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Jan 18, 2020
Our U.S. offices will reopen after the Martin Luther King Jr. Day celebration.
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Jan 17, 2020
December's low 77% capacity should increase to a higher rate during 2020.
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Jan 17, 2020
A warm December boosts housing starts but dings industrial production.
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Jan 17, 2020
Women's share of total employment is up, and that could be putting some downward pressure on wages.
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Jan 17, 2020
The year looks brighter for the industry, but there are risks and uncertainty.
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Jan 17, 2020
The agreement is more symbolic than substantive; Phase Two will tackle more complex issues.
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Jan 17, 2020
The market value of U.S. common stock soared by 28.4% from the end of 2018 to the end of 2019.
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Jan 16, 2020
December sales were 5.8% above their year-ago level and November's were up 3.3%.
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Jan 16, 2020
The higher asset prices rise, the more considerable the risks of a disorderly adjustment.
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Jan 16, 2020
Consumer credit posted year-over-year balance growth of more than 4% in November.
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Jan 16, 2020
Fourth-quarter 2019's outlook changes for U.S. investment-grade issuers included 21 reductions.
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Jan 15, 2020
Phase One trade deal does not alter our forecast.
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Jan 15, 2020
The agreement will do little to reverse the damage of the trade war, but it may deter escalation.
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Jan 14, 2020
Labor quality problems tend to rise as unemployment falls.
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Jan 14, 2020
December's low inflation is helping to boost real wages, which should support consumer spending.
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Jan 14, 2020
The South continues to lead the way in population growth.
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Jan 14, 2020
Strength in the labor market and service economy is offsetting weakness in manufacturing.
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Jan 13, 2020
The relationship between C&I loan growth and business activity is not monotonic.
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Jan 13, 2020
U.K. GDP fell in November, boosting market expectations of a rate cut.
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Jan 13, 2020
If the U.S.-China deal is signed, the devil will be in the details.
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Jan 13, 2020
The case for another cut has weakened.
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Jan 10, 2020
This record-long expansion is a marathon, not a 100-yard dash.
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Jan 10, 2020
The Fed still can stick to its plan to keep interest rates unchanged this year.
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Jan 10, 2020
The arrest of a Huawei executive in Vancouver in December 2018 sparked a flare-up.
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Jan 10, 2020
The volatile relationship could again deteriorate, with serious consequences.
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Jan 10, 2020
The calendar boosted U.S. job growth in December but ignored average hourly earnings.
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Jan 09, 2020
A lower VIX would lessen the near-term likelihood of wider corporate bond yield spreads.
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Jan 09, 2020
The jump in December proved to be short-lived with initial claims showing the job market is strong.
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Jan 09, 2020
We look for employment to have risen by 173,000 and the unemployment rate to have remained at 3.5%.
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Jan 08, 2020
Stock growth averaged more than 5% annually for most of the last 18 years.
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Jan 08, 2020
Trump's comments suggest tensions with Iran could ease but remain a risk.
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Jan 07, 2020
Tuesday's VIX closed at 13.8 points, which matched its close of year-end 2019.
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Jan 07, 2020
Net exports will be a positive while inventories will be a drag.
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Jan 07, 2020
The new year will bring new challenges, but the economy has entered on a solid footing.
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Jan 07, 2020
The president's re-election chances improved slightly over the last month.
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Jan 06, 2020
Industrial activity falls short of lifting the utilization of global production capacity.
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Jan 06, 2020
Global businesses remain on edge while tensions in the Middle East could hurt sentiment.
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Jan 06, 2020
The focus this week will be on the December employment report.
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Jan 06, 2020
Last year saw the slowest U.S. population growth since 1918.
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Jan 03, 2020
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated.
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Jan 03, 2020
The direct economic impact of a military conflict with Iran would be on the collective psyche, equity prices and oil prices.
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Jan 03, 2020
Rising incomes are helping but households face the competing demand to repair their balance sheets.,
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Jan 03, 2020
China's soybean imports from the U.S. almost doubled from October to November.
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Jan 02, 2020
Geopolitical uncertainties remain serious threats.
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Jan 02, 2020
Slow start on the economic front but initial claims suggest the job market is fine.
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Jan 02, 2020
We offer our projections, along with confidence levels.
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Jan 02, 2020
Downside risks facing the global economy have eased.
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Dec 31, 2019
We will return on Thursday.
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Dec 31, 2019
The downside risks haven't disappeared.
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Dec 30, 2019
Many components of income are expected to grow more slowly as 2020 unfolds.
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Dec 27, 2019
A signing ceremony for the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China is being planned.
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Dec 24, 2019
We will return on Thursday.
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Dec 24, 2019
We are taking a look back on our economic predictions for the past year.
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Dec 23, 2019
U.S. housing continues its solid run while manufacturing continues to struggle.
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Dec 23, 2019
GDP growth has slowed, but income and labor market trends remain solid.
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Dec 23, 2019
The halt of production will reduce inventories and shave 0.5 percentage point off GDP growth.
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Dec 23, 2019
Employment growth in all four regions is decelerating.
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Dec 23, 2019
Core pretax profits have struggled during last five years.
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Dec 23, 2019
The law's effect on business investment did not materialize, and individuals struggled to make sense of changes.
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Dec 20, 2019
Consumer spending remained a growth leader despite posting much slower growth than in the second quarter.
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Dec 20, 2019
The U.S. House passed the USMCA, which would ease uncertainty.
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Dec 20, 2019
New U.S. policies will allow for greater Canadian medicine exports.
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Dec 20, 2019
New loss accounting rules will be effective next month for some large U.S. SEC filers.
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Dec 20, 2019
Seasonally adjusted unit sales of existing homes dipped by 1.5% annualized.
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Dec 19, 2019
The U.S. Senate passes both spending bills, averting a government shutdown.
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Dec 19, 2019
The Senate voted Thursday on the fiscal 2020 budget, which the president will likely sign into law.
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Dec 18, 2019
Third-quarter income growth shone in the Plains region as federal farm subsidies kicked in.
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Dec 18, 2019
If it doesn't widen, the high-yield downgrade-per-upgrade ratio would drop under 1.20:1.
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Dec 18, 2019
The same worry explained the accompanying drop in housing-sector share prices.
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Dec 17, 2019
Housing starts and industrial production advanced in November.
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Dec 17, 2019
It is premature to say we are at the beginning of the end of the trade wars.
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Dec 17, 2019
The increase in technology employment is much more dispersed than recently claimed.
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Dec 16, 2019
Higher benchmark interest rates may be more damaging to business activity.
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Dec 16, 2019
U.S. homebuilder confidence remains strong and manufacturing sentiment is resilient.
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Dec 16, 2019
Calendar quirks distorted data on retail sales and initial jobless claims.
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Dec 16, 2019
How Americans perceive the economy's performance and prospects varies significantly according to whether they are Republican or Democrat.
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Dec 16, 2019
Overall, the data should take on a slightly better tone.
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Dec 16, 2019
Lackluster retail sales warn of 6th straight decline by the y/y growth rate of core business sales.
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Dec 13, 2019
No-deal Brexit was taken off the table, while U.S. and China moved closer to signing a trade deal.
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Dec 13, 2019
Three major developments in world trade have substantial implications for the country.
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Dec 13, 2019
The U.S. and China reached a Phase One trade agreement, and a Brexit deal looks likely.
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Dec 12, 2019
The market's valuation of equity influences the value of the collateral backing outstanding debt.
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Dec 12, 2019
ECB sits tight but Largarde strikes a cautiously optimistic tone.
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Dec 12, 2019
The increase in new filings is attributed to the calendar configuration.
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Dec 11, 2019
The dot plot reminds business borrowers that today's ample systemic liquidity may not last forever.
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Dec 11, 2019
The FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.5% to 1.75%.
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Dec 11, 2019
The successor pact to NAFTA is finally primed to pass. Expect little change.
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Dec 10, 2019
Persistently low interest rates are critical to keep the U.S. distanced from a 2020 recession.
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Dec 10, 2019
Trade tensions remain prominent risks for the U.S. and global economies.
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Dec 10, 2019
Trump's latest trade skirmishes will have a negligible macroeconomic impact.
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Dec 10, 2019
The Trump administration is sticking to its trade playbook.
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Dec 10, 2019
As consumers keep faith in the labor market, they are opening their wallets to major purchases.
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Dec 09, 2019
Trade tensions may overshadow this week's data as tariffs are scheduled to take effect on Sunday.
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Dec 09, 2019
With no trade deal yet, the Trump administration must decide whether to tax Chinese goods on Sunday.
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Dec 09, 2019
With little else to pick up the slack, consumer spending must not falter.
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Dec 09, 2019
Friday's 5.8% yield was well below the five-year median of 6.29%.
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Dec 09, 2019
We expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep its target range for the fed funds rate unchanged.
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Dec 06, 2019
The labor market will not be a primary driver of consumer price inflation.
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Dec 06, 2019
November was a blowout month for job growth and the trend is starting to improve.
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Dec 06, 2019
Past rate cuts are helping, but the Fed can now sit tight for a while.
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