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Dec 12, 2018
Lower inflation expectations matter, but not a lot. Other headwinds are more problematic.
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Dec 12, 2018
Lower Treasury yields boost mortgage applications.
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Dec 12, 2018
Our new broad-based startup rate shows which U.S. metro areas are more truly dynamic.
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Dec 11, 2018
From a historical perspective, the share is far from alarming.
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Dec 11, 2018
PPI holds up in November, but further weakness is ahead.
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Dec 11, 2018
Uncertainty will likely rise next year, as markets and the Fed differ on rate hike expectations.
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Dec 10, 2018
The now-2.86% 10-year Treasury yield may help to steady the overall equity market.
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Dec 10, 2018
Markets now put the odds of a single Fed rate hike next year at less than 50%.
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Dec 10, 2018
Weather aside, trend job growth has moderated but remains more than sufficient to lower the unemployment rate over time.
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Dec 07, 2018
Continued weakness may dissuade the FOMC from hiking rates at its next meeting
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Dec 07, 2018
U.S. job growth slows but remains strong.
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Dec 07, 2018
The Fed could opt for a dovish rate hike.
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Dec 07, 2018
The government unveils an investment tax break as it faces a widening fiscal deficit.
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Dec 06, 2018
Fears of a recession in the near future may be overblown.
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Dec 06, 2018
Odds of a December hike have dropped, but we are sticking to our forecast.
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Dec 06, 2018
We look for a 205,000 net gain in jobs, but weather is a wild card.
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Dec 06, 2018
The U.S. September quarter is now tracking 3.5%, while Q4 growth is still coming in at 2.8%.
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Dec 06, 2018
A tariff détente would bring benefits, but qualitative measures are of greater concern.
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Dec 05, 2018
U.S. markets closed for President George H.W. Bush's funeral.
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Dec 05, 2018
To make it count, an extended pause is needed, but it could be risky.
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Dec 05, 2018
If the Fed stood pat only briefly, the economic benefits would be small.
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Dec 05, 2018
The tariff timeout and lower transportation costs will limit gains in the core PCE deflator.
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Dec 05, 2018
The new bank rules will lower odds that the financial system and economy will suffer as it did a decade ago.
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Dec 05, 2018
The latest reports warn of steep losses ahead for the U.S. and global economies.
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Dec 05, 2018
The economy faces challenges over the next year.
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Dec 04, 2018
Core business sales' annual growth rate fell in October its slowest since January.
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Dec 04, 2018
Despite the compression in the curve, the U.S. economy remains healthy.
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Dec 04, 2018
Recent compression puts odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 27%.
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Dec 04, 2018
Vehicle sales boost Q4 GDP, but residential investment came in weaker.
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Dec 04, 2018
Getting China to play fairly in the global economy may have to wait for another day and another approach.
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Dec 04, 2018
The first step has been taken to prevent further escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions.
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Dec 03, 2018
The credit market is growing more confident that core inflation will be well contained.
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Dec 03, 2018
The U.S. and China will hold off on further tariffs until March 1.
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Dec 03, 2018
Chatter from the White House and Federal Reserve soothes markets, for now.
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Dec 03, 2018
The trade ceasefire is sure to garner a lot of attention.
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Dec 03, 2018
A trade truce has bigger implications for markets than for the U.S. economy.
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Nov 30, 2018
However, comparisons falter between publicly- and privately held companies.
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Nov 30, 2018
A comprehensive deal is possible, but we are not holding our breath.
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Nov 30, 2018
The Federal Reserve is attempting to cool the economy.
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Nov 30, 2018
The spread between months' supply of new and existing homes widened further in October.
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Nov 30, 2018
The share of decelerating global GDP has reached the highest level in years.
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Nov 30, 2018
The share of slowing global GDP has reached the highest level seen in years.
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Nov 30, 2018
The U.S. and China will explore a trade deal at the G-20 Summit, but we are not holding our breath.
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Nov 29, 2018
Employee compensation is tame despite the very low jobless rate.
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Nov 29, 2018
The central bank is gearing up for another step to remove forward guidance.
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Nov 29, 2018
Consumers are doing their part while farm subsidies boosted incomes.
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Nov 29, 2018
The rise in initial claims is attributable to this year's early Thanksgiving.
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Nov 28, 2018
The Fed chief's remarks diminished fears of a disruptive ascent by interest rates
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Nov 28, 2018
Powell corrects his view on where interest rates are relative to neutral.
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Nov 28, 2018
Wednesday's data were unfavorable, and the economy has lost a step.
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Nov 28, 2018
Comments by the Fed chair were more a correction than a dovish shift.
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Nov 27, 2018
Fed officials are helping to correct Powell's recent slip-up.
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Nov 27, 2018
An even higher speculative-grade yield is favored for 2019.
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Nov 27, 2018
Clarida is the latest Fed official to temper Powell's earlier hint on the neutral fed funds rate.
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Nov 27, 2018
The Conference Board's labor market differential points toward a drop in the unemployment rate.
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Nov 27, 2018
Tax revenues have strengthened, but the pressures of Medicaid spending will not let up.
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Nov 26, 2018
The focus is on possible favorable outcomes from Powell and the G20 meeting.
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Nov 26, 2018
The ball is now in the British prime minister's court.
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Nov 26, 2018
It will be painful, particularly for interest-rate-sensitive segments of the economy, including housing.
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Nov 26, 2018
Fundamentals remain supportive, but business confidence is becoming more cautious.
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Nov 26, 2018
We expect improvement in new-home sales.
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Nov 21, 2018
High-yield default insurance premium rises to two-year high.
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Nov 21, 2018
Housing is feeling the Fed's pain, but weaker business investment is more about trade than rates.
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Nov 21, 2018
The website will be fully updated on Monday, November 26.
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Nov 21, 2018
More troubles are ahead because of the drop in oil prices.
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Nov 21, 2018
Wealth effects have waned as asset price growth slows.
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Nov 20, 2018
Unless the equity market recovers, the futures market should prove the better predictor.
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Nov 20, 2018
The Fed is trying to cool the economy, and that causes some pain.
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Nov 20, 2018
Little improvement is likely through the remainder of this year.
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Nov 19, 2018
The yield surprisingly ended Monday unchanged at 3.06%.
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Nov 19, 2018
NAHB index drops in November but remains at a favorable level, for now.
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Nov 19, 2018
Stimulus is supporting growth, but at great cost to the nation's economic health.
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Nov 19, 2018
Consumer prices are running right on the Fed's target.
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Nov 19, 2018
Costs didn't seem to matter to Amazon when choosing HQ2
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Nov 16, 2018
Stronger capacity utilization will help to ward off a rise in the high-yield default rate.
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Nov 16, 2018
With explicit forward guidance, central bank communication will be all over the place.
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Nov 16, 2018
Manufacturing output rose 0.3% in October even with auto production dropping.
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Nov 16, 2018
Manitoba's economy is slowing, but Winnipeg is outperforming.
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Nov 16, 2018
We will be watching oil prices.
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Nov 15, 2018
Baa3 bonds are around an unprecedented 56.8% of high-yield U.S. corporates outstanding.
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Nov 15, 2018
U.S. labor market is helping support spending as consumers come off a tax-cut sugar high.
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Nov 15, 2018
Households headed by those 35 to 64 are the main culprit for sustained weakness in homeownership.
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Nov 15, 2018
The fires' cost will almost certainly surpass $4 billion, perhaps by a large margin.
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Nov 15, 2018
The economy has slowed a notch this quarter.
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Nov 15, 2018
In October, control retail sales were up only 2% annualized over the prior three months.
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Nov 14, 2018
Worries about crude oil, global business activity chip away at equities.
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Nov 14, 2018
A draft Brexit agreement has been drawn up, but the long approval process remains.
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Nov 14, 2018
Amazon will bring a surge in tech jobs but the story is nuanced for NYC, DC, and Nashville.
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Nov 13, 2018
Such commodities are sinking in light of lackluster global business activity.
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Nov 13, 2018
The internet behemoth's second headquarters will be split between Virginia and New York.
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Nov 13, 2018
Market participants are swiftly recalibrating their expectations for production declines.
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Nov 13, 2018
The robust job growth taking place in all four regions will not be matched again this cycle.
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Nov 12, 2018
Consumers appear to be balking at higher prices.
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Nov 12, 2018
The losing streak for oil prices continues.
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Nov 12, 2018
There's plenty to disagree about, but things still need to get done in DC.
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Nov 09, 2018
Higher U.S. interest rates will only make matters worse for the global economy.
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Nov 09, 2018
The slide in oil prices will begin to feed into producer and consumer prices.
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