drag but inventories will add around 5 percentage points to GDP growth. Analysis
Sep 29, 2020

How Long Could a U.S. Recovery Take?
Historical data imply a recovery to pre-pandemic employment would take two to nine years. Analysis
Sep 29, 2020

Will New Businesses Drive U.S. Job Growth?
Most startup applications in 2020 are from firms unlikely to make hires in the near term. Analysis
Sep 29, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Bleak Employment Indicators at Odds With Rosy Housing Data
In a light calendar week of economic data, housing indicators shine bright. Analysis
Sep 28, 2020

Surging Junk Bond Issuance Overstates Growth of High-Yield Debt
January-August revealed a 30.8% annual contraction by newly rated loans from high-yield issuers. Analysis
Sep 28, 2020

Economic Roundup: A Hectic Week Ahead
A bunch of key U.S. economic data and the first presidential debate. Analysis
Sep 28, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 28, 2020
The third revision of second-quarter GDP is likely to be uneventful. Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

Capital Spending Tops Earlier Expectations
Core capital goods orders rose for a fourth straight month in August. Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

Economic Roundup: Some Parts of Business Investment Doing Better Than Others
Core capital goods shipments and orders boost our Q3 GDP tracking estimate. Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Not an Encouraging Trend
The good news is that there hasn't been a significant weakening, even as the fiscal stimulus has run its course. Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

Canada Weekly: How Bad Is Unemployment?
Permanent job losses are taking the place of temporary layoffs. Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Restrictions Returning to Europe
COVID-19 is making a comeback. Analysis
Sep 25, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: New Jobs Support Coming to U.K.
The British government announced a much-awaited extension to the furlough scheme. Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

Bond Issuance Boom Led by Refinancings That Boost Liquidity
In this low-rate environment, companies opt to lengthen maturities at rock-bottom costs. Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. New-Home Sales Jump to Highest Since 2006
Low mortgage rates and pent-up demand continue to push sales higher. Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

Speed Trap Ahead for Autos
Recent growth in U.S. used-vehicle prices and new vehicle sales is likely to slow in the coming months. Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

Fiscal Risks for Rural America
Rural economies will suffer most if Congress fails to support state and local governments. Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

State Economies Warmed in Summer but Never Caught Fire
U.S. regional labor market data for August showed progress but a long road back to normalcy. Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

State Economies Warmed This Summer
U.S. regional labor market data for August showed progress but a long road back to normalcy. Analysis
Sep 24, 2020

The Macroeconomic Consequences: Trump vs. Biden
The U.S. presidential candidates could not have more different governing approaches and policies, especially when it comes to economic policy. Analysis
Sep 23, 2020

Scary Markets Might Frighten Congress Into Boosting Fiscal Stimulus
The passage of a fiscal stimulus package may require the spur of another 7% drop. Analysis
Sep 23, 2020

Economic Roundup: Flash PMIs Mixed in U.S., Rough in Europe
The economic calendar heats up on Thursday. Analysis
Sep 23, 2020

U.S. Employment Outlook: Attenuated Recovery
The country will not return to its pre-COVID-19 employment level until the end of 2023. Analysis
Sep 22, 2020

Housing, Manufacturing Question Claims of Major Deceleration
The Richmond district has risen to 19.7 points after a bottom of -65.6 points in April. Analysis
Sep 22, 2020

Economic Roundup: Timber!
Sharp decline in lumber prices will ease cost pressures homebuilders were grappling with. Analysis
Sep 22, 2020

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Fiscal Follies Pose Significant Threat
With each passing week the potential for another, but much needed, U.S. fiscal stimulus has dimmed. Analysis
Sep 22, 2020

U.S. Financial Outlook: Riding High on Equities
Stock market values should gradually decline in the near term, followed by a gradual recovery. Analysis
Sep 22, 2020

Corporate Debt Growth Slows From Second Quarter's Unsustainable Advance
In the not too distant future, a reduction in the outstandings of corporate debt is likely. Analysis
Sep 21, 2020

Economic Roundup: When You Come to a Fork in the Road, You Take It
Odds of fiscal stimulus ahead of the election are fading. Analysis
Sep 21, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Recovery Cooling With the Weather
Data released last week offer no clear evidence that the economy's recovery accelerated. Analysis
Sep 21, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 21, 2020
We expect another gain in existing-home sales. Analysis
Sep 21, 2020

U.S. State and Local Government Shortfall Update
The economic outlook has marginally improved. Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

M2's Liftoff Reflects Unsustainable Accumulation of Cash
The current cash assets of businesses and households exceed what they will hold long term. Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed Searching for New North Star
The Fed is deemphasizing the unemployment rate gap, but maybe it should turn to prime EPOP. Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Reason for Optimism
The labor market continues to heal from the crisis. Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

Canada Weekly: New Motor Vehicle Sales Gain Ground
The industry is making a recovery after being rocked by the pandemic. Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

Fed Still Needs a Guiding Star for the Labor Market
Policymakers should focus on the prime-age employment to population ratio, not unemployment. Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Brexit Talks Remain at Cliff's Edge
U.K. prime minister took a few steps back, but the lines he has drawn will be quickly crossed. Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Fed, ECB Remain Dovish
The two central banks will use less direct measures to support economies. Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

Americans Clocked Out and Dined Out in Early September
Regional labor markets are exhibiting fatigue, but restaurants show signs of life. Analysis
Sep 18, 2020

CECL 2020Q3: Moody's Analytics Economic Scenarios
We review changes to our economic scenarios that could impact loss allowance estimates for Q3. Analysis
Sep 17, 2020

High-Yield Refinancings Transcend Fast-Rising Defaults
Credit quality has stabilized as debt has moved to lower interest rates and longer maturities. Analysis
Sep 17, 2020

Economic Roundup: Layoffs Decline but Remain Alarmingly High
With people exhausting their benefits, continuing claims dropped sharply last week. Analysis
Sep 17, 2020

U.S. Holiday Sales Should Outperform the Economic Environment
The risks remain very high. Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

Global Outlook: A Divergent Recovery
China's V-shape rebound sets itself apart, but downside risks predominate. Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

Like Late 1998, Interest Rates May Again Be Unsustainably Low
The Fed was accommodative then despite Q3 and Q4 GDP increases of 5.1% and 6.6%. Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

Economic Roundup: Fed's New Forward Guidance Launches Without a Hitch
There are still some details to be ironed out but the guidance didn't rattle markets. Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

Food for Thought on U.S. Retail Sales
Restaurant spending helped the numbers in August. Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

U.S. Inflation Accelerates
Prices increased across a wide range of product categories in September. Analysis
Sep 16, 2020

U.S. Household Income Was Strong in 2019
Poverty fell as median household income jumped; health coverage expanded. Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

High-Tech Manufacturing Output at Record High
The high-tech component of manufacturing advanced by 1.1% monthly in August to a record high. Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

Economic Roundup: Homing In On Q3 U.S. GDP
Industrial production and import prices nudge our tracking estimate higher but retail sales could disappoint. Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

Costs Mount as Fires Rage in the U.S. West
The 2020 fire season will rank as one of the most destructive in recorded history. Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

Q3 Tracking Inches Higher
After industrial production and import prices, our model puts U.S. GDP at 26.4% annualized in the current quarter. Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Losing Traction
The recovery has slowed as federal stimulus has waned and COVID-19 cases remain high. Analysis
Sep 15, 2020

U.S. Federal Outlook: Presidential Election Update
Moody's Analytics predicts Biden will narrowly win the Electoral College. Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

High-Yield Issuance Booms Alongside Tighter Business Loan Standards
Loan standards are tighter than they've been since the end of 2008. Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

Economic Roundup: A Busy Week Ahead
This week is packed with a Fed meeting, Congress returning to session, and the release of key data. Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 14, 2020
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits likely increased in the week ended September 12. Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

This Week in the COVID Crisis
The economy is operating 20% below where it was prior to when the pandemic struck in March. Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

FOMC Preview: No Rush
New forward guidance is unlikely this week; the Fed will wait until November. Analysis
Sep 14, 2020

How Far from Normal? Moody's Analytics & CNN Business on the U.S. Economic Recovery: Q&A
We answer additional questions submitted in response to our recent webinar. Analysis
Sep 11, 2020

Economic Roundup: August CPI Eases Earlier Deflationary Concerns
After three straight increases in core CPI, deflation seems less of a threat than in the spring. Analysis
Sep 11, 2020

Canada Weekly: Where To?
Looking at how Canadians are moving around the country can provide insights on the recovery. Analysis
Sep 11, 2020

U.S. Jobless Claims Show Recovery Has a Long Way to Go
Initial and continuing claims in regular programs have improved; the bigger picture is not so rosy. Analysis
Sep 11, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Brexit Talks Veer Off Course
The week's events will hinder future negotiations. Analysis
Sep 11, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Outside of Asia, Momentum Fades
Fiscal and monetary support is key to avoiding a retrenchment. Analysis
Sep 10, 2020

Corporate Bond Issuance Soars as Equities Sink
The issuance of US$-denominated corporate bonds has flourished throughout much of 2020. Analysis
Sep 10, 2020

Economic Roundup: Behind the September Baseline Forecast
Stronger GDP growth and a lower unemployment rate, but we are still counting on more stimulus. Analysis
Sep 10, 2020

Real-Time Data Add to Picture of State Labor Markets
Google Mobility, Homebase and U.S. jobless claims help meet the need for timely regional data. Analysis
Sep 10, 2020

Last Year Was Good for U.S. Consumers
The Consumer Expenditure Survey shows health in income growth and mostly conservative spending. Analysis
Sep 09, 2020

Election-Year Worries Subside, Stocks Recover
The market value of U.S. common stock partly recovered with a 2.01% increase. Analysis
Sep 09, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Market Open for Business, but Challenges Remain
U.S. job openings jumped in July to the highest level since February. Analysis
Sep 08, 2020

Election-Year Risks Now Weigh on Equities
The market value of U.S. common stock fell 7.1%. Analysis
Sep 08, 2020

Economic Roundup: Mixed Trends for U.S. Small Businesses
U.S. small business conditions point to weak investment and wage growth. Analysis
Sep 08, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Can't Find the Accelerator
Employment data are improving, but the recovery is stalled amid COVID-19 infections. Analysis
Sep 08, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 8, 2020
We continue to expect employment to be down by about 10 million jobs from its pre-pandemic peak at year's end. Analysis
Sep 04, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Lawmakers Still Need to Act
Failure to pass stimulus now is a policy error. Analysis
Sep 04, 2020

Canada Weekly: Working Papers
Employment insurance is changing, and three programs are being introduced. Analysis
Sep 04, 2020

Economic Roundup: Convalescent U.S. Job Market Still Has Ways to Go
The U.S. unemployment rate fell more than expected to 8.4%. Analysis
Sep 04, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Escalating Tensions Could Harm EU-Turkey Cooperation
EU states agreed to impose sanctions if Ankara refuses to withdraw from the Eastern Mediterranean. Analysis
Sep 04, 2020

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: France Spends Big as COVID Makes Comeback
France will add €100 billion to its budget in the next two years. Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Tax Worries May Have Stoked Equity Market's Dive
The market value of U.S. common stock plummeted by 3.56%, or $1.3 trillion. Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Market Growth Ongoing, But Slowing
We look for a 1.1 million increase in nonfarm employment and a 9.9% unemployment rate. Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Final Thoughts Ahead of August Employment
A disappointment could light a fire under lawmakers in Washington to pass stimulus. Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Can U.S. College Towns Make the Grade?
COVID-19 invades campuses, and risks rise for university-dependent economies. Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Canada Outlook: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
A brutal second quarter gives way to an initially strong rebound, but the momentum quickly fades. Analysis
Sep 03, 2020

Corporate Bonds' Partial Recovery Lags Equities' New Zenith
In part, corporate credit reflects some equity market subindexes remaining well under record highs. Analysis
Sep 02, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Hiring Hits Late-Summer Lull
The ADP National Employment Report points toward weak August hiring. Analysis
Sep 02, 2020

U.S. Factory Orders Shave a Bit Off Q3 GDP Estimate
The decline in inventories is larger than previously thought. Analysis
Sep 01, 2020

U.S. Road to Recovery: Labor Reallocation
Permanent layoffs in virus-sensitive industries have rapidly increased. Analysis
Sep 01, 2020

ISM Survey, Base Metal Prices Signal Manufacturing Upturn
The Moody's Analytics industrial metals price index rose for a fourth consecutive month. Analysis
Sep 01, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Factory Production on the Upswing
U.S. manufacturing continues to recover from the recession, and the improvement is broadening. Analysis
Sep 01, 2020

Permanent Layoffs Sting Some Industries Harder Than Others
The COVID-19 crisis will do lasting damage to the U.S. labor market. Analysis
Aug 31, 2020

Persistently Low Fed Funds Rate Favors Lower Default Rate
After the seven years of a low rate following 2009, the default rate dropped from 14.7% to 1.6%. Analysis
Aug 31, 2020

Economic Roundup: Slow Start to Hectic Week
Slew of key U.S. economic data will be released and could provide color on recession risks. Analysis
Aug 31, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Where Do We Go From Here?
The economic recovery hinges on the prevalence of the virus and the next fiscal stimulus package. Analysis
Aug 31, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 31, 2020
The ADP National Employment Report will help to gauge private employment. Analysis
Aug 31, 2020

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: School's in Session, for Now
Our high-frequency GDP model now has third-quarter GDP tracking 29.2% at an annualized rate.

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