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Sep 07, 2018
The Quarterly Services Survey report bodes well for revisions to second quarter consumer spending. U.S. selected services' total revenue for the first quarter was up 5.3% from a year earlier on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Information services revenue rose 8.5%, professional services grew slightly by 5.2%, and administrative services gained 5.5% on a year-ago basis.
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Sep 04, 2018
The Moody's Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate fell 21 basis points to 4.73% in July. The decline stemmed mainly from the continued resolution of delinquent loans from the 2006 and 2007 vintages. All five property types and four regional delinquency rates decreased this month. The balance of delinquent CMBS conduit loans decreased this month since resolutions outweighed newly delinquent loans.
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Aug 16, 2018
Total U.S. household borrowing surged by $69 billion or 0.55% from last month. Year-over-year growth reached a 6 month peak at 4.11%. Home equity and student loans continue to be the only categories of household debt that did not increase. Total dollar delinquencies rates increased by 12 basis points this month to 2.41%.
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Aug 15, 2018
An unexpected jump in crude oil inventories will put downward pressure on prices. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 6.8 million barrels in the week ended August 10, completely surprising analyst predictions of a 2.9 million-barrel draw. Gasoline inventories fell by 700,000 barrels, contradicting analyst expectations of a 27,000-barrel increase. Distillate inventories rose by 3.6 million barrels, beating analyst predictions of a 1.1 million-barrel build. Refinery capacity utilization rose to 98.1% from 96.6%, going against analyst expectations of a 0.36-percentage point dip. Total U.S. oil demand was 1.6% lower than a year earlier.
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Aug 15, 2018
Mortgage applications fell again last week, even though most interest rates declined. The total index was down 2% over the week. Refinancing held essentially steady, while purchases decreased 3.3%.
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Aug 14, 2018
U.S. economic policy uncertainty has risen this month and could help explain the recent weakness in some measures of business confidence. We don't believe the economic costs of the increase in uncertainty are significant. However, if it continues to climb, the costs will increase. The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index rose from 102.8 to 107.5 in the week ended August 5, putting it at its highest since May.
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Aug 08, 2018
Single-family home prices continue to make steady gains as a shortage of inventory pushes up on home values even with only moderate demand. The national median existing single-family home price increased 5.3% year over year in the second quarter. The good news is that this is slightly slower than the 5.7% increase in the first quarter, thanks to inventory at last starting to increase from its previous rock-bottom level. The proportion of metro areas showing year-over-year price gains was 161 out of 178, or 90.4%.
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Aug 08, 2018
The composite leading indicator is sending the first signs of easing momentum for the OECD countries, reading at 99.8 in June, down from 99.9 previously. With the headline dipping further below its long-term average, slowing GDP expansion in the developed world looks more likely. Out of the seven major economies, only the U.S. and Japan kept a stable outlook. The economic weather is gloomier in the euro area, the U.K. and Russia, foreshadowing a gradual easing for the second part of the year. A firming industrial sector in China, however, could mitigate the global slowdown and lift growth in the emerging countries.
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Jul 26, 2018
Inventories paused in June. According to the advance estimate, wholesale stockpiles were unchanged in June, following a 0.4% increase in May. Retailers were also unchanged following a 0.4% increase in May. Auto inventories fell 0.3%, while retailers excluding autos increased 0.3%.
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Jul 24, 2018
Personal bankruptcy filings increased in the second quarter, following their normal seasonal pattern. The increase was larger than last year despite the support to budgets from tax cuts and the strong labor market. Filings came in 1.9% below their year-ago level. Business filings fell modestly in contrast to a sharp, if temporary, increase in last year's second quarter. They came in 13.9% below their year-ago level after falling 0.8% on a year-ago basis in the first quarter.
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Jul 05, 2018
Household financial burdens are low but trending higher despite the first quarter decline resulting from surging incomes. The financial obligations ratio fell 11 basis points to 15.75% in the first quarter from its slightly revised fourth quarter level. It was down 2 basis points over the preceding year. The debt service ratio fell 7 basis points to 10.21% and is also down 2 basis points over the last year. Both the consumer debt service ratio and the mortgage ratio declined. Growth in obligations slowed in the quarter likely because of faster income growth. The jump in income was partially because of reporting issues.
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Jul 02, 2018
Global businesses remain upbeat, with sentiment consistent with a global economy that is expanding above its potential. Sales and hiring are strong, and pricing is firm. Heightened global trade tensions and volatile global financial markets have had little impact on confidence. The only blemish in the survey is with regard to expectations about business prospects toward the end of the year.
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