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Mar 06, 2019
The nominal trade deficit widened to its highest level in a decade in December as the softening global economy and ongoing trade war took a toll. Net exports fell $9.5 billion from November, placing the goods and services deficit at $59.8 billion. The goods deficit increased $9 billion, while the services surplus declined $483 million. Total nominal exports fell 1.9% from November, while total nominal imports increased 2.1%.
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Mar 04, 2019
U.S. construction spending declined 0.6% in December, falling well below the consensus estimate of a 0.2% increase. Residential spending drove the decrease in total construction spending, falling 1.4%. Total public construction also fell 0.6%. Of the largest components, public spending decreased the most in healthcare, highway and street, and sewage and waste disposal construction. Private construction spending also decreased by 0.6% but finished the year up 0.8%. Despite the pullback, total construction spending remains elevated and is 1.6% higher than its December 2017 level.
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Mar 04, 2019
Despite a sixth consecutive decline in the top-line current business conditions index, New York City purchasing managers provided plenty of reason for hope in February. Although the current conditions index in the ISM-New York Report on Business fell from 63.4 to 61.1, its components generally moved in a positive direction, with demand and labor indicators rising and growth in prices paid slowing. The six-month outlook surged back to its fall 2018 levels in rising more than 13 points to 71.5, but expected demand cooled a bit.
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Mar 01, 2019
U.S. inflation continues to flirt with the Federal Reserve's 2% objective but this isn't sufficient to quiet the central bank's dovish tone. Inflation will need to accelerate and inflation expectations move higher for the Fed to considering raising interest rates and this is unlikely to occur soon. The headline PCE deflator rose 0.1% in December, a little stronger than our forecast. Excluding food and energy, the PCE deflator was up 0.2%, in line with our forecast. On a year-ago basis, the headline and core PCE deflators rose 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively. Overall, we see the risks of inflation falling below the Fed's objective in the first half of next year as high. Therefore, our subjective odds for a rate hike in the first half of this year has fallen recently.
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Mar 01, 2019
Canadian GDP took another small step back in December. GDP dipped 0.1% in December, following an identical decline in the previous month. Output fell in 13 of 20 industries. Goods producers fell 0.7%, while services producers ticked 0.2% higher.
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Feb 28, 2019
The agricultural prices received index started the year off on the wrong foot, falling 4.5% in January due to a sharp decline in the crop production index. At 84.9, the prices received index is down 0.7% from a year earlier. The crop production index declined 10.8% in January and is down 1.7% from a year earlier. The livestock production index increased 6.4%, putting it 3.6% above the level in January 2018.
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Feb 28, 2019
The homeownership rate continues to move up, coming in at 64.8% in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared with 64.4% in the third quarter. Although quarterly changes have generally not been statistically significant, the underlying trend over the last two years has been a clear recovery from the historical decline that occurred in the decade through 2016. The rental vacancy rate ticked down to 6.6% from 7.1% in the third quarter, and the homeowner vacancy rate ticked down to 1.5% from 1.6%.
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Feb 28, 2019
The industrial product price index fell in January for a third consecutive month. The index was 0.3% lower, mainly because of lower prices for energy and petroleum products. Of the 21 major commodity groups, 12 were lower. The raw materials price index rose 3.8%, driven largely by crude energy product prices.
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Feb 27, 2019
Stockpiles expanded at the end of the fourth quarter. According to the advance estimate, wholesale stockpiles rose 1.1% in December after a revised 0.4% gain in November. Retailers advanced 0.9% following a 0.4% decline in November. Auto inventories rose 0.7%, while retailers excluding autos rose 1%.
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Feb 26, 2019
Consumer confidence rebounded in February, rising to 131.4, a three-month high, gaining 9.7 points over the January report on top of a 1.5-point upward revision. Present conditions were viewed more favorably, gaining 3.3 points over a modest upward revision, improving to 173.5, a post-2000 record. Consumers also shook off the pessimism in expectations, with that index rising 14 points after last month's drop, rising to 103.4.
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Feb 26, 2019
Existing-home price appreciation slowed in the three months to December compared with the same period in November, reinforcing the decelerating trend that has been ongoing since spring 2018. Year-ago growth in the 20-city composite index fell to 4.2% in December, down from 4.6% in November. Year-ago growth in the 10-city composite index decreased to 3.8% in the three months ending in December, down from 4.2% in the three months to November. Growth in the national house price index dropped to 4.7% in December, below the 5.1% pace of appreciation in November.
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Feb 25, 2019
Texas factory activity continued to rise in February. Although the pace of current production decelerated, respondents' outlooks for both their own companies and the economy as a whole brightened. Uncertainty over near-term prospects diminished significantly. Expectations for growth six months from now remained optimistic.
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Jan 31, 2019
New single-family home sales jumped up in November, increasing 16.9% on a monthly basis. Sales came in well above Moody's Analytics and consensus forecast expectations. Even so, totals are still 7.7% below year-ago levels. Sales increased in all census regions but the West in November. Additionally, the median new-home price fell this month and remains well below year-ago levels.
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Jan 30, 2019
The Canadian labor market improved slightly in November. Average weekly earnings of nonfarm employees rose 0.3% to C$1,012, and year-ago growth slowed to 2%. The number of nonfarm employees rose 8,600 from October. The average workweek ticked up to 32.8 hours.
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Jan 11, 2019
The California Composite Index, measuring overall manufacturing activity, decreased from 65 in the fourth quarter of 2018 to 61.2 in the first quarter of 2019. California manufacturers are still expecting economic expansion, but at a slowing rate. The production, employment, new orders and commodity price components all decreased in the first quarter.
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Jan 08, 2019
Household financial burdens are low and inching lower. The financial obligations ratio fell 3 basis points to 15.29% in the third quarter. It was down 21 basis points over the preceding year, with the drop amplified by the jump in disposable income cause by tax cuts in the first quarter. The debt service ratio fell 2 basis points to 9.82% from its prior level to a record low. It is down 15 basis points over the last year. The drop came from the mortgage ratio. The consumer debt service ratio was unchanged.
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Nov 27, 2018
The Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate declined 11 basis points to 4.24% in October. The decrease stemmed largely from the resolution of delinquent hotel loans. Improvement was broad-based since all five core property types and four regional delinquency rates fell. Meanwhile, resolutions outweighed newly delinquent loans, decreasing the balance of delinquent CMBS conduit loans.
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Nov 26, 2018
Global business confidence slumped last week, probably due in part to a low response rate to the survey given the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. However, even abstracting from the response rate, sentiment, while still strong, has been steadily falling from the highs set early in the year. The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China and the selloff in global stock markets appear to be weighing on sentiment. This is most evident in the weakening in expectations regarding future business conditions and investment intentions.
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Nov 14, 2018
Global consumer prices are moderating slightly, but inflation is picking up in developed economies. The global CPI rose 0.5% in October following a revised 0.8% gain in September (previously 0.9%). The CPI for developed economies accelerated to 0.3%, following a 0.1% gain in the prior month. Conversely, the CPI for developing economies decelerated slightly to a 0.7% increase in October following a 1.3% surge in September. In all, global CPI is up 5.4% on a year-ago basis.
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Nov 12, 2018
Consumer household credit lending reported its seventh consecutive month of growth, at 0.31%, or $41 billion. First mortgage, student loans and auto lending contributed to this growth, while all other lending categories saw a decrease in balances this month. Delinquencies dropped by 4 basis points for all lending categories combined, yet every lending category except the mortgage borrowing categories experienced an uptick in delinquency rates.
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