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Sep 22, 2023

Canada Weekly: Consumer Credit Crisis on the Horizon?
Borrowing costs are up, top-line growth is down, and consumer debt burdens are getting heavier. Analysis
Sep 22, 2023

Economic Roundup: Turning Up the Heat
The United Auto Workers union launched additional strikes on Friday. Analysis
Sep 22, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 22, 2023
Builders have stayed busy given the dearth of existing homes being listed for sale. Analysis
Sep 22, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Prisoner Swap
The U.S. and Iran struck an agreement that brought home five Americans but sparked controversy over the release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian oil revenues. Analysis
Sep 21, 2023

The LEI Falls Again, but the Economy Remains on Solid Footing
Sentiment metrics were a large weight on the index in August, but the hard data tell a different story. Analysis
Sep 21, 2023

The LEI Fell Again in August but the Economy Remains on Solid Footing
Sentiment metrics were a large weight on the index, but the hard data tell a different story. Analysis
Sep 21, 2023

Economic Roundup: On Pause
The Bank of England decided to pause rate hikes following better-than-expected inflation numbers. Analysis
Sep 20, 2023

Economic Roundup: Is This the Summit?
In an expected move, the FOMC did not lift the fed funds rate's target range at September's meeting. Analysis
Sep 20, 2023

High Energy Prices Hurt U.S. Consumer Budgets Last Year
Risks are high that fuel costs will again hurt lower-income households. Analysis
Sep 19, 2023

Economic Roundup: Shutdown Standoff
The clock is ticking on the October 1 deadline for the U.S. government to avert a shutdown. Analysis
Sep 19, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Summer Ends Hot
Core CPI, retail sales and industrial production came in stronger than expected for August. Analysis
Sep 19, 2023

U.S. Holiday Sales Likely to Disappoint
The biggest weight on retail growth is the shifting mix in consumer spending. Analysis
Sep 19, 2023

Where Things Will Be Made: Supply-Chain Shifts and the Great Decoupling
U.S.-China decoupling is underway, but only a small cohort of economies stands to gain. Analysis
Sep 19, 2023

U.S. Risk Matrix: Less Concern About Crypto, IMBs
the psychological effect for borrowers making their first student loan payments in over three years leads to an even greater pullback in spending than our simulations through the U.S. macroeconomic model would suggest. Analysis
Sep 18, 2023

Economic Roundup: Fed's Up
In addition to Wednesday's FOMC meeting, we await a handful of housing data this week. Analysis
Sep 18, 2023

U.S. Outlook: The Consumer Firewall
The economy is at full employment and enjoying stronger GDP and slower inflation. This should continue as long as consumers keep doing their part, and we expect they will. There are threats, but the consumer remains resilient. Analysis
Sep 15, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 15, 2023
There will be a spotlight on the housing market next week, when we expect to see a slip in homebuilder confidence. Analysis
Sep 15, 2023

Economic Roundup: United Auto Workers Hit the Picket Line
UAW launched ‘staggered' strikes against the Big Three U.S. automakers on Friday. Analysis
Sep 15, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S. Government Shutdown Watch
A new trade dispute is brewing between the EU and China. Analysis
Sep 15, 2023

UAW Jump-Starts 'Staggered' Strike Strategy
The impasse in the U.S. auto industry adds to recent labor strife, but effects on the wider economy remain uncertain. Analysis
Sep 14, 2023

Economic Roundup: ECB Hikes Again…Will the Fed?
The ECB lifted policy rates by a quarter point, but we do not expect the Fed follows suit next week. Analysis
Sep 13, 2023

Economic Roundup: August Inflation Tainted by Runup in Energy Prices
Energy boosted U.S. inflation last month, while an unusual Treasury surplus was due to the Supreme Court. Analysis
Sep 13, 2023

Energy Taints U.S. Inflation Report in August
The Fed will look past this bout of higher energy prices ahead of its September meeting. Analysis
Sep 13, 2023

U.S. Inflation Strongest since June 2022
Still, we are sticking to our baseline assumption that the Fed is done with interest-rate hikes for the current tightening cycle. Analysis
Sep 13, 2023

U.S. Household Debt Tracker: Here We Go Again
Delinquencies on auto loans have risen to their highest level since the Great Recession and have refused to take a step back. Analysis
Sep 13, 2023

Is U.S. GDP Accelerating?
Our third-quarter high-frequency growth estimate rose from 4.1% to 4.4% annualized. Analysis
Sep 13, 2023

The U.S. CRE Correction Is Just Getting Started
Commercial real estate prices are set to fall 14.4% peak to trough by 2025. Analysis
Sep 13, 2023

Immigration to the Rescue
Recent growth in the U.S. labor force can largely be attributed to foreign-born workers. Analysis
Sep 13, 2023

Inflation Undermines Household Income Again in 2022
The U.S. poverty rate held nearly steady. Analysis
Sep 12, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Small Businesses Still Face a Rocky Road
The NFIB's small business optimism index continues to reflect a difficult operating environment. Analysis
Sep 12, 2023

U.S. Road to Recession: Labor Market Loosens
While job growth appears to be slowing gracefully, wage growth is still too high to bring price inflation down to the Fed's 2% target. Analysis
Sep 11, 2023

Economic Roundup: Looking Beyond Monday
The slow start to the week is causing all eyes to zero in on Wednesday's CPI inflation report. Analysis
Sep 11, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Factory Orders Down, Auto Strike Looms
A drop in orders last week—primarily due to the aircraft segment—was less severe than anticipated. Analysis
Sep 11, 2023

Inflation Distorts the Move Toward Pre-Pandemic Spending Patterns
Total U.S. consumer spending grew 9% in 2022, according to the latest Consumer Expenditure Survey. Analysis
Sep 11, 2023

U.S. Banking Conditions Tracker: Still Under Pressure
Most disconcerting is the prospect for more defaults on commercial real estate loans, which are in train. Analysis
Sep 08, 2023

Economic Roundup: Closer to Fine?
With inflation beginning to roll over, the Fed will pause hikes, but rates will stay high. Analysis
Sep 08, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 8, 2023
We expect the strongest monthly increase in the headline CPI since June 2022. Analysis
Sep 08, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S., EU Pursue of Tariff Reform
The Myanmar crisis made it to the top of the agenda at the ASEAN leaders' summit in Indonesia. Analysis
Sep 07, 2023

Economic Roundup: Mixed Messages on the U.S. Labor Market
The latest employment report showed some weakness, while UI claims remain quite low. Analysis
Sep 07, 2023

Revisionist History
A collision of two trends will weigh on future revisions to the U.S. August employment report. Analysis
Sep 06, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Economy Holding Its Ground
We continue to monitor for signs of a downturn, but incoming data have been promising. Analysis
Sep 05, 2023

Economic Roundup: Looking Beyond the Headline Declines
Volatile aircraft orders weighed on July factory orders, while new-vehicle sales have improved much from a year ago. Analysis
Sep 05, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Clearing Skies
The labor market data are softening, giving the Federal Reserve a better picture ahead of its September meeting. Analysis
Sep 05, 2023

U.S. Inflation Tracker: On Script, for Now
The fever is breaking, but consumer sentiment is still downbeat from a historical perspective. Analysis
Sep 05, 2023

Beyond the Volatility in U.S. Factory Orders
The drop in U.S. factory orders is deceptive, as it reflects volatility in aircraft orders. Analysis
Sep 05, 2023

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 127—Good Report
The August report on U.S. jobs has soft landing written all over it. Analysis
Sep 03, 2023

Happy Holiday
Our U.S. offices are closed Monday, September 4, for the Labor Day holiday. Analysis
Sep 01, 2023

Economic Roundup: It's a Cool Summer
August saw 187,000 jobs added in the U.S., though recent figures were revised downward significantly. Analysis
Sep 01, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 1, 2023
We expect second-quarter productivity to be revised down but remain on its improved trajectory. Analysis
Sep 01, 2023

U.S. Jobs Report Cont'd: Revisions Past and Future
Previous months' job gains were revised downward significantly and August's is usually revised up. Analysis
Sep 01, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: China's Influence Broadens in Central America
In addition, the release of China's latest ‘standard map' was met with objections closer to home. Analysis
Aug 31, 2023

Are U.S. Consumers Spending More Aggressively?
It is too soon to tell. Analysis
Aug 31, 2023

Economic Roundup: Eyes on the U.S. Labor Market
A bevy of employment data this week will be capped off with Friday's jobs report. Analysis
Aug 31, 2023

Investigating U.S. Labor Productivity Part I
In the coming weeks, we will analyze several factors influencing labor productivity in the U.S. Analysis
Aug 31, 2023

U.S. Consumers Put a Foot on the Gas
Our third-quarter high-frequency GDP estimate jumped to an annualized 4.9%. Analysis
Aug 31, 2023

An Initial Estimate of Hurricane Idalia's Cost
Despite the storm's intensity, its speed and path made it far less costly than it could have been. Analysis
Aug 31, 2023

Final Thoughts Ahead of August U.S. Employment
We look for the economy to have added 162,000 jobs, on net, in the latest month. Analysis
Aug 30, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. Economy Remains Healthy
U.S. GDP rose 2.1% in the second quarter, a touch slower than initially reported. Analysis
Aug 29, 2023

Economic Roundup: A Win for the Doves
The Beveridge curve and other new U.S. employment data flow the Fed's way. Analysis
Aug 29, 2023

Signs of a U.S. Labor Market Cooldown
Evidence of a slowing job market reduces odds of an interest-rate hike by the Fed in September. Analysis
Aug 29, 2023

U.S. State and Local Outlook: Complex Conditions
The budgeting environment will grow more complex as the economy cools. Analysis
Aug 29, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Stars Under Cloudy Skies
The Fed is committed to its 2% inflation target, even though the path ahead for monetary policy is uncertain. Analysis
Aug 28, 2023

Economic Roundup: Summer's Unofficial End
The U.S. economic calendar heats up in the final week of August. Analysis
Aug 28, 2023

Red Flags: U.S. Auto Credit Delinquencies Jump
Weakness in credit performance continued across the entire credit score strata. Analysis
Aug 28, 2023

Global Commodities Outlook: Oil Supply Going Nowhere
Demand is somewhat weak, which has kept prices from running higher. Analysis
Aug 25, 2023

Economic Roundup: A Lot of News, Not Much Data
Fed Chair Jerome Powell reasserts the central bank's resolve to bring inflation down to target. Analysis
Aug 25, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 25, 2023
We expect August employment growth to be the slowest since December 2020. Analysis
Aug 25, 2023

Hollywood Strike to Dent August Job Numbers
The SAG-AFTRA work stoppage has us lowering our forecast for August job growth by 18,000. Analysis
Aug 25, 2023

Canada Weekly: Going for Broke and Going Broke
Cross-industry performance helps explain the rise in both new business formation and bankruptcies. Analysis
Aug 25, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: BRICS to Pursue Expansion
Mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin's death highlighted Russia's internal political risks. Analysis
Aug 24, 2023

Economic Roundup: Above Potential
Our third-quarter high-frequency GDP estimate for the U.S. has growth at a healthy 3.9% annualized. Analysis
Aug 23, 2023

Economic Roundup: U.S. New-Home Market Further Benefits From Low Inventory
New-home sales increased in line with expectations in July. Analysis
Aug 23, 2023

Above Potential
Our third-quarter high-frequency GDP estimate for the U.S. has growth at a healthy 4% annualized. Analysis
Aug 23, 2023

Emerging Market View: A Late Summer Night's Wait
The specter of a Chinese property market crisis looms larger. Analysis
Aug 23, 2023

Substantial Downward Revision Looms for U.S. Job Numbers
Employment growth from April 2022 to March 2023 is weaker than previously assumed. Analysis
Aug 23, 2023

U.S. Credit Outlook: Tightening the Screws
Student loan payments are set to resume and will pressure some borrowers, particularly younger individuals. Analysis
Aug 22, 2023

Economic Roundup: More Than Meets the Eye
The U.S. economy remains resilient but economic data on Tuesday confirm that some weakness exists. Analysis
Aug 22, 2023

U.S. Banking Conditions Tracker: What's Next?
The financial system remains under extraordinary pressure, and the crisis may not be over. Analysis
Aug 22, 2023

U.S. Employment Outlook: The Fed May Pull This Off
The weakening of the labor market is underway and will continue through the end of the year. Analysis
Aug 21, 2023

Economic Roundup: A Quiet Week
The U.S. economic calendar was empty on Monday and will stay quiet this week. Analysis
Aug 21, 2023

U.S. Household Debt Tracker: A Matter of Concern?
Among loan types, delinquencies on auto loans and consumer finance loans have increased most. Analysis
Aug 21, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: The Story of Resilience
Consumers are spending and firms are producing, suggesting that the economy remains on solid footing. Analysis
Aug 18, 2023

Canada Weekly: The Coolest Basket
A dive into the CPI to see if all items have inflated in price relative to 2019. Analysis
Aug 18, 2023

Economic Roundup: No News Is Good News
U.S. economic data released Friday confirmed what we already knew about the labor market and service sector. Analysis
Aug 18, 2023

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, August 18, 2023
We expect new-home sales to have ticked higher in July as lack of resale inventory pushes homebuyers to support demand for new construction. Analysis
Aug 18, 2023

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S., Japan, South Korea Hold Summit
Javier Milei surprised pundits and markets by garnering the most votes in Argentina's presidential primary. Analysis
Aug 18, 2023

High U.S. Mortgage Rates a Double-Edged Sword for Housing Data
A frozen existing-home market pushes buyers to the new-home market. Analysis
Aug 17, 2023

Economic Roundup: Holding Steady
The 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest rate in 15 years as the economy rests on solid footing. Analysis
Aug 17, 2023

Is The U.S. House Price Correction Over?
Key to the outlook for home prices is the significant headwind posed by an unaffordable and overvalued housing market. Analysis
Aug 16, 2023

Economic Roundup: July Data Have Looked Good
In the U.S., housing starts and industrial production both picked up in July. Analysis
Aug 16, 2023

U.S. Economy Faces a Risky Ride if the UAW Strikes
The possibility of an auto work stoppage threatens to reverse recent vehicle price trends. Analysis
Aug 15, 2023

Dynamics of Slowing Inventory Growth
The dynamics of inventory investment have changed and rest primarily on expectations of cooling demand and structural issues. Analysis
Aug 15, 2023

Dynamics of Slowing U.S. Inventory Growth
The dynamics of inventory investment have changed and rest primarily on expectations of cooling demand and structural issues. Analysis
Aug 15, 2023

Economic Roundup: Consumers Spend, Builder Confidence Bends
Retail sales grew at a healthier-than-expected pace, pushing up our estimate of third-quarter GDP growth. Analysis
Aug 15, 2023

Running Hot
Our third-quarter high-frequency U.S. GDP growth estimate jumped to an annualized 4.3%. Analysis
Aug 15, 2023

U.S. Chartbook: Energy Spotlight
Rising oil prices complicate the disinflation picture. Analysis
Aug 15, 2023

Global Outlook: A Little Better, a Little Worse
After weathering a plethora of economic challenges in the past three years, one more exogenous shock could force us down a darker path. Analysis
Aug 14, 2023

Economic Roundup: Slow Start to a Busy Week
The U.S. economic calendar was empty on Monday but will quickly pick up. Analysis
Aug 14, 2023

U.S. Outlook: The Economy Finds Footing
The economic data have been uniformly good this summer, showing resilient growth and easing inflation; recession risks are thus receding, but risks remain. Analysis
Aug 14, 2023

Housing Market Scenario Update: A Theory of House Prices
Lack of available homes is propping up house prices as high mortgage rates weigh on affordability.

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