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Oct 18, 2021

This Week in the COVID-19 Recovery
As the Delta wave of the pandemic winds down, the recovery and job market will rev back up. Analysis
Oct 15, 2021

Economic Roundup: Didn't See That Coming
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in September, but not enough to keep Q3 tracking from sliding. Analysis
Oct 15, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Some Chinese Tensions May Ease
There was a productive call between the EU and China on Friday. Analysis
Oct 15, 2021

Canada Weekly: Get a Haircut!
Self-employed small-business owners are being left out of the recovery. Analysis
Oct 15, 2021

Capital Market View: M&A Activity May Not Slow Soon
The pandemic and ESG could support M&A activity over the next couple of years. Analysis
Oct 15, 2021

U.S. Road to Recovery: U.S. Economy Runs Into Delta
The COVID-19 variant weighed more on the economy in the third quarter than previously anticipated. Analysis
Oct 14, 2021

Economic Roundup: Seasonals Push U.S. Initial Claims Lower
Claims are now at their lowest since March 2020, thanks to the seasonal adjustment process. Analysis
Oct 14, 2021

Capital Market View: Update on Spreads and Issuance
Spreads have widened but remain tight from a historical perspective. Analysis
Oct 14, 2021

Don't Sleep on Seasonality
Vaccination rates are still crucial, but U.S. COVID-19 cases are shifting north. Analysis
Oct 14, 2021

U.S. Inflation Heat Map Update
The consumer price index came in slightly stronger than expected in September. Analysis
Oct 14, 2021

Fundamentals Side With Fed on Inflation
It's okay to be nervous, but a wage-price spiral isn't setting in. Analysis
Oct 13, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Inflationary Pressures Broaden, Putting Pressure on Fed
U.S. CPI was up 0.4% in September but it wasn't the reopening of the economy or vehicles this time. Analysis
Oct 13, 2021

Capital Market View: Pressure Building on Fed
Markets are pricing in an earlier liftoff as September CPI comes in hotter than anticipated. Analysis
Oct 13, 2021

CPI Doesn't Cut Into Q3 U.S. GDP
Index components not directly related to the economy's reopening pushed consumer prices higher in September. Analysis
Oct 13, 2021

The Fed's Big Headache: Energy Prices
The impact on U.S. inflation is transitory, but the central bank can go to that well only so many times. Analysis
Oct 12, 2021

Economic Roundup: October U.S. Baseline Has Bigger Cost From Delta
We revised the forecast lower for growth this year, but made little changes to 2022. Analysis
Oct 12, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Inoculating Supply Chains
Harmonization of border protocols and increased vaccination of essential travel workers are a must if the logistics and transportation industry is to forge ahead. Analysis
Oct 12, 2021

Capital Market View: Modest CPI Gain, but Watch Out in October
We look for the CPI to have risen 0.3% in September, but it could come in hotter the next month. Analysis
Oct 11, 2021

Economic Roundup: Delta Less of a Weight on U.S. Economy
Case counts are declining and that should boost job growth in October. Analysis
Oct 11, 2021

Capital Market View: Can 10-Year Treasury Yield Run Higher?
Economic data are set to improve and that could push rates higher, but tapering won't. Analysis
Oct 11, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, October 11, 2021
Some of the weakness in September's employment report is misleading; expect improvement for October. Analysis
Oct 11, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Mixed Messages in Jobs Report
The Delta variant left its fingerprints on the economic data released last week. Analysis
Oct 11, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 28—Women and Work
The September U.S. jobs report was disappointing, but October will be stronger. Analysis
Oct 11, 2021

Supply-Chain Disruptions Will Get Worse Before They Get Better
Deteriorating conditions will cut into GDP growth and raise prices. Analysis
Oct 08, 2021

Economic Roundup: Less U.S. Job Growth Now, More Later
Delta variant keeps people from re-entering the labor force, but they will come back. Analysis
Oct 08, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Myanmar May Be Barred From ASEAN Summit
Leaders have been disappointed about continued military violence in the country. Analysis
Oct 08, 2021

U.S. Employment Report, Cont'd
Soft hiring at schools weighed heavily on the September jobs number. Analysis
Oct 08, 2021

Capital Market View: Labor Force Hasn't Awoken
Delta variant continued to weigh on the job market in September, but better times are ahead. Analysis
Oct 08, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Delta Loosens Grip
Job growth should be stronger in October as a number of high-frequency data we track have improved. Analysis
Oct 08, 2021

Canada Weekly: Assessing Canada's Carbon Tax
The small tax has a minimal effect on both the economy and emissions. Analysis
Oct 08, 2021

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Assessing Threats
Recent developments are a reminder that Washington DC is extremely unpredictable. Analysis
Oct 07, 2021

Economic Roundup: Congress' Favorite Pastime
Lawmakers play their cherished childhood game, kick the can. Analysis
Oct 07, 2021

Debt Ceiling Tracker Update: Phew!
Congress kicks the can slightly down the road with a raised debt limit until December. Analysis
Oct 07, 2021

Capital Market View: Final Thoughts Ahead of September U.S. Employment
We look for a 475,000 net gain in September and a dip in the unemployment rate. Analysis
Oct 07, 2021

State GDP Data Provide a Different Perspective
The Northeast held on to many high-wage jobs, but energy states' pain runs deep. Analysis
Oct 07, 2021

U.S. Retail Prices Still Rising Rapidly
Fast price growth is widespread across retail and has yet to moderate. Analysis
Oct 06, 2021

Economic Roundup: All Eyes on U.S. Employment Growth
ADP National Employment Report bests expectations, adding 568,000 jobs in September. Analysis
Oct 06, 2021

The Macroeconomic Benefits of Racial Integration
It adds up to real money that could substantially improve the long-term financial success of all Americans. Analysis
Oct 06, 2021

U.S. Inflation Tracker: Signs of Calming
Consumer prices may remain volatile in the first half of 2022. Analysis
Oct 05, 2021

Economic Roundup: That Sinking Feeling
Our tracking estimate of third-quarter U.S. GDP growth continues to drop. Analysis
Oct 05, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Delta Easing
In Asia, the current wave of coronavirus is ebbing, but a rapid response to ease restrictions could set up the region for another virus variant. Analysis
Oct 05, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: A September to Remember
Congress averted a government shutdown, but action on the debt-limit and the fate of Build Back Better agenda are in flux. Analysis
Oct 05, 2021

Capital Market View: A Path Best Not Taken
If the debt ceiling is breached, the implications for corporate bond spreads are very dark. Analysis
Oct 05, 2021

The Problem With Early Holiday Shopping
Seasonal adjustment factors could be hard on U.S. consumer spending data. Analysis
Oct 04, 2021

Economic Roundup: Still Transitory, but Likely for Longer
Supply-chain issues are not showing signs of easing. Analysis
Oct 04, 2021

Capital Market View: Behind the Rise in 10-Year U.S. Term Premium
The Fed's taper and higher oil prices are pulling the term premium higher. Analysis
Oct 04, 2021

Tracking U.S. Supply-Chain Issues Key to Near-Term Outlook
Our new Supply-Chain Stress Index will help assess if conditions are improving or not. Analysis
Oct 01, 2021

Canada Weekly: Tourism Sees Slight Improvement
A look into the latest tourism spending data sheds light on the industry's recovery. Analysis
Oct 01, 2021

Economic Roundup: No Relief on U.S. Inflation, but It's Coming
Real spending rose in August, but our tracking estimate of Q3 GDP drops again. Analysis
Oct 01, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Some Things Better, Some Not
Global supply-chain issues will remain problematic, particularly for autos. Analysis
Oct 01, 2021

Capital Market View: 10-Year Treasury Has More Room to Rise
Our tracking estimate of Q3 GDP keeps falling, but that won't prevent rates from rising. Analysis
Oct 01, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Japan Votes For Stability
Kishida will be the new prime minister, beating out the popular Kono. Analysis
Sep 30, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Past Peak Growth
The Q2 GDP estimate was revised up, but growth slowed in the second half of 2021. Analysis
Sep 30, 2021

Capital Market View: Corporate Bond Market Weathers Rise in 10-Year
Investment-grade bonds would be hurt more if long-term rates spike. Analysis
Sep 30, 2021

State Economies Feel Delta's Fallout
Weakness in real-time data was more pronounced in virus hot spots. Analysis
Sep 30, 2021

One U.S. Fiscal Risk Down, Two More to Go
The risk of shutdown has abated, but uncertainty still surrounds the debt limit and the Build Back Better agenda. Analysis
Sep 29, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Pending Home Sales Jump, but Higher Rates Await
Some improvement in the housing inventory helps pending-home sales increase 8.1% in August. Analysis
Sep 28, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Confidence Continues to Slide
There are no immediate implications for near-term consumer spending. Analysis
Sep 28, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: U.S. Will Open to More Travelers
Latin America still falls well short of the vaccination rate needed to protect from any new severe wave of COVID-19 infections. Analysis
Sep 28, 2021

Capital Market View: Tick-Tock
The sooner drop-dead date for U.S. debt ceiling isn't behind the rise in long-term rates. Analysis
Sep 28, 2021

Q3 U.S. GDP Now Tracking South of 4%
Inventories are going to account for the bulk of the gain in growth. Analysis
Sep 27, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Business Equipment Spending Losing Momentum
Core durable-goods orders have moderated. On the policy front, new faces coming to the Fed. Analysis
Sep 27, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Summer's End, Changes at the Fed Impend
Homebuilders have been busy working through their backlogs but have seen some easing in supply issues. Analysis
Sep 27, 2021

Capital Market View: Streaks Are Meant to Be Broken
High-yield corporate bond issuance is a little disappointing in September. Analysis
Sep 27, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 27, 2021
The deadline for Congress to renew expiring government spending authority is fast approaching. Analysis
Sep 27, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 25—Debt and Debt Limits
Latest data on U.S. state-level employment refutes the notion that extended jobless benefits held back job growth. Analysis
Sep 24, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Housing Demand Will Be Tested
New-home sales rose in August, but higher mortgage rates are coming. Analysis
Sep 24, 2021

U.S. Consumer Inflation Is High but Concentrated
The concentration supports the view it will be temporary. Analysis
Sep 24, 2021

Capital Market View: Checking In On Fiscal Stimulus
Another round of Child Tax Credits went out last week. Analysis
Sep 24, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: AUKUS Pact Ruffles France
Scuttled submarine deal between Australia and France has hit EU-U.S. relations. Analysis
Sep 24, 2021

Canada Weekly: A Pandemic Productivity Boom
Investment and structural shifts are fueling productivity and wage growth. Analysis
Sep 23, 2021

Economic Roundup: COVID-19 Pushes U.S. Initial Claims Higher
Hurricane Ida and the pandemic could bite into September employment. Analysis
Sep 23, 2021

Capital Market View: No Two Debt-Ceiling Fights Are Alike
Looking back at 2011 and 2013, and the impact on financial market conditions. Analysis
Sep 23, 2021

A Merry Christmas for U.S. Retailers—At the Cash Register
Getting workers and merchandise will not be easy. Analysis
Sep 23, 2021

Canada Risk Matrix Update: Summer's Optimism Fades
COVID-19's rise, supply-chain bottlenecks, and elevated inflation confront a fragile recovery. Analysis
Sep 23, 2021

The Economic Nuts and Bolts of a Partial U.S. Government Shutdown
It is time to start contemplating the economic costs. Analysis
Sep 23, 2021

A Mix of the Expected and Unexpected in U.S. State Employment
Industry growth rates were unusually predictive, and the unemployment insurance cutoff looks like a mistake. Analysis
Sep 22, 2021

Economic Roundup: Taper Tease
FOMC issues advance notice while Powell all but says tapering begins in November. Analysis
Sep 22, 2021

Capital Market View: Powell's Wink-Wink Moment
Unless something goes wrong, tapering will begin in November. Analysis
Sep 22, 2021

U.S. Credit Outlook: Clouds Swirling
The simultaneous removal of fiscal support and lender accommodations has the potential to push default rates past the baseline forecast. Analysis
Sep 21, 2021

Economic Roundup: Central Bank Week Heating Up
U.S. housing starts were solid in August but the focus is on the Fed. Analysis
Sep 21, 2021

Playing a Dangerous Game With the Debt Limit
A U.S. default would be a catastrophic blow to the nascent economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Analysis
Sep 21, 2021

Capital Market View: U.S. Corporate Bond Market Hangin' Tough
China's corporate debt is a risk, but it doesn't warrant a change to the forecast yet. Analysis
Sep 21, 2021

Entrepreneurship in the U.S.: Innovation out West
The Moody's Analytics Broad Based Startup Rate investigates the potential driver of business creation. Analysis
Sep 21, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Six Billion Doses
The pandemic is being contained in the developed world but still raging in much of the emerging world. Analysis
Sep 20, 2021

Macroeconomic Impact of Home and Community-Based Services Expansion
The U.S. elderly and disabled population will grow quickly in coming decades, putting enormous strain on the fragile system that provides vital care. Analysis
Sep 20, 2021

Economic Roundup: Not How You Wanted to Start Your Week
U.S. homebuilder sentiment rose, but global equity markets were spooked by a China developer. Analysis
Sep 20, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 24—Shortages and Supply Chains
Typical lead times for chip production is over 26 weeks. Analysis
Sep 20, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, September 20, 2021
The Fed's communication around tapering is unlikely to catch financial markets off guard. Analysis
Sep 20, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Inflation Moderation?
Delta muddies the picture, but price growth slowed in August. Analysis
Sep 20, 2021

Capital Market View: FOMC Will Deliver Advance Notice
The Fed will likely borrow language from 2017 to signal that a tapering announcement is coming. Analysis
Sep 20, 2021

U.S. Employment Outlook: Opportunities Knock
Job gains will exceed 6 million this year and nearly 4 million more jobs will be added next year. Analysis
Sep 17, 2021

Economic Roundup: Delta Blues
Costs to the U.S. economy are mounting, but the weakness in confidence is the least concerning. Analysis
Sep 17, 2021

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: School's Out
A return to remote learning will delay the recovery in labor force participation. Analysis
Sep 17, 2021

Capital Market View: A Resilient Bull Run
The forecast is still for equity prices to gradually decline. Analysis
Sep 17, 2021

Delta and the Chip Shortage
The short-term prognosis for resupplying the world with semiconductors is grim. Analysis
Sep 17, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Defence Pact May Affect U.S.-China Relations
The agreement between the U.S., the U.K. and Australia changes the security landscape. Analysis
Sep 17, 2021

Canada Weekly: Housing Replacements
Buyer fatigue brings an end to Canada's pandemic-induced housing frenzy. Analysis
Sep 17, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Delta Forces Divergent Paths
Some central banks have loosened their policy, while others have had to tighten. Analysis
Sep 17, 2021

Electric Vehicle Prices Driving Lower
Many U.S. consumers will wait to see EV sticker prices drop below those of gasoline-powered vehicles before making the switch.

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