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Mar 27, 2023
U.S. money market funds have gotten a big boost from rising interest rates and banking system turmoil.
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Mar 24, 2023
New orders for durable goods fell 1% in February, the second straight monthly decline.
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Mar 24, 2023
A key inflation indicator will not be to the Fed's liking.
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Mar 24, 2023
The Bank of Canada appears justified in its decision to pause its monetary policy tightening cycle.
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Mar 24, 2023
The ongoing protests against pension reform will likely hinder industrial production.
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Mar 23, 2023
Jobless claims show no signs of deterioration despite heightened economic uncertainty.
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Mar 23, 2023
Unemployed individuals are finding jobs at a higher rate than in the past two expansions.
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Mar 22, 2023
Amid uncertainty in the banking system, the Federal Reserve announced another 25-bps rate hike.
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Mar 22, 2023
Americans are filing returns later than usual, and state payments may explain some of the delay.
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Mar 22, 2023
Fundamentals are mixed, and consumers are not sure whether to be happy or sad.
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Mar 21, 2023
Financial stability will take precedent over price stability at March's FOMC meeting.
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Mar 21, 2023
The CRE industry stands to lose most from a prolonged crisis of confidence in small banks.
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Mar 21, 2023
Why are there many thousand fewer banks in the U.S. than a generation ago?
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Mar 20, 2023
A pullback in lending by small banks would hit the CRE industry hard.
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Mar 20, 2023
Recent banking failures will complicate the path forward for the Fed.
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Mar 17, 2023
The AMERIBOR® index provided a much earlier and stronger signal of the regional banking crisis.
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Mar 17, 2023
Industrial production was unchanged in February, weighing on our estimate for first-quarter GDP.
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Mar 17, 2023
All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee next week.
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Mar 17, 2023
Liquidity risk will further be addressed by the eventual complete adoption of Basel III standards.
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Mar 17, 2023
Decreased Chinese imports have affected employment in Vancouver's logistics industry.
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Mar 17, 2023
The actions by the Federal Reserve, Treasury and FDIC have eased worries.
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Mar 17, 2023
Despite the unfolding drama, the banking system will hold firm given its strong fundamentals and the U.S. government's explicit backstop.
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Mar 17, 2023
It is less clear if declines will continue.
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Mar 17, 2023
The private sector's rescue of First Republic Bank on Thursday will calm nerves.
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Mar 16, 2023
Housing starts jumped in February, but it is unlikely to be a turning point.
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Mar 16, 2023
Warm weather has pushed starts above permits in the single-family segment.
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Mar 16, 2023
Factory payrolls rolled over in February and the industry is poised for further losses.
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Mar 16, 2023
The collapses of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank have altered our near-term outlook, though the effect should not be overstated.
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Mar 15, 2023
There were modest changes to the forecast in reaction to the recent bank failures.
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Mar 15, 2023
Our quarterly growth tracker for the first quarter rose from 1.6% to 1.9%.
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Mar 15, 2023
Rising control sales did lift our tracking estimate of first-quarter GDP.
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Mar 15, 2023
As childcare costs rise, more parents are stepping back from work to stay home.
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Mar 15, 2023
While in more cases than not taking steps to mitigate climate risk causes pain as firms struggle to adjust, this is hardly a uniform outcome.
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Mar 15, 2023
The breadth of job creation has narrowed considerably in recent months.
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Mar 14, 2023
February's CPI came in hot, but uncertainty in the financial system will cause the Fed to pause.
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Mar 14, 2023
We expect a March pause in central-bank rate hikes, but the latest data show the fight against U.S. inflation is not over.
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Mar 13, 2023
While highly uncertain, the impact of the bank failures on the economic outlook should be on the margin.
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Mar 13, 2023
Indicators are little improved and will do little to alter the Fed's thinking.
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Mar 13, 2023
The bank crisis is unlikely to push the U.S. economy into recession.
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Mar 13, 2023
The possibility of a commercial real estate price crash has made its debut.
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Mar 10, 2023
The final Canadian Tourism Activity Tracker has been released, highlighting tourism's recovery.
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Mar 10, 2023
Despite the inverted Treasury yield curve, corporate credit markets have yet to flash warning signals of an impending recession.
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Mar 10, 2023
Despite the inverted Treasury yield curve, corporate credit markets have yet to flash warning signals of an impending recession.
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Mar 10, 2023
Next week's batch of economic indicators will shed further light on the state of inflation, consumer spending, residential construction and manufacturing output.
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Mar 10, 2023
Despite some encouraging details, February's U.S. jobs report was stronger than the Fed wanted.
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Mar 10, 2023
February's labor market numbers do show some evidence of loosening.
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Mar 10, 2023
The new regulations will make it easier for EU members to spend on renewable energy.
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Mar 10, 2023
U.S. federal tax refunds are coming in lighter than before the pandemic, but it is not fully apparent why.
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Mar 09, 2023
We look for the economy to have added 275,000 jobs, on net, in February.
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Mar 09, 2023
The latest data on inventories, trade and factory orders lowered our Q1 estimate from 2.6% to 1.9%.
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Mar 09, 2023
We look for the economy to have added 275,000 jobs, on net, in February.
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Mar 09, 2023
The latest JOLTS report shows signs of incremental loosening in the labor market.
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Mar 08, 2023
U.S. job openings fall but remain high; workers quitting at the lowest rate in nearly two years.
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Mar 08, 2023
The single-family market may be approaching a turning point.
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Mar 07, 2023
If brinkmanship around the debt limit hurtles to the edge, the economic pain will be meaningful.
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Mar 07, 2023
Northern Virginia's big HQ2 win still matters but not as much as it had seemed.
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Mar 07, 2023
Lawmakers must increase or suspend the debt limit before the Treasury fails to make a payment later this summer.
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Mar 07, 2023
Consumer confidence remains nowhere near the level associated with previous recessions.
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Mar 06, 2023
U.S. factory orders fell in January, though underlying details were positive.
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Mar 06, 2023
What's behind the dramatic increase in household debt?
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Mar 03, 2023
The latest U.S. employment report and job openings data will be released.
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Mar 03, 2023
The unemployment rate likely ticked up from 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969, to 3.5% in February.
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Mar 03, 2023
The obstacles confronting growth outnumber its supports.
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Mar 03, 2023
Putin said the country would no longer participate in the nuclear arms treaty with the U.S.
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Mar 03, 2023
The debt-ceiling face-off looms as a significant risk to markets should Congress fail to work out a deal.
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Mar 03, 2023
U.S. balances and credit quality remain high in total but not uniformly.
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Mar 02, 2023
Despite February's decline, we expect improvement in vehicle sales in 2023.
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Mar 01, 2023
U.S. manufacturing activity declined in February, but the contraction was not as bad as before.
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Mar 01, 2023
January's PCE deflator report indicates a rough disinflation process is underway.
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Mar 01, 2023
Declining prices and limited inventory have put a strain on flippers.
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Mar 01, 2023
Declining prices and limited inventory have put a strain on house flippers.
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Feb 28, 2023
Consumers acknowledge the labor market is tight today but expect looser conditions in six months.
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Feb 28, 2023
Expectations have soured, despite consumers' acknowledgement of a strong job market.
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Feb 28, 2023
The end of rate hikes only marks the beginning of a perilous stretch for the economy.
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Feb 27, 2023
Limited and divergent progress has been made elevating females in the workplace.
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Feb 27, 2023
Surveys show firms have a negative view of the economy. Anything off-script could cause a recession.
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Feb 27, 2023
Business-to-business spending saw the first sign of growth in five months.
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Feb 27, 2023
Inflation in core services excluding housing is the biggest wild card for the Fed.
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Feb 24, 2023
Insights on the state of consumers will come next week.
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Feb 24, 2023
U.S. personal spending, the core PCE deflator, and new-home sales all surprised to the upside.
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Feb 24, 2023
Estimating the role housing starts play on house-price inflation.
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Feb 24, 2023
Booming January data have pushed up our high-frequency estimate. Some payback is likely incoming.
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Feb 24, 2023
Revised data suggest a slower drawdown of excess saving.
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Feb 24, 2023
On the anniversary of the invasion, not much has been resolved.
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Feb 23, 2023
Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth was revised slightly lower, but remains above trend.
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Feb 23, 2023
A strong labor market will drive personal income notably higher.
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Feb 23, 2023
Moody's Analytics now offers climate risk at the regional level.
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Feb 22, 2023
The minutes from the FOMC's February meeting show the difficult position the central bank is in.
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Feb 22, 2023
Oil prices are expected to move sideways, averaging $90 per barrel in 2023 and $87 by the end of the year.
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Feb 21, 2023
The start of the week was relatively calm, but things are set to pick up.
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Feb 21, 2023
Latest data say price deceleration may take longer than we had hoped.
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Feb 21, 2023
A swath of new data offer a clearer glimpse into the state of the economy at the start of 2023.
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Feb 21, 2023
It will be a difficult year for the U.S. economy, but as long as consumers, businesses and lenders do not lose faith, there are better than even odds of skirting a full-blown downturn.
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Feb 21, 2023
Elevated rates of drug abuse are correlated with lower labor force participation.
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Feb 21, 2023
U.S. homebuilding activity should remain robust throughout 2023 given the large number of homes not finished due to supply-chain bottlenecks.
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Feb 17, 2023
Our U.S. offices will be closed Monday, February 20, in observance of Presidents Day.
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Feb 17, 2023
We look for the personal consumption expenditure deflators to have risen, confirming that the disinflationary process will be bumpy.
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Feb 17, 2023
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index declined for the 11th straight month in January.
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Feb 17, 2023
Recent developments in debt markets have been more promising.
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Feb 17, 2023
Canadians have been taking on more debt—but with a recession looming, insolvency concerns are growing.
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