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Jun 18, 2018
Real wages are not accelerating nearly as much as they did in previous tight labor markets.
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Jun 15, 2018
The projected slide by the high-yield default rate bodes well for earnings-sensitive financial assets.
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Jun 15, 2018
The week ahead won't match the week that was.
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Jun 15, 2018
U.S. and China taking trade gambles.
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Jun 15, 2018
A growing number of forces will drag down growth in the housing market over 2018.
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Jun 15, 2018
The direct impact on U.S. GDP and inflation is small; knock-on effects are more concerning.
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Jun 14, 2018
Apparently, the government feels no pressing need to lock in recent fixed-rate borrowing costs.
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Jun 14, 2018
Calendar-based guidance is risky, as it can be misinterpreted as a hard commitment.
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Jun 14, 2018
We still have GDP tracking 4% this quarter.
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Jun 14, 2018
We still have GDP tracking 4% this quarter.
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Jun 14, 2018
The tight labor market, tax legislation, and weather boosted retail sales in May.
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Jun 14, 2018
Options are available to avoid an inverted yield curve.
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Jun 14, 2018
Something will have to go terribly wrong for the Fed not to raise rates two more times.
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Jun 13, 2018
The Federal Reserve expressed its limited tolerance for faster price growth.
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Jun 13, 2018
The Fed raises rates, drops forward guidance, adjusts rate path, makes technical change to IOER.
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Jun 13, 2018
Control measures may be the lesser of evils.
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Jun 13, 2018
Two dominant players in the fed funds market could cause the central bank some headaches.
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Jun 12, 2018
Faster CPI inflation lives up to expectations.
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Jun 12, 2018
Consider the tight labor market, above-trend GDP growth, higher commodity prices, and tariffs.
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Jun 12, 2018
If there is any debate about tariffs' impact on inflation, look at laundry equipment.
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Jun 12, 2018
The U.S.-North Korea summit ended amiably, but a difficult road lies ahead.
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Jun 11, 2018
The 3-month Libor is effectively ahead of the Fed, which will likely raise rates this week.
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Jun 11, 2018
The geopolitical event risk and economic calendars heat up.
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Jun 11, 2018
Growth will continue to accelerate in 2018, but gains will be less broad-based.
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Jun 11, 2018
Escalating rancor between the U.S. and its G-7 allies overshadows a week full of positive data.
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Jun 11, 2018
The FOMC will raise the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points.
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Jun 11, 2018
Fed will raise rates, realign IOER, and signal more rate hikes in 2018 and 2019.
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Jun 08, 2018
We have raised our subjective odds of a July rate hike by the Bank of Canada.
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Jun 08, 2018
Core sales' livelier tone also a good sign for profitability, capital spending and hiring.
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Jun 08, 2018
Aside from the toll on society, the labor force is undermined.
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Jun 08, 2018
U.S. levies on Canadian steel and aluminum will not cause a surge in the trade deficit.
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Jun 07, 2018
Federal debt rises, explaining 2018's interest rate upswing.
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Jun 07, 2018
Also, final numbers show euro zone's economy decelerated in the first quarter.
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Jun 06, 2018
Hours were revised up and output was revised down; U.S. trade deficit narrowed.
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Jun 06, 2018
If the index extends its climb, so will yields and corporate borrowing costs.
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Jun 06, 2018
Second quarter growth is tracking 4% after April trade data.
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Jun 06, 2018
Tepid gains are weighing on profits and could slow business investment.
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Jun 06, 2018
It's a done deal that the Fed will raise interest rates in June.
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Jun 05, 2018
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 2.92% despite some good news.
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Jun 05, 2018
Trade and the difficulty filling open positions are challenges for U.S. nonmanufacturing.
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Jun 04, 2018
Bond markets outside the U.S. limit upside for Treasury yields.
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Jun 04, 2018
Trade risks may gain more visibility in coming U.S. factory order numbers.
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Jun 04, 2018
Implications for GDP are fairly small.
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Jun 04, 2018
Positives for the economy still outweigh the negatives, but downside risks are escalating.
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Jun 01, 2018
Modest wage growth implies the jobless rate can drop further without triggering an inflation upturn.
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Jun 01, 2018
The U.S. unemployment rate hit 3.8% in May and is going lower.
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Jun 01, 2018
We'll get a look at the nonmanufacturing segment of the economy, which accounts for 88% of GDP.
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Jun 01, 2018
The Fed will raise rates in June; the bar for not moving in September is now higher.
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Jun 01, 2018
There are no implications for Q2 GDP, but revisions were kind to Q1 GDP.
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May 31, 2018
Forecasts of inflation may be upended by many consumers' inability to afford price hikes.
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May 31, 2018
What a day, with tariffs, U.S. consumer spending, yield curve, stagflation concerns in euro zone.
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May 31, 2018
We are sticking with our below-consensus forecast, but risks are weighted to the upside.
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May 31, 2018
Growth less impressive after adjusting for the boost from weather.
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May 30, 2018
Meanwhile, higher mortgage yields may be curbing home sales.
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May 30, 2018
There will be more tensions, but we don't expect a repeat of the European debt crisis.
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May 30, 2018
We are now tracking 3.4% at an annualized rate.
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May 30, 2018
Classifying munis as HQLA will increase muni demand just when issuers need it most.
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May 30, 2018
Revisions to intellectual property investment suggest productivity growth could eventually improve.
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May 30, 2018
Italian political uncertainty isn't the only source of market jitters.
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May 30, 2018
There are good reasons for the slowdown.
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May 29, 2018
Political issues in Italy and Spain spook financial markets.
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May 29, 2018
The Fed will tolerate a modest and temporary overshoot of its 2% inflation target.
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May 29, 2018
The 10-year Treasury yield is now at 252 basis points above the 10-year German bund yield.
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May 25, 2018
There were some encouraging details but investment isn't booming this quarter.
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May 25, 2018
Will April showers bring May flowers for the labor market?
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May 25, 2018
With NAFTA talks stalling on auto demands, auto manufacturers reenter the spotlight.
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May 25, 2018
If other countries retaliate, then U.S. GDP would decline.
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May 25, 2018
Effect on consumer spending depends on how quickly prices at the pump rise.
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May 24, 2018
Home sales drop; manufacturing surveys continue to improve; Trump cancels North Korea summit.
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May 24, 2018
March marked the 17th consecutive yearly decline by the home affordability index.
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May 24, 2018
Eruption on the Big Island is hurting tourism, but its broader impact will be modest.
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May 24, 2018
Residential investment is off to a slow start this quarter.
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May 23, 2018
The highest effective 30-year mortgage yield in seven years has depressed refinancing applications.
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May 23, 2018
Central bank will stomach a modest and temporary inflation overshoot.
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May 23, 2018
Limited pricing power is keeping fares low, for now.
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May 23, 2018
April sales dropped and annual revisions dinged the first quarter.
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May 22, 2018
Moody's projects a decline by the U.S. high-yield default rate from 3.7% to 1.5%.
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May 22, 2018
Transitory, trade and tariffs were the focus on Tuesday.
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May 22, 2018
Repealing Costa Hawkins would limit housing supply and boost construction costs, ultimately hurting more people than it would help.
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May 22, 2018
Spending growth will follow income growth.
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May 21, 2018
Trade tensions between China and the U.S. ease, for now.
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May 21, 2018
The high-yield spread was recently at 349 basis points.
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May 21, 2018
Q1 GDP is tracking 2.2% while Q2 is at 3.1%.
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May 21, 2018
The more controversial and complex sticking points between the two nations remain unaddressed.
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May 21, 2018
The economy is growing, but traditional comparative advantage is shifting.
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May 18, 2018
FOMC minutes should be uneventful while the Treasury will be busy.
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May 18, 2018
Lack of progress on the trade pact is more important to the BoC than April CPI.
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May 18, 2018
The price of a corporate bond can rise despite higher Treasury yields.
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May 18, 2018
Part-time workers are transitioning to full-time.
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May 18, 2018
Our confidence has improved for some projections but weakened for others.
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May 17, 2018
When the unemployment rate and the capacity utilization rate indicate declining rates of resource utilization, recessions impend or are present.
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May 17, 2018
Philly Fed signals a pickup in producer prices while inflation expectations could be on the move.
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May 17, 2018
Philly Fed signals a pickup in producer prices while inflation expectations could be on the move.
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May 17, 2018
Inflation expectations should begin to move higher.
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May 17, 2018
Inflation expectations should begin to move higher.
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May 17, 2018
Record vacancies amid a tight labor market and immigration restrictions could see job gains fall short of expectations.
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