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 Topic: MediaPoliticsThe NYT "Needle" in 2016
The 2020 election showed that doing live reporting on election counts when the order of counting has a bias is misleading and emotionally draining. Of course, there is no actual "race" with totals moving back and forth, one candidate in the lead and then another. That's just an illusion created by the bias in the order. The result is actually a fixed fact after the polls close, and we're just uncovering different parts as time goes by.
It's a bit like scratching off a lottery card. The final result of the card is fixed, you just get some drama revealing bits of it at a time.
The press get good ratings and we can't stop them from reporting this, even when they know the reports are misleading. But instead of one number, there's really two numbers to show from partial results:
The best estimate of the final number based on your models and what data you have
The amount of uncertainty in that estimate (which you might show as a scalar, or as a distribution.)
As we know, Trump even worked to exploit that lie, known as the red mirage, to call the election into question. It's serious stuff.
This particular time, we the following large biases.
In person votes were usually counted before
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IN THE annals of modern American economic policymaking, among the most revered pieces of legislation is the Tax Reform Act of 1986. During the three decades since its passage, Democrats and Republicans alike have hailed the law not only for overhauling the country''s tax system, which Jimmy Carter famously called 'a disgrace to the human race', but also for doing so with bipartisan support in both houses of Congress. As Republicans embark on yet another sweeping rewrite of the tax code, many point to the 1986 effort as a model to emulate. It was 'really something special', Donald Trump said in August. However, admirers of America''s last comprehensive revision of its tax code should be disappointed with the GOP''s current attempts.The bill that passed in 1986 took a long, arduous path to President Ronald Reagan''s desk. Originating out of a three-volume report by the Treasury department, it faced numerous brushes with death, and took more than two years to wind its way through Congress. The process included full committee hearings, markups and deliberations. The final bill eliminated many deductions, credits and exemptions that favoured some taxpayers over others. This generated new revenues, which were then used to reduce tax rates, mainly for low and middle-income individuals. The bill did ...
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