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Nov 14, 2018
Global consumer prices are moderating slightly, but inflation is picking up in developed economies. The global CPI rose 0.5% in October following a revised 0.8% gain in September (previously 0.9%). The CPI for developed economies accelerated to 0.3%, following a 0.1% gain in the prior month. Conversely, the CPI for developing economies decelerated slightly to a 0.7% increase in October following a 1.3% surge in September. In all, global CPI is up 5.4% on a year-ago basis.
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Nov 12, 2018
Consumer household credit lending reported its seventh consecutive month of growth, at 0.31%, or $41 billion. First mortgage, student loans and auto lending contributed to this growth, while all other lending categories saw a decrease in balances this month. Delinquencies dropped by 4 basis points for all lending categories combined, yet every lending category except the mortgage borrowing categories experienced an uptick in delinquency rates.
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Oct 31, 2018
Not surprisingly, the odds that the U.S. will be in recession in the next six months are low. Recessions normally occur when imbalances develop in the economy, and no glaring potential macroeconomic imbalances are forming. The economy's balance sheet is in good shape, and the tighter labor market isn't putting significant upward pressure on wages or inflation. The economy is on an adrenaline rush from the fiscal stimulus and monetary policy, financial market conditions are supportive, and monetary policy is somewhat accommodative. The probability that the U.S. economy will fall into recession in six months inched higher, from 10% to 11% in September.
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Oct 25, 2018
The inventory build ended the third quarter with another strong gain. According to the advance estimate, wholesale stockpiles rose 0.3% in September, following a revised 1% surge in August (previously a 0.8% increase in the advance estimate). Retailers were not far behind with a 0.1% increase. Auto inventories rose 0.3%, while retailers excluding autos declined 0.1%.
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Sep 28, 2018
Household financial burdens are low and revised data show them trending lower. The financial obligations ratio fell 2 basis points to 15.31% in the second quarter from its revised first quarter level. It was down 22 basis points over the preceding year, with the drop amplified by the jump in disposable income caused by tax cuts in the first quarter. The debt service ratio also fell 2 basis points to 9.84% from its revised level to match its record low and is down 14 basis points over the last year. Both the consumer debt service ratio and the mortgage ratio declined 1 basis point. Historic data were subject to large downward revisions, likely from the inclusion of revised disposable income data.
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Sep 17, 2018
Global businesses remain upbeat, as sales and pricing remain strong. However, the global trade war appears to be doing some damage to sentiment, particularly to expectations of business conditions into next year, which are about as low as they have been at any time during the current expansion. Asian businesses are the most nervous, followed by European companies.
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Sep 07, 2018
The Quarterly Services Survey report bodes well for revisions to second quarter consumer spending. U.S. selected services' total revenue for the first quarter was up 5.3% from a year earlier on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Information services revenue rose 8.5%, professional services grew slightly by 5.2%, and administrative services gained 5.5% on a year-ago basis.
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Sep 04, 2018
The Moody's Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate fell 21 basis points to 4.73% in July. The decline stemmed mainly from the continued resolution of delinquent loans from the 2006 and 2007 vintages. All five property types and four regional delinquency rates decreased this month. The balance of delinquent CMBS conduit loans decreased this month since resolutions outweighed newly delinquent loans.
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