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Recession odds were the topic du jour Monday as stocks kicked off the week with a wobbly, uneven session.
Over the weekend, former Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein told CBS' Face the Nation that recession was "a very, very high risk factor." That opinion was met by a number of other calls Monday morning.
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Wells Fargo Investment Institute, for instance, says "our conviction is that the chances of an outright recession in 2022 remain low" but believes odds are growing that 2023 could see an economic contraction. UBS strategists say the chances are different depending on where you look - their global economists say "hard data" points to a sub-1% chance of recession over the next 12 months, but the yield curve implies 32% odds.
"There's no crystal ball to predict what's next, but historical trends can come into play here. With the [S&P 500] closing 15% below its weekly record, there's only been two times in the past 60 years that the market didn't fall into bear territory after a similar drop," adds Chris Larkin, Managing Director of Trading at E*Trade. "This doesn't mean it's bound to happen, but there is room for potential downside.
Larkin says to keep an eye on major retail earnings this week - which will kick off in earnest with Walmart's Tuesday report - to get a pulse check on the American consumer.
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Monday itself was a fairly quiet affair. Exxon Mobi
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 U.S. stocks closed mixed Monday, with equities losing steam in the final 15 minutes of trade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 27 points, or 0.1%, to end near 32,224, after trading almost 300 points higher earlier in the session, according to FactSet data. The S&P 500 index shed 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 1.2%, as investors focused on inflation, recession concerns and a string of disappointing economic data in the U.S., Europe and China. The New York Fed's Empire State business conditions index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state, plummeted 36.2 points to negative 11.6 in May. Treasury yields also slumped on Monday as investors flocked to the debt for safety, with the 10-year rate down 5.5 basis points at 2.877%, off a high of 3.124% earlier in May. Bond prices and yields move in the opposite direction.
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