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Jan 11, 2019
The California Composite Index, measuring overall manufacturing activity, decreased from 65 in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 61.2 in the first quarter of 2019. California manufacturers are still expecting economic expansion, but at a slowing rate. The production, employment, new orders and commodity price components all decreased in the first quarter.
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Jan 08, 2019
Household financial burdens are low and inching lower. The financial obligations ratio fell 3 basis points to 15.29% in the third quarter. It was down 21 basis points over the preceding year, with the drop amplified by the jump in disposable income cause by tax cuts in the first quarter. The debt service ratio fell 2 basis points to 9.82% from its prior level to a record low. It is down 15 basis points over the last year. The drop came from the mortgage ratio. The consumer debt service ratio was unchanged.
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Nov 27, 2018
The Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate declined 11 basis points to 4.24% in October. The decrease stemmed largely from the resolution of delinquent hotel loans. Improvement was broad-based since all five core property types and four regional delinquency rates fell. Meanwhile, resolutions outweighed newly delinquent loans, decreasing the balance of delinquent CMBS conduit loans.
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Nov 26, 2018
Global business confidence slumped last week, probably due in part to a low response rate to the survey given the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. However, even abstracting from the response rate, sentiment, while still strong, has been steadily falling from the highs set early in the year. The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China and the selloff in global stock markets appear to be weighing on sentiment. This is most evident in the weakening in expectations regarding future business conditions and investment intentions.
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Nov 14, 2018
Global consumer prices are moderating slightly, but inflation is picking up in developed economies. The global CPI rose 0.5% in October following a revised 0.8% gain in September (previously 0.9%). The CPI for developed economies accelerated to 0.3%, following a 0.1% gain in the prior month. Conversely, the CPI for developing economies decelerated slightly to a 0.7% increase in October following a 1.3% surge in September. In all, global CPI is up 5.4% on a year-ago basis.
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Nov 12, 2018
Consumer household credit lending reported its seventh consecutive month of growth, at 0.31%, or $41 billion. First mortgage, student loans and auto lending contributed to this growth, while all other lending categories saw a decrease in balances this month. Delinquencies dropped by 4 basis points for all lending categories combined, yet every lending category except the mortgage borrowing categories experienced an uptick in delinquency rates.
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Oct 31, 2018
Not surprisingly, the odds that the U.S. will be in recession in the next six months are low. Recessions normally occur when imbalances develop in the economy, and no glaring potential macroeconomic imbalances are forming. The economy's balance sheet is in good shape, and the tighter labor market isn't putting significant upward pressure on wages or inflation. The economy is on an adrenaline rush from the fiscal stimulus and monetary policy, financial market conditions are supportive, and monetary policy is somewhat accommodative. The probability that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in six months inched higher, from 10% to 11% in September.
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Oct 25, 2018
The inventory build ended the third quarter with another strong gain. According to the advance estimate, wholesale stockpiles rose 0.3% in September, following a revised 1% surge in August (previously a 0.8% increase in the advance estimate). Retailers were not far behind with a 0.1% increase. Auto inventories rose 0.3%, while retailers excluding autos declined 0.1%.
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