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May 22, 2023
Global businesses can't shake the pall they've been under since the pandemic hit three years ago. The Russian war in Ukraine hasn't helped, and the recent banking crisis in the U.S. and Europe has been a further concern. Businesses remain most dour in their responses to the broader questions regarding general business conditions, and most upbeat in their responses to hiring and investment. Sentiment is consistent with a global economy that continues to just skirt recession.
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May 15, 2023
Net inflows totaled $133.3 billion in March following net inflows of $56.6 billion in February. Foreign residents increased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities by $110.5 billion. Official foreign investors increased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities by $47 billion in March while private foreign investors increased their holdings by $63.5 billion. Meanwhile, U.S. investors contributed to capital inflows in March, with net sales of long-term foreign securities totaling $22.8 billion.
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May 15, 2023
New-vehicle affordability continues to improve. The number of weeks of the U.S. median household income it takes to purchase a new vehicle declined further to 42.9, a decrease of 0.3 week from March 2023. Rising interest rates and increased car production are playing a leading role in new-vehicle affordability.
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May 15, 2023
Global growth was estimated at 1.3% in quarterly annualized terms in the final quarter of 2022. This marked a significant slowdown from the third quarter, when output rose 4% annualized. Developing economies' GDP slowed sharply to 1.7% from 6.5%, but growth in developed economies also eased to 1% from 1.9%. At the regional level, the worst news came from Europe, where GDP ground to a halt. But activity also slowed sharply in Asia and in the Americas. While disappointing, this global loss of momentum wasn't unexpected. The global economy has taken a hit from high inflation, elevated interest rates, and subdued confidence; unfortunately, we expect this will remain the story for most of 2023.
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May 12, 2023
U.S. import prices surprised slightly to the upside. Import prices rose 0.4% in April after a revised 0.8% decline in the prior month (previously a 0.6% decline). We and the consensus had penciled in a 0.3% increase. Import fuel prices climbed 4.5%, marking the first monthly increase since June. Nonfuel import prices were unchanged after falling 0.5% in the prior month. Higher prices for consumer goods and foods, feeds and beverages offset price declines for industrial supplies and materials and capital goods. On a year-ago basis, total import prices were down 4.8% while nonfuel prices, which matter for consumer prices, dropped 1.9%.
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May 09, 2023
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped again in April, falling 1.1 points. At 89, April's reading marks the 16th consecutive month in which the index sits below the 49-year average of 98. Main Street continues to struggle with high inflation and labor shortages, though the recent turmoil in the banking system has shaken confidence. As a result, the share of owners expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months remains firmly negative. Hiring plans remain elevated, though employers are struggling to find qualified applicants. Credit conditions remain unfavorable as banks have tightened lending standards in light of recent bank failures. The majority of businesses are finding it more difficult to get a new loan compared with their previous one.
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May 05, 2023
According to the recently published preliminary March data, the stock of consumer credit outstanding expanded by $26.5 billion month on month, far outstripping the consensus expectation of a $16.5 billion increase. The sizable increase was driven by a $17.6 billion uptick in revolving credit. Nonrevolving balances expanded $8.9 billion from the previous month.
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May 05, 2023
Consumer finances remain strong, but they are being undermined by high inflation, increased borrowing, and exhausted excess saving for at least some. Hence, bankruptcy filings are showing a deterioration in household finances. A first-quarter increase in filings is seasonally normal, but this year's increase was the largest since 2001. U.S. Courts reported that nonbusiness filings came in 16.4% above their year-ago level after rising 4% in the prior quarter. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, filings rose 12.6%. Business filings also surged, jumping 15.5% from the fourth quarter. They were up 32.6% from a year earlier, compared with an 11.4% increase in the prior quarter.
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May 05, 2023
April's Labour Force Survey provides mixed signals on the strength of the Canadian labor market. While the unemployment rate continues to hover near its all-time low—unchanged for four months now—most employment gains are concentrated in part-time roles. Lower-wage fields such as wholesale and retail, education, and culture/recreation dominated job gains, while higher-paying fields such as professional services and finance/insurance shed workers.
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May 04, 2023
Canada's merchandise exports slipped by a light 0.7% in March after falling by a stronger 2.4% in February. Meanwhile, March imports declined by 2.9% following a decrease of 1.3% in January. Canada's merchandise trade balance with the world moved from a revised deficit of C$487 million in February to a C$972 million surplus in March.
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May 04, 2023
An increase in exports and decrease in imports led to a narrowing in the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in March, falling to $64.2 billion from $70.6 billion in February. The goods deficit fell by $6.4 billion, while the services surplus was essentially unchanged. The majority of the improvement in the trade balance was because of increased exports of industrial supplies, much of it crude oil. Imports of capital goods and industrial supplies both declined but were partly offset by increased imports of consumer goods.
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May 01, 2023
Based on new data published by the Semiconductor Industry Association, global semiconductor sales in the first quarter of this year amounted to $119.5 billion. This represents an 8.7% decrease from the previous quarter and a drop of 21.3% from the same period in 2022. In positive news, March experienced a 0.3% increase in sales from the preceding month. This also reflects the first month-on-month increase in global chip sales since May 2022.
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Mar 23, 2023
Household financial burdens were little changed in the fourth quarter as income growth accelerated and gains in debt payments and obligations slowed modestly. Burdens remain extremely low by historic standards, though they are approaching levels seen prior to the pandemic. The financial obligations ratio fell 2 basis points to 14.39%. The third quarter was revised down from 14.49% to 14.41% largely because of upward revisions to income. The debt service ratio rose 1 basis point to 9.7% from its prior level, which was revised down from 9.75% to 9.69%. Rounded, neither the mortgage debt service ratio nor the consumer ratio changed from their revised third-quarter levels.
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Mar 23, 2023
The market for new homes has found a floor. New-home sales in February increased by 1.1% from the prior month to 640,000 annualized units. Sales are 19% below their year-ago level when ultra-low interest rates were juicing strong demand. February's inventory of new homes for sale was largely unchanged from the previous month at 436,000, which represents 8.2 months' supply at the current rate of sales. The median price for a new home was up more than 2% from a year earlier, but this does not account for the mix of homes sold.
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Mar 16, 2023
The Moody's Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate inched up 1 basis point to 4.23% in February. This is the third consecutive month in which the delinquency rate has increased. New office delinquencies contributed the most to February's increase. The property type and regional delinquency rates were mixed.
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