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Jun 06, 2018
A surprise increase in crude oil inventories will apply downward pressure on prices. Commercial crude oil inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels in the week ended June 1, going against analyst predictions of a 2.2 million-barrel decline. Gasoline inventories rose by 4.6 million barrels, much more than analyst expectations of a 161,000-barrel increase. Distillate inventories rose by 2.2 million barrels, also well above analyst predictions of a 564,000-barrel build. Refinery capacity utilization rose to 95.4% from 93.9%, beating analyst expectations of a 0.3-percentage point increase. Total U.S. oil demand was 0.2% higher than a year earlier.
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Jun 06, 2018
Mortgage applications are up again following several weeks of decline. All interest rates covered in the MBA survey were down. The total index was up 4.1% from the prior week. Refinancing rose by 3.8%, while purchases increased by 4.2%.
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Jun 05, 2018
U.S. economic policy uncertainty is easing but remains elevated. Fiscal policy is the primary culprit, but monetary policy is also a factor. The good news is that the economic costs of elevated policy uncertainty have been minimal. Still, if policy uncertainty were to rise significantly, it shouldn't be ignored, because it could weigh on financial market conditions and hurt business investment. The four-week moving average in our U.S. policy uncertainty index slipped from 121.8 to 119.2 in the week ended June 1.
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May 21, 2018
Total U.S. household borrowing grew by 3.61% year-over-year in April, down slightly from 3.62% in March. Outstanding household debt increased by $54 billion or 5.32%. Individual lending categories were mixed. Borrowing for student loans and retail cards were down, but first mortgages and autos bounced back from a slow March. Total dollar delinquencies decreased to 2.26%, down from 2.48% last month. Annualized write-offs and bankruptcies rose to 1.33% of dollars outstanding.
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May 10, 2018
The weakness in global consumer prices in April proved to be a fluke. The Moody's Analytics Global Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% after revisions showed it being unchanged in March (previously 0.1%). The CPI for developed economies rose 0.2% in April, more than reversing the 0.1% decline in March. The CPI for developing economies was up 0.4% in April. On a year-ago basis, the global CPI rose 3.3% in April, matching the gain in March. Looking ahead, unless global oil prices quickly reverse course, growth in consumer prices will accelerate more than we previously anticipated.
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Apr 30, 2018
The first quarter ended on a high note. The three-month moving average of global sales expanded 0.7% from February to $37.0 billion in March. This marks a 20% increase from a year earlier. March brings the first quarter to a close, and, though sales in the first quarter of 2018 were down 2.5% from the fourth quarter of 2017, they were up a solid 20% from the first quarter of 2017. Demand for semiconductors remains elevated and near-term prospects are good.
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Apr 26, 2018
Wholesale inventories logged another solid gain in March, but retail inventories are retrenching. According to the advance estimate, wholesale stockpiles increased 0.5%, following February's 1% surge. Meanwhile, retailers saw a 0.4% stockpile decline. Weakness was broad-based: auto inventories fell 1%, while retailers excluding autos lost 0.1%.
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Apr 26, 2018
Personal bankruptcy filings increased in the first quarter, following their normal seasonal pattern, and supported by increased credit usage. Filings rose less than last year from the fourth calendar quarter and come in 4.7% below their year ago level, the biggest year-over-year decline in five quarters. Business filings fell modestly. They came in 0.9% below their year-ago level after rising on a year-ago basis in the fourth quarter.
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Apr 23, 2018
Global business confidence remains very strong, and close to the record high set in spring 2015. Talk of higher U.S. tariffs, global trade wars, and wild swings in global stock markets have had no discernible impact on sentiment. Responses to all nine questions in the survey are upbeat, and overall confidence is consistent with a global economy that is growing firmly above its potential.
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Apr 23, 2018
The Moody's Delinquency Tracker total delinquency rate jumped down 21 basis points in March, to 5.53%. The decline stemmed largely from the resolution of delinquent industrial and retail loans. The West, Midwest, and Northeast regional delinquency rates fell this month, with only the South's delinquency rate increasing. Additionally, the total balance of CMBS conduit loans decreased in March, since payoffs and dispositions outweighed new issuance.
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Apr 20, 2018
U.S. economic performance remains strong and the outlook is bright for the quarters ahead. In the week ending April 13, the ECRI weekly leading index increased to 148.9 from 147.8. The WLIg, the headline figure's smoothed, annualized growth rate, ticked down to 3.2% from 3.5%.
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Apr 19, 2018
Working gas in underground storage fell by 36 billion cubic feet during the week ended April 13, greatly exceeding expectations of an 11 bcf decline. This report will boost natural gas prices.
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Apr 19, 2018
Financial market stress eased for the first time in four weeks as trade tensions between the U.S. and China eased. The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index declined to -0.97. The S&P 500 rose 2% and volatility fell. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose 5 basis points to 2.82%. Measures of credit risk also improved, helping to ease financial conditions.
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Apr 19, 2018
The U.S. labor market continues to tighten. Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits fell 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level to 232,000 in the week ended April 14. The four-week moving average rose 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average to 231,250. Continuing claims fell 15,000 from the previous week's revised level to 1.863 million in the week ended April 7, and the insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.3%. The incoming data include the April payroll reference week, and new filings point toward another solid showing.
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