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Jan 18, 2020

Happy Holiday
Our U.S. offices will reopen after the Martin Luther King Jr. Day celebration. Analysis
Jan 17, 2020

Deepest Drop Since 2016 by Capacity Utilization Pressured Late-2019's Profits
December's low 77% capacity should increase to a higher rate during 2020. Analysis
Jan 17, 2020

Economic Roundup: A Weather Mess
A warm December boosts housing starts but dings industrial production. Analysis
Jan 17, 2020

Are Women Depressing U.S. Average Hourly Earnings?
Women's share of total employment is up, and that could be putting some downward pressure on wages. Analysis
Jan 17, 2020

Canada Weekly: 2020 Oil Outlook
The year looks brighter for the industry, but there are risks and uncertainty. Analysis
Jan 17, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Phase One Trade Deal Signed
The agreement is more symbolic than substantive; Phase Two will tackle more complex issues. Analysis
Jan 17, 2020

Equities Still Need Help From Flat to Lower Interest Rates
The market value of U.S. common stock soared by 28.4% from the end of 2018 to the end of 2019. Analysis
Jan 16, 2020

Economic Roundup: A Good Holiday Season For Retailers
December sales were 5.8% above their year-ago level and November's were up 3.3%. Analysis
Jan 16, 2020

U.S. Macro Outlook: The Expansion Continues
The higher asset prices rise, the more considerable the risks of a disorderly adjustment. Analysis
Jan 16, 2020

U.S. Credit Outlook: A Strong Performance
Consumer credit posted year-over-year balance growth of more than 4% in November. Analysis
Jan 16, 2020

High-Yield's Outlook Changes to Negative More Than Doubled Changes to Positive
Fourth-quarter 2019's outlook changes for U.S. investment-grade issuers included 21 reductions. Analysis
Jan 15, 2020

Economic Roundup: More Pomp Than Circumstance
Phase One trade deal does not alter our forecast. Analysis
Jan 15, 2020

The U.S and China Sign the Phase One Trade Deal
The agreement will do little to reverse the damage of the trade war, but it may deter escalation. Analysis
Jan 14, 2020

Small Business Cites Labor Quality as Biggest Problem
Labor quality problems tend to rise as unemployment falls. Analysis
Jan 14, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Core Inflation Comes in a Little Light
December's low inflation is helping to boost real wages, which should support consumer spending. Analysis
Jan 14, 2020

U.S. Regional Outlook: Demographic Leaders Expand Their Edge
The South continues to lead the way in population growth. Analysis
Jan 14, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Winter Is Coming...Eventually
Strength in the labor market and service economy is offsetting weakness in manufacturing. Analysis
Jan 13, 2020

C&I Loan Deceleration Bodes the Same for Corporate Debt
The relationship between C&I loan growth and business activity is not monotonic. Analysis
Jan 13, 2020

Economic Roundup: Markets Increase Bets on 2020 BoE Cut
U.K. GDP fell in November, boosting market expectations of a rate cut. Analysis
Jan 13, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 13, 2020
If the U.S.-China deal is signed, the devil will be in the details. Analysis
Jan 13, 2020

Our Fed Funds Forecast Removes a June Rate Cut
The case for another cut has weakened. Analysis
Jan 10, 2020

U.S. Jobs Report Suggests Economy Is Not Overheating
This record-long expansion is a marathon, not a 100-yard dash. Analysis
Jan 10, 2020

Economic Roundup: U.S. Labor Market Cools, Doesn't Freeze in December
The Fed still can stick to its plan to keep interest rates unchanged this year. Analysis
Jan 10, 2020

Canada Weekly: China's Effect on Trade
The arrest of a Huawei executive in Vancouver in December 2018 sparked a flare-up. Analysis
Jan 10, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: U.S.-Iran Tensions Cool a Little, but Threat Remains
The volatile relationship could again deteriorate, with serious consequences. Analysis
Jan 10, 2020

More Disappointing Than It Appears
The calendar boosted U.S. job growth in December but ignored average hourly earnings. Analysis
Jan 09, 2020

Overvalued Equities Increase Risk of Excessive Leveraging
A lower VIX would lessen the near-term likelihood of wider corporate bond yield spreads. Analysis
Jan 09, 2020

Economic Roundup: Hope You Didn't Lose Sleep Over Initial Claims
The jump in December proved to be short-lived with initial claims showing the job market is strong. Analysis
Jan 09, 2020

Final Thoughts Ahead of December U.S. Employment
We look for employment to have risen by 173,000 and the unemployment rate to have remained at 3.5%. Analysis
Jan 08, 2020

Profits Growth Wards Off Equity Slumps and Reins in Credit Spreads
Stock growth averaged more than 5% annually for most of the last 18 years. Analysis
Jan 08, 2020

Economic Roundup: Oh, What a Relief It Is
Trump's comments suggest tensions with Iran could ease but remain a risk. Analysis
Jan 07, 2020

High Anxiety Not Reflected in VIX, Medium- to Low-Grade Credit Spreads
Tuesday's VIX closed at 13.8 points, which matched its close of year-end 2019. Analysis
Jan 07, 2020

Economic Roundup: Bumping Up Q4 U.S. GDP Tracking Estimate
Net exports will be a positive while inventories will be a drag. Analysis
Jan 07, 2020

U.S. Chartbook: Off to the Races
The new year will bring new challenges, but the economy has entered on a solid footing. Analysis
Jan 07, 2020

2020 Election Tracker Update: Trump Has the Wind at His Back
The president's re-election chances improved slightly over the last month. Analysis
Jan 06, 2020

Base Metals Prices Still Reflect Sluggish Global Industrial Activity
Industrial activity falls short of lifting the utilization of global production capacity. Analysis
Jan 06, 2020

Economic Roundup: No New Year's Cheer for Business Sentiment
Global businesses remain on edge while tensions in the Middle East could hurt sentiment. Analysis
Jan 06, 2020

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 6, 2020
The focus this week will be on the December employment report. Analysis
Jan 06, 2020

Falling Immigration Takes a Toll
Last year saw the slowest U.S. population growth since 1918. Analysis
Jan 03, 2020

Economic Roundup: Another Risk to the U.S. Outlook Emerges
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated. Analysis
Jan 03, 2020

Updated U.S. Risk Matrix: Geopolitical Tensions Flare
The direct economic impact of a military conflict with Iran would be on the collective psyche, equity prices and oil prices. Analysis
Jan 03, 2020

Canada Weekly: What's in Store for 2020?
Rising incomes are helping but households face the competing demand to repair their balance sheets., Analysis
Jan 03, 2020

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Phase One Trade Deal Is Already Making an Impact
China's soybean imports from the U.S. almost doubled from October to November. Analysis
Jan 02, 2020

U.S. Economic Outlook 2020: Especially Muddled
Geopolitical uncertainties remain serious threats. Analysis
Jan 02, 2020

Economic Roundup: Goodbye 2019, Hello 2020
Slow start on the economic front but initial claims suggest the job market is fine. Analysis
Jan 02, 2020

Key Questions for U.S. Economy in 2020
We offer our projections, along with confidence levels. Analysis
Jan 02, 2020

Global Outlook 2020: Some Improvement
Downside risks facing the global economy have eased. Analysis
Dec 31, 2019

Happy New Year From Economic View
We will return on Thursday. Analysis
Dec 31, 2019

U.S. Road to Recession: Some Threats Are Less Threatening
The downside risks haven't disappeared. Analysis
Dec 30, 2019

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Slowing Income Growth Constrains Spending
Many components of income are expected to grow more slowly as 2020 unfolds. Analysis
Dec 27, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: A Truce in the Trade War
A signing ceremony for the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China is being planned. Analysis
Dec 24, 2019

Happy Holidays From Economic View
We will return on Thursday. Analysis
Dec 24, 2019

How We Fared on the Key Questions for 2019
We are taking a look back on our economic predictions for the past year. Analysis
Dec 23, 2019

Economic Roundup: Ho Ho Housing
U.S. housing continues its solid run while manufacturing continues to struggle. Analysis
Dec 23, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Economy's Festive End to an Eventful Year
GDP growth has slowed, but income and labor market trends remain solid. Analysis
Dec 23, 2019

Boeing's 737 Max Issues Will Ding Q1 GDP
The halt of production will reduce inventories and shave 0.5 percentage point off GDP growth. Analysis
Dec 23, 2019

U.S. Regional Outlook: Slowing Down
Employment growth in all four regions is decelerating. Analysis
Dec 23, 2019

Latest Revision of Corporate Earnings Warns of Wider High-Yield Spreads
Core pretax profits have struggled during last five years. Analysis
Dec 23, 2019

The Second Anniversary of the U.S. Tax Cuts
The law's effect on business investment did not materialize, and individuals struggled to make sense of changes. Analysis
Dec 20, 2019

Economic Roundup: Third-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Sluggish
Consumer spending remained a growth leader despite posting much slower growth than in the second quarter. Analysis
Dec 20, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Progress on the Trade Front
The U.S. House passed the USMCA, which would ease uncertainty. Analysis
Dec 20, 2019

Canada Weekly: Pharmaceuticals Sans Frontières
New U.S. policies will allow for greater Canadian medicine exports. Analysis
Dec 20, 2019

Webinar Replay: The Economic Outlook for CECL
New loss accounting rules will be effective next month for some large U.S. SEC filers. Analysis
Dec 20, 2019

Soft Home Sales Would Eventually Drive 10-Year Treasury Yield Under 1.75%
Seasonally adjusted unit sales of existing homes dipped by 1.5% annualized. Analysis
Dec 19, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Holiday Present From Congress
The U.S. Senate passes both spending bills, averting a government shutdown. Analysis
Dec 19, 2019

How the Grinch Didn't Give Us a Shutdown This Christmas
The Senate voted Thursday on the fiscal 2020 budget, which the president will likely sign into law. Analysis
Dec 18, 2019

Economic Roundup: Federal Subsidies Prop Up U.S. Farm Incomes
Third-quarter income growth shone in the Plains region as federal farm subsidies kicked in. Analysis
Dec 18, 2019

High-Yield Rating Changes Say High-Yield Bond Spread Is Too Thin
If it doesn't widen, the high-yield downgrade-per-upgrade ratio would drop under 1.20:1. Analysis
Dec 18, 2019

Market Fears Higher Treasury Bond Yields
The same worry explained the accompanying drop in housing-sector share prices. Analysis
Dec 17, 2019

Economic Roundup: Good News From the U.S. Goods Sector
Housing starts and industrial production advanced in November. Analysis
Dec 17, 2019

Tariffs Tracker: One Step Closer to a Trade Deal
It is premature to say we are at the beginning of the end of the trade wars. Analysis
Dec 17, 2019

Tech's Concentration in U.S. Metro Areas Has Been Exaggerated
The increase in technology employment is much more dispersed than recently claimed. Analysis
Dec 16, 2019

Housing-Sector Share Prices Fell Despite Housing Market Index's 20-Year High
Higher benchmark interest rates may be more damaging to business activity. Analysis
Dec 16, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Slow Start to a Busy Week
U.S. homebuilder confidence remains strong and manufacturing sentiment is resilient. Analysis
Dec 16, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Tune Out the Noise, Signal Is Strong
Calendar quirks distorted data on retail sales and initial jobless claims. Analysis
Dec 16, 2019

U.S. Macro Outlook: Two Economies
How Americans perceive the economy's performance and prospects varies significantly according to whether they are Republican or Democrat. Analysis
Dec 16, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview: December 16, 2019
Overall, the data should take on a slightly better tone. Analysis
Dec 16, 2019

Retail Sales Report Warns of Possibly Wider Spreads
Lackluster retail sales warn of 6th straight decline by the y/y growth rate of core business sales. Analysis
Dec 13, 2019

Economic Roundup: What a Day!
No-deal Brexit was taken off the table, while U.S. and China moved closer to signing a trade deal. Analysis
Dec 13, 2019

Canada Weekly: Trading Ups and Downs
Three major developments in world trade have substantial implications for the country. Analysis
Dec 13, 2019

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Easing Tensions
The U.S. and China reached a Phase One trade agreement, and a Brexit deal looks likely. Analysis
Dec 12, 2019

Overvaluation of Equities Risks Balance Sheets Overleveraging
The market's valuation of equity influences the value of the collateral backing outstanding debt. Analysis
Dec 12, 2019

Economic Roundup: Lagarde Steals the Show
ECB sits tight but Largarde strikes a cautiously optimistic tone. Analysis
Dec 12, 2019

On Cue, U.S. Initial Claims Jump
The increase in new filings is attributed to the calendar configuration. Analysis
Dec 11, 2019

Upward Tilt to Dot-Plot Forecast May Discourage Over-Leveraging
The dot plot reminds business borrowers that today's ample systemic liquidity may not last forever. Analysis
Dec 11, 2019

Economic Roundup: Pause for Effect
The FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.5% to 1.75%. Analysis
Dec 11, 2019

A Good Day for the USMCA
The successor pact to NAFTA is finally primed to pass. Expect little change. Analysis
Dec 10, 2019

Demise of Pensions, Aging Population Heighten Role of Share-Price Performance
Persistently low interest rates are critical to keep the U.S. distanced from a 2020 recession. Analysis
Dec 10, 2019

Economic Roundup: Talking Tough on Trade
Trade tensions remain prominent risks for the U.S. and global economies. Analysis
Dec 10, 2019

European Tariffs More Bark Than Bite
Trump's latest trade skirmishes will have a negligible macroeconomic impact. Analysis
Dec 10, 2019

Updated U.S. Risk Matrix: Trade, Impeachment and Liquidity
The Trump administration is sticking to its trade playbook. Analysis
Dec 10, 2019

U.S. Chartbook: Jobs Engine Revs Up
As consumers keep faith in the labor market, they are opening their wallets to major purchases. Analysis
Dec 09, 2019

Economic Roundup: Tariff Deadline Approaches
Trade tensions may overshadow this week's data as tariffs are scheduled to take effect on Sunday. Analysis
Dec 09, 2019

To Tariff or Not to Tariff
With no trade deal yet, the Trump administration must decide whether to tax Chinese goods on Sunday. Analysis
Dec 09, 2019

Global Outlook: Gauging Recession Risks for 2020
With little else to pick up the slack, consumer spending must not falter. Analysis
Dec 09, 2019

Below-Trend Spec-Grade Yields Stoke Bond Issuance
Friday's 5.8% yield was well below the five-year median of 6.29%. Analysis
Dec 09, 2019

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, December 9, 2019
We expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep its target range for the fed funds rate unchanged. Analysis
Dec 06, 2019

Jobs Grow Briskly Despite Subpar Revenues and Profits
The labor market will not be a primary driver of consumer price inflation. Analysis
Dec 06, 2019

Economic Roundup: A Bad Day for the Doom and Gloomers
November was a blowout month for job growth and the trend is starting to improve. Analysis
Dec 06, 2019

FOMC Preview: According to Plan
Past rate cuts are helping, but the Fed can now sit tight for a while.

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