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Jan 21, 2022

Economic Roundup: Some Days It Don't Come Easy
Investor sentiment needs a boost, but it won't come from the Fed. Analysis
Jan 21, 2022

Canada Weekly: Cost Pressures
The Bank of Canada may raise rates sooner than previously anticipated given mounting cost pressures. Analysis
Jan 21, 2022

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker Update: Is a Wave Cresting?
As Omicron cases begin to subside, the economic recovery and the U.S. Back-to-Normal Index will pick up steam. Analysis
Jan 21, 2022

Capital Market View: Omicron and Prior COVID-19 Waves
Aside from the first wave, the effects on financial markets of subsequent waves have been small. Analysis
Jan 21, 2022

U.S. B2B Tracker Update: Putting 2021 in the Books
With firms' balance sheets in good shape, the outlook for business-to-business spending is favorable. Analysis
Jan 21, 2022

Managing December's Post-Forecast Events for Scenario Analysis
How risk managers can deal with late-breaking events for their CECL and IFRS 9 scenarios. Analysis
Jan 21, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Fed Policy Error Odds Increasing
Indonesia eases its coal exports ban as Malaysia adds to the international pressure. Analysis
Jan 21, 2022

Global Outlook: The Policy Tightrope
As governments look to unwind the effects of pandemic-era support, risks to the outlook rise. Analysis
Jan 20, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. Initial Claims Raise Red Flag for Employment
Initial claims increased 55,000 to 286,000 in the week ended January 15. Analysis
Jan 20, 2022

U.S. Employment Outlook: Still Bright
Moody's Analytics expects the economy to reach full employment by the end of 2022. Analysis
Jan 20, 2022

Capital Market View: Fed May Signal Hikes Replaced By Balance Sheet Runoff
Financial market conditions tightened the last time the Fed let its balance sheet decline. Analysis
Jan 20, 2022

U.S. Claims Data Cast Harsh Light On Omicron-Stricken Regions
The pickup is being driven disproportionately by the Northeast and states with more cases. Analysis
Jan 19, 2022

Economic Roundup: Weather Boosts U.S. Housing Starts
The outlook is solid as permits continue to run ahead of starts. Analysis
Jan 19, 2022

Global Vaccine Tracker: A Billion U.S. Tests
The COVID-19 Omicron variant's adverse effect on the U.S. economy is increasingly visible. Analysis
Jan 19, 2022

Capital Market View: Corporate Bond Issuance Set to Moderate
Last year was a record year for high-yield issuance but it is set to slow. Analysis
Jan 18, 2022

Economic Roundup: Omicron Bites Into U.S. Manufacturing
Empire State manufacturing survey's general business conditions index plunged in January. Analysis
Jan 18, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: CPI Cements Fed's Hawkish Pivot
Despite damage from Omicron, the central bank has plenty of reasons to hike rates in March. Analysis
Jan 18, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 18, 2022
We look for housing starts to have risen from 1.679 million annualized units in November to 1.689 million in December. Analysis
Jan 18, 2022

U.S. Supply-Chain Update: Moving Sideways
The worst appears over, but Omicron will stall improvement. Analysis
Jan 18, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 41—CPI, Consumers and Cosmo
The U.S. consumer is in much better shape than the latest retail sales numbers imply. Analysis
Jan 14, 2022

U.S. Holiday Observance
Our U.S. offices will be closed Monday, January 17, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Analysis
Jan 14, 2022

Economic Roundup: Misleading Drop in U.S. Retail Sales
Seasonal adjustment factors were challenging and contributed to the decline. Analysis
Jan 14, 2022

U.S. Road to Recovery: Fed Risks Misstep
It is unclear how rate hikes and quantitative tightening will interact with each other. Analysis
Jan 14, 2022

U.S. Risk Matrix Update: Moving on
Lifting monetary policy accommodation isn't going to go smoothly. Analysis
Jan 14, 2022

Canada Weekly: The Pandemic Pilgrimage
The pandemic-induced migration boom is more than just a big-city exodus. Analysis
Jan 14, 2022

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: U.S. Fed Moving Away From Crisis Mode
Due to a strong recovery, the Fed is gearing up to tighten its policy this year. Analysis
Jan 14, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Indonesia's Coal Export Ban May Ease
In the short term, Australia's coal exports will rise. Analysis
Jan 14, 2022

U.S. Holiday Sales Set Records Despite December Decline
Strength was widespread, but the magnitude varied by segment. Analysis
Jan 14, 2022

Brutal Seasonal Factors Push U.S. Retail Sales Lower
Spending is still solid as retail sales are 8.4% above their pre-pandemic trend. Analysis
Jan 13, 2022

Economic Roundup: Omicron Leaving Mark on U.S. Labor
Initial claims increase but remain fairly low. Analysis
Jan 13, 2022

U.S. Inflation Heat Map Update
Besides a slight decline in energy prices, cost pressures held firm in December. Analysis
Jan 13, 2022

Pandemic Dings U.S. Population Growth
A staggering 17 states plus Washington DC lost residents in 2021. Analysis
Jan 13, 2022

Capital Market View: Fed Has Yield Curve on Its Mind
The Fed will lean on its balance sheet to keep the yield curve from inverting. Analysis
Jan 13, 2022

Forecast Note: COVID-19 Scenario Assumptions Update
Our 2022 U.S. view reflects the rising infections due to Omicron along with other evolving factors. Analysis
Jan 12, 2022

Economic Roundup: Worst of U.S. Inflation May Be Behind Us
Energy and supply chains continue to account for the bulk of the year-over-year increase in the CPI. Analysis
Jan 12, 2022

Capital Market View: U.S. CPI Raises Odds of March Fed Hike
Republicans and some Democrats have expressed concerns that BBB legislation will add to inflation. Analysis
Jan 11, 2022

Economic Roundup: How the U.S. Baseline Forecast Changed
January's baseline has a small fiscal package and a more aggressive Fed. Analysis
Jan 11, 2022

Capital Market View: Fed Speaks, Bond Market Listens
Discussion of shrinking the balance sheet has pushed 10-year real Treasury yields higher. Analysis
Jan 11, 2022

Global Vaccine Tracker: Omicron and Semiconductor Chips
Companies are learning to mitigate supply-chain disruptions by building inventory and exploring alternative sourcing. Analysis
Jan 10, 2022

Economic Roundup: U.S. COVID-19 Cases Skyrocketing; Economic Costs Small, so Far
Some signs emerge that Omicron is cutting into the economy. Analysis
Jan 10, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 10, 2022
The consumer price index for December, due out this week, will show that year-over-year growth exceeded 7% and hasn't peaked yet. Analysis
Jan 10, 2022

Capital Market View: U.S. December CPI Could Cement Fed's Plan
The Fed may need to remove policy accommodation soon as inflation north of 7% won't sit well. Analysis
Jan 10, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Labor Market and Monetary Policy Tighten
On average, 537,000 jobs were added per month in 2021. Analysis
Jan 10, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 40—Payrolls and Planes
Workers in low-wage jobs lead the way in the record rate of employees quitting their jobs. Analysis
Jan 10, 2022

Bubble Watch: Will Soaring U.S. Home Prices Reverse Course?
Limited supply and favorable demographics will prevent a collapse in 2022. Analysis
Jan 07, 2022

Economic Roundup: Silly Season
December U.S. employment is much stronger than it appears as seasonal adjustment issues continue. Analysis
Jan 07, 2022

U.S. COVID-19 Tracker: Can't Dodge Omicron
The virus variant will temporarily disrupt the job market, and the January employment report could be ugly. Analysis
Jan 07, 2022

U.S. Employment Report, Cont'd
December's results show nearly 6.5 million jobs were added in 2021. Analysis
Jan 07, 2022

Let's Talk About January
Surging COVID-19 cases are going to weigh heavily on U.S. job growth this month. Analysis
Jan 07, 2022

Capital Market View: Fed's Behind the Curve
The labor market is healing faster than it appears and the Fed may need to act soon. Analysis
Jan 07, 2022

Canada Weekly: Workday Trends in the Pandemic
Longer workweeks are driving turnover and job switching. Analysis
Jan 07, 2022

Semiconductor Chip Shortage to Continue Amid Omicron Surge
COVID-19 vaccination means production is unlikely to be stymied the same way that it was during the mid-2021 Delta wave. Analysis
Jan 07, 2022

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Odds are Falling for Biden's Build Back Better
If some form of the legislation isn't passed by February, it likely won't pass at all. Analysis
Jan 07, 2022

Key Questions for 2022
The path of the U.S. economy and inflation remain tied to the pandemic. Analysis
Jan 06, 2022

Economic Roundup: Drop in U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey Isn't Cause for Concern
Historically, the ISM nonmanufacturing index rarely stays above 60 for long. Analysis
Jan 06, 2022

Final Thoughts Ahead of December U.S. Employment
We look for nonfarm employment to have jumped by 580,000. Analysis
Jan 06, 2022

Capital Market View: Checking In on Spreads, Defaults and Issuance
Spreads widen while the holidays impacted corporate bond issuance. Analysis
Jan 06, 2022

Hitting Ground Floor: The Global Ramifications of a China Debt Crisis
Under our baseline forecast, we expect Chinese officials to work through property market troubles and avoid a hard landing. Analysis
Jan 06, 2022

Omicron Slows Progress Toward Normalcy
Strides in harder-hit U.S. regions are less pronounced, but reasons for hope remain. Analysis
Jan 05, 2022

Economic Roundup: Fed's Version of the Fast and the Furious
Minutes suggest earlier rate hikes and aggressive balance sheet runoff. Analysis
Jan 05, 2022

Global Vaccine Tracker: Omicron to Bite Into Growth
The economic costs are mounting, and our assumption that each passing wave of COVID-19 will be less costly could be optimistic. Analysis
Jan 05, 2022

Something Is About to Spook the Fed
It won't be the employment data or CPI, but the Q4 ECI will not sit well with the central bank. Analysis
Jan 05, 2022

Q4 U.S. GDP Tracking Estimate Continues to Slide
We now have fourth-quarter growth on track to rise 6.8% at an annualized rate. Analysis
Jan 05, 2022

Omicron Didn't Hit Labor Market in December, but Watch Out in January
Surging U.S. cases are going to keep people from working and delay re-entry into the labor force. Analysis
Jan 05, 2022

Capital Market View: U.S. Bond Market Shrugging Off Omicron
Bond market not overly concerned that Omicron will have significant economic costs. Analysis
Jan 05, 2022

2022 Economic Outlook: Time to Heal
Despite it all, the U.S. economy's ability to overcome the pandemic has been admirable. Analysis
Jan 04, 2022

Economic Roundup: Not How We Hoped 2022 Would Start
Omicron is spreading rapidly across the U.S. and it's going to take a big bite out of growth. Analysis
Jan 04, 2022

U.S. Inflation Tracker: Expect Fed to Fight
China's so-called zero-tolerance policy regarding COVID-19 clouds the outlook for supply chains and prices. Analysis
Jan 04, 2022

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, January 4, 2022
Excess savings are unlikely to be reduced meaningfully until more of the pent-up demand for consumer services is unleashed. Analysis
Jan 04, 2022

U.S. Chartbook: Another Pandemic Year Over
Virus risks still cloud the outlook, but there is room for optimism in the new year. Analysis
Jan 04, 2022

Capital Market View: Meet the 2022 FOMC
Regional Fed presidents may not sway the path of policy, but they can move markets. Analysis
Jan 03, 2022

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 39—Economic Threats and Opportunities in 2022
We're a bit more optimistic than the consensus on U.S. growth, but not by much. Analysis
Dec 31, 2021

Happy New Year
Our Europe office will reopen Monday, January 3; Americas and Australia offices will reopen Tuesday, January 4. Analysis
Dec 30, 2021

Times of Plenty, Tough Decisions
U.S. state and local current receipts have surpassed current expenditures in their longest streak since the 1970s. Analysis
Dec 29, 2021

U.S. Commodities Outlook: Will OPEC Stick to Plan?
The cartel could decide it is better served pumping less oil so that it can fetch higher prices. Analysis
Dec 28, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Unwrapping Data on Households
The labor market's strength remains an important driver for consumer activity as we take stock of late-2021 economic data. Analysis
Dec 28, 2021

U.S. Employment Outlook: Signal or Noise?
All jobs lost during the pandemic will be recovered by the second half of 2022. Analysis
Dec 27, 2021

Inside Economics Podcast: Episode 38—Crypto and Dollars
The U.S. dollar's value and status as the world's leading reserve currency remain strong. Analysis
Dec 27, 2021

U.S. Credit Outlook: Implications of Higher Rates
Performance is the biggest worry for 2022. Analysis
Dec 23, 2021

Happy Holidays From Economic View!
We will return on Monday, December 27. Analysis
Dec 23, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Inflation Accelerates While Consumers Lay Goose Egg
Inflation relief is coming while real consumer spending didn't budge in November. Analysis
Dec 23, 2021

The List of Expanding States Grows Larger
The Mountain West leads the way and the South makes strides, but the broader story is mixed. Analysis
Dec 22, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumers Shrug Off Omicron
Confidence increased in December, but as cases continue to rise, it could be tested in January. Analysis
Dec 22, 2021

A Regional Look at New-Home Sales
State-level details reveal where new-home sales have contributed to moderating price gains. Analysis
Dec 22, 2021

Capital Market View: Reading the Tea Leaves From Fed
The Fed's patience is thin and there are hints rate hikes will start soon after tapering ends. Analysis
Dec 21, 2021

Economic Roundup: What No BBB Means for 2022 U.S. GDP
If lawmakers don't pass the legislation, it would shave 0.75 of a percentage point off of growth. Analysis
Dec 21, 2021

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, December 21, 2021
Despite the holiday, this is a jam-packed week. Analysis
Dec 21, 2021

Global Vaccine Tracker: Omicron Now Dominant in U.S.
The new variant is responsible for more than 70% of new infections. Analysis
Dec 21, 2021

How We Fared on Key Questions for 2021
We were mostly correct on the economy's performance but inflation and politics deviated. Analysis
Dec 21, 2021

Manchin Throws Wrench in U.S. Economic Outlook
Odds are high and rising that the Build Back Better bill will not become law. Analysis
Dec 21, 2021

U.S. Chartbook: Turning Tides
Optimism surrounds supply chains but there is plenty of downside risk. Analysis
Dec 20, 2021

Economic Roundup: Did Manchin Throw a Curveball or Sinker?
The uncertainty around our fiscal policy assumptions just increased significantly. Analysis
Dec 20, 2021

Capital Market View: A Key Non-Rates Question for Fed in 2022
It will likely let its balance sheet naturally decline shortly after the first rate hike. Analysis
Dec 20, 2021

State and Local Outlook: Spend More, Hire Less
Federal windfalls boost bottom lines, but hiring shortfalls spell trouble. Analysis
Dec 17, 2021

Economic Roundup: It'll Get Worse Before It Gets Better
Another COVID-19 wave is underway in the U.S. and states are tightening restrictions. Analysis
Dec 17, 2021

Canada Weekly: Inflation Starts to Hurt
Rising prices are hurting consumers and goods producers, but are showing signs of slowing. Analysis
Dec 17, 2021

Geopolitical Risk Calendar: Diplomatic Boycott of China Olympics
The U.S. is also pressuring American corporations on their Winter Game sponsorship. Analysis
Dec 17, 2021

Capital Market View: Where Will Fed's Tightening Cycle End?
If things don't change, it will end well below where the Fed expects it to. Analysis
Dec 17, 2021

COVID-19 Policy Tracker: Build Back Better Still on Track
The bill will be passed in late December. Analysis
Dec 16, 2021

Economic Roundup: U.S. Homebuilding Bounces Back
Housing starts enjoyed their strongest one-month increase since March.

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