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Business | Bally's Wins One of NYC's Casino Licenses - A $115M Windfall for Trump Organization GoLocalProvSteve Cohen Wins Approval for Casino Near Mets Stadium The Wall Street JournalNYC casinos: New York Gaming Board votes to recommend 3 new casino licenses in the Bronx, Queens ABC7 New YorkGaming Board Recommends All 3 Bids for New York City Casino Licenses The New York Times
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Thousands Greet Pope Leo as He Prays Near Site of Beirut Port Blast The New York TimesBeirut blast led some to leave Lebanon, now Maronite Catholics say pope's visit brings hope NBC NewsPope in Lebanon asks for ‘divine gift of peace' alongside country's Christian and Muslim leaders PoliticoLove without fear, pope tells Lebanese church workers usccb
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I watched scientists track interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS leaving the solar system in real-time: 'This is some prime-time science' SpaceWhat to know about the 3I/ATLAS comet and why people keep talking about aliens : Short Wave NPRUpdates on the Non-gravitational Acceleration of 3I/ATLAS Avi Loeb - Medium3I/ATLAS to make its closest approach to Earth in December. Here's the latest USA Today
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Winter storm barrels into the Northeast, dropping heavy snow CNNLarge Winter Storm Brings Snow and Ice to Northeast and Mid-Atlantic The New York TimesUS north-east braces for ‘significant' snowfall after storm hits midwest The GuardianMore than 50 million on alert for snow and ice from Kentucky to Maine ABC News
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Bitcoin is bouncing Tuesday, while Vanguard for the first time starts letting clients buy crypto exchange-traded funds managed by third parties.
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Trump's impact is debated in Honduras, where conservatives lead the presidential vote tallies PoliticoHonduras election: presidential candidates locked in 'technical tie', official says BBCTrump Alleges Fraud, Without Evidence, in Honduras Election The New York TimesVote count under way in Honduras to elect new president in a close race after Trump's intervention AP News
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 Topic: MediaPoliticsThe NYT "Needle" in 2016
The 2020 election showed that doing live reporting on election counts when the order of counting has a bias is misleading and emotionally draining. Of course, there is no actual "race" with totals moving back and forth, one candidate in the lead and then another. That's just an illusion created by the bias in the order. The result is actually a fixed fact after the polls close, and we're just uncovering different parts as time goes by.
It's a bit like scratching off a lottery card. The final result of the card is fixed, you just get some drama revealing bits of it at a time.
The press get good ratings and we can't stop them from reporting this, even when they know the reports are misleading. But instead of one number, there's really two numbers to show from partial results:
The best estimate of the final number based on your models and what data you have
The amount of uncertainty in that estimate (which you might show as a scalar, or as a distribution.)
As we know, Trump even worked to exploit that lie, known as the red mirage, to call the election into question. It's serious stuff.
This particular time, we the following large biases.
In person votes were usually counted before
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